Tractor Supply's CEO on How It Escaped the Post-Pandemic Curse

28:04Yeah, so another decision that we've made is how we execute online. 75, 80 % of our online business is picked up in store or fulfilled from a store, delivered from a store. Or, you know, by comparison, most would be in the 40 or 50 percent range in retail or even less. We've been very purposeful in choosing not to compete in that kind of long tail assortment or to have a marketplace on our website because we just don't think that we're competitively advantaged in that area and that, you know, we can build a robust, sustainable business in that area. We know what we do best, which is serve rural America, serve life out here through an 18 ,000 square foot store base with the best customer service in the industry from retail and doing that with the technology that is best needed by our customers.

28:54And to your point, it's been very purposeful over decades and decades in terms of really defining who we are and building a real competitive advantage around that. So one thing I was wondering, and you mentioned the online business there and the idea of click and collect, which I believe has been a source of growth for a lot of brick and mortar companies at this point. But you came from Macy's and I think Home Depot before you joined Tractor Supply. And I think at Macy's you were actually heading up their online business. Can you talk a little bit more about how that experience may have informed Tractor Supply's online strategy?

29:34I'd say one of the areas that I'm personally very passionate about is the intersection of retail and technology and how that allows you to better serve your customer, but also how that allows your team members, your employees to better serve your customers as well. like you're strengthening their ability to do so. And to your point, I spent 10 years at Home Depot, four of which of that 10 years I was running the online business there, 2009 to 2013, which was a pretty big time period for digital transformation in retail, coming on the heels of Amazon and really coming on the forefront. And then obviously the iPhone launching.

30:15And then I spent three years at eBay running their North America business, you know,$30 billion plus marketplace just in the United States and obviously global in nature. And during my three years there, that was, you know, big data, cloud computing, kind of the mid 2015, 14, 16, 17 timeframe. And then in 17 to 2019, that three-year period, I worked at Macy's where I was the president of the business and did have responsibility for technology and online in that role. And, you know, those experiences have had substantial impact on, you know, my perspectives of how technology can drive the business better, serve customers, better enabled team members, and try to bring some of that in concert with the large team that we have that thinks about these things every day.

31:00And I think we've done an excellent job in the last handful of years, you know, from a technology perspective and, you know, ways it's influenced us, as I mentioned earlier, the way we've executed our consumer mobile app strategy, the way we've executed our buy-in-line pickup and store strategy, but also the way we've set up our team members to be successful. All of our team members wear headsets that allow for a variety of point-to-point communications, tasking, knowledge tools, AI knowledge tools. All of our team members have a handheld device that they use for executing in the stores, but that's complemented by a bring-your-own-device where we have our own app just for our team members.

31:38And all three of those work seamlessly from a credentials and authentication perspective. Then we're also rolling out now kind of computer vision, leveraging all of our cameras in our stores and taking them from being kind of dumb cameras to smart cameras and allowing us to create use cases to drive improved customer service in our stores. So, you know, all these things that, you know, I've had a chance to participate in over the last 15, 20 years in terms of just, you know, technology trends. I think we're, you know, trying to just leverage all of our learnings across those to create the best business we can.

32:09And of course, we have a great team who does a lot of this work as well and have had, you know, their similar set of experiences over the last couple of decades. So obviously we're really interested in supply chains and things like that here on Odd Lots. So one of the questions or one of the things I think you said you have nine distribution centers around the country, and I think you're adding a 10th. I think if I - Yeah, that's correct. Can you talk about the decision making that goes into the upfront cost of a new distribution center and what that unlocks in terms of possibilities at the end retail location when you build one out.

32:47How do you think about when it makes sense to spend the money to build a new distribution center? In less than a month's time, our grand opening for our 10th distribution center will take place, and that's in Maumelle, Arkansas. We just opened our ninth distribution center a year ago, little over a year ago, in Navarro, Ohio. In addition to those and those 10 distribution centers of which each are about a million square feet. We also have three import distribution centers that kind of deconsolidate product after it comes in on containers. And then we have 16 mixing centers, which are cross dock facilities that are labeled for faster replenishment on full pallet goods, which is from us, for the most part, are high velocity items that are big bagged items like food and feed, wood pellets, fertilizer, et cetera.

