Quarterback Island Season Finale!

7:56Gregg Rosenthal:Yes. What?

7:58Steve Wyche:In the back room.

7:59Gregg Rosenthal:There he is. Where?

8:01Steve Wyche:A man who constructed a mathematical formula to determine who is in the MVP conversation. And I just felt like this is the show to talk May Stafford with you guys. It makes more sense than our preview show. And so for the listeners that aren't familiar, Patrick, with the science that you've brought to this May versus Stafford debate, just give them some context and where we're at right now. Hey, first and foremost, thanks to all the Quarterback Island viewers and listeners for facilitating my addition to this tentpole, which we enjoy tentpoles around here because it keeps the tent up and operating as we are a family within the tent.

8:43Colleen Wolfe:The lights are still on. Yes, for now. And so what I hoped to do was facilitate a farcical conversation surrounding the farcical conversation that is the most valuable player award and how nebulous and vibes-based it could be. So over the course of the season, I assigned points for winning, winning games against teams in primetime, winning games against other contenders in primetime games, with the point totals escalating as the season went on, and positive and negative points were awarded alongside the great mind trust that I had here within this NFL Daily franchise, which is mostly me bugging Jordan and Greg while they were doing the actual work.

9:26He has a spreadsheet. It's incredible. And the spreadsheet has revealed the results here after week 17. Drake May has 87 points. Wow. After a negative performance in prime time with the whole world watching against the Atlanta Falcons, Matthew Stafford is down to 61 points, which puts him in second place, but only by one point over Bo Nix. And so that's where we stand quarterback-wise in the conversation. Christian McCaffrey has exceeded a couple of quarterbacks now with 69 points. Nice performance for CMC. And otherwise, the most notable aspect is Myles Garrett. Once he started out with negative 100 points.

10:08Steve Wyche:For being a defensive player. Being a non-quarterback, right? Yes. Okay. Non-quarterback and a defensive player, which is a significant hindrance if you'd like to win this award. Seems so.

10:18Gregg Rosenthal:I'm taking hardcore notes over here. Which is, once again, a farcical award with no general parameters for how we decided. Oh, my God. And no real agreeance on what the criteria are. He has 47 points. Okay. It's a great performance by Myles Garrett.

10:33Colleen Wolfe:Okay. But the conversation scoring, which, again, is not my attempt to highlight who I believe should be the MVP. And yet? It's Drake May.

10:41Steve Wyche:And yet, Patrick, it is really funny because you made this conversation all about how it's all vibes based, right? And kind of ridiculous. And yet, because you know how the voters think and you kind of figured out what the formula is, primetime wins, leading in touchdowns, this or that, maybe it's not as vibe based as you think. because the formula has spit out who is now the favorite to win the award. Like, you have now nailed it. And it's really because what I've been saying all season is all that matters is whatever happens in weeks 15, 16, 17, like, that's who wins the award. That's basically how the voters do it.

11:24Steve Wyche:And that's where Drake May has made this big comeback points-wise. And which it seems like a silly way to facilitate a season-long award by picking out three weeks at the end. Thank you. Much in the same way that a lot of teams who consistently lose make hiring and firing decisions regarding the results within those final moments.

11:41Colleen Wolfe:Not dissimilar to Quarterback Island. I would say we're breaking up the segment. Quarterback Island has introspection, and you guys are aware of the task that's at hand. I think, you know, not to diminish the efforts of sports writers, but they're very proud of the things that they believe and their opportunity to say something. And when you give them a goal that is loosely defined, they're going to try to get their own personality in it by any means necessary. And that's how we've resulted in this award that nobody knows what we're voting for, why we're voting for it, or how it's going to work out.

12:12I'm going to stand up for sports writers and say this is the same thing that the College Football Selection Committee does as well. Yes. Yes. Okay. These are the College Football Selection Committee rules we're playing with. But equally bad. My mind is kind of blown here, Patrick, because it sounds like what started as a metaphor became a real equational system.

12:32Steve Wyche:It's become sentient. It's taken over.

12:35Gregg Rosenthal:It's not myopic.

12:40Steve Wyche:She did it.

12:41Gregg Rosenthal:She did. But we've come full circle back to the real equation can shine a light on the ridiculousness of the metaphor because there's a reason that the metaphor exists. It's because people aren't using the equation, but they are. I mean, whoa.

12:59Steve Wyche:Christopher Nolan. Without even knowing. I mean, there are weaknesses here. I would like to know what you would suggest otherwise. because if Matthew Stafford had had this game, let's say, in week seven, the three-interception game against Falcons, he would not have necessarily been in as commanding a position as he felt like he was in in the first place. But I mentioned this Monday night. I don't want to repeat myself, but the only thing that annoys me are the people that are super strident, how ridiculous it would be to pick one or the other. It's just a beauty contest, and you can make your case, but it's just like you're just kind of picking off whatever.

13:34Steve Wyche:They both had great seasons. It's not obvious whatsoever. Okay, so what was the point differential last night? Three points, right? Yeah. And they lose to Seattle by one. Matthew Stafford throws almost 500 yards to Seattle. And that's kind of – well, he lost that game too. But – You were pointing out, Patrick, if they had maybe called P.I. on the Falcons late in that game and the Rams go on to win that game, that that would have changed. Which is a great argument. The formula, which is ridiculous. Which is crazy because he still did not play well in that game, but he happened to make a play at the right time.

14:07And it's interesting, Greg, that you bring up a week seven idea to this because that's kind of what started this was the idea that games really mattered after week 10. And again, this is a season-long award in which the season's results are cumulative. And if we're going to diminish those first seven, eight, nine weeks of the season, then what's the point of all this? Matthew Stafford has played quarterback at a spectacular level for almost the entire season. doing things that even he in his great career has not been able to do consistently. It's really weird that a bad night in Atlanta seems to wipe all that away.

14:43But yet, nevertheless.

