Week 16 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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3:29Welcome to NFL Daily, where Cynthia Freeland is getting tired of me talking about the greatest streak in sports. 11 weeks long. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm not tired of it. Keep going. I'm here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio with my great friend, Cynthia Freeland, the smartest person at NFL Network, and has to hear me talk about our little pick show where we pick three games every week. It's not little. It's our big pick show. It is. It is. And we appreciate everyone. I like this jacket, too. You're looking very stylish. Thank you. Is it like a holiday purchase? This is kind of like, yes, we celebrated Christmas last weekend, Rosenthal Christmas, and this was one of the gifts from my beautiful wife.

4:13Well, obviously, she's got great taste, though. She really does. She really does. Except for in husbands. But she actually told me to take off the ratty-looking Tulane sweatshirt that I was going to wear today to represent. You should wear Tulane. I was going to. It just didn't look quite right. So I decided to get fancy. And yes, 11 straight winning weeks on the picks. I went 3-0 last week, up to 29-16 on the season. I'm never going to top this season again. But I got to say, Cynthia, this week was tough. I only had like one game that I just loved. And after that, I was just like, okay. Like last week, I was feeling it.

4:53You helped contribute, by the way, to that 3-0 record because you talked me out of doing Cardinals plus nine and a half, and they got smoked by the Texans. And so that kept me undefeated. You want me to go first? You go first, yeah. Okay, the one I really like. There's only one? Or how many do you really like? That I love. Oh, the one you love, okay. They're really only one. And it's the Chargers plus two and a half, and I've been just going with my gut of picking winners in these games where it's plus three, minus three, not getting too cute. This feels like one where they're almost daring us.

5:27to take the Chargers. But you know what? I said that about last week, one of them too, and it worked out fine. The Chargers being five and a half point underdogs. Remember, we thought that was bait. I mean, they won that game straight up. They did. Sometimes. Yep. In football. Now, this is what I don't know if the analytical models can test. Okay. I think sometimes in football, there are certain teams that deep within their bones as a team, and it's crazy because it's like 45 players active on game days. they, at the end of games or in key spots, they're like, they almost want to lose. They will find ways to lose.

6:03They are, they have that in their bones. I felt that watching Chargers Chiefs last week, that the Chiefs, they were just going to find a way to lose that game, even if it didn't make sense. But on the flip side, I think the Chargers are one of those teams that there's just something greater than the sum of their parts right now where they believe that they are going to find a way to win one of these games. And I think they're mentally and maybe even physically tougher than their opposition, certainly this week. And all they got to do is win the game. They don't even need to. They could lose by one, and I would still cover this thing.

6:34They're plus two and a half. I feel great about this because I think the Cowboys will find a way to lose this game, and I think the Chargers will figure out a way to win it. I don't usually go much based on gut, but when I looked at the fact that the Cowboys were favored, I just thought, I'm like, am I reading this wrong? Yeah. I thought maybe I had lost my mind. I mean, it's possible. I probably have lost my mind. But actually, both things can be true. I've lost my mind, and that can be weird. But, I mean, I just was surprised that they were even favored. But what does your model have? My model has a straight-up win for the Chargers.

7:06Oh, okay, good. I do have some real reasons, too, but I really believe in it. If you are a fan of the feed, you'll have checked out on Thursday this came out, the new Power Players episode with the General Manager, or Assistant General Manager, Chad Alexander of the Chargers, who said, we want to bully the other teams. We want to build a bully. And I think you can kind of see that, that the culture that they've built, they really are more physical. And then you think about the Cowboys side of things. Probably no Quinnen Williams in this game. He's in the concussion protocol. Their offensive line has been really banged up.

7:40Up front, the Chargers are running the ball pretty well and they're getting after the pass rusher. So I actually think they're better up front than people realize. And their biggest weakness on the offensive line, Justin Herbert mitigates that. And I don't think it'll be as bad against the Cowboys than against most teams. Especially without Big Q if he doesn't play. And my hottest take here is the offensive line. Maybe they're figuring out just a little bit. I watched last week. I know it was against the Chiefs, but they're not a great pass rush. But Jamari Sawyer is their left tackle right now.

