Patriots-Giants Week 13 MNF Recap, Drake Maye's MVP Chances and the AFC Super Bowl Hierarchy

25:51Nick Shook:Stubbing their toe. You know what? I'm going to defend him for a second because let's consider the situation here. And I just looked up the next gen probability or what the recommendation was. And the recommendation was go for it, but it was only by like a small percentage. I believe it was 0.5%. You're trying to win a game here. You're trying to do something special. The only chance you have is to do something special. Okay, but, and you're right, if he wants to keep the job. Because you don't win the job like Antonio Pierce once won the job with Raiders, unless you win games, and they have not done that with Capco, right?

26:20Nick Shook:But also consider the situation. You are deep in your own territory. You have not stopped anything for most of the first half. The Patriots have all the momentum in the world and they are ready to just finally knock you out for good. So if you don't get it on fourth and one, which you've already been stopped turnover on downs earlier in this game, then at least you force them to go, I don't know, 50, 60, maybe even 70 yards of the Scottish hammer gets a good gets into it, which he kind of didn't. But what you don't account for is that your defense is going to give up like 55 yards in three plays.

26:46Well, you could account for it if you've watched the game, you know,

26:49Nick Shook:I guess that's fair, but I understood it. And I said, if they would have gone for it, there would have been idiotic and desperate. But again, Giants have two wins on the year. They have to be desperate because not being desperate is idiotic in itself. Right. Okay. It, I, it's one yard though. And that's hard for them. They were at that's fair. The 36 yard line. My point is it just was not surprising that the Patriots were on the giants 19 yard line for plays later, seven yards to Matt Collins, 15 to Demario Douglas, a short pastor, Mondria Stevenson. And this Giants defense is just poorly coached, even without Shane Bowen.

27:27And then, yeah, they kick the field goal. By the way, the Patriots, I point, I say this every week, though. Patriots receivers make tough catches. Mack Hollins made some tough catches tonight. I know Mark Hunter Henry had a drop, which is rare for him. But Stefan Diggs, you know, Kyle Williams tonight, certainly Keishan Booty. They might not beat you with beat you a speed score. They've got good hands. Like I've seen a lot of contested catches that has helped. the completion percentage. And then my final thing on this game is they should not keep Joe Shane. That's all. Oh, I agree. Why did they move the goalposts before the season?

28:03They said, you know, John Mara is on, on the record saying that wins and losses are gonna, you know, that's what we need this year. We need to show progress. And they asked how like wins and losses that yes, we need to see it in the standings. And somehow they've moved the goalposts. They've won two games. And I don't think Joe Shane's done a good job. Start over.

28:22Nick Shook:Yeah. Yeah, what they did was they scapegoated Brian Dable arguably too soon because I think he finally got the quarterback that he could work with. And we saw signs of potential with their pairing. And then they just said, we need to make a change somewhere. So we're going to fire our coach, but we're going to stick with our GM because we like what he's done with our roster over the last couple of years. And I push back against that because Abdul Carter is a great example of how far they still have to go as an organization. This was the can't miss guy in the draft. Everybody went into the draft thinking he's the best player in the draft.

28:48Nick Shook:The Giants get it in the top five and everything's dandy. and they trade back in for Jackson Dart. That's great. What has he done this year? Not much. Lack of professionalism, at least according to reports, him getting benched in the first quarter two of the last three weeks. That's not good, which means, did you vet him? Or did you just go with, well, he's the best player on the board? That falls on the GM, not just on the coach. It falls on the GM as well. There's a lack of professionalism and accountability and preparation with this team right now. And it starts from the top down. So I totally agree.

29:17Nick Shook:If you're going to fire the coach and blame him for everything, the GM that hired him and the GM that he was supposed to work with to turn this team around should also be held accountable. And I felt like it was a half measure. If you're really going to try to put the Giants back on track toward being a winning football team, I hate to restart because I think continuity matters. But you're not keeping any continuity by keeping your GM there. You're just perpetuating a list of or a routine, a habit of making poor decisions with your team further with the belief that somehow it's going to change with a new coach.

29:45I love that. And I do allow for the possibility that John Mara will change his mind. He has before when talking about different coaching decisions over the years. So it could still happen. Carter reportedly was a guy that was maybe doing this during the Dable tenure. And that was part of some of the whispers that you see from the reporters that cover the team, that it was very permissive atmosphere with Dable there and getting him out the door. Now they're trying to get Carter into better habits. But I'm just making the Devils happy.

