Now There's a Helium Shortage and It Affects More Than Balloons

23:55And there's no one drilling for conventional gas anymore. So, you know, that's sort of the issue there. And, you know, we can get into why we sold it off. It won't be a terribly... Well, who bought it? Where'd it go?

24:08Tracy Alloway:Because I can't imagine like, oh, we bought the strategic helium reserve. Let's just go make a bunch of balloons. Like, I assume that didn't happen. So who bought it and what'd they do with it? So we actually stockpiled two things during the Cold War, helium and tin. Tin is also used for semiconductors. We sold them both off prior to right now when we started building semiconductor fabs in the U.S. So that's sort of not a great choice necessarily. With regard to the helium reserve, when they originally started, they took the helium out of the gas stream. And to your point, Tracy, they put it into an old natural gas field in Amarillo.

24:43So that's why the helium reserve was there. And they filled that up. But the government never appropriated funds to pay for the helium. So the Bureau of Land Management, or their predecessor, basically owed the government$300 million for this because no funds were appropriated. And that$300 million was accruing interest to the point where, I think in 1996, Newt Gingrich got into power and it was time to start talking about privatizing things. and Christopher Cox went to the House floor and basically said, you know, do you know the government? This dumb government has$1.4 billion of party balloon debt.

25:23And a bill was quickly passed and, you know, signed by Clinton. And we decided to sell the whole thing off. The original plan, I believe, was to sell it off in equal parts over 30 years for exactly$1.4 billion with no regard to the market just to pay off the government's so-called party balloon debt. And the physics community was up in arms about this, but, you know, they don't have that many senators.

25:49Tracy Alloway:That's amazing. And I feel like we could do a whole episode just on the helium reserve. But serious question, I guess, or maybe a related question. How difficult is helium to store? Because we're used to, you know, maybe you go into the party balloon shop in the party Balloon District of downtown New York, and you see canisters of helium gas lying there. But on the other hand, I imagine you're talking about the world's smallest molecule, as you said. It must escape quite easily. So if you decide to get into the party balloon business and you're going to take over where Party City left off, you know, by the way, the only time people usually, friends on the street, bring up helium with me is every time there's a helium shortage.

26:34And we're now looking at probably the fifth in the last 20 years, Party City goes bankrupt. And that's the big event in the industry. But if you wanted to get into that industry and you wanted to get canisters of helium, and I hope being an honest person, you would get canisters of pure helium, because I've heard a lot about people, you know, going 50-50 and your balloons don't stay in the air as long as you remember them when you were a kid.

26:57Tracy Alloway:Scandal. The helium will be leaking around the threads of the valve a little bit each day. And the world trade of helium is actually done in the form of a liquid where a liquid helium ISO container can be put on a ship. It can hold roughly five times more than a, what used to be called a tube trailer of, you know, sort of a two foot in diameter, 40 foot long tube. And you'll see these on the highway where there's about 10 of them stacked on the back of a tractor trailer. That's a steel tube trailer. Now, because of the hydrogen industry, there is carbon fiber overwrap trailers that can hold about a third as much as a liquid helium container.

27:40So it changes the transportation differential a little bit. And that's what we use. But it's shipped around the world as a liquid. And as a liquid, it is perishable. So that's part of the reason that whenever, you know, the sort of The timeline here is I have nothing interesting to say about geopolitics, but the Qataris have said they are going to wait until hostilities have ceased and then they will restart LNG production. And I read that'll take three or four weeks or something. The helium industry is going to take longer than that to recover from this because there's only about 3000 of these liquid helium containers in the world.

28:18They're highly, highly specialized because you're talking about taking a huge amount by weight of liquid helium, which is at four degrees Kelvin, and putting it in a container where it's essentially a very fancy thermos. But this has to be hardy enough that you can put it on a truck and put it on a ship. But it's warming up the whole time. And the very best containers can hold the helium for about 45 days before the pressure gets too high and they'll essentially vent themselves. So it makes it very perishable and it makes the containers very important, where I would assume that the Qatari LNG facilities had filled a lot of liquid helium containers that are now stuck somewhere.

