Google's Liz Reid on Who Will Own Search in a World of AI

23:15It can also be like you were searching for restaurants. We used to laugh about the, like before I worked on search, I worked on maps and local, some of the intersection with search and people would just be like restaurants, New York. And you're like, what do you want me to do with that query? Right. Okay. The best restaurants in New York are going to take three months and 99.9 % of the population can't afford to go to them. Okay. But like, are you picking 10 random ones, et cetera. But like part of why people will do that is they had a much more complex. I want a restaurant in this location for five people.

23:47It can't be too pricey. I have a vegan member. I also have kids. That was the question they had in their mind. And in the old word of keyword ease, that information would be kind of spread throughout the web. And so you wouldn't feel confident you could just put in the question. And now with AI reviews and AI mode, you can start to actually, and you see people do this, they tell you the real problem. They don't take their need and translate it to what the computer understands. They try to give the computer their actual need and expect us to do the translation. And I think that's really exciting to see because when we can be more helpful, but also like those are real problems people had.

24:26If you go back to the mission, it was organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful. Like that useful part, right? It's not just that it's organized. Is it useful to you? And I think one of the most exciting things about AI, the transformation going on right now is that you can actually make information much more useful to people. And that really opens up. That makes it so that people just ask more questions because we can actually do a better job meeting their needs. Does that come with any complications in terms of privacy or competition for Google? If people aren't using keywords as much anymore, if they're doing basically like query brain dumps into the prompt and saying, you know, I am so-and-so, I have a kid, I live here, I want to do the following things.

25:09This is my issue. Is that like an added layer of complexity that you have to deal with as like a large search company? I mean, I think people from a privacy perspective, we give people sort of a range of different things. They can be sort of an incognito, they can be signed out, they can be signed in across. And I think Google has a long tradition of really treating people's data with a great deal of care and having cutting-edge security and privacy by design. So I think people are seeing the value and they have continued their trust in Google. I think it means it's a harder job on quality, right?

25:48You have to take this question that's many parts and you have to figure out how you break it apart. And you have to do work to think about things like latency because you can't just, you know, if everyone uses the same keyword and it's not personalized, then you can cash it all. If all of a sudden the queries get much more diverse, it has consequences there. But I think we just see that it's very empowering people, right? That it takes some of the work out of searching. I think sometimes people think, oh, a few years ago they said like, oh, what more can you do with Google search? But like if you actually ask them, okay, when was the last time you spent 20 minutes searching when you would have preferred to spend two?

26:24It's actually not that hard for me. Oh, the last time I was trying to like go find a service provider. The Last time I was trying to go like do these bigger tasks in life. And so it's been kind of exciting to just make people's lives easier by helping them address their real need.

26:40Tracy Alloway:I have so many different theoretical questions I can ask. Here's one. Actually, you know what? This is something that was inspired by our producer Dash, a conversation that I had with him 10 minutes ago prior to this and related to something else. I imagine in your career at Google spanning over two decades at this point, you've been involved in quite a bit of recruiting and recruiting software engineers in particular. And I imagine that's a particularly important aspect in some way or another for the VP of Surge. Given what we've seen with AI coding and so forth, when you're doing one of these leak code software developer interviews, et cetera, is it different today than five years ago?

27:22Tracy Alloway:Do you have to think really differently about the battery of technical questions that you would propose to a software engineer today, given the restructuring of the nature of the job in the world of AI-generated code? I think the process is definitely evolving. I wouldn't say that we have perfected the science yet, but there's two angles in which you're thinking about it. One is you don't want to ask questions for which they just go and type in the answer in the chatbot and recite it back to you. So you need to make sure. To the extent that your goal is to understand, are they critically thinking?

27:55Are they able to think through a problem and do that? You want to make sure that that's actually what you're assessing, right? And so is it in person? How are you doing that on some basic way? But there's the other thing that I think the tools are powerful. You can use them in ways that make you more effective and you can use them in ways that make you less productive. How do you think as the fluency is changing with AI, the way a software engineer might approach the problem now is different than they might've approached the problem five years ago without some of these tools. And so I think we're all learning how to change, asking that question, right?

