Week 8 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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2:13Welcome to NFL Daily, where we've got a lot of irrational anger about Waymos. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here in the Chris Wesseling podcast studio, and I'm with Cynthia Freeland, who is just ranting about the Waymos taking over Los Angeles. I don't know why, but I have this irrational anger towards them. Like, should I have some sort of tomato or a light fruit? I'm not trying to destroy anything, but I want to throw it at them. I don't know why. I just I can't. I don't know. It just makes me angry. I believe I live in the world epicenter of Waymos, which is Santa Monica, because they just dropped them on it about a year ago.

2:48I wanted to hate them. I got to say, it seems like it's been pretty safe, but I do get a feeling every once in a while I'm at a four-way stop with multiple other Waymos, and I just feel like I'm outnumbered. This doesn't seem right, and it's going to be a problem. If you had a tomato, you would throw it up. They're taking over. We're here to make picks. every Thursday. And yes, if you're listening to this a little bit early, we heard from you that people just want the show. We're not even going to hold it anymore. We're just putting it out right away before Thursday Night Football. Or if you're listening to it Friday, great.

3:21We make picks against the spread every week. And we were already 1-0 on Thursday Night Football. I mean, obviously it hasn't happened yet, but we know it's going to be perfect. It doesn't matter. Cynthia had a bad week last week. That's okay. It's unfortunate. Happens. I kept my winning streak going at 2-1 for the third straight week. And it could have been 3-0, but I didn't want to go against you with Denver and the Giants. You texted about it later. You apologized. You shouldn't have apologized. It's still kind of amazing that they won like that. I've made so many bad picks, but here we go. We've got to keep my winning streak going.

3:55We're going to get you back on the winning track. I'm going to have you start. Okay, I'm going to just keep it really easy Monday Night Football. I think that the Chiefs win by a big margin. So I'm seeing 10.5. Is that what you're seeing as well? It's gone up. I just looked right before we were taping, and it's gone up all the way to 12, 12 and a half. I don't care. Yeah, I wouldn't either. It's on my list as a maybe. It was probably fourth on my list. I liked four this week. That was one of the four. So I think I'm going to leave it off, even though I'm on the same side as you, just for a little variety.

4:25Yeah, a little variety. No, I just think we just heard probably that number was driven by the fact that 100 % for sure now we don't have Jaden Daniels making the start. Not to say anything against Marcus Mariota, but who else is playing? Right. Debo and Terry McLaurin, I think as we're taping, are trending towards back. Maybe. But you know what? It's not the offense for the commanders. Because one minute Mariota has started games this year. He's played well. Obviously, he's not Daniels. I'm not angry about him. Their offense has been OK. It's the defense going up against this Chiefs offense. What have you seen out of either side of the ball there?

4:59Patrick Wilhelms is just throwing it to anyone at will. There's no funneled through any Travis Kelsey business going on. And there's no just one target. Sure, sometimes guys like Hollywood Brown will have two touchdowns in a game. But it's not because he's really making a concerted effort to give a lot of the target share to Hollywood Brown. It's just that that's the busted coverage that happens to be what scores for the team. So I'm just seeing a lot of variety. And that is super hard to defend. We saw that kind of exact same thing against the Cowboys. And look what happened there. So ultimately, I mean, now, in fairness, that game, we didn't know we would be without Debo Samuel.

5:33So whatever. They still gave up 44 points. I'm just saying the defense, the whole thing was a mess. But they certainly gave maybe one extra possession, so maybe it should have been like 37. They're slow, they're old, and I think they can figure it out, Washington, over the course of the season. But the Chiefs are at a point now with me that it's going to be tough. I almost blind take them every week because I just think they're right now. People haven't caught up to the fact that they're the best team in football, in my opinion, and the best offense in football right now. So that matchup and they're basically coming off a bye.

