NFL Week 18 Picks with Cynthia Frelund | Capitalizing on Teams Resting Starters

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0:44Cynthia Frelund:Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax and enjoy the game. Shop in store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL. You know how it's never really about where you're going. It's about who you're going with. The right people can turn any drive into a great memory. That's something Toyota really believes. They design vehicles around real life and real people. The ones who make plans happen and bring everyone together. Inside, everything's built with passengers in mind. Comfortable seating, smart layouts, and space that actually works so everyone can relax and enjoy the ride.

1:22There's room for the people, room for the stuff, and room for the moments that happen along the way. Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn more at Toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people.

1:37Cynthia Frelund:Hey guys, it's Aaron Andrews. Breasts get so much attention, but they're still so ignored when it matters most. Everything these days is fighting for your attention. We've got work, family, social media, making it tough to figure out what to prioritize. I got something that should always be at the very top of the list, your breast health. If you're 40 and over, you should be getting screened once a year. And if you're under 40, it's never too soon to visit yourattentionplease.com to learn about breast cancer risk. Trust me, your future self will thank you.

2:15Welcome to NFL Daily, where all good things must come to an end. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan Podcast. And I'm not referring to 2025. Happy New Year, by the way, to everyone listening. I'm not talking even about this pick show because we're going straight through the playoffs. I'm talking about what was the greatest streak in sports. I had 12 straight winning weeks on this show, picking only three games a week against the spread. And it all came crashing down at the hands of Kirk Cousins and Bajon Robinson and that Falcons team. So I went one and two. still very happy 32 and 19 on the season.

2:51And most importantly, Cynthia is coming off an undefeated week. There we go. You're going to be hot going into the playoffs. Welcome Cynthia Freeland. Thanks. You ready for a final week? This is, I think a week trickster week. I think it's a week of opportunity. I'm glad the NFL does not let us actually pick these games and put our money behind it. But I do think it's a week where you kind of can understand the motivations of different teams and take advantage of some crazy lines. It's a very difficult week for Vegas to set these lines. Wouldn't you agree?

3:27Cynthia Frelund:I mean, yeah, but those buildings are much bigger than anything. And my brain than anything we have. Well, this building is beautiful, but we don't own it. So, you know, yeah, no, I just think it's it's a wonky week because even if someone's playing, does that mean they're playing the full game? Does it mean they're playing for the first quarter? Right. I mean, once they see certain things, I don't know. So you just have to be mindful of what you're doing. Don't be a DG. So I think at the end, I might even run through where we're at now, like where I think if people are curious who's resting, who's not.

3:59But why don't we go through our three picks each? Because we'll naturally hit upon some of these situations. Now, last week, if I was a spiteful man, I could remember that. Remember, I was deciding between two games and you took the Patriots away from me. and then they were up 21-0 in about seven minutes, and I was thinking, ooh, that would have been an easy minute, and then I got my L. So I'm giving you the first pick here, Cynthia, despite that small little problem that I had with you last week.

4:27Cynthia Frelund:You could have taken it. I could have. I regret it. No one's saying that you're not allowed. We can double up. We can double up. Right. I did not say you couldn't take it. No, I'm hitting out, and I'm not taking responsibility. That's a bad job I mean. Okay. You go first. All right, great. I want to look at, I think, that the Denver and the Chargers. I think Denver, it's a lofty number at 12 and a half. But the Broncos, they want to secure the one. I'm looking for people who have something to play for. And Denver has the thing to play for is the fact that they get the one seed if they win. Period.

5:07Cynthia Frelund:Full stop. Yep. I mean, they also get it if, like, two other teams lose. Like if the Jags and the Jags, but like, let's not rely on that, especially now that we know that the chargers, they are not playing their starters. It's going to be Trey Lance, no shade on Trey Lance, but I believe that this is a Denver defense and a Denver offense. That's going to be looking ahead and saying, all right, we need to get on track, really show like get good reps because conceivably next week would be their rest. So I don't think it's two weeks of rest for these guys. You know, the rust starts to come in there.

