A Historic El Niño Is Coming That Could Cost the World Trillions

24:10Then there's the E-index, which is taking a dimension reduction technique on a spatial field and collapsing it to say these are kind of the dominant directions of variability in that field. And that E-index would kind of represent something differently in the sense that El Nino, while we think of it as a singular phenomenon, it has a geography associated with it. And that geography means that it has flavors associated with it. And so these flavors mean that different parts of the tropical Pacific warm differently and look anomalously different. And so not every El Nino is the same. And so its consequences in terms of the hazard it brings for the United States or for hurricane occurrence in the Atlantic Basin or whatever, right?

25:00It's not the same for every El Nino event. The spatial pattern of the sea surface temperature anomalies also seems to matter. And so there's been a lot of work on kind of diagnosing these different flavors of El Nino and the E-index is intended to try to capture some of that. So there are lots of different ways for measuring it, but it's always a sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius benchmark to some expectation or average of normal. So one of the things that Joe and I have learned in doing various agricultural episodes over the years is that when you have a supply shock, the timing matters, right?

25:36So you generally don't want to declare war in the spring planting season when all your soldiers might be off planting stuff instead. Does the timing of this particular El Nino matter? I keep reading that the peak of this El Nino is expected to be in the fall in the Northern Hemisphere. Is that particularly unfortunate timing? You know, there's been a lot of work that looks, you know, the planting and harvest of crops tends to be something that is highly calendar dependent. And there's a bit of flexibility that I think farmers have to be responsive to their expectations for weather variability.

26:14And certainly ag forecasts have become important and agriculture at large has become really dependent on El Nino forecasts. The thing about El Nino is that it does typically peak in December, January, and February. So this is kind of the boreal, meaning the northern hemisphere winter. And that has implications for the austral summer, right, for the southern hemisphere summer, which is in the opposite season. And also there's also kind of a time dependency associated with the impact. So let me just concretize this with an example. We've been in an El Nino advisory since June. That's also coincident with the typical onset of the South Asian monsoon, which is a determinant of feast or famine for billions of people.

26:58Right. You can link monsoon onset to, you know, farmer well-being and farmer suicides. You can link the timing of monsoon onset to diesel prices within India and the political fates of people around diesel subsidies, because if the monsoon onset is delayed, you have a bunch of farmers suddenly needing to irrigate crops where they otherwise wouldn't have had to. And that that irrigation is dependent on the generators that rely on diesel fuel. And so you can see price spikes around those types of things and the political fortunes of like municipal and kind of local politicians kind of surviving or not surviving in elections based on those kinds of things.

27:47So there's like lots of cascading ways in which an El Nino, even at this early stage in its life cycle, which tends to kind of start after what we call the spring prediction barrier, which is kind of this period in time where it's difficult to make a prediction about whether or not an El Nino is going to occur to next February. So we're looking at kind of a wind down of this event in February, March of 2027. What's interesting about it is that it's going to lock in all sorts of phenomena. You know, 2026 has a non-trivial chance of being the warmest year on record, not simply because of global warming, but because of this emerge in El Nino.

28:29So it is already kind of just increasing global temperatures over what they would have been in absence of this event. And it's nearly locked in a virtually guaranteed record temperature for 2027, even though we haven't actually had that year unfold yet. It's no coincidence that the hottest years on record have almost always been El Nino years, right? When you take a warming trend and then you impose an anomaly on top of that, you're just going to get these outliers. And so these impacts are arguably already manifesting. So the South Asian monsoon was delayed. That onset was delayed by this El Nino.

29:08And so while the kind of major teleconnections and the peak strength associated with this event is anticipated to be in the winter, which is typically the case associated with El Ninos and just kind of the life cycle associated with them, its impacts are manifesting now and will continue to manifest into 2027.

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31:17Tracy Alloway:Like I said, up until your first answer in this interview, I didn't know what an El Nino really was. But that certainly doesn't mean I've never said it or read it before. You know, I used to be on TV. You have a guest. He was like, oh, the upcoming El Nino. Joe is joking his beard, pontificating about the El Nino. Yes. But it always seems like a sort of cyclical thing. It's like, OK, it hits every few years and there's some costs and then it goes back to normal. But if there are whole books about the long term consequences of any given El Nino, it sounds like at least in some serious ones, there can be quite a tale, quite a ripple effects.

