Super Bowl Picks with Cynthia Frelund + Hall of Fame Snubs

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2:17Gregg Rosenthal:it welcome to nfl daily where we're picking games for the very last time in the 2026 25 season whatever you want to call it i'm greg rosenthal i'm with cynthia freeland i'm on stage five we just taped what could be our last game debut ever who knows the this company there's a lot going on right now but we've been doing that show picking games together for seven years we've been doing doing a podcast picking games against the spread for two. And it really bothered me, Cynthia. I don't know if you remember this. We never actually picked the Super Bowl last year.

2:54Cynthia Frelund:I do remember that. People complained. I'm glad they complained. I was one of those people, actually. I used a burner. Just kidding. I don't know how to burn it out. But if I did, I would have done the same thing. But we needed to pick the Super Bowl. So I'm glad we're fixing it this year, even if it may be our last one.

3:09Gregg Rosenthal:I think we thought, oh, well, we don't want to spoil the pick early in the week. And we'll find you at Radio Row. and it's like it gets complicated once you get down there. So who really cares? Let's not be precious about our picks. First of all, if you've been paying attention to this show, you've been doing well, and you saw that Cynthia and I both got our picks right last week, 2-0 each. I'm up to 38-24 on the season. I struggled in the playoffs, but at least the 2-0 championship round where we had the Broncos covering, and I threaded that needle. I said Patriots win, Broncos cover. You nailed it.

3:43Gregg Rosenthal:Got that one. You nailed it. You both had the Seahawks. You had the Broncos covering as well. So you're finishing strong. You've been doing very well in the playoffs.

3:51Cynthia Frelund:I mean, I'm just looking at your overall season numbers.

3:54Gregg Rosenthal:Now, you won the picks on game debut. You tied for the overall in the playoffs. And so now you have to let the people know, what does the model say for Super Bowl 60?

4:06Cynthia Frelund:Avert your ears, my patriot friend. I have the Seahawks winning by more than four and a half points. The thing I feel best about is a high scoring game. more than 46 and a half points. So I feel strongest about that. But I do feel, well, the model, at least, model's feelings, you know, it's almost sentient now. The model feels that the Seattle Seahawks will win.

4:25Gregg Rosenthal:Are you worried that the model might join that social media where it's AI only bots, you know, just talking to each other, getting ready to take over?

4:36Cynthia Frelund:Did you look at any of that stuff? Because that's terrifying. So, and a human program. There's one that's actually called The Humans Are Screenshotting Us, which is very interesting because a human wrote that. Obviously, I don't know. I'm afraid my model will kill me in my sleep, but I'm not afraid it's going to join us. It doesn't like such a media.

4:52Gregg Rosenthal:It spit out a seven-point win for the Seahawks. Six-point win. Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah, six-point win. That's right. Patrick had seven. Seven for Patrick.

4:59Cynthia Frelund:I'm six, yep.

4:59Gregg Rosenthal:So still, that's significant. That's a point and a half over, and that's a big number. So where does the model kind of show the biggest mismatches? because I, as a Patriots fan, and we'll get to me picking them because it's obvious I'm going to in a second, I've started to convince myself they shouldn't really be that big of an underdog. They're 17-3. They have a lot of really high highs. But a six-point margin for a conservative modeler like yourself is a pretty big difference. So where is the biggest difference where it sees a problem for the Patriots?

5:28Cynthia Frelund:The Patriots' O-line is the problem. And not just, and again, I don't care about Will Campbell's short arms. It is not that. That is actually not the issue. the analytics people here that do our next gen stats they did a fun thing on arm length but for me it's more that since he returned from injury he probably hasn't been healthy and he surrendered like almost double the pressure rate a lot more sacks like more than all the sacks before he left like so I just don't think he's right and that's a huge deal at left tackle and being a rookie and being a rookie against the Seattle defense who they don't even need to blitz to get pressure so now you're devoting resources to help him you're bringing a tight end to chip like all of these different things so now you're conceding numbers to the Seattle Seahawks defense it's just going to make it more difficult and it's not like the right side has been a shining example of right tackle play as well I'm not being mean I'm just saying that it's not the tackles are an area

6:22Gregg Rosenthal:of concern Morgan Moses is the more solid tackle of the two but there's a reason why he's been on one-year contracts and then you're thinking about like interior jared wilson is a is a rookie and has had his struggles like garrett bradbury there's a reason why he didn't cost much in free agency and i think what you've seen in the playoffs is they've gone against elite pass rushing groups right the craziest thing is they could look at this group and say well actually compared to houston and denver and maybe even the chargers they don't send a lot of pressure maybe not as dynamic one-on-one, although they're obviously very good in terms of their defensive line.

7:01Gregg Rosenthal:So they've been put through the gauntlet of maybe, you know, four of the best five pass rushers in the NFL. And maybe they'll be a little more ready because to be honest, Benito's speed and the depth that the Texans have, especially on the edge, like I was even more afraid of that. So they survived that somehow.

7:19Cynthia Frelund:Okay. But so part of the difference is, so maybe, maybe Denver and Houston, whatever, I will give it to you. They're scarier pass rush. But now you have to put things into balance here. Is it how much different, right? Because it's not like the Patriots were just narrowly getting, they won the games, obviously, right?

