Trump's FATAL mistake with Venezuela invasion

0:00Donald Trump's massive Venezuela mistake paves the way for China to finally dominate the US once and for all. And I've got four interviews. Biden's deputy national security advisor, John Feiner, and Obama's National Security Council spokesman, Tommy Vitor, both discuss Venezuela. Senator Mark Kelly responds to beat Hegseth, who's attempting to demote him. And Adam Klasfeld talks about Nicolas Maduro's arraignment in New York. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. All right, so this is our first Wednesday episode. So thanks to everybody for tuning in. We're going to be doing midweek episodes for the rest of the year.

0:33We're just a few days out now from Donald Trump's decision to basically signal a green light to all big countries across the globe that we're entering a second imperialist era. Trump has obviously announced that he's taking control of Venezuela. He's threatened to do the same with Colombia and Cuba, along with a refusal to rule out military intervention to take control of Greenland. And I'm sure the next shot across the bow is going to be against against Panama. And that's not far behind. But think for a moment about the downstream effects of this. So, OK, we take control of a few South American countries for oil.

1:05Few problems there. Like, for example, the fact that the U.S. is already one of the world's biggest oil exporting countries. So it's not like allowing our oil companies to seize oil in Venezuela will finally allow us to be energy independent for the first time. Also, the oil doesn't just flood the United States. It goes to American companies, but they sell oil on the global market. And even if more oil on the global market means that prices will fall, OPEC will probably just restrict supply, which are going to send prices back up. And finally, it's not like any of this happens right away. This takes years to set up the infrastructure to extract the oil if those companies even opt to do it in the first place.

1:42So, OK, not exactly a home run, but now think about the implications for a country like China. We're back in the imperialist era. China sets its sights on Taiwan. If they take over that country, that means they consolidate basically the entire global semiconductor industry and they can limit what the United States has access to, which means that our GDP is suddenly in the hands of our main adversary. They also take full control of key sea and air routes in the Indo-Pacific, effectively rendering the U.S. impotent militarily in that part of the world. And that solidifies China's ascent to the controlling force there.

2:18In other words, because Trump wants to embark in imperialism 2.0 so that he can feel big and powerful, we get access to oil that we don't need. and we double down on a dying form of energy. And at the same time, our main adversary, China, gets access to technology that the whole world needs that powers the technology of the future. Trump is basically handing the future of the world to Xi Jinping on a silver platter. And what's worse, the goons in the GOP know better. No one does more complaining about China than those people. And yet now, miraculously, they got nothing to say when Trump is setting up a scenario where China basically owns the future, all because they're too cowardly to say one ill word of the God King.

2:57These people would rather put their own careers over the economic and national security of the United States for themselves and their children. A party of narcissists and morons and cowards. And the saddest part is that there's no reason for this other than A, Trump's ego and B, making Trump's donors richer. Remember, back during the campaign, he promised his oil executive friends that if they gave him a billion dollars, he'd give them a great deal. Well, this is the deal. They get Venezuela and the money that comes with it and Trump gets their continued campaign donations and the rest of us get to watch China eat our lunch as they dominate the world and the future, all because the president and his party were too stupid or too greedy to get out of their own way.

3:37All of which is why it could not be more essential to have a check on this runaway administration. Midterms are this year, and given the fact that Trump could sell off all of the Republicans' firstborns and they wouldn't say a word, we need Democrats in control to serve as a check against this White House. The work to flip the House and the Senate starts now, so make sure your people are paying attention. Next up are my interviews with John Feiner, Tommy Vitor, Mark Kelly, and Adam Klasfeld. No Lie is brought to you by OneSkin, so I'm over the whole new year, new me thing. Short-term fads do not deliver long-term results.

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5:17And for a limited time, OneSkin is making it even easier to stay consistent with up to 30 % off your first three subscription orders when you use code BTC at oneskin.co slash BTC. Again, that's 30 % off with code BTC. After you purchase, they'll ask where you heard about them. Please support this show and tell them we sent you. I'm joined now by the Deputy National Security Advisor from the Biden administration, John Feiner. John, thanks for joining me. Great to be back. So here's my question right off the top. It seems kind of counterintuitive to me that somebody like Donald Trump who understands pretty intimately how media narratives are woven, why he would engage in in basically a regime change war when his whole administration is predicated on this idea of America first, of discarding the neocon policies of the Bush era, and then basically just to do a Bush redux right here by going into by going into South America to do regime change for oil.

6:12Yeah, I have to say it confounds me a bit, too. for those of us who were a bit concerned for a whole range of reasons about what Trump might be like on foreign policy in a second term. The one thing that was somewhat reassuring to us was that he has this inherent squeamishness about the use of force. And by the way, that's not a bad thing. This is the most kind of solemn, sacred, consequential decision a president can make, putting troops in harm's way and frankly, taking the lives of people in other countries. It should be taken seriously. It should be done rarely. But President Trump in his first year has now attacked three countries.

