Week 15 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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1:41Cynthia Frelund:Zach, nice vacation spot, but without T-Mobile 5G home internet, it's scary here. Don't open it. Relax. I ordered T-Mobile 5G home internet with same-day delivery powered by DoorDash. Nothing to be afraid of. We're saved. Get T-Mobile 5G home internet delivered the same day. Powered by DoorDash. Just$35 a month with auto pay and a voice line. Plus taxes and fees. Same-day delivery for most internet-eligible customers. See if it's an option during checkout. Welcome to NFL Daily, where the greatest streak in sports remains alive. I'm here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio. My name is Greg Rosenthal.

2:20I'm with Cynthia Freeland, and she says that this is her favorite day of work, her favorite show. It's probably Game Day View, but right next to it is this show, our pick show.

2:31Cynthia Frelund:In my head, it's kind of an extension of the same thing because we do it on Game Day, so it feels like one. We are of one. We do all those weird little random shows. Who needs it? All of them together, though. In that show, we pick every game. We don't really worry about this. How many years have we done Game Day of You? Like seven, I believe. This show, though. Damn, okay. This is only two years old, but I'm on a hot streak. Yeah, you are. Ten straight winning weeks. Let's go. With no thanks to Pete Carroll and some of the most insane end-of-game circumstances I have ever seen. I finally watched that game Thursday morning, and the amount of things that had to happen for my Broncos not to cover were crazy.

3:09But I still went two and one last week, and it kept going. You sound frustrated.

3:13Cynthia Frelund:Well, I just thought that was crazy. It was crazy. You know what else happened in that game and no one really noticed? They had a play, a running play before the two-minute warning that ended at 2-0-1. It looked like it went to two. And then Pete got the timeout at 2-0-1. And that actually saved it so that they could get the ball back on the other side. Then there was a – it was – so many things happened. And you know what? It didn't matter because I went big game hunting last week. And my underdogs won straight up. Chargers beating the Eagles and the Texans beating the Chiefs. That was the weirdest game.

3:41Cynthia Frelund:Can we agree that that was one of the weirdest games you've ever watched? Absolutely. And I was there. I got to see it in person, and it was a delightful game to watch. How did you explain that to your kids? Oh, I mean, Walker just, he loved it. He went crazy. And I'm going to stay. I'm going to go first this year. Do it. Because it's a continuation. To punish the Raiders for what they did to me last week, I'm taking the Eagles minus 11.5. 100%. I've been, sorry, and you can jump on this if you want. There's no rule against what we're doing here. This Raiders team, I'm confident in fading them each and every week.

4:15I went back to watch this Raiders-Broncos game to see if there was anything different. And you know what? The Broncos did get a special teams touchdown. The Raiders did move the ball. On their first drive, they got a touchdown. And so it wasn't the most one-sided game. But then again, they doubled them up in total yardage. And this is Kenny Pickett returning to Philadelphia. So there's just not enough points I don't think that you could give me. and really imagine that Kenny Pickett, quarterbacking the Raiders, is going to score for them to cover 11.5 points here.

4:48Cynthia Frelund:No, I'm totally with you on that. I also, when you were talking about a special teams touchdown, I also thought it was really funny this week when Liam Cohn was like, they were like, what do you want to give credit to the Jets for? They're like, they can do some stuff on special teams. Why did they even ask him that question? I mean... That's so funny. That is really funny that they had to prompt him to say nice things. Unlike Mike Tomlin, who Bill Belichick would just start every press conference. They didn't say it like that. I mean, they were like, oh, so what are you game planning for? Like, they said it more respectfully than that.

5:19Cynthia Frelund:But it was just, he's like, they can score touchdowns on special teams. That's funny. That's an option for you to take as one of your picks. One thing I noticed, too, is that, like, look, this Eagles defense is awesome. I'm not worried about it. 68 % pressure rate. Jeffrey Lurie, their owner, said this is not like 2023 when we totally collapsed because our defense is Super Bowl caliber. Our special teams is Super Bowl caliber. I think he has a point, and that's why I don't think they're going to collapse in that way, and they're facing a Raiders offensive line. Just forget about it. This Raiders offense has topped 300 yards once since week four, and even in that game last week where they were kind of competitive-ish, they gave up 27 first downs.

