Republicans cave in Todd Blanche confirmation

0:00Brian Tyler Cohen:Todd Blanche issues an announcement to salvage his confirmation as Attorney General. And I've got two interviews, former Obama Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer and former National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen and you're listening to No Lie. So we have got a stunning new announcement from Todd Blanche, Donald Trump's embattled acting Attorney General, who's doing his level best to salvage his failed confirmation. He issued a statement saying, in part, the attorney general's May 18th, 2026 order establishing the anti-weaponization fund is rescinded and shall have no force or effect.

0:35Brian Tyler Cohen:OK, so here's what you need to know about this, and I'm going to try to simplify this as much as possible. Blanche's new order rescinds the implementation of the one point eight billion dollar slush fund, but not the overarching settlement agreement out of which the slush fund was born. In other words, the underlying settlement agreement itself is still intact, which is Which means that while this specific$1.8 billion slush fund goes away, there is nothing stopping Blanche or Trump from standing up a brand new slush fund five minutes after Blanche gets confirmed. Like if Blanche was looking to truly rescind the settlement agreement that the$1.8 billion slush fund was born out of, those terms can only be changed with a written agreement between the Trumps and the government.

1:17Brian Tyler Cohen:And this rescission order was signed only by Todd Blanche, not by Trump, not by his sons, not by the Trump organization. So if the settlement agreement needed to be rewritten, you would expect that Trump's side would have signed off on it, but they didn't because what got killed was just this specific fund mechanism, not the contract at the heart of the matter, meaning that the underlying settlement is still on the books. What's dead for now is just the particular$1.8 billion implementing structure. Whether Trump's team could push the DOJ to stand up a differently named or differently structured fund under that same settlement agreement is exactly why the whole thing is a farce.

1:55Brian Tyler Cohen:And yet, apparently, it being a farce is perfectly acceptable for John Cornyn and Tom Tillis. Those were the holdouts who demanded a written confirmation that none of this would go forward. And yet, even despite this flimsy offering by Todd Blanche, both Cornyn and Tillis decided to cave. Cornyn tweeted a statement basically saying that he was completely satisfied with this flimsy offering by Todd Blanche and that he and Tom Tillis were looking forward to advancing Blanche's nomination out of the Senate Judiciary Committee. That's going to happen on Tuesday morning. So my question to Cornyn and Tillis is this.

2:31Brian Tyler Cohen:Did you truly want this slush fund to go away or were you just looking to put up a pretend fight so that you could cosplay for a weekend as independent fighters? Cornyn knows that this fund is not dead because he himself questioned Blanche on this exact point at his confirmation hearing. He is fully aware that the settlement agreement isn't dead, only the specific fund itself, and that Trump can and will resurrect it the second he has the chance. So are Cornyn and Antilles okay with being rolled? And the answer is, as the answer always is, yes. Because as far as Republicans are concerned, you must always grovel at the feet of the God King, even if he himself is responsible for your demise.

3:09Brian Tyler Cohen:If you want to exist in this ecosystem after your time in office, you have to kiss the ring always and forever. So Cornyn and Tillis need to fold like cheap lawn chairs if they want to go on TV in the future or become lobbyists in the future or in any way stay in the good graces of this right-wing ecosystem. Meaning cowardice isn't some fluke. It is a feature of today's GOP. In fact, if you need proof that Trump has zero intention of letting this go, this is what he said after Todd Blanche's confirmation looked like it was dead. Is the$1.8 billion DOJ fund dead or is it on hold? it's uh i'd have to ask the lawyers i don't know i know one thing the weaponization are you talking about the weaponization fund the weaponization fund uh as far as i'm concerned was a beautiful thing it was something i was i i didn't make it but i was i heard that i thought that was the greatest thing because people like you have abused our people so badly the fake news like cnn like the New York Times and like others have abused our people.

