This Is How Chinese Manufacturers Are Countering Trump's Trade War

22:36You may be able to build a factory in a couple. But again, that doesn't mean you have the raw materials, the people, and the other key components that you need to build out your business. And so, yeah, it's not only uncertain, but all these other countries are going, China's not doing that to us. I'll give you an example. Bangladesh, right? Population larger than Russia. They have a 0 % tariff to China. They have a 35 % to the U.S. So which one do you think they're going to prefer more? They're obviously going to do more business with China. And ultimately, this is the issue with the tariffs. If the tariff was, listen, this is the standard rate per country.

23:06Of course, it fluctuates depending on the market need and so on. We want to have more market access into your own countries for American products. There's a general understanding that that's probably what could happen. Maybe not perfect in all cases. But the reality is, is that the way it currently is, it basically puts the U.S. in a horrible light. And the people who we need the most are the ones who are suffering the most. And how long do we think that's really going to be able to last before they're like, that's enough. We're going to go with the Chinese. What does China import from Bangladesh?

23:36Because my impression is that China just does not import that much, period, not just from the U.S., but is not a big importer of anything these days, in part because of how much it's been able to build out its domestic capacity in a range of things. Scrap metal, maybe? Yeah, you know, clothes, processed raw materials. And again, China expansion 1.0 was kind of what we had up until 2020, meaning in the country you're world class at most everything you have. Now we're seeing China 2.0, which is China for the world. So it's less about Bangladesh selling to China. It's more about as the Chinese supply chains and supply chains in general continue to evolve, replicate, relocate.

24:15Now, Bangladesh, who wants a piece of that supply chain puzzle, that's what they want. And remember, one of the things that China is discussing with ASEAN and Southeast Asia is market access for your products back into China. So you could have Chinese manufacturers who move to Bangladesh because maybe it is cheaper or they have better raw material access for India for cotton, for example. And then they could produce and sell it back into China. So there's a lot of things that can actually happen across the board with supply chains that we haven't even experienced yet. Do you see anyone maybe shifting focus, Chinese companies shifting focus into selling domestically in the domestic market?

24:49Because, of course, that would dovetail with one of the government's key ambitions, which is to try to boost consumption in an economy where saving has been pretty traditional. We do see some shift to that, but domestic demand overall is not fantastic. There's a lot of hangover from the COVID years. Some Western products are still seen as a better option than Chinese products. And also, China historically is a saving nation. The Chinese are never going to buy like the Americans, ever. And this is one of the actual debates I have with economists who say they need to buy more. Sure. But what does that actually mean?

25:26What is the actual rate you have to hit? Because if you expect them to do a US rate, it's never going to happen. So you do see people and companies are still spending on machinery upgrades. They're still buying iPhones and Huayways and iTos and Xiaomi cars and everything else. But they're not spending like Americans would spend. And they're saving more than they used to. Again, I would argue a lot of that's from the COVID years, but it also has to do with other challenges inside the country, the social welfare uncertainty, these kinds of things as the population gets older. Actually, talk about what is the sort of debate that's happening in China with regards to this idea of so-called Chinese overcapacity?

26:05Because American economists love to talk about this. Sometimes it feels like COPE to me. It's like, oh, we can't compete. Therefore, they must be cheating. Right. Therefore, they must be flooding our market because they have this overcapacity. On the other hand, you do see comments from leaders in Beijing from time to time talking about the provinces engaging in unhelpful, unproductive race to the bottom competition between each province's champion, etc. Explain to us like how this question of, quote, overcapacity is sort of metabolized in China. Well, overcapacity is very much in the eye of the beholder.

26:41If you're a consumer, in many cases, you love overcapacity because prices keep going down. Right. I think you're right. Part of it is that when you actually look at the build-out of initiatives and a five-year plan structure, a lot of it is we need to do X, Y, and Z. We need to have more AI data centers. We need to have more EV companies. And so different regional governments or champions will undertake those initiatives. And so that ultimately will contribute to a build-out of the overcapacity argument. I think the other thing to realize is that when we actually look at how a lot of this is done, It's done in a way to figure out how to build out an ultimate supply chain, not an end product.

