A Major American Egg Farm Just Lost 90% of its Chickens

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1:15Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.

1:30Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Traci Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. So, Joe, just a few months ago, you will remember, I'm sure, egg prices were a really big deal. And we had all these headlines about eggs costing like$10 a dozen and shortages of eggs at supermarkets or eggs being rationed. And it even became a sort of political touchstone. It featured in the elections. And fast forward to today, and it feels like no one's really talking about egg prices anymore. Egg prices paid to Midwest producers. they've gone from like$8.24 to something like$3.44. So we've seen a really dramatic decline.

2:16We're recording this, by the way, on June 3rd, which happens to be National Egg Day. When you look at the price, you can see why no one's talking about it anymore, right? There are certain charts in the world that we only talk about when they're going up. When they're parabolic. There's others that we only talk about when they're going down. Prices for things like certain food items we tend to only talk about on the way up. Yeah, but here's my big question. As far as I can tell, bird flu is still very much with us. So, you know, the thing that caused egg prices to spike in the first place. And so I'm very curious why prices have come down.

2:50How much of it is just people who stopped buying eggs because they were so expensive versus how much of it is maybe the poultry supply got built back up. And I'm happy to say we have the perfect guest to discuss all of this, although the context in which we're talking is actually very sad. We're going to be speaking with Glenn Hickman. He is the president of Hickman's Egg Ranch in Arizona, one of the largest egg producers in the U.S. And you might remember Glenn from our special three-part series, Beat Capitalism, in which we talked about soaring egg prices and avian flu. And unfortunately, there's been a pretty dramatic development for the egg ranch since then.

3:31And they have just lost 95 percent of their chickens to the flu. Yeah, I mean, it's an absolutely staggering number. One thing before we get into the conversation that I think is really striking is that you mentioned that prices have come down by basically any measure. And I'm looking at that Midwest delivery number that's gone from over 800 to 344. I mean, compared to years before it, I mean, that was below 100 for a long time. So even though prices have come down from that recent spike, eggs are just they're very expensive these days. And so there's clearly this like persistent issue and something has changed.

4:08Maybe it's bird flu, something else that continues to put sustained upward price on eggs. Yeah. So we need to talk about all of this. So, Glenn, welcome back to the show. I wish it were under better circumstances. Well, thank you for having me. So why don't you go ahead and tell us what exactly is going on? Like, what's the situation over at the Egg Ranch? Sure. We have four laying farms here in the state of Arizona. Our farm down south in the city of Maricopa got sick with bird flu in November. And then it was when we tried to refill the farm in January, it got reinfected again. So that farm is still just barely populated.

4:48They've got 340 ,000 chickens down there. But two weeks ago on Friday, our biggest farm in Tonopah, Arizona, got sick with bird flu. And subsequent to that, our two other farms in Arlington, Arizona, have gotten bird flu. And virtually all of our replacement pullets have gotten bird flu. So right now, today, we've got a total infection of about 6 million birds that we're in the process of depopulating. Bird flu comes and goes from time to time in the U.S. Can you talk a little bit about this current, what seems to be a sustained wave? And of course, the first time we talked to you, I think, was either in late 2022.

5:27Late 2022. Late 2022. And then that went away and then it came back. Do you have an explanation of what is going on big picture that this is a sustained, persistent problem in bird health? Sure. When this round of bird flu started on the East Coast in February 2022, it was still thought to be a seasonal challenge that was carried by migratory waterfowl. Now, I wouldn't say that it's gone away and came back. I'd say it's more ebbed a little bit, Joe. We've never, ever since those first flocks got sick in 2022, we have not been able to fully rebuild our nation's laying flock before the next wave of bird flu starts.

6:10So right now, what we know to be true is it's endemic in several environments. We know that we've had wildlife services out trapping sparrows and pigeons and vermin and ground squirrels, those kind of things, and it's all testing positive for bird flu. So it's now endemic in our environment, and it's something that, you know, the pressure to get inside the barns where the chickens are is a 24-7, 365 pressure. So on this note, this is basically my question. Egg prices have come down a lot. Why exactly is that if bird flu is still with us, if we haven't really rebuilt the nation's chicken supply?

6:49Is it down to demand destruction and eggs just getting too expensive? Or is it all the eggs we started importing? What exactly accounts for the big fall in price? Tracy, I'm not an economist, but I will tell you that the high prices did cause some people to seek alternatives for breakfast, whether it's yogurt and berries or peanut butter on some toast. And we've also had eggs allowed in from other countries that have taken over some of the industrial needs. And so we also traditionally in the summertime, egg prices are softer because of a lessening in demand. People just don't have the same routines in the summertime where they get up and eat a hot breakfast before heading out the door.

7:34I have to say, I just find this to be a very disturbing, like a deeply disturbing story about the U.S. economy or something about the U.S., which is that you look at this chart, and I extended it going back further, and you just have this very quiet sideways line in egg prices that moves around very little bit. There are a couple of modest spikes. And then in the last few years, there's been this surge. And so even with this big price drop has come down and you mentioned that it's become endemic. Like, is that a is it a policy failure? Is there something we could substantively do different? And in your view, is there any prospect for like a 2013 style supply and demand equation?

