Inside the Booming Market for Dinosaur Fossils

23:56And a lot of people would come up to us and say, I did not know you could buy a T-Rex. I did not know you could buy a Triceratops skull. And what the auction houses did was kind of pump these items into the news and into auctions. And then a whole generation of tech bros and private collectors kind of descended on the market with advisors and kind of that contributed to the explosion in prices. So to give you an example, specifically, you know, there was a complete triceratops skeleton that sold around 2022, 2023. Don't quote me on the exact date, but Big John in Paris, which made kind of circa$8 million.

24:37The prior record for a triceratops skeleton was, I mean, I don't know of any that made more than a million at public auction. I know that Christie's had one that went unsold for half a million dollars 10 plus years earlier. So the price jumps have been extraordinary. And there are many other examples like that where, you know, since Stan, we've had, you know, Hector. We had a raptor that made kind of 12, 13 million pounds. We've had the Apex, which was bought by Ken Griffin, made 45 million. We had the last Sotheby's specimen made 37 million. And these are all numbers which are unheard of in the dinosaur fossil market.

25:12So, and the issue is that a lot of these specimens are being either consigned by kind of primary dinosaur hunters or landowners to auction. And then once they've kind of made this sale, it's very difficult for them to then sell something at the prior prices, you know, 5, 10 years prior. So, yeah, that's kind of gives you a bit of context about the complete change in pricing structure in this industry.

25:38Tracy Alloway:So I take it that finding a complete skeleton is rare. Is there a lot of transaction activity and just like, you know, here's a femur, here's a foot, here's a nose? You sound so unimpressed. I'd be so excited about a dinosaur femur. Yeah, sure, I would too. But are there a lot of transactions? Or do you, let's say you have part of a skull. Do you wait and say maybe we can find some more and build something? And also, is it legitimate in your space to create an assemblage? It's like we have a complete X, but it's from five different dinosaurs. But it is all dinosaur bones, so we put them together.

26:21Tracy Alloway:Is there anything going on like that? So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All good questions. I mean, we, so as a gallery, our business model is to deal in very few, but you know, the very best and not to sell composites, uh, and to sell fragments, but only when they're kind of, I think aesthetic or beautiful or kind of historically interesting. Okay. Uh, but there are loads of sellers for, uh, for the cheaper part of cheaper, kind of smaller bones. And that's a huge market. You can go to mineral shows and you can buy teeth in the hundreds of dollars. You can also buy very much cheaper if you buy non-American dinosaur fossils.

27:00And there are, there are dealers that will sell composites and everybody will take a kind of commercial decision on whether to assemble something or sell it as a fragment. I prefer where possible to kind of not over restore so that you don't look at something and say, I have a, you know, something which in bone mass or sorry, in mass is kind of 20 % original 80 % resin. I'd rather show a fragment. But yeah, look, I can tell you, I personally have, I have a Triceratops horn at home. I have a couple of T-Rex teeth at home. So I think they're cool.

27:32Tracy Alloway:I'm looking at your website. Yeah. There's a T-Rex or possibly Gorgosaurus. I've never heard of that dinosaur. Gorgosaurus, yeah. Tooth for sale for 8 ,500 pounds. Yeah. Seems affordable. Well, you'd get a discount as well. Next time we're in London, Joe. It's a nice big tooth. It looks nice. Maybe I'll get it. Yeah, but we're not sure. and that one, which of the two it is. So we kind of cautious. Yeah.

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29:48You become what you spend on, and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts. AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically, so your team can spend their time on what actually compounds. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. So just to Joe's question, could I make a living basically being a dinosaur fossil assemblage person and then just charging a massive markup as I sort of collect various bones and try to create a fully formed skeleton? then? Yes and no, because this is the thing about the market maturing is that, strictly speaking, you know, private collectors should be advised and they should be kind of not acquiring things unless they know for certain that they've been assembled correctly, they are original to the piece and, you know, you aren't taking composites.

30:43But in recent years, because the market has kind of had so much demand, there are people who have acquired pieces that maybe should not have done or paid prices they shouldn't have done. But that's something I expect to decrease with time because of the increased scrutiny that should be coming into these fossils as a result of kind of the higher numbers. Yeah, and then the other thing to say is that it's very competitive. Like if you want to buy a great dinosaur fossil today, you can't just go down a promenade of galleries and you can walk in and say, oh, I'd like to buy a T-Rex. Could you show me what's behind the curtain?

