Week 6 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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0:44Cynthia Frelund:Learn more at AmericanExpress.com slash Explore-Gold. Terms and points cap apply. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we are back on the winning track and back in the Chris Wesseling podcast studio. I am Greg Rosenthal, and I'm here for the first time in three weeks in person. Nice of you to be back. With the model, the computer model, Cynthia Freeland. Good to see you again. Not to be confused with a real model. No, get a woman who can do it all. If you're watching on YouTube, we're looking a little harsh. Oh, stop. Oh, yeah, you're good. Look amazing. And, yes, while you're there, if you're watching, like, subscribe.

1:27Yeah, do it. We really love growing the show. So I said we're back on the winning track. I went and checked our picks from a week ago. Unfortunately, we couldn't both go undefeated because we went against each other. And I did get that Patriots game right over the Bills. They not only covered, but they won. And same thing with my Broncos pick. Unfortunately, my pick of the year. I don't know if you remember that. I do remember that. Did not pan out.

1:53Cynthia Frelund:I do remember that one. Respect the Buccaneers. No matter how injured they were. Put some respect on their name. There were more Seahawks injuries than I expected, but that's excuses. So I go two and one. You got that Bills one wrong. But you nailed Washington and Indianapolis, who both covered by about a million compared to where the line was. So we're on the winning track here. That's right. After a tough start to the season. I'm going to give you the first pick. And if you're new to the show, we make three picks every single week and we do it against the spread. And I might have some extras for you today.

2:23Cynthia Frelund:OK, so where are you seeing this New England and New Orleans line? I think it's at three and a half. OK, I'm good with that. I'm good with the Patriots to win by more than three and a half points in New Orleans. Like that. You have more confidence maybe than I do as a Patriots fan. Tell me why. Well, for a couple of reasons. Number one, when I went back and rewatched the Saints game to get five turnovers in a row, that's something that hasn't happened since like five interceptions from Ryan Fitzpatrick or research packets. I mean, that's like that's some some pretty crazy stuff. And that's what it took against the Giants.

2:57Cynthia Frelund:Right. And now you have Drake May dealing the situation where he's great when he's not under pressure. The Saints, though, they have a decent number of sacks. They're not great under. They're not causing a lot of pressure. So my sense here is that I think the Patriots, there's no letdown. I don't think it's like a hangover from the Bills win. I'm not so worried about that. For me, this one's maybe let's see the run game improve for the Pats in this one. I think it's build on that success. Plus, the defense is like significantly healthier. Christian Gonzalez, like that turns out it helps to have your good players.

3:28As we tape this, he popped up on Thursday's injury report as limited with hamstring injury, which is concerning because he wasn't on the injury report Wednesday. So something happened during practice. We'll have to find out. That would be unfortunate for you.

3:43Cynthia Frelund:Well, I still would be okay with. Okay. I'm still okay with it. I'm just saying I don't think they're going to have a hangover from that. Christian Barmore's crushing. He's playing really well. Milton Williams is playing well. And the Saints offensive line is not protected well. I do think it's a mismatch when the Patriots offense has the ball in terms of the coaching. Josh McDaniels has done a really good job scheming open receivers and making it easier on Drake May. So Drake May gets the easy stuff. And then as you saw in the Bills game, when they got that cover for me and the win, I stayed up till 4.30 in the morning in London watching that.

4:16Not to watch that. I'm not that big of a fan. But we taped our recap show, which we have to wait for the games to end. So we're basically on Pacific time. And by the time I got back to my hotel, it was about 3.30 and I had to pack for the next morning. So I'm packing, watching that game.

4:32Cynthia Frelund:and uh might as well yeah that's i i mean wow that's some that's some i feel like you should be like i'm a huge fan i'm back in no wait a minute though i will have to not pick like a like one little boat pick and again this is ticky tacky because the win's a win and we'll take it but like those three turnovers like two were lucky yeah i mean sometimes it's better be lucky than good but like oh yardage wise just overall eyeball test wise that was a game that it felt like the Bills were the better team. I still like the fact that the Patriots are getting so many points, but it felt like the Bills should have won that game and would have won that game seven or eight times out of 10.