8:17Joe, we'd like to have nothing better. We can protect our flocks. And I'm just going to say And we're very, very frustrated. Right now, today, our country manufactures vaccine for poultry to protect them against avian flu, and we ship it to countries in Europe and other places. So we're making the vaccine here every day, and we're protecting flocks in other countries. We've been unable to access that same vaccine. I think we have it caught up in some kind of bureaucratic merry-go-round, and we just can't seem to get it pushed over the fence line. I know that we have industry officials meeting with the USDA, but I think it's going to come down to President Trump is going to have to say we want this nonsense to stop and we want to start vaccinating these flocks.

9:06Has the Trump administration done anything in terms of bird flu? Because I know Trump has talked about egg prices and taking credit for it, but I've been having difficulty identifying specific policies or changes that they've actually done since January. Yes, very much. They've become involved. They allocated, I think it was$800 million towards different mitigation, you know, biosecurity programs, research and such like that. But there needs to be no more research on vaccine. It's available right now. And basically, it's being held up because of the meat bird industry that doesn't want to vaccinate their flocks.

9:48Right, because then they can't export them to certain countries that don't allow vaccinated birds. Yeah, they cannot export their surpluses to other countries if they were locked out of those markets because they were vaccinating their birds. This is such an amazing example of some of the pickles of international trade. It's like we sell vaccines abroad so that other countries can avoid the bird flu for eggs. And then we don't want to use it, not because of the eggs, but because those countries don't want to take vaccinated chicken. Before we get into what happens now in terms of rebuilding the flock, can you just walk us through a little bit more the last several weeks?

10:26Like, when did you realize, like, what is the moment where you realize you have to do a massive call? And what's that like? Well, we started to see a few sick chickens on May 14th. And, you know, it wasn't a big increase. And so we didn't think too much about it. On May 15th, we saw a bigger increase. We took swabs of the sick chickens down to the University of Arizona. Their lab detected bird flu on the 16th. And then we've been in a massive operation to depopulate our farms ever since then. Do you have any idea of how the flu got in? because I know you had a lot of protective measures in place, including laser beams to scare away wild birds and things like that.

11:10What's your theory for how the chickens got sick? Tracy, I don't know why the government wants to say this virus is not airborne, but it is airborne. We didn't track this in on someone's shoe. We didn't have a wild bird that was sick get into one of the barns. That's just not happening. What happens is it's airborne. It rides in on a dust particle. And, you know, these barns, we have to ventilate and we have to bring in fresh air for the birds to breathe. And there's just no way to filter that kind of volume at that kind of filtration level. So that's why we need a vaccine. There's no mechanical ways left that our industry has not tried to keep the virus on the outside.

11:54Talk to us about the process of rebuilding a flock step by step. What do you actually have to do and how long does that take? Well, generally speaking, our replacement flocks are geared to replace our flock every 20 months. So for us, it's roughly 300 ,000 birds a month that we bring in and we grow to adult size to put in the layer barns. that's a staggered 5 % per month for 20 months to get our flocks replaced. So when we've lost everything basically within a two-week time span, it's still going to take us 20 months to totally rebuild that flock. We're going to be suffering through this for quite a while.

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13:47EasyCater, your business tool for food. To learn more, visit easycater.com slash podcast. Okay, so I believe you get compensated for chickens that you have to cull, although maybe it changes when we're talking, you know, six million chickens versus 100 ,000 or something like that. And I know that you've said that you're not going to be able to fulfill your contracts with customers going forward because of all of this. Talk to us about the financial position that this leaves you in? Well, we're part of an egg marketing cooperative, so we do have access to some of our other members' eggs, and that's what we're doing right now in bringing those eggs in and making sure that the store shelves stay full.

14:30With regards to the compensation from the government, we get paid, not just we, but anyone in our industry gets paid to depopulate the flock, clean the facilities, eliminate the virus, and they approximate the cost of the chicken to repopulate that. They don't compensate you for the loss of income. Like, again, in our instance, we will be below full production for the next better part of two years. How are you going to, as a business, what is that going to mean when you think about the future of the business, but the short term to have so many months of lost income now? Well, thankfully, we have good relations with our banks.

15:09We have some resources of our own. And so we feel like we're going to be able to take the time to rebuild those flocks and such. But, you know, I think the challenge that we're going to have is rehiring the people that we need that have been trained. Some of them have been with us as long as I've been here. And so that loss of institutional knowledge is what we're going to have the hardest thing to try to replace. So I know you're not an economist and you're not in the business of making price forecasts. But do you have a sense of what's going to happen to egg prices from here? Not just because of the loss of, you know, your millions of chickens, but also because it really seems like bird flu is, as you said, becoming endemic in the U.S.