33:36So we have a very robust, you know, kind of multi-building type strategy in our supply chain. As we build, to get back to your question on the 10th distribution center, just kind of how do we think about that? There's really two facets to the build out of one. One is just, you kind of got to have it from a capacity perspective. And about every 250 stores, we have to build another distribution center to just be able to, you know, kind of keep them in stock and have the capacity. All of our DCs run 24 hours a day, seven days a week. We're maniacal on trying to make sure we get as much throughput through them as possible, obviously, with team members in mind as we think about that.

34:14Part of it is you just kind of have to. But each of our DCs, in addition to that, does provide a substantial financial benefit. As we roll out of DC, it takes, call it up between$100 and$150 million of capital to build one and call it$30 to$40 million a year in annual operating expense from a labor perspective, et cetera. But it allows us to significantly reduce our mileage on the truck perspective. So we can reduce the inbound miles from our vendors to the DC because we've got more DCs across the country. And so you're reducing mileage there. But then secondly, we're able to build the distribution center so that, you know, the stores in which they serve are closer and we can reduce that distance as well.

35:03In fact, over the last six years, we've reduced our average truck distance by 120 miles, which has generated substantial freight savings for us. And so, you know, our DCs, as we think about them, there's kind of two main drivers for it. One, we just got to have it. But two, it does provide a substantial financial benefit for the business as well. And then what I would say is they also create a unique position for us in the marketplace where all of our core farm and ranch competitors, for the most part, with exception of one or two, buy through distribution. And so that's going to slow their ability to replenish down and create a higher cost for that.

35:41And then those retailers that we compete with that are more national retailers that we compete with kind of category by category, say a home improvement retailer or pet retailer. Last year, we processed over 8 billion pounds of food and feed through our supply chain. And so, you know, we're just experts at moving 50 pound bags of animal feed, food, fertilizer, wood pellets, those sorts of things, and have far away the lowest cost to serve on those. So it gets us scale on a cost to serve, it gets us speed of replenishment, it reduces our transportation costs, but also just gives us that capacity to fuel our growth.

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38:24Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. With over$2 ,500 in annual value, it's the car that gives back all you put in. Learn more at Chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC. There was a line in one of your most recent earnings calls that sort of caught my eye, and you were talking about how you had reduced the attrition rate in your supply chain team by implementing a new progressive wage scale. Is that corporate speak for, you know, you gave everyone raises and they worked harder?

39:09Yes and no. So I'll start by saying one of the things that we've invested in over the last five years substantially is in wages. Earlier, when I was mentioning the investments that we've made in the business, specifically referenced capital expenditures, there's obviously other line items that would be reflective of our investments. And one of those has been in wages. And our average hourly wage rate is nearly$16 now. That's inclusive of our 45 ,000 team members, store team members, and nearly 5 ,000 distribution center team members. It can go back and point at numerous times over the last five years, we've made incremental wage adjustments for our team members.

39:51So in June of 2020, well before others were doing so, we provided a dollar per hour wage increase for every team member, hourly team member of the company. At that same time, we also started providing benefits to all part-time team members. Up until then, you had to be full-time to have access to benefits. Now, if you work 15 hours or more a week at Tractor Supply, you have access to benefits, the same benefits I do. It's one benefit set system for everyone. And that 15-hour threshold is very low compared to other retailers. If you were to go benchmark, most would be at least 20. Most are 25 and upwards of 30.

40:30And we also started in June of 2020 providing restricted stock grants to our store managers so that they felt that empowerment, that ownership in their role. Specific to our distribution centers, two things we've done recently there. One is all of our supervisors and managers in the DCs now receive restricted stock, which wasn't the case prior. So again, building ownership inside that distribution center of our management team in there. And then secondly, as far as our hourly team members, we shifted to what as you called it, a progressive wage scale. Historically, our distribution centers would have gotten their raises once a year in an annual merit cycle.