4:11Brian Tyler Cohen:Wait a minute. Be quiet. Does that sound like a guy who has no intention of resurrecting the slush fund? Come on now. I mean, this is what Trump was saying even after Todd Blanche's confirmation hearing looked like it wasn't going anywhere. If ever there was a time for Trump to at least pretend that these people don't deserve to be paid out of a slush fund, it is at that moment. And yet even then Trump couldn't bring himself to just lie. You don't even have to think about this from a legal perspective. Just use common sense. That is not a man who has any intention of giving up on paying out violent insurrectionists who do his bidding.

4:42Brian Tyler Cohen:And that right there is the point. Trump and Blanche want this because it is their way to send a message to Trump supporters that you will not only not face consequences if you commit violence in his name on his behalf, you'll be rewarded, handsomely rewarded. You'll be pardoned and then paid. You will become a millionaire, as so many other Trump allies already have. He wants to create a permission structure to incentivize people to take matters into their own hands to help him consolidate power for himself. That is why it's so important to keep this fund in place. And that is why it's so disgusting, so disqualifying, that Cornyn and Tillis are so predictably folding and allowing this to happen.

5:20Brian Tyler Cohen:Words to live by? You will never lose money betting on the cowardice of today's GOP. Next up are my interviews with Dan Pfeiffer and Tommy Vitor. No Lie is brought to you by Shopify. Starting a business is a big deal, and even just taking the leap to decide to do it is a major step. What surprised me was how much simpler Shopify made it. All the tools you need to launch are already included and ready from day one. One of my favorite features, design plus launch. Shopify's templates and AI tools get you a stunning website up and running fast, no coding needed. You can create your storefront that actually reflects your business and your brand as opposed to just some standard fare that doesn't really reflect what you've built.

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6:34Brian Tyler Cohen:All you need is the idea. Shopify handles the rest. So if you're serious about hearing your first, start your free trial at Shopify.com slash BTC today. You heard that right. Start your free trial today at Shopify.com slash BTC. That's Shopify.com slash BTC. I'm joined now by the former communications director for Barack Obama and co-host of Podsafe America, Dan Pfeiffer. Dan, you wrote something that caught my attention in a pretty big way. I'm going to put it right here on the screen. If you're a Republican on the ballot, this is the number that should scare the shit out of you. And so what you were referring to was the fact that Trump's job approval among non-college white voters in 2018 was nine points in the positive.

7:16Brian Tyler Cohen:In 2020 was eight points in the positive. In 2025 was 24 points in the positive. Now that number as of July 2026 is negative eight points, eight points in the negative. So we're looking at a 32 point swing from just when Trump was elected two years ago. Talk to me about that number and why that number in particular was such an important metric for you to comment on. Sure. To give you one other stat with this, according to exit polling, Trump won that group of voters by 34 points. Like white, non-college educated voters, white working class voters are the core of MAGA. They are his base. They have been his most loyal voters.

7:52They're the ones who have stuck with him through two impeachments, an insurrection, mounds of corruption. And it seems like they are beginning to sour on him. And that has dramatic effects on what the MAGA coalition looks like, how big it is. But what would really worming with Republicans is these are the voters you have to turn out. And if they are not going to turn out, if they are not excited about Trump, if they are pissed at Trump, if they think they broke our promises, that is bad news for particularly Republicans in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, where white non-college educated voters make up a huge swath of the population.

8:27And Maine as well, Maine on that list.

8:28Brian Tyler Cohen:And so that's the point I want to dig into here, because this is Trump's approval rating. So how do you reconcile the correlation between Trump's approval rating and the other Republicans who are not named Donald Trump who are going to be on the ballot? I mean, do they get any leeway or is Trump's approval rating going to be directly correlated with how poorly his own party does? I mean, I suspect if Republicans on the ballot cannot outperform Trump's approval rating, which is 32 percent, then they're going to lose in every seat in the country, basically. Yes, they will outperform Trump. But the way to think about it is every point that Trump's approval rating goes down, particularly among this group, the white non-college educated voters who make up his base, that is more of an anvil on the shoulders of these republics.