31:16That doesn't exist. I mean, if you want to buy an amazing dinosaur fossil, you know, you're looking at having to kind of pre-buy it, pre-acquire it prior to prepping. So what we do with clients, for example, is a client recently, I sold an amazing complete skeleton. It's either a Marsosaurus or it's a completely unknown new species to a private collector who wanted to have it go on public display. So it's being loaned to the Colchester Museum in the UK. And it's kind of something that this private collector wants to be studied and he wants it to be kind of made available to science. And I don't know if his plan at some point will be to donate it or to what his plans is, but he's a very kind of philanthropic person.

31:55But in that scenario, what we had to do was I met the client years ago. We agreed on the strategy, which was to buy an amazing, complete skeleton. Then I consistently sent the client kind of propositions of specimens as they were being discovered. And I said, listen, this has just been found. This is what's been found so far. This is how much the price is to the landowner. This is how much I envision it will cost to prep. You need to pre-buy this if you want this specimen, because by the time this is acquired and prepped and complete, I mean, we're competing against the kind of sovereign wealth fund or kind of petrodollar estates.

32:36It's just much more difficult. Sotheby's, Christie's, we'll never be able to get a price and it might not be able to acquire it. So that's what people have to do to buy really great dinosaur fossils, usually. it's unusual for someone to be able to kind of walk in and buy something amazing at a kind of reasonable price. Actually, that reminds me, but who's the archetypal buyer for these things? And has that shifted over time as the market becomes more prominent, I guess? It has. So as you could probably guess, it's very tech science heavy. So we have clients of all ages, but what's interesting is the dinosaur fossil clients are much younger than kind of the antiquities or islamic art clients in general it's a younger demographic and also you know really skewed towards tech and science it's a lot of people that grew up with jurassic park that find it amazing yeah i would also add that our gallery is very museum centric so we try where possible to work with museums so often for example we where we can and we always have we give museums first rights on whatever we find we consult museum scholars and curators and also we've had where possible actually what we're doing in the dinosaur space is we are introducing private collectors to museums and we are helping museums acquire specimens by kind of you know well finding the private donors to acquire the specimens for the museums.

34:01And we had one of the ones, because I know that you guys are going to touch on science and whether or not the private market kind of takes away from science and research. So just to kind of jump into that question.

34:16Tracy Alloway:It's exactly where I was going to go next. I imagine. So obviously it's very sad in some instances where as a result of the private trade, specimens are not available to museums or they might be lost to science. but as a kind of commercial dealer I do believe that on the balance the public is better off for the private because of the private trade as a result of kind of so many dinosaurs would not ordinarily be discovered if it were not for the private trade and also we have we try where possible and of course no one is perfect we have managed to make privately discovered dinosaur fossils to be able to find their way to museums as a result of private buyers so last year we had a high profile sale of a completely new species, which we acquired.

35:04We showed to the Natural History Museum in the UK. They loved the specimen. They really wanted it. They said this would be a transformative piece for their collection. And then we placed it on kind of unconditional reserve for them and went out and tried to find a private buyer. And six to nine months later, we found a private collector who agreed to acquire it for the museum and also make funds available for research. So that's an instance where because of the private trade, we've been able to do something good for kind of the public and for the museums that we work with.

35:36Tracy Alloway:That makes a ton of sense, of course, the fact that if there's a lot of money in the space, then you elicit more discovery and then it's good for science, et cetera. Those agreements where it's like, okay, I buy a dinosaur and then I put it in a museum. Is there a time component? Can I ever take it back eventually? Like, okay, I agree to place it for 10 years or two years or something, or am I expected to sort of permanently give it to the museum to hold? It's case dependent. So there are a lot of museums that will shy away or completely forbid interaction with the private market. And then there are some which are much more willing or excited to do so.

36:17And, you know, I understand the sensitivities around it, but each museum is different. You know, there are many that will just not accept the loan full stop. But you have to kind of really try to build trust and, you know, for example, be very upfront with the museum. I'm arranging this loan not because I want to increase the value of the specimen so it can be sold at auction in three years time. And this is how I will make you feel comfortable. This is the private buyer. His plan is genuinely to donate it. And it's quite an interesting opportunity, really, because as we entered the dinosaur fossil space, we realized that when you visit an art museum, you look on the walls and you see lines of art patrons.

37:00And when you visit the natural history museums, that doesn't really exist because there isn't that same ecosystem for patron groups or friends or collectors because it's a recently developing market. So hopefully, and of course, you know, like with every market, there's the benefits and the disadvantages that the market will kind of cultivate the next generation of patrons that will interact with museums. I mean, I don't know what Ken Griffin's plan is for Apex, but, you know, he's as soon as he acquired it, it's on public display in New York. And, you know, I think everyone's kind of enjoying looking at it and visiting the museum.