28:59And those are slowly warming up. And on the other hand, to deal with a crisis like this, the big industrial gas companies are now going to have to scramble to move containers to other sources to try and get helium out of storage where they've built some private storage since the Federal Reserve is now essentially gone. And that's going to cause a lot of problems because it's just a very limited supply of these.

29:21Tracy Alloway:I just want to say, and I really mean this with no offense, but any time that we have a guest who sort of is talking a lot about science and technology, I do a little bit of live fact checking. I like look up all these things. And it's like, yep, we really did have something called the Helium Privatization Act in 2016, just about$1.3 billion. And party balloon debt. It really is perceived to be important in quantum computing. It really is perceived to be important in small modular reactors. So I just, you know, for the listeners out there, because I can't, you know, I don't know anything about any of this stuff.

29:55Tracy Alloway:This all seems to check out. Helium seems to be pretty important. Now, here's something I've learned. I have learned over the years, which is that any time we are talking about niche commodities, it's often like harder to find anything resembling spot prices at all, including a lot of the rare earths and stuff. Sometimes you'll see these tickers, but they're like ancient or not up to date or whatever or whatever that maybe there was a futures market at one point, but it like got discontinued in 2018 or something. There's actually literally nothing on the terminal about helium pricing. And tell us about why that is and how transparent is the helium market and what is the cost of a ton of helium or whatever.

30:37Tracy Alloway:What is the denomination of helium in terms of how much is sold in a chunk? Tell us about that market. Yeah, so it's a pretty unique market. I mean, there used to be more markets like this, but companies like Bloomberg and many others have helped to make things a lot more efficient. In general, the price to the end user, it's considered to be about a 6 billion cubic foot per year market and worth about$6 billion a year. So that implies about$1 ,000 per MCF to the end user. And, you know, that's MCF is a thousand cubic feet. That's the standard denomination that they use in natural gas. So that implies that it's a dollar for one cubic foot.

31:18And since you insisted on bringing a helium balloon into the studio, I would fact check you and say, what did you pay for that?

31:25Tracy Alloway:Oh, well, I actually don't know. But definitely more than a dollar. Yeah. And definitely that's not a cubic foot. I'm going to ask our producer and then he can tell us in a few minutes. But keep going. While we wait for a response for our producer, what do you tell us about the current market environment? And how 2026 looks versus 2025 versus 2016, et cetera. So the market had been trending down since the last shortage, which ended in around 2022 when the Russians brought production online. And that was a bit of a surprise to the industry because a German firm, Lindy, had been involved with building the Russian facility, their Amur gas project, which processes natural gas liquids and other things out of a big gas stream.

32:07and also recovers the helium from their Chianda and Kovikta fields. And the general consensus because of the Ukraine war is that the Russians wouldn't be able to get that plant to run without the help of the Germans. And they started up the first train and had a very large fire, and they started up the second train and had a very large explosion. So everyone has sort of written that off. But they were able to get that production up and running and start bringing it into the market. There are sanctions on bringing liquid helium containers to, sanctions might not be the right word, but I believe there's a State Department restriction on taking liquid helium containers from the U.S.

32:49to Russia because it's dual use. It can have a military application. There's also sanctions on taking Russian helium at all the places like Europe. So the Russians went into production and basically flooded the Chinese market and it sort of spread out from there a little bit. it's somewhat limited the impact they were able to have because of the lack of liquid helium containers, the lack of end markets for them. But prices have been trending down. I will say, in answer to your question, why isn't it obvious what the helium price is? There's a confidentiality clause in every helium contract. So we sell on long-term contracts, primarily to big industrial gas companies, but those are all confidential.

33:32And And certainly from a commodity trader point of view, having an opaque market probably is a pretty good thing. But maybe that originated with the fact that the government was selling the helium for exactly$1.4 billion and no one wanted to have a futures market there. But also, as you guys know, futures markets sort of need to be deliverable. And there's no longer any sort of global hub. You could have potentially when the Federal Reserve was a public facility where you could inject gas back into it. You could have built a futures market around that, but no one did.