9:17It makes it harder for them to win. They are swimming upstream against it. And so an unpopular Trump and a Trump who's like there's a world in which Trump's, you know, is at 37, 38. But the bulk of it is independents, Democrats, some of these 20, these voters who will vote in presidential elections and not vote in midterms. This group right here, these are the people, these white non-college educated voters are the ones he needs to turn out and they're unhappy with him right now.

9:42Brian Tyler Cohen:Well, you know, the irony of this is like you look at one of the most criticized moments of Kamala Harris's campaign. It was on The View. She was asked what she would do differently than Joe Biden. She refused to break with him on anything. She refused to even put forward one single idea that she broke on him with. And so, you know, in effect, Biden's unpopularity became her her unpopularity because she refused to put any space between them. Now Republicans are falling for the exact same phenomenon where, you know, they have refused to serve as a check against him on anything except for, you know, John Cornyn and and Tom Tillis, both of whom don't have a job after this term.

10:18Brian Tyler Cohen:But the rest of them have have hugged him. They haven't run away from him. And so in a way, even after having watched Kamala Harris fall, fall for this exact phenomenon, they're doing the same. They're repeating her mistake in this election cycle where his unpopularity is weighing all of them down. it's it's interesting because the dynamics are both similar and different right where these republicans on the ballot are dealing with an unpopular president of their own party kamala harris was dealing with an unpopular president of our party now kamala harris outran joe biden's popularity by you know 15 points or so um he was in the maybe about maybe about 10 10 to 11 points i guess it's probably where biden was at the end yeah and some of these Republicans will outrun Trump by at least that.

11:00The reason why they're in a bigger pickle than Harris was is that Biden was, there was not a ton of strong enthusiasm for Biden among Democratic voters. She had a freedom to break with him that these Republicans feel like they do not have because there are a couple, when you look at polls, you can cut these in several ways, right? You can do it by education and race, like we're talking about here. Another way to do it is you You get the Republican sample and you say, do you consider yourself a member of the MAGA movement or not? MAGA voters still love Trump. His numbers are in the 80s with them.

11:32Now, that group is getting smaller as people are leaving that group. But the problem for Republicans is they need those quote unquote MAGA voters to turn out for them. And if they come, if they break with Trump, he will punish them publicly in a way they could further diminish turnout against their base. They really are in a situation. I imagine in 2024, Kamala Harris could have broken with Biden on some issues like Gaza or the border or inflation, and it would not have affected Democratic turnout in any measurable way. I think here these Republicans are really weighing what to do. You stick with Trump, you pay the price with swing voters and soft Republicans.

12:09You break with Trump, you pay the price with turnout MAGA voters, and there's no good answer there for them.

12:14Brian Tyler Cohen:Why now? Why are we seeing this exodus away from MAGA at this point after all of the depraved shit that's happened at the hands of this president and this administration? I mean, we have seen endless, endless corruption. We saw, you know, obviously the January 6th insurrection, the self-dealing. We saw a first term where COVID was handled abominably, where the only legislative priority was a tax cut that disproportionately favored millionaires and billionaires. He's never been a populist, even though he's claimed he has. But why this moment in particular are we finally seeing some people get fed up and leaving the coalition?

12:49It's prices. Inflation and high prices has been the driving force in American politics for five years now. It is why Biden's numbers went down. It's why Trump got a second chance at the presidency. And it's why Trump's numbers are going down now. And it's particularly magnified because of the war in Iran, which everyone thinks is stupid and wants to be over. and makes Trump look weak and at the mercy of events instead of in control of events, and it's forcing gas prices up. And so when prices go up, Trump's numbers go down, and that's where we are.