6:14Their defense only played 30 total snaps. And if you look at like the defensive linemen and the starters, they took a lot of them out. They played about 20 snaps. That's like having a bye week. I mean, it's actually maybe a little better than having a bye week because they went through the whole process of getting ready. They sort of did like an extend. And it's like one of those joint practices they had, you know, but like really tempered well for like maintaining. It's probably a good like maintenance moment for them. Load management was good on that one. So I don't know. I'm getting back on the right side of good here with them.

6:43I took the Chiefs last week and it was just a nice, comfortable Sunday. Yeah. Watching them rack up all those first downs against the Raiders. Okay. They're not going to be one of my picks now because you took them. I like it. Sorry. I wasn't. No, it's okay. I had four. I can't see your, I don't look. There's one pick I really like. Okay. Whether I'm right or wrong. Or indifferent. It's not about the number, and that is where I probably differ from you because I've had friends that say, you know, you make picks against the spread off the number, not necessarily the teams. And you know what I mean?

7:12Like, is it a good number? Is it a bad number? Green Bay minus three at Pittsburgh is a totally fair number based on everything that's happened so far. I just believe that this Packers team is coming into its own, and I believe they're significantly better than this Steelers team, who I think is maybe getting a little overvalued in the market. So maybe it is about the number. A Steelers team that is giving up this much on defense, especially in the secondary, is not a Steelers team that I want to back. Not what I recognize. And the Packers offensive line has gotten better. So when they're on offense, I think they'll be able to create open receivers and make some plays against this aging secondary for the Steelers.

7:57And when I think about what's overrated about the Steelers, I think the offense might be a little overrated going up against a team like the Packers who can rush the passer so well and are pretty complete overall on defense. I think they might be exposed based on, you know, a couple of weeks where they had easier opponents. I I'm, I have green Bay winning this one. This is a stay away in terms of the number for me, the green Bay winning is the part that I like number one on third down. So they're the best at converting on third down. And then if you look at their defense, Not only do they have Micah Parsons, who, as far as pure pass rushers go, is just crushing it in terms of, you know, pressure percentage, anything you need him to do.

8:34But also, they're really good at stopping the run. So you make the team even more one-dimensional with Pittsburgh. And even Aaron Rodgers, like, who says he's not, like, he's like, I don't care if I made my peace with it. Please. Do you believe that? I don't. And I don't know what that changes in terms of my picks for the game. But you say it doesn't, but it's fun. Yes. You know, I stay away from the number. I just think that Green Bay wins this one. But you know who else isn't over it? Good old Mr. Eyebrows, Matt LaFleur. Like, he's also, it's not like that was an easy time for him. No. You know, that was very hard on a coach.

9:11Time comes for us all. I mean, it hasn't come for the two of us yet. Never. Well, we don't get hit for a living. It's going to come for us all. If we got hit for a living, we would have been smoked years and years ago. Jordan Love, to me, you know, he's now. He's the present. He's the future. So is Edger and Cooper. So is Michael Parsons. Aaron Rodgers is old. Edger and Cooper is just a cool name. Aaron Rodgers, he's past his prime. And when I look at the coaching matchup, I'm glad you brought up LaFleur and we'll get to your second pick. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Just seeing what it is. I just think the mismatch between Matt LaFleur and Mike Tomlin is a real one.

9:43It was a reminder last week that this is a predictable defense that you kind of know what they're going to do. And to me, Joe Flacco knew what they were going to do before it happened. That's how he was able to anticipate those throws, get rid of the ball so quickly. I think Matt LaFleur is going to be able to anticipate what Mike Tomlin's defense is going to do. And ultimately, I disagree with you. It is about the number. Forget the win. I think they're going to blow him out. I have it like 36 to 18. And after Sunday night, everyone is like, oh, okay, I guess the Packers, who by the way, you only have one loss this season, are back to being, and they are the number one seed in the NFC, are kind of back to being the potential juggernaut that we thought after week one.

