Week 9 NFL Picks with Cynthia Frelund

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Lowe's knows Sundays are for football. So tackle your home improvement projects by Saturday and earn your Sunday with great deals on LG and Bosch appliances, select Bounty and Swiffer cleaning products, and more. Then once your to-do list is done, get ready to kick back, relax, and enjoy the game. shop in store or online now and earn your sunday with help from lowe's official partner of the nfl wasabi is purpose-built to free your business from skyrocketing storage costs and fees wasabi is the go-to provider for professional and collegiate sports teams around the world check out wasabi's ai-enabled intelligent media storage wasabi air to the industry's only cloud storage service with triple protection against cyber criminals.

0:55Wasabi, driving innovation in data storage for up to 80 % less than market competition. Try for free at wasabi.com. Wasabi, hot cloud storage, proud partner of iHeart Podcast Network. When one person serves, the whole family supports the mission. At American Military University, they honor that commitment with reduced tuition for military families. If someone in your family served in the military, you may qualify for this reduced tuition because service opens doors and your next opportunity could start today. American Military University is your path forward, dedicated to serving those who have served.

1:32Contact them today and learn more at amu.apus.edu slash military. And now another appliance triumph from our friends at Grand Appliance. With three kids, I'm always cramming the washer full. So when we needed a new laundry set, I asked the experts at Grand Appliance for a big capacity washer with a dryer that could keep up. They recommended Electrolux, and we love it. Advanced cleaning features with a massive dryer that gets everything dried the first time? Yes, please. Sounds like another perfect match from the Grand team. Shop GrandAppliance.com.

2:11Welcome to NFL Daily, where we hate a late week injury status change. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here in the Chris Wessling Podcast Studio, taping on a Thursday afternoon with Cynthia Freeland. And I like to put the time when we're taping, and now the show is just going straight out, because every once in a while, we'll pick a game, and we think that Michael Penix and Drake London are involved, and we get in trouble. That's what happened to me last week, when suddenly it was Kirk Cousins throwing to Darnell Mooney, and I was losing that Falcons by a lot. Well, I mean, Lamar Jackson did it. Like, we got a lot of like, we got bamboozled.

2:50It's tough. But we're here. We're in the studio. If you're new to the show, we pick three games against the spread every week. Now, it's a small sample size. So it's tricky. It's very tricky. And when you dig a hole, you need some hot weeks to get out of it. And that's what Cynthia Freeland is coming off. 3-0 last week. And I'm still not to 500. Good job. You took some heavy favorites, and that was the way to go. Whatever. So Cynthia went 3-0. I went two and one. I went and checked the numbers. I've gone two and one, four straight weeks after going one and two, four straight weeks. So we're on a hot streak.

3:23So I'm back to 500. You're very close. And you've been on fire, taking over first place on game day view as well. So I will let you start coming off a three and O week where I believe you didn't even have to sweat out any of your games. It was pretty easy peasy. Well, the one that, I mean, I think we all kind of sweat out the Bengals and Jets, even though, because nobody, I don't think anyone in game day, if you pick the Jets, but of our three for this show. I mean, yeah, for this show. No, we were in good news. I, you know what? I'm going to, I don't like the Falcons and I'm mad at them for being so like tricky.

3:57So I'm going to go with New England to cover. I know five and a half it's at home, but here's my, here's what I'm telling you. I don't think Drake, like, first of all, Drake may is the most honest kid ever. When he threw an interception against the Browns, he's like, I didn't know that guy could jump. Like he just was, I just like love him. And I don't think that this is where the Falcons come back and start to look like the good version of them, which we saw against the bills. Sure. I think it's, I don't think they're the dolphins or Panthers game, but I don't know who they are. I don't know if they know who they are.

4:28I don't know who's playing Michael Penix Jr. Maybe probably. Okay. It looks like it. I don't know. I think I'm going with, sorry, I'm yelling in your ear. Apparently. No, no, no. I'm turning it up. Actually. I want more Cynthia. More Cynthia. But I think, I don't know, I'm mad at them. So this is a pure spite pick. Okay, that's interesting. They're not one of my picks. I've been negging the Patriots too much this season. And I think that's my fan side coming out that I can't quite believe they're this good because I truly don't think they are. I think they have issues, but I do believe Drake May is this good.

