Week 9 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

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1:40Cynthia Frelund:Weather, traffic. Hey, stay in your lane. Your wireless carrier's latest price hike, but you can unlock a better way. Unlock the savings at Boost Mobile and save up to$600 a year. Switch to the$25 a month unlimited wireless plan. No No contracts, no price hikes, and you keep your phone. Stop being locked into their games. Unlock the savings at BoostMobile.com slash unlock. Based on average annual single line of payment of AT &T, Verizon, and T-Mobile customers, compared to 12 months on the Boost Mobile Unlimited Wireless plan as of January 2026. For full offer details, visit BoostMobile.com. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're just doing it for Cynthia's neighbor.

2:16I'm Greg Rosenthal here. Exactly. The Chris Wesleyan Podcast Studio.

2:20Cynthia Frelund:I hear we're big with your neighbors. My neighbor told me, he's like, I listen. Why do you guys only pick three? I'm like, well, we pick all the rest of them. We just pick three for this specific show. You do a good job of picking good ones. My picks overall are good, but my picks for this show. Yeah, straight up, you're crushing me. That's on Game Day View. We're on NFL Network every week. Last week, I did go 3-0. That is my fifth straight winning week. So I'm now 15-12. There you go. You had a bad week, but you're a roller coaster ride. There's still time. There's still time. You're going to bounce back.

2:52Yeah, I'm going to bounce back. Thank you to Caleb Williams. Anyone that had the Bears covering last week and they actually get the touchdown at the end instead of the game-winning field goal, I mean, that means you're just... A lot of luck is involved, to say the least, Cynthia. So I'll take it. Luck or skill?

3:08Cynthia Frelund:I mean, the skill to know that neither defense wanted to play. Let's just have a 40 billion big plays. No big deal. Although I did have the Seahawks and the Cardinals, and those were like easy-peasy covers. So I feel like you're going to get there this week. Do you want me to start? Should we change it up? You start. Change it up. Let's change it up. I'm going against my rules. I'm taking the bucks minus two and a half. I have rules written in pencil. Well, if they're written in pencil, they're meant to be broken. One of them is don't pick against your own team, if at all possible. You know, I got on Danny Heifetz, our friend, where we made picks from the ringer who was with us in Dublin, and he only had one pick, and he went against his Giants.

3:46I was like, why are you going to pick against your team? And then, you know what? He was wrong. It was Jackson Darts full first start, but I don't love a lot of games this week. I really loved a bunch last week. I did not have hot takes. The one I felt the most comfortable about was actually the Bucks. And I know you're, you disagree with me on this one. I don't know if this will be one of your three, but I just, one of my three, I do disagree with, I just think that the Patriots offensive line communication in particular, and their offensive line in general is going to be really tested against Todd Bowles.

4:18I think if you're looking for a mismatch in this game, I think the Bucs are a complete team. I don't think the Patriots offensive line is as good. I don't think the Patriots pass defense is as good. And I've just been waiting for them to make a step up in class. And I know they beat the Bills on a night where they won the turnover margin. And maybe that'll happen again. But I think this is a step up in class for them after they've been playing some pretty bad team. The Bucs are rested, coming off of a bye. They're a little healthier. I just think they're better. I think they're better. Who's playing?

4:47Well, I don't think Godwin or Bucky Irvine are playing. They seem like they are out. Abuka seems like he is playing for sure.

4:53Cynthia Frelund:Right. But I don't know. My problem is, is they're already not rushing the ball. Lowest yard per rush average. The Bucs. The Bucs. Yeah. And you know who's really going to stop in the run? The Patriots. Both of these teams are, though. So I kind of looked at that like, OK, neither team can run. Who do I trust more to pass when you peek behind the hood, underneath the hood? The pass defense for the Patriots, not as not as good. They haven't played many quarterbacks as good as Baker Mayfield. They're good at the intermediate level, though. I will say that they're good at defending intermediate passes.

