Trucking Is Booming Again, And Drivers Aren't Happy About It

22:20Or is this like a permanent cut in driver capacity in your mind? Well, I think if I'm not mistaken, the government in March of this year said that essentially non-domiciled CDLs, it's not going to be as easy to renew them. And so naturally, they'll start to expire and there will be less of them over time. And I mean, who knows? Obviously, we can't get a crystal ball out and see what's going to happen in the next election. So who the heck knows what another administration might do or might be able to do? Who knows how permanent any of this is? I mean, anyone's guess is as good as mine on that.

23:01Tracy Alloway:It occurs to me that there are sort of two interlinked things that strike me as interesting. So let's say, OK, you have the Ukrainian owned trucking company and a lot of non-DOM Ukrainian drivers. And then to your point, though, they're part of a broader network, and they might network with Ukrainian freight brokers, et cetera, et cetera. And now you have the Supreme Court ruling, which for the first time opens the door to the possibility of the broker, who traditionally wasn't held liable, would be the carrier if there's a major accident caused by them. So it feels to me like this combination, like you could literally obliterate like sort of like whole networks.

23:45Tracy Alloway:Like we think of the network as the driver, the truck, et cetera, but the network is also the sort of the capacity as the ecosystem itself. So structurally, this is, if this continues down the path it's on right now, and a lot of the pundits, you know, the legal experts I know, I could name a couple have said in the last day that if this all keeps going down this path, this is a serious structural issue for the freight brokerage business model. And if the freight brokerage business model is in trouble, then naturally, that means that the long tail of trucking companies who primarily get their freight from freight brokers, they're in trouble too.

24:24And so, you know, historically, freight brokers have had to have processes to audit the carriers they set up and audit the carriers they give freight to. And each one has kind of had their own process for that. And that's evolved. And there's been a lot of technology that's gone into the vetting and compliance side of freight brokerage in the last couple of years, mainly because another thing we haven't talked about, which is the whole rabbit hole is cargo theft. Cargo theft has been through the roof since COVID. And there's been a kind of a huge amount of criminal element, like large criminal elements that have come in and are doing everything from spoofing carriers, pretending to be carriers to setting up fraudulent entities, acting like a normal carrier for a while, then figuring out where the good freight is, stealing that and then disappearing.

25:09Oh, wow. I thought you just meant someone like picking a box off the back of the truck or something. No, no, no, no. Like, I'm talking like mafia type stuff, right? Like crime rings. And that's exploded in the last couple of years. And so as a result of that, freight brokers have been much more scrutinous of who they're hiring. And now, you know, safety, which is kind of the element we're talking about here with regard to the Supreme Court ruling is like, okay, what's a safe carrier, right? And so far, brokers have really kind of relied on the FMCSA's rating, right? It's satisfactory, conditional or not rated, right?

25:47And so traditionally, it's like, okay, I hired a satisfactory carrier, it says on the FMCSA's website, they're satisfactory, that must mean something, therefore, they're good, I'm going to hire them. And they go like there recently, there was CH Robinson was involved in a case where they hired a carrier that was satisfactory that had done like 200 plus loads for them, and then was involved in a wreck. And now they're facing like a$600 million judgment, right? And they're appealing it naturally. But if that I mean, if that holds true, like the freight broker business model is going to be in serious trouble, because the government's not really telling them like clearly, okay, this is a safe carrier.

26:24This is the vetting standard. Use this. If you do this, you're covered, right? Yeah. They're not really doing that. There's a lot of, there's a lot of kind of gray areas around this. And that's, that's naturally going to cause a lot of problems for freight brokers. And like I said, the vast majority of these small carriers, and there's hundreds of thousands of these companies, they get their freight from freight brokers because they can't go. It's difficult for them to go get direct customers. It's traditionally like if, if I'm a one truck operator and I walk into Kraft Heinz, Kraft Heinz is going to be like, yo, like, I'm not giving you freight.

26:54I'm going to give freight to the broker who can give me a thousand trucks or, you know, Knight Swift who can give me 10 ,000 trucks. Yeah. So it's just a very, it's a very difficult time.

27:04Tracy Alloway:Yeah. This is Tracy. I think like maybe we need to broaden our conception of what capacity means because we think of it as drivers. We think of it as trucks, et cetera. But if there is a small carrier and it's 10 trucks and 10 drivers, if they can't really like plug into a network that they know. Yeah. And that is is that even capacity? I'm looking at a headline right now from I guess this is a stat from Roadmaster Group, but they're saying cargo theft jumped 60 percent last year. That just came out three hours ago. And also there's a New York Times headline saying nearly 11000 bottles of bourbon were stolen from a Philadelphia warehouse as a result of coordinated cargo.

