Fox News drops BOMB on Trump -- ON AIR

0:00Brian Tyler Cohen:Fox News delivers some hard truths to their audience about Trump, and I'm joined by the California Attorney General Rob Bonta. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. Sure, sex might be nice, but have you ever heard something like this from Fox News? 51 % would vote Democrat for a Democrat candidate, 43 % for a Republican. Why is this happening? $4 gas,$6 diesel, 7 % mortgages, the ongoing war, and the president is less popular personally than at any time in his second term. His attempt to reverse the trend have fallen flat. $5 ,000 checks for everyone just didn't fly. And the ban on diesel exports won't work.

0:43If this trend continues, the Republicans will lose the House and maybe the Senate. 39 days to the vote. If that happens, say goodbye to what's left of the Trump agenda.

0:53Brian Tyler Cohen:I mean, if this is what a Fox News broadcast sounds like now, do I even have a job anymore? And worst of all for Trump and Republicans, this is just the tip of the iceberg just from Fox News. Days ago, Fox released new polling showing 15 races shifting toward Democrats according to their own polling outfit. And seven of those races shifting toward Democrats are in Florida. Remember, Florida drew a gerrymander on top of an existing gerrymander. But the issue is that that gerrymander assumed that Trump and Republicans margins from 2024 would be permanent. So when young people, people of color, independents, Latinos all shifted to the right, they assumed that realignment wouldn't change.

1:30Brian Tyler Cohen:But now it's clear that it's shifting back among every demographic group, which means that suddenly those gerrymanders risk turning into dummymanders. Here, for example, is CNN's Harry Enten speaking about independence. There are some stunning numbers and I want to talk about independence, but independents who don't lean towards either the Democratic or Republican Party, so-called pure independence. and these numbers and the shift from where we were back in 2024. I mean, look at these numbers. And this is an average of two different polls. Pure independent voters on Trump versus Kamala Harris.

2:02When you average the CES and Pew validated voter survey, he beat, he beat, Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris by 15 points. Look at his net approval rating now with pure independents, those who don't lead towards either the Democratic or Republican Party. It's negative 71 points. I mean, these are the deep depths of the ocean. You never see numbers like these. This is Johnny B. What is this? This is an 86-point shift away from the president of the United States with the group that ultimately really does determine elections. As pure independents go, usually so goes the nation. And right now, Donald Trump is at depths that truly you rarely ever see.

2:45And here he is speaking about Latinos. Specifically speaking about Latino voters here, they don't just feel betrayed. They absolutely do. You look at the polling. There's absolutely a revolt from Latino voters against President Trump on the specific issue of immigration. This is what we're talking about. Look at this. Latinos on Trump and immigration. You go back to the fall of 2024. Donald Trump was more trusted than Kamala Harris with Latinos on immigration by five points. You come over to this side of the screen. Look at this net approval rating now that Donald Trump has with Latino voters.

3:17Way down under the Gulf of Mexico, if you're speaking Trumpanese, we're talking about the Gulf of America, but for everybody else, the Gulf of Mexico. Look at that. 39 points underwater. That is a ship, Kate Baldwin, of 40. What is that? 40. I don't do math. Yeah. 44 points. Thank you very much, Johnny B. 44 points. I'm not doing math this morning. Kate Baldwin's not doing that, but Johnny B is doing that. A shift of 44 points away from the president of the United States on the issue of immigration with Latinos, an absolute political disaster.

3:49Brian Tyler Cohen:And all of this comes on the heels of more bad news that Trump himself is contending with. A new poll from the American Research Group conducted September 16th through the 20th puts Trump's approval rating at 29%. That is below 30 % for the first time in either of his terms. To put that in perspective, according to Gallup's own presidential tracker, the last time any president's approval sat in the 20s was George W. Bush at the tail end of 2008 in the middle of a global financial collapse. That's the company Trump is now keeping. So why does this matter? Because the midterm elections are a referendum on the president and the party in power.