5:04It is crazy if you think about it because their pass protection hasn't been great. Nope. Their running game hasn't been great. Nope. They've really made it work with this group of receivers, which I do think is better than people think. Keishon Booty, Demario Douglas, Stefan Diggs, Hunter Henry. But you can't say that's... That's not like a top... No. You're like, whoa, that's scary. No, but yet the man is just crushing. He has more, you know, the stat that we've been talking about all week long. More deep 20-plus air yard passing touchdowns than incompletions on such passes. That's insane. Five passing touchdowns for more than 20 air yards, only four incompletions on such passes.

5:39I mean, I just think he doesn't know what he doesn't know. He's like a puppy, you know, like, like it's just going to keep going. Like, no, there's no like a likable puppy. And yeah, when he doesn't like a puppy, yeah, when puppies are inherently likable. He speaks, he just, I just like, man, I'm old because he just seems so young to be like in the NFL and a franchise quarterback. And he's been great. And one thing he does have is a, is a really good offensive coordinator who I think is helping him along the way. And you mentioned the Falcons. Who are they? Who they haven't been the last two weeks, despite all those blitzes, is a team that creates pressure.

6:12So I found that interesting. I don't know if there's been something on tape, but the last two opponents, the Dolphins and the 49ers, have both gotten the ball out quickly and done a good job stopping those blitzes. So the pass rush hasn't been there. I love that first pick because I hope it happens. All right. I'm going to start with my most confident pick of the week. It's going to be one of my most confident picks of the season. Whoa. I've been on Seattle very consistently. They haven't all been right. Cause I remember I went against them for Tampa. That was my pick of the year, unfortunately.

6:45But I've been right on them quite a bit. I just think top to bottom, they might be the best team in the NFL. And I think this Washington commanders team still has some juice in the numbers that is showing up and it's why they're only three-point underdogs at home to the Seahawks. And maybe your model goes on the other side, because I know they have some underlying numbers from the start of the season that makes them look better than they are. But man, they're a team, Cynthia, that gives up a lot of big plays. And who gets a lot of big plays? Old slinging Sammy Darnold trying to win the ninth straight game on the road for the Mike McDonald Seahawks.

7:26That just seems random to me, but at some point I have to recognize that they are a good road team. And I just think they're another class than the Washington Commanders team, which has injury problems and especially problems on the defensive side of the ball. And no Terry McLaurin. And I mean, we still don't even know who they're going to play. Probably Jaden Daniels. Sure, but is it 100 %? No, we don't know. I don't know. I just think all these people are liars. So I don't do the liars though that much, you know? I don't think they mean to me. They're not doing it on purpose. They've lied about McLaurin before too on the other side where they thought he was going to be okay.

7:59And then he wasn't. He was finally back in last week and it really helped them. And then he goes out in the fourth quarter. He's definitely out. Laramie Tunsil is not healthy. That's a huge one. He was in and out of that game and it was like crazy different. So that again, we're taping this on Thursday, but to me, it makes no sense that the Seahawks would only be three point favorites in this game. The vibes in Washington also terrible. they have this thing where they have it's like ptsd and they think they're back in the dan snyder era and everyone's panicking and i want to say look you still have jayden daniels this is never going to be a one-year turnaround it's an older roster you're taking a step back to take a step forward but man i have some commanders fans in my life and i'm seeing the reports in the media and stuff and it's just like this is chaos since they lost that bears game it has just been all bad And I think this is a horrible matchup for them.

8:51By the way, health-wise, Devin Witherspoon is coming back for the Seahawks. That's a big deal. They're coming off a bye. So they are as healthy as they've been all year. No Julian Love, but for the most part, that is a healthy-looking Seahawks team. And a great, great pass rush is going to make it tough on Jaden Daniels. I have that one, too, but I'm going to not pick it just because we've got to add more picks to the show. All right, give me your second pick. But I like that one. Okay, so I know 10's a lot, but I don't really care because I'm looking at this Chargers team and I'm looking at what's going on in the Titans.

9:21I know that it's playing at home. I understand that's two scores. What are you seeing? I have good news for you. It's nine and a half? It is less than that. Let's go. I am looking on DraftKings. I'm trying to remember from where it was earlier. It was 10. Nine and a half. Whatever. Just a little bit less. I don't care. Fine by me. I'll take it. We're going to give you every chance to get the wins. And it was eight and a half at one point this week, but it's nine and a half here. So you get it at nine and a half. That's what I can do for you. So, okay. Right now, let's talk. Thank you. You know, I appreciate that half a point that you just bought me.