27:43Tracy Alloway:It's funny because you and I both just assumed that when you said cargo theft, that he was like banditry. Yeah, like, you know, like in Goodfellas, you like tell the truck. That's as far as my criminal ambitions can stretch. And then the truck driver is like, please beat me up, right? Do you remember that in Goodfellas? He's like, please beat me up so that my own boss does not think that I stole it. And, but it is much more sophisticated. They've targeted Guy Fieri. Guy Fieri had freight stolen. Like all these celebrities in the last like year have like seemingly come out with liquor brands and they're all being targeted too.

28:15Like, I think Shaq's, like, Range Rover got stolen off a car hauler. Like, there's been all sorts of crazy stuff. But, I mean, all jokes aside, like, it is crazy. It is crazy what's going on. And seemingly, it's only getting worse despite all the scrutiny and all the tech that's been kind of brought in. But, Tracy, you did kind of mention something interesting, or maybe it was Joe, kind of the different types of capacity, right? Like, one thing that I'm thinking a lot about, and I'm not a freight broker anymore, so I'm slightly removed, although I did do it for many years. historically, there's not really been, freight's really a commodity.

28:49And there's, you know, one carrier versus the other might ask you for more money, but you don't really have a good reason to pay carrier A much more than carrier B. You know, some situations might be like, okay, you know, yeah, I'll give you a couple hundred extra bucks because I know you, I trust you, and that's worth it. But it's pretty much the same service, right? Like you expect the stuff to go from one place to another. Yeah, yeah. And traditionally, it's been viewed as a commodity. but like now that there's this kind of extra scrutiny on the brokers vetting process and the hiring process, like there might start to be a kind of strata of carriers where like they've got the best ratings.

29:26They're the safest operators. Like they're able to fetch a premium and brokers might be like, shoot, like I have to pay them more because I need to check these boxes so that if they get into rec, God forbid, I'm as covered as I possibly can be in the event that some, you know, billboard attorney tries to sue me for six hundred million dollars. Yeah, that's really interesting. So like you could start to see more, I guess, diversification come into the market or like stratification on rates, people paying a premium for certain services or trust. I think that would make sense to me if that if that happens.

29:59I think that would make sense. The jury's out on if that'll happen, but that makes sense to me. The other thing I want to ask about is just how do people feel about becoming truckers at this particular moment. So rates are up. It seems like the money's there, or at least there's more money there than there used to be a few years ago. But at the same time, we still hear complaints about it's a tough life. You're on the road all the time. The hours are insane. Like maybe you're waiting hours at a port to pick up a load. Hard to find parking. Hard to find parking, clearly. There's a lot to say here.

30:31There's a lot to say here. And it's actually interesting because I did just, you know, at Truck Park, we run a survey of all of our driver base basically every week. And I happened a couple of weeks ago to do a survey basically just about like driver's opinions on the state of the industry. Right. Would you recommend this job to a friend? Like, how do you feel about trucking? And anecdotally, I can say that in my discussions with my driver friends, like it seems like morale is at an all time low. That's just the anecdotal what I hear from people. but structurally i mean or what i see kind of in these surveys is like like there's a strong sense of nostalgia in trucking like it was much better then than it is now right you look at like the 70s and 80s when you had smoking the bandit yeah movies like that truckers were like cow yeah truckers were cowboys right or explorers or frontiersmen right and they were respected and it was something that was a desire it was kind of the last kind of frontier right you're out on the road, kind of figuring it out.

31:32And now it seems for whatever reason, that that kind of ethos has been damaged. And and you hear a kind of a lot of just kind of like a mourning of the industry when you talk to drivers. And like, in this manifests itself, like if you go to a truck stop, and you just kind of pulled random drivers, I guarantee you that if you ask them, you know, were things better in the past than they are now? And maybe this is just a human thing, to a degree, perhaps. So this isn't like a scientific study by any means. But like, there is a strong sense that things were better in the past. And I think there's a lot of reasons for that.

32:05So, you know, technology for the driver is a bad word, traditionally.

32:12Tracy Alloway:Yeah. Okay. Because technology for the driver has meant surveillance. It's meant in cab cameras, surveilling their every move for liability reasons. It's meant speed limiters. It's meant electronic logging devices, which severely limits their freedom to operate as they see fit on the road. So it's all of these things that have kind of like constrained them. Right. And if you think about traditional trucking as freedom on the road, like this, these are all anti-freedom things. Right. And so if the traditional trucker is looking for a job that gives them freedom, they're not finding that as much anymore.