34:08Tracy Alloway:It kind of reminds me of plane delivery contracts where, you know, the announcement comes out and it's always at a list price. So, you know, like an airline buys a hundred million dollars worth of Boeing planes. But the contracts are so custom and opaque and individualized that like no one really ever knows how much they sold for. That's super interesting. Our producer Dash, by the way, got back to us and he says the balloon cost$9, which is more than I would have expected. But what do I know about balloons? But we're at a helium crisis. Yeah, well.

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36:50Tracy Alloway:Do that. Do that. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. First of all, from your vantage point in the market, what supply disruptions are you seeing right now? And then secondly, how long does it actually take those disruptions to work their way into the market and start to hit prices, given that we just talked about how most of the stuff is selling on a very long term forward basis? Yeah. Well, the second part of your question is particularly germane. But the Qatari facilities in total were producing north of 30 percent of world helium supply. And given that there's no federal helium reserve anymore and given that this is a perishable commodity, essentially, because it starts warming up once you fill a liquid helium container.

37:41That's a huge problem. The longer this goes on, it becomes more and more of a problem. But to your point on timing, there's a leading helium consultant who we've worked with for a long time who I think put it very well where he described the situation last week as it's like a tsunami where the water has already gone out, but we're all still on the beach and the wave hasn't hit yet. And the last cargoes that left Qatar are probably just now getting delivered to customers. So, you know, the real problems are coming in the next month.

38:12Tracy Alloway:This is how everyone, by the way, in Energies are thinking about this moment right now, because by and large, markets are up for oil, gas, et cetera, but maybe, you know, not hyper catastrophic levels. And everyone's like, this better open up soon because the water has come out and we're going to have real problems the longer we have these disruptions. It's interesting, too, like this idea that, you know, here's something I wondered about. And it again relates to some of the conversations we've had about rare earths in the past. The nominal size of this market, even right now, does not sound very large, a$6 billion global market.

38:50Tracy Alloway:This is the same thing. We talked to Javier Blas here at Bloomberg about rare earths. The total dollar amounts for this stuff are not that high. And it always makes me wonder, does that impair exploration and production appetites that it's like, look, yeah, we could go looking for new fields. We could drill here, et cetera. But this just even in the best of times is not going to be a great market. And so we have like other things on our mind to do. And I'm curious, like whether small nominal markets make it harder to mobilize capital. 100 percent and you know i don't know uh what the price of uranium is today but that's a similarly sized market and you know what you see in these industries when prices um you know go up or there's a shortage is essentially people start uh doing exploration at the desk where they're saying who almost found this in the past because it's too expensive to go do it from first principles if you think about the size of the oil and gas market it's what hundreds of times larger than helium so yeah you know the only people who could afford to explore at scale in north america were the oil and gas drillers so we've found a niche where we're able to do that because it's a lot cheaper than in some other places but that is really what separates us as a company in terms of we've been focused on grassroots exploration saying the best stuff hasn't been found yet And, you know, in those other industries, I think that's a problem going forward for a number of critical minerals and niche commodities where you can say, well, hypothetically, there's rare earths in North Carolina.

40:30But how much do you want to spend looking for them? Because it can cost hundreds of millions of dollars to go drill holes in the ground.

40:36Tracy Alloway:You know, you said earlier that there had been five previous helium shortages, I guess, in recent times. What happened during those? How much substitution did you see of alternative gases? I guess I don't know what those would be, Neon, maybe. And then how much rerouting did you see from one geographic area to another? I guess what I'm asking is how flexible is the industry that relies on helium? So answering that in reverse, the industrial gas companies that really distribute the helium and move it around the world and break it into smaller quantities to serve the end user. They do a phenomenal job with this, but it's a very, very difficult problem.

41:21So when there's a shortage, there's absolutely a problem, particularly because of the specialized logistics. And there's not a bunch of extra helium containers lying around and things like that. In terms of, what was your question about the previous helium shortages?

