Week 17 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

0:00Cynthia Frelund:This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Do you want to find a stress-free way to buy your next car? Start at CarMax and shop your way. If you want to browse with confidence, get pre-qualified online with no impact on your credit score and shop cars within your budget. From luxury cars to family rides, CarMax has options for almost every price range, including more than 25 ,000 cars priced under$25 ,000. So, hey, want to get started? Just head to CarMax.com for details and get pre-qualified today. Want to drive? CarMax. When you own your own business, you own every decision. Catch the red eye or take the 6 a.m.

0:42Cynthia Frelund:Make a new hire or promote internally. Celebrate a win with the toast at the gate or unwind at the lounge. Big props to this team. Some decisions are a win-win, like earning eight times points on Chase Travel. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business, the business card that gives back all you put in. Visit chase.com slash reserve business to learn more. Cards issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank. Any member of DIC. Subject to credit approval. Terms apply. Amazon presents Jamal versus the Shih Tzu. Descending from the gray wolf, Shih Tzus live by their own untamed primal code of not giving a single Shih Tzu.

1:21Cynthia Frelund:But Jamal shopped on Amazon and bought dog treats, chew toys, and 32 ounces of carpet cleaner. Hey, Jamal, you've been promoted to pack leader. Save the everyday with Amazon. 102 miles ago, the oil light came on. 100 miles ago, you noticed. Now, it's time to head to take five. This oil change, fall in love with your car all over again. In just 10 minutes, your dream technician will check your tire pressure, top off fluids, change your oil, and verify with Carfax exactly what your car really needs, all while keeping you in the driver's seat. Take five to stay in your car 10-minute oil change. Save up to 30 % on your next oil change to take five.

2:05Cynthia Frelund:$15 value, valid to participating locations, terms and conditions apply.

2:12Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love a little Christmas drama. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesleyan Podcast Studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland. And the drama that I'm referring to is not whether I can keep the 12 straight winning weeks going. No, we know you can. 13. No, the drama is, can we get Cynthia to a plane on Christmas Eve on time to see her in-laws? We'll find out, which means we've got to be efficient here. We're fine. We're going to be totally fine. So if you're listening to this, it's probably the day after Christmas or sometime over the weekend. And we hope you had a great holiday.

2:50This is the show where we pick three games against the spread each and every week. And yes, as I mentioned, I kept the winning streak going last week. Shout out to the Chargers for coming through for me. And let's move on to the week 17 picks. 31 and 17 on the season. Real good. I can't remember even what the other winning pick was, but who cares? Let's get to Cynthia's winning picks this week. What is your first one?

3:16Cynthia Frelund:I want to start off with a Saturday game because games of consequence feel like better opportunities to pick, especially if you're looking against the spread. So the very first one, the one where we, you know, know who's playing at least at the quarterback position, presumably. So ultimately, I think that the Texans take care of business and have the upset here at SoFi Stadium. Rainy. There's a tornado warning here in Southern California. Crazy stuff going on here, including the fact that I still think that when it comes down to which team will be able to exact their will on the other team's offense more efficiently and effectively.

3:51Cynthia Frelund:I mean, between Daniil Hunter and, you know, Will Anderson Jr., it's just going to be a lot of pressure and a lot of Justin Herbert's just going to have to contend with a lot, which is something he's been doing all season. However, I think Houston has the edge in this one. I'm torn on this one. As you know, we taped our show Game Day View, which if you're curious, you can always check out on YouTube. We appreciate everyone who watches this show on YouTube. Everyone should also be subscribing and checking out numbers games starring Cynthia Freeland. But it's put up on the NFL feed as our NFL picture.

4:22That's every game. And I pick the Chargers. But I don't feel strong about this one. And certainly last year's playoff game has you worried that the matchup for the Chargers is just a bad one. And I was a little surprised, actually, that they were favored in this.

4:37Cynthia Frelund:Do you know that Will Anderson Jr. on third down has 12 more pressures than the next closest player whose name is Miles Garrett? Just saying. That's 43. Good call. And I know, you know, you have respect for DVOA. You trust your model more, but they have a pretty big difference between these two teams. So they would support you. Number five team in the league. Well, when they support me, I like them. Yes, is the Texans. And the Chargers down there at 14 because their offense is so inconsistent. That was a stay away from me. A game I am going to pick. I really like four games this week. And so I'm struggling.

5:07I kind of want you to pick one of them. Okay. And then we'll see if that actually happens. No, I mean, and then it'll just like get it out of the way for me. I hate doing this because as we're taping, I'm not sure who's starting a quarterback for the Packers or the Ravens for sure. But the reason I'm comfortable taking it, and right now it's three points, it could certainly raise if it looks like it's going to be Snoop Huntley versus Jordan Love, which my gut tells me is the most likely outcome, but it could be Lamar Jackson versus Jordan Love. It could be Malik Willis. It doesn't matter. The Packers are going to cover this number no matter what it is.