28:29Are you building up that expertise? Are you building up that fluency? And the fluency isn't fixed. What was possible with the tools six months ago, let alone two years ago, is different than what's possible now. And in six months, it will be different. So you have to start thinking about how part of your interview is thinking about sort of fluency with the use of tools in the same way that like when IDEs became important or when people stopped using assembly language and they started doing Java, right? You had to sort of evolve the interviews. It's just that it's happening very fast, right? And so we all have to be on our toes, but exciting.

29:06Like you play with this tool and it doesn't work for something. And then it's not like play with it two years later. It's like play with it three months later. Maybe the tool will now work for these things. Okay. Okay. Well, speaking of tools, I mean, one of the things, Joe, I think you've said this, you've been playing around with Cloud Code, this idea that actually when you start vibe coding everything and telling your agent to do everything, it feels like you don't even necessarily need like a computer, much less a search engine, presumably. So I'm just curious, if you gaze five or 10 years into the future, what do you think the default entry point for interacting with the web is actually going to be?

29:43Is it going to be a search engine like Google? Is it going to be a specific LLM? Is it going to be my personal agent that I've vibe coded for all of my preferences?

29:52Tracy Alloway:Yeah, just, can I just add on to this question? This is something I think about. Like if I want to send an email to Tracy today, then what I have to do, like I find the tab in my browser, I scroll over there. Okay, that's my Gmail tab, et cetera, whatever. I would like to just be in my terminal. It'd be so much easier to say, here, send an email to Tracy saying this. There's all these steps that I currently do because of the nature of graphical user interfaces that now that I've gotten in like cloud coding or whatever, feel a little clunky. It feels a little yesterday. And so, yeah, I'm extremely curious about will the web with the series of boxes that we drag and drop, et cetera, is that the future or will it just be someone talking in English to their computer?

30:35I don't think like 10 years is a long time right now and where the tech is. That's fair. In one year. Three months from now.

30:42Tracy Alloway:Will we still have browsers in three months from now? People are like, okay, we believe in 10 years, we'll achieve AGI. Will anyone be doing anything the same? Okay. So with that aside, I think there are some things I believe in and some things I think we don't know. I think you already see if you go back 10, 20 years ago, that the way you interact with the tech has evolved a bunch, right? It used to be it was just the laptop. Well, now it's the phone. Well, now it's also the watch. Okay. In some cases it's the glasses. This sense that it should feel like the information is sort of at your fingertips in whatever medium is useful.

31:18Right. And, but I don't know that this becomes a, we haven't so far replaced all of the old ones, right? Like you use the phone a lot more, but my guess is you're not doing all your cloud code work on your phone and you're doing some of it on a desktop.

31:33Tracy Alloway:That's true. Right. The introduction of the watch has supplemented, but it hasn't eliminated the desktop, right? So what's been interesting actually is that it hasn't gone in the direction of converging to the answer. It's actually increased the form factors. And so that you want to be able to access this information wherever you are in whatever form factor makes sense. And so will it be glasses? Will it be something else? Quite possibly. But let's say, let's even say it's glasses become a big deal. Glasses are very small screens, even there. You're probably not going to do your big productivity thing on desktop.

32:06So I think what you'll see is that the access point is not confined to one thing, but that the key is to eliminate the friction, right? And the toil. To your point, you had to do six steps. You didn't want to do the six steps. Why should you do the six steps, okay? I think you see that like, some things are much easier to do with a chat interface. and then some things, actually a chat interface is a super slow way to go do, right? Like if you have a list and you have to go say, please remove this long title for the 10th item, that's actually much harder to do with chat than like an interface that does that, right?