6:00So they're one of the worst teams I've ever seen. I like the Eagles to bounce back. The positivity rabbit is back, although it's not back. It's gone.

6:10Cynthia Frelund:Someday, you're going to have to explain to me what that rabbit was even about. We need to have like a three-minute long documentary about that rabbit. It's an Easter Bunny blow-up. It's amazing. Give me your first pick, Cynthia. I don't understand. Okay, my first pick. Listen, I'm going to like, I want to just keep it simple because whatever. I'm just going to go with Houston to win by more than 10. Okay. I, I just, Arizona, um, here's my fun. My fun fact was talking to some of my friends and be like, well, what is Arizona's defense going to do against this offense? And they're like, well, Buddha Baker's wife had a baby this week.

6:52Cynthia Frelund:And I was like, I was like, great. A friend in the league. Not like, no, no, not like a, not like a, one of my personal friends. Like, not like a Kyle surfer bro buddy or whatever. Kyle would be like, what? Like, Kyle, your husband, who does not know much about football. Okay, that's also not true. He just doesn't say anything because of what my job is. So he doesn't want to act like he's like my – No, he just doesn't want to act like he's like my – You might have made my decision for me. I got to admit, I wrote down four games this week, and I couldn't decide between three and four. Okay. And one of my four – I'm not going to make it my pick now – was Arizona plus nine and a half.

7:29Ooh. So make the case just football-wise. My question was, you know, I do this reasoning a lot.

7:36Cynthia Frelund:I'll tell you exactly why. Have the Texans earned the right to be favored by 9.5? I'm giving you a half point back, by the way. You said 10. Well, they have to win by 10 for me to win. Have they earned the right to be favored by 9.5 against? And I'm not going to say anyone, but I don't consider the Cardinals anyone. I consider the Cardinals like the 25th best team in the league, not the 32nd. I don't think they're the Raiders. I don't think they're the Raiders. So that just seemed like a lot for me with a team that has a lot of defensive questions. Maybe offensive questions. Number one, the thing, first of all, this Houston defense is poetry.

8:12Cynthia Frelund:It's wonderful. And they're very, very especially good at stopping play action passes, which is what Jacoby Brissett has done at like a top 10 rate. So they're very good at like his trick play. They're good at stopping his trick play. Now on the other side, what we've seen from C.J. Stroud. Oh, by the way, Marvin Harrison, the Asterix Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr., probably not playing still hasn't practiced so just keep that in mind for fantasy purposes i know playoffs are starting whatever but um then on the other side when i'm looking at cj stride you talk about the o-line being average here's something interesting when you look at the number of plays that they've thrown quick passes so sub 2.5 seconds they're they're doing it at a 50 clip that's the second highest rate of throwing those quick passes in the league and dalton schultz has just like been there that's the level where like what part like i don't want to go anywhere near Buda Baker, although my player friends were like, they have nothing to play for.

9:03Cynthia Frelund:None of his incentives hit if he does anything. The dog is out of him in this fight. A baby makes you softer for the week, allegedly. I don't know. I think it's funny, but that's not part of my real analysis. The quick passes will combat any sort of problem the front's going to give them. But then also, I go back and watch some of the recent plays, and I love me some Will Johnson. I don't know if he quite gets it yet, and I think they can exploit that. Nico Collins quietly has the third most yards in the league on downfield passes. Will Johnson, part of a rough week for the University of Michigan.

9:44Cynthia Frelund:Next. Yeah, we'll just leave it there. You convinced me. Those are some very logical reasons, and I also think when I think about it more, Jacoby Brissett throwing to Michael Wilson and Trey McBride missing that extra weapon in Marvin Harrison Jr. is really big against maybe the best secondary in the league. All right, I'm crossing off my Arizona 9.5. To be honest, look, if you saw at the beginning, my record this season is up to 26-16. That's a 62 % clip. You're doing well there, and that's after losing for the first four weeks. But I think I've been wrong so many times thinking that the Cardinals were better than they were and that they would cover some big number against a good team because, to me, they look more like a 5 - or 6-win team, not a 3-win team.

10:32And you know what keeps happening lately? They keep getting their doors blown off by good teams, like the Rams last week. So I'm glad to cross that off. I feel better about what will be my third pick. But I'm going to give you my second pick. And I'm a little wary about this.