8:08And I think if they're playing a defense that doesn't challenge them in the way that Spagnuolo did with all these blitzes and everything, I think they can survive and let Herbo be Herbo. And you might get to sit back and enjoy like a 12-point win for this game. Don't even worry about the spread. Like it's a two-score win. Yeah, no, I'm completely with you. I just, for my first pick, I never see, so I have a more conservative model. A lot of things you see on TV, media models, are often very like reactionary. Like it'd be like 100%, 99%. Like there'll be like these massive swings. Like you should never, if you're a good modeler, you should never have something that goes from like a 99.9 % chance to the other team.

8:49That should happen once in like a million games. It shouldn't have. Anyways, so I digress. My point is I rarely see anything over 80%. Rarely. Like, it almost never happens. 80%, like 80 % they'll cover. No, 80 % that a team will win. Okay. Like, I just rarely see it. Usually it's like 70s is like something crazy. Okay. 80 % in my model implies 16 points. Okay? Which is why 14 points for Houston. Ooh, I love it. is what. And I'm not, no shade to the Raiders, although they only managed 75 yards of offense against the Eagles last week. I'm looking at this opportunity here. The Texans need it in order to ascend to the top of the AFC South, which I anticipate that they end up doing.

9:37I'm looking at this and not to kick a Raider while they're down, but. Why not? You said like no offense to the Raiders, all offense to the Raiders. unless you've been listening to this show in which you've been cashing in picks week after week. Last week, one of my picks was Philly minus 11 and a half. It almost felt too easy against the Raiders. They won that game by 31. Yep. That's fantastic. Yeah. And you, by the way, you hit your Texans pick last week. That was the one I was saying that you talked me out of. And I think it was an interesting moment for them because they've had such a tough schedule.

10:13They've now come together. We know their defense is good. The offense is definitely playing better. and it was the first time we've seen them as a heavy favorite. Yep. And they kind of looked like a Super Bowl team. And so this is enough, you know. I think that the configuration of the Super Bowl team for the AFC is going to be all defense. I mean, to me, it's either the Broncos or the Texans. I know everyone's, like, excited about the Bills. But for Josh Allen, I don't know what I'm looking at. Plus, it's going to be hard for them to win the division. They're going to need two Patriots losses.

10:40They're not going to win the division. They're very likely not to win the division. Geno Smith was at practice just as a piece of information. for this game? I don't actually care. I mean, no offense. Like, again, I feel very mean because I like the, I love the, their branding's awesome. I love the history of the Raiders. I love it. Go to the branding. I love their, I mean, I do think Gino is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Of course, but. Yeah. They were one of the, right down here, if you're looking at my screen. Oh, love it. Because once I only had one, then I was like, okay, just write down some that I just kind of like.

11:12And I wrote down five of them. One of them was Houston. So you got that for us. But I ultimately have to memorialize that they have an 81 % chance to win. That's amazing. 81. The average fan, and I'm putting myself in that, would think it's even higher. But that's my point. I get what I mean. A conservative modeler would say. Yes. That's why I'm telling you. Like, for example, you know, the majority of my win totals end up being somewhere between 55 and 60. Okay. So to get 80. Okay. 81. Where is, I'm putting you on the spot here. Yeah, I have it right in front of me. Yeah. Where is your Lions percentage of winning this week against the Steelers?

11:52It is. They are favored by seven points. The Lions are, oh, dang it. I hate this. Five. Fifth most confident. Okay. But, like, what's the percentage? 57%. Okay. But that's not that crazy. No. Like, if you were. It's 56.7. But, you know, hoping that something good or bad was going to happen to you. when you hear you have a 57 % chance good, 43%. You wouldn't feel that good about it. No. There are a lot of close ones this week because some of these ones that are worth nothing have surprisingly close. There's a lot of volatility in outcomes that don't matter, like Tennessee and Kansas City. Exactly.