6:49The United States has never bombed before and now capped it off, as you say, with what was sort of the cardinal sin for the MAGA supporters of Trump foreign policy, which is a regime change war along the lines of what the Bush administration did in Iraq. And he doubled down on that by saying, we are now in charge. We are running Venezuela and continuing to make threats of sending troops in and even doing more. So there's a lot still to come here. Can you explain to me why, if this was in any way about helping the people of Venezuela, which of course is some very tepid excuse offered up by the Trump administration, why he would leave in place the rest of his regime that was apparently so disqualifying that it required the U.S.

7:33to go in and extract the president? Yeah, it's interesting. There have been this sort of shifting set of rationales for why they had to do this. Initially, when the administration started bombing the civilian boats that they say are carrying drugs, and frankly, I have no reason to believe that or disbelieve that because they presented no evidence, but they say they're carrying drugs, and they said that was the reason we needed this buildup of what he called an unprecedented armada in the Caribbean to start to threaten Venezuela. Then the rationale shifted quite quickly to actually the need to enforce a criminal warrant against the president of Venezuela only, President Maduro, even though there are many other people involved in drug trafficking in that country, which, by the way, is not a major source of drugs that come to the United States.

8:17But just leave that aside. The drug rationale fell off. Then the Maduro rationale sort of fell off. And now he's saying, actually, this is about getting access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves for American energy companies, which is kind of an infamously bad reason to go to war, actually, that I think most people would be embarrassed to say out loud. And that seems to be what they're hanging their hat on. Well, I mean, doesn't that just kind of basically signal or broadcast to the world that we're entering a second era of imperialism, where if you're big enough, if you have enough military might, then you can pilfer the natural resources of smaller countries to defend themselves?

8:54Yeah, his sort of defining worldview from the minute he came to office has basically been, we, the United States, are big and powerful, and we can and should be able to do what we want. And by the way, not just to countries we don't like, but to our own friends and allies, too. We will push them around. We will coerce them. We will extract things from them. And by the way, the countries that actually like this sort of worldview and this sort of approach are our adversaries and are stronger adversaries, frankly, than countries like Venezuela. adversaries like China and Russia that kind of want a free hand in their own neighborhoods too, the way Trump is claiming he should have a free hand in the Western Hemisphere for the United States.

9:32So I worry a lot, not just about what's happening in Venezuela, but about what this means for the negotiations going on about the end to the Ukraine war and what he will give away to Russia on the same theory that this is their backyard, about how Chinese will think about the credibility of our deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, in Asia, particularly when it comes to Taiwan, if this is a president who says, really, what I care about is my own hemisphere. You know, we have seen a lot of instances, and it's almost kind of surprised me as somebody who got into politics in the last 10 years, but it's always so surprising how when a president goes to a foreign country, there is this sense of sovereign immunity, that diplomatic immunity, whatever it may be, where they're safe wherever they go.

10:14But if it becomes the new precedent in the world where we can pluck foreign leaders who are adversaries to our administration out of their country and into courtrooms. Couldn't the same be said of a country that doesn't like Donald Trump, for example, that wants to pluck him out of the United States or wherever he may be and have him stand trial in their own respective countries? Absolutely. And even if maybe it's not realistic for countries to actually get to Trump, the way that the Trump administration is treating, again, Again, civilian vessels, not warships, even if they are criminals who are trafficking drugs in the Caribbean, implicitly at least, or maybe even explicitly, gives other countries the right to treat civilians who could be American, who could be civilians from allied countries in other parts of the world who they say are criminals.

11:02Remember, Vladimir Putin believes that President Zelensky of Ukraine is a criminal and that the Ukrainians have committed criminal acts against Russia. And there is nothing stopping him from invoking this same rationale or other countries invoking this same rationale to target our civilians. So I worry a lot about that. The other thing, by the way, that I think is worth putting on the table to worry about going forward is because of the incredible skill and capability of our military, which I saw up close when I was in government. And it's something that is truly remarkable to behold. They pulled off this operation, but it gives you the impression that it was actually relatively easy or low risk.

11:41And it was not. Sending special forces into the heart of a densely populated capital to grab the head of state of a foreign country is an incredibly high risk mission. And I worry that they will draw the lesson that we can do this kind of thing anytime we want and pay very little price for it. And there is no guarantee that that will be the case the next time as good as our people are. What does it say that Trump basically just swatted away the idea of the opposition leader, Maria Corchado, assuming power, given the fact that, you know, A, she had dedicated her Nobel Peace Prize to him. And obviously, that doesn't buy you a lot of goodwill, apparently.