37:38And I would imagine that maybe, you know, that he's thinking in his mind that he's going to donate it or gift it at some point. Would you expect there to be more speculative interest in the market as it develops? Because that's something we're very used to seeing in the art market, right? Someone buys a painting and thinks of it as an investment, not just something nice to hang on their wall. Are we going to start to see the same thing with dinosaur bones? I think we have seen that. people often come to us and say, okay, would you recommend, and I have it with friends, friends, you know, when I meet my school friends, they always say, come on, Sal, find me a bone.

38:13And I always say, it's kind of consistent. It's a, my best friend's always, I can't believe you've not found me a triceratopscara. And I always say, you, you, you, you can't, you can't buy as an investor. You have to buy because you love, you love it. You, you, you're kind of inspired by the history by the, you know, it's, it is, it's awe inspiring to stand in front of a kind of 66 million years old creature that roamed the earth and it's, it's jaw dropping, but I don't, I don't believe in kind of buying for speculative reasons because there are so many unknowns, you know, it might be that America, the US decides to kind of shut the private trade down and suddenly, you know, you may be one of the few people in the world with a triceratops skull in good condition and suddenly it's worth 100 times what you paid for it.

39:00It may be that actually property prices go up and no one has the space for a dinosaur fossil in their home anymore. I mean, there's so many variables. There has been a lot of speculative buying and you do see that with pieces that have been acquired at auction and then six months later or one year later, they're offered for sale again privately as soon as the auction is finished. And that's not the behavior of kind of a genuine collector who wants to acquire and live with something for decades. I really don't enjoy working with people who have that is their plan. You have to just trust that, you know, you do your research and your due diligence and you acquire at the fair market value, especially in this space.

39:36It's unreasonable and it should be kind of a massive red flag for someone to sell you something which is kind of under the prices of the current market because it's so competitive. All you can do is kind of acquire at a fair value with an honest description of what you're buying, with an understanding of exactly how good it is, how complete it is. And we can go into, for example, what to look for when acquiring a dinosaur fossil. Like why, what gives it value? Great, tell us. Wait, can I ask a question before you go into that more generally? Do bones from carnivores seem to have more value than bones from herbivores?

40:10Yes. People come to us and say, I want teeth. I want something scary. I want something that I can put in my home. You come around the corner and it gives you the fright of your life. Generally speaking, carnivorous animals, which are kind of meat eater skeletons, T-Rex, Gorgosaurus, Allosaurus, juvenile T-Rex, juvenile Allosaurus, etc. They're way more sought after. They're very competitive. I mean, you know, if I found a T-Rex skull in great condition with all the bells and whistles, there's a queue of five, six people kind of waiting for it, ready to acquire it from an email photo to send money in advance, waiting for it to come.

40:47Herbophores aren't as popular, but then again, the iconic herbivores like a Triceratops skull is very popular. What I hope to happen, and this comes to value and where we distinguish ourselves from other dinosaur dealers is that I would hope that people kind of increasingly look at actually what they're buying, you know, not just the brand. Am I buying a T-Rex? Am I buying a triceratops? No. Am I buying something that is colored in on a document, a bone map and described as being very complete? That's not how I would suggest anybody to deal in dinosaur fossils. you need to understand what is the kind of anticipated or the usual condition of that particular type of specimen so some specimens are usually discovered much more complete than others so you may buy for example i sold a nanosaurus skeleton which is a small jurassic skeleton about a meter and a half 150 million years old they're usually discovered very incomplete because they're very they're small the bones are brittle there are very few skulls that have ever been found If you have a nanosaurus skeleton that might have kind of 50 % of the bones represented and some of the kind of the feet, the claws or the, you know, there, then that's amazing.

41:57But 50 % of a larger herbivore with kind of thick, durable bones like a triceratops is actually not as interesting or as exciting. And also, it doesn't matter how many bones are there, but actually what are the key bones? You know, what are you looking for in value or in kind of historical interest? So T-Rex skull. let's say you buy a T-Rex skull, but all the teeth are not original. You know, that's a pretty crazy thing to do. Or a Triceratops skull, which is iconic because of its, you know, it's the three horned dinosaur. It's got these amazing horns that, you know, descend out of its skull. It doesn't matter how many parts, how much of the frill you have or how much of the kind of lower jaw you have.