12:29And so that was like, what the heck? One of the reasons why I struggled to pick this week was the games, and there's five of them with two teams that are not in contention against each other. Right. I struggled with those types of games. And so that's why I went here, and I'm on the same side as you, and I know you're not going to go against your Lions for this. So I'm going Pittsburgh plus seven. Okay. Now, it's one of those games. I have them only winning by six, so. Okay. There you go. Yeah. So then we'd be on the same side. Yeah. That's right. Okay. I was thinking you said five. You've been fifth most confident, not five points.

13:01I'm sorry. Six points, the fifth in terms of confidence. Okay. I thought you were asking. But you have the Steelers covering. And honestly, that sick scenario is a huge reason why I really like the Steelers in this game. Because I think they can underperform. I think they can be a little disappointing in this game defensively. And lose the game 30-24. And we cover. And by we, I'm on the Steelers bandwagon this week. Why? Seven points is a lot for a game. You're on the Steelers bandwagon to win or to cover? I picked the Lions to win on our show Game Debut. So I got to go by that. Putting my money where my mouth is.

13:37But I wouldn't be surprised. And that's one of my maxims in making this is if you wouldn't be surprised that the team is going to win straight up and you're getting a big number. Usually for me, it's six or more. And I'm like, I can see them winning that game. Yep. I think this would be a good win for the Lions. I think the numbers, and this is where I'll ask you, the numbers love the Lions right now. I feel like some of the underlying numbers. DVOA, for instance, has them as the number three team in the entire NFL. And that's crazy to me. And I know you're making a skeptical view. I know your numbers don't have that.

14:12But I think because they're so good offensively, they are the number one scoring team in the league, that some of the models, and maybe yours is in there, they have them as a six-point favorite against an eight-and-six Steelers team. What are they seeing in the lines that maybe look at them as a better team than maybe I do right now? leverage because they're taking more risks and the Steelers to me the Steelers defense not being the Steelers defense that we're used to means that when you have when you take risks like going front and forth down like the Lions do then if they work even two-fifths of the time right 40 % of the time then you're going to score a touchdown instead of I think that when I look at a seven point win for the Lions in this scenario I think what it's saying is that the Lions risk riskiness on offense is overvalued.

15:00I would have thought it would be four points. Right. That sounds right. Four or five points. I wouldn't have thought a full touchdown. And it goes back to something we talk about on NFL Daily a lot. Do you value the entire season's worth of data, or do you value the last three or four weeks? And I think when I'm looking at the Lions and thinking about the players that they're missing, Sam Laporta's not coming back. Brian Branch is not coming back. Kirby Joseph he hasn't come back yet and when he does will he be okay we don't know about that Lions fans right now are like but what but do we get Christian Mahogany the guard maybe maybe and the but the offensive line is not coming back to being a dominant offensive line now one of the reasons why I'm a little dangerous it feels like I'm walking into a trap seven points and then I'm believing a little bit in what I've seen from Aaron Rodgers last couple weeks where I think he's had his best two games of the season in a row I'm like okay you're showing you guys are showing me some development on offense.

15:59TJ Watt not expected to play because of the lung situation. And then Nick Herbig, who is a dynamite replacement for TJ Watt, is out of practice, left the game late against Miami. It seems like he might miss this game with a hamstring injury. And so suddenly you're losing two of the best pass rushers in the AFC, like in the league. Like Herbig's in the top 10, 15 for pass rusher win rate, all that stuff. So you're losing two big pass rushers. you give Jared Goff some time. It might be like, I would take the over in this game. Big time. I like tons of points for both teams. I would like the lions over team total for sure.

