Week 12 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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2:22Welcome to NFL Daily, where we don't believe in jinxing a winning streak. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and I'm here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland, who has beaten me like a drum on our NFL Network show, Game Day View. But I mentioned that streak up top because I'm going to wear it. This is the week where I'm just going to say it. I'm on a seven-week winning streak here in this studio, picking against the spread. Look at us. It's a perfect calendrome. you're struggling right now on this show. You're crushing me on the others. But I went 3-0 last week. And that brings my seven-week streak.

3:02Seven-week streak. All winning up to 16-5 overall after the 13-0. So I'm feeling great. And you would think, usually when you get some picks right, you're feeling confident. It's like the basket looks bigger. You know what I mean? When you're shooting. Correct. Playing basketball. I hate the slate. And then I looked at the slate, and the games aren't speaking to me in the way that they normally did. In the end, I wrote down five that I like-ish, but they weren't speaking to me like they normally do. And because of that, I'm going to give you the first pick. Oh, perfect. Well, that's nice of you because, all right.

3:30So I kind of hate this one. Don't hate it if you're going first with it. No, I hate the whole week. So I hate it one of the least. How about that? It's the least hate of the hate. So there we go. I think that on Monday Night Football, the San Francisco 49ers win by a touchdown. That was one of the ones I liked. I think it's right at seven. Yeah. Yeah. I do like that one. I didn't write it down, but that actually was one of the few that was like, they're almost begging you to take the Panthers. They're, they're like pleading with you. Take the Panthers. But no, no, no. It's, it's a, I think that's what the only reason I feel good about number one, the Niners are at home.

4:07That always helps, you know, with some Carolina has baffling stats. Sometimes they're great. Sometimes they're not great. But the thing that I really was interested most in was how Bryce Young was so effective. Like, what were the conditions under which he operated? And can the Niners get rid of those conditions? Like, can they stop those conditions? And the thing that the Niners are very good at, even without Fred Warner, is stopping runs when opposing offenses use 11 personnel. So, Carolina, they've been really effective rushing out of 11 personnel. So, three wide receiver sets. That's where Rico Dowdle has like six yards per carry, like some crazy number.

4:47But the Niners, even without Fred Warner, they're still good at stopping that. So to me, I was like, all right, I feel namaste. I feel better about that. And it's been interesting. The last couple of weeks, Dowdle's yardage, at least on the ground, has gone way down. Yep. And if you make Bryce Young one-dimensional, he could light you up for 400 yards plus, like he did last week. But that's happened like once all year. I don't expect that to happen. I think there's some crazy stat out there that in games after it doesn't have, it's like too small to be a real like relevant one, but it's a fun one to tell your friends in games after he's thrown three touchdowns.

5:23He's not thrown more than one touchdown in the next game. It's a, it's a minuscule, but it's still fun. You know, Monday night football, if your family like mine is coming early, you need weird stats to talk about in case things get quiet. Thanksgiving. Monday. Yeah. Okay. Same. I will be picking my parents up at the airport right as the game starts. which is tricky because we go live on YouTube after the game. So I will have to have that game up, be listening on the radio. I have like a list of – there's like Uber and, you know, My parents are in their 80s. I just feel like at this point – I got a driver for you.

5:56I got a guy who – he's a good – he's very reliable. Okay, we'll talk off here. Mike the driver. He's great. Okay, I also think the 49ers have like a better than people think chance of having one of the best offenses in the league down the stretch. So that's my main reason is I trust their offense. I do not trust the Panthers' defense at all, which has actually been playing worse lately. So I like that pick by you. I was considering it. I appreciate that. Okay, so like I was saying, I don't have any model. Nope. No computer model. I just kind of wait until Thursday morning, and then I look at the lines, and I see like, oh, which ones just seem, which ones speak to me?

6:34Yeah. Which is like, ooh, okay. That's a team I'm higher on than Contentsis, that's a team I'm lower on. and almost nothing really spoke to me in a loud voice, but there was one chirping voice that was annoying to me because I don't want to do this. And that was from a game down in New Orleans. Oh, I like this one too. I don't know. Is it the same side? Because it's for the underdogs. I hate going against the Saints. Same. And this game is so irrelevant to everyone except for the employees of the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons and the fans because it's as good a rivalry as there is that I don't think there's going to be a lot of national betting on this game.

