Week 7 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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2:06Get yours now at topgolf.com slash fun pass. welcome to nfl daily where we're going streaking i'm here in the chris wessling podcast studio with my friend cynthia freeland do you streak in college of course not i'm talking about a winning streak that me and you are on the quad no i definitely was not a person that i didn't really know anyone was that really a thing i don't think so well boston college didn't

2:36Cynthia Frelund:have like sororities or fraternities. So I think that's like a, like a frat situation. Not like a, I might surprise you with this, but I was in a fraternity at Tulane University, uh, ATO. Okay. What's the like acronym for that? Like what is it? Alpha Tau Omega. And, um, like what's the like, you know, SAE is same bleep everywhere. It's a, it's a great embarrassment to me. And yet, um, we had a lot of fun and like, it wasn't, it wasn't like fraternities everywhere else where like, I didn't live in the house. I didn't ever pay any dues. It was just, you went out to a bar. And you had fun. It was New Orleans.

3:07Okay. When I said we're going streaking, I'm mentioning how the sun is shining brighter on us in Los Angeles. The food is tasting better because me and you between us have had two straight winning weeks. So if you add it all up, that's four straight winning weeks between the two of us. And yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you can see our season total. We're still under 500, but we're getting close. And the reality is we're on the right track right now, another two in one week. And if I just stuck with my Seahawks, I was worried about them last week. They were my they would have been my third game I got right.

3:42But I got Atlanta and the Rams right. You got Miami and New England right last week. Where are you going first this week? Three games every week against the spread.

3:54Cynthia Frelund:So I'm doing this more for the comedic effect than anything, because I know that there is a team that has really like you've been chasing this team all season long and they have done you dirty. and my model finally picked them to win. So I know we did one of those losses has been this stupid team. However, I think that the Jets, I think that they win straight up. Wow. Which means that the Jets are, let's see, the, what's the? One point favorite. Thank you. I didn't know if it was one or one and a half. It doesn't really matter. Oh no, they're one and a half point underdogs. Sorry about that. I think they started as favorites.

4:29Right. People bet it the other way. We're taping this. They are one and a half point underdogs to the Carolina Panthers at three and three.

4:36Cynthia Frelund:Okay. So for whatever, whatever side of it says the Jets win, I'll take whatever side of this. So even if they lost by one, you would be good in this scenario. That's right. I stopped chasing them two weeks ago. I finally got off that narcotic. It's felt great. Although they did cover last week against the Broncos. That game was hard to watch. It was a hard watch. Are you, you were in person. You got to London on Friday evening. and then were gone Monday morning. That is a quick turnaround. And the Jets, while you were there, they left Europe with less passing yards than when they arrived. That's not a good sign.

5:18Cynthia Frelund:On the season. Okay, so give me the Jets case, the real football case. Two things really stand out in this matchup against the Panthers. The Panthers, who have not brought a lot of pressure all season. Now I watched a breaking point from the sideline there. Those teammates were not happy from the jets. Garrett Wilson. Like, so now we see something where, I mean, Justin Fields was holding onto the ball for far too long. He shouldn't have been sacked nine times. That's a ridiculous number. So they're going to have to change some things. It is time. It is hard to lose all of your games in a season.

5:53Cynthia Frelund:This is a good opportunity to leverage Brees Hall's effectiveness in the run game. He is tied for the second most explosive runs with 14 in the NFL. That's a huge deal. On the other side, Jermaine Johnson being back, That is a huge upgrade. Michael Clemens and Jermaine Johnson. It's two ends of the spectrum. And I don't mean to be mean to him because he is. I'm sure he's a very nice man. I don't know him. He's a professional. He's made a lot of money doing what he does. And he Michael Clemens. Correct. Yes. But he can't set the edge. Big upgrade for Jermaine Johnson. Yeah. He looked good last week.