32:49And so technology has had a bad rap. And I tend to agree with the driver on that. Like, there's all sorts of reasons why all those things are useful. But like, I can understand why they would feel that way.

33:02Tracy Alloway:Yeah. Right. If we start from the premise that it's already going to be a lifestyle sacrifice and you're like, well, OK, it's a lifestyle sacrifice, but there's a paycheck and everyone makes a lifestyle sacrifice paycheck. But if it turned out that is like in the past, It was a lifestyle sacrifice plus a paycheck plus a certain culture of freedom and this sort of maybe. Burgers at roadside cafes. Yeah, just like all the sort of. And then it's just like, no, it's no longer that. It's just the lifestyle sacrifice for the paycheck. Then that's a different equation.

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35:20Visit Bahamar.com today. The other thing is, just on the technology front, is for years now, we've been hearing that, you know, self-driving trucks are coming down the line. So I imagine if you're a young person thinking about getting a CDL, maybe you're no longer looking at it as a viable long-term career. Yeah, I mean, autonomous is very interesting. It's anyone's guess how long that's going to take to really reach significant levels of adoption. I know there are many companies currently operating autonomous lanes, mostly in Texas. And we do talk to these companies because one thing people ask is like, okay, if all the trucks are autonomous, do they even need to park?

35:58Does your business still exist? And so we have a whole... One, there's still trailers. Trailers need to be staged. Yeah, they still have to park, right? They must do. Yeah. And people forget that there's many... Oh, people are suggesting that they'll just keep driving forever. Like they never need to stop, basically. Yeah. Okay, I see. All right. And they're like, okay, you know, and I've got my whole reasons why that's actually not the case. And we're actually kind of in deep conversations with the autonomous companies because autonomous trucks need reliable staging. And they need to be able to plug into a network to know that if I arrive at this location, I'm going to have a spot.

36:32And truck stops and rest areas do not provide that level of surety at all.

36:36Tracy Alloway:Yeah. Right? I honestly do think that of all the trending topics that we've talked about, a lot of them are really kind of like billboard level things. Shocking. Like Guy Fieri's tequila gets stolen, right? Like cargo theft. Not the mayor of Flavortown. Right. But parking is really actually... I mean, it is one of the top issues when you talk to drivers. Like if not the top... Like a quality of life issue is what you're saying, right? It's unbelievable. It's a quality of life issue, but it's also a pay issue. Like a significant pay issue. And let me explain. I hinted at ELDs, so electronic logging devices.

37:11In 2017, it was either 2017 or 2018. I can't remember now. But the government mandated every truck must have an electronic logging device. So drivers are allowed to operate 14 hours a day, 11 of which they're allowed to drive. Okay? And there's no moving that around. And if you go over that 11 hours, you're in trouble. It's going to hurt your record. It might increase your insurance premiums. It'll cost you money. It's a problem, right? You do not want to do that. And so naturally what that means is the driver's day is very rigid. You know, I was driving to work this morning on I-75 in northern Georgia.

37:46There's a rest area I pass every day. And every day there's trucks lining the exit ramp of the rest area, like on the highway. And how those trucks end up there is they've got two hours left on their clock. It's 5 p.m. Like they're rolling down the highway. They're trying to go as far as they can because they're paid by the mile. Right. And they don't get that time back if they lose it. And they're trying to get as close to their destination as possible. And what that means is naturally, there's a trade off every single day that every driver makes who's driving over the road. It's like, okay, I could park now, but I've got four hours left.

38:22Right? Yeah, I can park now and take a spot at the truck stop that's open because it's 3pm and nobody's parked yet. Or I could keep going down the highway go before more hours and end up in the middle of Atlanta at 8pm and with nowhere to go. Right. And so there's, there's a serious cost associated with losing those four hours. Right. And four hours is a bit of an egregious, like that does happen every single day. But even if it's one hour, right, if you think about the cost to operate a truck, if you think about how many miles you're able to drive in an hour, like, and then you multiply that across an entire year for a driver or for a fleet, you multiply that across their entire, all of their drivers, like in the cost and the productivity loss go sky high really, really quickly.

39:06And historically, there's been not really much fleets or drivers could do about that. Right. And not only is it a pay issue, but it is a quality of life issue to your point, Tracy, like you guys live in New York city. I don't know if you have cars, but parking in New York city, not the easiest place to park in the country. To put it mildly. To put it mildly. Right. And naturally that will mean, you know, if I'm coming into New York and I want to go to a Knicks game and it's two hours before, like I got to be methodical about, okay, I'm going to go here. I'm going to park there. I'm going to get there then.

