Week 2 Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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1:20American Military University. It is made for what's next. Learn more at amu.apus.edu. This is Tab Ramos from Inside American Soccer. And this summer, Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination. They've got a new soccer-themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items. They've even installed full-size soccer goals so you can try to hit golf balls right into the net. And every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue. And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the Topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit.

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2:07Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're not feeling great about that Lions to the Super Bowl prediction. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris Wesseling Podcast Studio with my friend Cynthia Freeland for our weekly pick segment, which used to be called Man vs. Machine, but we thought that was unfair to Cynthia, who is a living, breathing woman with emotions. She's not a machine. Emotions? Where are those? Your computer model doesn't have emotions, and that's what really is nailing these picks for you week after week. It was me who picked the Lions to the Super Bowl, and I'm feeling a little uneasy. I even rode with them last week against the Packers.

2:47that's one of the reasons why I have a losing record so far on the season. I went one and two. And yes, if you're watching on YouTube, we love you. The YouTube audience big for this show. I'm one and two. Cynthia, you went two and one. I had the Lions, as I mentioned. I also lost on the Giants. Terrible pick there. My Jaguars came through for me. You were on both sides of crazy comebacks. You got the bills to help you out, but the Bears let you down in the fourth quarter. and then you also had the Bucs. So you start off two and one. And then I do scribble all those teams at the end. What are the scribbles doing?

3:23Last week, the scribbles went three and two. We're going to keep track unofficially. Well, you know, scribbles are like where it's at. Last year, the scribbles were good. Those were the extra picks. Today, I only have two extra picks. I want to start with you, though. You get to go first because, as everyone knows, your model nailed the Super Bowl prediction before a year ago. You won this competition a year ago, and you went two and one last week. And my Super Bowl picks won their first. games so that's good what was it this year over eagles okay yeah so i mean i'm not those defense got something to work i'm not saying i feel great about it but they're they're both one and out and that's all i care about you know one one week at a time greg um okay let's start i'm gonna see how spicy i want to be um look i'm gonna keep this one pretty um pretty boring and neutral um i think Cincinnati as three and a half is not I don't like the half I don't care I have them winning by six you know I'm a pretty conservative modeler so I think Cincinnati wins by more than three and a half points at home against the Jacks when you say you're a conservative modeler maybe explain to the listeners what that means so you can put a lot of volatility into when you when you model and code like this you can put a lot of volatility into it like you can weight different things and give it lots of different weights.

4:39So it could, you know, like, oh, you know, you know what's a good example? When you watch some other networks have, like, the win probability. Sure. And when you see a win probability go from 99 to the other team winning more than once in, like, a lot of games, then they're modeling not conservatively enough. They're a little loose. They're playing fast and loose with their model. Because if something really is 99 %... Your numbers are tight. That's why when we pick all the games and all the scores on Game Debut, which is on Apple Network every Friday, it's very rare for you to have more than a 10-point game.

5:16You always have it pretty close. And that makes sense because if you run all the outcomes, that makes sense. This is going to be the first time this year, and I do not like doing this. We were on the other side. But I only had two picks that I was definitely taking. My model is extremely volatile. it's vibes based yeah no it's it's eyeball test based it's how i believe in the teams and the players and what i've seen based and that all leads me with no statistical modeling to picking the jags plus three and a half now your model takes emotion out of the equation maybe i'm just too happy that the jags gave me an easy sunday a week ago when i took them over the panthers you're like take a more interesting game no we want winners i think well one of us is going to be a winner on this one.

6:00I think they guarantee one of us wins. That is true. It's unfortunate when we're guaranteeing a one and one between the two of us because I want us both to do well. I thought they were cohesive in terms of their running game. When I watched their offensive line, I thought, oh, wow, that is a really well coached offensive group who struggled last year running the ball and their offensive line struggled. And week one, you could see it. And then on the other side of the ball, I see really good pass rushers. Josh Hines Allen, Trayvon Walker, you got Arik Armstead in the middle and I see a Bengals offensive line that didn't play great last week.