14:45Steve Wyche:It won't wipe it all away, especially because of the new voting method, which I always was stumping for, and it's one thing that I feel like I helped speak into existence. It used to just be you vote for one guy. Now you vote one to five, and that changes things up. It's literally the only reason why Josh Allen won MVP last year over Lamar Jackson. And so that adds a little more variability. I don't think Stafford is going to be lower than two on many. He's definitely going to be one on many. And so you never know, like, who wants to put Drake May or Stafford fourth, who wants to, you know. Yeah, who's going to bomb him.

15:17Steve Wyche:And I think it's going to be closer than people think, no matter what happens in Week 18. And I wouldn't be surprised if Stafford won in the end. Everyone thought Lamar had it in the bag at this point last year. All right. Not this guy. Well, here's the other thing, and Jordan will absolutely agree with me on this. Stafford could throw for 700 yards against the Arizona Cardinals, but because they're really not one of 32, their games don't count anymore. It's not in primetime either. Yeah, so it probably won't even check a box.

15:46Colleen Wolfe:Well, that's got to count for Drake May then, too, going up against the Jets, right? That should, but it was just so special. The Jets count because we talk about them. I think the problem— When's the last conversation you've had about the Arizona Cardinals?

15:58Steve Wyche:Right now. Right now. Thank you, Patrick. for creating something that's more powerful than all of us. Oh, he's gone. That was crazy. I hope he can come back for our Week 18 preview show. He's a big part of that. So, yeah. Let's put a pin in any Mae v. Stafford talk now. Two fantastic seasons by two young and old legends. Okay. The other obvious ones, I think, and you guys could tell me if I'm wrong. And this is a pretty long list to start off the episode with, but I don't think it's that crazy. I think Josh Allen is a clear yes, right? He's had a couple games where he didn't play his best, certainly against the Eagles.

16:47Steve Wyche:And I think that took him out of the MVP race, but he obviously is a yes. I think Justin Herbert doesn't really need to be discussed, but let me hear what you think. He's a yes.

16:59Gregg Rosenthal:He's on. Okay.

17:00Steve Wyche:I mean, I think that was...

17:01Gregg Rosenthal:You got a bunch of tape dogs in here. Okay.

17:03Steve Wyche:That was kind of the classic Justin Herbert game against the Texans, where if you were watching, you understood why maybe the numbers don't reflect how good he is. How good he is, because he got heated up, and that's happened over and over again. And then I'm willing to have a conversation, but to me, Dak Prescott has been consistent enough in everything that I wanted out of a quarterback. No arguments. Okay. Okay. We're all voting yes on Dak Prescott. Deuce to two more players now, Greg, that we're keeping. Okay, so we have five guys that I think are locked on. I mean, I saw Dak. I saw some quarterback rankings.

17:39Steve Wyche:I'll say it because I hate when people just whine. Were they made by anyone in the room?

17:42Gregg Rosenthal:No.

17:42Steve Wyche:They were on The Athletic. It was Jeff Howe. He had Dak Prescott ninth, and I'm just thinking. Yeah, he's watching numbers. He's watching formulas and clouds. The formulas are great for Dak Prescott.

17:54Colleen Wolfe:Yeah.

17:54Steve Wyche:And I think Dak Prescott's feelings were a little hurt when everyone was kind of like, oh, it's so great to see real ball back with Phillip Rivers, you know, calling everything and changing. And this is how football used to be. It's like, how about Dak Prescott, bro? That's our generation's poor man's Peyton Manning. Here we go.

18:12Colleen Wolfe:So what are we doing about the injuries?

18:13Steve Wyche:Now it gets more interesting. Okay, we have five people on the island. Does anyone want to nominate someone from the 10 people that were on the island previously? to be kicked off. It could be an injury guy. It could be anyone.

18:31Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah, well, Jordan rolls. Patrick Mahomes off the island.

18:34Steve Wyche:Yeah, Patrick, he's out.

18:35Gregg Rosenthal:He's injured. And I will say, I've been following the quarterback island debate. A lot of times I get either tagged in it or sent it, and I love it, by the way. Keep that up. That's awesome. I love that all the time. You could make some argument that even before the injury, Patrick Mahomes was not consistently playing up to the automatic status. There should have at least been a conversation about Patrick Mahomes before the injury. Now, he's off to me because he's hurt, but we could have had the conversation about it.

19:10Steve Wyche:There is some wiggle room with the injury stuff. We left Lamar Jackson on controversially last time around. If Patrick Mahomes was having an MVP caliber season, I think we would be talking about leaving him on. But he didn't. And I think that's a fair point.

19:26Gregg Rosenthal:And also, we left Lamar on understanding there was maybe a week left before he was coming back.

19:31Steve Wyche:This is the end of the year quarterback island.

19:35Gregg Rosenthal:He's not coming back this season, and he was kind of on the fringe before that. He is a quarterback who defines a generation, absolutely. But for the purposes of this episode of Quarterback Island, he is off the island.

19:47Colleen Wolfe:So Patrick Mahomes is off the island.

19:49Steve Wyche:Well, we got to vote.

19:50Colleen Wolfe:Daniel Jones.

19:51Steve Wyche:We've got to vote. Let's vote on Patrick Mahomes. So, yeah. I vote no. He's off the island. I vote no. I did think the second part of what you said in terms of him being borderline was almost as important as the injury. Because I am putting myself in a place where he's having an MVP season, MVP caliber. Let's say he was kind of like Carson Wentz, you know, in that one season. Or maybe even Derek Carr in that one season where he gets hurt late. Or Patrick Mahomes. Let's say in one of his MVP seasons he got hurt here in week 14, 15. I think that would be a conversation. Yes. But, yeah, it's crazy.

20:25Steve Wyche:He was playing some of the worst football in his career right before he got hurt. Even though he's great. His career was a high standard, but he still was basically leading them and rushing and everything as well. So let's look at the passing numbers. He was still playing at a high level. Okay, you mentioned Daniel Jones. I know this hurts, but, yes, that's an obvious one. He's got to go.

20:41Colleen Wolfe:I'm so sad for the whole situation in Indy. I saw your thing with Carly. Thank you so much, Carly. Yeah. Everyone should check it out. Thank you. Carly. Where can they find it? I haven't read it yet.