5:22Cynthia Frelund:But I don't have a lean in this one. OK, I think that I have the Patriots winning by one point. So stay away in terms of playing that one for me. But I'll you know what? There's there's a few things that I do believe in. OK. And the Giants inability to stop outside runs. Oh, that's one of them. until they stop, until they show me that they can even remotely stop an outside rush. I mean, they're at some like crazy pace, like every single metric that you get yards per rush, explosives, rushing yards over expected, yards after the carry, like all of the things that let you run against them, they don't do.

6:03Cynthia Frelund:They're like, we'll stop. We're going to sell out to stop the pass, but you can run against us. Like just run to the outside. It's great. And so that's why I think that the Chicago bears win by more than three and a half points because of that outside rushing. Not because I think that the, not because I think that Kayla Williams is going to go lights out. I know the splits are dramatic. You saw great results against crappy defenses and not as great results against better defenses, but I think that the Giants run defense, they have proven. They're historically bad. There are some numbers that show that they are among the worst run defenses through nine weeks of the last handful of years.

6:36Now I do see it at four and a half. So you're going to have to take that.

6:40Cynthia Frelund:That's okay. Okay. Fine by me. I've seen that this week because I was thinking about going on the other side. I'm not going to now. You can go the other side. They're not. It didn't make my cut. I didn't like many picks this week. And then so I had to write down a few more. I wrote down five. It was fifth out of my five. And the only reason why was a reason, and I'll use it now to go to my next pick, which is Saints plus five and a half. One of the things I do when I struggle to find a pick that I like, I just look for teams that I'm like, should the Panthers ever be favored by five and a half points?

7:15I'm not ready to get there. When they're playing another NFL team, I am not there for the 2025 Panthers to be favored five and a half. I'm just like, I'll blindly take those points. And that was kind of what I was thinking with the Bears too, is like, do I really want to give away four and a half points to any NFL team, no matter what reasoning I could come up with for it? I don't know if I trust the Bears that much, But that's that game when it comes to the Panthers. You know, they are a team that's won a couple games against really good teams. And they've won it ugly. This is a different scenario with them as a favorite.

7:52They haven't had a great passing game lately. I thought Tyler Shuck looked OK last week. I don't know. It's more just the blind. I'm taking anyone. And obviously the Saints might be the worst team in the NFL. So it doesn't feel great. But I'm taking anyone plus five and a half against the Panthers.

8:05Cynthia Frelund:I had to look three times when I'm like, Carolina, five and four. I'm like, Carolina, five and four. What? Oh, okay. I mean, good for them. And as a Lion, taking myself out of an analyst for a second, as a Lions fan, I was very glad that the Panthers managed to beat the Packers. Hell yeah. You know, if you're going to drop one to the stupid Vikings, then stupid Lions, at least you didn't get punished by the Packers also winning. It's never good to drop in division, I understand, but at least the Packers didn't win. That's like the saving grace of last week for Lions fans. The fact that it's division matters to me.

8:36Now, I know it's a new head coach in Kellen Moore, so it's not like there's a history here. It's more the style that both teams play, frankly, but especially the Panthers. I think it invites close games. That's what they want. You know, even in their wins, that's what it's looked like. You know, they are only two weeks away from their last home game where they lost 40 to nine. You know what I mean? You know, when they played... just like so five and a half points just seems like a lot to me that the saints have not shown much to believe in they just traded rashid shaheed there are definitely reasons uh to believe that they're not going to win this game but can they play better this week and just keep it close on principle when i look at the panthers too i also see offensive line injuries taylor moten uh their right tackle from oakum is michigan might be gone from michigan they're injured on the interior.

9:29That's where you're from as well.

9:30Cynthia Frelund:Yeah. Okay. Right. There's like three of us that have anything to do with NFL. So it's a tiny town. Who is the third? Um, well he, he's actually the, um, tight end coach for, for the Jags. It's great. His name is John Van Dam. He went to Michigan state. It's John Van Dam, John Claude Van Dam, but just John Van Dam. Um, went with Liam Cohn. Now I don't know how much money that guy makes, but I'm going to go ahead and say it that Taylor Moten, who's has a big second year contract. He's the richest one from what town is it called? Okemos. Okemos. Uh-huh. And then it's you versus Van Damme for number two.

