Week 11 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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3:42Last week, she's gone to Berlin. She's come back, and she's probably on her fourth or fifth show this week already back here. So welcome back. Thanks. That was a quick trip. It was cool. Good game. It was finally. Yeah. I mean, over time, but the fans were amazing. All 70 ,000 of them stayed in their seats for 30 minutes after the game. So we're going to do three picks each against the spread. That's what we do every week. But tell me a little bit about Berlin. Any vibes, any thoughts on Berlin? um yeah great like i hadn't been there since i was eight okay a little kid right so it doesn't count but we like we chiseled away the berlin wall like with my family and it was a very impactful memory left on me and to see how like the people are so nice there and so but but i'm not i'm not gonna lie i'm exhausted yeah i gotta i gotta get there um you do you do on the show many times my brother spends a lot of time yeah over there he's actually a citizen got that through reparations let's make picks.

4:42So last week, thank you to Tyler Shuck. Yeah, Tyler Shuck, like really. Thank you to the Rams. And no thank you to myself for going against my Patriots. That was my one loss. I now, I believe, have a six-week winning streak here. I did two and one last week. You're five and stuff on me. You went one and two last week. So you're going to rebound this week. I can feel it. And should I go first? Yeah, you definitely need to go first. Okay. I only had one. Well, that's not true. I had two games I feel pretty strongly about. Number one, it is the international game. Okay. It is the Miami Dolphins. Wow.

5:17You feel anything about that? I do. Okay. Okay, good. I'm glad you're having feelings. Their defense is playing well. Yep. I actually made a list because I know it's early on the West Coast, for instance. It's Dolphins, Commanders, blah, blah, blah. Yep. I made a list of seven reasons to be excited about the Dolphins right now. Okay. But that was on my last podcast. So I don't want to just repeat all that. Just give me one of them. There's a lot that's good. I haven't listened yet. What's the best one? The last four weeks, they are eighth in success rate in terms of their defense, 12th in EPA per play.

5:51Really, if you go back since about week four or so, they are a better than average defense. So that thought that they're just a tire fire on defense, it's kind of over. And you compare that on the other side of the ball to the Washington Commanders who are either last or second to last in any defensive metric you can find over the last month. And I look at this matchup and I see it's two pretty mediocre offenses, even with Mariota. Like, they're not terrible, but they're both just mediocre. Dolphins are a little better than average if you just look at the last three weeks. But that's not why. It's one defense is one of the worst in the league.

6:27And the other defense is actually playing pretty well. Bradley Chubb, Anthony Weaver, the coordinator. I think it's actually kind of a little bit of a mismatch this week. I think the Dolphins win going away. The hard part about me with this game is like, now that I've like, okay, it's a grueling schedule to be over there. You've done it so many times. It's old hat for you. No, it's very challenging. This is how you know that they value him here at NFL Media because they don't make him do the 60-hour trip. They let him stay for like two weeks. Anyways, I digress, but it's grueling. And I know that the Dolphins are already over there and they're practicing.

7:03It's raining. It's kind of like the weather's supposed to be bad. The weather's like this. That worries me a little bit because the Dolphins have struggled in bad weather. That's why I'm just like fading this one in general. I get it. I do think the Dolphins win. I do agree with you that their defense is better. And I do. Dan Quinn now taking over defensive play calling duty. So maybe Washington will have like a little extra pep in their step because of that. But I just feel like this one's a whole stay away because just weird stuff happens when you're that far away from like your normal routine so i'm with you i was just pleasantly surprised i saw two and a half i thought they would be a bigger favorite with the way that they're playing they might get their right tackle austin jackson back for the first time that'd be good leave all season that'd be good their offensive line's playing pretty well it's not a good commander's front okay your first pick okay so i know that eight points is a lot but i don't care okay because I think Baltimore is playing that well.

7:56Okay. I think so it's Baltimore over Cleveland in Cleveland. Baltimore has been really doing a nice job of limiting what defense or what other offenses can do with their defense. Dylan Gabriel, poor kid. I just feel like it's not great. No, like a sub five yards per pass using play action. Like the tricks that usually work, just like the tricks aren't tricking, you know, like the things that get people in rhythm, aren't getting people in rhythm. I know we saw a new play caller last week. Okay. But I just think that the Ravens have so much to be playing for that even eight, which is like a hefty number, I think it's the second heftiest of the week.

8:36I don't care. I think the Ravens beat that number. Two items of good news for you. Yeah. Number one. Yep. I've been meaning for about four shows straight to just mention that Tommy Reese is the play caller for Cleveland. Yeah. I just forgot to mention it. and it's just been bothering me. Oh, yeah. You just did it. And it's no more Stefanski. So thank you for just providing that piece of information. I'm glad I could do something around here for one. No. Jeez Louise. You've been killing it, and you're killing me, by the way. Everyone should check out Game Day View every week on NFL Network. Cynthia's model is crushing me right now in that format.

