Week 5 NFL Picks From London with Cynthia Frelund

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2:45It's Cynthia Freeland. The fans demanded it. They said, we don't want anyone else on the pick show. We want Cynthia and we want winners. And Cynthia, you're a winner, even if when we pick the Jets, we didn't pick winners. Maybe we just need to stop. We might need to boycott picking the Jets in any capacity. If they're going to have that many turnovers and that many penalties, they're just going to make us look like fools. But, you know, maybe that's the new rule. Yeah, we are struggling right now at this point in the season, and we're not going to focus on that. What we're going to do is focus on moving forward.

3:22And I got to say, despite my ugly record, and I went one and two again last week, I have not been as confident in any slate all season long. I really like three of these picks. And one of these picks is my favorite pick of the entire season. I'm going to save that because I'm curious if you have the same one. Why don't you get us going with your first pick? Well, I want to get back on the right side of good. So I'm going to start with the bills. I think they're going to, they're playing the Patriots at home. I know the division rival. Oh, this might be the one that you like the most. I know division rival situations are what they are.

3:58However, and I know the bills defense has some ability to, you know, give up a bunch of yards, but I don't think Josh Allen is going to let anything too bad happen, especially not at orchard park. So I think I can take the bills and I believe they're at a seven and a half point favorite. So I have the bills by at least eight, the Pats plus eight and a half or whatever it is is one of my three it's one of your three it's one of my three and I could change it because I don't like the the juju of the two of us struggling at the same time and then going against each other but it was one of my three one of my three okay alright I'm fine being on the opposite side of it I have Buffalo you think Buffalo is going to win though right I do.

4:45The Bills, if you look at the last couple of weeks, and I know this is dangerous, we played two of the worst teams in the NFL, in the Dolphins and the Saints. They won by 10 points and won by 12 points. They did not cover either time. I think the Patriots are quietly really good on offense. I think it is a mismatch for the Patriots offense when the Bills defense is on the field. Right now, the Bills are making a lot of mistakes. I think Drake May is playing well enough that he can keep up in a shootout. I usually don't like going Patriots, my heart and my head together. But I truly do believe the Bills have had the easiest schedule in the league, essentially, and that the Patriots is the big game for them.

5:37they're scheming open open receivers week after week i think the running game is starting to get going i think the patriots are going to give up a ton of points and the defense is going to be a problem and the bills win but you're telling me i get to get on the winning side of this if it's 40 to 34 if it's 34 to 28 i'm taking that i think the bills should just be happy to win this is the second best team in their division division rivalry cynthia come on all right i mean yeah I'm fine with it. I'm good with it. I'm fine with it. You know, I'm great. I just think the Bills, look, when I'm looking at the Bills, I like O-lines.

6:17I like really strong O-line play, and no O-line has performed better than the Bills. Josh Allen's been under the least amount of pressure. I know Milton Williams is doing well. I know Christian Barmore actually has the highest pressure rate amongst defensive tackles. I still don't care. I still just think that Josh Allen and what the Bills offense has going for them is just a little too bad. I don't think they're going to like cream them. I like that word. I'm going to bring it back. They're not going to cream them, but I think eight points, I think nine points, something like that. You said 10 and 12 over the past two weeks.

6:43Just saying. Yeah. But that was against the Dolphins and the Saints. You know, they've had a three game homestand. It's been a very generous start to the season other than that Ravens game, which is a tough way to start the year and sound a way to win that. Josh Allen in primetime is a little frightening. All right. My second pick is the Colts to win by six and a half, more than six and a half. Okay. They're playing the Raiders. They're at home. Six and a half is not a touchdown. That's a good number. There's no, see the problem with the bills when it almost made me not take it with that little hook at the end there.

7:18Right. And I never want to push either. No one likes ties. I think ties are stupid. So anyways, long story short, six and a half in favor of the Colts who, you know, look, they almost pulled it off against the Rams. It was a weird finish to that game. This is a team that barely punts. Obviously, they did it three times in the second half last week. But I just think that the Bills on both sides, even with Xavier and Howard, like, surprise retiring, I still think that they have a lot of positive things going on for them on the offense and on the defense. Not the least of which is Jonathan Taylor, who only rushed for 76 yards last game.

7:50I know the Raiders held the Bears to something like, I don't know, 69 total yards and two in the first half. But I think that's more of a function of the Bears lackluster run game than it is the Raiders ability to really consistently stop them. Save for Max Crosby, who is his, you know, we love Max Crosby. So other than the elite Max Crosby, like you run the other way, they have a good opportunity. Yeah, the last time the Raiders went east, the defense didn't travel with them to Washington. This is a much different match. I do think they get a little juice at home, Max Crosby and everything. They're in Indianapolis.