16:37Yeah. I have, but I, but I actually kind of have big time over. I do not like where the lines defense is at right now. So that that's the big reasons. I kind of think the Steelers can keep up a little bit in a shootout and it's a one score game. I'm with you. I just, okay. Okay. So I told you, I don't like the games with nothing to play for. However, I do think one where there's one that I like, enough of what to play for to pick for them. And that's Tyler Shuck. The New Orleans Saints. Like that. Quietly, Tyler, so it's four and a half points at home. The Saints are favored over the Jets. And I think what I've seen from Tyler Shuck in this situation and also the fact that the Jets are on historic pace of not having any interceptions this season, even if they have one, they're still not going to be nowhere near being good at intercepting the ball.

17:22But I'm looking at this and I'm like, He's trying to prove that he's the quarterback to build around there. The Saints, they're sneaky good at stopping inside runs. And that's kind of the bag of tricks that Brees Hall and the Jets like to try to run. I don't trust a darn thing about this Jets. I know they fired their defensive coordinator. I get it. I think it's mean to fire a defensive coordinator after trading away Quinton Williams and Sauce Gardner with three games left. Whatever. Not my decision. But that's a weird decision, in my opinion. and I don't think that gives you the bump of being like, yeah, now we're going to go out there and beat the pants off of Tyler Shuck and the New Orleans Saints.

17:58No, they're going to run the football. They're going to have some nice passes. Shuck has done a good job of running the football himself. They've won two. They just beat the Panthers. They can do it, and they're at home. And they just beat the Bucs. Shuck is playing really well. I love that one. I don't know why I didn't write it down. I understand it was nothing for it. I mean, because these games where there's nothing. But I think Shuck has something. Shuck's sitting here being like, I'm your quarterback. He looks really good. He does. They have a couple injuries, Devon Vele and Devin Neal, but those aren't like superstar players.

18:26They're just playing a lot of snaps for them. He is playing as well, certainly, as any rookie quarterback right now in the NFL. And you know what's interesting about this one? Because I agree. We do an over-under pod at the beginning of the year. Yeah. It was me and Nick Wright this year. Yeah. And under Saints, five and a half was one of my picks. And they were at two and ten a couple weeks ago. And you were feeling good. So they would have had to win four out of five to finish the year to pull that off. If they win this game, that's three straight. And then they only need one more in the two games remaining are at Tennessee, at Atlanta.

19:02Two games where they're going to have an opportunity to win the game. They might even be favored in Tennessee. Oddsmakers know what the heck they're doing, huh? I might lose that. I might lose that. It's okay. It's okay. But I hope I do because that'll mean you were right. And they got to cover four and a half. I think they can. Last one. Thought about a few different big favorites. You took the Texans. So I'm going to take my other big favorite, and that's Buffalo minus 10.5. I just don't think the Cleveland defense is in the same place right now as it was a month ago. Who's playing for them?

19:29Other than Miles Garrett, it's like we get these emails about who's potentially out. And the Browns one, it's like this long. And you're like, well, maybe you should just tell me who's playing because most teams it's like this long. It's like a Dostoevsky novel. It is. If you look at the Browns. And very dark, just like Dostoevsky. Yes. It's like, and a lot of those players are offensive linemen for the Browns. Well, and then like Denzel Ward and Carson Schweisinger. Like, yes, there's some other ones, too. Ward says he'll play, but he keeps missing practice. So we'll see. Didn't he say he was going to play last week, too?

20:03I don't know. Fair. When you don't have any offensive linemen, I actually think the Bills overall up front have been better down the stretch. They are healthier. You don't have any offensive linemen. Yeah. I mean, that was the thing about. better if there's no offensive linemen. That was the thing about Shadir's performance last week. He did not play great, but you're literally playing with one starting offensive lineman. Well, they blitzed, and he was like, ah! Like, it's not good. Last two games for the Browns at home. Just went to check this. Lost by 18 to the 49ers in bad weather, too, which should have kept the score down.