7:40Gregg Rosenthal:But their offense stunk. Their defense really helped them. Right.

7:45Cynthia Frelund:So even if they settle down and they're a little bit better against the Seahawks defense, which they forecast to be, I think they can get a little bit more push in the run game. I will say that's where I think they'll get a little more push in the run game. But even so, is it enough is the question. Yeah, we're going to break down the game at a little more depth

8:05Gregg Rosenthal:in terms of our preview on the show that will go up Thursday night. And we're going to include some current NFL players in that mix, and they'll help us preview. Can you tell me who? I'm trying to think who's involved in the preview. Like Kendrick Bourne, some players that have gone against these teams. Nice. recently on both sides. I think we're going to get Isaiah Likely, who played against the Patriots initially. And so we thought we would get some players in the mix who have faced these teams to give us some insight. And Jordan Rodriguez and Nick Shook and I think are going to be talking about it as well.

8:36Gregg Rosenthal:So I don't want to go too deep into like why I think this can happen. But ultimately, like the Patriots defense has gone to a completely different level in these playoffs. They've performed like a top two or three type of defense. They've gotten a lot of pressure. I do think the Patriots have an advantage at quarterback ultimately. I do think there could be a lot of variance in this game. These are the two teams that have fumbled the most in the entire NFL this season. The Seahawks were second worst in the NFL in terms of turnovers in the regular season. They haven't turned the ball over once.

9:12Gregg Rosenthal:Now, when you start immediately going to like variance, turnovers, like that's not the best sign. if that's like my main argument.

9:20Cynthia Frelund:But the Patriots defense is kind of the same thing, right? In the regular season, they weren't turning the ball over. Fair. And then in the postseason, they've gone crazy with it. They've gone crazy with it. So who's truth and who's Fugazi? I don't know.

9:31Gregg Rosenthal:I think ultimately, like you need Drake May to move in the pocket and almost be unaware of his surroundings in a way that Sam Darnold would not be in this particular game. Like both of these quarterbacks seem like they have extremely high ceilings and pretty low floors. And so where is that going to come out? Ultimately, I think the biggest mismatch the Patriots can take advantage of is the interior offensive line for the Seahawks. We talked about it a little bit on Game Day View, but Milton Williams, Christian Barmore against Sundell and Anthony Bradford and even Graze Abel sometimes in pass protection.

10:09Gregg Rosenthal:that is something with a blitz plan that's going to I think target the weaknesses of Seattle I'm not going to say Sam Darnold is going to be seeing ghosts but I do think sometimes like you can tell what type of Sam Darnold game it's going to be pretty soon and if you get him not reacting as fast moving through his progressions not as fast like he did he was outstanding in the NFC championship getting him to think a little bit with some early pressure I could see him having maybe closer to that floor game.

10:40Cynthia Frelund:I'm curious, because there really isn't a lot of data to support this, but I'm curious what you think about facing two teams you faced before for your only two postseason games versus facing teams, novel teams. And we don't see a lot of that, right? Like, usually you don't play your division rivals for two games. Sometimes we see a three-peat, but I can't remember the last time we've seen it twice. So I'm curious to see if that game plan changes. Like, is it like I'm smarter because I've seen these people twice before and now my third time I'm going to have an even better plan and Sam Darnold's more confident?

11:16Cynthia Frelund:Or is it going to be like a mess? They've got to mix it up. I love this. This is a true question. I'm not, I don't have an answer.

11:26Gregg Rosenthal:This is one of my new pet theories now. I love this because I've kind of been toying with thinking about it and now hearing someone as smart as yourself throw it out. It's like Darnold did feel like he knew the answers to the test against the Rams in a way that maybe he wouldn't. He certainly didn't the first two times that they played in a way that he was comfortable with what he was seeing. And to me, that's the story of Sam Darnold's career. He has it all, but mentally he's not always totally confident in what he's seen and reacting as quickly. Drake May, good or bad, he's out there playing and he's almost a little too comfortable.

11:57Gregg Rosenthal:And I don't think he's going to hold the ball. There was one throw like ball where he he didn't throw the ball in the red zone against the Broncos. It was the third down play before they kicked the go ahead field goal in the snow that I was like, ooh, he never turns that down. That was rare out of him. Ultimately, I think he's going to like go down swinging if he goes. Sam Darnold, on the other hand, I think a brand new defensive game plan to have to go against new players. Will they mix it up? Could that be the difference?

12:24Cynthia Frelund:I also need you to come up with a funny, witty banter about... There is something here about Josh McDaniels, former coach of the Raiders, got fired, went back to the thing, and then Clint Kubiak about...

12:38Gregg Rosenthal:It's a revenge game on the Raiders and against Tom Brady for not rooting for the Patriots in this game. Exactly.

12:46Cynthia Frelund:See, there's so many levels of inside baseball here. We're taking you through all of them.

12:52Gregg Rosenthal:It is really funny that Josh McDaniels probably is still getting paid by Mark Davis, so it shouldn't be a revenge game like he got him.

13:00Cynthia Frelund:Listen, as a Northwestern grad, thank you, Mark Davis, because Chip Kelly is getting paid by.

13:05Gregg Rosenthal:And as a Patriots fan, thank you, Mark Davis, because Josh McDaniels.