6:21Cynthia Frelund:Jermaine Johnson is a big deal. And in this one where I don't think there's sure. Tedderola McMillan is great, but this is not the same. You know, the Broncos defense is really scary. Like you've got to, I mean, that's a, that's a hard defense to navigate no matter who you are. I just think that the, the balance point of this will be better. I'm hoping you're right. I'm staying far away from that one. I just, I kind of just think it's funny more than anything else. Like I'm here for the comedy as well. I don't have a hot take on that game at all. I actually really like four games this week. So it's very difficult because we have to narrow it down by, by one.

6:57So I might go through all four and you can help me maybe cancel one out. But I'm going to start with Arizona plus six and a half hosting the Green Bay Packers.

7:09Cynthia Frelund:Who do you think the quarterback is? I think it's probably Jacoby Brissett. But Kyler Murray was at practice on Wednesday. Generally, if a starting quarterback is limited at practice on a Wednesday, he will start that game. I'm not worried about who the quarterback is. I might prefer Jacoby Brissett. Their offense looked good last week, more under center runs. I have a greater output for Arizona with Jacoby Brissett than Kyler Murray as well. Just so we're there. Okay, so they have a bye next week. And just reading between the lines with the national insiders, it sounded like they would prefer to rest Kyler through the bye to make sure that he stays 100%.

7:52We will see. But the number here is too big for me either way. Okay. Nobody's beaten the Cardinals by more than four so far. And they've played some good teams. They played Seattle. They played San Francisco. They played Indianapolis. They actually have a plus scoring differential on the season. They are the example of what the NFL is all about this year, which is one score games and a big fat middle. They are more like a three and three team. Okay. Even their wins this year are by one score. So they played in six straight one-score games. Meanwhile, the Packers, I think they should be one of the best teams in the league, but they haven't really performed like it on a consistent basis.

8:36They're like seventh or eighth in DVOA overall. I just think this Cardinals team needs this game so bad, and I do sometimes go with desperation. They're at home. They're before the bye. It's a big moment for them. They have their offensive line in place for the first time really since the very beginning of last year. I think their defense is well coached. And show me the Green Bay game other than against Cincinnati. They didn't even really do it against Cincinnati where they're like running away. They did against the Lions. Yeah, that's a long time ago. Yeah. That's week one. So on the road, I do not trust them to go and get this done.

9:13I just think it's going to be a close game at the end.

9:14Cynthia Frelund:Yeah. No, I'm with you. Okay. I have the same. I have the same. I do have the Packers winning. the Packers, I have them winning, but I have Arizona keeping it close. I thought for our show game debut of taking the Cardinals straight up. I just, I just can imagine it, that they have a win that turns their season around, but I don't need the win here. It's like why I talked about last week when I went with Atlanta. I was like, I don't need the win. Love it. They just need to cover. And same thing with the Patriots a couple of weeks ago. Maybe they will win. So if you're into that, whatever, whatever the number is, If you're into that sort of thing.

9:48I wouldn't tell you not to do that. So Arizona plus six and a half is my first one. All right, you're up next.

9:54Cynthia Frelund:Okay. What's the number you're seeing for Jacksonville and the Rams? The Rams are favorite. I see three. Yes. Okay. I think Jacksonville wins. Wow. Straight up. Straight up. Now tell me. Interesting. Are you really going to love NFL Daily forever? You know? Yep. Oh, oh, oh. Okay. Yeah. We're old. We're really old. If anyone gets that, congratulations. People are going to get it. It's a popular song. It's a great song. A couple of things. One, I don't think Puka Nakua will play. And I don't think that's accurately priced into this line. So without Puka Nakua, the math becomes quite different. Matthew Stafford's passer rating when targeting Devontae Adams or everyone else, just a lot worse.

10:34Cynthia Frelund:Puka is so important to this offense. And not to say that Sean McVay can't figure some things out, but the Jags defense is pretty good. Now they're without Devin Lloyd, who is the league's interception leader, but they've got a number of other pieces that are also pretty good, even though they're not getting a ton of pressure up front. The things that they're doing on the back end are helping them out significantly. So, and the Jags, by the way, like London's their second home. They have, this is, we talk about it all the time. They played 14 games abroad or something. This will be their 14th game.

