Travis Kavulla Explains Why Electric Bills Shot Up

27:48And that's kind of a missing link right now in this policy landscape. Other than sheer volume of power needs, I guess sheer megawatts, do data centers have specific energy needs in terms of, I don't know, the type of electricity? I would assume a megawatt is a megawatt, but what do I know? But maybe in terms of timing and things like that, are there sort of operational considerations that are unique to data centers, electricity consumption versus, say, an industrial factory or us turning the lights on when we get home? Yeah. So, I mean, the first experience at any scale that anyone seemed to have with computing technologies were kind of cloud-based servers and then really on the other side, like crypto mining facilities.

28:40And both of them data centers, but the two could not be more different, right? I mean, crypto can – it becomes uneconomic at a certain strike price for cryptocurrency to continue mining. And so it's a highly flexible load that drops off the system when conditions become tight in an electricity market. And we see that all the time in Texas. On the other hand, for cloud services that are providing kind of real-time instantaneous hosting capabilities, they have a very high what's called load factor of their power consumption. They're drawing from the system on a relatively consistent basis. and of course they need to be highly reliable you know they can't really be interrupted without having cloud fair aws interruption style problems so very different and you can look back to analogs of you know other industrial customers you know aluminum smelters high load factor when they were doing the batching of smelting couldn't be interrupted paper mills maybe you could interrupt them so we the industry has some like kind of learnings from this and there have been markets designed around the flexibility of demand to try to do for the power sector what previously happened to, say, the airline sector, which used to have a very low load factor.

29:59And then after restructuring and deregulation in the 70s, suddenly everyone's airplanes ended up full, too full in some cases where people get bumped and compensated for it. So we've yet to achieve that, though, in the power sector where load factors continue to be 50, 60, 70%. So there's a lot of headroom during certain hours and very little headroom during other hours. So the primary question in terms of the network economics is, if you end up with a bunch of high load factor data center customers, the type that can't be interrupted, how do you get them online without tripping into a bunch of necessary capital investments to serve that last few percent of hours where their demand needs to be served and firm?

30:47Or can you source flexibility out of the system somewhere else, like from residential air conditioning or something like that? That's a question, again, that's very important to figure out. People have kind of issues spotted it, but we've really yet to solve in any meaningful way. The markets like Texas are kind of geared towards solving it in more of a free enterprise premise. Other markets seem to be struggling a bit.

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33:17Unleash your superhuman potential today. Learn more at superhuman.com slash podcast. That's superhuman.com slash podcast. It's funny to think about getting an alert on your phone. It's like GPT-6 is completing its training runs. Sorry, no. We would like you to turn down your air conditioning right now. No, I don't know if that would happen. But part of the reason everyone's interested in data centers, period, well, there's a lot of reasons. But people are worried when they hear these numbers, they're like, oh, am I as the consumer, let's say I lived in Texas, which I sometimes have, am I as the consumer going to, in some way or another, be paying the price for this massive expansion of demand thanks to data centers.

33:59Intuitively, it seems like, well, it shouldn't be. They can pay for their own electricity. They can pay for their own upgrades. But how does this massive increase in demand play out from the sort of the ratepayer perspective? Yeah. So we go back to the kind of segmentation between the regulated grid costs and the commodity costs in answer to that question. On the commodity side, this tends to be a marginal cost pricing environment where if you have demand growth outstripping supply additions, the system becomes tighter. The supply curve moves up for the kind of last unit that's necessary to serve demand, and its marginal costs in a very real way establish the clearing price that all demand has to pay unless, and to the extent to, they are bilaterally contracted with some kind of hedging instruments, which everyone should be.

34:59No one should be in an ideal market exposed to that spot price, but we find that many people are for a variety of reasons. So some policy interventions that people have contemplated is usually we would let these markets equilibrate on their own. We would expect sort of organic growth to be met with organic supply additions. Here, people have observed like, wow, this demand growth seems really out of scale with what the markets have organically been able to achieve. Maybe we should have a requirement to just bring your own generation. We're not going to let the power markets on a forward traded basis send the right signal and hope that enough generation shows up to serve this demand as sort of part of the social license or even a formalized regulatory requirement for them to get online.