10:27You know, seasons go and flows, and I think they're ready to take that mantle back. I mean, is beating the Steelers really mantle-worthy? If they, like, win by three scores, I think so, yes. Okay, got it. I'm saying by three scores. All right, your second pick. Okay, so I'm going with this one because that's what my math has, even though it's a big number. Okay. A big hill to climb. But I just think the Colts roll. Interesting. I thought about that, too. Two touchdowns. I know that that number 14 means we could end up with a push, which is always funny. But when I'm looking at the opportunity here, Daniel Jones and that offense and the balance that they get from Jonathan Taylor rushing the ball, it's just really hard to imagine a scenario where Tennessee can really keep it close.

11:09Now, I do anticipate in the future Cam Ward to be getting easier probability passes for the not to take as many sacks. Some of it's on him. Some of it's on his own line. Some of it, a lot of it, is on the scheme. When you have such a low completion percentage like he does at sub-57%, it means that none of the easy throws are there. Cam Ward's not incapable of making a three-yard throw. He's not Anthony Richardson. No offense to Anthony Richardson. I'm not Anthony Richardson. Whatever. I'm just saying I agree with you. He has a more complete skill set, although he is good at throwing those deep overs.

11:42and passed on the field. Yeah, but you're asking, right now, you're asking, they just put LeJarius Sneed on IR for Tennessee's defense. Jeffrey Simmons is expected to miss this game, and he is by far their most important player. Exactly. They're banged up up front. So let's say by some miracle he plays, he's not 100%. He's like 25%, 30 % of what he normally, which is still better than a lot of people, but it's not really crazy. I don't know if he's already been ruled out. We should probably look that up. They said he's week to week. Week to week, I don't know. But they basically, and he hasn't practiced.

12:14Okay, he hasn't practiced. But let's just be fair. Even if he does play, he's not 100%. Can we agree on that? Sure. Okay, so ultimately for me, I think two touchdowns for a team that feels very slighted. Like they're sitting there being like, hey, why aren't we being considered amongst the best Super Bowl contenders or whatever? Because nobody's talking about us. Everyone's talking about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Everyone's talking about, and let's be fair, they have the best record in the AFC. They're undefeated in the AFC. They should at least be talked about. Do I think they should be a Super Bowl contender for sure?

12:45No. Feisty contender, yes. Oh, I think so because. But like, do you say perennial Super Bowls after this short of the year? I don't know. No. It's halfway through. But my point is. I call the Chiefs the best offense in the league. That's unfair, actually, to the Colts. It is. That would be one, two for me right now. And the thing they have in common is a great offensive line. They actually are getting healthier. They get Josh Downs back this week. It looks like he is out of the red non-contact jersey. He was out with a concussion last week. And that just makes for the first time actually in a while, because Alec Pierce was hurt that they have their full compliment of weapons.

13:17And, and I like that Daniel Jones still has a higher passer rating under pressure than not under pressure. That's a little, it's definitely a misleading stat, but I like it because it kind of tells it encapsulate who's who Daniel Jones is this season. Meaning, you know, we talk about leaving the giants and it was a bad experience there. So God forbid someone succeeds behind a good old line. Like that's fun. We like that, you know? I look at a team total here, if you're into that sort of thing. I've been very good on totals this year. It's kind of weird. Usually that's not my forte. Like, I don't know what the Titans team total.

13:51I could figure it out in my head with the spread and everything if I looked. But, like, I'd go over 35. I mean, they put up 41 on the Colts. Their average is 33.1. They put up 41 on the Colts previously. That's the only – or the Titans previously. That's the only argument against it is I always am a little wary. division matchup second time around. If the first time's a blowout, can you blow out the same team twice? They did blow out the Titans earlier this season. It was 41-20. At one point in that game, I believe it was like 35-13 or something. So they really took care of them. I expect you'll be right again.