8:27that's what I mean and so I I think on the road I'm I'm less convinced by this defense which is not that talented like they're playing they're one of the only teams out there that just they just play two cornerbacks they don't really play they play their three linebackers they play their two cornerbacks and the two cornerbacks are Eric Stokes and Q Blue Kelly and you know they got it's a cool name it is very cool Devin White's out there and think about what the line would be Cynthia if A.D. Mitchell hadn't dropped that ball you know going into the end zone and if A.D. Mitchell hadn't held on a play where he really didn't need to one of the best runs of the year I think just pure run Jonathan Taylor last year had a long touchdown run called back from that holding call don't you think the line let's say they beat the Rams in that game and they're 4-0 wouldn't the line here be like 7.5 or 8 or would they really be a different team I don't think so Right.

9:23Right. So I, I, is that one of your three? That is not, but I am curious with like your numbers. If you see stability, have the Colts shown enough on offense that like now your model sees them as real. Yeah. And in large part, because the combination of an improved O-line like compared to last year, their O-line year over year is, is better. It's a significant jump. And also, which you see that mostly in Jonathan Taylor's results. And also what you're seeing from Daniel Jones is his ability. Like, I'm not like crowning him some sort of like second. Like, I'm not. Indiana Jones to me is like one of my favorite like action heroes growing up.

10:06So I'm not going there yet. But I do think that what we've seen from his is something that we thought we were getting when he became the Giants quarterback, which is from a clean pocket. The man is an extremely accurate passer. mind blown oh my god but that's what we're actually seeing right we just when he doesn't have a clean pocket things do go wonkier they go sideways more often you saw that with two picks against the rams when they were bringing a bunch of pressure so it does happen but you know i think that their ability to keep them clean especially in a game like the the raiders aren't bringing a lot of pressure when they blitz they're near the bottom of the league in terms of the amount of pressure they get from the blitz so these are circumstances where daniel jones is set up to succeed.

10:45The good news is, is he can succeed when he's in the right circumstance. Like this is a good thing. You don't, he doesn't need to be Indiana Jones for that. He could just be Daniel Jones for that. You know, I mean, he's not really embracing the Indiana Jones thing. You know, one thing Daniel Jones is not fun. He doesn't, you know, he's just not a lot. He could, he's a little more fun to watch, but he didn't really like the Danny Dimes things. He just seems like a serious, nice young gentleman who's been scarred a little bit by being the quarterback for the New York Giants. I'm going to be honest.

11:16I saw him in a social setting, and he's a little more fun. I think he's just – I think he's maybe perhaps growing up in the NFL in New York has made him more structured around where he – he wasn't like doing anything crazy or not, but he was fun to talk. He was engaging, and he was a good chat. He was a good hang. Nothing crazy, no weird stories, nothing – just like, oh, that's a cool guy. Great. Cool. you know a little more personality times after dark times after dark and the last okay i'm going with a big upset on our show game debut i'm not in la so i'm not part of the show but i do need to make the picks this is not my my favorite pick of the year but i do like it i'm having the broncos win in philadelphia but we don't need that to happen for this purpose but they are four and a half point favorites in Philadelphia.

12:14I love it. No, they're four and a half point dogs, right? Right, right. So yeah, you get four and a half points. That's right. Love it. The way that Eagles are playing right now, they're not a complete team. And when you look for surprise teams, when you look for, oh, who could have a longer playoff run than you expect? I bet your model does it. I do it. You look to line play. Right now, Broncos, they'll have one of the best offensive lines in the entire league. Meanwhile, the Eagles can't get consistent pass rush. They're sending more blitzes than they want to. It's really a one-dimensional type of pass rush.

12:54They're not getting as much heat off the edge. And then you flip it around, and you got my guy, Nick Benito, all sorts of pressure. Jonathan Cooper, all sorts of pressure. They're playing fantastic, and they're going up against an Eagles offensive line that right now, in terms of pass rush win rate, a pass block win rate, in terms of run block win rate, is way worse than average. I'm really stunned to see it. And I think you meet the hoods, and some of the advanced numbers say these teams are even, or maybe the Broncos are a little better. For instance, they're higher in DVOA right now. They're ninth, the Eagles are twelfth.

