Over/Unders with Nick Wright

28:13Sexist! You ever see Ocean's 8? Enough! Super Troopers 3 Only in theaters Friday Rated R Under 17 not admitted without Amazon Health AI presents painful thoughts I I can't stop scratching my downtown yeah but I'm not itching to go downtown and tell a receptionist I'm here to talk about my downtown some things you'd rather type than say out loud there's no question too embarrassing for Amazon Health AI chat your symptoms and get virtual care 24-7 healthcare just got less painful. I'm going to go with one I know you're not taking. Maybe I should be strategic then. Let's actually go one further down the list.

29:01And let's go Vikings over eight and a half now. That was one of the things that stuck with me all the way since April. You look surprised. Oh, I'm very surprised. I know they won. What did they win last year? 14. 14 games. The Bears won five, by the way, and they have the exact same over-under this year. I just think people are just like, oh, how could we possibly recover from losing Sam Darnold? Just think of all the teams that fell apart after they got rid of Sam Darnold. It's like, no, Sam Darnold was not that important to this team. The offensive scheme, the best wide receiver in the NFL, the coach, they were what's important.

29:39And oh, by the way, like the best defense in the NFL or maybe the most talented entering year three. I get the schedule is really tough and I'm betting on two NFC North teams here, which is like you mentioned, a little tricky to go over on both of them. But eight and a half just felt like an, I would be really surprised if this team had a losing record this year. I really would. I like them better than the Packers. I like them, you know, to win. I would put them, if it was at nine and a half, I'd go over that too. Here's my only question on the best defense in football part of it. so many turnovers last year.

30:16That is the one piece of that that is a little concerning. And the other piece is obviously J.J. McCarthy with the limited experience in college. You're right that we have seen Kevin O 'Connell win with Cousins and Darnold and get the best out of those guys. What we haven't seen Kevin O 'Connell do is win with inexperience. Like Darnold's experience was bad, but it was experience. Kirk Cousins had a bunch of experience, obviously, when Kevin O 'Connell got there. And so J.J. not playing a ton in college, being that young and then missing all of last year, that to me would be a concern. Plus, I'm probably higher on the Bears than you are, leads to where I would.

31:04It is hard to go from 14 wins to seven wins. Like that is relatively speaking pretty rare, but I wouldn't have gone with the over so that you could have taken this whenever you wanted it. Yeah. That's, that's the thing after doing these drafts, everyone, everyone has much different opinions. Anyways, it was surprising actually that we had so much in common, at least with the, the chiefs and the Colts up at the top. But I feel great about this. I, I Josh Mattel said, this is their master's level year on the defense year three. I think, I think they're going to be peaking. All right. You're up next.

31:38All right, this is one that I fear you might have tipped your hand a bit when you said, ah, the AFC West, is it that good? This is one of my, this goes hand in hand with my Raiders over. The Denver Broncos are not winning 10 games. Under nine and a half. I love this. It's pretty low on my list, so I'm fine with you taking it and taking more of the heat from the Broncos fans who are. They're just the vicious people out there. Yeah, well, listen, be happy you live in one of the most beautiful cities in the world. Be happy that you get to watch Nikola Jokic play basketball. There's a lot of things to be happy about that you live in Denver.

32:26But this, I could go quite some time about the lunacy of how overvalued I find this team to be. First of all, everyone sends me these just glowing dissertations Sean Payton gives on Bo Nix. And all I do is I just Google news timeline. This time seven years ago, six years ago, and five years ago when I was subjected to, in the same off-seasons, dissertations about how, hey, Steve Young, you know who he reminds me a lot of? Taysom Hill. Taysom, and again, I don't think Bo Nix is Taysom Hill, but I think he's closer to Taysom Hill than the guy Sean Payton's trying to convince me he's close to, which is Drew Brees.

33:20I also have never seen a team that went 0-7 against the other AFC good teams last year, unless we're including the Chiefs backups. And then you can't even say they were peaking at the end of the year. They played Buffalo and got curb stumped. So, Nick, how did they get to 10 wins? Well, let's go through it just quickly. And again, I think the Broncos defense should be really good. Am I nervous about the injury concerns for the two big pieces from San Francisco? Of course. But the quarterbacks that this Denver Broncos team beat last year after having a great game against Baker were the following.