9:53That was fantastic. It's actually, that's a big half a point. It is a big half. Ten to nine and a half. Absolutely. Yes. But I'm looking at this one and I'm thinking, okay, Joe Alt, the difference with him playing versus not playing, we saw literally and figuratively massive, very different. You see huge results there. Four and one when he's there, one and two when he's not, whatever. Like this whole thing when he's on the field versus off the field. But the other part that I like is this isn't Jeffrey Simmons probably won't be playing, which that helps kind of a lot when you like to run the football.

10:22I understand this is a year where the Chargers are kind of throwing the ball more than running the ball, but I still think that even though, like, even if Jeff Simmons were playing, it's okay. Jeffrey Simmons is really, really tough, but there's so many other places to target. They're just missing so many pieces on that defense, like LeJarrius Sneed. I just don't understand how you stop the Chargers at half capacity. I was watching a press conference on Twitter from Denard Wilson, their defensive coordinator. And I felt bad for this man. They asked him about the Roger McCreary trade. We shouldn't forget that one either.

10:53Right. Starting cornerback for their team. Probably their best cornerback right now because there's not a lot of good options. Right. And he was like, yeah, you know, we started the season with Jarvis Brownlee and McCreary and LeJaria Sneed. And it's unfortunate we don't have any of them available anymore. It was almost a shot at the front office. Like, what are you doing? Here's who's not playing on top of, you know, the cornerback they traded away. Jeffrey Simmons has not practiced. He's not expected to play. Xavier Woods, starting safety, has not practiced. Calvin Ridley, hamstring, has not practiced.

11:27Chigo Conquo was a surprise DNP on Thursday. Now, he did practice a little on Wednesday, but that's not good. And then Arden Key, one of their starting pass rushers. So this defense, which at least was competitive-ish, going up against this Chargers team, which I think is just, as you mentioned, a different team. And Khalil Mack, by the way. Hey, It's funny what happens when you bring back two of your best four players on the entire team. But I did. I saw something that you and I do want to say Cam Ward did play well. You tweeted or. Yes. I don't remember where I saw it. It was Blue Sky. I just watched that tape and I was like, that was a good Cam Ward game.

12:02That's right. And that can both things can be true. They lost by 24 still. It's like. That's right. So I but I do want to say like I like Cam Ward. I also think like he has like nerves of steel. Like he just doesn't look like he gets rattled, which is pretty cool. So I just want to give him a little bit of love, but I'm picking against him because the entire defense will be watching in the same. They'll all get the same stats as me. Right. My note was that, yeah, Kim Ward played well. I think they found a good couple of receivers in the draft, which is hard to find in the middle, middle rounds.

12:30Those guys are players. I am manner and DK, like they, they will have NFL careers, which is not easy to find the third, fourth round. And my guy, Ty's his spears looked awesome. And yet they still lost by 24. Like that's the type of team that we're talking about. And yeah, But I just want to give a little up. You hit one of those wins last week against, didn't you? Yeah, I think you took the Colts. Yeah, I definitely took the Colts. As one of your picks. Absolutely. Okay, my second pick. Really like this one too. Despite any injury news that pops up. Bears minus three. Okay. That's against the Bengals.

13:03Yep. Coaching mismatch. This is one where I think Ben Johnson has raised the floor. That when he goes up against a defense with this many problems, and my God, the tape last year should be studied. I mean, last week by the Bengals defense. This is the type of tape that you show to show what not to do. Team building and coaching. I was like, where are you going? Like, I can't believe more hasn't been made about it. I guess it's because it was a Jets-Bengals game. Wasn't in prime time. It wasn't seen by a lot of people. It was a fiasco. It was a, everyone here is in trouble of potentially losing their jobs.

13:42So you catch me at a feisty time a week. Yes. This is my like feistiest moment of the week. I don't know why, but I got really annoyed at the end of that game when they were talking about, because obviously Aaron Glenn went for two on, they were down by 14. So Aaron Glenn on the first touchdown, he went for two and you would have thought by what I heard people commenting about, I don't even know who the commenters were, but they were like, you would have thought Aaron Glenn didn't know how to count. I actually do know who the commenters were. I'm not worried about it. I do too, but I'm not going to say it.