41:13And what we found through that was, in particular of the last two or three years, as you had a real crunch around available labor, was that people wanted merit increases faster, more consistently. And so we went to one where At 90 days, you get a raise. At 180 days, you get a raise. At 360 days, you get a raise. And then it's progressive from there. And so when you join, you know what you start at, and you know exactly what your rage rates are going to be as you look out. It's very calendarized for you. And so that gave people certainty. It gave people clarity. It gave them a little bit of a reward along the way.

41:50Plus, their managers now have stock incentive, and they're kind of treating it a bit more like, you know, an ownership mentality. And it's been very successful for us. And we had a 50 point reduction in our supply chain attrition last year. And we're continuing to see attrition rates below down this year, kind of three months in. So on your website, it says currently, I'm looking at your history page, it says there are 2200 stores in the 49 states. And I think your goal per the last conference call is to get up to 3000 stores. So I have like, I guess it's a two-part question is, what is the main constraint to adding stores?

42:26Is it available land? Is it just the capacity to plan them out? Like, where is the heart? Is it materials and labor to build them? Like, what is that constraint? And then when you talk about new store productivity, and I think as you've been saying that stores lately have been getting up to full productivity faster than they have in the past, what is the dial that you can turn to get a brand new store up and running so that it's sort of on par with the legacy stores? Well, summarize, Joe, on kind of our store goal and the number of stores we open annually. So we have a 3 ,000 store goal in the United States.

43:03We have a little over 2 ,200 stores now. We build annually around 80 stores. So we've got, you know, basically a decade left of new store growth. We do have a history of increasing that as, but, But we feel very good about the 3 ,000-store goal, and perhaps there's some more upside beyond that. There's a variety of factors that limit the number of stores we build a year. As I mentioned, we're currently this year planning to build 80 tractor supply stores and I should mention 10 to 20 PetSense stores. I would say the main limiting factor is our culture. And I think the thing that keeps me up the most at night is not allowing our growth to exceed the pace of our culture.

43:50And we cannot be one of those companies that wakes up five years and not go, God, we just had incredible growth, but we're just not the same company that we were five years ago from a culture and customer service perspective. Obviously, in addition to that limiting factor, there's a variety of other things, right? There's access to all the construction materials you need. There's access to local permitting resources. There's access to construction labor. All those things that we've had over the last two or three years, nuances there that have impacted our ability to move faster on store rollouts, just with the supply chain directions that occurred with COVID and such, and the availability for people to get out and approve permits and those sorts of things.

44:31But that's all reasonably settled now. And I'd say it's mostly just back to normal with the exception of the higher interest rates on building stores. But the main bottleneck on an annual basis is just making sure that we don't outgrow our culture. And we bring every new store manager. So we have 12 % store manager attrition, one of the lowest, perhaps the lowest in retail in terms of attrition. But at 2 ,200 stores, that's a couple hundred 50 new store managers a year. Plus, we have 80 new stores. So you're talking 30, 350 new store managers a year. We bring every one of those store managers to our store support center here in Brentwood, Tennessee, right outside of Nashville.

45:11They spend an entire week going through training. They also spend 90 days prior to starting at their store training at another store. And so we invest a lot of resource to make sure the store managers are up and running and that you can't tell a difference when you walk, when you go into one store versus another. And we're just so passionate about that. And I think that is the primary limiting factor for our new stores in terms of number a year. And then trying to get our stores up to volume as fast as possible is kind of every retailer's goal and focus. And typically, they started about 70 % of our estimated sales in the first year.

45:49And over a three - or four-year time period, we'll ramp up to that 100 % of what we expect out of that store. And they are opening up at higher volumes than they did pre-COVID, and they are ramping faster. And I think there's a number of reasons for that. But I think the biggest is the improvement that we've made in our brand awareness. And pre-COVID, our unaided brand awareness was down in the 30s. And now post-COVID, our unaided brand awareness has nearly doubled. And just so as we move into markets, more people are aware of us. They are more apt to consider shopping us. And, you know, that just allows us to ramp up quicker.