34:04Aaron Rodgers. Aiden O 'Connell whoever the hell was starting for the Saints last year I don't remember, was it Carr? he's not in football anymore, right? was it the Panthers quarterback in week 8 Bryce Broncos was Rattler I think on a primetime game oh the Saints was Rattler that's right, it wasn't Carr that is correct Kirk Cousins right before they pulled the ripcord the Raiders again I assume O 'Connell the Brown starting quarterback in week 13 last year let's check and see who that stud was it was Jameis the Colts quarterback in week 15 is he a starter anymore? No I'm sorry that was Anthony Richardson and then Chad Henney so you beat two guys who are currently starters one of which is 42 now wait did you just say they played against Chad henny and everyone's like all right and i'm wrong chad henny's not the backup anymore is carson wince it was carson wince i apologize like it's that i would you know i was i was a lonely man once on chad henny island uh hey man he had one of the greatest i was like one of the greatest plays in chief's history anything is possible to scramble on third and 16 against the browns in the playoffs but and then i i just the only thing sean payton has enjoyed more than cultivating friends in the media and and and talking up Bo Nix is reminding people how close he was to drafting Patrick Mahomes and telling Seth Wickersham about his his proprietary algorithm of evaluating quarterbacks which is just completion percentage minus bad plays um and so I I color me skeptical that the Broncos are a true contender I will go under I love all that And they were very, you know, I made a pretty long list.

36:05Broncos under nine and a half was on it, though. It was towards the bottom, but it was on it. Yeah, part of it. Do I have the guts? Because I do like looking at offensive line plus defensive line. And just like that, that's where you find a lot of underrated teams. It's why I'm going to choose my next over. I might as well just say it's the Jets, which is going to be going high. But that's a reason to like the Broncos, by the way, is that, man, their lines really do look pretty darn good. And that is Sean Payton's secret sauce, I think, more than his algorithm. That's so funny. Yeah, I think he always has a good offensive line.

36:42He's hired good offensive line coaches. They've just found a way to maximize that unit in a way very few teams have. So that makes me worried, but I'm under on them too. I love that. All right, let's go to the Jets. I've been saying it all offseason. I got to just stick with what I actually feel. I thought the craziest thing when the totals still came, when they came out was the gap between the Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets. I just don't get it. And I just think these teams are all closer than you'd expect. I think the Jets have a very good offensive line. I think they could have a pretty good defensive line.

37:16I like the changes in terms of Aaron Glenn becoming their head coach. I think Robert Sala was a little overrated. I know the defense played pretty well for him there, but the talent on defense is still there. And five and a half is so low in that division. You look at their schedule, the AFC schedules out of the division is ideal. And you get four games against the Dolphins and the Patriots, which I think are winnable, at least to split those games for the Jets. I feel good about five and a half. I think it's one of the dumbest things in sports is nothing harder to do than win a game in the NFL.

37:51It's actually not that hard to win about six games in the NFL. You don't have to be that good. You just need to get a good schedule and have some good vibes in the building and some talent. And they definitely have that. So I like the Jets to go like 7 and 10. I feel good about over 5 and a half. So, Liz, here's what I like about the Jets' chances of just having a normal, fine, below average year, which is what you're describing. This is the first season that players and coaches on the Jets have been able to operate day to day with the media and then week to week without every single thing being a referendum on.

38:35what about the quarterback? Because going from Darnold to Zach to Aaron, everybody was just an NPC in the development of that guy's movie. And so I thought it was really smart of Aaron Glenn to go like not only move off Aaron, but to also pick as banal a quarterback as you could find in fields like listen nobody's really going nobody's like oh man is he the answer he's it's not about Nate Tice is still there Nate oh really no I don't I don't really know that but there are fields fans out there there are yes but still but but it's not everyone else can just go about their business and it's like he's building the team and then they'll address the quarterback which is not a good way to win a championship but it might be a good way to get things going So I'm fine with that.