5:43I just think that the Ravens are a dead team walking. I'm going to talk about the Bucs a little later, but they're in the same position for me. Okay. At least this week. Have you ever heard of a phrase called like a death wish? Yeah. You know, like someone who's almost going through, they almost have a death wish. Sometimes teams get a death wish, and it somehow comes out in the form of what happens in fourth quarters of games. Like suddenly, Zay Flowers fumbles the ball, and the defense starts giving up big plays when it comes to the Ravens. I just don't think this is a good team. And I think the Packers lost two brutal games where they played pretty well back to back.

6:22But I think they're ultimately a much better team. And I just think these two teams are in different classes. And I think the defense can give the Ravens some problems, you know, send some different looks. But it's really about the offense of the Packers. Even if it's Malik Willis, I think it can get a lot done on the ground and just beat this Ravens team and kind of put them out of their misery on Saturday night, clinch a playoff spot for themselves and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

6:47Cynthia Frelund:I mean, look, I think that's very interesting. I'm with you on the entire thing. And I'll add that the Ravens are only getting the fourth lowest pressure rate, meaning they're, you know, very not consistent at getting pressure on any quarterback. Malik Willis played admirably in the loss of the Bears. So it's not like, I mean, it's a step down, of course, because Jordan Love's in a different class, but like it's not this massive step down where you're like, oh no all hope is lost not even not even you just reminded me who my other uh right pick was last week unfortunately it was against your line oh i don't care just to steal remember i said it seems like they're trying to trick us seven points you also had the stealers covering i had the stealers covering the spread i just had the lions winning the game um let's go to your second pick okay my second pick what's the number you're seeing for uh san francisco on sunday night three okay yeah san francisco covers that number okay i think the night is that one of your four no oh wow okay I'm trying to guess your four based on knowing who you picked in every game.

7:42Cynthia Frelund:Didn't pick it. I do like the 49ers in that game if I had to take one, but that, you know, I respect them both enough. I stayed away. Yeah. It's not that I don't like the bears. I just think when one team's massive strength is to run the football or to create the, they're approximating runs with some of the stuff they do with Christian McCaffrey and his ability to keep things on the ground and not to, when you're so turnover reliant, like if you look at point differential, which isn't the only measure of something, someone's success. Like the Bears are at like 33 points. So meaning they're winning very close games.

8:14Cynthia Frelund:We get it. But they're also turnover reliant. When you're so turnover reliant and you're playing Kyle Shanahan the week after he just played and beat another Shanahan tree guy, I just think he's going to sit there and be like, okay. Because that is, talk about a watching film that's really relevant to what you do. That's the same fundamental offense as the Green Bay Packers. Right? Different people, different strengths and weaknesses, but the same ideas and concepts, the same trees. So I just, I have struggled to find a way for them to keep that going unless they get some crazy amount of turnovers, but I don't think that happens.

8:48I've loved Brock Purdy's decision-making lately. I think he's throwing dimes too. Because you watch it, you're like, who threw that spiral? He, he, Joe, Joe Montana completes some highly difficult throws, but sometimes he almost tries too many. And I think he's really had it dialed in of what to go for and what not to. And I just think that offense is a wagon. So I'm with you. I like that pick. This was just a week. You know how last week I was like, man, there's only one game I really love. This week I loved like five. And so that wasn't one of my loves. That was one of my likes. Let's go to another love.

9:22Cynthia Frelund:Okay.

9:26Because if it was actually my money, what is your third pick going to be? I want to see if it's one of mine. So then you can just take it.

9:33Cynthia Frelund:Can we just point it at it so I don't want to? Yeah, sure. This one. Okay, that was going to be one of mine. So I will let you take that. That's perfect. Okay. Let's go to the Rams. Okay. Okay. I'm not going to say that the Rams are going to try harder because they lost. Although Sean McVay has been saying that. He's just like, this is going to make us stronger. This loss. I can see it. Here's what else is going to make you stronger. Having extra rest. I was about to say it another day. having extra rest against the Atlanta Falcons. Three days extra rest at this time of year. I think it's a thing.

10:04And then playing the Atlanta Falcons. That's the thing. You just put up 580 yards on the Seattle Seahawks defense, and now you're going to go up against Raheem Morris, someone you're very familiar with, who really has only had good games this year defensively when he can confuse the other opponent, when they can send all sorts of blitzes and they get really creative. Just try it against Matthew Stafford. he's seen it all before Sean McVay kind of knows what's coming and they're going to have perfect conditions there in the dome not much of a home field advantage I don't believe in Atlanta and a team that really needs to win the game and I think they'd love to make a statement and like rest guys in the fourth quarter of this game that's how good I think that they are so good luck trying to convince him and also it's on Monday night little MVP magic here and on the flip side it's like Kirk Cousins has been good, but he's only been good when he hasn't faced much, much pressure.

11:01And I think he will face some pressure. So there are seven and a half point favorites. I thought it'd be a little more, frankly. I just don't think the Falcons, I know they've won six games and they're not one of the worst teams in the league or anything, but at this point in the season, I would take 10 for the Rams and feel fine about it.