9:14Number two, I got a half point to give you back. It's actually seven and a half, according to DraftKings, where I'm looking. Oh, even better. Get the half point back. Great. Love it. Oh, I love that pick for you. I think this Browns, it is. I know the defense is playing hard. I like their defense. I really like Miles Garrett. I really like a lot of pieces that Denzel Ward. There's a lot of nice pieces on their defense. The problem is none of them play offense. It's a top five defense. It is. The Ravens could score. You could tell me that the Ravens scored 19 points in this game because the Browns' defense plays so well, and I'd still take the eight points.

9:49I don't think Browns are going over 10. So I think that's a good one. And at some point, Kevin Stavansky will no longer be the Browns head coach is what I fear, whether that's fair or not. Do you think, I have a question about the Giants. Do you think that's going to be a coveted job? The Giants? Yeah. Yeah. Well, I always think coveted jobs or not is a little overrated. Yes, there's the occasional Ben Johnson who has his pick of the litter. But in general, all coaches want every job. And the fact that you have Jackson Dart, Andrew Thomas, Malik Neighbors, Dexter Lawrence. Yeah. Abdul Carter. Yeah.

10:24Ryan Burns. You need to mention him. That's a lot better than a lot of teams that are rebuilding. So, yeah. I'm just curious. I think it's a good situation. I don't know. I don't like the GM. But Browns? Browns less so. Yeah. I don't know. Anyways, they got Miles Garrett. Okay. My number two pick that I'm very excited about. Curious where the model lands on this one. Model's drunk this week, just so you know. Bucks plus six at Buffalo. I know the model's been big on Buffalo all year. Model's with you. Okay. Now, the model has Buffalo winning. Yeah. But only by four. I couldn't believe that both Patrick and I are taking the Bucs straight up.

10:57I don't feel amazing about them straight up. I just went with my gut before I even looked at the lines. Yeah. Six points is a lot. That is a lot. I've been wrong about the Bucs a lot. And a lot of these lines, whenever it almost seems too good to be true. It's too good to be true. It is. And I actually went on the other side of that last week. That was like Rams favored by four and a half. I don't care if that seems too good to be true. I liked the Rams a lot last week. But in this case, I think they have the recipe the Bucs do to either win this game or make it more of a defensive game and keep it close.

11:29I'm going to do the tiny asterisk there. If somehow, and he's been practicing all week, and so Bucky Irving looks to be returning, if somehow some weird thing happens, and we've seen weird things this year, and he doesn't come back, I would stay away from that. Interesting. If he's not there, I do think it does change things for me. My problem that I have for the Bucs to pick the outright win is that Buffalo has been so efficient and so good in the run game, and they've been just crushing time of possession with that run game. So that's why I have Buffalo winning, but I think Tampa Bay could easily keep it very close.

12:04Also, I think Baker Mayfield's a little banged up. He's going to play, but he is a little banged up. And not playing his best. But he's like, I mean, I don't even know exactly what's wrong, but like, you know, that stinks. Like you want, I want, I want to see best versus best every single freaking week. So that's why I have them winning, but I think it's close. I have a four point game and I'm, I'm pretty conservative. So yeah, I like, I really liked that. Now there is good injury news for the bills, which I think is informing it. They have Christian Benford, their great cornerback at practice.

12:32Same with Thron Johnson. So it looks like they're both back. They were not playing last week. Josh Palmer is fully practicing. So he's probably back to Epinesa is a defensive lineman. Let's talk about the defense though. He's bad. He's back. All that said, the Bucs are healthier up front. They've got their right tackle back last week. In overall efficiency, these two teams are 10th and 11th in DVO. To me, that sounds right. So it's just like it's two teams that are relatively close. And then my final point on this one is, look, the Bucs defense is a great run-stopping defense. And I know they gave up a couple big plays last week.

13:07But in terms of on a per play basis, the Patriots actually had the lowest success rate of any team in the NFL running the ball last week. But the Patriots aren't a good running team in general. I get it. But if a team is going to slow down the Bills the way that the Patriots defense did and the way that the Dolphins did last week, they're like loading the box and they're making the Bills win with these one on one matches. It hasn't been happening. And one thing I think that's sneaky about this Bucs team, it's actually probably the best Bucs defense, I think, of the last four years where they've been winning the divisions.

13:40Their defenses, I think it's a good secondary. I can trust them. I think they can win this game. Well, Jabel Dean is playing out of his dang mind. I think they can win this game. Did you see me not swear there? Yes. Dang. That's a good job. Okay. It's like sub-24 passer rating allowed in coverage, which is like some crazy numbers, like the best one in Next Gen Stats history. Like, Jabel Dean's just crushing it. I just had to pick up your card. I knocked over my note card. You were so excited about your card. If you're watching on YouTube and people do like the pick show on YouTube, right now, go ahead and like this video and subscribe to the channel.