5:10But that's sports, especially the NFL. No, right, exactly. I've really had a journey with my picks this week because of injuries, things keep changing around. And I can't believe in the end, my favorite pick of the week, at least the one that I know I want to take, is Atlanta plus four and a half at home against the Buffalo Bills. I'm starting to fade the Bills in general. I think because of their schedule.

5:37Cynthia Frelund:You think like you have a big head from that late night watch? I always have a big head and it's just growing even bigger. Although my record this year in this show, it should not be the way. Okay. I don't think these two teams are that different, Cynthia. So I love a home underdog. You don't think the teams are that different? You think Michael Penix is in any of much of the same stratosphere as Josh Allen? I think based on the opponents that they've played and what they've put out on the field in 2025, the Bills are a better team than the Falcons. The Falcons lost to the Panthers. Okay, I'm glad you brought that up.

6:12And that's doing a lot to change their numbers. They've been impressive the other three games. It was a bad game. And even that game, the Panthers didn't get over 300 yards. Like the yardage was pretty even. Penix had a total horror show. And that's certainly possible. That does happen. But if you think about the other three games, they actually outgained the Bucs significantly and lost at the buzzer. That's not a horrible loss. They outplayed a good commanders team, which granted had Mariota, but it was really the offensive performance by the Falcons. That was the last game that we saw. And they dominated the Vikings and J.J.

6:44McCarthy in that primetime game. I just mean, their defense, I think, is solid. And their offense...

6:51Cynthia Frelund:But even a solid defense, it's still Josh Allen. And so that's why I think the Bills will likely win this game. But when I see a home dog, four and a half points in a game that kind of like the Broncos last week, although they were on the road, kind of like the Patriots. I could see them winning this game every Bills season. And you know this because I know you're a big Bills head. You know, you watch some teams closer than others and the Bills are one of them. Yes. If you pay me money, I will watch your team. You have worked for the Buffalo Bills. Yes. So, of course. You know, what's one underrated thing?

7:21Cynthia Frelund:My love can be bought, Greg. I mean, Kyle knows it, you know? No, of course not. Of course not. Actually, if he's listening, I would like a few things. And I've been doing a lot of chores lately. Okay. So there we go. No, just kidding. I don't need anything. They go through stretches in every season where they just hit some lulls. And again, I just think that the Falcons offense, Bajon, Drake London, they figured out some things in that game before the bye against Washington. I really like what they look like. I've actually thought Penix has looked good except for that one bad game. And so I trust in their offense.

7:54I really don't trust in the Bills' defense. I think it's going to be a fun, high-scoring game on Monday night. And it'll just be close and come down to the end. So I'll take four and a half points. All right, what's your second pick?

8:03Cynthia Frelund:Okay, so second pick. There's a few that I, like, really hate but I love. This one actually, you know what? I feel really strong about Indianapolis to win. Okay. Let's go. Listen, the Colts, they did me well last week. Let's go back to that Colts well. They're at home yet again. This time they host Arizona. Now at the time of this recording, if Kyler Murray, I don't think he practiced this morning, right? So I don't, at this point, I don't think he's going to play, but I don't, does that affect it that much? I kind of, not really, but I just mean that the lions are the line, not the lion, the line could move, but I still think the Colts cover unless some crazy line happens.

8:41Cynthia Frelund:I still think the Colts are in a good spot. It almost looks like the line as of taping has already adjusted. because it's up to seven. Okay. So it has moved up. Kyler Murray is out of practice on Thursday. If it moves to like 10, then I might get a little bit, I might back down from my position. But I like... We'll send a tweet out correcting. Yeah. But I think unless it gets to double digits, I still think the Colts... The Colts are just, they're on a heater. The Cardinals, the thing that the Cardinals have been relatively decent at stopping the run, they don't really have an answer for Jonathan Taylor's types of run.