39:33I don't even remember where I had them. I also think that it doesn't matter. So I do think, though, my only concern is I do think that they're probably the last place team in that division. But now some would say the Dolphins, the floor could fall out, which is fair. But yeah, I don't mind. I don't mind over five and a half. I can't do actual bets like you, but whatever their playoff odds are, I would like the value on that. I don't think it's that crazy to imagine them as the seven team. You just talked about culture change. I think they're going to be a little more like you think the Raiders are going to be.

40:15We're just culture, which is really important. They have a clear person in charge. Usually it's ownership. It gets messy. Douglas and Salah were kind of feckless. This is Aaron Glenn's organization. I mean, have you heard a word out of their GM? Do you even know who it is? Darren Mugi, who has no presence whatsoever either. And like, it's clearly just a Glenn hire. And it's all about Aaron Glenn. And I'm kind of buying into Aaron Glenn. At least to just make them fun. Can I do a, can we have a quick sidebar conversation? I want to get through these picks, but yes. Just very quick. If the Jets do make the playoffs, I think that would probably mean the Patriots don't.

40:54And if the Jets make the playoffs and the Patriots don't, I just would like your great producer, Eric, to just cut together a few of your kind of almost just throw in asides over the summer about how obviously great Drake May is. Like it's not even worth discussing. Like I have, you know, I'll be like the, the, and whether it was in your tears list, when you argued with Sando, it's like, it's just, I think in, in, in a courtroom, if I were the other attorney, I would say objection, your honor facts, not yet in evidence. I like, I, and I like Drake me. I think that's fair. I had regrets, not regrets, but second thoughts went after we did that QB tears was like, am I putting the cart before the horse a little bit on Drake me?

41:45I, Well, I mean, if they finish third in the division this year, then I'm just saying we need to look at the cart and the horse together. All right. My next one. I'm going to go with another under. There's two I'm looking at, and so I'm going to be strategic on which one I go with. I'm going to go with one that I think you could take. The Niners under 10 and a half. So I, this will be from a talent perspective, the worst defense they've had there since Shanahan first got there. Now, I think Salah will do a nice job with, you know, taking over the coordinator spot. I don't doubt that in the least.

42:32However, aside from Bosa and Warner, it's a bunch of real question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The injuries at wide receiver at this point are almost cartoonish. And now some quarterbacks can take a receiving core of Sky Moore and Marquez Valdez-Scantling and win multiple Super Bowls. But Brock Purdy is not one of them. And so that worries me. Christian McCaffrey when he's out there is a top three back in the league, but the, when he's out there part is a concern and like Trent Williams, they can't win without Trent Williams and Trent Williams backup signed with Kansas city. So like that's, you know, and he's the oldest tackle in the league, all of that.

43:24Plus Kyle, not so subtly lowering the expectations for everyone and all of that. The fact I couldn't, I'm stunned at this number that it's 10 and a half. And what, what, right. What everybody argues is the schedule. And my counter to that is simply what if the Niners are the, a soft spot in some other team's schedule. And, and so I just, the fact that this team in theory could win the division, make the playoffs and the under still hit, I'll take the under 10 and a half. Yeah, this is one. I don't know what happens for you because you're on three hours a day now and you got your YouTube show. So, I mean, first of all, you're doing the nicest thing possible.

44:14We're not we've never even met in real life. This is only the second time. But the nicest thing you can do for a friend is you're giving me more airtime in a day that you're doing hours and hours. But what happens when you just don't know you don't have a take? That's where I'm at with this entire division. With the 49ers, I've gone back and forth in my mind all division. If I had to make one right now, I probably would go with you and under. But it certainly wouldn't make my top 10. And I won't pat myself on the back or feel bad about anything that happens in this division. Because I don't have a take.

44:48I really don't. I don't know. I don't have a strong take on anything that could happen here. You could tell me anything. I wouldn't be surprised. yeah I that's how I kind of feel about the Cardinals and Seahawks yes I do I do feel strongly about the Rams that if Stafford's healthy they're going to be excellent yes if Stafford's healthy part is such a you know huge you know dark cloud hanging over all right I will I will go next got your Niners you did not take one from me I'm going to go Cowboys over seven and a half. You're, you're, you, you're reacting like I took it from you or that you think it's a dumb pick.