6:32The Bengals offense in general wasn't great. I'm going to pick this game straight up for the Jaguars on game debut. You don't have to do that here but that extra half a point don't you have a slang word for that? The hook. The hook. Yeah. Yeah, it hooked me. Like that extra half a point, it's like, okay, I'm making this one of my picks. Because I think they can win straight up. I think these two teams are relatively even. I'm taking the Jaguars plus three and a half wow okay well i i i mean i look here here are i'll just give you my quick points on why my mouth's on the other side of that um number one jamar chase and in games when when he's following not having an output a sub 30 yard output it's like 113 yards is his average and following game yeah the following and not to say and that's not the reason for it it's because of what that actually means.

7:27It means they rethink the game plan. They go back to the drawing board. Plans B, C, D didn't work. I still saw something that was great with that Noah Fant touchdown from Joe Burrow. It was a blitz. It was on a blitz. And Joe Burrow was still incredible against the blitz. So this is something where they started slow. They always start slow. We get it. But ultimately... They were trying not to this year. It's all they ever talked about in the preseason and all this stuff. And then they come out and they had under 150 yards against the Browns and puppies. We get it. Yeah. That's part of that is part of my reasoning.

8:00And I don't know how much your model is obviously baking in their historical greatness on offense overall, compared to just what you saw week one, or maybe their historic struggles early in the year. I am leaning a little bit on what I saw by the Jaguars defense, and it might end up being misleading because they were playing the Panthers. But what I saw out of them was a creative group with Anthony Campanile is the new defensive coordinator. And I just like what I saw. Jordan Lewis and Tyson Campbell. I think their secondary is not great, but it might not be a big negative like it used to be in the past.

8:36One way to look real stupid with your secondary, play Jamar Chase, T. Higgins, and company. I'm not suggesting that they're not good, but I think we saw maybe over-index of looking very good last week, and now they're probably going to, I mean, And they're going to come back to the pack. That's right. All I need is this Jaguars running game, which I think is going to be good against a pretty lackluster Bengals defense in my mind. All I'm going to need is just to keep up in a little bit of a score fest. So it could be 27 to 24. You know what? Even if the Bengals win, I win. So we'll see. I hope it comes down to three because that's just funny.

9:17I mean, if I'm going to lose, I only want to lose if it's on the hook. All right. So that's why we've already knocked out one picky. you go for your second pick. Okay. So I'm just trying to decide how spicy to be here because I know we had our production meeting for our game day studio. True, it gives away our picks a little bit. But these should be your favorites. You don't need to go spicy. Do the ones you're the most confident in, no matter who they are. I mean, if I'm going most confident, no, because then I'm picking things. No, no, no. We're going to pick some that I like the most. How about that?

9:48Sure. I think New England wins. Interesting. I think New England beats Miami. Interesting. So if you're going to want to give me a point and a half, I will take that point and a half because Miami favored at home by one and a half points. New England, listen, I picked them last week and they burned me. But some weird things happened. One, Drake May took conservatively, I think he threw the ball like 355 times. That was a lot of passes. 207 passing yards. He had the most passing attempts that we've seen him have. We didn't see him use as like seven, seven rushing yards, seven rushing yards. So maybe the theme is seven because the Bengals had seven yards of offense in the second half, and I'm picking them.

10:25And Drake May had seven rushing yards in this last matchup. But this is something where yards off of scrambles are something where Drake May, you know, between I think it was week eight and 18, I think he actually led the league in scrambling yards, once he became the starter last year. So I think we use, number one, that. And number two, the swing pass to Travion Henderson. What does Josh McDaniels love to do? Swing pass, swing pass, swing pass. That's all we ever see. Why didn't we see those last week? I don't know. Travian Henderson can catch the ball. I think they figure out a way to make the run game, even if it's a run by proxy of short passes.

11:02Fine. Still short yardage game. I think it's going to be much improved. Look, I'm on your side with this one. It wasn't going to be one of my picks just because these teams. You're on my side? You have New England winning? I mean, I have New England winning. What? I mean, it's great news. I mean, this is great news. Is it really? I went 1-2 last week. Although if you count the extras, it was, you know, 500. You did great. I think it's great. Stop it. So their running game really struggled last week. I think that was part of the reason why Drake may just look a little jumpy, uneven. I don't know if it was.