41:36Tracy Alloway:Yeah, basically, how much substitution did you see? Like, are there other gases like neon that you can use instead of helium? And that basically just how easy is it for people to adapt to an actual helium shortage? So the first shortage was in 2007. And back then we had a lot more options in terms of in Europe. They've never really had a lot of helium the way we have in the U.S. So for that reason, they don't really have party balloons over there, which is the most visible thing for the average person. I don't know that. But they also have always used a lot more argon in welding. Helium is used in inert gas welding because it is inert, because it has high heat transfer.

42:19They've always used more argon. We've always used more helium in the U.S. And there was a lot of substitution of saying, okay, we still need helium if you're welding stainless steel, titanium, aluminum if you're doing thicker welds. But in some of the lower spec welding applications, we were able to substitute argon. And you've also seen recycling where, you know, if you're doing semiconductor lithography, you can't really recycle because you're putting other things in the gas. But if you're purely doing it for a cooling loop, you can start to recycle. And my understanding is that the MRI manufacturers prior to 2007, they would build an MRI, fill it up with liquid helium, make sure it works at the factory, and then just vent it into the atmosphere and ship the unit and it would be refilled when it got there.

43:04So there's certainly been demand destruction from that. The other side of that coin is that there's very little opportunity for additional recycling or additional substitution at this point. And, you know, I sort of tell people, if you're still using helium after four global shortages, you have to use helium.

43:22Tracy Alloway:There are helium balloons in Europe. I fact checked that. They do exist. They're perhaps not as popular. I actually found a, this is a very European, this is the most European looking document I've ever seen, which is this really serious like think tank report on the intentional release of balloons and confetti in the Baltic Sea area. Scoping study, a collection of existing information regulation and best practices published by the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission is a 50 page paper on the release of balloons. Anyway, sorry, but I take your point that I'm and I but I also found a Reddit post someone asking where they can get helium balloons.

44:03Tracy Alloway:So maybe they're not. Maybe they're not. If the EU has regulations on it, I'm willing to believe they've got it. Now, there's there's something going on there. You know, the thing, the big takeaway I have from this conversation is just going back to thinking about that 30 year release schedule from the helium reserve. And especially if you're not doing it at something resembling a market price. That must have just obliterated any like private sector activity, because if there's going to be this fixed supply coming out to the market and it's not even price sensitive in any way, why would you ever like build out private production at that point?

44:41A hundred percent. That's been a big issue. And, you know, when I first started looking at this issue in 2011, because my dad was involved in, you know, trying to advocate for fusion fission hybrid reactors, and he chaired a Brookings MIT conference on this, and he was very disappointed. he said the smartest guy there told him he was wasting his time because we were going to run out of helium before they could get the technology working and uh you know i fully he called me and i said i thought that was for party balloons now i'm cursed to be on the other side of that conversation for the rest of my life but the american physical society at that time you know put out a statement saying not only should you not sell this helium is the one thing we should be building a bigger stockpile of for the future.

45:26And, you know, I sort of compared the situation to what happened with uranium in the megatons to megawatts program after the fall of the Soviet Union. We took a bunch of their former Soviet nuclear weapons, we turned them into power plant fuel, just because of proliferation reasons, and sold that into the market. And similar thing, you know, you dump a bunch of supply into the market for a long time. And then there's no incentive for exploration and uranium prices went up, you know, 500 percent in the early 2000s. So that's certainly been a factor in terms of, you know, why haven't people been doing this the whole time?

46:02Tracy Alloway:Well, OK, on that note, you're the founder and CEO of North American Helium, and we know that helium prices are going up, even though we don't have a very good benchmark. But, you know, broadly, we know that it's going to get more expensive. What do you do with that price signal? Do you invest more? Do you expand given the limitations around, you know, exploring for LNG and things like that? What do you do? We're on the unique end of the spectrum in the industry because we're not running a$10 billion LNG project or something like that because we're producing, we're only drilling for helium from non-hydrocarbon sources.