31:59Tracy Alloway:When you go back and look at maybe some of the more recent big El Ninos that we had, I think you mentioned there was one in the early 80s. How do you think about like tallying up? I don't know what the what the global economy, the price, the global economy paid for it. Yeah, such a good question. I want to call out a key collaborator that I've had in this work, Chris Callahan, who's a professor at Indiana University, and just a stellar, stellar scholar. I couldn't have asked for a better PhD student to get to think about these hard things with. So Chris had been thinking about El Nino and its kind of projection uncertainty in other contexts, meaning what is the future of El Nino look like in a world with global warming and how to how to understand that just be given that it's such an important part of year to year variation, weather and climate globally.

32:53And it's essentially unknowable, right? It's very hard to know what El Nino is going to look like in 2050, what it's going to look like in 2100, and how that picture changes as a function of what your background warming happens to be. One of the things we had been investigating is just, well, we kind of had pivoted from thinking about future to saying, well, we live in a world where global warming has already occurred. We can simply document what has happened. And so much of what my lab group does here at Dartmouth is investigate retrospectively, kind of build that documentary evidence of here are the costs of climate change to date.

33:33And in thinking about the cost of climate change to date, one of the things you have to do is isolate those costs from the costs that would have happened anyway, such as the cost from El Nino, which is an innate form of climate variability, right? El Nino occurs in absence of people and their greenhouse gas emissions. So isolating that cost and kind of partitioning it from the cost accounting of global warming became a pretty important exercise. So we're always in kind of detection and attribution science trying to say, well, what is consistent with the world as it has been versus the world as it would have been absent global warming?

34:12And that means having a really clear picture of what we call internal climate variability, such as the variability from El Nino. And so we were interested in this cost accounting of El Nino just to clarify the cost of global warming today. And when we went back and did this exercise using these causal inference techniques, so this is all observationally built, right? We can take data of variation in El Nino, which is essentially a random treatment, right? It is stochastically generated while it has a life cycle against it. Our global economies aren't necessarily shaping sea surface temperature anomaly patterns in places like the tropical Pacific.

34:54So it's effectively exogenous from our economy. And so that's really crucial in this empirical setting of trying to identify, well, what's the effect of an El Nino on an economy? And how does that upward aggregate to a macroeconomic toll? What you can do is just take a bunch of data of something like gross domestic product, which is summarizing all economic productivity, goods and services produced by an economy. We have pretty good data on that for at the country scale for a pretty long amount of time. And you can look at differences in that economic growth. So how did economic growth vary from year to year?

35:34So you're not looking at absolute levels of GDP. You're looking at changes in economic growth as embedded in changes in GDP. And then you can look at something like El Nino as a treatment. And then you have another source of variation, which is that not every country is equally linked to El Nino physically. El Nino is kind of remarkable in that it generates many different kinds of physical hazards. from heat waves to droughts to floods to landslides to wildfires, right? And so in that sense, like its impacts, interestingly, look a lot like the wider impacts from global warming, which is a worthy discussion in and of itself.

36:15But we'll put that to the side for a second. And what you can do is you can exploit the kind of random variation we've observed in the real world of El Nino occurrence and El Nino magnitude, how that relates to the teleconnection, how tightly coupled locations, weather and climate is to El Nino as a phenomenon, and then see what accounts for the variation in economic productivity as measured in changes in GDP. And so that's what we did back in 2023 and published in a paper in Science, where we showed that actually we can detects very sizable deviations in economic growth from El Nino as a phenomenon.

36:59And that scales in teleconnection strength, meaning countries that are most influenced climatically and from a meteorological standpoint by the phenomenon of El Nino are most impacted and negatively so. So Peru, with road washouts, disrupting commodities from, you know, mine sites in the mountains to port, induces a shock. And that shock doesn't seem to be what an economist might call a level effect, meaning a simple deviation that you then recover from in a subsequent year. What we find in this empirical research is that observationally, El Nino seems to systematically depress growth, meaning your country is growing at a rate and then an El Nino occurs and then you are growing on a different trajectory.

37:53And so those losses just accrue ad infinitum in time. And that is a distinct finding than what was previously understood about El Nino. Right. So this is really important. I think most people are used to thinking about weather related shocks as the sort of short term thing that, as Justin just said, impacts the price level. But what the paper actually found was that there's this longer term impact on essentially output, like growth in the longer term. Why is that? Like what exactly is happening here? Because, again, you would expect like, OK, a road gets washed out. It's probably inconvenient.

38:32It's probably expensive to replace. But it does get you would think it does get replaced relatively quickly. And a lot of these negative effects would subside relatively fast. I think a one off shock might look that way. Right. A yield loss owing to a heat wave or drought in one part of the upper Midwest says nothing about major grain producing regions in Russia or cotton prices given growth in the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan. These things are disparate enough in space that maybe they're not experiencing simultaneous shock. What I think is kind of interesting about El Nino and why El Nino is an interesting analog for the impacts of wider global warming, which is kind of a universally experienced, you know, there's a high degree of correlation in the impacts of global warming, right?