12:18But B, if the whole pretext for this thing, you know, as you spoke about before was this hostility against the Maduro regime to then just leave the Maduro regime in place sans Maduro himself. I mean, can you just speak about the fact that he rebuffed very, very easily and very quickly this idea of the opposition leader being the one to take power? Yeah, look, there were two really incredible moments in the president's first press conference where he had the opportunity to sort of frame what the United States had done for the American people, to put it in the best possible light, best possible context.

12:52But he said two things that dramatically undermine that. One, as we've already talked about, that the United States is now running or in charge of Venezuela, which means he now quite clearly owns the consequences of everything that goes forward from here since we are ostensibly in charge. And then the second is what you just pointed to, which is the most defensible reason to want to put pressure on the Maduro regime was to want democracy for the people of Venezuela, to want them to live under a better government than they have had to suffer. Because, by the way, Maduro is a terrible leader, a terrible person who has committed untold number of crimes against his own people.

13:28We should want him gone. But to do that by force and to own the consequences of that suggests we should want him gone and replaced by something better. And that does not seem to be Trump's goal. He basically said Marina Machado, Nobel laureate, by the way, Nobel Peace Prize winner from just this past year, does not really have the popular support in Venezuela to govern. her ally Edmundo Gonzalez, who actually won the 2024 Venezuela election. Our administration, the Biden administration, recognized him as the winner of that election. So he has a popular mandate. President Trump said, no, probably not, not somebody who can govern either.

14:02So we will deal with essentially Maduro's deputy, now acting president, a woman named Elsie Rodriguez, who is as much the old regime as you can be, as much as Maduro in many ways. And do you presume that the only reason for that is she was going to be compliant enough in terms of giving him carte blanche a clear runway to to basically usurp all of their um you know oil resources natural resources as as uh as he wants to take that seems to be what they're betting on that she will see the writing on the wall she will hear the threats they by the way are continuing to make yeah you know they said if she doesn't do uh his bidding essentially she will pay a bigger price uh than maduro almost uh seeming to to maybe even threaten her life but certainly threatened to go in and grab her the way they grabbed Maduro, and that she will do what Trump is asking for, which is give us, the United States and our oil companies, access to Venezuela's reserves.

14:52And remains to be seen whether she will be compliant in that way. She's a survivor. She's a savvy operator, but she is an old guard, you know, Chavista, Maduro ally. And so it's not going to be easy for her to work with the United States. And that is going to be a fine line to walk and putting pressure on her from the outside. Because remember, we're not in Venezuela. We don't have a large number of troops in Venezuela. So Trump has kind of set a bit of a trap for himself. He makes these threats from the outside. Either she complies or if she doesn't, it sort of means he's got to up the ante, more military action, maybe more U.S.

15:27forces on the ground. And then we are into quagmire territory that I don't think any Americans really support. John, last question here. To what extent do you think that Trump's campaign promise to oil executives when he asked for a billion dollars in exchange for a deal. Do you think that this is the quo to that quid pro quo, that this is him making good on his promise and basically paying back these oil executives who donated so much to his campaign that now he's basically saying, look, you know, you wanted you wanted, you know, something in return for all that money. Here is the country of Venezuela.

16:02Well, on the one hand, I guess what I would say is I don't know is the honest answer. I don't have any evidence to suggest that that is what is happening here. But on the other hand, I think it's important to point out that given the way this administration has operated over the last year, they do not get the benefit of the doubt on those sorts of questions, questions that allege that maybe corruption or domestic politics are behind their foreign policy, just given how many examples have already been unearthed by enterprising reporters and others of them doing exactly that. So I think time will tell, the truth will eventually come out.

16:32I don't have the goods on that question, But I think it is incumbent on the administration to demonstrate otherwise, given how they've operated so far. John, for folks who want to hear more from you, where can they go? Well, start of the podcast. It's called The Long Game. I co-host it with Jake Sullivan on Vox Media, and we'll be digging into this this week. And then we publish every Friday. Awesome. I'm going to put the link to that podcast right here on the screen and also in the post description of this video. John Feiner, thanks so much for taking the time. Appreciate it. Thanks, Brian. No Lie is brought to you by Huel.

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18:16Huel makes healthy eating simple. They also just launched again in Target stores nationwide. Try both products today with 15 % off your purchase for new customers with my exclusive code BTC at www.huel.com slash BTC. That's H-U-E-L.com slash BTC. Use my code and fill out the post checkout survey to help support this show. I'm joined now by the co-host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World and President Obama's National Security Council spokesman, Tommy Vitor. Tommy, thanks for joining me. Hey, Brian, good to see you. So we have some new news here in the aftermath of the Venezuela invasion, and that is Greenland now seems to be back on the table and not just in, you know, the way that we've been speaking about it thus far.

18:56This has been confirmed by the White House. The White House offered up a statement that said, quote, President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it's vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal. And of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the commander in chief's disposal. So it seems like not only are they thinking about, you know, continuing. And so not only are they thinking about going into Greenland, but using the U.S.