42:39What you want is you want the, you need those horns to be there. And so what I think will happen over time is that holistically people will look at dinosaur fossils and say, I don't care. It's not about, the branding is important, but it's more about, you know, what am I buying exactly? You know, forgetting how the industry used to work in the past and actually kind of taking a much more measured, slower, deeper kind of investigatory kind of analysis as to what's complete and what's not complete, what's interesting and what's not complete. Sorry that I give you very long answers to each of your questions.

43:11Tracy Alloway:No, no, there's so much information that it's totally fine. I actually want to go back to something you said, because when you think about market structure, you did say one thing that sort of feels familiar, perhaps, which is that you could get a better shot at acquiring something at a good price if you buy it a little bit earlier in the process. That by the time the dinosaur has been completely excavated and documented and assembled, etc., it's going to go to some rich collector in the Gulf or something like that. Talk to us a little bit more. Some of these collectors or people who are waiting for that T-Rex skull or whatever, how early can they, if they're so inclined, get in on the process?

43:59Tracy Alloway:Can they front money towards a paleontologist who has a good reason to think there might be something there? Can they buy a stake of an excavation project, period? Like for the active collector. Venture capital for velociraptors. Essentially, yeah, that's right. VC in some sort. Like buy a stake in the expedition. Yes, they do. I don't think a private collector should do that. I guess if you can and you have the money and it's fun and it's kind of exciting, fair enough. But I don't recommend someone to do it that way. How come? Very high risk. You may end up acquiring or finding a dinosaur skeleton that you actually don't have the space for or you don't want or is not what you ideally wanted.

44:45Very hard to manage. If you're sitting in New York or you're sitting in London, you need to trust that the team that you are working with, I mean, when they find a bone, how do you know they're not putting it in their pocket? You know, how, how do you know your, uh, I mean, we're talking about really remote places where you, you have no idea. Uh, you know, I had a, uh, you know, there are also all types of things. Like there are situations where, you know, you, you acquire something and the seller holds back a couple of bones. And then six months later, you get a phone call saying, by the way, I did find a couple other bones that, uh, you would really want to buy now.

45:19Now, and I'm going to extort you for the, uh, uh, yeah, that's happened too many times to me. So, yeah, I think as a dealer, I feel like I've aged disproportionately to my age. But you need to kind of work with a small number of people you trust and try wherever possible, because life is short, to kind of delegate the headache and the stress and the risk, in my opinion.

45:41Tracy Alloway:Is anyone working on bringing dinosaurs back to life? This would be the ultimate risk for the asset class. Yeah, right. Now we have new supplies of dinosaur bones. Well, I mean, I know that's sort of fantastical, right, because of Jurassic Park. You know, maybe we're going to find a little bit of DNA and some amber somewhere. But it's not like – wasn't there something – they brought a wolf. There was some cover of a magazine recently, and they said, oh, this wolf that had gone extinct, we actually brought it back somehow. Isn't there some work being done on science and reviving extinct species?

46:15Tracy Alloway:I think there are. There are the obvious ethical issues of it. I mean, you know, once you open Pandora's box and you start kind of bringing back to life, you know, where does it end? Sure. People are always talking about it. I even think Elon Musk did a post recently about Jurassic Park. I mean, so I'm sure it will happen in our lifetime. Whether it will be good or not, I don't know. Whoa. You're sure it'll happen in our lifetime? Definitely. Don't you think with the kind of advent of AI and aren't we going to be surrounded by dinosaurs in 20 years' time? Yeah. The Bloomberg office headquarters is going to have Triceratops roaming it.

46:48Oh, this is a big call. Yeah, this is a big call.

46:52Tracy Alloway:I wasn't expecting. Particularly from an antiquities dealer. Someone who's a pro is like, oh, yeah, this is definitely coming to Jurassic Park Center. If I had to bet, I'd bet they're not going to reappear. But, you know. Okay. But I'm just joking. I'm certain they would not be as plentiful as to be in the Bloomberg office in our lifetimes. I'm sure of that, at least. You know, when you ask a little kid what they want to be, they either want to be like, you know, a popular thing to be a paleontologist. And I can't imagine by and large, there's a lot of paleontology jobs. But given the trends, would you say this is becoming a more plausible career option if there's more money in the space and then more economic reason to find dinosaurs?

