Week 1 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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2:11Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're running it back. I'm Greg Rosenthal here with my friend and defending champion of all pickers, Cynthia Freeland. We're in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio for the first time this season picking game. And the first time I can officially congratulate you on not just beating me in this picks competition that we're going to do throughout the course of the season where we're really teammates because we're going to help out our listeners. there's, but the woman who picked the Superbowl and the champion before last season started Eagles over chiefs. I mean, what other show has someone that has done that on it?

2:53The only the shows was Cynthia Freeland.

2:55Cynthia Frelund:Hey, even a blind squirrel finds a nut again, you know, you've got the, you've got the computer model. You've got it all. That's pretty amazing. This year. I also made the dogs pick cause I was curious. I picked the top, my top eight from my model and then I put a snack for each one and I'll tell you who each dog picked too. Okay. Tell you right now what it is. I'm going to tease that. That's good to know. And yes, you can check out like all of Cynthia's pick on her show Numbers Game, which is on her YouTube channel. She has a new podcast too with Logan Ryan, which is very cool. And you can watch us on NFL Network Game Day View every Friday.

3:28We got like new multiple airings. There's like one in the morning on Fridays too. I love it. So you get all our picks here. Here we pick our three favorite selections against the spread of the week, and we will keep track of our records and hopefully help you out. And I will give you the first pick of the year.

3:46Cynthia Frelund:Well, the first pick of the year will go to the game that is played the last on the first weekend of the year. Okay. Okay. So it is played at Soldier Field, and Minnesota comes to town. And you know Brian Flores, my friend from college, he's got this really good defense, real sneaky. They do a lot of weird stuff with like, are you going to blitz? Are you going to lose a dissimulator pressure? What are we going to do? But you know who's not going to be tricked? Ben Johnson? That's right. Caleb Williams? That's right. I think we're getting upset. Wow. Starting strong here. Vikings are favored by one and a half.

4:18And I have the Bears winning. On the road. And you have the Bears not only covering, but winning. Outright winner. Straight up. Not going to be one of my three picks, but long-time listeners of the show. And by that, I mean last season, which was a first. Well, remember, I write down a lot of picks. Yeah. I have some scribbles at the bottom of one that didn't quite make the cut.

4:39Cynthia Frelund:I remember the beginning of the season, the scribbles were actually beating. They were on fire and we're going to keep track of them this year. Once again, but my Vikings pick was one that, you know, didn't make the cut. Cause I personally like the Vikings overall as a team. And this is one thing I think players that in people are picking games this week and have to be wary of just cause I think the Vikings are a better team overall over the course of the season than the bears don't necessarily, that doesn't mean that they should weaken week one. And plus I could be basing it on false assumptions.

5:09They might not be better than the bears over the course of the season. Actually, who, who does your overall wind totals have been better? Oh,

5:15Cynthia Frelund:it has the Vikings. Now this is a one time beginning of the season trick play situation because in any game, you know, you could like in division, these division rivals, here's, here are my two problems with the Vikings that drive the bears win. Number one, we've been talking about how the bears have remade their own line. We're still questioning who the tackles, blah, blah, blah. But you know what? We don't really talk about the fact that JJ McCarthy, who's coming back from injury, played like a hot second in a pregame. He's a rookie without being a rookie, right? And he gets a new O-line too.

5:46Cynthia Frelund:And they're remade. And we don't know if they're great. They could be, but we don't know. We haven't seen it either. So I'm not sold on what that O-line... And no, Jordan Addison. Yeah, we have Adam Thielen that came back to town, but he came back to town last week. You're telling me that that chemistry is going to be fully formed already? Your girl says Ben Johnson has enough tricks in his bag to make this one better for Caleb Boyd. You're making me worried. You've got some numbers that are probably, you know, put into the big model that support that Ben Johnson had Brian Flores' number. Like you can look at all the great stats of the Vikings over the last few years.

6:23Imagine how great they'd be if you took out those Lions game. Cause the Lions are averaging about 30, 35 points a game on. I looked hoping for, you know, back, back, and I picked the other way and it was the opposite. They cooked them game after.