32:45So I don't think it necessarily converges on a single thing. I do think it should feel much more adaptive to your point about, well, if this is the way you prefer to interact, not just where you are, but how you interact? And can you customize and can you create to what extent do the user interfaces look designed for you versus look designed for general? And can you have influence in them? I think you'll see that. I do think we sometimes, like we're very aware of what doesn't work well. We're not necessarily aware of what does work well. Like companies spend huge efforts working on how do they do shopping carts really well.

33:18yeah okay this belief that sort of the chatbot will have a more optimized shopping cart for every shopping cart place in the world than the one you go to every day i don't know not clear right for those things but i do think it should feel much more personal it should feel much more dynamic it should feel much more ambient and available to you and i don't think it will be one size fits all either per person or per form document

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36:00Tracy Alloway:I've been reading some articles. I think I saw one, there was a big one in the information recently. Let's talk about one of your competitors' meta. Yeah, it's a competitor. And it was like, everyone's token maxing there. And there's a token leaderboard and people are competing to show that they're using AI more than others. And from my perspective, that boggles my mind because compute is a cost and just using compute per se does not strike me as a particularly good way of measuring who is productively contributing to the company. I mean, I could certainly find an quick recursive way to burn tokens.

36:36Generate a bunch of AI images of corgis.

36:38Tracy Alloway:Yeah, generate it and then create one that just keeps telling it to improve itself, etc. The flip side, which some people say is like, look, it doesn't matter at this point because everyone has to figure out how they're going to use AI productively in their work. So you know what? Don't even worry about metering AI. Tell everyone to pedal to the metal and AI use. And if someone is maxing out on tokens, it means they're experimenting with something and then they'll find something that really is a productivity enhancer. I'm curious if from your perspective, it makes sense to like essentially see token consumption or compute use as a proxy for like someone who's doing their job aggressively well.

37:20I think the thing with all of these proxy metrics is if you use them blindly, you're going to run yourself into trouble. Okay. If you as a leader sort of don't use judgment on them, then you get the example of like, I will just create a job that runs in the background and does dumb things to do the tokens, right? So as a leader, your job is to sort of use good judgment and not just think about the incentives. So if somebody isn't playing around at all with the tools, when we know that they can improve productivity, then we need to figure out like why and how we help support, like maybe there's some issue with the part of the system they're working on and we should go fix it.

37:58Or maybe we just need to help upstill them or whatever else the case is. I do think there is a level of experimentation required, right? So I don't think it works if your answer is like, you need to ensure that all your token use is completely optimized. Like, it's not going to work, right? People have to learn what's possible. They're doing different jobs. The tech is changing. But it can either be like, don't use the tools, or just max your tools blindly, it's a noisy signal, but it's a signal, right? So go look at it and understand as a place of where to look. Don't use it as a final judgment.

38:35So speaking of measures and not oversimplifying them, I want to go back to the sort of core attention that we started the conversation out with, which is the AI results versus people actually clicking through to results and generating traffic. And I know you were talking about AI being expansion or complimentary for Google search. But I'm very curious how you actually measure that. And the more granular you can get on this, the better. Like, what are you specifically looking at to say that actually this is something that's good for our business versus something that's detracting from the core?

39:13So I guess I would say, like, Google's guidance in Northstar has always been, like, focus on the user. That's our biggest question at the heart, is how do we make a great experience for users? And then you want to be thoughtful, obviously, about other – okay, if you don't have a healthy ecosystem, you can't build a service ongoing. So you need to make sure you're nurturing a healthy ecosystem. If you make no money, then you can't fund this wonderful service. So you have to be thoughtful about those. But the place you start with is try and build something amazing for users. One of the things we've seen again and again with Google search is if you're doing a really great job, people will not just do another query, they will come back to you more often.

39:58They will take their phone out of their pocket an extra time. That's a high bar. It's one thing to go and say, I've showed you something. Can you do one more thing while I'm showing it to you? It's another thing to get you to decide you're going to bother to unlock your phone. you're going to boot up your desktop, you're going to navigate in the browser. And so one of the things we really look for is when we're doing these changes, does it cause people to come to search more often, not just use search more often, but come more often. We also do various like UX research studies and try and understand what are people happy about or not, what are the things they find are frustrating, are more users adopting it, not just how much are they using it.