10:44Cynthia Frelund:Why are we doing it if we're wary about it? Because I do believe. I'm falling for the trap. Okay. Vegas is trying to make us take the Chargers plus 5. 100 % they are. Vegas is like, here you go. Little tiny carrot. I'm going to do it. Little carrot out in front of you. I'm going to do it. Maybe because the last few weeks, picking against the Chiefs on game debut straight up and here as well last week has been so satisfying to see them lose. But it's five and a half. And I know the numbers keep saying that the Chiefs are better than they are. And I believe that. But there's something heavy. Heavy, not my gut, in their gut.

11:25So there's something heavy about this team that the number, that at the end of games, there's the opposite of what they normally had. And all I need to happen here is the Chargers to keep this within five and a half. What are they in their last five games? One and four. And they've been playing teams I would describe as right around the Chargers level. Not the very best teams in the NFL, but playoff teams week after week. It's been a really hard schedule. And you know what's happened every time? they've either lost or they've won a game once in overtime. They won by three points. They've shown nothing to me that they're going to beat a good team.

12:01And I say a team with this Chargers defense, I think it's a real deal defense and a quarterback and a coach. I know they've got other problems, and that's why I'm not very confident.

12:12Cynthia Frelund:I love that Jim Harbaugh put last week's win up there with his wedding. I love him. It means more to him than maybe the other coaches. He's won a lot. You know, how could this game mean as much to Andy Reid as all of his children? And that's why I just need them to cover five and a half. And I'm taking it. I know Vegas thinks they're being tricky and asking us to take it. Tricky, tricky, tricky. I'm taking it. Okay. I mean, the Chiefs have screwed me the most this year. I went back and looked at, like, the reasons why. And part of the, like, okay, you can blame the O-line, sure. You can blame penalties, also sure.

12:48Cynthia Frelund:Usually with a very well-coached team, you don't get that many penalties from that many games. So, okay, all this stuff is true. Then I look at the defense. It is so wildly inconsistent. Usually with a Spags defense, it's like September has some weirdo things, and then it starts to go up and to the right. They get better. That hasn't happened. There was like maybe 12 minutes in the second half of last game where it was like, oh, shoot, they came to play. And then Trent McDuffie gets hurt. And C.J. Stroud also just made a couple really good plays. So you're saying C.J. Stroud can dice up Kansas City, but then you're worried about him against the Cardinals?

13:24That's a fair point. He made plays on his own where I thought, like, they even got pressure to him quickly. Yeah. And Herbert, I know he's playing with that injury. I know it's a short week. There are some concerning signs, but what ultimately did it for me is I think the offensive line on both sides of the ball are a problem. And I know the Chiefs actually played okay up front last week. Yep. But I think this Chargers front, and overall their defense is better than people think. I think in a lot of ways their team build has been about trying to beat the Chiefs. And I know it didn't happen last year for them.

13:56They were close, but especially in the division. It came through in week one, and they don't have to win for me to keep it going. They just got to keep it within five and a half, so I'm feeling good. I convinced myself into it now that I've said it.

14:07Cynthia Frelund:Okay. Your number two. My number two is a number two, as in the spread is two. That's Washington and the Giants. I can't believe you're taking this scheme. I have no clue who you're going to take here. I'm going to take the Giants. Okay, that's who I have too. Yeah. But I don't know. These two teams. To me, I look at these two teams in December of 2025, and I'm just like, yeah, have fun with that. Same. That's why I'm doing it. Okay. Because of the field goal. Okay. It's not like you're asking. It's like you put it at three and a half. I'm like, stay the heck away. Okay, but why the Giants? Okay, a couple reasons.

14:40Cynthia Frelund:Number one, well, one, Jackson Darts fun, so we like fun. I'm looking at all the things that happened. You saw a D-line coach get fired. You saw Abdul Carter get benched. You saw, like, there's just a lot of weird junk going on. And this is a team where, you know, they have cameras on them for, like, the in-season hard knock stuff. Like, there's some, I don't know. I'm looking at this and I'm saying that front is going to play with their hair on fire because they're already very good and they want to show who should stay, who should go. They're playing for their jobs now. Wandale Robinson has a really good matchup against a secondary in the commanders that has been...