30:26Nick Shook:That's unfair because you talk about, I know, and I get that, but you moved the goalposts with Joe Shane. Well, you're also kind of moving the goalposts with Dable because think about the position he's in. He's coaching for his job, and in order to increase his chances of winning games to keep his job, he puts his best players on the field. Carter is supposed to be one of his better plays on the team, You got to keep him out there. I don't like the idea of it being permissive either because you got to establish some culture and sense of accountability. But I think he was in a tough spot regardless.

30:50Nick Shook:Pinning that on him alone is not fair. Yeah. And Carter, to be fair, came in and I think he got three pressures in this first series. Yeah. Like he came in and he was like he had his hair on fire. He got his sack, which was really more Drake May sliding at the line of scrimmage. But Carter got it. But he got a couple other quick pressures in there. So I thought he played a pretty good game. And I will say when Jackson Dart was running back and forth and back and forth during that two-point try that he eventually hit, it reminded me of a play in Drake May's rookie year, a rare victory. Was it his only victory?

31:28Where he hit his receiver against the Tennessee Titans on an incredible two-point attempt where he is running back and forth and back and forth. And it was just a guy showing that he's an athlete. And that was like the first, okay, Drake may like big time moment. And so maybe we'll think back on how this season ended. I don't think Jackson has nearly the ceiling as Drake may because you saw it tonight. You've seen it so far. He's just not that successful right now as a drop back passer, as a traditional, just like, you know, forget the RPOs. You know what though?

32:00Nick Shook:Yeah. That works for Bo Nix. At least it does for the most part. If you're saying the ceiling's not as high as Drake may who I think always had every tool that you wanted. and I think Jackson Dart might not have that or it's going to take a little while. But I do think Jackson Dart's ceiling is pretty high and I think he's looked pretty good as it were.

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37:17For Massachusetts, 1-800-327-5050. For Iowa, 1-800-BETS-OFF. For Puerto Rico, 1-800-981-0023. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. All right, let's move on to this hierarchy talk. So, quick assignment. We're going to fire through this quickly. We finished 13 weeks. The final four teams that have a bye are going to have it in week 14. That's the Giants and the Patriots and the Panthers and the 49. So, you know, we're at a nice little point in the season here. I wanted you, after this game, because the Patriots are the number one seed in the AFC, to break down your AFC hierarchy.

38:02And I wanted you to do it not by power ranking, just purely. who do you think has like the best chances? They're a real chance to make the Super Bowl and how we're going to do this. We're going to go one at a time. It's too hard to go back and forth. I want you to give me your entire hierarchy right off the bat, top to bottom. We're not counting teams that aren't going to make the playoffs. It's an only team that you can imagine have a real chance to make the Super Bowl. You give me your hierarchy right off the bat and then we'll talk about that and then I'll go next.

38:34Nick Shook:Do you want to do this by tiers? Yeah. Give me your different tiers. Start at the top. Okay. Tier one. Call me crazy because they're not currently in the playoff picture, but the Kansas City Chiefs are in there. This is in no particular order, but within the tiers. Kansas City Chiefs are in there. I'm going to say the Denver Broncos are also in there because that defense is going to travel well. I'm skeptical of them, but I'm still going to put them in there because they've looked a lot better in the last few weeks of the Buffalo Bills. Okay. And last but not least, the Indianapolis Colts. That's tier one.

39:05Nick Shook:um tier two we'll go new england patriots and then we'll go Houston Texans and that's probably it for that one because then I have questions about the remaining teams which without keeping track of this um we'll go it would be Jaguars Chargers have you said the Ravens yet that's gonna be the Jaguars the Chargers and the Raven did I just say the Ravens already I don't think i did because i have questions about all of them the ravens being lamar jackson just doesn't look like himself the chargers offensive line and uh the jaguars they're very up and down and trevor lawrence let's break this down here let's break this down so you have the chiefs the broncos the bills and the colts in the top tier and you have those four teams a tier ahead of the Patriots.

40:00Now, the Colts ahead of the Patriots, the Broncos ahead of the Patriots. I've been kind of banging the drum that I think this Patriots team has some real shortcomings, but I'm curious for why you think they are a whole tier below a team led by a broken-legged Daniel Jones and Bo Nix.

40:23Nick Shook:It's not because of Mike Vrabel. It's because of the trench play. Losing Milton Williams is a big absence, and I think it was pretty apparent early in this game against the Giants. Could get him back. Could get both him and Will Campbell back for the playoffs. Yes, could, could, but it's a big could, and I think that that's going to be their biggest limitation. It's that, and I hate to say this too because the Colts don't really boast this either, but it's a lack of experience. Now, I love Drake May, and I don't think that he's the problem when it comes to a lack of experience, but there have been so many new additions to this team.