39:39And if that's too much of a pain, I'm not going to go, right? I'm not going to go do that thing. But when you live in rural, you know, Georgia, you don't think anything about where you're going to park. You're like, oh yeah, I'll be fine. Like, I'm just going to go right there i got a place to park and what truck drivers like my analogy is like truck drivers every single day is like being in new york city in the super bowl the world series the nba finals the nhl finals are all there on the same day and there's nowhere to park at all and you have to go and it's going to be a total it's going to cause you lots of stress you're going to be like what the heck am i going to do right and that's every single day okay but explain this because america has a lot of roads.

40:19It's got a lot of highways, a lot of interstates. Where are all the parks? Like, why do we seem to have a shortage? Maybe it's not even a shortage. Maybe it's misplanning of resting areas for trucks. Why the scarcity? Because it's very, the traditional places to park, which are rest areas, which are built by the state or the federal government and truck stops. And those can only go in so many places, right? loves and TA and pilot, like they would love to build more locations, but it's not like you can just put them anywhere, right? There's only so many interstate exits where it's appropriate to put a truck stop and economical because they're super expensive, right?

40:57And then rest areas are very, very expensive to build. Like if you look at some of these projects that the government funds, it's like sometimes it's as much as$200 ,000 to$300 ,000 per space by the time a project is done, and it takes years to complete. And so structurally, it's just difficult to build capacity. And between rest areas and truck stops, there's about 700 ,000 spaces provided by these traditional sources, but there's millions of trucks on the road, right? And millions of them need a place to park on a daily basis. And so naturally what you see is, if you talk to any driver, 5 p.m.

41:33every day, the truck stops full. Like I talked to an owner operator yesterday who's parked with us. So basically what we enable them to do is fire up their phone, find a place to park, basically no matter what, in any time of day, in essentially almost any city at this point. And what the difference that makes for a driver, let me explain. So I talked to an owner operator yesterday. He's parked with us 56 times in the last year. And he's spent, like, obviously, he's spending his own hard-earned money on that. But he's not just doing that and operating the same way that he would if he were just parking at the truck stop.

42:06He's thinking, like, okay, like, I'm going into Denver. and Denver is a hard place to park. It's gonna be 7 p.m. by the time I get there. I have to deliver at three in the morning in the middle of Denver. I'm gonna pay 25 bucks or 30 bucks or 40 bucks to park a mile from my warehouse versus parking 30 miles away at the truck stop and having to negotiate the hours of service requirements to be able to go and leave. And so that money he's spending, he's positioning himself properly next to his delivery. He can be there on time. He doesn't have to fight traffic. He's the first one there. He gets empty.

42:44And that surety just offers him much more reliable planning. Right. And that just means that just means his life is easier. Right. It's less stressful. He's not driving into New York during the World Series every single day. And that's just an anecdote from a driver.

43:01Tracy Alloway:Right. So the key thing, though, just to understand this is a big function of this is the fact that drivers get paid by the mile, not the hour. And so if in the ideal world, you have 11 hours on the road, 11 hours where you're allowed to be behind the wheel, you're going 60 miles an hour, maybe on average, you cover 660 miles in a day, that's a good day or something like that. If three hours of those are spent waiting in line for something by the side of the road, because you're not sure if there's going to be parking when you hit the 11th hour that's three hours of your day they're not getting paid that's three hours gone that's three hours of behind the road time that clocks to your that goes to your maximum that is not compensated yeah yeah that's not compensated and and the fleet loses those productive asset hours too right like there's layers to this and then all this you know you multiply that across the entire trucking market and that's like a serious kind of like throughput issue for the supply chain yeah Like, I can't emphasize this enough.

44:02Like, still to this day, most people in the industry do not think, oh, they just think, oh, well, this is a problem. We all agree this is a problem. What are we going to do? Oh, well, we need to wait around for the government to allocate enough money and build enough spaces to fix this problem. And that's just not going to happen if we're honest with ourselves. And it makes sense. The government should be investing in this critical infrastructure. It's needed. Great. Do it. Get as much as we can. The drivers need it. The more the merrier. But all the while, we're adding, you know, sometimes 1500 new spaces to our network a week, right a week.

44:39Cool. And so we're at like, you know, near 90 ,000. And we're adding more spaces in a week than truck stops build an entire year, right. And we're already have a larger more spaces than the largest truck stop chain, right. And soon we'll have more than all of them combined. And soon we'll have more than all of the public infrastructure combined. And that's going to just fundamentally reshape how drivers and fleets are able to operate. And that might sound hyperbolic to people who don't think about this like I do, but it is a very meaningful change to just the life of a driver. It just really is.