10:04Cynthia Frelund:Van Damme beats me. They don't give me that Greg Rosenthal money. You got some, oh, please. You got some contracts with teams. I made some good investments in crypto a long time ago and haven't touched it. So on paper, maybe I have like$10 and you know, whatever. Actually, I did just look for an update and Taylor Mowen is practicing. That's good. That's a good sign. Chandler Zavala is out in this game. He's one of their interior linemen that might be out. But anyways, I'm going to change plus five and a half. All right, your second pick. Listen, I know I don't like picking against the Chargers.

10:41Cynthia Frelund:I don't. But I'm going to do it here. Because giving three points up at home to the Steelers when you don't have Joe Alt, and I don't know what's going on with your running backs, who's healthy, who's going to play. I just Hampton. Not Hampton. That's what I'm saying. So it just feels like there's that's too big of a number. I know it's only three, so it's not a big number. But I saw the Steelers get their defense going. I know Aaron Rodgers is good against zone. And, you know, who likes to play a lot of zone is the Chargers. Even though they've had good results with zone, Aaron Rodgers kind of picking apart their zone might be a little different than just like regular old quarterback picking apart their zone.

11:17Cynthia Frelund:So I think that's too many. I actually think that the Steelers win this one outright. I think the upset happens. I'm just curious. I'm not going to be here, so you're going to have to tell me what the parking number is because you know I track how much everyone charges for parking. I'll get here too early because that's a Sunday night game and we'll just be in the building, but I'll look. I'll look. Because I think for Steelers, it could be a lot. I would, if I'm, if I'm the people who have the parking, it's basically their yards outside of the stadium, like on the way, I'm jacking that price up because Steelers fans' willingness to pay is high.

11:47I've been there for a Steelers-Chargers primetime game here. I don't remember if it was Thursday night. It wasn't Sunday night. It was either Thursday or Monday night a couple of years ago. And yeah, the Steelers fans, they showed up.

11:59Cynthia Frelund:I'm guessing 80 bucks. I'm guessing 80. It's crazy. That's an insane number. Like for some other ones, it's 40. Well, Dodger Stadium, when I went for the NLCS, was 60, I believe. And then for the World Series, and this is just team, you know, they're the ones getting the money. It went up to like 80 or 90. It's just like five days later, they just jacked it up a couple spots. It's like, give me a break. I love this pick. I'm with you. I think the Steelers went straight up. Me and you are on the same side. Our friend Patrick Claibon is not on our side, but I have them winning straight up. A lot of reasons why you went into a lot of it.

12:30The one I would just would add is the Chargers defense quietly, one of the worst run defenses in the league. It's almost like they're playing that bend, don't break defense. That's their style. But you get Pittsburgh and that those heavy personnel packages and the extra offensive linemen and Darnell Washington and Jalen Warren. Warren, I'm the leader of the Jalen Warren for the Pro Bowl campaign. I mean, all pros too much, but Jalen Warren, to me, has been playing fantastic. And I think he could have a big game running against the Chargers. So, Joe All, I thought, would have moved the line more than he did.

13:04Cynthia Frelund:Maybe it was sort of baked in. I don't know. I don't know. I was trying to look at that, too. His on-off splits, and I know some of it is... It's almost a 10 percentage point different in pressure percentage. It makes an in the running game. I think it really impacts him, too. It hurts me. I'm picking against these teams. I know. I don't like picking against them. I like the Chargers. Sure. I like all teams. Okay. Actually, I don't. That's not true. But I like both of these teams. I'm pivoting for my third pick. Okay. So far, I have the Bucs minus two and a half. Saints plus five and a half. Okay.

13:34Earlier today, I wrote down the Cardinals getting six and a half. Woo-wee. Okay. And I'm changing that. That's got to be my extra game.

13:43Cynthia Frelund:Okay. I was going to say you don't like that because I like that. I do like it. But I lost a little bit of my courage. Why? Because, okay, Max Melton, I mean, that's only like a cornerback, but he's a good one. He has a concussion. I saw Will Johnson is a little banged up another cornerback, but it sounds like he was limited. So I was like, wow, two cornerbacks. I do think the Seahawks are the best team maybe in the entire NFL, even though I think the Cardinals, who have not lost by more than four points all season, will keep it close. And Seattle's coming off high. It is a short week. So if I can only pick three games, I'm going to just go with my gut.