5:38I think it could be a three-hour celebration. I'm totally with you. I like a lot of games this week, so I might throw an extra one in at the end, but I think learning my lesson from last week, I'm just going to go with you on Denver and Chargers too because that is definitely one of my top two. I have two I really like. Yeah, same. I don't have that for me that I really like. It's similar in terms of motivation, and we had a situation last season that was almost identical to this. Now, Denver needed to win in week 18 to get into the playoffs. But do you remember who they faced off against in week 18?

6:13It was the Kansas City Chiefs who were resting. The final score was 38 to nothing. And I just think Sean Payton coming off of a couple wonky weeks, to use a word that you used on this week's game debut. Everyone check us out on NFL Network. It's going to be playing all week, Friday night, Saturday morning. You can also find that on YouTube. They just call it Game Picks. You can also find Cynthia Freeland on YouTube. I always say go subscribe to her channel and check out Numbers Game. I just think this is a team in Denver that is going to swarm. This was going to be a difficult matchup for the Chargers anyways because of their offensive line.

6:55And the Broncos are looking for that team sack record. They're wanting to pad their numbers. There's incentives. I think teams just love a situation like this. and I think it could be incredibly one-way traffic where it's like 24 to nothing at halftime or something like that. All right, so we agree on Denver. We have the same first pick each. We haven't done that a lot this season, but in this weird week, I don't want to get too cute. What is your second pick?

7:21Cynthia Frelund:I'll let you go first because I can't remember. I mean, I remember who you have winning. I know where we're different, but I can't remember which one you kind of liked the most. Okay, the other one that I liked the most, as we're taping this, we're not confirmed, but logically again i think the viking packers are a situation that that people who are into this sort of thing can take advantage of we have it at six and a half right now for the vikings they are favored by that much because the line is assuming that the packers are not going to play their starters matt lafleur has said it without saying like i believe what he said was he's not going to tell yes he's keeping it close to the vest but early in the week that means yeah not playing yes they're locked into the seven seed why why they can't they can't do anything but harm their chances by getting someone hurt and they have a lot of banged up important players jacobs jordan love certainly some of the key defenders on defense you can only sit so many i get all that the big thing for me is we might not know until game time who's starting at quarterback but I feel pretty good that it's going to be Clayton Toon, not Malik Willis.

8:28Because to me, if you're putting out your backups and not really trying to win this game, you might as well go whole hog and keep your backup quarterback healthy because you don't know what's up with Jordan Love. He's coming off of a concussion. Malik Willis also has an injury right now.

8:43Cynthia Frelund:Yep, his is a shoulder, not a concussion. And Minnesota's defense, let's be real, is playing better than any defense in the entire league. If the Packers were playing all their starters, and it sounds like J.J. McCarthy might come back, which I think is an upgrade for them over Max Brosmer. Don't you think Minnesota would have a chance to win this game straight up anyways at home, the home field advantage, like against the Packers starters? I kind of think I would take the Vikings in this game the way these two teams are playing. So all of that is to say, I love just six and a half points. I think they win by a lot.

9:14Cynthia Frelund:I mean, I feel like this one could be six of one, half a dozen of another. I agree with everything that you said, but I feel like something stupid could happen too because none of this stuff matters. So something stupid where Packers pick six with some corner that hasn't played a top, whatever. I just feel like, I don't know. A lot of these games, I feel like a lot of stupid stuff could happen. Obviously, I'm influenced by the Christmas Day game, but the crowd was so amped for that game. And it's a division matchup. And what really is selling me is some of the soft stuff you can't put into the model.

9:49Fair. It was Harrison Smith after the game saying, I've never been a part of a better performance than this. And if you go look at what they've done the last eight weeks, something like that, they haven't given up a passing touchdown. He said this defense, which is an older group, maybe Brian Flores is leaving. Maybe Harrison Smith is leaving. It's a lot of guys who have been there together and they're having fun playing ball right now. This feels kind of like a last fun, like what could be more fun than just beating down on an overmatched Packers team? I just, it just makes a lot of sense.

10:20Cynthia Frelund:I'm with you. I'm with you, but it's just not one of my favorite ones. Okay. What's your second pick? The Rams. Okay. Sean McVay says that the starters will at least play. I think he was a little, I'm not mad. I'm just disappointed. Right. About what happened on Monday night against Atlanta. I think, you know, I don't care. Was it seven and a half? I understand that there's like a hook involved. I don't care. The Arizona Cardinals are so banged up their defense. I feel like it might be easier to make a list who's playing than who's not playing from who the projected starters were to head ahead of the season.