47:36Tracy Alloway:Could this be that maybe more kids get to live out their dreams of being a paleontologist? 100 percent if you imagine a lot of these private collectors will set up private museums and i would go one step further you know that's exactly and that underscores the interest in dinosaur fossils because and this is why we kind of pivoted to this this market because if you type into google modigliani or jeff coons and you look at the search results the number of people who search have searched for jeff coons or whatever it's totally eclipsed by the searches for a triceratops or a t-rex there's universal interest in these dinosaurs and actually whatever we do at art fair we're kind of inundated by children and by people of all ages who come up to us and say isn't that 50 million isn't that 100 million i say no it's actually half a million or no it's a it's 55 000 pounds or it's eight and a half seven thousand uh for a fast sale but you know but but um that's the that's that explains why dinosaurs have kind of exploded in price because people, especially children, love them.

48:38And they are much more universally kind of admired than a lot of the modern masters or kind of art market categories that will fall out of favor every five or 10 years. Yeah, I agree with you, kind of, your call on that.

48:50Tracy Alloway:I'll tell my kids tonight that maybe they should go into this. Thank you so much. Yeah, it's fantastic. Thank you so much. Pleasure to meet you guys. And thank you for the opportunity. Yeah, and we're going to be in London in May. So we might actually take you up on the offer. We'd love to see it. I'm looking forward. And yeah, please send me a message and come over and I'll show you some cool things. Great. Take care. All the best.

49:24Joe, that was a really fun conversation. There is something to that final point from Sal, this idea that there is a universality of interest in dinosaurs, right? It feels like everyone, if you have any sort of humanity in you, has gone through a dinosaur stage when you were a kid.

49:41Tracy Alloway:Absolutely. And, you know, this idea that art will go in and out of style. Dinosaurs are forever. Dinosaurs are forever. And so probably from the perspective of a collector or a museum and you want to have a lot of interest, dinosaurs are the way to go. And then just this idea that I do imagine that there is, and, you know, I talked about this, a little bit of anxiety about there being private trade and ownership of them. But if the plus side is that it makes excavation more economically viable, and if in many of these instances the dinosaurs do end up in museums for scientists to study regardless, it sounds like a win -win for the most part.

50:25Tracy Alloway:It sounds pretty good. I think there are still some environmental issues. We probably should have talked about this a little bit, but there are still some environmental concerns about large scale digs. I know the mammoth bone industry or mammoth tusk, can't talk, industry in Russia has been something of an issue. So that could be also something to think about. mitigating factor but i do think like crowding in that private capital i mean clearly has led to some interesting discoveries already which sal was talking about this idea that they they discovered a new species by the way i want to go back to the beginning of this conversation so sal mentioned a nanosaurus skeleton here is a nanosaurus what does that look like to you yes it kind of looks like a chicken a little bit yeah to me it looks exactly like a pheasant this is the same this is the same thing okay great you're right capitulation you're right and then it's great this is a good example of a i i wouldn't have made that but yes it has those little arms by the way one other thing um you were talking about the gold-plated dinosaur skeleton in miami our producer carmen points out that it is not, in fact, a dinosaur skeleton.

51:40It's a woolly mammoth skeleton. So your kids have more ammunition now to make fun of you for misidentifying dinosaurs.

51:48Tracy Alloway:You know, the thing is, I really thought that was, I didn't know. So what's a woolly mammoth? That's not a dinosaur? That's just like another animal? No, it's a hairy elephant. A hairy prehistoric elephant that died. But they were also prehistoric. I think so, yeah. Right, that makes sense. God, I feel like we're going to get emails from a million, maybe not a million, a few paleontologists out there complaining about some of our classifications. So I apologize in advance if I got that wrong. I really am very ignorant about this. If it looks like an old animal, I just assume it's a dinosaur. That's my definition of a dinosaur.

52:19A prehistoric mammal, I think, is an accurate way of describing woolly mammoths.

52:26Tracy Alloway:Also, look at a pterodactyl. That's a dinosaur. I'm sorry. Well, so I looked this up after you mentioned that because I was very surprised. I did not know this. It's from a category that is very closely related to dinosaurs. So it's the way people make distinctions between like silosaurs and dinosaurs. I don't really understand them, all those distinctions, but apparently, you know, scientists who are experts in this have agreed. It's a meaningful distinction such that, and it's from the Jurassic period. Okay, whatever. It's from the late Jurassic. It's a dinosaur. I have something embarrassing to admit, which is for the longest time, I kept saying petrodactyl instead of petrodactyl.

53:04You're not the first, I'm sure. All right. Shall we leave it there?

53:08Tracy Alloway:Let's leave it there. Okay. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmin, Dash O 'Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. And for more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. and you can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about the fossil market, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

53:43And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

54:00Thank you.

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