27:20Here, we want to make a Ford truck. Great. That's the goal. But in China, it's actually reversed. How do we actually figure out how to make a million Xiaomi cars every year? Well, first, you have to figure out how to deal with the raw materials, the battery suppliers, the different parts suppliers, and so on. So it's actually a full breakdown. So the overcapacity actually isn't just in the final product. It's in all the ancillary products in the tier one, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh suppliers as well throughout the entire country. Now, it's not the same in all industries. I don't want your listeners to get the wrong idea.

27:50But you take, for example, EVs. The leaders in EVs are not the SOEs. They're all the private companies. And so one of the significant shifts we've seen in China is that the SOEs and the traditional automotive manufacturers now have a far less, not just dominant position, but influence in the market. It's all the private companies generally. And so is that overcapacity? That's definitely one of the overhangs for sure. And one of the challenges, I was just in Europe last week, and this is one of the debates I keep having with them. You were fine with overcapacity for Germany and Japan. And they ultimately, they're exported much more every year than whatever China does.

28:26Not that the Chinese do it, you have an issue. It's like, come on, guys. You can't have everything. The other thing is, is that in many cases, this is how you develop world-class technology. for example in EVs is you have this intense, this neijuan, this extremely intense internal competition because that's ultimately what it is. What was the word you used? Neijuan. It's internal, basically fierce internal competition, right? There's another interesting word that has come out a lot, particularly because of the recent moves with the H20s, is called cha buozza, basically mean you're strangling us.

28:56And so the Chinese have used this in terms of the Americans saying, hey, you're strangling our industry with semiconductor conductor controls and everything else. And now there's a new discussion about the new job was in China is, oh, we have rare earths, so now we can also do it, right? So, and this is kind of an interesting, when you talk about overcapacity, part of my discussion, when you look at supply chains, it really depends on the supply chain, but also where it is. For example, overcapacity is great if you're Australia because you're getting cheap automotive cars out of China, right? The Japanese don't like it because they're losing market share, as an example.

29:26And so where does it actually work out? One of the interesting things about overcapacity is it's not just overcapacity again in the final product is the entire supply chain. So this is one of the things that's contributing to China global. In China, because of this Neijuan, this fierce internal competition, companies, a lot of them, cannot make very much money, if any. So they have to go out. So what you're seeing now as they go out, they're building supply chains. BYD is a perfect example. They're actually bringing that entire ecosystem with them. So while it may be overcapacity inside China, the benefits to other parts of the ecosystem outside of China is now you get access to cheaper technology and products overall that you can build locally.

30:02I have so many questions. I have to focus. But okay, net net, would you say that the crackdown on Chinese technology has accelerated China's technological development or hindered it? I'd say it's definitely accelerated it because again, referring to those five parts of the supply chain ecosystem earlier, it essentially focused everything in the entire country and all the companies into this, we have to figure out how to make this work, right? Because now it's an existential threat to our businesses. The one thing I've learned since I've been in China as a kid, never focus the Chinese on a problem because they will attack and kill that problem.

30:37And with that, you also see the expenditure of massive amounts of resources. And it is very intensive. It is sometimes wasteful. But the end result is pretty clear. You have world-class companies and technology. Speaking of resources, so one thing I remember from my time in Hong Kong was the Chinese government cracked down on education companies and what they termed wasteful capital. And they basically came out and said they wanted to encourage more money to go into high-tech businesses. Is that still happening? And then also, do you see money, government money, maybe lending standards being eased up for other industries?

31:16Basically, is China using financing to encourage other types of industries to be able to expand, go abroad, things like that? So they're not necessarily using financing like, hey, here's an import-export bank for you, such as the US, for example, with Boeing. What they are doing, though, is particularly with different incentives, think AI, for example, they are providing the entire ecosystem, different levels of support. Maybe that support is some finance. Maybe the support is a guarantee of we'll buy X amount of your product over X number of years. Maybe it's, we're going to work with universities to tweak and change our educational programs so we can actually train the new engineers in terms of a more effective way to go into business.