40:41So we of the biggest is really like, do you choose to come and ask Google? Like, do you essentially hire Google more often, right? For things you need. And one of the things that's very surprising to people at times is they think they come somewhere for all the questions they have already today, right? Like maybe they think they come to Google all the time or they think they go to Google plus LLMs or Google plus LLMs plus TikTok plus whatever. Okay. They think they ask all the questions they have. But that's not true. You actually make a calculation when questions go through your mind of, is it worth spending any time to figure out the answer to this question?

41:16Okay. And if the answer is no, then you just don't ask the question. Right? And so when we talk about AI as an expansionary moment, what we really mean is there's a whole bunch of questions people have, there's a whole bunch of curiosity that is people are not exploring. And they're not exploring because they view it as too difficult or too much time or not sure that it will be worth it. And AI lowers that barrier. And it can lower that barrier in ways that are sometimes for US English speaker are surprising, which is like, actually in a bunch of countries, there's not all the content in the web and the language you speak, okay?

41:55LLMs can help unlock that content. AI overviews, because it's using an LLM, can be more multilingual than just the web corpuses by default, right? Okay, so suddenly information that wasn't available to you as a Hindi speaker is now available. It can be visual. You had a question about this flower. You had a question about that cool purse you saw. Like, where can you buy it? But you didn't know how to describe it. It's possible. It can also just be like, my kid has a question. Do I say, like, I don't know? Or do I go ask the question, right? You see with young kids, they ask questions all the time, right?

42:26They go, why, why, why, why, why, why, why? And like, at some point, parents are like, because. Stop bothering me. Go ask the LLM. They go, okay. Let me Gemini that for you. But they do that because from a kid's perspective, they assume adults know everything, right? And it is no cost to them, right? They're not worried about their time and other things. As an adult, it's not that you're not curious. You just don't think everything is known and you don't have the time, right? And so if you lower that barrier, it allows you to be that kid again that just sort of explores all of these things. or get started on those projects that felt daunting or enables you to save or learn a new skill or whatever else.

43:07And that's really exciting. But I don't want to dismiss the wonder of being a kid and learning about the world, but I'm going to sound very callous in a second. But how do you make money off of that? Like, how do you make money off of the AI overviews? Is it just customer retention? Is that what we're basically boiling it down to? And then if it is customer retention, then you could have a strong argument for saying that like everything can just go through Gemini instead of search? I think I would say a couple of things. Search only shows ads on a subset of queries, right? You're like less than a quarter of queries, right?

43:39So there's a whole bunch of queries pre-AIO reviews, right? That you don't make money on because many of them are not of commercial need, right? And so you asked a question about tankers earlier. Probably pre-AIO, that query wouldn't have shown ads anyway.

43:55Tracy Alloway:It doesn't show ads now, by the way. Yeah. I checked this too. There were no ads on that. It doesn't show ads before. There are no ads on that query, right? Nobody's trying to advertise something on that. Okay. So those queries, AI overview is like, it doesn't disrupt, right? Then there's a bunch of class of queries where like you're shopping. The presence of an AI overview or Gemini Answers, it doesn't preclude the need to still buy the item. So there's still this huge opportunity with ads because there's all of this choice that's going. I think you also see that there's an expansion of queries, right, to this point.

44:30So you get more queries. And so some of those queries are more commercial. Some of them are not, but some of them are more commercial. And so those become new opportunities for ads. And there can also be things like when the query is underspecified or it's a single query, you actually don't know as much. So you can't maybe target the ads as well. If people start expressing more of their need, if it's more of a conversation, they're going more down funnel, you can actually create better ads, right? And so you can think about new opportunities for ads formats, right? Some number of years ago, people would have said like, how can you make money from a fee?