15:19Poor.

15:20Cynthia Frelund:Non-existent. Well, they exist. They exist. And they're more injured now than they have been all season, and they weren't good to begin with. And I watched that game last week with Washington, who we thought was going to beat Minnesota, and they just looked rudderless. They just didn't care. And the best thing that you can target the Giants with is an outside run, because I've been harping on them all season long for how bad they are at allowing outside runs. And, like, who's going to do that? You think it's going to be Chris Rodriguez? You think it's going to be? I mean, I understand that... They don't even play Bill anymore in practice.

15:53Cynthia Frelund:They don't play him anymore, even though he was very good at such runs. He was very good on those runs, those outside runs, but they don't play him anymore. So the thing that you're the best at against this team, you aren't doing. You lose Zach Ertz, which is a massive, like, loss. I don't understand. Debo and Terry McLaurin feel like they're not. I don't know. I don't know the right word. Out of place. It just feels like a bunch of the pieces don't fit. I don't think Debo Samuel will be on that team next year. He is a free agent at the end of the year. I'm with you. I think the Giants. It's a field goal.

16:30Cynthia Frelund:Come on. Come to my side. No, no. I'm on that side. I'm on that side. I just didn't want to have that much faith in them. Just give me one thing about the Washington where you're like, Yep, that's an advantage. No, I agree. And Jaden Daniels is out this week. When we last taped NFL Daily, that wasn't 100 % clear yet, I don't believe. So he is out, and that hurts them as well. And rest is probably the reason I like it best. We saw what the Commanders did coming off their bye week. They look good for one week against Denver. They were rested. It's a late-season bye. And I know the Giants got dog-walked in Foxborough before the bye.

17:07But other than that, they've been competitive and they've mostly played hard. They're one of the, I mean, this is damning with faint praise, but one of the better two-win teams this late in the season I've ever seen. Because they've been in, like, so many of these games. Love it. Half of them, they've been up by 10 in the fourth quarter. All right. I like that. Okay, my third pick.

17:24Cynthia Frelund:I also just like the two. Yeah. Because you can kick a field goal and win. Two's nice. They kept Yangwe Koo. I was a little surprised about that after that stubbed toe thing. I'm glad his career did not end that day. I'm going to go 49ers minus 12 then. I'm not a take big favorites guy, but ultimately it hurts my soul too much to take the Bills in this exercise. I do think the Bills are going to win. So that was the other one. I think the Bills are going to win too. My math does not. I was considering the Bills, but there's no need for me to go against my Patriots in this format. I've been riding for the 49ers for much of this season.

17:59I think they have the extra rest here coming off a bye. They are healthier than they've been all year. Obviously, they're not getting Warner and Bosa back, but the rest of the team is healthier. I think it's an elite offense. They're eighth right now in overall offensive efficiency, despite all those injuries. I mean, that's pretty impressive. So to me, the rest of the way, they could...

18:22Cynthia Frelund:You know that they're going to get in as a wild card and face Green Bay in the first round, and you know what's going to happen, right? Because it's just like Kyle Shanahan, he stirs this mystery pot of lies, and he's like, I'm going to play the Packers. I'm going to beat the Packers. If I'm them, I don't want to play the Packers. Give me the Bucs or something. I'm telling you. But I just feel like he's like, whatever. Green Bay, fine by me. Look, if they were going to Green Bay, that's not a matchup yet that the Packers would enjoy. But man, if they were going to Philadelphia or Tampa, they can go win that game.

18:57Sure. I actually think they could even sneak a win on Green Bay. Love it. You're preaching to the choir. So Juwan Jennings, Kittle, I thought Purdy played a good game.

19:06Cynthia Frelund:What does Juwan Jennings say? I must find out. If you follow him, and I've started to a little bit on socials, and then you listen, like, he is just a trash talker. He's a S-word stirrer. Got it. I don't want to need, I don't want to call it any extra. You know, he's just. A pot stirrer. Yeah. He stirs the pot. He does stir the pot. I just want to know what he said to make some. Anyways, keep going. I don't even need to keep going. Although I will. Whatever the team total is in this game, I would love it for the 49ers. I guess that's just another way of saying you think they'll win. But worst case scenario, if they didn't cover this 12 points and I was wrong, I still think it'll be 35-25.