4:23Brian Tyler Cohen:And because the GOP has exactly zero daylight between it and the president, they get to be saddled with his unpopularity. It's almost like contracting every ounce of your power over to the executive branch might not have been such a great idea in retrospect. And look, none of this is a surprise. Remember, when Trump himself was asked why he won in the immediate aftermath of the 24 election, here's what he said. I won on two things, the border and more than immigration. You know, they like to say immigration. I break it down more to the border. But I won on the border and I won on groceries. It's a very simple word, groceries.

4:57Like almost, you know, who uses the word? I started using the word the groceries. when you buy apples, when you buy bacon, when you buy eggs, they would double and triple the price over a short period of time.

5:11Brian Tyler Cohen:And I want an election based on that. We're going to bring those prices way down because of high prices. And guess what? Those prices have only gone up. And yet all the while, he can't be bothered to do anything about it. So it's not that he's unaware of the problems that Americans are contending with. After all, he exploited those exact problems to gain power. He just doesn't care. And that really is the basis of his presidency. Trump, of all people, and the rest of his party know full well the pain that Americans are feeling because they all benefited from it in the 2024 election. But they've not only failed to address it, they have exacerbated it.

5:45Brian Tyler Cohen:Trump launched a trade war that sent costs surging and the rest of his party allowed him to do it. He launched a war in Iran that sent gas prices skyrocketing to record highs. And as late as Thursday, his party voted to allow that war to continue. And of course, Trump is in the Epstein files and instructed his attorney general to hide three million documents and the rest of his party won't say a peep about it. These people exist to serve one man. Not you, not me, not regular Americans, but Donald Trump. And Americans are responding appropriately. So look, while this is all good news, I'd be a fool not to end with this.

6:16Brian Tyler Cohen:Nothing is guaranteed in this upcoming election. First of all, we have Trump's interminable efforts to undermine voting rights ahead of the election, to send ICE agents to the polls. And of course, the broader Republican Party's refusal to accept any results where they don't win. And then, of course, there's the issue with polling, which we're no stranger to. And finally, you just don't know what can happen between now and Election Day. So our job is simple. No matter how bad the polling is for Trump and Republicans, act like we're 15 points down. Make yourself responsible for at least three people who otherwise wouldn't have voted.

6:46Brian Tyler Cohen:And let's put an effective end to Trump's presidency right now by flipping not just the House, but also the Senate into Democratic hands. Next up is my interview with California Attorney General Rob Bonta. No Lie is brought to you by ZocDoc. So I've always avoided making doctor's appointments because it is never easy. I just know that it's going to be a game of endless phone tag, only to finally call and find out that the next opening is months away. It's a fact of life that certain doctors are not available for a really long time, which is not great because generally when you're looking for a doctor, you're looking for one right away.

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8:06Brian Tyler Cohen:I'm joined now by the Attorney General of California, Rob Bonta. So we have some news here as it relates to the merger between Paramount and Warner Brothers. Can you give an update as to where things stand right now? Yeah, thanks, Brian, for having me. I appreciate it. We announced yesterday a resolution of the case and a filing with the court of a consent decree resolving our antitrust enforcement case with respect to the proposed Paramount Warner Brothers merger. And we announced the terms of the consent decree or the settlement yesterday, which resolve all of our antitrust concerns. We have solutions that are strong in each of the markets that we challenged.

8:48And we also were able to secure some very important domestic production commitments. And also there are some important commitments to the future of Hollywood and the entertainment industry in the United States broadly and in California specifically. So we announced the resolution of the case yesterday with all the different terms of that agreement. What do some of those terms actually look like in practice? Yeah, absolutely. So let's start with the antitrust terms, because this was a, as I said many times, a bread and butter, black and white, meat and potatoes antitrust case. And we challenged the merger based on the impacts it would have in basically two markets, one on theatrical release film distribution and two on cable channel licensing.