46:39So we're essentially looking for, we're drilling into older rocks that predate plant life on earth. So there's not a lot of organic material there. So you're drilling for fields of helium and nitrogen. And these exist. And, you know, where we are primarily operating in southwest Saskatchewan and Canada, they had found a field like this in the 1960s. They wrote helium legislation, which made them very unique. But because of the combination of the forced sales from the federal stockpile, keeping helium prices low, and nitrogen being worthless because it's already 80 % of the atmosphere. No one ever came back and looked at this, but we're certainly, I would say we were already going pretty fast.

47:22Certainly in an environment like this, you know, our mission is to support science and industry. So all of a sudden, this is a big problem. We're going to do everything we can to increase our rate of exploration, bringing new plants onto production, and, you know, really trying to support some of the most vital uses of helium. And we've had In previous shortages, one of the problems is it's not a question of, for the end user, it's not a question of whether or not you get the helium or not. The consequences of not getting helium across the value chain are pretty significant. If you're Party City, you go bankrupt.

47:56If you're a chip manufacturer, you have to shut down chip manufacturing. And that's, you know, the dollar amount there is just tremendous. this uh if you're running mri or the their cousin nmr which is used for drug discovery and things like that if that magnet heats up it will destroy the magnet so you're talking about your machine getting destroyed essentially um so we're very focused on supporting those vital end uses and if people can't do as much welding for a little while you know it is what it is but in general the price is very volatile because helium is a very small percentage of the cost of goods sold for all of these land uses.

48:39Tracy Alloway:Sorry, just to press on this point, I'm going to assume that you're going to make more money in the coming months as a result of helium supply getting squeezed in Qatar. What are the major choke points at your company that you would be trying to use that money to resolve? Is it actually finding new fields or is it investing in more storage capacity, transportation investment. What are you going to do with the money? It's a little bit of all of the above. Our focus has always been on the lack of reliability in the supply chain, which comes from two things. One is the extreme concentration where you've got one Exxon CO2 project in Wyoming.

49:22It's a quarter of world supply. You've got one LNG facility that's a third of world supply. You've now got production in Russia, which has its own issues. So the geopolitics and the concentration are a problem. So we've been working for the last 13 years to build a new helium hub to create helium supply from non-hydrocarbon sources in Western Canada. And for that reason, we've run a bunch of stuff in parallel. So we'll be bringing a new facility online that will increase our production by 40 % later this year. we're also drilling for you know doing exploration for the next field we're also looking at doing much more grassroots exploration for just continuing to understand the area because we have nine million acres of long-term helium rights so it takes three hours to drive across it this is you know we've identified a thousand structures from seismic data that we have not drilled yet so it's really all of those things one of the biggest things that we've been looking at is building a helium liquefier in Canada.

50:27Because right now we have nine facilities that are producing helium, and we truck all of that in carbon fiber overwrap tube trailers down to existing liquefiers in the U.S. mid-continent. And there's a lot of extra capacity down there because production's been falling in the U.S. for the last 35 years. But building a helium liquefier in Canada along the Trans-Canada Highway, which runs through the middle of our properties, really lowers the cost. It also lowers the emissions, which is something people cared a lot more about four years ago, but we still think is important, and opens up this area as more of a global hub.

51:04And also, if you think about the high-end customers, they're very concerned with purity. The average customer is taking liquid helium at grade P, which is sort of the industry standard. You can think of it as more or less five nines purity, 99.999 % pure. The leading edge chip manufacturers are now looking for six nines purity and right now that primarily either comes from exon's facility or it comes from cover so all of a sudden you've got a big issue there and if you want to think about you know i know you guys love all the weird logistical stuff that's only so many liquid helium containers in the world yeah and if you want six nines purity you don't ever want to fill that with five nines because you might get a molecule of hydrogen in there.

51:48So those containers are sort of kept separate and the fiber optic manufacturers have their own containers. So now you've got an issue where the special containers for the semiconductor firms are trapped somewhere. They've got to go somewhere else. You've got to say, well, we need more of this from the Exxon facility and maybe that's going to cause a problem somewhere else. But building our own liquefier gives us the opportunity to meet any purity and be able to sort of, you know, kind of go farm to table with the whole supply chain. Farm to table helium.

52:20Tracy Alloway:Nicholas Snyder, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots. I learned a lot about helium in that conversation. That was fantastic. Joe, Tracy, thanks so much. Really a pleasure.

