Jessica Tarlov on Winning Arguments and Elections

19:03Jessica Tarlov:Like, do you think there's a biological advantage to someone who went through puberty as a man? Yeah. No matter how much gender affirming care you have had, there remains certain advantages. And if you can't say that, then they look at you like you've lost the plot. This is how Andy Beshear deals with it.

19:23Kara Swisher:Right, right, right. I get that. We're going to deal with trans issues later. I have some. I think they've made it into a bigger deal than it is.

19:28Jessica Tarlov:They absolutely have. But if you just say, no, I won't. I get it. This is like you're not legitimate or I'm not platforming.

19:35Kara Swisher:It's like eating the cats and eating the dogs to me at this point. Speaking of what you were talking about, every episode you get a question from an outside expert. Let's listen to yours. Hey, guys. Anthony Scaramucci here, founder of Skybridge, but also the host of The Rest is Politics U.S. and a man that has been fired faster than any Fox News host in history. So, Jess, I have ruined more than one Thanksgiving dinner conversation. So here's my question. What do you say to the uncle who doesn't want to have the civil conversation, who just wants the win? How do you talk that person down, Jess?

20:09Kara Swisher:That's the question. Now apply some of these concepts.

20:12Jessica Tarlov:Here you are at Thanksgiving dinner. I love that Anthony was mine. I was wondering who I was going to get. So there's a lot in the book about this, and I practice it for basically listening to the other four of my co-hosts, which is the lost art of listening. And people are very desperate to be heard and for it to look like you're actually processing what they're saying. That doesn't mean that you have to agree with it or go along with even any aspect of it. But too much of our political discourse and especially in these family gatherings, because I've had this back and forth with I have an uncle who voted for Trump because of Israel.

20:52Jessica Tarlov:That's, you know, one of the big fissures going on now on our side of the fence. And I realized I was just too quick to cut him off all the time or to bring something else in that I thought countered its point. And when I sat back and let him go, I realized actually that he started arguing against himself without even noticing it because he started bringing in other facts on the ground where he would say, well, but of course it hasn't panned out when it comes to the economy. And actually what's going on in Iran, you know, I'm a little bit concerned, kind of like the Mark Levin set of concerns about the war.

21:32Jessica Tarlov:And so letting somebody get it out and be heard, I think it's the first thing that you have to do. And it also really frustrates them when you are calm. It makes they get more enjoyment out of it if it turns hot on both sides. And the same thing is true on the five. If you notice, maybe a few times a year, I actually get really like flustered and angry and, you know, like beating the table. But in general, I'm just pretty cool about it, which I think diffuses the situation. You can send that signal to them. Like when I say, oh, you know, you're right, where they know. I obviously don't think that.

22:13Jessica Tarlov:But that people just feel better when they have been hurt and they are more likely to hear you if you have afforded them that space.

22:21Kara Swisher:Now, on the opposite side, that means you facilitating the comedy and not them, right? Like on one part of it, I had gotten an argument. I was in Kentucky and I was talking about tech stuff there. And, you know, immediately it started to get into liberal leads from coastal, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And I said, I was like, you know, you don't like us normal people. And I put my head up and I said, I'm a fucking normal person. Like, why do you get to win the normal fight, right? Like, I noticed I'm here and you're never in San Francisco. So why I'm here? Like, why do I have to come here? And why do you get to be called the normal person?

23:02Kara Swisher:And we then ended up having an interesting conversation. I'm like, you're not interested in my life in any way whatsoever or what I have to think. And so I think we spent a lot of time coddling these groups. I mean, and I think part of the problem, you know, for you to deal with on your show, And again, it was interesting, you know, you're trying to get to something. At some point, it's like arguing with someone who will never, ever change. Do you feel that these techniques make people change?