31:58That's where we see the changes. 10 years ago, it would be more financial stimulus, financial incentives going out and tax incentives and so on going into the system. But now we're seeing these tweaks and changes because they understand that money isn't everything. You also have to build out all these other components to actually move forward in an industry.

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34:08Coach also tapped into the cultural zeitgeist as young consumers look for brands with some customization. TikTok influencers are often seen carrying Coach purses dripping with charms shaped like cherries, pears, and pretzels. That's the Bloomberg Business Week Minute brought to you by Amazon Business, your partner for smart business buying. Running a business? It's a lot, right? Orders to place, expenses to track, procurements to manage. It feels like there are never enough hours in the day. We could all use more time. That's where Amazon Business comes in. They offer smart buying solutions to help you make the most of yours, like Spend Visibility, a cloud-based system to track your buying pattern so you can optimize your savings, and Bulk Buying, so you can continue to save costs on select products with quantity discounts.

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35:35Kind of feels like ancient history. Have you tried Kimi yet? No. Have you heard of this one? There's some company called Moonshot, and they have a new model called Kimi. And some people are saying it's better than Deep Seek. I'm not sure. Have you tried it? Yeah. You know, it seemed fine. It seemed very good. You know, they all kind of look the same, but how does the AI race look? We know how it looks from the perspective of your deep seek moments, et cetera. What does the AI race look like in China? You know, it's interesting. It really depends on who you talk to, but my personal belief is that China's ahead in AI and it's not even close.

36:07Great. Yeah, when you look at the deep seek moment, it was a watershed, but there's 100 deep seek equivalents that are coming online. We've only seen 10 of them, right? I don't know what the equivalents are in the States. Sure. But when you look at, again, things like infrastructure, China has copious amounts of electricity they can build out. They're constantly building out their electricity grid. Last year in 2024, they had 380 gigawatts built out. The US only had 60, maybe 80. I don't remember off the top of my head. But essentially, that gives them a huge runway to build out all of these AI, all of these data centers, the talent.

36:40I was at the semiconductor show in Shanghai at the end of March, and they had a booth there, SemiU. And essentially, the goal of this organization is to help young graduates get into the fields of the future. Last year when I talked to them, it was very much over trying to help young graduates get internships and introductions. This year was, hey, we're going to have 100 ,000 graduates going to five key industries, AI, quantum computing, robotics, semiconductors, and batteries. Now, 100 ,000 per year, that's more than all of the Western world combined. By the end of the decade, they want to have half a million.

37:12That's more than the entire world combined. And when you actually look at how China's building out again in this AI situations. And I'll sidestep a bit when you just look at battery chemistry. China has 50 graduate programs of battery chemistry and metallurgy in it. The US doesn't really have that. We have a couple of professors. And so when you look at, again, the talent, the government support, it's not just, hey guys, we want to use AI. It's every kid in the country now from kindergarten all the way on up. I mean, even my own kids now, they are mandated starting this fall to have AI education.

37:44the entire apparatus in the whole country. And so again, when you look at these different areas, I'm like, hey, wait a minute, guys, this is not comparable. I'll give an example. I was in Southern China at a consumer goods manufacturer who I've known and I do work with. They have DeepSeek in the factory. They have five factors in China, a couple of Southeast Asia. I'm like, why do you who make consumer, why do you have DeepSeek? And he goes, oh, Cameron, we have a lot of different products and we want to figure out how to use it. We have over 100 R &D and technical guys. Business is slow because consumer goods in the trade war.

38:16I'm trying to have them figure out while we have the time, how to use it. So I go talk to the technology team. The technology team is talking to the entire supply chain how to use DeepSeek and these different programs to do more efficient business and solve problems. So he shows me his WeChat system. He's got hundreds of people in a WeChat group. They're plastic providers. They're raw material producers. the packaging guys and there's like oh yeah they'll say you know I looked at the the WeChat feed oh this didn't work try this do that I don't know what this means what are you seeing here was the entire supply chains are having this massive compounding knowledge throughout all of it from the raw material producer all the way down to the final component manufacturer the OEM then he says by the way this is now happening in Vietnam and Thailand because there it's a lot of Chinese management and now their suppliers which are Vietnamese or Thai so you're seeing this massive compound throughout all of the supply chains.