11:03Cynthia Frelund:They're seven and six all in London. I think that they have a better, like, like the, the, the day they get the, the, the schedule is more set. The Rams don't get there till Saturday. Do you know how hard that is? I mean, I just did that. And I'm like, I'm a regular old analyst. I'm not trying to run at people and hit things and be violent. I was just trying to get to London, you know? Right. Knowing that organization, there's certainly one that is into sleep science and everything like that. And I think there's a lot of disagreeing theories of what's better for your body clock. They determined that staying in Baltimore all week, they're not doing any media over there.

11:46They're arriving, like you said, Saturday morning, and then will play 24 hours later. That is the latest any team's ever shown up. Plenty of teams have showed up on Friday. The Chiefs, I think, traditionally show up late in the week. Did you feel weird getting off the plane? Absolutely. It takes, it's a problem. If anything, and maybe this is what the science is saying, I feel better for the first 24 to 36 hours, maybe. It's almost still like a rush, and then it sets in. That is difficult. I am with you. I had the Jaguars covering the spread. It's not one of the games I considered. I have the Rams winning, so I don't feel strong about that game.

12:24I do wonder if this Jaguars offensive line is not as good as we thought. It's not. They played some good opponents for them, like easy opponents early, and then last week they did not look good. They were without their center. I think that could be a big deal if he doesn't return, but we don't know that for sure.

12:39Cynthia Frelund:I think both things are true. Yeah. I don't think it's as good as the, I think it was like three sacks through four weeks, something crazy. It's either four sacks or three weeks or three sacks or fours. Either way. And they had two games where they like didn't give up a pressure. That's right. Including against the fact. I think that's, that was a little fugazi, but I also think that it's a little bit false to say that they're as bad as they looked against the Seahawks as well. So I think both things are true. I mostly think that the ability for Travis ETN to get some chunk yardage plays. I know he was held to just what, 27 yards last week against the house.

13:09Cynthia Frelund:That's very different defense. They don't have the back end pieces on the Rams that are quite as great at helping out, especially in that kind of run situation coverage than they do on compared to the Seahawks. So the Rams are there. They're just a different. There's a different team. You attack them on the ground. I think the Jaguars have an advantage there that the Rams, one of the best rushing teams in the league, the Jaguars, maybe a little better set up to to stop the run. That's close to a coin flip game for me. I am glad that we're sending all our UK London residents a better game this week because the two games overseas so far, really all three.

13:46If you if you go back to Dublin, have been very close down to the wire and they've all had moments. But that I do feel a little bad about sending Broncos jets over there. And so I think we're wrapping up the London portion with the best game yet. Two good four and two teams. OK, like I said, I have four picks. You're going to help me cancel one out. The first one was Arizona. The second one is such a funky line. Tampa Bay plus five and a half that I feel like Vegas is trying to get everyone to go with the bucks. Or maybe they don't think like that, like Patrick says. And maybe that's just what the numbers say.

14:22And I know if you peek beneath the hood, the bucks haven't been as good really as the record would indicate, but you know, they are like number one in a lot of people's power rankings. They're number, literally the number one seed in the NFC right now, I think for a reason, and that's that they're getting better. They're actually getting healthier. And the reason I love this and man, I have a hard time even picking the lines to win straight up, although I did, but I have it as a one point game is the lions injuries. It's a disaster week for them. They don't have their two starting cornerbacks and they have to go up against Baker Mayfield and they don't have Brian branch, who's suspended.

15:01And oh, by the way, Kirby Joseph doesn't look 100%. He's not really at practice. Taylor Decker, the left tackle, might return to practice. He's up in the air as we're taping. Put it all up there and like, man, you're giving me five and a half points for one of the best teams in the NFL. I love that one. I'm taking the Bucs.

15:18Cynthia Frelund:Yeah, I have a three-point win for Detroit, so I'm on the same side as you about that one. I did not, I think that it was the combination of, I mean, Emeka Agbuka is not playing for sure, that Mike Evans might. I think he's back. I'm going to assume Evans is priced, is into my pricing as back, just on the optimism that Todd Bowles is saying. Sure, but is he 100 % like back or back? Right, because Chris Godwin was back a couple weeks ago. Chris Godwin was back, but was he back? You know, like, so I guess. And he's not back anymore, by the way. No, he's un-back. He went back to being un-back, whatever.