23:31Jessica Tarlov:I've seen evidence of it in not only behaviors in terms of how they deal with me, but in little bits of information that I'm either talking about on air or even in commercial breaks seeping into commentary. I mean, much hay in the last few weeks has been made of how lucid Jesse Waters seems about Abdul El-Sayed or about John Ossoff or Natalie Harp, right, that he was like, I'm not going to pretend that I'm so offended that John Ossoff, you know, said that about her. And this happened also a couple of years ago about Wes Moore because I'd been talking about Wes Moore a lot in commercial breaks and pointing out, you know, he's out there at the tailgate because, you know, they're obsessed with definitions of masculinity.

24:18Jessica Tarlov:Right. And how real men don't vote for Democrats. And then, you know, Hassan Piker on the Jumbotron and Nespito or whatever is going on at their conferences. But what I was talking about in the breaks and drawing Jesse's attention to, like, John Ossoff, how much work he does in his district, and that's why he was getting these crossover endorsements from Republican mayors, he brought it up on a day actually I wasn't even on the show. and I do think that that's a result of I mean we're in this contained environment and everyone no one else's life is going to look like mine right no one who's reading this book has this job and I I'm compensated to go to work so I'm not trying to make this out like it's the same thing as having to deal with Anthony's uncle necessarily but the more time we spend in their spaces and talking about not just quote unquote normal things, but the things that actually matter to voters, because that's where I think the big disconnect is.

25:22Jessica Tarlov:Like they would still tell you or some would that like trans issues is going to be on top of the ballot or that even immigration is going to be in the same way. You know, people might have been holding up mass deportation now signs, but in reality, they wanted a closed border. Right. And they got that. and now they can see what Stephen Miller is doing and the terror that ICE is wreaking all over the country. I guess it's more as like, why are we in the business of educating?

25:53Kara Swisher:Because they win elections. That's really your - You have no choice.

25:57Jessica Tarlov:Yeah, right, right. That's honestly how I feel about it. I happen to also get along with them. I've known them a very long time. You know, families. I mean, you've worked at huge organizations. You know about relationships that you have with people with different sets of beliefs, ideological backgrounds. But we have to win elections. There is no change that is possible without owning those seats. You know, you can listen to Congressman Garcia talk about all the plans for what's going to happen with oversight, right? The investigations that they're going to do. That doesn't happen unless we win and honestly win big.

26:31Jessica Tarlov:It has to be too big to rig because they're going to try for that as well. And I just, if you're not in the arena and you're not competing, and there are different ways to do this. You know, this is like a full body contact approach that I have. But even people who are journalists, like what you've been doing over the years, right? You know, putting these ideas and, you know, essentially starting counterculture movements against the way that society is moving vis-a-vis tech. You're doing that through your interviews.

26:59Kara Swisher:You're talking about making the argument, right?

27:01Jessica Tarlov:And that's. Well, making the argument, but in the places that matter. There's a lot of blue sky bubbling that goes on.

27:08Kara Swisher:I would agree. I would agree.

27:09Jessica Tarlov:And I'm not here to throw stones at anybody. If that's what you want to do, that's your business. It just is not changing any hearts and minds. And also, I think that it's reinforcing a reality to yourself that is inconsistent with real life. True.

27:26Kara Swisher:I do think the other members of the five are incredibly cynical. I think it's a performative game with a lot of them. Some of them believe it. I think a lot of them are playing a game, and it's a super dangerous game. That's why it's like, why even engage with people who are so – because they get through to people. That's your point.

27:44Jessica Tarlov:Can I just say something about that? So first of all, I do think that in general, conservatives believe in more of this than you would think. Because there's like this normalcy test that you kind of put out there where you say, okay, well, we're all reading the same jobs report, right? Or we're all seeing the same GDP report. And it's quite obvious what's going on here. You know, however you want to do it, like the markers of how the war in Iran is going, etc. And then something that I've learned over the years, even before I was on The Five and obviously spending most of my time with this set group of people, but just floating around and meeting different folks and coming on their shows and talking to them, is that there is a much bigger, I don't know if permission structure is the right term to use for this, but they are so much more willing to excuse things.

28:42Jessica Tarlov:things that may not be going well or that they don't like in service to the greater goal, which we don't do, right?