10:55Cynthia Frelund:I don't think Marvin Harrison Jr. Like, I think there's a lot of missing pieces and I think the Cardinals are kind of like, okay, next. I mean, Jacoby Brissett, notwithstanding, he's been great. Same with Trey McBride. Like there's a lot of great things, but I'm not saying that they're punting on the whole season. I'm just saying that I don't think in this matchup, I think that the Rams need to dial in. They're not getting a buy. You know, they're not going to get, they're not getting home field. They're, to dial in. That was not the loss they wanted. Matthew Stafford has not. He's thrown like seven interceptions all season long.

11:23Cynthia Frelund:So these are weird stuff. They need to get the weirds out. Yeah, and I think they want Stafford to go into the playoffs with a positive couple drives. And I think the defense, again, there's only so many players you can sit anyways, but I think they want to get the defense on track, and this Cardinals team has been phoning it in for a while. Okay, now we're to the third pick. I really love those first two picks. And I like a lot of others, but I just don't love them. So maybe I'll just go through some of the options. I think my top options, and I'll give my extra picks at the end. My top options would be the Bills favored only by a touchdown in the final game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, despite the fact we would expect to see Mitchell Trubisky and some of the backups in that game.

12:08Josh Allen will be starting, but they're playing the Jets. The emotions and the way that I think they're going to want to start with Josh Allen, that's one.

12:15Cynthia Frelund:I would go with that one. Okay. the other two are the two and AFC South teams again we're taking clear motivations yep and I'm taking you know I kind of like the Jags and Texans as heavy favorites to to cover their numbers now are the Texans a team that you can trust to cover 10 and a half at home against Riley Leonard I I think they are uh the Jaguars are playing for their division championship against a really bad Titans one I I like that a lot too but you said to go with the Bills I I think I will. I think you helped get over the top. I mean, look, I'm with you on all three. I agree with your logic on all three, but I just don't think like the bills that this is it at an iconic state stadium.

12:59Cynthia Frelund:Like they're moving to their parking lot. Their whole new stadium is ready next season. But this is it. So you're telling me that they don't have some like, I don't know. You said Ray Davis on game debut. you. I'm with you on that. Some crazy play that's stupid to alignment. Like maybe Dion Dawkins scores a touchdown for goodness sake. Something like that, that like means something to them against a jets team where has been totally deflated since like a while back. I just feel like I'm totally with you. I don't. And I think that number is very achievable too. Like if that number were 12 and a half, I might feel different because maybe they just kind of back cover at the end, but the number is tasty enough where I just think the bill, they, they want to go out on that high note there.

13:44Cynthia Frelund:They also really want to get, everyone's wants the coveted five seed, both AFC NFC, that five seed is the like such an advantage because both of the four seeds seem very lackluster this year in the NFC South. And of course the AFC North. So the bills are like, we want that five seat. So they're really motivated to win. They're not going to in any way leave this one to chance. That's my... I agree. The only thing that's tricky there is just the slight hesitation about motivation and going all out. Whereas you know the Jaguars are doing everything that they need to do to go beat the Titans. But do they beat them by 12 and a half?

14:22I think they will. And that's why I like them all. I will go with the Bills. I don't know.

14:26Cynthia Frelund:Don't let me talk you into it. What do you like as your third pick? I mean, I like all of those. Yeah, like, I mean, I'll go with whichever one you don't. Like, I think the Houston number against Indianapolis, where Phillip Rivers is, like, in the building helping out. Yeah, he's the back. Riley Leonard, like, I mean, it just feels like perhaps you're conceding, like, ten and a half in that situation feels pretty solid. Yeah, everyone gave Riley Leonard a nice pat on the back for coming in a few weeks back and looking okay. I think that's a little different starting the game against Houston. In Houston.

15:05Talk about a game that's going to be a party. All right. You want to pick the Texans as your third one? Okay.