7:14And yet, I looked at this and I thought, in what world are the Falcons not a significantly better team than the Saints? And they're underdogs by two and a half. And I get Kirk Cousins is starting. I do think that's bad, but not as bad as it could be because Michael Penix is up and down. and then Drake London is out, which is quite bad. But ultimately, I just think they're a better overall unit and their defense is the best overall group in this game. Yeah, this is a team that blitzes a ton. Second highest blitz rate in the NFL. And you know what happens when you look at Tyler Shuck against the blitz?

7:52It doesn't go well. So I'm with you on that. I also think, you know, this is my only like, and I'm actually aligned with you on Atlanta winning straight up. So I'm looking at this one and I'm like, does this mean all the fantasy people that I work with? There it is. It's the Kyle Pitts game. Kyle Pitts, Kyle Pitts, Kyle Pitts. You're just going to keep. And it's all fantasy pundits will say it. And it might be. But good Lord, we've been really like, stop trying to make Kyle Pitts. It's not going to happen. At the beginning of the season, it felt like it was happening. I thought he is a better NFL player than he used to be.

8:28He is up to 47 receptions on the season, under 10 yards per catch. with one touchdown. So not a great fantasy season. Could be worse. Go with Darnell Mooney instead. Just do yourself a favor. Stop trying to play this game of, stop trying to make fetch happen, you know? Tulane grad returning to the Superdome. Not that they played in the Superdome by the time he was playing there. Doesn't matter. Back when I was a student, that's where we played. God, that's pretty cool for you. Yes and no. It was empty. You know, there were not many people showing up to those games in a huge stadium. The green wave, you know?

9:00but um didn't come didn't show you know he might be playing the college football playoffs but i feel great about that i really do i think shucks succeeded so far by being really great in improvising and like showing his athleticism a little surprising that that's how he's winning yeah and maybe he'll continue to do that but i just think the falcons defense jalen walker's playing better is the real deal and they will get it done on the road and sweep that series this season. Okay, your second pick.

9:33Okay, so I'm just going to go with this one. Why not? I don't think Seattle wins by more than 13 and a half. Whoa! Why? Slow it down. Slow down the dang game. I don't necessarily think I think that they win handily, but the center's on IR. Gray's able. Is he playing? Left guard? Don't know. Right. So he got injured as well. I just think that this is a team that has, there's a ton of deep balls. We know Sam Darnold, he's going to throw the deep ball. God, and they're good against it. But here's the thing. I just think they slow the pace down in this matchup just enough to not, just a little bit of pace, a little bit of tempering.

10:16See, I wish I led with my Seattle minus 13 and a half because now it feels like I'm going against me. You can go against me. That was kind of my top pick. and it wasn't much more complicated than this is the best defense in the league, I believe, by a decent amount. Efficiency-wise, DVOA would support that. It is the worst team in the league, I think, if I had to choose one. Maybe the worst offense in the league. And they've shown that they can win games going away. They've had some blowouts this year. I'm not saying that I like it. And they're a wagon. Can I talk you off of it or no? I mean, I really, that was the one that was actually my number one pick.

10:57I don't know why I started talking about the Falcon. I'd rather be more fun and cheer for fun. So let's go. I'll go with you on this side. Because, I mean, who cares what that's like? I don't know. I'd rather root for more than less in this situation. Wait, so you're getting off. I'll flip. You're flipping the whole pick. Now that's crazy. To more than. 13 and a half. Yeah. So now you're on the Seattle side. Right. Let's flip it. I just wanted you to get off it because I felt bad about it. But I want to give it. You know what? I'm going to get off it now. You stay with the air. All right. I'll stay with it.

11:31But no. It's crazy. You can be on it too. It's totally fine. Okay. I'm going to go. Man, these games this week are crazy. I'm going to go with Cleveland plus three and a half. That was another one that spoke to me. I know Shadur Sanders is starting. That adds an element of craziness to all the coverage. and it adds a little bit of uncertainty to what happens in the game. Is there a chance he's significantly worse than Dylan Gabriel? I guess so. But Dylan Gabriel was performing about at a 31st, 32nd quarterback in the league level. Shader Sanders is going to have an entire week to prepare. They're going to make the game plan around Quinshot Juggins and it's a favorable matchup overall against the Raiders.