35:49You got to show us the megawatts that you're bringing on the system. So that's one of the debates. On the other side of the ledger, the regulated costs, that too can be a problem. Usually, and again, this division problem of network economics for the regulated costs, If you're adding to that denominator of throughput at a rate that is higher than you're adding to additions to the fixed costs of the system, everyone's rates go down. It produces a lower quotient, which is the price of grid-consumed electricity. The problem here is that in a kind of an inflationary environment for all the materials, the transformers, the cabling, everything that goes into the poles and wires, if you're adding demand and you're not just using headroom that already exists on the system, if you're not increasing that capacity factor on the system, if you're tripping into a lot of new capital expenditures, then even if you're adding demand that's paying regulated rates, it may not be enough to offset the total amount of expenditures.

36:48incrementally you're making on the system. So there's policy interventions there too, where you can try to directly assign the costs that are caused on the grid back to the data centers. But those are pretty nascent approaches. And some of the ones that have been tried are kind of aiming at the wrong thing. So a lot of policy work remains to be done here. And all of this is kind of a political debate where a lot of state governors, the people who are really the ones kind of in charge of, with their state utility commissions, setting these policies. They simultaneously want the economic development of data centers, but they don't want any negative externalities around reliability, affordability, clean energy.

37:28And all those things trade off against one another, but political actors will want to maximize all of those variables, which is not possible in the current environment. Can I ask a very basic question? And I'm struggling to think of a way to frame it that doesn't sound like I've just taken an elderly family member to a medical office or something. But what is a node? A node usually would be a place like a substation. It is the place on the physical grid at which electricity is bought and sold. It's a physical destination on the grid. When we say nodal markets, which is a way to describe electricity markets, we're referring to markets where electricity is priced on a so-called locational marginal price basis.

38:17And the LMPs, as they're called, are based on physical destinations on the grid called nodes. I'm just, you know, estimated guess here, but a market like Texas will have a few thousand nodes at which electricity is traded on an individuated price basis. That seems like such a weird way of doing it to me, and I'm sure there are very valid reasons for doing it in this way. But like nowadays, given all the data at our disposal, given the rise of AI, can't we work out some sort of average cost across the system? It seems really weird that we're taking it at physical points. Although I guess there are plenty of commodities that do trade based on particular locations, but it just seems strange to me.

38:58Well, it is important that you have nodal pricing in the system only because it sends a powerful price signal for the accurate location of necessary power generation. There are certain markets, I'm thinking of Alberta, some of the European markets that actually do establish a zonal price across their entire market. But there you end up with power plant developers who develop wind in a particular area far away from demand to capture the average price. But then that energy ends up being undeliverable because there are transmission system constraints and congestion. So the nodal pricing formulation is intended to reflect a market that, unlike the stock exchange, isn't just trading bits of data to represent kind of paper securities.

39:51It, in a very real way, is meant to simulate a kind of flow of electrons on a system-constrained basis. And then it provides valuable information too, because if you continue to see locational marginal prices in one place that are very high and 20 miles away, they're very low. That's a signal to the people who plan the transmission grid that, hey, we should probably build a transmission line here because the addition of the transmission line will be the thing that flattens out that price differential and creates a market that looks more like a copper plate rather than two separate swimming pools.

40:31Interesting. Just to be clear, though, So if I wanted to be public enemy number one, could I build a gigantic data center next to a locational marginal price point node and affect the cost of electricity for a greater area? Yes, you absolutely could. And in fact, I mean, I know of at least one example, you know, North Dakota is actually a good example of this, a place that doesn't have a lot of robust transmission infrastructure, does have a lot of renewable resources that cause, and those renewables are almost kind of dumping on the market in a way that causes the energy price to go down and even negative at times in North Dakota.

41:12And, you know, some of the first data centers that we've seen in this wave of expansion chose to locate in North Dakota because they had access to wholesale prices that were low or negative. They were just following the price signal. And so there's, you know, there's certain data centers out there that are literally being paid to consume electricity because there's such an oversupply and so little transmission into the area. You know, I got to ask this question on a podcast recently, and I didn't have a good answer. So now I want to ask, so you mentioned, okay, all of these different pieces of electrical gear, they're in short supply.

41:45You might not be able to get some key equipment until 2030. Is that strain going to ease at all? Is there any additional capacity coming on the market? When I was asked this, I sort of hesitated. I was like, well, maybe they're not sure about the future, so they're reluctant to do the capital expending involved. But do you think there's any, like, is capacity growing for some of this core infrastructure as far as you can tell? My impression is yes. I mean, you've seen public announcements from the largest gas turbine manufacturer, GE Vernova, about new manufacturing base additions. You know, some of the transformer equipment as well.