40:49Nick Shook:They spent so much money in free agency. They're relying on a mixed cast where, like, Stephon Diggs is one of your most senior members on the offensive side, and he's had a great year. But if I have to like put a lot of trust in them, I think that while I could see them in the Super Bowl, I could see them much more being a divisional round loss candidate with a really high upside going into 2026. But you can see in your mind's eye,

41:15myself, Jordan Rodriguez. Let's do it. Yourself in a trailer outside of Levi's Stadium like we were last year doing a podcast and Shook taking up like half the trailer. And we're talking about that big fourth quarter drive, good or bad, we won't decide who wins the game, by Bo Nix in that Super Bowl. You can imagine that. Or Daniel Jones. You can imagine that, but you can't imagine the Drake May one.

41:41Nick Shook:No, I can't imagine the big fourth quarter drive by Bo Nix. I can imagine the big fourth quarter stand by the Broncos defense. And I can imagine the big fourth quarter march by the Colts riding Jonathan Taylor in that offensive line to a victory and putting a game away that way. I'm not putting it on the quarterbacks. I know quarterbacks are the most important position in the NFL, but I think about the completeness of these other teams. And Denver's defense is, I think, still better than we even give them credit for and could win any game at any time. It's going to be close. Like, it's never going to be a blowout.

42:09Nick Shook:It's always going to be kind of sloppy. It's going to be very much playing with your food with the Broncos. But the defense, I'm telling you, I know it's old school, but they win championships. We saw it with the Eagles last year. And the Colts are a more complete team in that I trust Lou Anarumo to get the most out of his defense. I would like DeForest Buckner to be involved. And I believe that riding Jonathan Taylor could be a key to success for them against a team that maybe doesn't have a great run defense and they get to the Super Bowl. Okay. I think a lot of the commenters are wondering, like, why are the Chiefs in that first tier?

42:39But I'm going to go through mine now. Now, I disagree with you about the Colts. I don't disagree about the Chiefs being in the first tier. because I just think they have a chance. Like, we're talking about chances to go to the Super Bowl. In this scenario, obviously, they got to make the playoffs. It's a little lower than some of the other teams because we know that the Patriots and the Broncos are going to the playoffs, for instance. And yet, like, I do think I can see that route. But the reality is this is the most open AFC, maybe open conference that we've seen in a long time. And so I have a monstrous first tier.

43:16I think that's the way I settle it in no particular order. I have the Broncos as well. I have the Patriots. If you can get, I put those two in, even though I feel less confident in those two teams, because I think they have a really good chance of either being the one seed or the one in the two seed. That is a real advantage, especially being the one seed, getting to the divisional round. It all depends on matchups. I don't think any of these teams are great. And so I do think in the right day, the right matchup, those two teams could win a couple games. I do have the Chiefs and the Bills, the coaching, the quarterbacks.

43:54It's obvious they're not playing their best. I just don't think people remember at this time of year just how freaking long these NFL seasons are. There will be a team that starts playing its best football in week 17. Yeah. Or 18. Or you know what? They stink going into the playoffs and then they start playing really well. I like the Bengals a few years back. Like you, they just have the components and I know there's some real structural problems with these teams, but it's such a weak AFC that like I can see it happening. So I put those four teams on the same level with the Ravens because I still think this defense is playing well right now.

44:35And you just can't tell me that a defense and Lamar Jackson couldn't somehow find a way to figure it out. And so that's five teams right there. And I wrote down two more. I actually thought at first, and now that I'm talking it through, I don't think I can do it. I'd put the Chargers and the Texans in there too. Because I really just think, here's why, Shook, it's not a good AFC. Like, could the Texans defense be the best thing in the playoffs and you have a really great young quarterback who plays his best and beats a bad field? Could Justin Herbert go total God mode with a ton of skill position talent and a pretty well-coached complete defense?

45:21Hell, I'm putting those two in the first tier. It's a seven-team tier.

45:24Nick Shook:You just ruined the entire exercise because you just stuck everyone into the first tier. No, that's the point of the exercise for me. That's the point of the exercise for me. You just ruined it. I appreciate your optimism because we did this exercise, what was it, six, eight weeks ago, where we're like, how many teams could we see making the Super Bowl? and we put half the freaking league in there. So I know you're an optimist when it comes to these things, but if we're going to tear them, you've got to have shortcomings. And I appreciate the wide-open AFC argument. It's valid. But this is the year.

45:52The Arizona Cardinals in 2009, was it?

