Week 14 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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2:56Based on average annual single line payment of AT &T, Verizon, and T-Mobile customers compared to 12 months on the Boost Mobile unlimited wireless plan as of January 2026. For full offer details, visit BoostMobile.com. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're home to the greatest streak in sports right now. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesseling Podcast Studio with my friend, Cynthia Freeland, who's raising her eyebrows as if she isn't aware that the entire building is talking about my chance this week to make it 10 straight winning weeks on the man versus model segment. I love it. Let's go. I love it.

3:32That's great. Nobody's talking about this. Everyone's talking about it. Only I care. I actually heard about it on my way in. Yeah, I doubt it. I have been just texting our producer on Game Day View, you know, Hytham, who keeps track of the records for us, furiously every week. And, you know, I'm on the edge of my seat. And we got another 2-1 record last week. So, yes, that's nine straight weeks with the winning record. Cynthia, wasn't a perfect week for you. That overtime game with the Commanders was a little annoying when they came back. Whatever. She's going to rebound. You've got time. Should I go first?

4:0677 games left. You've got a lot of games. 78 before TNF, 77 after TNF. We go through the playoffs. We do. That's where I fell apart last year, so hopefully that does not happen right now. I'll go first. How about that? Let's do it. I'm going Houston plus 3.5 as my first pick. And I know you're on the other side of that, at least in terms of who wins. I don't know about what you think in terms of the spread. This isn't about the numbers. And I'm big game hunting. I'm going after some of the big teams in the league this week. I look at this Chiefs team and I look at the Texans and the Chiefs could win this game, but three and a half and a game that I think the Texans have a decent chance to win straight up.

4:47I'll take it. The obvious point here is the injured Chiefs offensive line, maybe down two to three starters against this pass rush is brutal. But what helps me put it over the top is CJ Stroud with a little bit of pass protection. If you look at the offensive line numbers over the last month, when it was Davis Mills, when it was C.J. Stratton. It's average. They look normal. They just look like a normal offense. They struggle a little bit in short yardage, but you look at this Chiefs defense, and they are struggling to get pressure. When they blitz, they are bottom of the league in creating pressure.

5:23And so, yes, Steve Spagnuolo could create some pressure, but I think where these two teams are right now, I like the Texans to win this game and at the very least cover that spread. And yeah, that extra half point, it hooked me. Okay. That's what happens. Yeah. It's not a personal shot at you. I don't feel affronted. Okay, good. It's hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes ever, but you know. This season it's worked out okay. And I know the numbers, and you can maybe explain that a little more to me. I feel like both in Vegas and maybe your numbers have been higher on the Chiefs this year than their win-loss record.

6:01Is there any big reason for that? Two reasons. Number one, the number of penalties that they're having every single week, especially the holding calls on offense. When you have a lot of different O-line combinations, that stuff can happen. However, it historically has not been a hallmark of what Andy Reid coaches. So you're seeing a lot of penalties. So in order for the Chiefs to win this game, you're going to have fewer penalties, not double digits, let's just go with that, and fewer offensive holding penalties, and then also Patrick Mahomes' ability to scramble just narrowly puts them over the top because you can get this amazing number one scoring, number one total defense on the ground a little bit more, which is why I don't know why Jonathan Taylor wasn't used more.

6:45Last week. That was weird. Might have been an injury now because we see Jonathan Taylor on the injury report this week. I was not expected to see that. And look, this was a matchup. If you remember last year, late in the season, there was a pre-Christmas game. Texans gave them a pretty good game at that point. playoff game, not quite as competitive. It reminds me, and I don't want to bring up any bad memories, just a little bit of the Green Bay-Detroit dynamic where the second time around on Thanksgiving when Green Bay won that game, you're like, okay, this year really feels different, and maybe I'm just wish casting here.

7:17But how about this defense, which has been excellent all year and I think is the special unit that's in this game. Go out there and be special. Do something special, and that's end the dynasty. Or at least end this year's Chiefs. Because if they lose this game. I don't know if you're going to end the dynasty. You're not going to end the dynasty. But you can end this year's Chiefs season. Right. By going out, kill them off. And the rest of the AFC will thank you. All right. What's your first time? Everyone will thank them. They'll be like, thank you notes galore to Houston. You know, this is an interesting one.

7:52All right. Because I like it. But, I mean, whatever. Who cares? I'm going for broke here. I see the number is five and a half for Buffalo at home against the Bengals. I know that Joe Burrow is 2-0. Huge sample size there. That's just massive sample size against the Bills. Playoff implications in that one. They went to the Super Bowl after beating the Bills. Five and a half. That's a tasty little snack right there. In large part, I just think I don't actually care if we see, like the things that Joe Burrow does well, which is Jamar Chase. And I do think he'll still have a big game. I just don't think that because you have Christian Benford, you have the defense for the Bills.