39:11And that's just one company, Joe. Is Boeing doing that? Is Dow Chemical doing that? Is BMW doing that? I would argue no. And this is why, in my mind, China is very far ahead in the AI race. People look at it as we have breakthroughs, we have this and that. And that's absolutely true. The US is 100 % ahead in that. But I call it the metaphysical versus the tangible. The US and the West is going to be great at the metaphysical discoveries and everything else. We're going to build the digital god first. That's right. The technology and the adaptation and the integration is all going to be Chinese.

39:42Joe, this is kind of depressing from a U.S. perspective. I mean, I've been depressed forever. Okay. I was born depressed. I wouldn't go that far. No, you weren't. No, I wasn't. Joe is generally a happy person, I think. You mentioned young people and the education system quite a bit here. But I imagine this is still a shift in the labor force, right? So if more factory jobs are going from China to Vietnam, that means fewer factory jobs domestically. How does all of this, the trade war, the responses from private companies in China, how does that play into domestic politics at a time when there's been a lot of anxiety within China about things like youth unemployment?

40:28It unifies it more than disunifies it because, again, it gives them a focus. We need to stand up against the attacks that we're receiving. It's actually having the opposite effect in many ways. I think the other thing is people understand that the industry of today is not going to be the industry of tomorrow. So we have to upskill. We have to train our workers. We have to automate more. If we do have a part or component that really just isn't profitable for us, we can send it to Southeast Asia, and it will be profitable. So we need to explore that. So we're seeing there are different ways that they can attack that problem.

40:57I have one more question, and I'm also worried it's going to be sort of leading to a depressing answer. But I think it was 2049 that Deng Xiaoping targeted for like, okay, by 2049, we'll have achieved a modern socialist state, maybe a modern communist state or something like that. And it seems like one way you could get there is just like have robots do everything. And I know there's a lot of investment in China in humanoid robotics, which if you could really have a robot that more or less moved like a person, pretty incredible productivity gains. There's efforts here, obviously, and Tesla's in that space.

41:34Can you talk a little bit about the state of the Chinese humanoid robotics industry, their contribution to essentially reducing the burdens of human labor, and what the sort of competitive vision for that industry is? I think the competitive vision is still being built out because, again, we don't know exactly what they can and can't do. For example, humanoid robots will be great at repetitive tasks, whether they're on an assembly line or maybe it's... I saw a video of a full-service gasoline station where the robot filled up the tank. Sure. I mean, again, those are repetitive. You can only program them for a certain number of variables.

42:12But things like, you know, when I was working in carbon fiber, we did a lot of textile production where you had to essentially thread very thin fibers into eyelet holes to feed into the machine. That will be done by humans for a very long time because it seems simple, but it's actually very complex. We have to line everything up, tie everything in accurately and so on. I think the area to look at for robotics in general is, again, do you have the supply chain ecosystem? Yeah. And China has that from all the way from the raw material processing, for example, for the magnets, all the way down into the installation.

42:43And that's why ultimately, again, And given where we are currently, China will continue to grow ahead. It's great that Tesla does it. They absolutely should. Competition is better for everybody. But you still get your magnets from China. Now, will that become a problem in the future? Maybe not. Maybe it will. I think that's to be debated. Ultimately, when you look at how it will affect society, we just don't know. I think the one thing to look at, though, is as they continue to grow the supply chain ecosystems in these areas, regardless of industry, whether it's robotics, it's semiconductors, It's making paper.

43:13The reality is, is because you have all of that in your country, you can tinker with it a lot better than other places in the world. So when you actually talk about the innovation advancements and the ability to tinker on the fly, which China is world class at, it's often because they have all the different pieces and component parts you talked about the Christmas city earlier. And that's because you can get everything for Christmas in that city. You can get the screws, you can get the tinsel, you can get a color red, you can get a pink, whatever it may be. And all of that, because that ecosystem exists there, it gives you far more flexibility in the future to build something out.