14:11Oh, But I was shouting and throwing things. Not because I love analytics and things, but he knows how to count. Yeah. What the heck? I'm glad you mentioned that because their decision to go for two in that spot won them the game. And you know what everyone would have done if they didn't get the two and then they didn't get the two the next time. The analytics thing. Yeah, they would have blamed it all on the analytics. But you know, it wasn't mentioned even by me. I want to apologize. to all the NFL Daily listeners from that Sunday night game because that was awesome. Also, the play that they hit on the two-point conversion by Justin Fields, they actually hit two in a row.

14:51That's right. The first one was, like, outrageous. It was one of those games. It was just touched by the gods. I was happy for them. But anyways, you're right about it. But part of the reason that clownery could work in general was because the defense was like, the Bengals' defense was, you'll outline it. They're playing these two rookies next to each other, Barrett Carter and now I'm blanking on the on the second one I've said his name a million times I know that's Demetrius Knight I got oh yeah yeah yeah okay they're just they're just lost and when I watch the Bears every week Ben Johnson creates mismatches creates advantages I just think I would love their team total too like I just think they're the team total over under is like 32 for them and they have their own problems on defense and Joe Flacco his status is massive for this game.

15:38So we're talking on Thursday, man, you might've get a chance to get the three points against Jake Browning. Although I have a feeling Flacco will wind up playing in this game. So they've, they're a good offense with Flacco. He's playing at a high level, but ultimately I just think the bears, their floor is much higher. I think they get this one. Okay. All right. Your last pick. All right. So my last pick, I'm going to stick with my same theory of going with taking a big winner to win big. Yeah. But I'm not going to go with the Rams because 14 points is kind of a lot. And I do like that. Like, it's very tempting.

16:12I have them winning by more than 14 points. But at home, the Packers, 12 and a half. I like that one. Against the Carolina Panthers. Okay. Book it. That's the one I want. Packers over 12 and a half. By win by more than 12 and a half points. Yeah. I like that one too. I've thought all along this Panthers team. It's like they're a four and four team that profiles more statistically as a two and six team. And I was really excited. My Packers came through for me last week. I went big on them all around saying, I think they're going to win. I think they're going to win easy. Wasn't easy necessarily in the first half, but in the end, they won by two scores.

16:51Like they covered any alternate line you wanted to throw out there on them. And yeah, I just think they're rounding into form. They're a complete team. Like, where's the weakness? maybe pass defense, but not really because they have such a good pass rush. And one thing I noticed about the Panthers last week is they could not protect for Andy Dalton. They've had some injuries and I know your model really accounts for offensive line injuries quite a bit. O-lines are so massive too. Cause you know, it sounds weird cause especially coming off of last week, we had so many games like that weren't one possession finishes.

17:25You kind of forget that any week, any team could kind of stun. Remember, I mean, the Browns beat the Packers, for goodness sake. So when I'm looking at these things, you have to say, what is the most like steadying thing? It's like O-line, O-line, O-line. That's the thing on a game, you know, the biggest game of the week, I think. I got to look to see because Trey Smith like quietly didn't play last week and Josh Simmons quietly has played. So O-lines do matter. Yes, you're, of course, referring to the Chiefs-Bills game, which just as a bonus, we're on other sides of it. I actually hate that. It's not going to be one of our picks.

17:56That's not my pick. No, absolutely. It's not. But your model is picking the Bills. Right. My model is picking the Bills. I think it's drunk. I'm taking the Chiefs, but I don't feel amazing about it. That's why I would never put that game on this show. No, never. No, no, no, no. I'm just going to watch it and enjoy it. But I will be rooting for the Chiefs because I'm going to be rooting against you. Great. I need to catch up on the Queen on our other show. Okay, last one. Feel good about it. What is it? Arizona Cardinals. Yep. Monday Night Football. Yep. Plus two and a half. I was a little surprised about this line.

18:29I think they're a better team than the Cowboys overall. Now, the Cowboys have been particularly good at home and terrible on the road. I don't put much into that in general. I just remember it was literally only a year or two ago that the opposite was true of the Cowboys. It doesn't matter. I'm going off eye test. I think the Cardinals are a perfectly good team. In the last two games I watched. That's what I want to be. Perfectly good. I don't think the Cowboys are. They're worse than that. Right. Last two games I watched closely, Cardinals take the Colts in Indianapolis to the whistle, to the final play.