42:24I think you're seeing some incremental investment in. You're certainly seeing power generators like NRG take positions in lining up their optionality to have power projects that can be deployable to either the Texas market or the mid-Atlantic market, depending on where consumer demand actually arises. So I think there is some development in that market. I will say, I think what people are waiting for, everyone looks around the supply chain and is reasonably asking, well, who's got the deep pockets here? And then everyone turns to big tech. Big tech, obviously, if they signed a power purchase agreement for 15 years or even less to take power at a certain price, some of the supply chain would fall into place pretty readily, I would say.

43:13And so people are kind of waiting, in a sense, for big tech to make those big bilateral contracting moves that would serve to propagate sort of rationality around response to the perceived demand up and down the supply chain. And I think that's kind of the leading indicator to watch for in the sector, how many of those contracts are actually being signed. Big tech is just going to do everything. They're going to build nuclear plants and they're going to build their own chips and they're going to build their own fabs and everything. It'll be this entire ecosystem that is just alphabets from down the line.

43:49I want to go back, though, to something you said, which is that part of what's tricky about the data center thing is that, OK, here's this big boom in demand. But it's not because of like general like trend economic growth. And you could be perhaps that in a year from now or six months from now or tomorrow, people say, oh, I want to slam the brakes on AI spending. And we're not getting this return fears of a bubble, you know, forth. Talk to us a little bit more how the commissions are dealing with this risk and this very binary state of planning. Yeah. So commissions at the state level have dealt with this in a very different way.

44:25Some of them have candidly and regulated utilities themselves have said, we want no part of this risk. Like we're a small mid-cap utility and someone is knocking at our door asking us to invest in power generation. That would be like a third of our total existing balance sheet that's remained stable for decades. We're just not doing it. You can get on our grid and you can pay the cost to get on our grid. But in terms of power generation, you've got to bring your own project. We're not involved in that. Other utilities that have larger balance sheets, the Southeastern utilities, are using their regulated balance sheets to build out generation and supply data center customers.

45:05Devils in the details on those heavily redacted commercial agreements that I would desperately love to see about the degree to which they protect consumers. And then, of course, the other side of the industry, the competitive industry, it's companies like mine and data centers that enter into commercial agreements for the purchase and sale of power, and neither of those parties have recourse to a captive base of customers. So they could go bust, we could go bust. It's not going to be skin off the teeth of a set of quote-unquote ratepayers. Again, on the grid costs, it's about whether or not state commissions, and in this case a federal regulator, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, are going to style take-or-pay contractual agreements to require large data centers that come onto the grid to essentially collateralize a revenue stream associated with the incremental costs of developing the grid to serve them.

46:04And so far, there seems to be relative unanimity that that is the right way to go in order to protect legacy customers. But again, the devil's in the details, and I have a problem with some of the math that's being done in those regulatory approaches. So it's not as if this problem is invisible to the people who are economically regulating this industry, but they are trying to, in a very real way, they are trying to figure it out in real time. And I'll be the first to say their solution set is far from perfect. So just on this note, it strikes me that the difficulty in the system, I mean, setting aside the patchwork of 50 different states all having their own different regulations, like the heart of the difficulty in the current system is we're trying to preserve the market signal for further investment, but also smooth out some of the volatility so that Joe and I don't have to spend an inordinate amount of time thinking about what is like the most cost effective time to blow dry our hair or do our laundry.

47:04or something like that. So we're kind of trying to have our capitalism cake and eat it too. Cake-italism. Cake-italism. That kind of works. What is your platonic ideal of an electricity market? Do you have one either in the US or elsewhere in the world that you would say, look, here is a system that actually manages to do both these things? Yeah, man, I love that question. I mean, I will say one of the real flaws in the US electricity system is that it is not as robustly a two-sided market as you would hope for. It's still demand just exists on the system. It's coming onto the system based on people's on the supply side guesses about what will happen.

47:54And then the supply side is expected to solve all of it. There's very little in the way of demand elasticity. And that's been for a variety of historical reasons. I mean, the first and most obvious one is that you didn't even have the technology in the form of advanced metering infrastructure to understand when people were actually using the power in relation to a highly time variable set of upstream costs. Now you do have that. You are also increasingly having the software that allows financial settlements on the part of the people retailing electricity to end-use consumers to be settled on the basis of that advanced metering infrastructure's actual meter reads, so on a time interval basis.

48:37And finally, because you shouldn't have to think about when you're going to blow dry your hair, you have a significant amount of device automation in the form of smart thermostats, battery storage, electric vehicles, manufacturing and industrial processes, which can be sort of a set it and forget it to automatically respond to high prices to try to increase the system's load factor and avoid using electricity at very high cost times. So that is just starting to happen in the American electricity sector. I would tend to look to the UK and Australia as places that have gone a bit ways further in trying to solve that problem and embrace the inherent flexibility of the system as versus the United States, which is kind of stuck in this sort of supply does something to demand framework of industry.