6:35Cynthia Frelund:But over the course of the season, I have the Vikings finishing ahead of the barrel. Just think this is the week one. It's week one. Let's have overreactions. This is one with you. Okay. I'm starting out spicy. Ooh, I started spicy? I'm going with... An upset? Wasn't spicy enough for you? That was very spicy. Okay. I'm not saying... I wasn't making a judgment on your pick. I'm just saying... God, we're in mid-season form already, Greg. I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the road this week. I looked at this game and I was tempted to just pick an upset. It just, week one is a liar very often.

7:10It's crazy. And it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game. But getting six points, it just set off alarm bells. A division game, which is off, these two staffs, they got to know each other a little bit last year. And the only one that I think notably improved their defense, maybe overall team in my mind, is the Giants. And then I looked at last year and those were two of the games for what it's worth that Brian Dable and Daniel Jones had two of their best games of the season in terms of EPA per play. I think two of their three best games of the season were against Washington.

7:46I remember those games. Well, the Giants moved the ball well in neither of those games last year. Did the commanders cover six points? They were they were close games. And ultimately, I think the Giants improved more this offseason. I don't think the gap between them over the course of the season is as big as all the statistical models have. So I could be very wrong. Maybe yours disagrees with me, but they have Washington backing up their season from a year ago. I think the Giants are going to be much better. I think the commanders are going to be worse. And so I'm going Giants.

8:16Cynthia Frelund:I think the Giants are going to be a team that ends up last in their division that we're like, this team is so much better than because their schedule is a frickin' nightmare. It is. We've talked about that since May when the schedule released. when we had this giant schedule release show. Woo, the schedule's out. Anyways, but we've been talking about it since then. And I agree with you that they've gotten considerably better. My problem right now is I'm looking at the injury report and I'm seeing Andrew Thomas. He is there, yes. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Again, it starts. What's going on with this O-line?

8:49Cynthia Frelund:That is just where I have some fear there. And that's what keeps you from. I actually, I'm with you at like six fields. Like that's just a, that's an annoying number. like if it were a different number I'd feel differently about it but I I feel like it could they could keep it closer I just feel like I've seen this this playbook before where the Jens have a really good defensive front but then the O-line is like a big question mark and I run is Malik neighbors injury real like is it going to actually ham is it going to ham freak me out here I'm not freaking out I'm just I just don't like when I see an old when when I've had O-line questions and I see an O-line questionable to play, that's a big deal.

9:25Cynthia Frelund:It just makes me like... He is maybe the most important player on the entire team, Andrew Thomas. I totally agree with that. And he's coming back from a really serious injury. And we don't know for sure that he's playing this week. It sounded like it was trendy in the right direction. I'm not totally afraid of the commander's pass rush. Dicey. But it's definitely a little dicey. What I'm counting on is Abdul Carter and Brian Burns in that pass rush getting after the commanders. But they've added Laramie Tunsil to the mix and they've added a first round pick in Josh Connerly. So that'll be an interesting matchup.

10:00Let's go to your second pick.

10:02Cynthia Frelund:I think you and I are on the opposite sides of this game. The Sunday nighter. I think Buffalo wins. Wow, that's one of your three. How did you choose which of these three to pick? I asked someone with really good hair. The guy with the good hair. The guy with the good hair. I'm like, Like, let's just, I don't, week one, I don't have any, you know what's weird is like I try to, every year, got to clean the slate. I don't have any preconceived notions about any teams this year. Try to go in with like, what do the facts say? Who are they objectively? Because obviously we all have things that we like and we don't like.

10:33Cynthia Frelund:We have people we like and we don't like. So I try to like really just wash that all away. I do like the Bills. I like the Ravens too though. So I'm here. I'm here. But a home underdog that the Bills are. Right now, the line has flipped. A home underdog? Yes. Yeah. It's one and a half for the Ravens right now. It started out as the Bills. That's right. And now, why do I think the Bills? Well, one, I really think that the ability to control the ball. Usually we talk about balls when we're talking about ball control offense. Well, I'm actually thinking the Bills might take that tact this time. And Josh Allen himself, 27 rushing touchdowns in the past two seasons.