14:12We appreciate you. Cynthia, give me your second pick. Okay. So my second pick. I kind of hate it, but I love it at the same time. I haven't been getting anywhere this season going with things that I'm like, all right, I don't really feel anything about. So I'm going with something that makes me a little more uncomfortable, but I like it. I think Chicago, they're underdogs in Minnesota. The number is three? Yeah, two and a half or three. It's about three. It doesn't matter. I'll give you three. I have them winning. The Greg book is giving me three. I don't care. I have them winning, right? So my point is, if you're saying that...

14:51I have it at three. Actually, you're right. Okay, so you're giving me a field goal? Yeah. And I have them winning? Yeah. It makes me a little uncomfortable because field goal, schmieled goal, we know. but I do think that this team, if you look just at how Caleb Williams has performed against the blitz, what's going on in the run game for the bears, those two things, just those two things alone. I think this could be a very good opportunity for the bears to get back that one game that they dropped to the Vikings. What was a week one way back in week one. So I think the bears win this one. I have the bears winning straight up to all three of us do me, you and Patrick.

15:27Oh, that's a recipe for disaster. A little surprised. Yeah. I don't feel super confident in it either. How could you with these two teams? They're in the middle of the NFL. But it makes me feel like, I feel like on Monday when I wake up, that's going to be like, duh. Like, obviously the Vikings defense could give this offense a lot of problems, but I think the Bears offense is just so much more trustworthy, which really says something good about Caleb Williams. Yeah. And where their running game has been out combined compared to this Minnesota offense, which J.J. McCarthy is like... He's so good in the first two drives.

16:01And then after that, it's like, do, do, do, do. He really gives me, I'm trying to think of a quarterback quite like him, where every time he drives. Call him by his name. JJ. Oh, nine. You just don't know what's coming from nine. Nope. Nine keeps you guessing. He's very unpredictable. Like some stuff is really good. He is right now a high variance quarterback. And that's kind of what Caleb Williams was early in his career. But he's starting to make those plays. Okay. I'm with you. Okay. Who's your second one? I gave you two. I gave you the bucks. Or third one, rather. Sorry. And I'll tell you, because Chicago was on my longer list of ones I kind of liked, so I agreed with you there.

16:39There's another one, which it's just the same reasoning. It's not going to be my third pick, but that I kind of liked, which is I have Seattle winning straight up. I think you do, too. I do. Is that your third pick? No. I don't feel good about it. So I kind of like that plus three. If you're going to give me three points. If you're going to give me three points, same argument. And that one is not much more complicated than I've thought they're the best team in the NFL for a month plus, like if I had to pick one. And so if you give me who I think is the best team in the NFL, three points, I'll just take it.

17:06But I don't feel great about it because that's how good the Rams are. Right. And it's a division game. Who knows? Third one. Like I said, didn't really have a third that I absolutely loved. And this is very similar to my Rams pick a week ago. I know that five and a half looks big for the Steelers, but a division matchup. I like that one. The rematch where the first time, this is my theory, The rematch where the first time around the inferior team wins, I think it just market corrects. If Mike Tomlin gets swept by Joe Flacco and this Bengals defense, I mean, we got to have some serious conversations about the Steelers.

17:39I don't think that's happening. And I actually think this time around, some of these crazy numbers of Flacco under pressure, which are horrible, will actually come back to haunt them. And I know he's been excellent overall, but it was kind of a miracle they got back in that Bears game and I think this Steelers pass rush will give him lots of problems and actually this could be a very one-sided game that they rebound from that performance against the Chargers and Jalen Warren runs the ball really well most important more than anything they're playing the Bengals defense the worst defense in the league they're not going to beat them twice I take them to win by more than five and a half the Pittsburgh Steelers.

18:18Mine's right around five and a half. I like it. My gut totally agrees with you. I kind of hate, like I told you, the model's a little drunk this week, so it's not one that I feel super strongly about, except that Pittsburgh will win this game. I feel good about that. The way that they can get heavy in terms of their offense and run the ball, and Mike Tomlin talked about it this week. He wants Jalen Warren to have even more of the workload. I love that, and I just think it's going to be effective. Coming out of a bye. Of course it is. Like good coaching staffs, you say coming out of a bye. Andy Reid.