12:18And I just don't. Are you going against your guy, Gino? I mean. You're abandoning Gino at the holidays? Yes. Oh, it's about to be Thanksgiving and you're like, Gino. He could still win the game. I'd be fine if he won. Yeah. And the Browns covered three and a half. But the hook got me here. I believe in this defense. I watch this defense every week and I'm so impressed how freaking hard they play. They're a good defense. They just gave Alex Wright a contract extension. it's a relatively unknown defensive end who got 33 million dollars on the other side of miles garrett it's not just miles garrett he's incredible schwestinger's incredible the secondary but it's good it is tough carson schwesinger it's by far that was good the best thing in this game is uh is the browns i in their defense i couldn't agree more but there's another side of me that's like okay everything is going just awry for the the your car breaks down it's geno smith's fault yes like like these are the types of moments where geno kind of gets his muster and here's the one stat i can point to for why i only think it's by two points so i'm on the same side as you okay good but but ultimately i do think the raiders can pull this one out because geno against man which the browns play the most man he's only had two of his 13 interceptions against man Not bad, right?

13:37Much better than the zone situation where there's been 11. Okay. It's just, I think this is where there maybe isn't a ton of an identity for this Raiders offense. When you think of Raiders offense other than the players' names, what do you think of them doing? It's hard to know, right? Failing. That's what I think of. Stuff to watch. That team was lifeless the other night. They made the Dallas Cowboys defense look like the old doomsday Doomsday Dallas defense of the Tom Landry era for our older listeners. Not that I was old enough to watch that defense either. I'm about to say, did you watch the black and white film there?

14:14I'm just saying I'm a student of history. They had color back in the 70s. They made them look incredible. They're totally lifeless. Both these teams are, frankly. But here's a stat that you won't find in your model. Kevin Stefanski is 1-0 in a, hmm, the loser of this game might get fired bowl games this year. beating Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins. Now McDaniel didn't get fired in the end, but the Browns came through with a 31 to six victory in that game where I kind of feel like maybe the loser of this game is, it is in trouble either way. I think they're both in trouble. I think they're both in deep trouble.

14:50It's just a matter of when. But yeah, man, three and a half points is a lot to give the Las Vegas Raiders in the year 2025. So I feel totally kosher with that as my second pick. I'm aligned with you on that. Okay. Your third pick. Okay. Woof. All right.

15:11Do I have to pick Green Bay? Sure. That's fine. Just feels like a better Green Bay against Minnesota. I don't love divisional matchups because weird things happen, blah, blah, blah. But it's a tasty little number. Six and a half. Yeah. Just means a touchdown. And I think I don't care who is the running back in this one. You can run on the Vikings. Big time. You can run big time. And Jordan Love, good against the Blitz. And I don't know what happens to J.J. McCarthy. I love splits that are like during the time that it's scripted, he's good. And then the rest of the game, he's not so good. So I think I'll go.

15:47But in two-minute situations when they need a touchdown at the end of the game, he's been pretty good. I know. That's how you bust the spread. But whatever. I just don't think in this match. I just think that talk about a unit that is severely, like very much better than the rest. It's, to me, the Packers defense. Big time is the best unit in this whole thing. I agree with you there. And I think they're coming on and I think the Packers look, these two opponents are somewhat familiar. I think that helps in these Brian Flores matchups for the most part. He, their defense hasn't been as good overall in these division games, certainly not against the lions, but you know, the Packers, like they've been up and down each.

16:30I know, but I'm just saying like over the course of the Brian, The B-Flow history and all. I love the way Jordan Love played last week. Ultimately, this Vikings season feels like, you know, you can't measure this in your model, but just the vibes are horrible. Vibes are way bad. It's a lot of pressure. Way bad. It is going down, and I'm with you. Nine needs to muster up the strength of the universe. I'm torn here because I really do like that Seattle minus 13. Get on it with me. Come on, let's go together. But you were on the other side. You can't just flip sides. I flipped sides. That's weird.

17:07Basically to be with you. That's weird. No, it's not. Because I'd rather root for fun. Okay. And fun being the two of us just looking for a big fat blowout on Sunday. Yeah, we want to win. Instead of just hoping that Cam Ward covers the spread. Covers the spread. That's not fun. Okay. We want to be fun. Okay. I choose fun every time. Officially, that will be my third pick. So my picks are Atlanta plus two and a half. Yep. Cleveland plus three and a half. And then the Seahawks minus 13. What a sexy slate we just picked there. I know. And you had the Packers as your pick. The Packers, the Niners.

17:44And you were starting out with the Niners covering the seven. And you're with me on the Seahawks. Yeah. Just one more thing on the Seahawks. And I'm going to throw out an extra pick for this one, too. I love it. Is there is something to me about not just the best team in the league, but the best team in the league coming off a loss. Ooh, I like it. I just think like this time of the year, every game is so important, but it really does feel like good teams respond to losses. I don't think this is a game that they are going to take lightly. And I just really like they are probably my I know they're behind in the division, but I don't care.