43:47Joe, how do you think New Jersey would respond to gas pumping robots? Oh, yeah. It could go either way. It could go either way. Like, is required full service gas a benefit for the workers or is it just a guaranteed benefit for the drivers? Can I say my guilty thought? Oh, okay. I like getting gasoline in New Jersey. Sure. You know, like, yeah, I like being lazy and I like having to because if I'm not like in New Jersey, I'll pump up myself to save the money. But I like having an excuse like, oh, you know, I had to do it. And then I just get to sit in my car. I don't complain. That's not that bad joke.

44:21Not that guilty. I have just one more question. And it's a really basic one. But maybe you could walk us through or at least give us some color on how the actual paperwork works for these tariffs. Like the hoops that companies are having to jump through in order to get goods to the U.S., given that the tariff rate seems to change day by day. I would refer them to my best customs broker because I don't deal with that. Because particularly to your point, because it's constantly changing and evolving. The rules are changing. One day you can't move H20 chips and the next day you can. One day you don't have any reverse, the next day you can.

45:01But they're still tariffed and taxed. But at what rate are they tariffed and taxed? Because if you get it out of Southeast Asia, it's now a different tariff rate than China, but they both come from China. How does that actually work? The reality is it's so complex now that hire a professional because that's what I do. Well, I guess I'll ask you one more question then. And it relates to the very beginning of the conversation about Chinese manufacturers building out more of their supply chain in Vietnam and other Asian countries. And one of the things you hear about is we have to guard against so-called transshipment, which I just take to mean there's something that's made in China and then it stops for a cup of coffee in Vietnam and then puts on another boat and suddenly, you know, it's a disguised importance made to look like Vietnam.

45:39It sounds like, though, the vision is that that just becomes irrelevant or that that's an unnecessary thing, that actually it is a Chinese company, but it's actually made in Vietnam. And that ultimately the idea of like transshipment, the idea of just like something passing through Vietnam is like a temporary thing. But in the end, it will just be made in Vietnam and that the companies and that the vision is not to use Vietnam as a pass-through, the vision is to use Vietnam as the source. No, you're correct. I think the issue with transshipment is the definition that is used now is very 2018. It's not really what's happening.

46:12Of course, it still happens on occasion. I'm not denying that. But when you actually look at what's happening, it's the raw materials and semi-processed intermediate goods that are coming into Vietnam and then being processed and moved on. Now, at what point is that Vietnamese versus Chinese? That actually is the debate that nobody knows the answer to. And we haven't received guidance on from the government about what that actually is. Is it X amount of content like it has with the MSCA or is it something else we don't know? You know, one of the things you hear, and we've talked about this on the podcast, is that anyone who's been in China for 10, 20, 30 years has seen extraordinary advances in standard of living over this period of time.

46:48I've never been to Vietnam. Given all this investment, Would someone who's 40 years old in Vietnam today or younger, like in the last 10 years, would you say the quality of life and the quality of infrastructure has massively changed in some of these other countries? Yeah, I would say that. It's also that the standard of living, the job opportunities, right, are the government's going to have more money in their coffers for social services because they have better taxation, because there is more money coming in. All of that is improved across the board in the region. Absolutely. I actually have one last question, which is this isn't the first time that we've seen the U.S.

47:24impose tariffs on China. Obviously, in the first Trump administration, we had restrictions, although clearly not as stringent as they are now. I kind of think of them as like maybe practice tariffs for China. So I'm curious, what was the most surprising thing that you learned or witnessed or saw from the first round of tariffs? From the original trade war tariffs? Yeah. I think the thing that I was most surprised at is that the U.S. didn't understand that it's basically squeezing a balloon. If you squeeze them out of China, they'll go somewhere else, but particularly to Southeast Asia. And that by doing that, the calculus of ABC anywhere but China has now actually cemented Chinese influence in Southeast Asia.