45:02Okay, well, Instagram ads are very popular, right? And so there's new ads formats as you recognize new technology and new opportunities, but the commercial needs are still often there and the desire for user choice is still often there. And so there's still a lot of possibility going forward. And so it's worked out very well right now with us in the balance.

45:22Tracy Alloway:So I realized that I am a user of both the Gemini app or Gemini.Google.com and just Google.com. And I have like a sort of real an intuition of which one I go to for which purpose. So if I want to look up the capital of Moldova, I'll just search capital of Moldova, which I just got. Do you know what it is, Tracy? Sorry, I'm not trying to stump you. No, I feel like you're going to say it. No, it's Kishinau. I'd never heard of it. Oh, no, I didn't know that. Yeah, I didn't know that either. But anyway, but if I want to understand what are some academic papers that have been written about why it is that high-frequency trading firms tend to not have outside capital, etc., and what was the theory for this?

46:07Tracy Alloway:I think at this point I would use Gemini for that and hope to – I'd use Gemini or some other ones. But within the context of this conversation, that's more of a Gemini query for me than a Google one at this point. Will there always be two boxes or do you foresee eventually there is just one box and it will just know this is like why do we need two boxes? I don't know what life will be like in five years. I think it's very – sometimes people want sort of an experience, although the information need seems like similar. They actually want different experiences across. And so if you take a pre-Ellum example, people use YouTube for search some.

46:51In the US, they use it some. In India, they use it a huge amount. They bring a bunch of queries that you would bring to Google search in the US. You could say, okay, well, why haven't we collapsed YouTube and search box into one search box and do that? And it hasn't enslave in the case. We have the Google app and we have Chrome. They both allow you to search and they both allow you to browse the web. You have a set of people that love the Google app and you have a set of people that love Chrome and you have a set of people that use both on a phone, but you can't necessarily convince either population that they want to stop using one app and just switch to the other app.

47:27So I don't think the space is so huge and it's changing so quickly right now that to sort of be able to know for sure whether or not you can create one sufficiently dynamic personalized experience that one app, one entry point can truly do it all. I don't think we know yet on that. People come for restaurant searches, they come to Maps, and they come to Google Search. We have not collapsed the Maps app and the Search app. At some point, it becomes big. You're putting all this directions code into the Google Search app. Is that actually useful, even if you had a full Maps view? So I think we're just going to have to learn over time about what's good.

48:08But the space is really giant and they do have different emphasis right now on what they try to excel at. And you want to make sure that in the attempt to bring things together, you don't become only okay at everything. And you want to make sure that you can shine at all the use cases people need. And that may mean two products or that may not. Or it may be a third product, right? Like I don't know in five years. There may be a third product that replaces all the products. You have your personal agent. You don't talk to any products. I don't know. So I realized we kind of promised to talk about AI slop a little bit in this conversation.

48:39So one of the things that's happening with AI is not just that I can ask a bunch of questions I might not otherwise have had time or the inclination to ask, but also AI is being used to generate vast amounts of content that are aimed at potentially answering any silly question I or anyone else on Earth might have. Creating space, yeah. Yeah, just churning it out. And I'm very curious how search is weighing, I guess, the quality of its results in the new slop era of the internet. I think there's a tendency at times to think about AI slop as if it's, before AI slop, there was slop. Yes. Right? Human-generated slop.

49:19There was human-generated slop. Now there's AI-generated slop. So there has always been slop on the web. And so what doesn't really matter at some level is how much slop is on the web so much as is there great content on the web and can you surface it, right? And this is Google's bread and butter in ranking and has a long history of looking for spam and trying to drop it and make sure it doesn't show. And, like, we crawl many, many more pages than we even put in our index. There's pages we put in the index that we never surface, right? So that we can keep that rate of spam and slop at a very low rate.