11:08Cynthia Frelund:That's a lot. That's a lot of them. And I was watching the O-line play. That's one of the only things from preseason that you can sort of see. I think Osiris Torrance might be even better than he was. I think this O-line is, I don't know who the offensive pass catchers that they're really going to have to, you know, this Ravens defense is going to have to account for what, who are they scared of? Coming off an injury. Sounds like he'll play, but sounds like he'll play, but are you? Yeah. I'm Coleman has had a good camp, but I saw him pop up on the injury report too. So, but maybe some of that we've seen this before where Josh Allen, you're like, I don't know who he's going to throw to.

11:44Cynthia Frelund:And then suddenly it's like Josh Allen in a cloud of dust, but seven points or six points. We'll see how this goes. All I'm saying, Cynthia is you pick the freaking super bowl with, and not only that, the champion with an Eagles team last year, that if people remember going into the year was not a popular pick whatsoever, not just to represent the NFC, but to make it far in the playoffs. So you've done that. You, you did great with your picks a year ago and you're, you're in, you're giving our producer, you're mentioning Chris with the great hair in the back. Chris has great hair. 22 years old.

12:17He's rocking the,

12:18Cynthia Frelund:I don't know if Chris has a girlfriend, but if you were going to get a girlfriend based on lettuce, Chris would be like top of the heap. Okay. He's got the floppy. I appreciate that. Yeah. Yeah. he, but he's not like a football expert at this point. You are Cynthia. And you've got all your picks, but you, and you hand it over to him and ask him what's the, what he likes. I gave him all the numbers. I gave him all the numbers. All the, I stand by all, I love all of my. Okay. In week one, I'll buy that. I want Cynthia picking out her favorites. We've been thinking about this for so freaking long.

12:49Cynthia Frelund:We've had this week one slate. And then, oh, Micah Parsons. And then everyone loses their mind and picks Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. And I was like, oh, blah, blah, blah. Like, all right, let's just, let's actually do the math and relax here. And then everybody, hey, did you pick the Packers? No. God, I hope so. I did not pick the Packers. God, I hope you did. For the season or for this week. Let's just go there now. Okay. One of my three favorite picks. Oh, dear God. I stayed away from trying to get too into these week one Lions. I pretty much looked at them fresh for the first time recently.

13:19I think I had a vague idea who's playing, but I didn't know the Lions. When I saw that the Lions, your Lions, are two and a half point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers. And then I thought about the last four years. Hey, who said your whole era of Favre to Rodgers is over? You think you're going to go win another Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers? No. How about we beat you in week 18 in a game that supposedly didn't even matter to us to end that whole Aaron Rodgers era? How about that? We're the Detroit Lions. How about the one time you beat us? And I don't know if people remember this. The one time the Packers beat them recently.

14:00And the Lions have won six out of seven. The one time they beat them recently. Matt LaFleur in the postgame, I think it was on NBC or something. I think it was Thanksgiving. He got all. I'm sorry it was. He got all like chesty of like, hey, people saying we're not tough enough, you know, that we're not a tough team. Like, we're tough and we ran the ball. I felt in that moment, it always stuck with me, that he was sort of like his masculinity was threatened by Dan Campbell. And he didn't like that the Lions or maybe just he felt like his team's masculinity was threatened by the Lions getting pushed around.

14:32Hey, we're the tough guys. You know what's happened since then? They haven't won another game. You know, they got swept last year, too, while the Lions were all sorts of banged up. I love it. I just think the Lions are a better team and they have a real track record here against this Packers team.

14:46Cynthia Frelund:I think recency bias sometimes afflicts people. And because I do, I will say I'm going to put Jeff Halfley, the defensive coordinator, on the short list of guys who come the end of the season, we'll be like, who's getting a new head coaching job? 0-2 against the Lions, though, to be fair. I'm just saying in general, Jeff Halfley, I think he did a good job of reconfiguring the defense in a way that, I mean, they were second in simulated pressure. So they're doing some modern things to help out. They won't have to simulate some pressure this year. Once Micah's back or his back's okay. Like vertebrae, epidurals, these things sound very scary to me.