13:31To me, these are two even teams where they are right now. So four and a half points. I like the Broncos to go in, maybe make a statement and go ahead and win it, but I don't even need them to do that. Just keep it close. I I'm actually with you on the keeping it close. I think I have the Eagles by one point. That's where the model has netted out. So therefore I'm on the same side. The other thing, the, the fun fact on this one is Jonathan Cooper actually helped recruit JK Dobbins. They went to Ohio state together. So Coop, I'm, I'm not cool enough to call him that, but Coop brought in JK, which was a cool kind of a cool fact it kind of shows you what it's like to be on that team a little bit especially now that we've seen jk dobbins and the run game be a source of strength if i were to tell you that the stronger okay not like let's remove the tush push from the equation but the team with the stronger run game for through four games like in terms of yards per game and yards per carry right now guess which team it is it's not the one with saquon barkley like that's a wild thing to Like it almost feels like I'm lying when I'm seeing that, but I'm not, but they're getting a lot of production out of those running backs.

14:35They're getting 10 plus yard plays at a higher clip than the Eagles. So far, you take the tush push out, which is like gold, right? That works 90 % of the time. It works a hundred percent of the time, whatever it is, but like, you know, it works really well. And you're, you're getting a lot of production from them in the run game, which helps to set up their good defense to kind of overcome some of the hurdles that Bo Nix has had with turnovers so far yet this season. yeah Bo Nix is is my concern in this game but yeah the running game in terms of the success rate again I trust the Broncos a little more and I do it but my very unscientific method I feel like the Broncos deserve to be three and two yep and I feel like the Eagles don't deserve to be five and oh they should be four and one so uh that's why it'll come together by the way uh I saw John Gonzalez over here in London oh I didn't know he was over there friend of the show he's just out here watching soccer and um he showed me a leg tattoo that his friend has of the the play design of the tush push on his leg and the man has to shave the hair off his leg so that everyone can see the tush push that the man will remain nameless i don't know if he wants that out there but it is in his amazing sight is it someone that i know no it's not someone that you know okay But it is someone, some moderately public media figure.

15:55Got it. Wow. I'll just leave it at that. All right. You got your third pick. Okay. First off, tattoos are great. Love a tattoo. I have a tattoo. I have two tattoos, in fact. But I don't like when it involves shaving anything. Yes. Like, just on your head. No places that, anyways. So that's my personal thought on tattoos. to at some point, like if he doesn't shave it, it'll just be like the tush push in like a garden. Yeah. Natural grass, I guess. Is this person from Philly? Cause like people from Philly are different breeds. Of course. Yeah. They're all a different breed. Even Colleen, who I love very dearly.

16:34She is a different breed and she's, you know, from Philly. So it's not, it's not Colleen. It's not Colleen. No, it's not. I can, I can confirm it's not Colleen. I work with her every week. Okay. So my last pick, I have some, some consternation over this one, but I think that even though I have the chargers winning, I want to take Washington with the field goal of points. Did I say that right? With three points, right? So Washington plus three, I do have the chargers winning, but it's very close, which means to me, the opportunity, I love good O-line play. And when you have to replace, you have to replace now, Rashawn Slater, Joe Walt, Rashawn Slater hurt before the season.

17:13Joe Alt moves over to the left. Joe Alt's doing great on the left. He's taking single pressure. Like he's handling his business. Now you have him go out. Love a good Austin Declas moment. The kid told me at the East West Shrine Bowl how he likes to eat alligator. He's from Louisiana, but good for him. His me-maw, his grandma, whatever. She made it for him. Like he's a great kid. Doesn't necessarily mean he's going to be able to handle this Washington front, bringing pressure at the third highest rate in the league. That's just a mismatch to me. That That means a closer potential game could come down to a field goal.

17:43Something weird happening. We know Justin Herbert doesn't turn the ball over more often, but with more pressure that could happen. Those are the types of things that I look for. It's so funny that you pick this game, both this game and the Browns. If I'm throwing in some extra picks would be my extra picks. I kind of like the Browns here in London plus three and a half. Who's more? Are there more? Which more fans are there? Not sure yet. London. It's, it's not like Dublin where it takes over the city. It's also still only Thursday, But, you know, it's like having the Super Bowl in New York. So when I get they're going to have some NFL events this weekend, obviously, once we get to the game, we'll see.