46:24How important are partnerships to business growth now? Because famously, you have a partnership with Carhartt. So if you walk into a tractor supply store, you'll see lots of Carhartt hats and clothing of all sorts. But I think you also have some sort of deal with Yellowstone. And in the course of researching for this interview, I saw you have a line of garden clothes with Martha Stewart now. So that seems to be an area of interest for you. How do you identify these potential partnerships? And then how important is that for the overall business mix nowadays? Tractor Supply would not be the same company, absent the many fantastic partners that we have.

47:07And that's really across all different facets of the business. Certainly on the product side, we have some great partners that work very closely with this, help us create unique product experiences for our customers that can only be found at Tractor Supply. To your point, whether that's in apparel Carhartt, who were, you know, one of the largest seller of Carhartts in the country, and we have, you know, nearly 100 store within a store Carhartt across our store base. But even partners like Purina on the feed side, and, you know, we have two private brands in feed, Do More and Producers Pride. And we work very closely with Purina on the production of those.

47:51And in fact, our Do More brand is the only private brand product in the United States that carries the Purina checkerboard. And you can go across our business and we've got these just really fantastic, strong partner relationships on the product side, but also on the marketing side, your point. So we've got great relationships with Yellowstone and Taylor Sheridan and that team. And we were, you know, one of the very first partners that they had and have always built custom commercials for that. And, you know, Laney Wilson, we have a strong multi-year relationship with, or professional bull riding.

48:25And we're one of the first inaugural sponsors with them as that has really grown as a sport and an enterprise. But then also, if you look on the tech side, we have an incredibly strong partnership with Microsoft and Microsoft Azure in particular in their cloud platform and their AI capabilities. And I'd say we're very much on the forefront of partnering with them and experimenting and developing scaled solutions. And then even if you look at like on the community side, we're far and away the largest contributor and have been for 30 plus years with FFA, the Future Farmers of America. And we're in our second year of the largest rural agriculture scholarship program in the country.

49:04It's a million dollars a year,$105 ,000 scholarships and$50 ,000,$10 ,000 scholarships. And so, you know, whether it's on the community side, whether it's on the tech side, whether it's on the merchandising side or on the marketing side, you know, and in a variety of other stakeholders as well. We had just incredible partnerships, people that that we've been with for quite some time. And, you know, there's synergies between our businesses and their businesses. And it just really allows us to be the best company we can be. I just have one more question. But since you mentioned specifically interest rates in the context of build out, can you just give a little like more specifics about how does a high interest environment affect the math of store rollouts?

49:49And you mentioned that on your call. That came up as one of the challenges for 2023, along with weather and some other things. But talk to us a little bit about the effective elevated interest rates on expansion decisions and how it changes how various investments pencil out. Yeah, absolutely. So, I mean, interest rates are significant in any sort of real estate project, right? And historically, we have used third-party contractors to develop our locations for us under a signed contract. And our commitment as part of that signed contract is, you know, typically at a minimum 15 years or a 20-year lease within two to three options on the back end of that.

50:34So, you know, we're signing up for 15 to 30 years, say, in a location with a lease dollars per month associated with that. And as part of that part of the agreement, then a developer would go build that store for us. And that includes acquiring the land, building the store. And then once they've got us up and running, most of our landlords will then sell that property to someone who wants to own the long-term cashflow stream. So if you're a developer, you are typically funding the acquisition of that land and the build out of that store through some sort of financing. And then you're selling the property to someone who's counting on those cash flows.

51:17And so both the financing and the selling to someone who's counting on those cash flows are significantly impacted by interest rates. What's the interest rate you're going to pay on six to seven million dollars of capital for a year to 15 months while you're building that store? And then when you sell that tractor supply to someone and it's got a$300 ,000 year annual revenue stream associated with it right from the lease, what interest rate are they going to use to discount that cash flow back at? And so it has substantial implications on our real estate developers. And with the movement up in interest rates, obviously it makes it more expensive to build.