20:54Steve Wyche:Irsay Gordon at The Athletic.

20:56Gregg Rosenthal:Yes. Wrote a profile. Fredded a lot over it. Honored to write it. It was awesome.

21:01Steve Wyche:We might hit it a little more on the preview show. I think that's a good time for it when we're talking Colts. It will be remembered, though, that Daniel Jones played well enough to be on the island for half of this season. Well, which goes counter to the argument Patrick has made the first 10 games of the year don't matter. Matters to us. Not in the MVP. but it matters to us. Okay, so there are three other players that are on the island who we could table for now if we wanted. Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, and Jordan Love that we haven't talked about. Jordan Love's got to go. Whoa.

21:38Gregg Rosenthal:Tell us why. He's got to go. I mean, I don't think he's been great. You know me. I've always been on the fence with Jordan Love. He's incredibly gifted, but he's never done anything where I'm like, whoo that's that guy okay then he gets crushed a couple weeks ago so he hasn't played in a couple weeks he has not when i look at some of the other people that could go on he doesn't belong ahead of them well we can get to them later but that's more of my argument we could talk about the arm strength we could talk about this and that since you reduced it to eight greg yeah and he wears number 10 i don't know if i would have put him on it was 10 i really want to i i i want to table him

22:14Steve Wyche:for now because I want to compare him to some of the other people. But where I would push back on you would be the moments that make you say, wow, that Bears game to start out, he was playing outstanding football. The week before against the Lions, he was playing incredible football. I think in terms of when we put him on the island and it was very close, we weren't sure. The stats would have him in the top three or four in terms of success rate, EPA play, all that. He was right on the borderline. And then right after, I think he went on a heater after and I felt great about putting him on. So the fact that he gets hurt here with a concussion, that he's going to be back for the playoffs and everything, and he was playing great, I just want to compare him to other people and maybe just hold off for now.

22:59Okay.

22:59Gregg Rosenthal:I think it is fair to table him. I think there are two truths in both of these positions that you guys have taken. One being that I do think that it kind of hurts Jordan Love's case a little bit for the last few weeks. to go out and see Malik Willis play the way that he did. Gorgeous, gorgeous football. And then also, to Greg's point, the ceilings for Jordan Love are higher than almost any quarterback in the league. And to me, it's like when you see the highs, you're all in.

23:29Steve Wyche:Big eye roll here from Weiss. Well, that's because the guys. The ISO wasn't on him, so I had to tell the audience. It's an audio medium. Not saying that, but for the guys, I think we should suggest to possibly go in over him, their ceilings are higher. Okay. That's why, I mean, again, not hating, but I am hating.

23:49Gregg Rosenthal:That's the other thing, too. That's why I love about Quarterback Island, to be clear. That is part of the magic of Quarterback Island, is that we're not taking these really antagonistic positions about these players. This is a fun place to discuss all of it and the range of opinions, and that's why I love it. Because we're not ranking them, Greg.

24:11Steve Wyche:I mean, we're not ranking them. It's the guys who are defining the season. Jordan Love, he's kind of come in and out. He's been in a lot of big moments, unfortunately.

24:19Colleen Wolfe:A lot of fourth quarter game-winning drives for him, too.

24:24Steve Wyche:Let's put a couple other guys who can go in there right in that box as well. Lamar Jackson, I actually don't think is going to be a hard conversation. To me, Patrick Mahomes had a much better case to stay on the island for how he was staying. So if we voted Mahomes off.

24:39Gregg Rosenthal:This is, we're straight-nosed. It feels real weird to do it. I know. Same as Mahomes.

24:46Steve Wyche:And he might play in week 18, Lamar Jackson, as we're taping this. We don't know. No. But for him, I think it's even more clear than Mahomes that he was not playing at his level. Mahomes is still like, for instance, if you look at QBR, Mahomes is fifth on the season. He was not having a bad statistical season. And eyeballs for about 10 weeks he was playing well. Lamar was never really right after he came back. So maybe we made a mistake keeping him on, but that's what you do with all-time great. Yeah, no, he's got to go. Okay, he's off. He gone. We've made a lot of room. Look at this. We've made a lot of room.

25:22Steve Wyche:We've kicked four people off the island. Do we want to hold off on talking about Darnold, who feels like— Why is he on the border? He's a— Why is he on the fence?

25:33Gregg Rosenthal:I don't think he's on the fence. Yeah, I—

25:35Steve Wyche:I think we need to tackle this. Oh, okay. Yeah. Let's get to this. Let's just dive into it. Okay, let's dive into it. Colleen, why don't you start?

25:42Colleen Wolfe:Okay. I think that Sam Darnold, yes, the turnovers really hurt him recently. But the fact that he has this team where they are and his connection with JSN is unreal. He's thrown some beautiful, beautiful, we're looking at one right now, passes to him. And I think that his career, he's seen a resurgence. I like him still on the island. You know that I'm a Sam Darnold fan. But I don't know. Am I alone? I don't even know why we're talking about him not being on the island. Yeah. Oh, wow. I was insinuating the opposite.

26:18Steve Wyche:No, what are we doing here? I think you could make an argument, but I probably am not going to get there. He's not playing good. He's not playing well. For the last five weeks, they are winning with Sam Darnold. I think to be on quarterback island, you got to be the reason because. And I think it does bring up an interesting question for this exercise, which is how much are we waiting the last four or five weeks versus the season overall? Because we're going to talk about some guys who are finishing really strong. But to me, it's the last one of the year that the whole body of the work does matter.

26:55Steve Wyche:And that helps Darnold out. Because if we're talking about the last five weeks, I don't think he's even close to being on the island.

27:01Gregg Rosenthal:I go full body here. I'll go the last five weeks. And for me, that does give Sam Darnold full body of the season, gives him points for me. However, I gave him even more of a leash here and went the last seven weeks. He is below Bryce Young. He's below Jacoby Brissett. He's below Baker Mayfield. He's playing terrible football right now. He's below Spencer Rattler in terms of EPA per dropback through that span. He's at negative 0.11 EPA per dropback. nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and he's not getting pressured a heck of a lot more than a lot of those other players. The thing is, is like, you guys know that, like, I love Sam Darnold in this offense.