9:17Cynthia Frelund:So to me, this is a huge mismatch in favor of the Ponies. I look at their profile, and I'm sure your numbers say the same thing, and you see a team that's a top two or three team in the NFL, that they have been a wagon offensively and good enough with your guy Lou defensively where they can come up with these game plans that create turnovers that are different every week. You're not sure what you're going to get. It's not a great defense, but it's a good enough defense to support that offense. I've been back and forth all week. I actually had Arizona plus seven written down as my, one of my maybe extras.

9:52It wasn't going to be one of my picks. I'm now crossing that off. I haven't really actually felt good about that. That sounds like really bad luck. I'm basing it too much on. Vibes. That, that they know after last week that it almost feels like their season's on the line this week. If they fall to two and four, they have a tough schedule coming up too. They are like, you know how they used to say on Twitter, like you never want to be the main character on Twitter for the, the day. No. The Cardinals have been the main character in the NFL this week. And I just feel like if they got anything in them to show up and play their best game like this, this would be it.

10:29They need it.

10:30Cynthia Frelund:They need it. Not that they're going to try harder. I'm not saying that. But I do think sometimes when teams are desperate, you get a good performance. When your coach has to pay a fine for an interaction with the player, like things are bad. When you lose three games in a row on walk-off field goals, things are bad. It's tough. So as much as they might want it or need it, the Titans lost that game. The Titans won that game. I don't think that the Cardinals lost it. The Titans didn't sit there and do something extraordinary. Right. You're saying the Cardinals lost it. Yes, sorry. The Cardinals lost it.

11:03Point being is that was weird.

11:06Cynthia Frelund:The end of that game was weird. This whole season for the Cardinals, they have not looked right to me. Even though they got two wins early, but schedule has helped. I'm with you. I'm going to cross that one off. I would cross that. I mean, especially with the Kyler Murray being... And I'm glad you brought up the fine of Jonathan Gannon because I keep seeing this argument about, oh, now, you know, like, Di Mercado made one of the worst plays in the world, and now the coach is the one who's getting fine, and the coach, like, whatever happened to, like, accountability, and it's like, how dumb can you be?

11:42He could be in the process of losing that locker room. Like you have a large group of grown men who you need to sacrifice a lot to play as hard as they possibly can and believe in everything you're saying. And the organization, I think, is doing a good job of finding Gannon. And Gannon has done a good job apologizing about it because that is one clear way to have a lot of your players, the most important part of your franchise, tune you out because he crossed a line. also just on a human level yes like there are ways to punish someone for making a bad play

12:22Cynthia Frelund:that are really well like adopted by the general consensus of a team right there are things that you know don't play them for a quarter we see that all the time don't don't do don't like confront like it's weird like it's just it was right because he's not he's not allowed to hit back in that situation no you're not allowed no one's allowed i only laughed because i was thinking of whatever happened to jordan addison in minnesota somebody tell me what that is i think there was some buzz like there was a lot of they just didn't know where he was last week was mischief they didn't know where he was but he's too good and you can just imagine kevin o 'connell being like i can't believe i have to go the first quarter without kevin o 'connell without jordan asked if I got to do something.

13:05And oh, by the way, he helped win the game. Okay. My second pick. I'm spinning here because as we go to tape, Mac Jones is reportedly like really limited at that 49ers practice. And if they go to Adrian Martinez, I just don't want this thing to be too out of date because I was thinking pretty hard of the 49ers covering the three in Tampa because Kyle Shanahan has only Todd Bowles in the last three years. It's been incredibly one-sided in terms of the yardage they won three straight they won 35 to 7 a couple years ago and the you know what it's just too much if Mac Jones is seriously compromised I don't know if it's the lying liar who lies playing games on the injury report too and saying like I don't mess with the portion that the media can see Mac Jones looks too limited I don't want to be going with a third quarterback in Ricky so I'm not going to do that one I have settled on Cleveland plus five and a half as one of my picks Okay.