15:17Cynthia Frelund:But I'm just saying in general, we remember the Lions also got a lot of their pieces back as well. One named Aiden Hutchinson. Just a reminder. It's not like the Lions are going to be playing without... At the end of the season, they were playing with like 19 people on IR. Right. The Packers got Parsons, but the Lions got Hutchinson. And the Lions also got back people that know each other, have played together. Micah just came in the building, and he rotates in. He's not a down-to-down player. I think it takes a hot second for everything to come together. I understand defense easier. Go get ball.

15:50Cynthia Frelund:I understand the mission statement of Micah Parsons' position, but I think in general it is a bit more complicated than that for how the whole defense works together. And they still have corners that are – Jair Alexander ain't walking through that door. you know you and and I as good as we saw Xavier McKinney be last year with all of his turnovers turnovers aren't necessarily like there's some luck involved in there you know you don't you can't say year over year that just because they had a lot of a lot of interceptions last year they're going to get a lot of interceptions that's not how that works so you know I'm I'm I'm just saying to me it's you have to remember offense plays the defense offense plays the defense like you know that you don't it doesn't work like when they say quarterbacks play to like no they don't right well but then when you hear quarterbacks talk they always say like oh when when i'm playing that quarterback i i'm watching him and i know i gotta play better that day like joe burt like so they get it in their own head that they're going to get in their head but they're not like facing them right i think the lions defense is going to be significantly better than a year ago but i'm glad you brought up like the cornerback position for the packers so nate hobbs he's coming off of an injury he was their big free agent signing is he all right right he's i think going to play in this game, but he's barely practiced over last month.

17:04That's what I'm saying. Keyshawn Nixon, like he's OK. I think the other starting cornerback for this team, like the nickel is Javon Bullard. Carrington Valentine is still there. It's like it's not a great group, whereas I actually like the Lions on defense more. And that all gets me to the point that I really want to make about this game because I do feel strong. This is probably my number one pick. I just think it's the right time. Like they're getting them at the right time of the season. Yes. Think of all the injuries

17:30Cynthia Frelund:that 100 % like this is the week to play them. This is the week that you have all the injuries that they had. They had no receivers on the field like throughout training camp and they're all are coming back. I don't think Jaden Reed necessarily is what they didn't practice. And then you know who practices harder than any team and always comes out really strong early. It's the Detroit Lions. Like I heard this story from Colton Pouncey who covers the athletic about like Tim Patrick. He was in this first camp with the Lions and he was like, man, like, you know, they've like Brian Brant is coming out here, like hitting, like, I just think they run a tougher camp.

18:05I think they're often very ready for week one. We saw them. Did they beat the chiefs or they did? They beat the chiefs in week one. Like I just

18:12Cynthia Frelund:coming off a super bowl. Remember it was the, it was the opener when the last time anyways, whereas the Packers are not that team that, that, you know, practices tackling as much plays in the preseason. So I also think it's just a perfect time. And the lions overall are a little healthier. I think this game is a huge deal maker. Like everyone's like, the Packers are going to win the division. The Packers win the Super Bowl. Like the Packers win total went up one whole game to surpass the Lions. And on one person being traded. I'm like, wait, wait. If they play each other week one, that game matters a lot.

18:44Cynthia Frelund:It does. Is it really? Anyways, point being is I'm not, I'm, you know, as a Lions fan, I am beholden by, you know, everything that is Michigan in the world to say like, I have fear in my heart and I have fear, but I think that this is my model. My model says the Lions win. Okay. I love that too. So you agree with me. All right. Let's do one more pick. Yeah. Your last one. Okay. Where are you on Tampa Bay and Atlanta? Because I have Tampa Bay winning this one. I mean, that is one of many where I don't have a strong feeling, but I did take Tampa Bay. By more than two? Yeah. One and a half? I would have them covered.

19:18I'm with you on that. It wouldn't. That one just seems like such a crazy matchup that I'd be afraid, but you're going with a lot of the tough games.