27:46Gregg Rosenthal:And I think he has the resilience that is needed at the position. And I think he's a perfect fit for what the Seahawks are trying to do when he protects the football. And it's just that turnover to interception ratio. And like I said, I gave him a longer leash even, seven weeks, not just four. and for me I just I could not quite get there in terms of waiting the overall body of work with a almost half the season at that point I see some of that but I mean I see some of the picture tip

28:14Steve Wyche:balls right yeah but he that's that's a feature not a bug like he is among the league leaders in tip balls it's I'm glad you brought that up like that's something that he struggles with for whatever reason is he tipping him I'm saying like they maybe maybe he's staring down his receivers Maybe it's predictable. Maybe they're not catching them. That could be part of the problem. A lot of them's at the line of scrimmage. He throws the ball into traffic. I mean, look, I was at that incredible game against the Rams where he didn't play great in the first half, and then once he got rolling, he was a rock star.

28:51Gregg Rosenthal:That's the resilience I'm talking about.

28:52Steve Wyche:But that game's a good example because, to me, he has two drives in that game. And they won with him, and he made a great overtime drive. But he's only there. I don't want to make this the who's the quarterback on the best teams island. I want it to be who's playing the best. And they flashed a stat in that Panthers game where he did not play well in that game. He did not play well in that game. He did not play well in that game. And it's been a while where they said they are dead last in the NFL in third and long conversions. And to me, that's a bit of a quarterback stat. A bit of a quarterback issue.

29:22A lot of it's a big part of that offense. Dead last! It's a big part of that offensive scheme. You can talk about the Kyle Shanahan, like they can't come from behind and things like that because of that scheme, unless you get some extraordinary explosives.

29:32Colleen Wolfe:Well, okay, so for me, I'm now looking at Jordan Love versus Sam Darnold in terms of who stays.

29:39Steve Wyche:Well, there's also some other guys. Okay, so it sounds right now like Colleen and Steve are a yes, and Jordan and I are a no. And so that is a natural table. And I think we're at a point here where actually we could do a natural break. It's actually time for our news of the day. And that news, of course, is for the first time in QB Island history, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are no longer on the island. So thank you for your service, Josh Allen. You know, and Herbert might be the only two like long term survivors.

30:17Gregg Rosenthal:Throw it on a social graphic.

30:19Steve Wyche:Let's take a quick break and we'll come back. We'll talk about some of the people that might be joining our island residents.

30:26Colleen Wolfe:Oh, boy.

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35:14Steve Wyche:back on quarterback island. I said it was going to be tough during the break because I started looking at these names. Yeah. These young men who have played fantastic this year. We're going to have to leave some people off. And you said, that's why it's quarterback island, Jordan. It's tough.

35:31Gregg Rosenthal:It's tough. It's agonizing, you guys. But that's part of getting to the island is making that swim.

35:36Colleen Wolfe:It's not supposed to be easy. Okay, so you know who... Still waters around the island. I will mention some people...

35:42Gregg Rosenthal:Remember, every single one of us four has the Riptide available to us.

35:48Steve Wyche:What is the Riptide? I still don't know.

35:50Gregg Rosenthal:The Riptide is when one person, at least you used the right name for it this time. The Riptide is when a person can autonomously decide to rip one player off of quarterback island without putting it to a vote, and it is done. However, the group must then decide who can replace that player on quarterback. But you have no control. That's the riptide.

36:15Steve Wyche:Don't hold it. Four?

36:17Gregg Rosenthal:Sweeps you away.

36:18Steve Wyche:Don't piss me off. Or anyone else.

36:20Gregg Rosenthal:Didn't you use yours already, Greg?

36:22Steve Wyche:That was last year. I didn't understand the rules. No one did. To get Gino on.

36:26Gregg Rosenthal:And technically, he used something he calls the ripcord, which I guess is a different thing. Right. Right.

36:32Steve Wyche:That's on you. You know, riptide, it's very confusing. There's a lot of players who are obviously not going to be on the island. We don't need to talk about Brady Cook, obviously. But just some notable quarterbacks I wanted to mention that I don't think are going to come up for a vote today. Tyler Shook in the Offensive Rookie of the Year mix. We're watching you. You're on the watch list. Baker Mayfield obviously got kicked off last time. It's gotten worse since then. I don't think we need to talk about him. Has indeed. Jalen Hurts got kicked off last time. He was the reason we did another episode.

37:05Steve Wyche:I think at the end of last year because he won the Super Bowl and everything. And we were feeling bad about that. I don't think it's a hard conversation. He's an obvious no right now. And so those are just a couple of the notable no's. Joey Burrow too, right? Well, okay. Let's go to Joe Burrow. I think Joe Burrow is interesting. Because it's like I'm not nominating him. Okay. But I'm not not nominating him because I do want to think about being consistent for everyone here. if you look at the last five weeks in any statistical measure, yeah, he's in the top five, basically, in advanced stats and counting stats.

37:45Steve Wyche:I don't need to go through them all. And if we're going to potentially put some people onto quarterback island based on how they're playing, you know, primarily in the last five, six weeks in the season, I think Trevor Lawrence and Brock Purdy are going to be interesting names that come up, then at least I think trying to be consistent, It's not crazy to think about Joe Burrow. So why wouldn't you say Shuck? Well, I just would say Shuck is not at that level of play. Okay.

38:15Gregg Rosenthal:I will say in terms of EPA per drop back among qualified passers, and I'm in my weeks 10 to 17 framework right now, Tyler Shuck is outside of the top 10, and we're doing eight, obviously. Joe Burrow is fifth.

38:31Steve Wyche:Oh, he's killing it.

38:32Gregg Rosenthal:In terms of qualified players.