51:53And then you obviously are monetizing those future cash flows at less, right, because of higher interest rates. And so they've got more risk and they've got a bunch of movement. And so it has significant implications. And so one of the things we've done over the last 12 months is start to actually finance the build out ourselves. So we have gone probably about half of our stores this year. We will work with the developer still. We'll say, look, you just build the store for us, work with the contractors on the property, you know, work with the local municipalities around zoning and permitting and all those sorts of things.

52:27but don't worry about buying the fixtures, buying the HVAC, buying the concrete block, all those things. We're going to do all that. We will pay for it all. We're just going to give you a$400 ,000 or$500 ,000 fixed fee to build that for us. But the idea that you need to finance it on the front end or worry about the sale on the back end, don't worry about that anymore. We will take that on. And what we found is that it frees up a lot of value because they were putting a lot of risk in the model, particularly with the variability in interest rates and how things are moving around. And so it's had significant impacts.

53:01We're fortunate to be investment grade in terms of debt rating, to be billion dollars plus cash flow positive every year. So we've got a lot of levers that we can put in place to just kind of address that situation. But it's certainly been a big topic, I think, for everyone in real estate over the last 18 months. Since you guys are experts in moving big bags of stuff, can you just start buying and then also delivering materials for new stores to yourself? Right. And that's exactly part of the benefit that we've captured by bringing kind of self-development in the house is that we can go negotiate now for 80 HVAC systems at one time.

53:40We can go negotiate for all the fixtures at one time, all the bailers that we have in the back of our store, all those sorts of things that in the past the contractor would have singularly sourced just for that store. We can now do it in large batches, 50, 100 at a time, and get a nice reduction in price by leveraging our volume. Last quick question for me. I know you're writing these big secular trends, but things like inflation, etc., labor market, how do things look right now? We're recording this April 9th, 2024. Does it feel like we're something like a normal environment? I don't know if you're a retailer that feels perfectly normal right now.

54:24And I'll get into that in just a second. But what I would say at the highest level, our economy is strong right now. I mean, we're running, you know, as a country, two, three, 4 % GDP, right? Kind of pick your quarter and month. GDP is solid right now. You've got consumer spending really leading the way on that. You know, the PCE, personal consumption expenditures, you know, for the month of January and February are very solid in that, you know, two and a half to three and a half percent range. Very solid growth there. You know, the only thing I think from a retailer perspective, why it doesn't feel normal right now is consumers are still shifting their spend from goods to services.

55:03And, you know, pre-COVID services, so things like, you know, hotels, restaurants, entertainment, cruises, those sort of, you know, airline tickets, those sorts of things, they were about 69 % of a consumer's spend, with goods being the other 31%. 1%. During COVID, when people had less travel that they could go do, you had these stimulus checks coming through and people were feeling the need to spend those. Goods as a percent of consumer expenditures got nearly as high as 37 % with services, by comparison, dropping down to 63%. Over the last 18 months, as our economy's opened back up and people have gotten back to more normal spending, perhaps some pent up desire to travel, you've seen that services spend start to creep back towards 69%.

55:55I think at the end of February, it was in the high 67s, maybe right at 68%. So and if you look at the February spend, services were up 6%, whereas goods were only up 1 % on spend. So there's a big swing happening right now between goods and services. But other than that, Our economy seems to be very healthy right now. The consumer continues to spend. Inflation's moderating. I think people have started, you see that lesser as an issue when you do consumer surveys. And I think our economy is very much stabilizing. Hats off to the Fed for everything they've done. Hal Lawton, CEO of Tractor Supply, thank you so much for coming on All Thoughts and And explaining exactly how you were capturing so much of my income.

56:44It was great.