45:28I love this pick. I could have taken it even higher. They're, they're in a division where I think the commanders are overrated. That that's one where I've seen enough of your social clips where I know we're, we're on different sides of things there. And so I think the commanders are overrated giants. We'll see. I mean, they're fine. man they have Dak Prescott on their team a quarterback that I absolutely trust a lot of talent on that offensive line that's young I am buying the propaganda that Brian Schottenheimer will be a better head coach than he was a coordinator got a little bit of his dad I think he's got that organization in terms of his coaching staff and the players kind of to any out the noise as well as he, as anyone possibly could.

46:13And ultimately, I think they still have the bones of a team that won 12 games, you know, three years in a row with a pretty mediocre head coach. I love their defensive line. I mean, I think it could be the best edge group in the league, assuming Micah Parsons is going to be on the team. And I am assuming that. I know you talk about it every day and stuff, but it just history tells us he will be on that team. It would, it would be a blow to my pick if he's not on the team, but it's not eight and a half it's at seven and a half and i feel great i think they're going to win 10 games i have them in the playoffs i i like the cowboys this year wow i probably should have taken them earlier to be honest no you didn't need to because i was going to go under go for it you should have a challenge you could tell well here's the problem we we are we're i'm working off can i say the sports book that i got my numbers say anything you want yes okay we haven't um i don't know the and the i'm working off the draft kings numbers and so the draft kings total was at eight and a half with a lot of juice on the under so you know what i mean so that's why you sort of in between yes the real back in the day some win totals landed on even numbers you know what i mean it would so the real cowboys total if it was 10 years ago would have been set at eight but if you want to if you want to step up here make it eight and we go on different sides it's just a fun little challenge here i'm i'm good with that yeah sure deal that's fine right yeah so the it's so no action if they go eight and nine i kind of screwed you if they go eight and nine because you had already land grabbed the seven and a half no i think this could be a year from hell for them.

47:52I respect your football opinion so much that your opinion of their D-line is making me reconsider my opinion of their D-line because I look at the Cowboys as a team that with Micah Parsons should have an okay defense and without Micah Parsons might be one of the worst defenses in football. Now, it sounds like you feel very differently than me about that. And I also think the... I think Micah going to get this second opinion on his back is not so subtle shot across the bow of, we will miss games. Yeah, it's a little worrisome. I agree. And so there's that. I also... I just don't see how they...

48:45Dak's going to have to have a phenomenal season for them to win. And I don't know, like George Hickens is to me, I put him in the kind of the bucket of player, which is in leads my, he's one of the reasons that in professional football, more than any other sport, I believe talent can be wildly overrated. Like I hear so much. The guy's got so much talent. Like football is too hard and too brutal and too many other things that if talent's the only thing you can lead with that, I don't necessarily trust you. And so I, the Schottenheimer piece concerns me. I just never like the, Hey, if you didn't get that job, who else was going to give it to you?

49:39And the answer is shoot. Nobody. Like, I got to tell you that I had that always, It's the Cowboys, though. They're just different. But what they're not in general is consistently bad. I mean, certainly in the Dak or Tony Romo era. Like, give me the back-to-back lousy years out of the Cowboys. I hear all that. I think they are among the highest variance defenses in the league. I'm counting a lot on Matt Eberflus to, like, get that system and kind of put a top over it by, you know, I think it might be ugly early. They have a couple really talented cornerbacks in Siobhan Diggs and Siobhan Revell that we just don't know injury-wise.

50:14They will be run on in the interior. It does not look good. But that edge group, if you just go through it, Sam Williams is really talented coming off an ACL. Marshawn Nealon, Dante Fowler, Micah Parsons, Donovan Azaraku. Five deep, that's as good as that. He was good last year. He was literally the commander's probably second best passer. I'm just saying he's like a rotational guy. I don't know if that counts as one of your expectations. you did Cowboys over. I did Cowboys. So then I'm back. The one thing I'm rooting for now, more than anything is the Cowboys not to land on eight. That'll just bother me so much.