38:34Steve Wyche:Now, is he defining the position? I think he takes a pretty big negative in that he's missed most of the season. I think that is part of it. And the bigger one for me, and it's why I probably am leaning, but I want to go through all the names to him off, is that they did get it shut out one of those five weeks. If you've only played like five weeks that we're basing on, and your team scored zero points in one of those five weeks, and in the biggest game of the season, even though you went crazy in the snow, you turn the ball over two times at the very end, then it makes it harder. He would have had to maybe be so exceptional, MVP level.

39:14Gregg Rosenthal:He would have had to have a little more rule of cool with him too, I think, making those plays in the snow. I'm not voting him on. I'm saying no to Joe Burrow. Look forward to it next year.

39:24Colleen Wolfe:I think he'd be on the island if he didn't miss so much of the season because of the sample size that we have from him and knowing what he's done before. But even after he came back from the injury, he's played really well. But I think it's just missed too many games. Guys, this is going to make Joe more melancholy.

39:39Gregg Rosenthal:Oh, no. It is true. Won't somebody think of his feelings.

39:41Steve Wyche:I mean, they did get shut out like immediately after he was really sad, which is not quarterback. I hate this. I'm like the biggest Joe Pro fan in the world. I hate him. I love the guy. All right. We did vote no.

39:53Colleen Wolfe:How about someone go on? Yeah. Please. How about Mr. Brock Purdy? A thousand. He's got to be on this island. Since he returned, the Niners offense has lit up, and he's done so well, multiple games now, with five total touchdowns. He's good with his legs and his arm. I think that he's so efficient. This is someone who should 100 % be on the island.

40:18Gregg Rosenthal:Right now, he is one of the best perimeter passers in the NFL. Right now, he also only trails Drake May in terms of EPA per dropback. He was always known as a kind of in the middle of the field type of passer. Now he's perimeter. He's moving the ball. But, I mean, something Greg says all the time when he's talking about quarterback island, defining the position. I don't know anyone who's playing the position better than him right now behind an offensive line that's rotating. He had George Kittle sometimes. Sometimes he has not. He's got Juwan, let it be known, Jenny. That he's throwing the ball to.

40:57Colleen Wolfe:I just said it last night on the free game show. I said something about Juwan Jennings, and he said, let it be known. And I stopped dead because I was like, yes. And then I was like, oh, it's a joke. I get the joke now. Damn it. And now there's just silence. Hold on. Let me keep going. Let it be known.

41:12Steve Wyche:But, I mean, he's just. I mean, you could say ho on NFL Daily. Maybe not. I'm not saying he's a ho. Shelby Harris did. I just think the fact that Shelby was great in saying let it be known, like four different ways. Like, when he makes a play, like, let it be known Juwan Jennings is making a play. Let it be known. So, Juwan Jennings is one of the best supporting actors of this season. Really? So is Shelby Harris. And, you know, look, Brock's got the Dougie going on. We just showed him. He's doing the Dougie. But, to me, look at Brock. I mean, the last three games, 11 touchdown passes. He had the stinker.

41:44They haven't lost.

41:45Steve Wyche:He's doing it.

41:47Gregg Rosenthal:He's on five interceptions on the season.

41:49Steve Wyche:He's doing it, like, in big moments. You're watching him. He's giving you the wow factor. He is defining the position. the only argument that I think you could have against him is the playing time. That he still played less than Mac Jones this year, which is crazy. And that's why I thought we had to talk Burrow, because if we're going to put Purdy on, they've played around the same amount of time. And so you at least have to think about Burrow if we're willing to accept it. One's playing with number one seed, too. Ultimately, I'm with you guys. I think he's a yes.

42:22Gregg Rosenthal:Let me correct myself. Nine interceptions on the season. And still a yes to me, but I was looking at my 10 to 17 parameters. Right.

42:28Steve Wyche:And that's when he's got 16 and 16 and five in that run. And I think he's better than he was when he was an MVP candidate and sort of had the same moment that Matthew Stafford had on primetime and lost in a big spot to lose the MVP. We are yes on Brock Purdy. I thought that would be tricky.

42:46Gregg Rosenthal:You seem to have come into this show with a lot of thoughts, Greg.

42:49Steve Wyche:I just made a list. I thought he'd be at seven or eight. It's a real switch here.

42:53Colleen Wolfe:It's a real change from how you normally are. And you are dealing with a fairly favorable Brock Purdy crowd right here, too. That's fair. Okay, so now there's six spots taken.

43:03Steve Wyche:There's six spots taken. You could always change your mind as we go, but there's six spots taken. I'm saying we always said.

43:09Gregg Rosenthal:Y 'all have the riptide available to us.

43:11Steve Wyche:Or if we had nine on, we could eventually decide to kick someone. Just because I respect him and I want him to mention him on this show, So since we've kicked Jared Goff off, he's actually played better.

43:24Colleen Wolfe:Yes.

43:25Steve Wyche:And if we're just recognizing great quarterback play for this season, I think the first eight to ten weeks hurt him a little bit. Don't think it was one of his best seasons. For the last four or five weeks, he's been outstanding. He's been what? Outstanding. Outstanding? Not against Minnesota on Christmas. That probably got him off. Before that, I think it was one of the best four-game stretches of his entire career. And they've lost games. And that's why quarterback is not about – I think he's showing he can do it when it's not great around him. Until that Minnesota game. I would agree. I think he was playing – like individually kind of grading his performance every week.

44:04Steve Wyche:I think he was on a heater and they lost. He was playing well. I guess I just need to play better stretches, which will show you how good of a player that he is. And then again, that Minnesota game. The Minnesota game killed any possible chance of making it onto an eight. That's a no for Jared Goff. But just wanted to give him the respect of getting voted on.

44:22Gregg Rosenthal:Can I?

44:23Steve Wyche:Please. Do it. Do it.

44:26Gregg Rosenthal:The floor is yours. To the panel. Do it. A1. Trevor. Oh. Lauren. Easy. Yeah, he's on my list too. Defining the way the position is played this year. Defining the story of the quarterback this year. defining a team that is exceeding expectations and a playoff team and a team that is rolling right now and is really clicking in that offense after a little bit of an up and down and consistent start. Really, really fun to watch. Has great skill guys around him getting help from a run game, getting help from an offensive line, sure. But Trevor Lawrence is also making things happen. He's not making that one catastrophic decision per game that tanks the game.