19:06And it didn't look like they were lucky to be there. And who else? Same thing with the Packers. Green Bay Packers. Yep. Now, as we're taping, there's a little mystery over whether they could start Jacoby Brissett over a healthy Kyler Murray. I didn't think that was possible. but looking at the practice reports on Thursday, it's a Monday night game. The, when the media was there, Jacoby was throwing to the starters. Doesn't bother me at all. In fact, I might like it a little better because the offense performed a little better, but you know what? I'm fine because I feel like anyone can score on the Cowboys defense, Kyler or Jacoby Brissett.

19:44And it's more about the defense and just the total team that they've got a respectable defense, a good enough offense. And that's, I trust like a more complete team versus what the Cowboys have, which is the worst defense in the league or one of them. I think it's possible that Jonathan Gannon's like, let's throw out Jacoby Brissett in front of the media, but we're going with Kyler. Yes, I do too. I do too. I kind of like love him. I think he's like, like, uh, like very passionate, but I think he would do that. I think he, any edge possible. That's one where I'm not going to make any excuses. Like I kind of did up top about my Falcons pick last week.

20:19I was mad about the injuries that popped up. I think those injuries were crazy. They did not feel like that was possible. That was insane. When I read that, I was like, is this from this? You know, we get all these emails, and it's like, you get hundreds of emails every week. And is this from a few weeks ago? Like, is this current? Well, we lock them in here. We lock in our pitch. We lock it in. I'm happy either way. They do have some good injury news, by the way, too. Garrett Williams, who's a good young cornerback, could be coming off the temporary IR for this game. So that's one of their best cornerbacks, and you need it.

20:52CeeDee Lamb, who I do expect to play, was certainly not 100 % by the end of last week. Like, he banged up his ankle. Was he 100 % at the beginning of last week? Fair point. Like, he looked good in that first game back, and then this was his second game back, and at some point in that game, I don't know, or maybe it was even before the game. Right, I don't know. He started limping around, and when you watch the film, he didn't look quite as good. And then you mentioned Gannon. I think he is a good coach. He's a great coach. They're coming off a bye week. They have another defensive player who could be coming back from their defensive line onto the field.

21:27Yeah, their first-round pick, Walter Nolan, might be making his NFL debut. So just a lot there. That's been a long time coming. It really has been. I'm not going to hold my breath. That one is not a huge reason. Sounds like he's like 150 years old, too. I like to say. Walter, welcome to the field. This is your best bit is the Walter Nolan name. It's so old. It just sounds like an old name. It's such an old name. It really does. Also, this team does not deserve to be 2-6, which they would be with loss. They're better than that. I think they're going to get a win on Monday Night Football. What a treat.

21:59I hope you go 3-0 again. Same. I hope you do, too. I hope I do, too. But if not, I hope at least I go 2-1 and keep my 2-1 for five straight weeks. Streak going. Okay. We got the Thursday Night Football recap. And then, of course, on Sunday, we got the whole gang back together. Nick Shook will be back with me. for that. Jordan Roderick. Who else? Patrick Claibon. What? That sounds like a great crew. It's a full house. We'll be talking Bills, Chiefs, and a really fun early slate, including that Colt Steelers game, which I'm really looking forward to. We will see you then.

22:39And now, another appliance triumph from our friends at Grand Appliance. With three kids, I'm always cramming the washer full. So when we needed a new laundry set, I asked the experts at Grand Appliance for a big capacity washer with a dryer that could keep up. They recommended Electrolux, and we love it. Advanced cleaning features with a massive dryer that gets everything dried the first time? Yes, please. Sounds like another perfect match from the Grand team. Shop GrandAppliance.com Paramount Plus is now the home of all your BET favorites. What? Yes! With all new episodes of Tyler Perry's Divorce Sisters.

23:17You've always liked a little drama. Plus a whole new world of movies like Gladiator 2. Now I will control an empire. Original series like The Chi. Just make sure we protect each other. And live sports like UFC. Welcome to the history books! New home, same family. Your BET favorites are now on Paramount+. Subscribe now. Okay, laundry stinks. Literally. I mean, you could just keep buying new underwear. Not that I've ever done that. Or maybe sort your clothes into piles based on how re-wearable or filthy they are. Or just use Arm & Hammer Deep Clean. It's made for real-life stings and stains. So even if you don't do laundry the, quote, right way, Deep Clean will knock it out.