9:38And so we were able to get an agreement in this consent decree from Paramount to release 30 movies a year for two years and then followed by 32 movies per year for the next three years. So commitments over five years and 20 of those films in the first two years need to be a wide release distribution. And in the last three years, 21 films need to be wide release. There's a 20 % requirement for tentpole films, bigger films with bigger budgets. There's a requirement for the release of four independent films per year. So massive increases on release of films, which was one of our major markets. And then also we kept the payments, the fees, arrangements with the movie theaters, the the exhibitors, as we call them, fixed for three years so they can't raise prices.

10:38And so we are worried about this merger leading to raise prices for the exhibitors. Those were fixed for three years. We were worried about a potential lowering of the number of films released. That is kept at a high number at 30 and 32. So that's how we address that market. And then with the cable channel licensing market, we, in the settlement agreement, have an agreement for Paramount and Warner Brothers to negotiate separately, meaning they act as if after they're merged, just as if they were pre-merger as separate companies with respect to their basic cable channels and how they are able to bundle those and negotiate with the cable companies.

11:17And then both of those remedies that I just mentioned are backstopped by a structural remedy, a divestiture. If they fail to fulfill the requirements of the five-year film release goals, they need to divest Miramax and also pay for each film that they fail to release $30 million to a fund that 90 % of it goes to workers in the entertainment industry. And then on the cable channel licensing side, if they fail to negotiate separately, they have to divest a suite of cable channels, including BET and Comedy Central and others. So those are the basic provisions for how we addressed our antitrust concerns.

12:06And then we got additional domestic production concessions and commitments, including the merged company is going to spend$300 million a year for five years over what they've already spent in the past, what they spent in 2025 on domestic production. So focused on production in the United States to put American workers to work. That will increase in the following way if there are film tax credits. If there's a federal film tax credit, then instead of having about 5 % of their global film production occur domestically in the United States, they'll raise it to 20 % in years one and two and to 30 % of the federal film tax credit being in place for years three, four, and five.

12:51And then if California gets a film tax credit that's uncapped and competitive with the most competitive film tax credits in the nation, in other states, it'll go to 40 % domestic production. So there's a possibility of a 700 percent increase in domestic production with these film tax credits. So it's exciting for what is possible with respect to putting workers to work, creating jobs, really spurring the economy in Hollywood, in L.A., in California and in the United States. There's also a provision that addresses CBS News and CNN and creates a editorial independence board made up of experienced journalists to create a set of editorial standards.

13:42And this independent board will resolve any disputes between management and journalists over journalistic integrity, fact-based reporting, objective independent reporting. And so that's a provision of the settlement as well. There's others in addition to that, but those are some of the broad contours of the consent decree that we filed yesterday.

14:06Brian Tyler Cohen:So if we have this massive production commitment and the 30 films a year requirement, as you just mentioned, those come with financial penalties and some degree of unwinding certain assets if the commitments aren't met. But there's no provision, there's no mechanism within the deal to unwind the merger if they decide not to comply. And so if Paramount decides, you know, five years down the line that it's cheaper to eat the penalty than to honor these commitments, what actually stops them from doing it? Like, could this just be basically, you know, a line item cost in their budget that they just have to eat this penalty rather than rather than comply, knowing that ultimately everything is safe because there isn't a way to unwind what's actually been created here?

15:05Yeah, when that consent decree is filed and if they go forward to complete the merger, then it is difficult to unwind the whole merger. And so that's why the provisions that are in the consent decree are important, that the penalties are a very strong deterrent. So is the divestiture of Miramax to help ensure that they fulfill their release of film requirement. and there's also a requirement that of those 30 films, half of them be produced by the merged company. But the deterrent is in the backstop of the divestiture, the Miramax divestiture and the payments. Same thing with the divestiture of the cable channels.