15:10Cynthia Frelund:I mean, unless you really want that. I like all of those. I'll take them for everyone you don't. I like them all, too. I got to say, in the end. The only other one that I think is worth considering to be on the list would be Philadelphia to cover three and a half points. Interesting. Okay. With their backup. I agree with you. That's what I had. I think Tanner McKee and their backups are good enough. I got to say, I got to go with my gut. My gut likes the Jags even more than the Bills. So that's going to... Okay, then I'll go with the... I'll switch to the Bills. Okay. So everyone keeping track, you can...

15:37Look. You can like them all. We're giving them... We're giving them away. You don't have to just pick three games at home. You can choose whatever you want. But for my official picks, we're going to both go in on the Broncos minus 12 and a half to beat the Chargers backup. I'm taking the Vikings minus six and a half. And in the end, I kind of just my gut. I like the Jags minus 12 and a half a little more than the Bills. But I really like the Bills. Great. Two. I'm doing the Bills. You have the Bills minus seven. You have the Rams. And then you have the Broncos. What a great 2025 we had on the show.

16:11Thank you for having me. Oh, I mean, look, we got the playoffs to go.

16:14Cynthia Frelund:I know, but I still am grateful for 2025. People, I always say this. Like, you are the hardest working person in the building. You're here every freaking day. And this is a tough year. It's a challenging year around here, and you've been crushing it. Only because you're back at the house running your computer models. You're not here, but you're doing that in numbers game and everything else. But, yeah, we're going to keep it going. And I like that Cynthia is coming off an undefeated 3-0 week. And I kind of like in the normal games, too. I kind of like the Bears. I kind of like the Dolphins to cover 10-1⁄2.

16:49I kind of like the Browns.

16:50Cynthia Frelund:But those are just a little extra ones for you as we go into the year. Like, sure, but, like, also unsure. You know what I mean? Like, just because stupid stuff happens in games where there's, like, does Miles Garrett get the record? Gosh, I hope so. Yes. Like, I hope they sell out to make sure he gets that record. No, I don't want Joe Burd to get hit. Don't get me wrong. But, like, just give him the dang record. I saw that line, and I was like, do I trust the Cincinnati? I know they've been playing well lately. Do I trust the Cincinnati Bengals in the 25 season to be favored by seven and a half?

17:25Nope. They're going up against one of the best defense in the league. I really don't. So the Browns are just one little extra. But we have our three official picks locked in. We will be back next week. Sounds good.

17:36Cynthia Frelund:And the best week of all of the season. I love Wild Card Week. I do, too, because it's over three days. You get that Monday night little extra. You get the three games on Sunday. And, like, an underdog could win. But you know what? We got a great weekend of football ahead. The Saturday games will be recapping it all live on YouTube on Sunday night. Join us there.

18:01March is here and Uber Eats is delivering deals all month long. Score big savings on all the delicious food you need to fuel your sports fandom. Whether you're ordering in or hosting the whole crew, Uber Eats is serving up deals on wings, burgers, pizza, all from your favorite restaurants, plus snacks from top stores. Perennial powerhouse, underdog. However the madness unfolds, these deals keep it going all month long. Visit the Uber Eats app for all the latest deals and start saving today. You know how it's never really about where you're going. It's about who you're going with. The right people can turn any drive into a great memory.

18:37That's something Toyota really believes. They design vehicles around real life and real people. the ones who make plans happen and bring everyone together. Inside, everything's built with passengers in mind. Comfortable seating, smart layouts, and space that actually works so everyone can relax and enjoy the ride. There's room for the people, room for the stuff, and room for the moments that happen along the way. Because when people are the destination, your ride is important. Learn more at Toyota.com and find the vehicle that fits your people.

19:10Cynthia Frelund:Hey, it's Haley Steinfeld. When everything requires your attention, it can be tough to figure out what to prioritize. But I'm here to talk to you about something that you should always put first, your breast health. In fact, if you're 40 and over, you should be getting screened once a year. And if you're under 40, it's never too soon to visit yourattentionplease.com to learn about your breast cancer risk. So go on, pay the girls some attention, and take the time to find out your breast cancer risk at yourattentionplease.com. Trust me, your future self will thank you. Wasabi is purpose-built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees.

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