45:14And just to the productivity of a fleet, the driver's pay, the driver's health, like it touches turnover, it touches cargo safety, it touches all of kind of the hot topics we've talked about. Like it's all connected to this. It's all connected. So I'm getting fired up, guys. I'm getting fired up. Yeah, that's great. We talked a lot about the supply side of the industry. Can we just discuss demand a little bit more? Like on a basic level, what are you seeing from your network? Are you seeing pockets where things are really hot right now, where, for instance, data centers are being constructed and things like that?

45:48Yes. You know, the components of the data centers are obviously incredibly expensive. You're talking turbines. you're talking, obviously GPUs and all that, and super, super expensive, and naturally, targets for theft. And so we've had direct conversations with folks building data centers, and are actively working on projects to kind of help them plan, okay, we're going to stage here, we're going to stage here, like we need locations here. And so we're actively working on that right now. So to answer your question directly, yes, yes, of course, we are seeing we are seeing pockets of demand and we are seeing you know it's it's interesting because we're just kind of like this so it's hard to tell like what's seasonal and what's not when you're just kind of like this no matter what you know maybe in two years like we'll be able to like have much more okay this is like this season this is that season but yeah i mean the short answer to your question

46:38Tracy Alloway:is yes all right uh reed luce delo thank you so much for uh coming on odd lots for all the trucking episodes we've done we've actually learned quite a bit more on this one so really appreciate you take your time. Yeah, I appreciate you, Joe and Tracy. You guys are killing it. Joe, your Twitter game is strong, man. I love following you. I always smash like. But thanks for having me on. I really appreciate it. Thanks so much for you. That was fun. Thanks, guys.

47:17Tracy Alloway:Tracy, I'm so glad we did that episode. There's so many interesting, so much interesting texture, maybe is the word, to the trucking market that is easy to not really observe if you're just looking at very simple metrics like line going up or how much physical capacity there is in a day. Yeah. I mean, it seems like a lot has changed for sure. It does seem like some of the things we talked about are more structural than cyclical. Right. And again, who knows what the next administration is going to do. But for instance, a Supreme Court ruling saying that brokers can be held liable for dangerous hauls and things like that, that would appear to be something that's going to stick around and possibly affect the industry for years to come.

47:59Tracy Alloway:No, it seems like a really big deal. And Reid put it really well. It's like, OK, like maybe there's fewer brokerages in the future, et cetera. But then it's like, OK, you might have drivers and carriers. It's capacity. Maybe it's even safe, well-trained, very fluent in English capacity. But it might not have the scale to sort of plug into whatever that sort of new network or ecosystem looks like in a world with fewer brokers. Is it really capacity then at that point? And then it also means that the freight brokerage game isn't always going to be a race to the bottom, which I'm sure there's going to be a broker firm out there who complains.

48:37But like the impression you get is a little bit like, you know.

48:40Tracy Alloway:Yeah. And also, I think, you know, one of the things that we both observed when we started doing trucking episodes is why is there still so much humans in the middle? It's because it's not a fungible market in the classic sense. It's very idiosyncratic, kind of like the corporate bond market is the analogy that we use. If we have to get even more gradations of safety ratings. By the way, the FMCSA, he said that term, and so I wanted to tell people what it was, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. So it's like if we need more gradations of safety ratings for the existing brokerages to feel comfortable with them, having thought about this for five minutes, I will now weigh in on policy.

49:26Tracy Alloway:It would be probably helpful if there was one rating where it said if the broker goes with this rating, they are clear in terms of these sort of nuclear settlements or these nuclear lawsuits, et cetera, that could destroy a whole company. It probably would be good to have, like, at least on your part, a clear box that you can check that establishes that you've done the right thing. Credit ratings for freight brokers? Yeah. And it's like if you, you know, it's like there are other there are various ways to get in trouble. But if you get the AAA carrier, if the broker goes with the AAA carrier, at least on that level, they've done their due diligence.

50:01Nothing bad can ever happen from AAA ratings. All right. Shall we leave it there?

50:05Tracy Alloway:Let's leave it there. This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. And I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart. Follow our producers, Carmen Rodriguez at CarmenArmond, Dashiell Bennett at Dashbot, Kale Brooks at Kale Brooks, and Kevin Lozano at Kevin Lloyd Lozano. And for more OddLots content, go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLots, where we have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all of these topics 24-7 in our Discord, discord.gg slash OddLots. And if you enjoy OddLots, if you like it when we do these trucking episodes, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform.

50:41And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, You can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening.

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