48:09And it will never go back to the opposite, particularly with what we're currently doing. And so the surprising things are more for me is on the US side of strategically, how do we think about these things and how do we forecast out 5, 10, 15, 20 years is that even if that was a consideration, it really wasn't given much credence. Those are the things that surprised me more. Of course, a company, if they're tariffed, is going to go outside and build somewhere else. Of course, companies that have internal intensive competition are going to want to go to new markets where they can make more profits.

48:40That's going to happen. That's business. But when you actually look at geopolitics and the evolution of geopolitics, particularly in regards to China, if you again, if you try to force China into a situation, you're not going to expect the outcome. And the outcome in this particular case of Trade War 1.0 is it cemented Chinese influence in Southeast Asia. The outcome of Trade War 2.0, although we don't know it, it's essentially now cementing China's lead in supply chains in Asia, Africa and Europe. We're going to get really freaked out in this country when it's LATAM, when it's like in our hemisphere.

49:13They're already being freaked out. And I mean, the reality is that when you talk to Chinese businesses, particularly private businesses outside of China, they know that they have to abide by local rules. And so one of the things that has been most surprising to me is that the U.S. doesn't encourage more Chinese firms, particularly in industries where we have to have the technology, battery and so on. Come here. Not just come here, but you do it our way, right? 51 % JV versus 49 % an American has to be in charge, all data silo. There are certain things you can do that are low-hanging fruit. And one of the arguments that I use often is, for example, with these advanced supply chains.

49:48For example, with EVs, Chinese firms, China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the last 20 years developing this out. Why does the US or Europe want to spend the same? It's stupid. it. If you want to build it out, invite them to do it, pay them the royalty fee, whatever it comes out to, take the technology and then fork it and make it indigenous. So instead of 20, 10 years, 20 years behind, now you're two. That's a much different conversation. And these are things, to your point, Tracy, that we just don't see or that we're not taking advantage. Cameron Johnson, thank you so much for coming on.

50:23That was a fascinating conversation. Thanks for having me, guys. Fascinating and depressing.

50:40Well, that was certainly a very fascinating conversation. I mean, there's a lot to pick up from this idea that China is ahead in AI and that it's not particularly close is like a really interesting contention. Yes, it's an interesting contention because I think here in the U.S., the way people talk about AI is that this is still an area where we maintain some semblance of a quote, lead, unquote. Yeah. I also thought, well, I guess the emphasis on the sort of like iterative process of Chinese companies was important because China does have this like background of taking a particular piece of technology or a way of doing things and then improving on it.

51:20So it seems like maybe AI just kind of speeds that up or maybe AI itself is a place where it can kind of deploy that strategy. The other thing I was thinking about is just the importance of the supply network that Cameron was emphasizing and how difficult it is to replicate that. Like, could you imagine a Christmas village in the U.S.? No. Or in Shoe Town and Sock Town and all of these things. No, it's almost impossible to imagine. You know, I think this is something we've talked about, Sam D 'Amico of Impulse Labs, you know, the idea that the supply chain is the product. Right. And I think hearing him talk about overcapacity as in it's not about the overcapacity of end products per se.

52:05It's about that overcapacity to the extent that that is a meaningful lens of the entire chain, right? And all the different suppliers. I thought that was like a really interesting idea. You know, another thing that I think is important and it sounds trivial, but setting aside the cost of labor, until we have perfect humanoid robotics, there is no substitute for population, right? And so just the fact that the sheer number of workers, whether we're talking potentially factory workers or the sheer number of STEM graduates, which to some extent might be about educational priorities, but to another extent is also just going to be about the sheer number of people in the world.

52:44It ends up being a meaningful qualitative difference. What was the stat that Cameron threw out? 100 ,000 STEM graduates or something per year? Yeah, like more than all the Western countries combined. That's stunning. Multiple battery majors and the U.S. doesn't have any. Just anyway, I don't know. We got to go to Shoe City. We got to go to Shoe City. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest Cameron Johnson.

53:17He's at Cam R. Johnson. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Armand. Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more OddLots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots, where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you want us to go to China to visit Shu City, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free.

53:50All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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