39:31It's not simply a heat wave here. It's a heat wave here, here, here and here, all at the same time, all experiencing loss at the same time, which is one of the reasons why I think it's this simultaneity of disparate regions experiencing hazards and experiencing losses that then can lead to these up aggregating market forces that systematically depress growth and alter where capital investment can go. you know, the efficiency with which you're able to take labor and capital and mobilize it into productive parts of the economy. It is hard to do that when there are lots of hazards being experienced around the world, right?

40:15So it's not one thing disrupting your supply chain. It's maybe a dozen things. And I think that's the distinction why, you know, the 97-98 El Nino was about 36 billion in economic losses as estimated at the time as a level fact, a shock and then a recovery. What we actually found is that there was empirical evidence for a systematic depression of economic growth. And over a five-year period, that amounts to about$5.7 trillion in global economic losses instead by the year 2003, right, five years after the 97, 98 event. What's really fascinating is we played this game where we use what's called a perfect model framework, where we simply ask the question, if we know that the impact of El Nino is permanent and of this magnitude, given the observational data we have, could we prove that it's permanent?

41:13So these kinds of statistics rely on the ability to pull a signal from noise, which requires a certain amount of data. And that amount of data affects the claims you can make robustly. And so what we were trying to do there is say, even if we had a known effect, can we recover that known effect perfectly given our data record? And what we found is that we couldn't, which means that we cannot rule out the possibility that the economic impacts of El Nino at the global scale are permanent. Meaning that every time an El Nino occurs, we're just knocked off our growth trajectory that would have been absent that event, which is kind of remarkable.

41:54which implies that these costs kind of accrue ad infinitum in time. In our paper, we only went out to five and eight and 10 years of growth accounting, but it just says that the economic losses associated with these events are much higher than we understood before, which means, you know, it's just another kind of piece of evidence that shows that weather and climate matter for our economy. And our climate system is endogenous to that economic growth, right? It is greenhouse gas emissions induced by economic growth that is altering our trajectory of climate. And our climate also has a finger on the scale of what constitutes our economy.

42:37And so that endogeneity, I think, is something really important to understand and represent, particularly around policies related to climate variability and climate change.

42:46Tracy Alloway:That was a fantastic answer. When you think about the impacts of this El Nino or the El Nino in the year 2050 or the El Nino in the year 2100, you know, so obviously, like, one, you know, presumably, take a country like Peru, it's probably going to be richer in the year 2050. So it'll probably have more economic activity. It may also have better infrastructure in the year 2050, such that road washouts are less likely. Countries after, you know, I presume even since 82 or 97, there's been, you know, hardening against weather related shocks and so forth as countries learn about these patterns. How do you model that aspect, both the fact that, OK, there is more economic activity in the sort of temporally connected areas and also presumably governments and companies get better about anticipating the El Ninos and strengthening their infrastructure such that they're not as vulnerable?

43:54It turns out it's really hard, right? The predictions of future are not falsifiable. Yeah.

44:01Tracy Alloway:And so I hope Peru's wealthier in 2050 and 2100. But yeah, I mean, yeah, we didn't even talk about the fisheries implications. Yeah. One thing that's really I think what you're you're kind of raising is this this question of adaptation. Yeah. And resiliency. And the way I've been thinking about that is evolving, right? There's a story we can tell. that says, okay, if there are market inefficiencies or we're shown to be vulnerable societally in these particular ways, we're going to develop strategies to ensure resilience, right? Those Peruvian potato farmers noticed they were losing crops, you know, and they altered their sowing dates based on the visibility of the Pleiades overhead.

44:45Like that is an adaptation. And you can imagine autonomous adaptations, meaning individual level adaptations. You can also imagine society wide or planned adaptations, such as shoring up kind of resilience. And these things are linked to El Nino forecasts, right? Like one of the things you're seeing, you know, you said at the outset, Tracy, of all these financial planners thinking about the implications of El Nino for markets around the world and supply chains, that is a form of kind of resilience strategy, building that's occurring that is indelibly linked to the science of ENSO forecasting and why El Nino forecasts are so important, right?

45:28The 1982-83 El Nino, we didn't have the benefit of a tremendous amount of lead time in planning for its impacts, right? A tropical cyclone off in the ocean, right? Being able to track it and have sufficient time to get resources injected into the places you need and people out of harm's way, right? Like that requires lead time, which is why these types of forecasts are so essential, because they allow us to pursue resilient strategies that we otherwise wouldn't have been able to. But this wider question of like, are we well adapted to climate variability we have? And shouldn't we expect that we'll be even better adapted to climate variability in the future?