28:50Kara Swisher:That's been a Republican hallmark for a long time. Totally.

28:52Jessica Tarlov:But it's funny because they think that we fall in line. It's so funny because I'm like, we would be doing a lot better, actually, if we would stop sniping at each other like this. But they just, to some degree, don't care if they believe in the larger set of goals or, frankly, in the person. I mean, the personal faith that they have in Donald Trump is like nothing that I've seen.

29:18Kara Swisher:There is also, you know, when I started seeing it for the first time, I studied propaganda in college. That was my area. I was like, wow, they're using all the propaganda techniques. It's really interesting to watch the reinforcement, the constant repetition, the entertainment, the demonization. You know, it's the same techniques. And so part of me wonders what they actually believe versus what's a performance. And maybe it blends, like you said, it blends into everything. But a lot of the time, I find it deeply, deeply cynical, especially since most of them live in very fancy places and away from most of the people they purport to be hanging out with.

29:55Kara Swisher:You know, they're not people of the people would be.

29:57Jessica Tarlov:No, everyone is a, you know, upper middle class to mega rich person that gets to wear HD hair and makeup, you know, for a living. It's rarefied air. But it doesn't mean that it isn't communicating a belief system that does resonate with rubes or whatever, you know, and that's how they can be successful about it. What is your counter argument to it or how should it be?

30:25Kara Swisher:I think a really good argument, I suppose Obama, like, right, there's a positive come into our bigger place where we're not hating each other kind of thing. I think there's a real resonant. I think that that's the opposite side of America, which is there's a hate side and it's really strong and a fear side. And then there's a hope side that does. That's why Obama resonated there. You're making a good argument for things, for the way things could be for everybody.

30:52Jessica Tarlov:Totally. And that's how you have miracles.

30:54Kara Swisher:That's right. We'll be back in a minute.

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34:46Kara Swisher:Let's get into this, what's going on. Last week, the Republican Party had a convention in Dallas or what's been called Trumpapalooza. I wish we would stop making those things. And President Trump announced that he would give a quote$5 ,000 Trump dividend to every adult citizen in the U.S. if Republicans win in November. this would cost more than$1 trillion. He's made similar promises many times. Many. Talk a little bit about this, because I think he's trying to counter the idea that the economy sucks and we need more money, or you're taking our money. You just a second ago said they will take his word for everything.

35:21Kara Swisher:Is that shifting, or what was your perception?

35:24Jessica Tarlov:I didn't say they take his word for everything. I said that they believe in him and that he is stewarding the country in the right direction. Listen, Jesse made fun of it. He said it was akin to an enticement, like when you go on a date with someone, right, and you're kind of hedging, like, you know. And so in that sense, he knows exactly what it is, that this isn't going to happen and that it feels ickier to call it a bribe, which is what I was calling it and you would call it and any sane person would call it. I think largely, though, that people know this is not happening and that none of this has happened.

36:01Jessica Tarlov:The tariff dividend check, the savings from the health care. There was one other, too.

36:06Kara Swisher:Yeah, there were a couple.

36:07Jessica Tarlov:So I think this is the phase where there is an opportunity for a big Democratic win in the midterms because people are glazed over to this. You know, the ratings were worse than the average night on Fox. So when Trump was talking the 10 p.m. hour, if Gutfeld had run, it would have done better than which I think is saying something.

36:30Kara Swisher:Now, he also mockingly talked about affordable billions and prices were dropping. They are not. Is it wearing off? Because it's interesting how much were Republicans campaigning in bumper stickers, as you've put it, and what effect does that have? And especially when you're making an argument, your book's about making an argument. What is the argument here? He's lying, which is something you could say any given day and twice on Tuesday. Yeah.

36:54Jessica Tarlov:I mean, if you're making the counter argument against Trump right now, you could say, you know, there's a laundry list of promises that he has made to you that should fill up your pocket after he has robbed you of what was in your pocket in the first place. But without a strong counter, i.e. what you are going to get if you vote for the other guy, I think that you have a big electoral problem on your hands. And I know, you know, I have spoken to leadership about this. I'm sure that you have as well. You know, you talk to people who, you know, are very influential on Capitol Hill. And I've said until you have the three policies that define the midterm elections for Democrats, where it's not just I'm going to reverse everything that that guy did, it has to be a positive affirmation of what the future could look like.