52:41Tracy Alloway:Tracy, I really want to do a live episode one day in Saskatchewan with Nicholas and Marad Al-Khatib, the Lentil King of Saskatchewan. We're going to have the Helium King of Saskatchewan and the Lentil King of Saskatchewan. I think that'd be a great live event for us. I want to go scout the planes for Helium Department. Yeah, me too. And lentils, I guess. No, that was a fascinating episode. I mean, all of these niche commodities are fascinating. I will say one thing that keeps getting repeated on all of these shows, and you touched on it already, is this idea that we haven't actually seen the physical impact just yet.

53:14Tracy Alloway:And it's coming down the line. And you can imagine there are a lot of consumers of specific products out there who for now are able to say, you know, we're doing all right. but in maybe a month, maybe three months, maybe four months, if things keep going as they are. And even, frankly, if the war were to stop tomorrow, you would probably have some sort of impact. Yeah. You know what it reminds me of? May 2025. It's like the shortages are coming to the shelves because of the tariffs. Yeah. And they didn't. And then it's like. Well, but that was partially because Trump started reversing everything.

53:51Tracy Alloway:I know he did. He did. He did. But I do think we're at like this weird moment where it's like nothing ever happens, but maybe it will. But yeah, but everyone who we talk to in commodities essentially is like, we're in the phase where the water has come out. And the longer it takes for production to restart and the straight to reopen, the greater the damage is going to be. You know, I think it's like really interesting about this conversation in particular, and there are actually from a sort of economic standpoint, like several very interesting threads in there. So first of all, there's the part about how like, if you're selling helium at the same clip every year of a 30 years, you destroy any sort of semblance of a market for private production.

54:30Tracy Alloway:That's interesting. Another interesting thing is that, okay, like helium itself is sort of scarce and not all over the place. And then the scarcity of the containers to, he kept coming back to the containers. There aren't that many containers in the world because if helium can go through glass, that means it's so small and not a lot can trap it. Even the containers that exist can only hold it for so long. And then the fact that the helium that's needed for the most advanced science, as you mentioned at the end, they want the six nines purity, not the five nines purity. And so they have their own separate set of containers that like it's almost impossible to imagine like at this point, like a sort of like truly coordinated, like commodity helium, just because kind of like natural gas, so much of the story seems to be in the shipping and holding of it rather than the commodity per se no it strikes me as very similar and like helium is even more nat gas than nat gas right in the sense that we don't even have any pricing to look at basically which is just shocking to me as someone who's been staring at a bloomberg terminal for many many years it feels really weird when you can't get a price of something so there is so like typically speaking if you enter in any ticker in the terminal.

55:44Tracy Alloway:Something will come up. And there is actually a something. There's a helium fund. No, there's a helium index. But whatever it was, it was put together by the Bureau of Land Management. And they ended it in 2018. Like they stopped whatever this index is in 2018. So there is not a lot of data on helium. And I found that to be the case with a lot of the Nisha. discontinued. It's for historical purposes only, according to the DES page. Well, the other weird thing about it is it doesn't actually look that volatile at all. No. So I don't even believe the chart. Yeah, exactly. Okay. Well, if anyone wants to create some sort of pricing index for helium, let us know.

56:28Tracy Alloway:Yeah. We'd love to check it out. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more Odd Lots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash Odd Lots for a daily newsletter on all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash Odd Lots. And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about helium and balloons, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

57:04Tracy Alloway:And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

58:09Tracy Alloway:We'll be right back. store or online for easy drive up and go pickup or delivery restrictions apply see website for full terms and conditions we're in the laundry room where mike just finished two loads of laundry after working all day multiple carpools and a grocery pickup mike how'd you do it uh grand appliance they installed a pair of ge profile all-in-one washer dryer combos i load them hit start head to work when i come home two loads ready to fold i gotta say mike that's efficiency Game-changing efficiency. There it is, another assist from Grand Appliance. Learn about GE Profile Innovation at your local Grand or GrandAppliance.com.

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