18:20I would suspect the Vikings fans will travel better. There were more Vikings fans last week in Dublin than I expected. But I do like the Browns and I do like the Commanders. Man, the Chargers up front are giving up pressure at just an outrageous rate. 48 % last week to the Giants. I mean, the giants are really good up front, but that's, that's a lot. And a lot of it's on the interior too. It's, it's, it's Bradley Bozeman. It's one of their starters who's really struggling. And that's where the commanders are pretty good. You get Jane Daniels back for this game. Commander's defense has been a little up and down, but the offense, whether it's Mariota or Jane Daniels has been really good.

19:01I think they're catching the charges at the right time. I'm thinking about taking the commander straight up either way. I like you there. Okay. Enough preamble. my pick of the year pick of the year you actually well so far okay you actually got to call the 1-900 number okay to get my pick of the year and the other picks i gave you were all free but you gotta you gotta call 1-900-TRIPLE-G uh no don't call that it's it's Seattle at home against oh yeah it's Seattle at home against the Buccaneers I think Seattle might be the best team in the league I think they have the best defense in the league.

19:38They've had the best special teams in the league. Everything is really balanced. They have extra rest. I like that, that they're coming off the Thursday night game. I know they have not been a good home team. The Buccaneers, Cynthia, were so banged up on Wednesday. They held a walkthrough, and Todd Bowles half-joked, yeah, we had more, you know, players that weren't going to practice than were available to practice. So we just held a walkthrough. I mean, there's not going to be Mike Evans in this game. We don't expect Bucky Irving. We know that the right side of the offensive line was a mess last week.

20:17They might be missing two cornerbacks in terms of Jamel Dean is hurt. And then his backup, Benjamin Morrison is hurt. And even if they were healthy, I like the Seahawks in this game because I like the Seahawks right now. And so to me, this is actually a mismatch. I would go up to six, seven points on this and like the Seahawks in this specific week, the bucks will get better. They'll get healthier. They won't have the rest disadvantage eventually, but I really love Seattle. And I know my picks haven't been good this year, but if I, if I'm going to know anything this year, this pick is going to be right.

20:53Cynthia, I better get this right. Well, the 900 number is riding on it so no I'm I'm I'm actually with you on this one you know I it's very tricky with injury reports coming out when you don't know who's playing to pick like to me I feel very confident that Seattle win I don't know where the line will land like I think by the time the game starts I don't know what it will be so the if it's what three and a half now what is it three and a half four and a half something like that it's three it's three okay as as I would imagine and so perhaps that's smarter now yeah if it gets it was less before to be fair julian love and devin witherspoon have been out of practice for the seahawks so they they have some injury issues but the thing i love about their defense is they have players at every level they're really cohesive every week you kind of know what you're getting they're going to make you work to get touchdowns can the Buccaneers with that group go on these long touchdown drives without Baker making a big mistake and without a running game that hasn't really been good all season long?

21:58I don't think they can. Well, and also they're rushing the passer with just four. So if you can drop guys back in the coverage, that will help soften the blow should they be missing a Devin Witherspoon or whatnot? Because if you don't have to bring five or more pass rushers, you can drop more into coverage. So that will help with, you know, of the Emeka Egbukas of the world. What are you smiling about? What are you laughing at when we fork it? No, I'm just thinking about how the 900 number depends on it. Yeah. Yes. And look, we're not just here, Cynthia, for the picks, because the picks haven't been perfect this year.

22:37We're here for the information. Yep. And we're here for the hang. Like Danny Dimes after dark. Great hang. Like, we're a good time together. Even when we're in different countries, different continents, this, the, the sun of Cynthia Freeland like shines through the camera. So I appreciate you. I appreciate you. And you know, it's, it's kind of amazing. I'm so glad you're coming to us from the future. That actually probably makes your picks better. Just saying, you know, cause you already know what's going to happen. That's true. The line has moved actually, uh, here, but not back there. We aren't done this week, by the way, Cynthia, uh, check her out.

23:14game day view it's on on friday but there's there's re-airs throughout the weekend including on sunday morning with patrick clabon she's got her youtube show numbers game she's also doing a show with the 33rd team that's on her youtube channel with logan ryan check that all out and guess what nfl daily's not done no while we're overseas we gotta justify the trip If they're going to send me over here, we're going to do some extra shows. So we're going to drop an extra show in the feed with one of my favorite football voices in the entire world. It's Ollie Connelly, and he is just so sharp. And we're going to go through some of the biggest surprises of the 2025 season.

23:57So that will drop in the feed on Saturday. Until then, we will see you. And the next time I see you, Cynthia, we'll be back in Los Angeles next week. I cannot wait. Safe travels. See you then.

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