14:26It's a big number. John at the Taylor had three touchdowns three times this season. Once was against the Titans. Maybe now it's time for like, I don't know. They're putting a 40-burger up. The only chance the Titans have to cover is scoring some garbage cup downs late and getting up to like 28 points. But I don't think that's going to happen. So I like that pick. Okay, the second pick for me. I'm taking the Falcons minus seven and a half. And this is how you know, I'm feeling the flow right now. Three straight winning wins. Because I went against the Falcons last week. Nailed that. Nailed it. And now I'm going back on them because they are an every other week type of team.

15:03They are a good home team. Some good math. it's so stupid but they really are i know it's just funny they're they're a good home team but more than anything they're playing the miami dolphins and when i think about team totals for instance i would put the miami dolphins offense team total in this game in the low teens like at most like i would not be surprised if they are in the single digits by the end of this game. They were in the single digits last week. And yeah, you have Tua who is just not playing with any confidence right now. But more than anything, you have an offensive line, and you saw this against Cleveland, that cannot identify where the pass rush is coming from.

15:46They're not physically talented, Cynthia, but they're also not well coached, where just free rushers are coming in all the time, and so Tua has no chance. Who is better at creating free rushers this year than Raheem Morris in this defense, especially when they're on a fast track. So this Dolphins team, I think they're one game away from maybe having a coaching change. Their former player, Teron Armstead, was on a podcast this week with Kevin Clark, just talking about what he saw was not, like what he recognized out of the Dolphins, which is a lot of indecision, a lot of, you know, they're not even knowing what's going on.

16:23And I think that's a unique opportunity, a unique market opportunity to just go against this Dolphins team right now because I think they're a dead team, and they're playing a pretty good Falcons team with a borderline great defense right now. They're the top defense by a lot of metrics so far this season. I mean, things are bad when you have the coach talking about the number of interceptions, which is tied for the league lead, and the quarterback being like, oh, yeah, no problem, like having to deflect it. Like it's like just things all doesn't seem well at home there. I also remember the last home game they had, and I think this offense for the Falcons are one of the reasons why they're kind of an every-other-week team.

17:04I think if they face the right opponent, I don't think they're that well coached. They're a little disjointed. The run and the pass don't really match up, but when they play a team they're just way more talented than, like the Dolphins, who are so poorly coached, then Bajon Robinson just does Bajon Robinson things, and you could see another 175-yard type of game. So seven and a half is a lot. It was at seven earlier in the week, but I feel good about this. It's really two picks that I really like, and there's a lot of just likes out there for the rest of my picks. I'm curious where you go number three.

17:34Okay, so what number do you see right now? I don't want to do this one because I don't know who the quarterback is for 100 % sure. What's the number for Philadelphia right now? Seven and a half for the Eagles. What's the one that you're not sure about the quarterback? Well, I need to know who else is playing besides Lamar Jackson. Okay. Because the Ravens is always a confusing one. Because, yes, I know. I'm pretty sure that Lamar will be back. It seems quite optimistic that they get most of their defense back, essentially, Roquan. That's the question. They're all back at practice this week. It looks pretty optimistic.

18:10I'm just going to – at this point, I don't know. You're afraid. I'm afraid because look at my record. It sucks. Let's just go – The only person who missed practice fully on Thursday for the Ravens was DeAndre Hopkins with an illness. Everyone else was back to full. So Awuzie, Kyle Hamilton, full. Marlon Humphrey, full. Roquan Smith, full. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley, full. It's pretty rare to have full and not be back. Now, are they going to be 100 %? We'll find out. But it does feel like the buy helped them out. Just for context for our listeners. For the futures market, I think them winning the division is a very smart situation to be in.

18:47But that's not a week-to-week situation for us here. So I'm going to actually, whoo! I know that they're very banged up as well. But I think Tampa Bay rebounds in New Orleans. I know division matchups, blah, blah, blah. But it's four and a half. I'm on the other side of this one. I'm not going to make it one of my picks, but I am. Yeah, I mean, four and a half feels like a lot. Does it? It does a little bit because I think the Saints coming up, they've really had two terrible games this year, the Saints, against the Seahawks and the Bears. Generally, I don't think that's where they're at. So I kind of expect them to bounce back.