11:32Drake may watch that Daniel Jones footage and be like, two rushing touchdowns for Daniel Jones. I can at least score one. I think he could. And that Dolphins defense has a lot of talent in it. There's a lot going on with this Dolphins team. My issue only with this game was just these two teams. I don't know what to make of them early, and so I'm just going to stay away. I believe, though, in a different team in that division. Who? The Jets. The Jets. You think they win? I mean. Or you think they just keep it closer than what? They are underdog here. Six and a half points. Six and a half points.

12:11I believe. Justin Fields looked so good last week. He was calm. He was accurate. He was composed. And their running game was destroying the Pittsburgh freaking Steelers. Like Brees Hall, 18 yards. Brees Hall, 14 yards. I love them up front. What did the Bills do last week? I know they were playing the Baltimore Ravens. But they gave up 238 yards on the ground. That many? I think they've been searching on defense throughout training camp and the preseason for players in the back end, especially, that can hold up in terms of the safety position and tougher players in terms of stopping the run. If I could pick almost any other team in the AFC, they wouldn't want to see this week.

12:54It's the running and maybe even a little gunning New York Jets. Now, yes, I am taking them to win this game, which is a desperate pick in week two. I'm already trying to chase you on the picks. I don't know why. I know they're almost a touchdown underdog. That you could do with the odds and whatnot. Take them to win straight up. But I feel really good. This show is only about the number. Six and a half points for this Jets team. I'm not overly confident in the Jets defense at all. I think it's going to be a high-scoring game where both running games get a lot done. I think the Jets keep it close.

13:32James Cook is streaking, right? He's had five games in a row with a rushing touchdown. No, I'm just curious if you think he gets an answer. Yeah. Yeah, I think he keeps that streak alive. Their offensive line is awesome. And you talked about that last week a lot with Othyrus Torrance and the continuity. Yeah. It's underrated because people are like, you know, Josh Allen's making it happen with this ragtag group around him in terms of the receivers. First of all, again, Coleman's a first-round pick, like early second. Like, he's getting better. Khalil Shakira's good. I mean, nine of them each had nine targets.

14:02All three of their main wide receivers had nine targets. But, yeah, I would point out, like, that offensive line is a weapon. And if so, it's kind of like Mahomes three years ago in that first year without Tyree Kill. You give a quarterback at the peak of his powers a great offensive line, you don't necessarily need incredible weapons. And that's why Jets to win the game doesn't feel like amazing. But I think the Steelers were very lucky to win that game last week. I think the Jets have something a little special, and they're going to be fighting hard to avoid that 0-2 start to the season. So I believe in my New York Jets.

14:33I've adopted them. You've adopted them? Yeah. Okay. I had them go into the playoffs as my seventh seed. This is something the model wouldn't do, which is get too attached to your preseason. Yeah, that's the thing. Like sometimes, I mean, listen, attachment is a big deal. Yeah. And it's fun. It's why we become fans. But you have to be able to separate your picks from your attachment. Otherwise, you know, we're going to have to take all your little chips and pull them off the table. Okay. But if you just look at the numbers from a week ago. I'm not saying the Jets aren't great, but I'm saying you can't overly, you know, you have to like let next play every, every player will tell you whether it's good or bad, you can't use, you know, you just gotta be, there's gotta be, you know, disciplined, the discipline of, of, of chill.

15:17The jets, what they put on the field last week as a product to me, that looked like a seven seed type of team for what it's worth. And this is just the numbers DVOA. You know, I think you respect DVOA, but maybe it's, I respect DVOA, you know, I'm not, it's a rivalry a little bit. They're in the numbers game. You're trying to argue. They got the Jets as the 10th best team after last week, and the Bills were down to the 20s. Big sample size. I'm going to tell you something. After one game. I know. I like your conviction. I'm not saying not to be a fan. I'm just saying to separate. This is fan time from this is math time.

15:51Yeah, that's it. I have to say that to myself, too. I have to code this stuff without any names on it, because teams that pay me money, like the freaking Broncos and the Precies, I tend to like them better, right? now we're getting the real stuff I loved it but I have to do it with things I feel very agnostic towards that's how I code it so I don't know if this year because I'm a psychopath it's different types of dogs and I do have thoughts on that but I'm not the Yorkie beating whatever the German Shepherd I'm going to take the German Shepherd and I do think and you'll see this with my next pick too well you want mine pick yet?