50:49If you win because of that, no, I won't win because of that. It'd be a push. Sure. But I mean like the overall competition between the two of us. If somehow that push makes a difference, I'll go commanders under nine and a half. I'm not being strategic. Also, we only have like 10 minutes left, so I should get the ones out that I want. Cause I know you like the commanders a lot this year. I think there's a lot of ways that this could go really wrong. Obviously, it's tough to bet against such a, or pick, because I don't bet, against a quarterback this good in Jaden Daniels. But it is going to be his second year in the league, so it's not the longest track record of success.

51:25A unique offense, and I just think the defense could be really poor. The skill position, depth, very poor. And I think there's just a lot of ways it could go wrong, and they could be a losing team. So I'm probably not quite as high on the commanders as you think. I'm sure what you saw was I saw you had them ahead of the Eagles. Well, so, yeah. So I had the commanders and the Eagles, both 11 and six. And if the, in my make-believe standings, in my predictions, am I going to actually figure out who would win the make-believe tiebreaker? Or does tie go to more interesting? It went to more. If I haven't both 11 and six and Eagles fans hate me already, might as well be like, and you know what?

52:02When I've crunched the numbers, the commanders based on strength of schedule tiebreaker, they're going to win the division. um and so my i have a bias against skinny football players particularly the quarterback position and because of that i was a jayden skeptic and he was like very wrong on lamar you know the i i mean i've been the most right person in sports media about lamar jackson and one day people will admit it um and there's nothing wrong with being aaron judge man all time great get a statue one day there's nothing wrong with it uh and the man lamar's not skinny you've seen lamar's neck it goes past his ears uh i was worried about jayden's ability to stay healthy and last year i got to admit when he got what obviously injuries the the worst thing you can do in sports takery is be like i think the guy's super talented but i'm worried he won't stay healthy because it's it's a bummer of a take and if you are correct you don't get to like be like told you like there's never like a moment just keep it in your pocket keep it in your head um and but he did get hit last year he did get the bruised ribs and it didn't matter like he had the brief moment where his play dipped a bit he is super talented and I love how they added to the offensive line and i think that they're patchworking the defense um so i i do like the commanders i'm not a commanders going to the super bowl guy but i wouldn't have gone under all right i'm gonna go it's my turn now i know i'm actually surprised i went with that so high that was a spiteful just to get a saucy pick in there no let's let's go fast here we'll do we'll get this is my uh this is the last year I can ride with this guy in this team.

53:58If they don't, if he doesn't come through for me and I'm going with the Prince that was promised and the Jaguars over seven and a half. This kills me. This, this shows I shouldn't have taken Cowboys or commander because in my heart, I believe that more than the picks I've already done. I don't know why it was lower on my list. I'm looking at my stupid list. I'm with you. That's a terrible move by you. Listen, man, I still believe in Trevor Lawrence, but, man, he's got to validate it. And I don't like when people say he never has, like it's all based on college. Year two for him, he was good. The following year, they started eight and three, and then he got maimed in that Monday night football game.

54:45They didn't have a cart to take him off the field, and poor guy hasn't been the same ever since. Hopefully he is this year. You are, I think, correctly super high on Travis Hunter. I think for Trevor's case, it's really nice that he seems to be, they're going to lean more offense than defense with him. Brian Thomas Jr. is excellent, and it seemed like they were just done with the Doug Peterson experience. And so I think that we talked about how the Colts and the weakness there, I think in that division, could they win it? Sure. would I be, I'd be devastated if they don't get to eight wins. I think they can get to 10.

55:28So I will go over Jacksonville. Uh, I love that. Sometimes you don't really know what your heart truly feels until you're just like doing these shows. And truly, I think I would have the Jaguars in my top five or so. I'm, I'm in on that. So I got one of your best bets and you got one of mine. Yeah. Cause you got Colts under and I got Jack. And with that in mind, I'm going against what I had written down. and I'm taking Saints under five and a half before anyone else does, just in case. I just feel like, man, if they got to five wins, I would say bravo, Kellen Moore. I just, good job. I just think this team stinks.