37:45Jessica Tarlov:And I've made up numbers like I don't know if 10 million is the right number, but why are we not saying 10 million affordable housing units will be built? Right. Like there has to be some smart reforms to Obamacare, not just putting the subsidies back in, you know, because Obamacare was still too expensive for people. It's obviously way too expensive now. You know, are you going to do remember from the first term where Trump said for every new regulation, we're going to cut 10. that's what mom donnie is doing here in new york people are going bananas for it right right right

38:20Kara Swisher:like you have to articulate so when you're in the i those are my bumper so i disagree isn't enough

38:25Jessica Tarlov:it's i disagree and is what you're saying yeah it's a full argument i i just wanted i disagree because that is the baseline reality of majority of the conversations that i'm having with my colleagues and there are different ways to back into that there are different tools that you can use, you know, different olive branches. I call it the soft start, you know, where you have to find some way to create connective tissue, not only for the people you're sitting next to, but to signal to, you know, three and a half to four million people that you're not there just to explode bombs and collect a paycheck and get out of there.

39:00Jessica Tarlov:Right. And be sort of the liberal

39:02Kara Swisher:voice, the singular voice. Let me do another topic then. Speakers included Vice President J.D. Vance. He touted Trump's immigration enforcement efforts. You were critical of Blue City mayors who refused to cooperate with ICE when it comes to, quote, turning over people who have committed crimes on American soil. But I just spoke with three Democratic mayors and they're concerned in part because ICE is turning people with no criminal records, which has been well documented and well reported because they're running out of people. Like, you know, if essentially that's what it is.

39:28Jessica Tarlov:Well, when you have a 3000 person a day quota, you're going to start picking up the wrong guys.

39:33Kara Swisher:You're not going to find all those criminals. There's not that many of them. So break down the criticism and where mayors refusing to turn over people who've committed crimes on U.S. soil. I have yet to see that.

39:44Jessica Tarlov:It was more about it being part of the way that we talk about immigration and ICE right now. One example, and I think Kathy Hochul is doing an awesome job. I feel like she has really, I mean, do you remember, I guess, a year ago, eight months to a year ago, when there were real conversations around if she had a challenger, maybe she wouldn't make it through and recruiting Richie Torres. And I think she's just been a total badass. She handled Mom Donnie's campaign and election, I think, perfectly. But one example that I would use is what happened to Sheridan Gorman, who is a New Yorker. She, 18 years old, from Mike Lawler's district, Republican, was murdered by someone who was here illegally in Illinois.

40:29Jessica Tarlov:And there have been hearings where Jessica Gorman, Sheridan Gorman's mother, has spoken at. And it got really testy. And Congresswoman Jayapal was like, we just keep doing this over and over. And there's a grieving mother sitting there. Now, do I think that she's being used as a political pawn? Yes, to some degree. Do I think that that matters in the optics of it and in those kinds of moments? Not so much. And so there I felt like there was an opportunity, like we saw Tim Wall's take after the murders of Renee Good and Alex Prattie to signal the places where you think there can be valuable cooperation and that you will call Tom Homan up right now and you will say, let's figure this out because we can't have another Sheridan Gorman or another Lake and Riley.

41:18Jessica Tarlov:So that's more what I was talking about when I say this kind of cooperation. A lot of it is a messaging signal because for people who do care about this, and we all do, No one wants these young women slaughtered by people who have no business being in this country. Like if you got in here illegally and you want to start a new life and contribute, which most of them do, and pay into Social Security, I think immigrants are one of the more incredible facets of our society, not just as human beings but also obviously in what they do for the economy. But we continue to talk about it in the wrong way.