45:05Gregg Rosenthal:He's actually lifting the floor of this offense quite well. I said it after one of the best games I've ever seen him play, probably the best game I've ever seen him play in his career, a couple of weeks ago. Trevor Lawrence, the playoffs are in the distance, but first up is quarterback freaking Island. Welcome, my friend. I would agree. And I tell you, the playoffs, if teams are not afraid of Jacksonville right now, they will be. Yeah. Because they're killing on both sides of the ball. But Clemson Trevor is the reason why. We saw Clemson Trevor early in the season against Denver on Monday night, and now he has really dialed it up.

45:41And this is where James Gladstone, the new GM, by getting Jacoby Myers, it almost is like, okay, now Trevor's kind of like, I've got five or six guys to throw the ball to. I don't have to focus. Brian Thomas Jr. is the one player. We don't talk about them. We don't talk about much because you've got Parker Washington, Travis Etienne, you know, the tight end, Brent Strange. I mean, is it Strange?

46:02Gregg Rosenthal:Yeah, you're right. Yeah, you got it. But he's spreading the ball out. It's no longer, I got to get the ball to this guy or that guy. It is like the world has opened up to Clemson Trevor. Nine rushing touchdowns, too?

46:15Colleen Wolfe:That's what I was going to say. He's using his legs, too, and not really turning over the ball. I know he had one interception this past game, but otherwise, really clean football.

46:26Steve Wyche:Your eyes were lighting up just with Steve talking to Trevor Lawrence. We've got some big Lawrence fans here. I am leaning.

46:33Gregg Rosenthal:Well, famously, I have not always been a Trevor.

46:36Steve Wyche:And I'm leaning, yes, but I do just want to make sort of the point that if he's on, it's just for the last five weeks because he would be below average for the first chunk of the season. So it is recognizing, I think, that you can be so hot late in the season, and he is playing as well as any quarterback in football, that it's so exceptional that you just have to put him on because numbers-wise, This was kind of surprising to me. So I went through five numbers just to have sort of a blanket of like, okay, just what's their profile statistically?

47:11Gregg Rosenthal:A charcuterie board.

47:12Steve Wyche:Yeah, and season long. And this is QBR, it's EPA per play, it's success rate, it's completion percentage over expected, and then it's PFF. PFF, which is more subjective, that's the only spot where he's even in the top 10. They have him 10th on a play-to-play basis. Just pure numbers. The other ones are 19th, 17th, 14th, and then 28th in completion percentage over expected because he's not always that accurate. He is an average quarterback if you take the whole season and bucket his stats. That also is not really including rushing, which is a big factor for him. But it's just something to point out that he is a really unique case if we're putting him on.

47:48Gregg Rosenthal:Yes, and I think that's all fair to point out. And it also is fair to say that when you turn on his tape and you see some of the throws that he has made, including some of the out-of-structure play-extending throws, and when you also do see him use his legs and factor that into the equation, which we have done so for other quarterbacks who have been on the quarterback.

48:10Steve Wyche:Oh, yeah, you have to. QBR, by the way, does. I misspoke there.

48:12Gregg Rosenthal:I would say, like, the highs of this stretch that he's on right now completely lift the rest of the season. I agree. I vote yes. And real quick, one last thing on the Jags. We're voting. We're all voting yes. Trevor Lawrence is on QB Island for the first time. There we go. So now, first off, does anybody look more like an island guy than Trevor?

48:36Colleen Wolfe:Golden Child, come on. But can we get over the small market thing? Because they are London's team. London is a large market. Shad Khan, one of his recruiting, this is a conversation I've had with Shad, one of his recruiting elements to players is, come work for us. We can get you on billboards over in London. You can be the American football Messi. Oh.

48:58Gregg Rosenthal:Okay? So you can be all on. Yeah, I don't buy the small market team thing either, but I do love how Duval, like Jacksonville fan, embraced Liam Cohen is because he will never miss a moment to be petty. And I mean that as a compliment. Like he will not miss a moment. And the fan base has been dying for it. And I love it for them because he's got the one-liners and he just goes for it. And it's awesome. He gives no Fs. Florida man.

49:26Steve Wyche:They've been averaging over 30 points a game since that bye where he really turned things around. And, yeah, they've won 12 games. They're one of the stories of the season. He's on. We only have one spot remaining. Can I come up with my perpetual landmine guy then? Oh, man. Bo Nix. Okay.

49:44Gregg Rosenthal:I'm so glad you brought him up. Bo Nix. Okay, you talk about a guy going on a heater. He had about a three - or four-week run where he was killing it. His team is winning. Then he keeps doing this, oh, my gosh, he's playing like crap for two quarters, and then he kills it on the final drive. When we're looking at some of these other people on here, including a guy like Jordan Love who's on the fence, do you say, like, Bo Nix is doing it for a team that's number one seed right now, and they're winning more so because of him? He's not losing them ballgames.

50:13Steve Wyche:Are they winning because of him? Well, they're winning because of their defense. Are they winning with him? And so that to me is like... I would say this, though. he's making the plays when they have to make him in compliments to the defense. That's why I'm saying I don't think we can ignore him. I don't think we can ignore him. He's got the numbers, not just wins and losses. He's got the rushes. He does things to put defenses in conflict all over the place. You're saying to yourself, okay, he's as good as Josh Allen? No, not right now. But I don't think we can move forward without having a conversation as to whether he belongs in the final eight.

50:52Absolutely.

50:52Gregg Rosenthal:And this is what it's going to come down to for me with quarterback Island because I wouldn't put Bryce Young on there. We hadn't talked about him yet. Obviously, Phillip Rivers, I mean, fun well lasted. I'm talking about people I haven't talked about yet that we haven't mentioned, but no, we're not talking about any of these people.

51:09Steve Wyche:I think we only have one more guy, Caleb Williams, that hasn't been mentioned that would be a serious discussion. And on that note, just so we can mention that C.J. Stroud, it would be a no for all of us, correct? Yes, CJ's not. He's had his moments, but he just hasn't been consistent.