18:19I'm with you. I just think I think they might win the Super Bowl. I think they would be my pick right now. Can I tell you there's a team we missed then based on your theory? OK, a good team coming off a loss. I'm not going to pick them because I never pick my team ever. Yeah. I can't do it. But I think that those frisky little kitties. Okay. I think that's a, I understand that maybe Jackson Dart plays blah, blah, blah. You got the, looks like he will. Yeah. Okay. I don't care. I don't really either. I'm on that side too. Yes. I will always pick on the Giants defense in the run game until they stop it.

18:54I'm literally, they do my homework for me every week. Also prove they can do anything against run. Now you got to do it against Jameer Gibbs. And David Montgomery. Yes. And now Jameson Williams sometimes running the football. And they've been great coming off a loss in general this year. Roar! And it's Jared Goff coming back to... Do you want to make that your third pick instead of Seattle? I will never pick my team. Okay. I can't. I have too much. My heart is in. It's just too much in there. I'm on the same side of you on that one too. And I think just Jared Goff returning to the friendly confines of a dome and everyone chanting his name and loving him.

19:28It'll do great. but my extra pick here is actually Pittsburgh plus two and a half. I don't care about who plays quarterback. I think the bears are a little overpriced in the market. No, I just was this one. I was surprised. I was like, okay. I do think the, what are you saying? Phony? Fugazi. Fakes. Wow. I'm not saying they're phony or fakes. I'm saying that they're right now in Seoul. They're number one in the NFC North. Yes. They're 25th in efficiency, according to DVOA, largely because of a really poor defense. It's a bad defense. This is why we talk about DVOA. Anyways, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding.

20:09I like DVOA. Some of the other ones I don't, but I like that one. Ultimately, I'm looking at this and I'm saying, you've got six games coming up against last year's playoff teams. You get through some of those, then I'll have a little more belief because your quarterback right now, he has a sub 60 completion percentage. that is not easy to overcome I don't care who you are so that is where I'm like okay in terms of making the playoffs yes but hosting a home playoff game that feels like a bridge too far I don't have them making the playoffs to be fair but I have them on and as the eight seed just on the outside looking at I just think think about the Packers defense and then think about what you think about like think about what you think about the Packers and then what you think about the Bears even if you're not a Lions fan like me think about what you'll think about the Lions and then what you think yeah it's just not they're not there it's and by the way that's okay yes don't maybe it's better see dayball comma brian what happens when you make the playoffs a little too soon before your team has caught up to your wins based on that fourth place schedule getting you into a much like it's gonna be okay chill i think this is the swing game for their whole season because the schedule gets brutal after this brutal certainly a winnable game whether it's mason rudolph or more likely aaron rogers although i don't think rudolph is going to be a big negative but I see the Bears left tackle situation, which already wasn't great.

21:25And now that they have an injury there. And I, I do trust in some of the changes that the Steelers defense has made overall. I think their defense is the most trustworthy group in this game. And they can get heavy on the other side of the ball. And I think run it on the Bears, which I just do not trust that Bears defense at all. And I think the Bears often is going to have to be so clean to win week after week. So I like the Steelers in this game, but that's a, that's a bonus pick. my three will be the Falcons the Browns and the Seahawks alright we're going to nail this one we're going to nail it 6-0 that smells like 6-0 you know what else we nailed is the most recent addition to the NFL Daily Family I have not mentioned this on the show before is that our friend Ollie Connolly who I've worked with at TalkSport who has a sub stack the read optional is going to come on board and do a show with us weekly and we're going to start doing it on Saturdays.

22:21It says in the title, NFL Daily, I'm adding more shows to the mix, Cynthia. You can definitely afford to get your parents a driver from the airport with all these extra shows. Well, they don't pay me per show, unfortunately. I mean, I wish they did, but I'm doing fine. That I'm not complaining about. I love all of our partners. Are you ever going to not work? My goodness. I mention all that because that's the next show in the feed. I'm no longer throwing it to Sunday Night Football. you're going to hear Ollie and I overnight we will drop it East Coast time into the feed and we're going to be East Coast time so I can be ready it'll be up by the time you wake up oh okay so like really late got it got it and that'll be up on Saturdays moving forward so really looking forward to that until then we're both going 3-0 this week we're both going 3-0

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