16:28I do think there is something about the teams trying to avoid being 0-1 The Bills are coming off like a historic, amazing win at home. Is there any little, not trap, but just a little more emotional. You know, like it's a little bit of a letdown. All right, give me your last pick. All right, well, we talked about how I get emotional about teams. There's two teams that have actually emotions on both sides that I like. I love the Broncos. But Luis Anarumo is one of my very favorite humans, like, ever. So they're playing each other. Like how high on the list? I mean, that's a lot, humanity. I mean, I don't really like a lot of people.

17:04Top 30? Oh, for me. Oh, wow. So he's above me. No. He's a hit. He's not above you. He's not above you. I would like to see that ranking because, you know, 30s, that's pretty lofty praise. All right, but does that mean you're picking him? No. Picking the Broncos. It's two and a half points. The reason, just like you talked about, it's the two and a half. To me, Bo Nix, four turnovers. Now, you're talking about Sean Payton. what does sean payton what do you think happened to bo nicks after turning the ball over that many times last game i'm gonna guess it wasn't pretty it just started running the ball essentially you mean in the game or no like when they were watching it back on the camera like my point is is there's a reason why some of these hall of fame coaches keep their jobs for so long it's because they don't like these are the types of things like this crap doesn't happen again like it doesn't Now, mostly the reason I'm picking them is because the Denver Bronco defense is the best unit in this game, and it's not close.

18:01And the second reason, Charverius Ward is very unlikely to play, which helps Bo Nix's ability to not turn the ball. And that's entered into the model. No Ward at this point. Injuries. Right now, it's Ward 50 % because I don't know if he's going to play or not. I can switch it closer to the time, but even with Ward 100%, it's still three points in favor of the Broncos. I would put Ward at close to 0 % at this point because if you miss practice early in the week, you're in the protocol, so that's even more in your favor. Yeah, I'm with you on this one. I struggled with it. The heart of it all likes the Colt story.

18:37Of course, I like the Colt story too. I think the defense is going to be difficult for teams to go against this year, much improved, but ultimately I agreed with every single point that you made, so I just won't repeat it. But that defense, yeah, we'll see. We'll see how real the Danny Dimes renaissance is. Okay, so I wrote down, sometimes I got a lot of games I really like. Sometimes I just have four. That was this week. So I gave you my top two. Four is the minimum. Yeah, well, no, I don't know. Three could, no, some weeks it's like two, and you're really forcing it. This time I have really four I really liked, and then there was a pretty big gap.

19:16There was like one more I'll throw in there. So maybe you can help me because I'm curious which side of either the Falcons plus three and a half or the Seahawks plus three you're on. And you might be opposite me on both of these. But I like them both for different reasons. I'm leaning towards the Falcons one. I actually have both of those. You agree with me? so the one I would technically agree with you looking at my model right now the one I technically agree with you more on is what is it Minnesota's at three and a half I have Minnesota winning by three so that's a hook there but then I have a two point win in favor of Pittsburgh only so I technically agree with you a little bit more on Seattle very close though extremely I mean this is tricky because I'm going to go with my gut and go with that extra half point the hook is getting me again and go with the falcons plus three and a half as my official yeah third pick i like both these games though yep for different reasons i'll run through them both because that would have been one of my yeah written down yeah add it to add it to the extra game which means it's gonna hit okay i think their quarterback is better right now atlanta you know michael penix versus jj mccarthy i just think he's more mature he showed more we'll see where McCarthy is.

20:36I think the Atlanta secondary showed me a little something in week one that I'm excited about. A couple of rookies, Billy Bowman and Xavier Watts. Xavier Watts really played well in that game. And I thought AJ Terrell was kind of looking peak AJ Terrell. He's a guy who had an all pro season, but he's had injuries. He struggled a little bit. Last week, I thought he looked awesome against the Bucs. He did. That was a game where if you play that game over the way it played out, like the numbers would tell you that the Falcons really outplayed the Bucs, but they ended up losing that game. And then this is the dumb part of me, why I'm leaning towards it.