49:59And it is a constant effort, right? Like it's not a problem you solve because some of the people generating the spam, right, there's a lot of financial incentives associated with it. But that is what people have come to trust Google is that it will show great information. And it's a thing that we will continue to put a huge amount of effort in. And so that's the way I would think about it. It's not like how much AI slop or human-generated slop or whatever automated slop pre-AI, post-human-generated there is, but making sure that the information you do see is trusted.

50:35Tracy Alloway:Liz Reed, thank you so much for coming on OddLoss. That was a fascinating conversation. I have like a billion more questions, but we'll have you on in three months when the entire world has changed and we'll get an update from you. Thank you very much. It was a pleasure to be on with you.

51:03Tracy Alloway:I like the point about human-generated stuff. Do you remember? Yeah, but the difference is the volume. No, I know. I get it. But do you remember Jason Calacanis' startup Mahalo? No. So Jason Calacanis, who's been on the podcast before, he had this startup for a while. It was like the biggest piece of garbage in the world. No, for real. People need to go like a – it was called Mahalo. And the idea was like they were just going to hire a lot of people to like write articles that were not very good to like appear in Google. Oh, I see. To swamp the – Yeah, there was a famous one that my old colleague at I think Business Insider, Nick Carlson, discovered.

51:40Tracy Alloway:And it was like, if you search how to play the xylophone, there was a Mahalo article for that. And it was, I swear to God. Okay. It was step one, decide if you want to play a xylophone. Well, that's an important step. Step two, get a xylophone. Step three, learn to read sheet music. Step four, practice reading sheet music and play. So like this was actually like this. I'm just remembering like it is people have been trying to like stuff complete garbage into the search results for a very long time. And I always get a chuckle thinking about that example. And you should go look for it. I'm looking for it now.

52:21I'm very distracted. It was so bad. Wait, we're just going to like laugh about this article for. Look at this. Just search it.

52:30Tracy Alloway:Mahalo, how to play the xylophone. Yeah. I see something from Mahalo.com on YouTube. That can't be it. Yeah, yeah. Just search. So, yeah, Business Insider, February 21. Hilariously useless. Mahalo is a guide to playing the xylophone. Did you write that? No, Nick Carlson wrote it. Oh, I see it. He wrote it up. Yeah, yeah. Unfortunately, now it's behind a paywall and itself is covered in sloppy ads. So, I guess. But anyway. Sorry. Decide whether you want to buy a used or new xylophone. metal xylophones are less expensive than wooden ones please that's useful that's a useful tip i know but when you see that it's like please ai like save us from this human generated garbage they were trying to clog search results before all right on a serious note yeah i did think the point about not customer retention but like expanding the volume of like user queries on the platform made a lot of sense totally which i hadn't like really considered that much before So even if you do get a bunch of no-click users, they are more inclined to come back to the platform in the future.

53:37And maybe some of that eventually lands in clicks. The other thing I hadn't thought of, and I thought it was a great point, which is that Google currently runs multiple search boxes.

53:48Tracy Alloway:Are you looking at the Mahalo article and cracking up right now? I'm sorry, I am. Step four is experiment with different mallets. It's so good. I just really want to play the xylophone. It's so good. It's so good. Step five is practice regularly. I think AI is much better. It's so good, isn't it? It's like the biggest steaming pile of garbage I've ever seen on the internet. 15 years or 10 years before anyone has ever... Can we have Calacanis back on the podcast just to talk about this? We should have Jason back on the podcast just to like grill him about what exactly he was thinking and his sins against the internet for having put this on there.

54:34Well, he was an early adopter of non-AI slob.

54:38Tracy Alloway:But anyway, that point about there are multiple search boxes already, right? There's the YouTube search box. You're still laughing. I'm sorry. I was trying to make eye contact with you and not look at my computer. It's so ridiculous. I'm just thinking about the silo phones. Should we just leave it? Yeah. All right. Okay. All right. Yes. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dash O 'Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks.

55:10Tracy Alloway:And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about AI and human-generated slop, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

55:52Thank you.

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