56:55All right, Joe. Well, I thought that was fascinating. And I can see why I am, in fact, spending quite a decent amount of money at Tractor Supply in recent years. There is so much to pick out of that conversation. I mean, I thought the point about distribution was pretty interesting, this idea that you can build up an expertise in moving a particular type of thing. So in this case, I guess big bags of animal feed and stuff like that. And so you can start to get efficiencies out of that and also maybe at some point start to negotiate supply for building your own stores and bulk purchase as well.

57:30No, I thought that was really fascinating as well, because you can imagine, right? And it's not you don't have to imagine that like, OK, and something like Pet Food or something like that or Feed, they're competing with a lot of other companies. But if feed is such a dominant share of their own supply chain, then they can become the most efficient or theoretically the most efficient distributor of 50 pound bags in a way that you might not expect companies that specialize in so many other things to build that expertise. And so like a way of gaining scale and price competitiveness, even from smaller size.

58:07Yeah. And the other thing I was thinking, and this came up in the episode we did before on the Harvard business case study, but this idea of the choice of location for opening stores and not automatically migrating or being attracted to urban centers. Because I think for, you know, a large proportion of retail, the thinking is always you want to be where the people are. So even in the middle of New York, you will have, in fact, I think we have a Home Depot right below the Bloomberg offices in midtown Manhattan. You will have those kind of big box stores, you know, a Target or a Home Depot or whatever.

58:43But it seems like in the case of Tractor Supply, they're sort of going where the animals are, not necessarily where the people are. No, totally. And then I love like also, you know, in terms of the strategic location, hearing him walk through the math of the effective interest rates on store development. And I always joke, you know, it's like every company is a bank. But that is basically like what he described, which is like why when tractor supply has like a great credit rating is really big, it's, you know, it's not going to go away. Why not bring that sort of borrowing and lending capacity onto the tractor supply balance sheet and then free up the developer who then can focus on the one thing that they're really good at, which is constructing a building rather than having the developer also take that financial risk and presumably pay a higher spread for their borrowing than tractor would.

59:36You know, the other thing I was thinking, this might be kind of weird, but, you know, tractor supply is sort of keying off this big demographic trend, which we discussed, aging millennials and the fact that millennials want more space and they're moving out of cities and they want pets and things like that. I sometimes wonder if, like, tractor supply is going to be the Harley Davidson of millennials. Like everyone had pets when they were a certain age, just like all the baby boomers had a motorcycle when they were a certain age. And then it kind of ages out. I like that analogy. I'm done with that analogy.

1:00:11Oh, you know what, Tracy, one other thing that we have to do more episodes on is like, I guess I would say like the pointsification or reward program. And I just feel like, you know, I'm starting to think that, you know people like post about prices for anything like inflation is out of control and then another person posts like here's a screenshot from walmart.com and these prices are nowhere near what you say and stuff like that yeah and i feel like there is this divide between the people who are like have the time and capacity to be part of rewards programs i've said this so many times it's the price pack architecture is becoming more sophisticated and mcdonald's is my sort of ultimate example of this, which is if you download the app and if you take the time to order before you actually rock up to the little takeout window, you can get decent deals.

1:01:02And they are like a significant percentage less than what you would get from just ordering spontaneously. And it is kind of, it's weird and it adds another layer of complexity to inflation, I think. It also brings up questions about privacy and fairness and things like that. It's interesting to hear him talk about like how much he credits like that to like, you know, getting that consumer app. I think he said it was in summer 2021. And like the sort of taking it from a very rudimentary rewards program to more advanced one. Super interesting stuff. Absolutely. And we really should do that episode.

1:01:39Yeah. OK, well, in the meantime, shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest, Tractor Supply CEO Hal Lawton. He's at Hal Lawton. Follow our producers, Kerman Rodriguez at Kermanerman, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. Thank you to our producer, Moses Andam. For more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com slash oddlots. We have transcripts, blog, and a newsletter. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in the Discord with fellow listeners, discord.gg slash oddlots.

1:02:18And if you enjoy Oddlots, if you like it when we do deep dives into the business model of companies like Tractor Supply, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you're a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is connect your Bloomberg account with Apple Podcasts. Thanks for listening. Thank you.

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