13:22Brian Tyler Cohen:So I guess the flip side of that question is recognizing that there are fractures for the first time in his coalition. Why is Trump acting this way? Why does he continue to engage in a war that's just killing himself and his party? Why does he continue to suppress? Well, I mean, I know why he continues to express the Epstein files, but but the broader point, why does he continue to commit these these actions and engage in behaviors that is that is so aggressively unpopular that it's taking people who were diehard MAGA voters and supporters for the last decade and driving them away? I think he does not care about the midterms.

13:59I think he ideally he would like to win the midterms. I think he somewhere deep in his soul dreads the investigations that will come. Yeah. But he is unable or unwilling to do the things that would at least improve the chances of Republicans. He probably can't get out of this war in any terms that work for him. Right. He has no magic levers to pull that will lower prices. I mean, he could stop raising them by putting tariffs in place.

14:27Brian Tyler Cohen:I mean, couldn't he just end the war tomorrow and pull out? Yeah, he would have to suffer the indignity and embarrassment of a war that America isn't winning. But is it any worse than the continued pain that he's enduring and that the rest of America is enduring by virtue of continuing it? I feel like I'm swimming in Tommy Vitor and Ben Rhodes' pool right now. But I think the challenge for Trump is if America were to say we're stopping bombing now, Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah. And as long as Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, something I will note, they did not control before this.

15:00Right. that is going to affect oil prices. If we gave up and we stopped bombing, would oil futures go down and maybe there'd be some gas relief, price relief? Maybe. But all it takes, and there's like this asymmetric nature of this war, which is all it takes is one missile or drone from Iran to hit a ship or threaten a ship, and that will once again slow traffic to a trickle. He has no real ability absent a massive ground invasion of Iran to regain control of the strait in a real way. And so he's stuck, at least for the time being, in a world of oil prices much higher than they were before this war started.

15:41Could they condam a little bit? Might that help him on the margins? Maybe, but the fundamental dynamics are what they are, and they're going to be that way for a while now.

15:49Brian Tyler Cohen:But there are domestic priorities too. I mean, him sacrificing the prospect of Todd Blanche becoming his attorney general because he wouldn't offer in writing an end to some of these egregiously unpopular policies, like giving himself protection from audits for him and his family. This$1.8 billion slush fund that's so corrupt, even Republicans aren't willing to stomach it. Like even right now, he's continuing to fight this stuff in the courts, won't offer any written confirmation that this fund is actually dead. These are easy wins for him to do. And yet even on this stuff, he's not relenting.

16:27Yeah, no, he is thoroughly self-obsessed and megalomaniacal. Like he can't get out of his own way here. And, you know, all the things he's doing, like whether it's, you know, obsessing about the reflecting pool, the arch to Trump that he wants to build, the putting his name on the Kennedy Center, the ballroom, all of that stuff. Each individual thing is doesn't matter to voters that much. Like they think it's probably stupid. They, you know, if there's taxpayer dollars, they don't want to waste it on that. But what they all do together is they tell a story about the things that Trump cares about besides helping you, besides lowering your prices.

17:07These are the things he is doing. The war is the biggest one, but all this other dumb stuff that seems like it shouldn't matter, it matters to him. Because the thing that I tell every Democratic politician I talk to is the way to think about this is everything's an affordability issue. The Epstein files and him fighting about the stupid top-landish thing is an affordability issue because that's what Trump's doing when instead of doing something to help you or even talking about how much he wants to help you. He's talking about things that you do not care about that affect him.

17:36Brian Tyler Cohen:It's about him, not you. So the way I've thought about this is the fact that Trump continues to engage in this behavior and do these things is really just, you know, there's one part of me that's like, oh, he's clearly given up on the midterms. But I think that he's given up on the midterms in a different way. He's given up on the midterms in terms of trying to win them on the merits, but he hasn't given up on the midterms in terms of trying to just rig the rules of the game in his favor. That's why he's expending all of his political capital not on signing the housing bill or dropping this absurd idea of the slush fund or the protection from audits, but instead trying to pass the Save America Act.