14:18That's what I do. I'm not about the numbers. I'm just feeling it. And I just, even though the 49ers always play the Rams close, I think the Rams are going to blow them out this week. And I know the numbers will probably disagree with me here. I think they're minus four and a half. This matchup has always been tough for Sean McVay in general. But at some point, all these injuries for the 49ers are going to catch up to them.

14:41Cynthia Frelund:Michael Williams now too. He's gone too. Bryce Huff might be back for this game. but Matthew Stafford with time is the best quarterback in the league right now. And this is a bad pass defense in terms of the 49. 22%. That's the amount of pressure there. It's like something crazy like that. It's so bad. And then you look, okay, the 49ers started out three, you know, but if we're just isolating since the injuries, you know, really came in there, they're two and three since then the losses are all by more than four and a half. A couple of them are by double digits to, and I know they beat the Rams, But if anything, that kind of makes me want to pick the Rams more in that.

15:16If you're the inferior team and you're in the division, you're happy. You got the split. You're not going to sweep them. I don't think they're going to sweep them. So I'm going Rams minus four and a half to just really announce themselves as real deal Super Bowl contenders. If people don't already see them that way.

15:30Cynthia Frelund:I mean, I think Matthew Stafford is right up there for MVP consideration. So I think they've already announced that. I, you know, my gut. Let me just see. My math is does have a closer game. See, I knew it. The math, it does make sense because they do weird stuff against each other. Like when you look at Christian McCaffrey's use, like if you look at how when he's been sent in motion, he's got like a motion share rate of like 35%. It's the most in the league. But then when he plays, when he plays against the Rams, they trick you. He doesn't get used in motion. They target him twice before. Like point being is they have specific game plans for each other and know each other so well.

16:05Cynthia Frelund:It's like fighting with your sibling. You really know how to get under there. And it's definitely big brother, little brother. And for the most part, Kyle has gotten the better of Sean McVay with some big exceptions. The biggest one being the NFC championship game, the biggest game they ever played. That was probably a big one. That was a big one. Last year, also, the Rams got the better of them, but they were a better team last year. So I'm feeling OK about that. They didn't have Christian McCaffrey, who averages 158 scrimmage yards per game against them. Look, your neighbor wanted extra picks.

16:32I just gave him an extra one, which is also Arizona plus six and a half. But that is not going to be the official one.

16:37Cynthia Frelund:OK. And the reason we don't do them all, I don't know, just leave them wanting more. Who knows? Maybe God willing, if we're back for 2026, maybe we'll expand it to five picks or something. Love it. I love it. Okay. Your last one. They're the away team. It's happening in Minnesota, but I think Baltimore goes in and wins by more than four points. I'm glad you talked about this one. I want to hear why. Why do you think the JJ McCarthy first start is not enough data basically to feel confident that he'll be good. The offense will be good against this Ravens defense. I just think that Lamar Jackson is in his bag.

17:15Cynthia Frelund:Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews. Like, I just think he's in his bag. And I don't think this defense, even with Andrew Van Ginkle back, who is a difference maker. I don't think that they like, sure. Okay. You can, you can get some pressure on Jared Goff. Who's not a mobile quarterback, but what happens when that guy runs and smokes you? I'm asking, I don't know. Like the, to me, it's just, there's too many areas where Lamar Jackson is being the best quarterback in football that I don't think this defense has, they can't handle all that smoke.

17:48Cynthia Frelund:It's, it's not a, it's, I'm not an anti JJ McCarthy pick. It's not any of that stuff. It's really just about like, by the way, the splits on JJ McCarthy from last game, if he got the ball out quickly under 2.5 seconds, it went well. If he held onto the ball longer, it didn't go as well. So will they be able to get him with quick pressures or stay in coverage long enough to make him uncomfortable? Sure. That's going to be a problem that they'll have to figure out. They got Draymond Jones. Maybe they'd get a little bit more, you know, pressure-y. I don't know. I don't care. To me, this one is all about Lamar Jackson greater than, greater than, greater than anything you're going to bring him against the Vikings.