15:54So we expect them to be complying with the requirements in the agreement and the way to enforce it is with the divestiture and the penalties, as well as we have an independent auditor, a monitor that will inspect the behavior of the merge company to ensure compliance. And if they flag anything that seems to be anything short of full compliance, then we can go to court to get court orders to require them to comply. And then they can be held in contempt if they don't.

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17:36Brian Tyler Cohen:Don't forget, there's no safe like SimpliSafe. So there have been some critics of the deal, including Mark Ruffalo, who have advocated for this deal or any deal to be rejected in favor of just going to court on antitrust grounds. And so what was behind the decision to settle with the Ellisons as opposed to trying your luck out in court and trying to prevent this from happening in the first place? I appreciate and respect and understand the opinion of Mr. Ruffalo and others who have similar opinions. I am grateful that there's so many people that are concerned and focused on this issue that are that are that are watching and thinking about it and some of the broader issues that it that it highlights.

18:29But I also say that, you know, there are broader questions around democracy, around oligarchy, around the free press, around foreign influence and other issues that we need to address as a nation and as states. And that cannot be resolved and would not be resolved by this case. This is an antitrust case against Paramount Warner Brothers, and it has specific antitrust concerns in three markets, two of which are theatrical release distribution and one of which is cable channel licensing. So the reason that we decided to resolve the case is because we were presented with solutions that were strong and that addressed the antitrust concerns we had in the markets that we challenged.

19:22And when you get a solution to the antitrust concerns in an antitrust case that is a bread and butter, black and white, meat and potatoes antitrust case, you take it. And I know there are some people who say, just take your chance at trial. And, you know, trial, of course, there's a crapshoot aspect to it. Nothing is guaranteed at trial. You can end up with absolutely nothing. And so I understand some people would rather do that than resolve the antitrust concerns in the way we did. And again, I appreciate and understand that perspective. But because this is a straight up antitrust case, when we had a solution to our antitrust concerns, we took it.

20:02And that's why we resolved the case as we did.

20:05Brian Tyler Cohen:So you had mentioned, we'll finish off with this, independent oversight boards being created between CBS and CNN. But this is, you know, an oversight board that's created by the company that's being merged. Boards like that generally have, you know, a shoddy track record in terms of their effectiveness and in terms of being able to constrain their own company. And so what teeth does the board have and who has the power to remove members or override members?

20:38So the editorial independence board, there are requirements about who can serve on it. And it's all journalists. It can't be anyone who's an officer or a director or a non-journalist or a government employee. It's journalists who've been credentialed for three years, who've served as journalists for 10 years minimum. So it's experienced journalists who are coming together to prepare a set of standard protocols, you know, independence, news independence standards. And then they resolve the disputes between management and the employees, should there be any. And we expect there to be a set of talented, experienced journalists with experience in journalistic integrity and, you know, fact-based, objective, fair reporting.

21:30And I think that an editorial independence board like this is not particularly common. So I think there's value and progress that it adds and makes to what's been happening at CBS News and for what will happen at CNN. And I think it's an important set of oversight mechanisms that exist in a case, which again is an antitrust case and is not about news. But we did have some attorneys general who were interested and concerned about objective, independent news reporting and journalistic integrity. And so we were able to, in the settlement process, which is you can be more creative than in the litigation process, we were able to add this.

22:28So, and again, I respect people's opinions about whether it will work or how effective it will be or how far it will go. I think it will provide important progress and an important value to help ensure that news organizations are telling the news objectively and fairly and based on facts.

22:50Brian Tyler Cohen:We'll leave it there. Attorney General Rob Bonta, thanks so much for taking the time. Thanks so much for having me. Good to see you again. Thanks again to Rob Bonta. That's it for this episode. Talk to you on Sunday. You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen. Produced by Sam Graber, music by Wellesley, and interviews edited for YouTube by Nicholas Nicotera. If you want to support the show, please subscribe on your preferred podcast app and leave a five-star rating and a review. And as always, you can find me at Brian Tyler Cohen on all of my other channels, or you can go to briantylercohen.com to learn more.