15:51They're a thin net receiver, but they've shown that they can overcome that.

15:55Cynthia Frelund:Of course, but it helps against the, that helps the Lions, because, I mean, look, what we saw from the Lions last week against Patrick Mahomes was getting crushed when Patrick used an intermediate pass. Just death by a thousand paper cuts, right? Like, or intermediate passes are the paper cuts here. But I don't think that, see, the difference is, is Baker's ability to have, you know, there's no Xavier Worthy plus Hollywood Brown plus Travis Kelsey plus. They just don't have that depth. Can I give you a Tez Johnson? How about a little? You can try to sell me on a Tez Johnson. How about like an aged 19 or maybe 2000?

16:32Cynthia Frelund:K.Dotten. 19 version of Sterling Shepard. Love it. Kind of like popping up. I hear you. That's why I took the Lions ultimately to win. And I trust their organization. They haven't lost two straight for three years now. They can lose. Trust me. I've seen it. You don't think that matters. But I do think like great teams, great organizations, it's tough for them to lose twice in a row. I think they have a big time home field advantage. And that's why I think it's a coin flip. I'd absolutely pick the Bucs if it was in Tampa. But since it's in Detroit, I'm taking the Lions to win. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs win straight up.

17:03Doesn't matter. Five and a half points is a lot. It's a lot. It's like they're begging us, which I'm a little wary. It does feel like a tasty little snack. I'm a little wary of it. Come here, little kid.

17:13Cynthia Frelund:Here's some candy for you. That does kind of feel like that. But I feel good about it. So Bucs plus five and a half. Let's go with your third pick. I'm going for some symmetry here. I'm going to end this one with the Denver Broncos. And I think that they win by more than seven. I think that as good as we've seen the Giants and I, I, I know it's been fun. I know they just beat the Eagles. I did watch it. I saw it. I saw everything and I saw what happened against the jets, but ahead of the game, all of those Denver players who had been a week in on the East coast in Philadelphia, ahead of going to, they were just over it.

17:43Cynthia Frelund:And not to say that that's like, you can't factor that into the math, but what I'm looking at here is JK Dobbins, another guy who's great at explosive runs. That is where the Giants can get got. I also watch these screen passes. And what did the Denver Broncos do? Screen, screen. You want to do it? Yeah, let's write a screen. The linebackers stink for the Giants. Screen, screen, screen. And you know who gives up a ton of yards to screen passes? The Giants. So as good as their front is, I think that the O-line plus the screen pass, plus the run game for the Broncos, and plus how nasty that Denver defense is there, that defense is firing on all cylinders.

18:19Cynthia Frelund:Nick Benito is, I'm not suggesting that the front isn't great for the Giants, but the back end and the linebacker level, nowhere near the caliber of what the Broncos are bringing. Love it. What does your computer model do with extra rest? Does it matter at all? Depends. It depends on the extra rest, right? So the Giants in this Thursday have four extra days rest and neighbors back. No. Oh, okay. Now that would be a difference. He's going to be out the rest of the year. That's priced into all their numbers. They get the extra rest and Denver's coming all the way back from London. Sometimes, you know, I don't know if you can factor that in, but that does seem like a lot.

19:01I saw something for what it's worth. They're the, they're the first team like in mountain or Pacific to ever come back from London and play the next week. It's usually up to the teams. If they want to take the buy the next week after going overseas, they do not have to buy this week.

19:19Cynthia Frelund:Yeah, it's also alumni weekend. And if you're into like this sort of thing, they're honoring Demarius Thomas in this one. So, and you know, he's like the heartbeat of, I'm just saying, so if you're looking at these external factors, it's alumni weekend. DT's getting his, whatever the version of the Broncos Ring of Honor is, whatever that is. So I've kept this in my pocket, but I disagree. I strongly disagree, but I'm happy that you took the Broncos minus seven. Cause what it did for me is it made up my mind, which pick of mine I'm going to eliminate because giants plus seven was one of my four picks.