15:54Well, there's two things. I mean, there's supply and there's demand. And so we are bringing eggs in from other countries that's helping on the supply side of things. You know, as kind of an interesting point, we are bringing eggs in from Mexico where they routinely do vaccinate their flocks, and we're bringing those eggs in. So that's one of the ways we're going to be able to address this. But frankly, you guys, we're not going to have a steady supply of eggs that we've enjoyed, you know, for the past hundred years if we don't stop the spread of bird flu. And so the only way to do that now that this has become, you know, something we live with all the time is to vaccinate our flocks so we can protect them.

16:40Does everyone else in the world use chicken vaccines at this point? No, I don't think everyone does. I know that there's several European countries that do. I know that Mexico vaccinates their flocks. And I think it's gaining wider and wider spread acceptance every place. OK, you have, you know, now there's sort of multiple years of this. And even the reestablishing of the flock feels like it's going to be a risky process, right? Because you're going to spend, you know, maybe 20 months or close to two years getting back to full capacity. But then, of course, the flu could strike again. And do you think that like when we think about the sort of sustained steady rate of where egg prices are going to go, maybe it's not you because you have scale and you have money and you have good access to capital, but that essentially you see farmers sort of depart the egg game, depart the egg industry because it appears and maybe accurately to be higher risk than it used to be due to the disease being endemic.

17:37And then there's just sort of, you know, less competitive pressure and, you know, competitive pressure drives prices lower. Well, Joe, I think we're seeing it already. There's been lots of farms in the last three years that have sold out to companies that want to continue to shoulder this kind of risk. And I think that we're going to continue to see that happen. You know, the egg industry by and large are all family owned farms. And so, you know, it does test one's commitment when, you know, we cannot control our future. future. All right, Glenn, we're going to leave it there, but thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts again.

18:15And as I said, I wish it were under better circumstances, but we appreciate you explaining everything that's happened. Tracy, I appreciate being able to kind of tell our story and try to keep this in the public eye. We do need a solution. Thank you, Glenn. That was great, as always. And as I said, really appreciate you taking the time given everything that's going on. Okay. Hey, thanks, guys. Have a good day.

18:52so joe obviously appreciate getting that update on the business from glenn because as i said eggs and bird flu have to some extent fallen out of the headlines but like they're still going on in the background and it's still a really interesting case study in industry economics As you pointed out, prices are just more volatile than they've been for much of history. And this is something that you find, I think, increasingly, and especially in agriculture, where you have these big one-off shocks. It's really, really difficult for the market to recalibrate itself. Yeah, it seems very plausible to me that this could just be the end of cheap eggs, right?

19:32Because, you know, you have this consolidation, you have this persistent added cost because of the risk, etc. So even when we get this decline, they're still much more expensive than they used to be. You have less competitive pressure, etc. And I find this to be like deeply disturbing. Like this to me seems like a very crystal clear example of sort of society going backwards. And the reason I think eggs are important is because arguably sort of cheaper and cheaper protein is the hallmark of a sort of rising standard of living. This really feels to me like we're going backwards as a society when this is happening.

20:08Well, and when this happens, it also becomes harder and harder to, I guess, gauge the future of the business and figure out how much you're supposed to invest in it. If you're getting these wild swings in prices and then the risk is, you know, you have overcapacity and then undercapacity and then overcapacity and it just keeps oscillating forever. And like the essence of like things getting cheaper over time is like sustained competitive pressure. Everyone wants to invest and everyone wants to eat each other's margin. Right. And that's like when capitalism is working at the best. And you're not going to get that at a time when you have fewer and fewer participants and more and more reasons just not to even take the risk in the first place.

20:46And it clearly is one of these situations, as Glenn was emphasizing, where you have to have a, quote, you know, a public health response. And the market isn't going to do it on its own in terms of either eliminating bird flu or eliminating the risk of bird flu. And so you need to have that centralizing force. And right now, it doesn't seem like it's there. My analog for all of this is swine fever in China. There was a really big outbreak there. Did you know that China lost 30 million small to medium sized pig farms between 2007 and late 2024? They probably had like half a billion of them, right?

21:21Like, no, yeah, no, it's a really. It illustrates the point about the big getting bigger. And in fact, the share of small pig farmers in the market went from like 74 percent in 2007 to less than a third in 2023. It does seem in the on the flip side, it does seem like this is the story with agriculture, period. And I recall our conversation with the lentil king talking about how, like, you know, even what we might think of as a, quote, family farm, unquote, in Canada might have, you know, hundreds of thousands of acres at this point. I think it's a little different in China, but you see the point I'm making.

21:56Yeah, no, I definitely see the point that you're making. It just seems like there are so many forces that are conspiring towards this, the big getting bigger within agriculture. And when you look at the pricing and anyway, I find it like deeply worrying as like the trajectory of society that we can't get this under control. Well, on that happy note, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the All Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Allaway. You can follow me at Tracy Allaway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmin, Dash O 'Bennett at DashBot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks.

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