18:14Brian Tyler Cohen:I mean, he was literally willing to exploit the corpse of Lindsey Graham and be like, the last thing he said to me on the phone was that he wanted the Save America Act passed. So clearly this is a priority for him. Do you view this as the same way as he's done trying to win the midterms on the merits, but is now throwing all of his weight behind just trying to win them in a different way by rigging the rules of the midterms in his favor? It's just hard to know what actual information and data Trump has about how bad his political position is. You know, his MAGA PAC has$400 million in the bank.

18:47There was reports this week they're going to start deploying that money to help Ken Paxton in Texas. So there are some things happening on the margins. If Trump can steal the midterms, he will steal the midterms. I want to remind you, that's a much harder prospect than I think he wants people to know. Like even put it, let's say he signed the SAVE Act tomorrow, right? Senate ends the filibuster. They pass it. House passes it. Goes to Trump. He signs it. one, almost impossible to implement before the midterms. Right. Two, and even more important than that, almost certainly hurts Republicans more than Democrats because of the people most likely to have a passport or the birth certificate on hand are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans.

19:27And so he's just, he's kind of just focused on himself, casting about, spending most of his time on making monuments to himself and lining his pockets and the rest of it's kind of noise.

19:38Brian Tyler Cohen:So this is a question kind of going to To what you just mentioned about the financial advantage that Republicans had, it's a question that I explored a little bit with Tommy on Thursday. But, you know, we found out that Elon Musk's PAC is going to donate between 100 and 120 million dollars. Obviously, there's a massive disparity in terms of what the RNC has versus what the DNC, I would say, has but doesn't have. Yes, exactly. How are you thinking about the financial advantage and the impact that that's going to have? And I asked this question on the backdrop of the fact that we're in this cycle right now where Republicans have this financial advantage right now.

20:13Brian Tyler Cohen:And yet in the off year elections, in the in the special elections and in polling, Democrats have continued to enjoy, you know, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 point overperformance from 2024, even amid this backdrop of the financial disparity. So I think there are a couple of things going on here. The and it's worth noting that Democratic candidates themselves are massively out-raising Republican candidates. And candidate dollars go much further than Super PAC dollars, because at least when you're talking about television ads, TV stations are legally required to charge candidates the lowest available rate.

20:52They can gouge the living daylights out of Super PACs. So one television ad from a campaign, you know, like John Ossoff, Roy Cooper, Sherrod Brown, Mary Patoller, all massively out-raising their Republican opponents. I mean, James Tallarico has like over the hundred billion dollars. James Tallarico just raising money like you can't even imagine. Yeah. And so one, in terms of dollars, depending on the market, one ad from James Tallarico is going to be worth three. They're going to have to basically pay two to three times what Tallarico is paying for ads. Now, the fact that Republicans have more money means they're going to be, we are not going to be able to force them to make real decisions about where to run.

21:30They can probably spend all the money they need in Maine, all the money they need in North Carolina. Maybe they'll spend money in church. I don't know, but they're just going to be able to, it's going to be harder to sneak one past them. We're not, by being competitive in as many places as we are, Republicans will have the money to spend to do that. Like that is a real consequence of the fact that Democratic large donors are not giving, not just the DNC, but to the DSCC and the DCCC at the same rate the Republican donors are giving to the Republican version of those committees. All right.

22:04Brian Tyler Cohen:I want to end with one last question. I'm not going to ask you to predict anything, but I am going to ask for it. Good, good, good. Given this moment, a snapshot in time, would you rather be the Democrats or the Republicans in the House and the Senate? I would almost certainly rather be the Democrats. Democrats are in an incredibly well-positioned. The Republicans have a very narrow majority. Trump is very unpopular. We have some very good candidates. And this includes, by the way, the Senate, not just the House. That's how I feel about the House. I'd rather be the Democrats than the Republicans, for sure.