8:37They're much more generous to the run than they are to the pass. I think we'll see some success with the passing situation for Joe Burrow, but Josh Allen, the control from that run game, James Cook, the Bengals defense doesn't put up much of a fight against strong run games. Khalil Shakir being that little bounce off the top. I think that this is where the Bills at home, they play better at home. I hate home away splits. We can talk about that another time. But they do have a nice at-home situation here. I think the Bills need to keep it together. Okay. I did not have a hot take either way on this game.

9:13I don't know what to think because you could convince me that way, that you just did. I know the Bengals' defense, their numbers have been better since the bye, but this is the Bills running a rushing attack. Who's going to – they have 18 sacks. Yeah. Who's going to sack? Nobody. Nobody on that team without Trey Hendrickson, and he's not playing, will be sacking them. So you think Josh Allen with some time? Yeah, Josh Allen with time and the running game. Yeah. You think that they're going to put up plenty of points. On the flip side, no Joey Bosa this week, and you said you've got to attack him on the ground.

9:49You know Chase Brown? He's been playing well. Like they could do that. I could see a scenario where it's just back and forth. It's a great game. And so the five and a half scares me. But you know what is another point in your favor? What? It almost seems like they're asking people to take Cincinnati. I feel like the public is very much going to be on the Bengals. 100%. Okay. Because three feels like more like you'd think maybe the Bills win, but like a touchdown. Or a field goal, excuse me, not the full touchdown. And that the Bengals, they have Joe Burrow back. They're probably going to have T.

10:20Higgins back. We don't know that right now as we're taping, but he's practicing. He's probably going to be clear on Friday. I have him factored in. Okay. I like that one. Okay. You next. I'm going Chargers. Okay. I'm going Chargers to cover three points against the Eagles, and that's what I'm talking about, big game hunting. We keep going after the teams that were in the Super Bowl last year. We're not trying to go over a big number, although there are a couple of those I actually do like. I'm just trying to go for winners, and the Chargers are at home. They're underdogs. I think they're a better team than the Eagles.

10:54I just think it's close. And the Chargers are all over the place this year in general. But when you look at their EPA per play numbers on defense, it's close to the top of the league. They had that month where they really dipped down. But what do they do well? They prevent the deep ball. What does Jalen Hurts really major in? It's like the only thing he does is throw that deep ball. They are healthier. The Chargers are on defense right now than any other time of the season. They're healthy in the back end. They're healthier up front. They came out of the by being a little more aggressive. And then when you look at the other side of the ball, since we lasted in NFL Daily, we've got the breaking news that Jalen Carter's out for this game.

11:39He had surgeries on his shoulders. That doesn't sound good. They're hoping he's back at some point this season, but he's really important, and he could have taken advantage of what is obviously the weakness for the Chargers on the offensive line, especially the interior line. You can make the case for the Eagles. I get it, but here's what they've overcome all year, a bad offensive line, and they do it by staying on the field. They are number two, Cynthia, in the league in plays per drive. So I think they can go on long drives, and they can possess the ball a little bit like the Bears, although they'll do it, I think, by throwing the ball, whereas the Bears did it by running the ball.

12:11I like the Chargers to win. You know who's number one in place for drive? No. The Chiefs. Okay.

12:20I think a close game is what's going to happen in this one. I don't have a lean because as much as I, like the Justin Herbert hand surgery on the non-throwing hand, it doesn't, I'm no doctor, but it doesn't sound good to have like a metal plate in your hand. We saw him take zero snaps under center after that happened against the Raiders. I don't know what that means. I do know, I've seen all of the fun things they do on TV where they show the doctor and they're like, this is what happens when you put it on your set. And you're like, okay, but like, and I get that he's super tough. I have nothing but good things to say.

12:56Have you ever seen him in person, right? Of course. He's a striking guy. If anyone can play with a broken hand, it's Herbo. I feel like, I don't really know what it means. You don't think his height and his handsomeness is going to help him out overcoming the broken hand. But I don't know. I don't hear things that just baffle me. It's the next factor. Number one, Daniel Jones, his leg somehow healing while his fractured leg healing while still playing. Don't get that. Number two, I don't understand Justin Herbert's hand and surgeries and whatever. And number three, I don't know how to say the quarterback for Washington's last name because that's my next pick.