46:12I would say the evidence is pretty mixed. There isn't a whole lot of evidence that we're well adapted to the climate we have. We are finding, documenting, observationally, that the costs of El Nino are astounding, despite the fact that we've been exposed to it for hundreds and hundreds of years, right? This is not something that is novel. While the coming El Nino seems to be out of sample, and the costs associated with it are really hard to anticipate because it is so out of sample. When I think about the cost of this forthcoming El Nino, I estimate somewhere around$10 trillion of global economic losses conservatively over the next five years.

46:54right up to 14 trillion dollars of economic losses if you take some of these tail but i could only 70 of that only you know about 10 trillion dollars of that is in sample meaning supported by existing data we have on el nino's and economic responses our global economy is larger and so these losses are associated not just with the magnitude of the el nino but the size of our global economy there's just more stuff to be impacted. What that tells me is that we are not optimally adapted to the climate we have. And so there isn't much evidence that we have that we are taking on board the feedback we're getting from the climate system about how things are going and pursuing strategies that really offset or mitigate losses in a coherent way.

47:43I think that's pretty telling, just given the documentary exercise. That's not to say that we couldn't be better adapted. I just think that we are not well adapted and there isn't widespread evidence of adaptation to either El Nino as a form of climate variability or wider global warming, since the impacts of global warming look a lot like the impacts of El Nino. And so I think there's like a bunch to kind of disentangle there. But when we're thinking about these future growth impacts from Enso, we need a counterfactual world of what economic growth trajectory would have been absent El Nino, but given global warming.

48:25And that is a picture of future that I think is really hard to envision. But there are economic tools that people use to create those counterfactual worlds. And then you can measure deviations, as could be the case, given what we know to be observationally true about the relationship between El Nino and an economy. I know you just said there aren't a lot of examples of successful adaptations for El Nino other than perhaps Peruvian potato farmers sowing their crops early. But give us some hope here or some idea of what a successful adaptation could look like in an ideal scenario where this is an endogenous phenomenon, as you just described, where you have it basically happening all around the world simultaneously.

49:08What could we do to try to offset some of the economic impact? Gosh, that's, you know, it's such a great question. One of the ways I think about this is there's improving resiliency in global markets such that these weather and climate shocks don't alter prices and interest rates and all these things that are huge determinants of human well-being. Then there is also like the direct hazards themselves, right? A stronger than average atmospheric river event that triggers a landslide along Route 1 in California, creating a road washout that is a massive disruption to communities there. A wildfire, you know, that rages through the bush in Australia, killing trillions of animals and raising insurance premiums on kind of wildfire protection for homes there, right?

50:02There are all these kind of ways you can process trace how El Nino hurts an individual or a community. And so I think that protection of human well-being from approximate sense of like, are you okay, given these hazards, that to me is a different question than how you shore up international markets such that they are resilient to the impacts of El Nino. And I think just separating them is really, really valuable. I think the fact that people are aware of El Nino as a phenomenon and that it can induce these cascading shocks through agriculture or through mining or through the transport sector and that all those things all around the world can up aggregate to a macroeconomic toll, I think is important to know.

50:48And I don't know enough about how people think about these portfolios, but I know that risk diversification is a strategy to ensure returns. And I imagine That's something that people are embracing given modern portfolio theory or whatever. But I think this question of like, how do you protect people from hazard? That is a different question and requires different sets of warnings about the local manifestation of the hazards associated with El Nino. And to me, that means early warning systems. That means emergency management and response teams that are well placed and understand these consequences.

51:29That means that we have insurance markets that recognize the hazards, the unique geophysical hazards associated with something like El Nino and its regional dependencies and what it should imply for the types of products those people need to protect the most capital intensive asset they have, which is their home. It's many different kinds of things. And so none of this is out of the realm of possibility. There's a lot of these things we do anyway, right? We build reservoirs to mitigate drought risk already. Never mind the fact that Lake Powell, the central bank of the American West water economy is at a near record low.

52:07So he knows his audience. Anyway, I guess the point is, you know, I think there are lots of there's lots of evidence that we these adaptations are within the realm of possibility. But the constellation and configuration they take is kind of regionally dependent. And so I think kind of a coherent global strategy about managing the impacts of El Nino is an interesting test bed for adaptation strategies that would lend itself to wider global warming. And that's something that I'm really intrigued by.