14:04Pittsburgh's their opponent. Pittsburgh is hosting them. It's a bit of a tough spot for the Browns who are coming over from London, whereas the Steelers who are coming from Dublin had the week off. So they have extra rest. Don't love that. And they're getting healthier. Jalen Warren, Joey Porter Jr. returning Alex Heisman. Alex Heisman. I just think the Browns defense is legit good. And the Steelers offense, I don't trust them just based on that performance. And five and a half points is enough for me. One of my big takeaways from watching that game live, I do think Dylan Gabriel is going to give this team a better chance to win.

14:43I do think they've found something in Quinjot Junkins. Great running back. They are healthier on the offensive line, actually, than they've been. Jack Conklin is back. The interior is basically there. That was a pretty functional looking mistake free offense by the Browns. And all I need is for their defense to play well enough for them to lose 14 to 10 or 17 to 14, or maybe even get an upset when I'm not buying this Pittsburgh offensive resurgence. I think it's a mismatch when the Steelers have the ball in favor of the Browns defense. Let's go Browns covering five and a half in a place that they haven't won in the regular season for 21 years.

15:21You know what I'm... What an outrageous stat. But they did win in the playoffs. You know what I'm rooting for?

15:25Cynthia Frelund:I'm rooting for Dylan Gabriel to throw two touchdown passes because then he becomes the first Browns quarterback to have done that in the first two starts. Okay, let's go. So like, I want to see it happen. Make some history, brother. People were like almost making fun of how limited they looked and how they like were coaching around. I was like, no. The Vikings were getting quick pressure every other play, and he was making the right decisions. And this is a young team. I just think 5.5 is too much. This season right now has not had a lot of dominant teams, not a lot of predictability. And so if you're giving me 4.5, 5.5 in a game where I could see either team winning, that's what I'm going with right now.

16:00So I'm going Browns plus 5.5. Your last pick, Cynthia.

16:03Cynthia Frelund:Okay, well, here's my question first. Do you think the Ravens are on sale? Because right now, Ravens at 1 and 4. Do you think the Bashadis could be selling the team? No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Like their futures, the market for their future to win the division, is it on sale? It is crazy that they were favored to win the division. They were Super Bowl favorites at one point. But this week, they're still favorites to win the division. Not anymore. But that's because everyone saw that stat, and then they started betting it. But I think they're on sale. I think their future, the market is on sale.

16:36So what does that mean?

16:37Cynthia Frelund:It means that if you buy them low, you could get a good return on your investment. I could see that in terms of a long-term pick. I could not see that in terms of this week's game against the Rams. I'm not talking about this week. Okay, you're talking. I like that. The future. So you could actually hear me out. If you believe the Rams will beat the Ravens, which I think we both do. Yes, and cover. Maybe I should take that. Okay, well, you still have a pick left, so you could do that. But if you believe that, then the Ravens' future odds of winning the division or making it to the playoffs, that becomes an even deeper discount.

17:12Right. Wait till next.

17:13Cynthia Frelund:Go buy it when it's slow. Yes. I don't know. I just was thinking about that earlier. I wanted to get your thoughts on it. I like that. And I don't think that's crazy. And I think this is the right form to be doing that. Get you a show that can do both. You know, pick the games this week. That's right. Pick a little long term. Wait for them to lose to the Rams. Then take some Ravens to win the division. Ravens to win the AFC when they're at one and five. because if you look at that schedule coming up. It's on sale. It's like, you know, like Black Friday deal. Right. Prime day, whatever, you know.

17:44But it's like buying designer stuff on sale. Yeah. I mean, this was like.

17:48Cynthia Frelund:Exactly. The highest of markups a long time ago. I'm just saying. I'm with you. All right. All right, your third pick. My third pick now that I have thoroughly talked for two. I like, this is going to be a crazy one, but I think Miami took a plus four. Yeah, that's one of my ones. What? I wrote down as my extras. And now that I'm crossing off games because of injuries that I don't like anymore, that could have been my third. But I'll just, instead of going together on it, I think we'll be separate. But I totally agree. That's probably my fourth favorite or fifth favorite this week. I just think the Chargers O-line problems and plus Omari and Hampton, plus, right, I saw like maybe Trey Pipkins and maybe Mekhi Becton.