51:22Gregg Rosenthal:And that's what I was about to say. For me, it comes down to who is on the island between Bo Nix and Caleb Williams. That's what it comes down to.

51:31Steve Wyche:That's legit. I love that. To me, Darnold or Love, especially Love, have a stronger case to me than Bo Nix. So my case against Bo Nix. Okay, you say he's got the stats, but he doesn't have the stats. And that's important to me because I did that profile of all the different metrics. Bo Nix, 13th in QBR, 16th EPA, 17th success rate, 24th completion percentage over expected, 17th PFF. And that reflects how I feel watching football every week. If I'm slotting in all the quarterbacks and who's doing exceptional things, who's helping, who's not, he, to me, is somewhere in that 14 to 17 range. Then you can't put Caleb on.

52:12Steve Wyche:range. You can't put him on. I think Caleb will be an interesting talk too, but the difference that Caleb has, I think, at least over Bo if I'm comparing those two, although putting my cards on the table, I think Love or Darnold would be better picks than either one, I think. Caleb has defined the season because of the plays that he's made, because of the wow factor, because of the moments that Bo's been great, but Bo hasn't had those moments. And to me, I'm knocking him for the first half of the season too. He hasn't had those moments. That's when they won the ball game. when he was making those moments.

52:45Caleb's not completing 60 % of his passes.

52:48Colleen Wolfe:The game against the Giants is like such a... That's a moment. That's a big moment.

52:52Steve Wyche:Such a moment. It's a big moment. I think he needed to have like a Trevor-like run to make up for his first half. And to me, he hasn't been at that level.

53:00Colleen Wolfe:He had like three games where he was 300 plus in a row. He has thrown for a lot of passing yards. Yeah.

53:07Steve Wyche:I mean, up until last week, he was rolling for about a month. Right. Right, but do you think he, like, I think that's a good example. The Jacksonville game, for instance. Like, he throws for over 300 yards in that game. Do you think, like, that's a QB Island performance? That was kind of, to me, a QB Island off. And Trevor wins that game. Yeah, I mean, I think they got dominated in every phase in that game. I think as a team. But, you know, again, when I look at Caleb, who I love, and I would love to get him on the island. Let's talk about him. But I was saying, based on your arguments, of what you were just saying against Bo Nix, and you can't put Caleb in that conversation.

53:44Steve Wyche:If you're using that as the criteria. That is not the only one for me, but I think if it's supporting what I'm seeing. I'm using stats. I'm using define the position. Greg's adding a sixth gear. No. I'm saying he would be a guy to me that would have to make up for in stats what he's lacking in sort of eye test.

54:02Gregg Rosenthal:I think the story of who Caleb Williams has become as the franchise quarterback of that team and the way that he has continued to thrive in the most unlikely moments is something that dramatically lifts the stat sort of truth to me. I agree with that, absolutely. I also think that Bo Nix for similarly, you know, same second-year quarterback, same kind of thing, Bo Nix, the way he runs this offense and the way you can tell between play caller and quarterback, the minute that Sean Payton in-game takes the training wheels off and lets him go, when those types of things, when they're on, again, the ceiling is higher than many of the quarterbacks on the island.

54:52Gregg Rosenthal:So that's what I'm kind of stuck on. Caleb Williams' ceiling is making miracles happen. He's insane. Bo Nix is ceiling, but in flashes, right? Making miracles happen in miracle improbability moments. And Bo Nix, his ceiling is games like a couple of weeks ago when, you know, he's throwing for multiple touchdowns and Sean Payton is just letting him cook all up and down the field to Courtland Sutton. So that's where I'm stuck, truly, between these two. And I know we've tabled it. And what I meant to point out earlier, I wanted to point out, yes, I know we've tabled Jordan Love and Sam Darnold. But these two second-year quarterbacks, they are defining the position.

55:33Colleen Wolfe:I would agree with that. I think with Bo Nix, he's just been too up and down for me. It hasn't been as consistent of a rise and as steady of a development as we've seen with Caleb Williams. So for me, that puts Caleb over Bo Nix. It's crazy it sounds, and it's very surface-based, but Caleb's just more fun to watch. That too.

55:56Steve Wyche:I think that should be part of it. That's why Jordan Love, to me, gets a bonus. Because to me, he makes the wow throw. Don't find it very amusing and fun to watch.

56:07Colleen Wolfe:I don't find it amusing. He's not the thrill ride for me. Since I did it before.

56:13Gregg Rosenthal:I just saw Steve's dad face for the first time. Not my type. Actually, I'm not very amused by you missing curfew. Yeah, like I just saw it for the first time. That's incredible.

56:27Steve Wyche:That's incredible. I think even that we're strongly considering Caleb for a top eight spot, which I am too. I am. I love it. Belize these numbers. But I do want to bring him up because I think that other stuff has to be so exceptional to put this into context. And some of this is from the first half. Like Bo Nix, I think he's playing his best down the stretch. But in all those stats, kind of just going through him, 16th QBR, 15th EPA per play, 28th success rate, second to last in completion percentage over expected, which tracks. Like he misses throws you expect him to make and he makes throws you don't expect him to make.

57:01Steve Wyche:These guys drop a ton of passes. And then 15th in PFF. So there isn't really a great statistical argument for Caleb. It's all the other stuff. Which is significant. Which is significant.

57:16Gregg Rosenthal:That's part of Quarterback Island. I know.

57:19Steve Wyche:But here's the thing.

57:20Gregg Rosenthal:We also still have to talk about Sam and Jordan.

57:24Steve Wyche:Yes.

57:26Gregg Rosenthal:Four guys, one spot.

57:28Steve Wyche:Four guys, one spot. Does anyone want to just go out right now and at least just say, who is your guy out of those four? To put on. To put on right now. Because I think that's what this season finale is coming down to, Frank. I'll go first. Because none of us have any questions about the seven guys that are on right now compared to these four, right? Correct. I would love to put Caleb Williams on. I think he's rolling right now in this offense. It's something I just said, that when you watch the Bears play, you can take all the sense. Look at how many passes his guys drop. His numbers could be better.