52:36Tracy Alloway:So you talk about this idea that what you've discovered through your research is that El Ninos are not these sort of cycles that you bounce back from and then you resume to trend growth, right, that they change their trajectory. But if El Ninos are something that are very consistent and predictable throughout history, such that we've been, you know, there's evidence of farmers having tried to anticipate them going back over 500 years. Why should we not assume that it's seasonal? You could say, for example, that cold winter months depress economic growth, which they probably do. People don't go out as much and shop and travel as much in the middle of December.

53:25Tracy Alloway:And so we could say, oh, if there were no Decembers, if it never got cold, then in the counterfactual, you know, we would have had much higher growth, which is true, but also absurd because the premise of not having a winter is absurd. If El Nino is something that will always and has always been with us, why do we even imagine there being a counterfactual trend rate of growth in a world without El Ninos? Yeah, I think, you know, that comes back to the kind of empirical identification strategy. Okay. Like we don't have the benefit of re-simulating the world as it has been and kind of the emergence of global society and the global economy absent El Nino.

54:11Yeah. And so we rely on models to create those counterfactuals. We know that El Nino, while being cyclic in nature, it is not perfectly so. It is as good as a random treatment. And so we can separate the experience of the world into those associated with El Nino and those not. And we can examine the differences in economic productivity under those two regimes. So that's essentially what we're doing empirically. It's akin to a medical control trial, right, where you randomize a population into a treatment group that gets a drug and control group that doesn't, right, or receives a placebo and you compare medical outcomes, right?

54:55There are people that may look the same in the treatment and control group, and there are people that may look different in the treatment and control group. But if you randomized effectively, those differences among individuals cancel out. And the kind of efficacy of the drug itself is just the difference between those two groups. El Nino is as good as randomly assigned, despite the fact that it is cyclic in nature. And so you can treat it as this natural experiment, this treatment. And compare it to the control of non-El Nino years. And that's effectively what we're doing here when we're kind of talking about this counterfactual.

55:33We know what economic productivity looks like. And so you're right to say that, you know, economic productivity looks different in winter than in summer or in spring. Right. And it looks different in the face of a tropical cyclone than it does in the face of, you know, a civil conflict or something else. These things have impacts, but what we're doing here is kind of exploiting natural stochastic variation in it, despite its cyclic nature. And what I think is remarkable and what I'm kind of suggesting here is that despite the fact that El Nino is not a novel phenomenon, right? It is not something that we have never experienced before, which global warming is, right?

56:19Global warming is something humanity has never experienced and it is out of sample. And it is arguably making this El Nino that's unfolding, given the background warming, truly out of sample, truly out of sample event. It's something humanity has never experienced before. And I'm saying despite the fact that we should be inured to experiencing El Nino, we have limited evidence of widespread adaptation and resilience. All right, Justin Mankin, thank you so much for coming on Offlog. Yeah, thanks for having me.

57:02Joe, I found that conversation fascinating. Love talking about the weather in all ways. But I think the point about this idea that like, okay, El Nino is something that we have experienced. It does come with some regularity. And yet there seems to be some proof that it has this lasting impact, not just on the immediate economy, but on economic growth itself, is a very important one when you consider that, again, we're about to experience a potentially record-breaking El Nino and with the wider backdrop of climate change, right?

57:34Tracy Alloway:Super interesting. I learned so much in that conversation that I didn't know this term that I just heard throughout my life that I really, oh, it gets warmer or something like that. I didn't really know what it was or why it was or what direction. I thought it was really interesting. Okay, what makes an El Nino different from another random weather event? The global simultaneity of it as being key, like, okay, other events you just bounce back from. I mean, everything must have some effect. You never like bounce back from anything that perfectly back to trend. But the simultaneity, of course, we saw that during COVID and the ripple effects from that.

58:12Tracy Alloway:And so when you have this weather pattern that is truly global in nature and sort of very, I guess, predictable in the sense that you know what regions they're all going to get hit, it sort of makes sense to think about it in these terms of like, oh, there are real long term costs, especially if they're intensifying during a trend of global warming. Yeah. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide kind of idea. The other thing I was thinking, of course, back to some of our early agricultural episodes from this year, all of this is happening against a backdrop of higher fertilizer prices and lower supply.

58:48Like you still have, I think, 30 percent, 40 percent. I can't remember the exact numbers of global fertilizer supply stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. And that can't be helpful either when you're talking about the biggest El Nino on record.

59:02Tracy Alloway:Yeah, no, it's going to be a, well, now we are well-armed. Maybe we're not well-adapted for the El Nino. But we know about it. We are at least well-armed to understand news stories that will be emerging over the weeks. And cell-side analyst notes. And the cell-side analyst notes in the months ahead. All right, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano.

59:39Tracy Alloway:And for more OddLots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots for a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we talk about the weather, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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