13:35Mariota. I don't know. Look, that probably came Mariota getting that extra hard T on the end of his name on the NBC broadcast last week. I'm sure he told them that or they asked. And so that's more the correct sort of pronunciation. I'm sure that it is. I've asked people who know him and they're like, I've never heard him say it like that before. And then I asked Logan Ryan. I'm like, you're friends with him. You played on Tennessee. And he was like, he's like, it's Mariota. It's not Mariota. It's Mariota. Well, it's also, you know, maybe it's Mike Tirico just adding a little bit of that. Oh, it wasn't Tirico.

14:11Italian flair. Is it like Barcelona where, like, the natives there say Barcelona? Yeah. Do you think it's that? It's like the correct way to say the number one tennis player's name in the world. Not going to try. Carlos Alcaraz. Yeah, I'm not saying that. Which, it's easier for me. I got a little bit of a lisp anyway, so I can just let it come out with the Alcaraz. I don't know. But I don't care who the quarterback is in that Washington game against Minnesota. What number are you seeing for that one? It's in. I have the Vikings favored by one and a half. OK, it's great. Either way, it's flip flopped around.

14:44I've seen one for Washington, one to Minnesota. That means to me that it would feel like markets are predicting that J.J. McCarthy is playing. That's what my guess would be why it flipped around. We don't yet know which quarterback. I don't care which which Washington quarterback is playing. Washington wins this one. There's two reasons. Yes. Number one, I think they win it. So whatever way it nets out being where Washington wins, and if Washington's favored by one, Washington wins by two, okay, we get it. Why? We're locking in today's prices in terms of this show. Well, it's like Cyber Monday extended.

15:20Honestly, though, how much even would it flip? I guess it could flip a lot. But Marcus Mariota has been playing great football. Yes. Anyways. So I think he's going to win that game, too. I am with you on this one. Okay. So what did I see last week? Washington held the Broncos, the number one pressure defense to their lowest pressure rate since 2023. It was sub 20%. That's number one. How did they do it with Zach? It's a compliment of committing to the run game, et cetera. What do both of these quarterbacks do? Jaden Daniels does it more often than Marcus Mariota, but they scramble and those scrambling situations have not been optimal for Brian Flores is blitz happy defense.

15:58They've given up a ton of yards through the air, a ton of scramble rushing yards. These are just, it's not a good fight for whoever the quarterback is. I do think, this is like a fun aside, that there are going to be points in the first quarter scored by both teams because both of them have defensive vulnerabilities. Fun. That's something you can get in on. Yeah, you can get in on that action. Just a little bit of first quarter over under. Whatever, man. I didn't come up with the market. We can just say it. We can just say it on this. We're not doing it. I know. We're not doing that. I didn't come up with the market.

16:29I just saw that it's there. I hope someone is out there listening. I hope someone is taking down all my picks for the last nine weeks and... 100%. Cashing it in. Yeah. I'm going to be there live, by the way, at SoFi, watching that Chargers-Eagles game. I thought you were going to be in Minnesota. No, I will not be in Minnesota for the 4-8 Vikings. It's supposed to be like an Arctic tundra all over the U.S. this next week, too. So stay out of Minnesota. It's also the perfect time to pick that game like you are because it's two teams that are out of it anyways, but this gives you a little more interest.

17:04And first quarter scoring makes it even super exciting. By the way, I think the commanders might be significantly better down the stretch than they've been in that their defense is showing signs since Dan Quinn took over play calling from going from close to league worst to just like okay. And if they're okay, the offense is going to carry them. And that Vikings team, the vibes are horrendous. Yeah, they don't seem good. And you're getting J.J. McCarthy back. Doesn't seem good. So I like that pick there. Okay. My final pick. Your final one. I thought about the Rams, but I'm not going to do it.

17:41It's similar. I think the Rams will cover, but they spook me just like a tiny bit. But if I was getting incredibly bold, I would think about the Browns' defense just putting a boa constrictor so much on the Titans that I have the Browns covering 4.5. Maybe you're even going there. I don't know. I was thinking about it. Okay, you can think about it. You can continue to think about it because in the end, I'm going to go Denver minus 7.5. I like that one too. I feel like at certain points of the season, you have certain teams that you just keep going against until they prove you wrong. The Las Vegas Raiders are that team for me.

18:22They have not been appropriately priced, I don't think, as one of the worst teams that we've seen in the last five years. Both them and the Titans are both like that right now. And I know that cover was up for grabs. It was actually a push until late in the game. That's what gave me a winning week. I went nuts in the newsroom, was Jim Harbaugh, because I think he doesn't like Pete Carroll, going for a touchdown late in that game and then winning by 17. You don't think? But Justin Herbert was playing with the broken hand, which is, by the way, why I'm not panicking too much about Justin Herbert.