56:03I think they could be two and 15. Wow. I went to camp and I was actually like, man, their defense is kind of spicy and this and that. You're so surprised by that? No. Well, I just, you have a soft spot in your heart for Louisiana and for New Orleans. Here's the thing, though. Saints fans, they don't want this, but they kind of want this. So I think if they get along the journey, I won't even feel bad rooting against them because hashtag ArchMyBack. They want the scenario where they're just getting in position for Archie Manning, who they believe will only come out in the draft if the Saints have the one pick, which is probably wishful thinking and stupid.

56:46but uh yeah i would say i would say is it not on the board that the opposite's true the only way he doesn't come out um i'm gonna go bangles under nine and a half bold on my very long list i agree but wouldn't have been something i would have picked i just i don't understand why it's going to be different than last year and the answer can be well the defense won't be quite as bad and the offense probably won't be quite as good I think the Bengals offensive line is one of the more under discussed big question marks of the season I think that uh the defense is I I listen as a Chiefs fan I'm glad they got rid of Lou Anarumo like he I understand that he struggled there last year he sure seemed in the playoffs to give Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen trouble, which if I'm the Bengals, that's actually all I want from my D coordinator.

57:44You can do what the Bills do, which is have defensive coordinators that are unbelievable throughout the regular season and then can't stop a good quarterback in the playoffs, or what the Bengals had, which is the opposite. And so I also fundamentally disagree with how they have decided to build this team, And I think that they are, I think that we are staring at a, again, I understand he's arguably the greatest coach of all time, but so not to disrespect Sean Payton's tenure with the Saints, but a similar run of when they, Breeze had three consecutive years where he averaged 5 ,000 yards passing and they went seven and nine every single year.

58:31and I think that unlike Sean I don't think Zach Taylor survives it I think they missed the playoffs again and I think Zach Taylor's fired yeah I'm torn on this one but ultimately I agree it's not that different than my Colts pick it's larger than just the players involved it's the organization it's the structure of it all that just that's gonna sink them ultimately I agree all right I want to have an odd number we can't we can't be tying so let's go I'll do two more you got one more and then that'll put us at nine each can i just ask a quick question yeah i know that math is not a strong suit of this show how on earth does whether we each have eight nine or ten impact whether or not we tie well because if we each that's not how it's gonna work i'm an idiot well you know

59:26why don't we both i was thinking we're going against each other yeah but we're we got a lot of shows you know i get a lot of shows listen man why don't you do an eighth and then we will have done 16 that's half the league no that's perfect man this is tough and i'll just give some freebies to the people out there the ones i'm considering the dolphins under eight and a half feels like it's too obvious for everyone and yet I do like it. The Giants over five and a half takes a little guts, but I do believe in it. I think they're going to be better than people think. The Ravens over 11 and a half doesn't take a lot of guts, but I do think they'll get there.

1:00:08But I think just for consistency, all three years on these over-unders, I have taken the Bears under. And this is only going, we only had three or four picks each year, and they were my first pick, I think, or like last year last year you were correct i nobody was more every year i've been correct they've been under every year nobody was more wrong about the bears in the national media than me last year and you were about as right as anybody so ty ty and you said in your case ty goes to what's the sauce of your pick to me the bear just consistency for the sake of the show going bears under for the fourth straight year even though i do think they will be better eight and a half in that division where I like the Vikings and the Lions quite a bit.

1:00:53I think he'll have done a fine job, Ben Johnson, if they win seven or eight games. They're not as talented, I don't think, as people think, certainly on defense. And so I'll go under Bears. OK, that's perfect. I would have gone over. So that's perfect. We did it. The only man who could just slide in an amazing joke about, you know, the 49ers aren't the type of team that could win with Sky more and MVS at wide receiver and just, just keep on going. Like, I hope that was off the dome. One of the most talented guys in the business, Nick, right. Appreciate you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Love the show.

1:01:28The only thing I don't like about coming on it is it takes now tomorrow. I got nothing to listen to. See you later, Greg. Thanks. All right. We will see a Nick, right. And saying goodbye as we hit the music and tell you a little bit about what's coming up later this week, 40s and free agents on Friday will be in your feed. Patrick, Jordan and I will be over the weekend our reasons for joy in 2025 and then a couple season preview episodes with Daniel Jeremiah. Then we are on to our week one schedule. The over-unders are out. Football is back.

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