20:37And lost to the Titans, which is, you know, that's a bad loss. So I think sometimes with these meaningless teams right now, you're at home i don't think that's an advantage it's just bad vibes there that place is miserable and on top of everything else this is more of an anti-browns than it is a pro bills but i'm very pro bills right now i think josh allen could still win the mvp whatever those odds are right now i would take him in terms of i don't know the value he's definitely not first he's pretty like stafford and yeah he's a pretty distant third i think he's got a real chance here although you'll have to you know put those in we'll see they have the worst special teams the browns uh in the entire nfl according to dvoa by a decent amount so i mean your offense is struggling the one thing that was good was your defense but now you're getting run on every week and the bills are great at running the ball so i i could see them this would be like an eagles raiders situation where they're winning this game by 25 30 points all right um can we pick a saturday game is that fair game?

21:41Absolutely. Okay. Because I like the Packers to cover one. They're road favorites by one point in Chicago. I know there's no Micah Parsons, I'm aware. Heard that. You know, I actually heard about that somewhere. I picked the Packers too, so I'm with you. I didn't feel good. That was just a stay away for me, but that is my pick for that game. I just, I know that there's a lot of hype around the Bears. I understand, but there's no Romo Dunze. Who else are we missing? Luther Burden. So even if DJ Moore's been playing great, which he has, you still now have a much different defensive capability of shutting down the past catching game.

22:20It's not even like you were seeing Caleb Williams light it up through the air anyways. I mean, he had a nice game last week, but like, okay. Like, I need to see it more consistently before I'm willing to go with that. But the Packers are really hard to run on. And I understand that Micah Parsons is not there, so they're going to, whatever, but they're built to not allow explosive runs or passes. So if they even get a few yards, it's okay. Cause they're better in the red area and then they're, and they're good at not allowing explosives. So I just think that the Packers show the bears why they're still the class of the division.

22:54Big LaFleur game. You know, nobody believed in us after the Micah Parsons thing. Wait, can we do that? We should do that handshake. That was so awkward with Ben that like, that was so good. Just the drive by Ben, Ben Johnson's hilarious. I mean, he, you know, he's going to keep his shirt. I think his shirt will come off after this one if he wins. I mean, you don't say that you enjoyed beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. So you stay in the division unless you really did enjoy beating Matt LaFleur twice a year. Bring back just like the smallest bit of trash talking. It's fine. These are confident men who trash talk a lot in real life.

23:28Let's do it in front of a microphone again. I'm with you on the trash talk, but just be good at it. Like, don't be. He's pretty good. That's good. He's weird. Is he weird? I kind of get the ick. They like him. I'm not saying he's not a great coach, but, like, I just feel like maybe he's, like, pulling it back. But, like, I kind of get the ick when he's talking about it. Like, I wish he would just say what he was going to say. Right. It was kind of like everyone got really fired up with the taking the shirt off thing. And I get that he got free hot dogs for the entire city. There was a whole story behind that.

23:59They said if he had taken off his shirt, then everyone gets free hot dogs at this hot dog stand. So he did everyone a solid. In Chicago. I don't know. I'm going to ask. While they're still there in Chicago, you've got to get as many hot dogs as you can. That was actually the biggest reason why I support your pick, is when the Bears put out that statement to their season ticket holders that they're considering every possibility, including moving to Gary, Indiana, a couple days before you play the Packers. Bad juju. It's an embarrassment. That's what bad organizations do, is put out a statement about possibly moving to Gary, Indiana, days before playing the Packers in the biggest game in a decade.

24:38Michael Jackson is from Gary, Indiana. And when you drive through it, so I'm from Michigan. I lived in Chicago. I went to a business school there, all that stuff. You drive home, you go through Gary, Indiana. You don't stop in Gary, Indiana. The fine folks of Gary taking... I'm sure that there are nice areas of Gary, but where they would put a stadium is not where you would have the nice areas. They're not tearing up any nice areas. It just gives too much trash-talking fodder for Packers fans. It's Indiana, not Illinois. Now Bears fans got to be on social all weekend, and they're going to hear everyone calling them the Gary Bears, you know, the Gary Berries.