11:17Cynthia Frelund:Yeah, no, I think that could get bit up too, and I'd be comfortable with it. All right. My last one, new England. Yes. That was, that was one where like if if it was actually we're not allowed to uh to bet we're not and i love that for us although this year it would have been profitable for me um but if it was actually my money i think i would maybe go with that but it didn't seem as interesting to me it almost just seemed seemed too easy what would you bid it up to so like where is it right what are you seeing like 16 and a half it's at 13 and a half right now yeah so sub 14 that's crazy yeah so to me i I would have bid it up probably to six, 16, something that would be more comfortable like that.

11:57Cynthia Frelund:Like I, so when you see the differential of three points, like tasty, especially for your conservative model, to have a number that big. Yes. What is the Brady cook factor in your model? Unfortunately for Brady cook, it's the problem. The problem that he has is that there's a lot of great pieces of this new England defense that are maybe even a little bit underrated, like Caleb on chase on, like we don't talk about him enough, although his name is fun to say. So we should. But, you know, he was a bargain. And coming off the edge, he's done great. You know who's going to come back this week, by the way?

12:27Who? Milton Williams.

12:28Cynthia Frelund:I wasn't even, I didn't, I was doing this without even factoring Milton Williams in. And he was their big money. They were very spendy on him. And it paid off. So, I don't know. I just think this is a, not to say that the Jets don't have anything to play for, but like, things will seem. I mean, they don't. No team is truly tanking harder than the Jets. Now they put Brock Bowers on injured reserve. Right. That would be much lower on my list. The Raiders game. That's a little bit of a tank move, but playing Brady Cook is a tank move. They could be playing Terod Taylor. But think about it. The Raiders, Pete Carroll, Pete Carroll, he's going to try.

13:03Cynthia Frelund:Yeah, I'm staying far away from that. Stay the heck away from anything to do with Pete Carroll and the Giants. Just don't do it. Yes, I totally agree. Because that one, coin flip, truly a 50-50 to me. Here's a great stat about the Jets that I had ready in case this was my pick. in the last three weeks, they have been outscored 111 to 36. That is an average of 25 points. And it's not like one week was 40 and the other was 10. No, they were all 22 and above for three straight weeks. And two of those games were against teams that were well under 500. So they weren't even good teams. The Jags beat them up too.

13:39And they're a good team. But yeah, I think the Pats killed. All right, my last one is one of those teams that beat up on the Jets a couple weeks back. It is the Miami Dolphins plus five and a half. Let's get frisky with Quinn Ewers in week 17. Over the Bucs. Don't doubt me. Although I do lose one every week. It's usually two and one, not three and oh, but I've had a winning week, 12 straight weeks. Quinn Ewers in that game. And this one I wouldn't feel comfortable about if I didn't go back and watch it. I thought he played fine. He did. They had three straight turnovers in the third quarter. Maybe one was his fault, but the other was a fluky tip.

14:18The other was a fumble by, you know, one of his teammates. And the other was just, they got stuffed on a fourth and one. And when I talked about the death wish, I just got bad vibes about this Bucks team. And so I'm taking the,

14:30Cynthia Frelund:you have worse vibes about the Bucks than the Dolphins. No, but the Bucks, but the bad vibes have already passed. Like the Dolphins have already absorbed their bad vibes. And now they're in a post bad vibe world. It's more that close late in games. They're playing like Baker Mayfield plays. Just a little frenetic. And I can see them winning this game. I initially picked them to win this game. But five and a half is just a lot for me for a team that doesn't do anything well right now. If you kind of look at all their underlying metrics like you do, run defense is okay. But I don't think they'll be good on the outside.

15:07They're slower against Devon H. Everything else is below average. like run offense, run passing offense, passing defense, especially like they're just a mediocre team. These to me are two mediocre teams. The Bucks are like two and seven in their last nine games. I mean, that's, yeah, no, it's not good. That's pretty brutal. And the, the Dolphins, they're okay. So to me, this is like one of those coin flip games. I, that's how I see it. And so the fact that I'm getting five and a half means I'll take the five and a half. And it means on game debut, since I truly do believe in my heart, it's a coin flip game.

15:38I might as well just take the Dolphins to win.

15:40Cynthia Frelund:Because we only count the straight ups as our And because you and Patrick are taking me to the woodshed this year. So that's why you should do it. It's a good strategy. I'm doing much better against the spread than I am straight up. That's awesome. That's it. We made it. We did it. Thank you so much. Merry Christmas. Cynthia, you are the best. Like I said, check out Numbers Game. Just so you guys all know, you think he's cool when you listen to him on this podcast. He's like 10 times better in real life. You know what Cynthia did, though? She baked 11 different types of cookies. She spent an entire day.

16:13More than that. Entire week and brought in 11 different types of selections of cookies for everyone in makeup and hair and production to have. I'm extra. That's the kind of woman that Cynthia is. All right, we got to get you to your in-laws. Merry Christmas to you, Cynthia, and to everyone listening. We will be back in the audio feed and on YouTube.

16:36Cynthia Frelund:Going 3-0 this week. Yes. I'm calling it. I'm calling my shot. We're going to talk about the Christmas games. We're going to recap that. I'm going to have Will Gavin, my friend from Talk Sport, will do that on Friday afternoon. So have a look for that. We will see you then.

16:54This is an iHeart Podcast.

16:57Cynthia Frelund:Guaranteed human.