19:27military to do it. So first and foremost, you know, the legality here of using the U.S. military to basically invade a fellow NATO signatory. Yeah, they're threatening to invade a NATO ally, which, I mean, look, I initially when people were talking about this, I think the kind of conversation was tinged with the assumption that Trump was trolling or just kidding around, right? Like, no, he is clearly deadly serious. And I think he has gotten more serious about this in the wake of the Maduro operation, because he feels like, you know, he got universal praise for that. He looked decisive, he could use the military to kind of, you know, bend the world to his will.

20:05So now he wants Greenland, and he's going to take it. And so, you know, the stakes for NATO and just sort of like the, the international order are massive, like the Danish prime minister said the following, quote, the international community is we know it, democratic rules of the game, NATO, the world's strongest defensive alliance, all of that would collapse if one NATO country chose to attack another. There was a joint statement earlier today from France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the UK, and Denmark, making a similar point that like it is up to Denmark and the people of Greenland to decide who governs that territory.

20:40But Trump is basically threatening to invade them. I mean, this is, we are through the looking glass, man. This is like truly unprecedented, scary stuff. And so I'm going to ask a question that I presume you're not going to be able to answer because of the fact that it is unprecedented. But isn't the whole point of NATO that if you invoke Article 5, if you attack one, you attack all. If the U.S. decides to invade a NATO ally, then does that mean that the rest of NATO is required to then come to Denmark or Greenland's defense and basically push back against the United States? Yeah. I mean, I think like we're in a place where it's just I don't think anyone's ever imagined a scenario where NATO attacks itself.

21:21So I think in practice what happens is the organization, the alliance just collapses and it ceases to exist because the United States military and its capabilities are the backbone of NATO. There's no disaggregating the two of them. You know, I mean, like, you know, the American generals are serving at NATO headquarters. I mean, it's just like we're fully integrated. NATO uses all U.S. kit. I mean, it's just it's unimaginable how this would work. But yeah, I mean, what we're talking about is a scenario where the U.S. attacks NATO. NATO invokes Article 5 and then the United States, according to the charter, we have to attack ourselves in defense of us.

21:57I mean, it's logically insane. And so what does this do to the global order then, the post-World War II global order, where large countries like the U.S., like Russia, like China are prevented from making good on their imperial, territorial, imperialistic ambitions and instead the floodgates kind of open? Yeah. I mean, what's so crazy about this, Brian, is, you know, one thing Trump seems very proud of is that he has spent lots and lots of time browbeating NATO countries to spend more on their own defense. And he claims he's reinvigorated NATO. But it seems like through this move, through an effort to take Greenland, he could collapse the entire organization, which, you know, I guess we end up in a world we were in before World War I and World War II, where big, powerful countries had spheres of influence and they ruled those areas.

22:50I mean, clearly, clearly what Trump wants, and this was articulated in his national security strategy that came out last year, is for the United States to dictate all things in the Western hemisphere that he cares about. It seems like he kind of doesn't care if the Russians take parts of Ukraine. Obviously, he doesn't care at all. He seems like he doesn't care if they take other, you know, maybe if they harass other countries in Europe. And it seems like that would be what happens next year if NATO no longer exists. And then there's an open question of like, OK, does that mean China gets to control Asia?

23:22What happens if they take Taiwan? What happens if the Chinese, you know, try to take an island that is contested by Japan, which is a treaty ally of ours? So we get into some like very scary scenarios. Well, the problem with that, and this is something I discussed with John Feiner, who is President Biden's deputy national security advisor, problem with that is if we open the floodgates and basically, you know, reintroduce like a second imperial moment in the world. okay, so we're able to go into Venezuela where we might have access to oil that may or may not produce and would take dozens of years for any results to actually come to bear.

24:04Or we get Greenland, which again is the same scenario. We already have treaties with Denmark and Greenland, so we can partner with them regardless without having to invade them. But if the floodgates are open and then China takes over Taiwan, that's way better for China. China drives way more benefit on their end than the United States would derive on our end. So aren't we just giving a permission structure for our actual biggest ally to basically completely overtake us in the technology of tomorrow so that we can double, triple, quadruple down on the technology of yesterday? Yeah, there's a couple of things about this that make no sense.

24:44The point you just made is a very important one, which is Trump wants to get, you know, some, you know, kind of relatively small amount of additional oil out of Venezuela, which I guess maybe in three, four, five, 10 years could make gas prices a little bit cheaper, but it's not guaranteed, right? I mean, gas prices or oil prices are pretty low right now. In the past, when there's oversupply, OPEC countries will just reduce their production to keep prices high. So God only knows what it'll actually. And by the way, like those, our oil companies don't just, we don't have state run oil companies.