58:07His wow factor could be better. Maybe their win total could be better if he had some guys who consistently hung on to the ball.

58:13Colleen Wolfe:Well, Jaday Walker, if he caught that ball, which he did the game before and was the hero, and also he had hardly played. All right, let's be real, though.

58:24Steve Wyche:He's just not as accurate as these other quarterbacks. Yes, I went and checked. He does have a lot of drops. You know who has the most, actually? Bo Nix. Yeah. Trevor Lawrence has the most. Bo Nix is second. And Caleb is third. So it's these three guys. Wow.

58:36Gregg Rosenthal:However, weeks 10 through 17, my parameters, Caleb Williams has thrown the fewest interceptions of any quarterback in qualifying.

58:43Steve Wyche:He prevents negative plays better than any of these quarterbacks on the edge in terms of sack avoidance and interception avoidance. So it's a nice combo of like flash and not making huge mistakes other than missing gimme's sometimes. Like that he has. There were a couple of throws in that 49ers game that he wants back for all the great throws that he makes. But that's been part of the experience.

59:09Gregg Rosenthal:I do love all of these guys. I think at least two of them were talking about qualities that we love in quarterbacks, too, which is resilience. Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, late game scenarios, Sam Darnold, resilience. I don't know necessarily that. Now, the thing about the Broncos is situationally overall, they've won close games. They've done so by navigating and by his in part, but the collective as a whole, ability to close these games out when they're close.

59:38Steve Wyche:He's got the best line.

59:39Gregg Rosenthal:Or set up the game-winning field goal. That great defense hasn't been as great either. That's fair.

59:46Colleen Wolfe:He's so close to becoming the Bears' first franchise quarterback to throw for 4 ,000 yards. I cannot believe that that's never happened.

59:55Steve Wyche:I came into this liking Jordan Love, and if you guys were in on Jordan Love, I would be in on Jordan Love too because I do just think he's played the position at a higher level consistently than Caleb Williams. But you guys have kind of convinced me. I just hate the fact that he took a shot and knocked out with a concussion might be the deciding factor here. But I think in the spirit of what we're talking about QB Island-wise, of defining the position and that little something extra, the lanyap. The lanyap, there you go.

1:00:30Colleen Wolfe:That's it.

1:00:30Steve Wyche:Maybe it is Caleb, unless you have a...

1:00:33Colleen Wolfe:No, I'm all about Caleb.

1:00:34Steve Wyche:So who's coming off? Okay, so let's vote Caleb Williams. I vote yes. He's on. Colleen Wolf votes yes.

1:00:41Gregg Rosenthal:He is on. I vote yes as well for Caleb Williams. A quarterback who I believe is among the top players defining the position this season. Yes.

1:00:51Steve Wyche:I think we've done it. We have to formally. Wait, do we have to bomb anybody off? I hate that we do this. I hate that this happens, but the governor's council, who I report to, who actually funds all of Quarterback Island, they require that we officially do vote off the two guys. But no, we don't have anything. Unless I'm crazy, we have eight guys on QB Island, and we have to officially vote no. on Sam Darnold. That's painful. Bye, bro.

1:01:18Colleen Wolfe:Well, I could still go yes.

1:01:20Steve Wyche:I like what you did there. Colleen is going yes.

1:01:23Gregg Rosenthal:Okay, I see. I would say, if it were still 10,

1:01:29Steve Wyche:it's Bo and Jordan.

1:01:30Gregg Rosenthal:If it were still 10, I'd put Jordan and then Bo still on.

1:01:33Steve Wyche:Yeah, if it were still 10. I would put Darnold ahead of them. I would put Love and Darnold, but let's vote officially on Jordan Love. I vote no. Oh, Jordan Love, no. It's all a no. And that's done it. Wow. Play the music. I don't know what music. We don't have celebratory music.

1:01:51Gregg Rosenthal:Wait just one moment.

1:01:53Steve Wyche:No way. It's not happening. Simon Collinger. Just kidding.

1:01:56Gregg Rosenthal:Play us out. No. No, you don't need to play us out.

1:02:01Steve Wyche:You had me. Is she going to use the Riptide? I thought she was going to use it on Drake May. No, I'm just kidding. She's just like, I just love Stafford so much. You know that Jordan was watching that game Monday night and be like, I can't believe this is happening.

1:02:17Gregg Rosenthal:No. I think that's the first time I've ever actually made Greg, like, just a little question.

1:02:22Steve Wyche:That was a good bit. We were like, Simon Cowell?

1:02:26Gregg Rosenthal:What else?

1:02:27Steve Wyche:Let's name the official residents of Quarterback Island season finale, we think, season two. Josh Allen, congratulations. The consistency over the last two years. You deserve it. Dak Prescott, great job. Justin Herbert, didn't even have to debate you. Still doing it. Drake May and Matthew Stafford, two men who we'll discuss on many future NFL dailies, I'm sure, in terms of the MVP conversation. And then voted on to the island today. Congratulations to Brock Purdy, back on the island. Oh, yeah. Started the year there. Yeah. We might have forgotten, but started the year there. Trevor Lawrence, first time on quarterback island.

1:03:05Colleen Wolfe:He's going to love the island.

1:03:07Steve Wyche:Liam Cohen is kind of a QB island kingmaker right now. He did it for Baker. Oh, yeah. He did it for Trevor. Whoa. And then another one is Ben Johnson, who helped Jared Goff out, certainly. And now him and Caleb Williams. Wow. Beautiful. Bears fans, you can't say we're haters anymore. Small market island for Trevor. That is it for today's quarterback island. Thank you to Colleen Wolfe, Steve Weiss, and Jordan Rodrigue. We will be back on Wednesday with our big preview show. We can't top this, though. We should just quit. We should just quit. Happy New Year, by the way.

1:03:45Colleen Wolfe:Happy New Year! Happy New Year. Let it be known. Let it be known.

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