18:52Like they're going to fix things. Andy Reid's 12-4 coming out of a bye. What are they going to do? Like McDermott, he made some adjustments a few weeks ago and it really worked out for a couple weeks. I actually feel the opposite about the Bengals. You give them a week to think about it and make some changes, it's actually going to get worse. And so that's another reason why the Steelers are going to win. All right, your final pick. Look, this is another one that I'm just going with being a little uncomfortable in this week. That's my new strategy. Seven points. Houston over Tennessee. Okay. And I think it's down to six.

19:24Great. So it's even better for you. Even better for me. Down a whole point. I've been monitoring that throughout the day. We taped this on Thursday. CJ Stroud effect. It was seven all week. Fell to six and a half. Now it's all the way to six. That's because CJ Stroud has been ruled out. Officially out. You know who doesn't care about that? Davis Mills. Oh, okay. Well, also Davis Mills. Yeah. In his neck. But part of what I like about this one has absolutely nothing to do with Houston's offense. It's really everything to do with the fact that Houston's defense is just so scary. I understand they gave up a lot of points to Jacksonville.

19:58I know division games. It was misleading. It was short fields and punt return. It was weird. And turnovers. Yeah, you have to actually watch that game. And if you watch what happens in the passing situations against the Texans, Like the Texas defense could do the scoring here. Maybe they could play offense. Like who knows? Like it doesn't even matter. But ultimately, I just feel pretty strongly that, you know, Houston is trying to make a case for the playoffs. They know they kind of started the season a little not so great. And they've really turned it up. You know, if you look over the past couple of weeks, where do they rank since they're by and passing yards per game?

20:33They're right up there amongst the league's best, which is very surprising to me because when I watch, I'm not thinking like, wow, they're dicing them up. But you got to look at the aggregate and what's happening and Nico Collins effect. He was so good last week. Exactly. So I don't think there's anyone on Tennessee's defense in the secondary that scares me against a guy like Nico Collins. Are you kidding me? Absolutely not. I totally agree. And I watched that game and I thought, you know, their running game is actually coming together. It was really important in that comeback. They actually stayed patient with the run.

21:07Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. And I'm not saying it's going to be great, but they're also getting two offensive linemen back last week, this week. They were short. Who's their best offensive lineman, Titus Howard, who I got to trust the local people. The local beat writers have been saying he might be their best offensive player. Like he has played like a pro bowler in a, on a team where the rest of the offensive line has really struggled. He's played well. I mean, I like, I like the writers too, but, and I'm happy he's back, but I don't know. I just like, it just makes me a little uncomfortable.

21:37because, you know, weird things happen in division management. Six is a lot. I saw that, and that one is sort of like too good to be true to take the Titans, but I get it, and here's why. I did a little math while you were talking. You're not the only mathematician around here. It's coming from my job, people. Modeler. So the over-under is 37 and a half, right? So if the spread is six, that would put the Titans team total around 15 and a half, 15 and a half or 16, depending on how they do it. Whatever the Titans team total is, I love that this week. Under. Oh, let's say, you're going to score 17 points?

22:20like, I could, kind of like I was talking about with the Steelers, you could tell me the Texans only scored 20 points. I'll take that, you know, that way. Like, I think this could very well be 17 to 6. Yep. Or 20 to 6. Yep. And the team... Six is actually like... that'd be moving it down the field a little bit. I think the team total could be outrageously low for the Titans. Is that a good job? Titans? No. I think as jobs go, I think Cam Ward's a plus. Love Cam Ward. Relatively, but also unproven. Very unproven, but what are you supposed to do? I mean, the poor kids been. You remember all those interesting core pieces I mentioned, the Giants?

23:03Yeah. Okay. Who are they on the, on the Titans? Cam Ward? Cam Ward. Oh, you got Jeffrey Simmons. I like Tajay Spears as like a backup. You didn't like Jeffrey Simmons? You didn't respond to that. He's like 31 or, yeah, he's good. Listen, sometimes we get better as we age in certain ways. Nope. No, we don't in football. No, Cynthia, you absolutely have. You've got so many jobs. Check her out on her YouTube channel. Numbers game. Also, you know, your guy, Logan Ryan, who you do a show with. Logan. is a star. Popping up in the Tony Romo booth last week. Of all of the surprise guests last week, no one was better than Logan.

23:43That is really well said. I was like, hey, that's Cynthia's co-host. If he can get in the booth with Jim Nance and Tony Romo, maybe I can too. Exactly. I mean, that was also his bowl game, right? Because he played for both teams. And he went and asked to shadow. What a good human. It's smart to do, and that's always a good recommendation before we say goodbye to younger listeners out there. Yeah. If you're in a place where someone's doing the job you want to do, just start following them around and then just start doing the job you want to do even if no one asks you. And eventually, they just kind of give it to you.

24:22Maybe. Why are you laughing? It's kind of true. It's kind of true. More or less is good advice. We will be back on Sunday night with the Week 11 Recap. We will see you then.