45:58Nick Shook:Mm-hmm. Lost Week 16 and 17 by a combined 60 points. And then they were one drive away from winning the Super Bowl. like the Green Bay Packers were a six or a seven seed and they went and won the Super Bowl we like the Steelers made it as a low this is a this is a year I just don't I just think anyone's got a chance and I just don't think in reality there's that big a difference between this Patriots team and the Chargers or this Broncos team and the Ravens or a Bills team that's not great and like the Chiefs or the Texans. I just don't. We keep seeing it. We'll see it again Sunday night, Texans Chiefs.

46:44They're all around the same. So I shake them all up. They all got a chance.

46:48Nick Shook:You got a win with the Texans' performance against the Chargers in the playoffs last year because pretty much everybody thought the Chargers were going to run away with that one, and they didn't. The Texans' defense dominated them. That was actually the first time. Those two teams had no chance to win the Super Bowl or make the Super Bowl. This year, don't you feel different? I don't know. I mean, because it's wide open. That does make sense, but at the same time, it's a confidence thing. Who is the most complete team? And there is no perfectly complete team. I just see the Chargers on a weekly basis still don't protect Justin Herbert.

47:17Nick Shook:And I know we have all the faith in the world that you can throw them to victory. That's the reason against them. So put them against the Texans and they get shredded again by that defense. And boom, you're done. Which is why you don't belong in tier one. If I can identify one matchup where I can see you just getting dominated, you don't belong in tier one. But see, everyone's got that matchup. I think that's a great point. point shook and the weirdly like the chiefs are a team that are pretty balanced like i think the you know the bills give them problems in in the regular season but i do think like matchup wise a team that could really run the ball on them um would be dangerous but then you you like look at the group at the teams that are making the playoffs in the afc and it's like who is that really the Chiefs.

48:02Yeah, that's I mean, the Bills, maybe the Colts, but the Colts, you can't tell me their offensive line is so great when I've seen their interior line totally cave in on Dana Jones two games in a row. They're not pass protecting well in the defense's blot. And so like, do they get a matchup where they can hide those? I just I do think it's just going to be a year where it all depends on the matchups and there's going to be kryptonite for different teams. And we won't know totally till we get there but like the broncos aren't some perfect team they almost freaking

48:36Nick Shook:lost to the commanders last night yeah no and that's the problem is that we have no idea who these teams are week to week like it's made picking games nearly impossible this season because even on the nfc side bryce young looks terrible one week looks great the next like and that's totally true for all of these afc teams there's nobody who is consistently effective enough from week to week they've lost certain matchups and it makes it all very unpredictable which is why it builds the intrigue of the nfl which is why it's the best most popular sport in america and why everybody's going to tune it.

49:03Dean in the chat says, y 'all wilding out with this AFC hire. Thank you, Dean. I thought Shook was out there for having the Pats in tier two. And now 60 % G has half the conference in the top tier. Hey guys, life is unpredictable. Sports are unpredictable. This NFL season has showed us that actually it wouldn't be that big of a shock for any of these teams. I like give them all about a 15 % chance. And there's home field doesn't really matter. The pedigree matters, but that's why I'm bumping up the Ravens and Chiefs and Bills into the top tier because they haven't really earned it otherwise. By the way, I do have a tier two.

49:45And that's the other... Initially, I had the AFC South teams, all three of them in there, but now I've bumped the Texans up. My tier two is the Jags and the Colts. Yeah, and I was going to say... I can't see them going through three weeks. and then the Steelers you're not even on my list I don't care that you're 6-6

50:04Nick Shook:no they're not in the conversation but basically what you're telling me is that I should just prepare for we're going to fly out to Santa Clara in February and I'm going to meet you there and we're going to be on set and we're going to be breaking down Jags Bears well no see the Jags the only way that I can be proven wrong is if the Jags or the Colts make the Super Bowl I do think the fact that Daniel Jones cannot move side to side very well and that their defense is just like meh. I mean, there's a lot of mad defenses here. The Patriots are one of them. But Daniel Jones not moving side to side plus meh.

50:44I don't like their chances. So I'm putting the Jags and the Colts in a tier below. So the only way I can be wrong is if one of the two of them make it or the Steelers. Otherwise, you're greasing the skids.

50:54Nick Shook:It's fine. It's fine. It's fine. hopefully the show has been more than fine thank you to everyone who has been tuning in we love you all especially Will Gavin who's still in the chat making it happen I'm going to be back in the studio hit the music Chris Babbona great job by the way every Monday night next Monday night by the way really good game Chargers stealing I mean sorry Chargers Eagles in a game that Eagles are really going to want and a big test for that Chargers offensive line. Tuesday on the show, myself, Colleen Wolfe. I can't freaking wait. We will see you then.

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