49:32So that's definitely on my, like, it's always on the top of my homework list, if only because I think a lot of people are thinking about solving this problem highly conventionally with supply additions, which is going to be really important. But that demand flexibility component is actually essential to get to a market that looks like every other efficient and competitive market in the world, which has two sides to it. We've been talking a lot about sort of the future looking forward and figuring out, you know, how that we're going to get all of this, this new capacity onto the market, et cetera.

50:05Let's look at the last several years. Like what happened? Part of the reason we're even having this conversation is because electricity bills are on people's minds, right? And they've been high and it's a little unclear, like how much of this is just keeping up with inflation. I presume that grid maintenance is actually straightforwardly an effective labor cost, inflation, et cetera. One thing we do know, however, is that the pace of electricity price increases really since the pandemic seems to have been a level step up. What's driven that? How would you characterize the last several years of electricity prices and perhaps the role of load growth in driving those increases?

50:42Yeah. So, so far, load growth is really not the contributor to what has happened here. It is almost an awakening to the fact that we had already, without any more load growth, a less reliable system than we thought we did. And that's due to a variety of reasons. We retired a lot of coal, which had a lot of emissions, but we replaced it with a bunch of natural gas. That created a sort of more of a dependency on an interrelated network system, the gas supply and pipeline system, which while usually very robust and very economically efficient in winter conditions where there's a lot of residential heating drawn, that system can show frailties.

51:30And so market operators in these electricity markets sort of derated the value of that capacity in how they set up these markets, which meant effectively a sort of administrative withdrawal of supply from some of these markets. similar to that renewables were seen not as a one-to-one replacement for reliable generation in the parts of the country the middle of the country especially where they were heavily invested in but they were really being leaned on as an effective substitute for more dispatchable power and i think everyone in the back of their head knew that wasn't the case but only recently as things have gotten tight, have people begun to do a lot of hard math around it?

52:15And then finally, we've just seen a few really traumatic winter storms in particular, one in the East and one in Texas, that have sort of reshaped the way in which the people who have responsibility to operate the grid think about the operational posture and need for reliable resources on the grid. And so there were a variety of regulatory changes that were made that had net of net the effect to tighten up the understanding of what generating capacity was available on the system relative to a base of demand that really didn't change. But suddenly, because of all of the retirements that had happened of coal and older gas due to economics as well as environmental regulation, we suddenly found ourselves pretty tight.

53:05And then this demand growth started to happen. So we were not particularly well positioned for the present moment of demand growth. We'd already driven the system to, some might call it a tight and efficient system. If you had demand growth, that was level, but it was not well situated to pick up tens and tens of new gigawatts of demand. I have a hypothetical question, but just as a theoretical exercise. If we are all in the pursuit of cheap and plentiful energy, and if as part of that pursuit, you could choose between two options, you could either wave a magic wand and get a bunch of nuclear reactors scattered around America, or you could wave a magic wand and get huge advances in battery technology across America.

53:52Which of those would be most conducive to having that cheap and plentiful energy supply? Yeah. I mean, I'm going to make a lot of my friends unhappy with this one, but I'd probably go batteries and storage. I think there are some natural economic advantages and wide swaths of the country for relatively affordable, even without subsidies, solar production in particular, and batteries seem like a pretty good natural match to that. It really has been in the kind of Texas story to date, the pairing of batteries and solar together with natural gas additions that have supported really the only electricity market that has been growing without data centers.

54:36So I would take that as the leading indicator. That's not to speak ill of my friends in the nuclear bro community. I hope that technology advances that seem to be occurring in the small modular space come to fruition. I just so far, I don't see a lot of people laying down serious capital on that from a commercial perspective. But I do see people laying down money on storage. I just have one last question, and it's kind of cheating. I'm actually my this question. I'm kind of going to have you do our work for us, et cetera. because, you know, I'm trying to think of a really good title for this episode.

55:14But if you look out over the next five years, you know, you mentioned adding a whole California to Texas. How are you thinking about the scale of the challenge overall that the U.S. electricity system, that the grid overall really faces in this moment? Like, how big is it that everyone from companies like yours to the various utility commissions, like how big is this challenge going to be? It could be a substantial one. I mean, I think that AI demand growth for electricity consumption is real. I also think that that growth needs to pony up financial commitments to engender capital investments in the power sector that it intends to rely upon.