21:11I do sometimes look at the two teams and just think, well, they look like one to one teams to me. You know, neither one of these teams deserve to be 0 and 2. Neither one of these teams deserve to be 2 and 0. And we see this a lot in the NFL that a lot of times teams respond well to losses. And so three and a half points is what does it for me. I don't really feel strong about the Falcons winning in particular, but I like that three and a half points based on everything I saw. Raheem Morris year two with his defense, they cover. Yeah, I'm with you on that. My asterisk on this one, just like the little note that could adjust it, but would adjust more in favor of Atlanta, is if we see the health of, like, is Darnell Mouy?

21:53He sounds like he's playing. He's practicing. We don't know for sure, but that's a good one. Again, that's just an asterisk. but it just reinforces your point and no Blake Cashman for the Vikings that is confirmed he's on injured reserve and I think that could be a problematic spot for them it's like Ivan Pace and you could attack the middle of the field there Kyle Pitts looked pretty good Seattle to me is more of a I just think they match up well I think all those zone runs that the Jets had against the Steelers last week the Seahawks can do that I think the pass rush against Aaron Rodgers who did a lot of really good things last week but he didn't handle the pass rush well at all he took four sacks and and kind of was panicked when he was under pressure i think they could get preppy baby right so three points i really like that game too like i said i liked four a lot this week but i will go with atlanta officially as my as my third in the seattle plus three as my little extra and uh just because i'm feeling generous to the listeners browns 11 and a half i'll take i'll take the browns to cover that 11 and a half i'm feeling a little spicy i thought they played joe Flacco.

22:54I mean, you're going to try to bring the Browns in, the organization you ripped away from, like, one of the best football towns in the world, and you do your 30th anniversary of the franchise celebration with everyone coming in on the day the Browns come into town. I mean, that's certainly intentional. And I see you, and I think that's bad football god Juju. I mean, it's definitely something. like the model can account for that no the model doesn't know what that means but but ultimately I mean I didn't realize they were doing that yeah it's who's in charge over there I mean it's a rivalry but that's honestly part of the reason why I like the Browns in this game I thought their rookies looked great last week and I just think they're going to be a little better this season it's a divisional matchup where there's a lot of familiarity and so it's a lot and we They were 11 and a half points.

23:48And the Ravens have had vulnerability to 12 personnel, two tight end sets. So there are reasons to support your findings. Little Harold Fannin Jr. action. Also, his name is Harold. I love that. I don't know why. I don't know anyone named Harold. But I love the idea that his name is Harold. I love that he's a 44 playing tight end and fullback. There aren't many true, like they call people jokers. He's a real joker. He's moving in every position. I saw him blow open a hole on a touchdown run on the goal line. That was cool. That was why he was one of my winners on the extra picks last week, plus five and a half.

24:23All right, that's enough. We got to get down for our show, Game Day View. You can check out Cynthia on her YouTube page, Numbers Game, each and every week if you want even more picks from Cynthia. Really getting deep into the numbers every single game. And she's got a new show, too, with CBS analyst Logan Ryan. So everyone... Logan's great. Check out that. Logan is really, really good on the broadcast. I listen and with you. That is it. We will hopefully do even better for all of you guys. Yeah, we will. This week, it'll be the last time you hear from us in the feed until Sunday night when we are back with our recap show.

25:03They're letting you leave the building here now? No. I will be staying until Sunday night. Got it. For all those games, me, Jordan Roderick, Patrick, Claybon, and Nick Schuch. See you Sunday night.

25:19Wasabi is purpose-built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees. Wasabi is the go-to provider for professional and collegiate sports teams around the world. Check out Wasabi's AI-enabled, intelligent media storage, Wasabi Air, to the industry's only cloud storage service with triple protection against cyber criminals. Wasabi, driving innovation in data storage for up to 80 % less than market competition. Try for free at wasabi.com. Wasabi Hot Cloud Storage, proud partner of iHeart Podcast Network. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products, and more.

26:08Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game. Shop in-store or online now and earn your Sunday with help from Lowe's, official partner of the NFL. This is Tav Ramos from Inside American Soccer. And this summer, Topgolf is turning into the ultimate soccer destination. They've got a new soccer-themed game you can play with your group, exclusive food and drink items. They've even installed full-size soccer goals so you can try to hit golf balls right into the net. And every match all summer long will be on throughout the venue. And if you want to keep the fun going all summer, you can get the Topgolf Summer Fun Pass, which lets you play every single day and bring up to five guests every visit.