18:54Because the way I figure it, Cynthia, I mean, I know a surgically repaired broken hand sounds bad, but that can't be worse than if I just broke my hand broken hand that he played with last week and played pretty well. You know what I mean? He's walking out there with the hand away from his body. It was really incredible. I mean, but like, maybe he's in shock then? I don't know. He was going like this, too. Like, he was throwing it and holding it up, and then he was running. Oh, I know. I saw it. It was crazy. Anyways. Looked really painful. This is a rare revenge game for the Broncos, where they're taking revenge on their poor performance from last time against the Raiders.

19:31It was on Thursday Night Football. They were held to about 218 yards, something like that, in that game. It was gross. And the weather, I thought, was an equalizer that night. It was windy. It was cold. it's going to be perfect inside of Allegiant. The Raiders have zero pass rush, and that's how you make Bo Nix make mistakes. And I think you put them inside the dome. I think they want to show after that game, which was a while ago, but also this Commanders game, hey, we want to have a dominant type of offensive performance. And more than anything, I just think, you could give me 10.5 points. I'd feel okay.

20:11The fact that it's 7.5, I love it. I love Denver winning this game by about 20 points. Up that line. I'm completely with you. The only thing I will also add to that is that I'm pretty sure, as in 100 % positive, that Chip Kelly did actually know the play calls and the protection. Just so we're clear. Yeah, 100%. Cynthia jumping into the back and forth between Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll. Breaking news here on NFL Daily's Pick Show. First of all, a guy who's called play for 30 years, he's not going to be like, are you suggesting he's incompetent or senile? Like, that's ridiculous, number one. Number two, a guy on the headset.

20:57I have confirmation that they know there's a sheet in front of someone that has it written out. Well, this Chip Kelly point you're making, too. I'm not like a stan for whatever. I just think it's a ridiculous... It was also unnecessary. So unnecessary. And it's made people have more attention on what's going on with Las Vegas. Barbara Streisand. So how about last... The Barbara Streisand effect. So what happened last week with the Raiders? They had almost 50 % of their yards in that game against the Chargers in one drive. Nothing was better. The offensive line was an absolute disaster. And you know who you're going to play against this week?

21:38the team that's going for the all-time sack record for a franchise, the Denver Broncos. So they're looking at the Raiders and they're saying, oh, we can get ahead. We can rack up some sacks and go after that record. I think they're going to win, and they're going to win big. Fine. You convinced me with the racking up sacks thing. My last one's going to be the Browns. Okay. I just like Miles Garrett to break the record. This week? No. He needs what, three and a half? He needs, well, three and a half to tie it, four to actually break it. I think he could easily get three. Let's go. Tennessee, but, okay, the four and a half, so they need to win by five points or more.

22:13Got it. That's what I'm taking. Browns win by five or more. There's a couple of things going on with Tennessee I don't understand. Number one, thorough line. Miles Garrett, anything the Browns could bring. A very angry, I loved that interview. I have no idea which one Jennings said, but I now want to know. because, like, hilarious, Shelby. Big week for Hose, just saying. You know, like. It really was. I was like, am I in, like, an alternate universe here? Hose are having a moment right now. You know, we could go to Lowe's and, you know, bring your Hose. I'm trying to get all our sponsors in, okay?

22:57Thank you. I'm sure they love being brought into this. But, yeah, that showed the team unity, by the way, on that Browns defensive line. They all are playing well next to Miles Garrett, too. I have to admit Mason Graham, who wasn't really high on that draft pick. He's been making some plays lately. And that Titans team, they give up a lot of sacks. I just think this is where you see. This is where. So last week, a lot of Browns fans were questioning some of the calls that Kevin Stefanski was making, like fourth down and going for punting. Whatever. I'm looking at this and I'm saying they're saying Shador is like an X factor.

23:27So they're going to try to use any of the interesting things, like the perception that he drifts in the pocket. it feels like they're trying to turn like the negative into a positive by being like, Oh yeah, well, he's going to look like he's going to drift, but really we're doing this like the element of surprise. And I just don't think that this Titans defense big plays or something. They give up. We've seen Shador Sanders complete some pretty big plays already. 30 plus yard receptions like that kind of, I don't know. It could be chaos and I like chaos, but I don't know. I just like, I like this like rookie, but I will say, I also think it's a big quench on Judkins week.

24:02Yes. I think Harold Fanny Jr. The rookies for the Browns. Big, big week for Browns rookies. So you mentioned Mariota. You mentioned Quid John Juggins. Those two guys might be mentioned in our next show that's going to be in the feed, which is our all underrated team. Oh. On offense. At least I think they. On offense? Does Brenton Strange get in there? I don't want to spoil the show with Ollie Connelly, but you might have just spoiled one of the tight end picks. Yes. Love. That is my pick for the year. I just did a whole win analysis of who's adding more. Watch him when he's not the subject of a path.