55:56I think those will be the table stakes of their social license to operate in a grid that even where competition has been introduced remains pretty heavily regulated. So I think we're going to get there. I do think that in terms of the regulatory policy that I deal with, there's too much small ball thinking on this, and there's too much trust in the way we've always done things. It's probably a time to really have kind of regulatory policy innovations like we've seen with the FCC regulating spectrum and the deregulation of the airline industry that tries to allocate the capacity on the grid to the highest value, the people who are actually willing to pay the most for it.

56:45And those payments, which would likely exceed the incremental costs of serving them, could then actually be a revenue source back to consumers that helps on the affordability side. So it's almost a call to your listeners that if you're doing a mundane corporate job and want to do something completely different, consider becoming a utility regulator and applying some market-based principles to help solve some of these problems. because really when you think about it, utility regulation, they need to be an agent of capital formation here in the sector and to clarify this moment in terms of demand uncertainty.

57:25And that is the kind of challenge on a conceptual basis that we're grappling with. Travis Kavula, you know, we could talk to you for hours actually, just on, you know, I have a million more questions just about specifics from your time in Montana and how all those things work, but we'll let you go. Really appreciate your time. Let's do it again sometime. And I did learn a few things on this episode. So appreciate you coming on OddLogs. Thank you so much. Thank you so much, Travis. That was great.

58:02Tracy, I really like that. I really like the way you put it there in your question of we want to have a market-ish environment and demand signals are pretty important, et cetera. and we want capital to flow where it's going to be profitable and all that. We just don't really want any of the pain associated with the market. Yeah. And I mean, the irony is that the market could be functioning as intended in the sense that a large consumer of power, like a data center, decides to relocate itself to a place where energy costs are actually quite low. Yeah. And then because it does that, it ends up distributing the cost of its own power needs across a wider area.

58:43And it all seems, I mean, I'm just going to go back to what I said earlier, it all seems so convoluted and so idiosyncratic across different jurisdictions. I do actually really respect Travis's call just then, if you're interested in markets and want to have an impact on people's everyday lives, consider trying to clean up the mess that is energy regulation. But, you know, even in the non-convoluted version of it, if we just imagine the platonic ideal of a normal market and there's this commodity, electrons, and it's, well, what if AI is this really valuable thing and it's more valuable than blow drawing your hair?

59:21I mean, for real, this could be a thing. Like, you know, we were talking about making cars or making steel, et cetera. We'd be like, oh yeah, well, this is this value productive thing. I wasn't going to do it. I wasn't going to, but now I'm going to bring up that time you wrote that mining crypto could theoretically be a more valuable activity than running a fridge. Well, right. This is the question. In a normal market, the reason why that example seems absurd, I'm glad you actually brought it up, because the reason why that example seems absurd is because very few people could ever wrap their heads around, well, could crypto mining be more valuable or value add than running a fridge?

1:00:00That being said, when it comes to something like AI, there really is a debate. And some people would say that's a total waste because AI is just a costly way to make fast poems. And other people would say, no, this is the fourth industrial revolution or whatever. And so I think part of the reason we're sort of uncomfortable with the, oh, let's just move the electrons to where they're, who's going to pay for them most is because I don't think a lot of people, there are a lot of people who intuitively are skeptical that this is a good allocation of real resources. Right. I mean, I think politically the message that the cost of your electricity has to go up so that AI can do its thing and you can lose your job.

1:00:38Is it an extremely unpalatable one? No, it's totally, it's totally, I think this is why it's going to like break a lot of people's brains. But on the other hand, if we accept that, you know, the belief that markets are generally good allocators of resources, et cetera, they're like, well, it's not really our job to have an opinion on. This is a good use. This is not a good use. But anyway, I did find that to be interesting conversation. It does seem like those commissions that have to decide what is an appropriate amount to spend on upgrades and capacity, they really have their work cut out for them right now.

1:01:14Yeah. The way I would put it is they are not always the most popular people among their respective jurisdictions. That's for sure. Well, someone has to have the job of doing the unpopular stuff, right? Someone has to have the job of adequately compensating investors in utilities for the risks that they take on in providing a necessary commodity for life and the fourth industrial revolution. That's right. All right. Shall we leave it there? Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Jill Weisenthal.

1:01:46You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our guest Travis Cavula. He's at T Cavula. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmand Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot and Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks. For more Odd Lots content, Go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots, where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we try to untangle the U.S. utility landscape, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free.

1:02:24All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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