19:23I also think the Bucs have been not just beaten up, but big game after big game after big game after big game. They got the bye next week. They still have a lot of injuries. They're going on the road. This is just one where if I'm the Bucs and I'm their fans and you somehow get out of there and you have to sweat out every bit of a three-point win, I just would be happy. But then they don't cover for you. And that's just me personally. You like it. No, don't let me talk you out of it. What do I know? Well, I just like it because my reason for liking it. No, you really make a strong point. Your picks have been great on game debut.

19:53It's unfortunate. That the ones I pick here are the crappy ones. It's unfortunate that the way our format is, it's a small sample size. Three per week is difficult. Yeah, but you think I'd be bad anyways. You've been good the last couple years. But, yeah. So, don't listen to me. I mean, whatever. I'm going to go with Baker. Okay. Mostly because of his rushing capabilities. And the fact that Emeka Agbuka and Tez Johnson will be the two starting outside wide receivers. Woo! Abuka is back at practice, so that's great. Yes. Now, if he was somehow not there, then life would be a different story. But I just believe that the knowledge that these two have of each other, Baker says he doesn't like them.

20:28He went on record and said he didn't like them, which makes me like, Angry Baker is my favorite Baker. So, like, he didn't like them. They don't like him. Let's go. Angry Cynthia. I've never really seen her. Just put me in front of a Waymo, darn it. In front of a Waymo and put you in a line trying to get into work. Oh, my God. On a home game for the Chargers. Can I tell you, if you don't have the right parking pass. It's troubling. Do not go in the line for the parking pass. Yeah. It's tough. It's tough what we have to go through. But is that so hard? I feel you, but at this point, I'm just accepting on a game day, you know, people don't know.

21:10There's going to be issues. You know what else is very interesting? Yeah. For every game, I monitor the price. Because the price of the parking for the people who are the non, like, whatever, they just arbitrarily make a different number. It's based, I would guess, on just how popular the game is. But you're right, it is bizarre that they do that. It's bizarre because... Rams charge more. The Rams charge at least$15 more just for any game. Nobody cares about this, but I do. I do. I think it's interesting. Market economics here. We'll just... But the Vikings fans, they're trying to gouge them. Oh, really?

21:44Yeah. It was like up at almost Rams prices. It's a hot one. I bet there are a lot of Vikings fans here. Maybe it's because it's a night game. I don't know. All I know is that it was impressive how much money they can get for that. My final pick, and this is really a pick that is not about the number, is the Bills. Okay. Plus seven on the road. I mean, they're almost – it's like last week's game where I was saying they were just begging you to take the Bucs. Yeah. And you know what? They were right. It's a tasty little snack. And I messed up. I feel like they're just begging you. They are begging you.

22:19To take the Panthers here. They're begging you to. I thought it was seven and a half. Is it seven or seven and a half? I see seven on draft things right now. Okay, that's better because I was seeing seven and a half and I have an eight-point win. Yeah, we have seven. And it's just a hunch I have. No, I think you're right. Based on a few things. Number one, Josh Allen's never lost three games in a row in his career. Yeah. Number two, the Panthers' pass rush versus the Bills' offensive line is as big a mismatch as you can have in the league. And so Josh Allen with all the time, all the pass protection, I know that they've been a little uneven in terms of their offense lately.

22:58But, man, I just think that's a mismatch up front. That big of a mismatch up front, I like the Bills. And on the other side, the Panthers should be able to run the ball a little bit, and so that's worrisome. The main reason here is, though, not only is Andy Dalton expected to start for the Panthers, which is a downgrade for me. I think the Panthers have been fattening up on some relatively easy competition. And I have seen this Bills team over and over in the Sean McDermott era have little downturns during the season and self-correct. Often it's around a bye that they've been able to diagnose.