41:56Jessica Tarlov:And just the drumbeat of abolish ICE or I'm not talking to those guys, the side by side with a grieving mother, it doesn't make us look that great. Now, is that swaying people? Are they showing up to vote purely based on that? No. Barely. And you live in a big blue zone. Barely at this point. Interesting. But it doesn't.

42:16Kara Swisher:Yeah. Sure. Yes, barely. They should be very ahead. They should be extraordinary. Yes.

42:21Jessica Tarlov:A lot of that, I think, is also just quality of life, like people's economic. Yeah, they feel. Yes. They're poorer than they were and wages are not going up and all of that stuff. So it makes it harder for you to say, yeah, actually, I think Republicans are better on this. But I would say if you go down the line reputationally and ask people, you know, do you think that Democrats are taking this as seriously as you would like to? They would still say no. And they would still say that these DAs are too liberal. You know, that's why people love Dan Lurie and your beloved San Francisco. You know, Mom Donnie, who is one of the smarter politicians that we have, certainly, you know, it's very clear why he is making sure that he stands shoulder to shoulder with Jessica Tish at every opportunity.

43:04Jessica Tarlov:Right. To say, I'm going to give you universal child care, pre-K, parents take a I mean, you guys, moms with young kids, that gift of four hours of free babysitting. Mm-hmm. Just life-changing stuff.

43:19Kara Swisher:We avail ourselves to it right now, even at this moment. But one of the things that you noted before is this trans issue. A video montage of the convention highlighted Trump's efforts to ban transgender athletes from women's wars. Roughly 1 % of Americans are trans and very few in sports. But they remain the target of Fox News and the GOP more broadly. I want to play a clip of the conversation you just had with the Bulwark's Sarah Longwell discussing the issue. This is an enormously common response that I get in focus groups of Trump voters, actually, where they're like, they're mad about the war in Iran because they know gas prices are high.

43:52Kara Swisher:They know prices are high in general. So they're upset maybe about tariffs. But some of the people, you know what? He's got trans people out of sports. And so it's OK. What is the best way to respond to these attacks on trans rights and win elections using your techniques, your patented techniques?

44:10Jessica Tarlov:I mean, honestly, I don't want to cede my time to Andy Beshear, but having Andy Beshear answer this is the best way forward. He runs a ruby red state and people love him because of how he can talk about reality and compassion and making sure that nothing that goes on vis-a-vis the trans community turns into an erosion of civil rights. And that's where I think that you have to be here. I think that you have to call out the common sense position. This is an 80-20 issue that too many Democrats, I think, beholden to special interest groups or some, you know, fringe position were afraid to say, yes, I know that there is a biological advantage, but over my dead body, will I let this turn into an erosion of civil rights, especially for kids that just want to play soccer with their friends?

45:02Jessica Tarlov:and drawing that line between what is competitive and when there is money on the line and just kids being kids, I think, is where you have to go from this. But it does start with a recognition of the fact that, yes, there may only be 10 NCAA athletes. And one of the, I'd say, more seminal experiences that I had vis-a-vis this issue is I moderated a conversation at the 92nd Street Y about trans athletes. And there was a for and against. And the against is a Duke law professor. And for was a woman who is also an academic. She transitioned later in life, both competitive runners. And the trans woman acknowledges the biological advantage.

45:46Jessica Tarlov:She just doesn't think that it should affect what she calls meaningful competition. So she has shifted it from our traditional understanding of competition to say, does this meaningfully make a difference when you think of the trickle down, right, that there are anti-trans bills in dozens of states as a result in the Supreme Court cases. And that, to me, feels like the more honest way to have this conversation. And, you know, she's saying, take it from me, someone who lived into adulthood as a man, that these differences persist, right, in bone density and, you know, speed advantage.

46:25Kara Swisher:You know who actually makes a great argument? Yuval Harari in Sapiens. He said there's male and female, but then there's woman and man, and those are different things. A man can be a woman, you know, but there are male and female. It was interesting. But the fact that it became a story, you know, it started with bathrooms, and that didn't work.

46:43Jessica Tarlov:And North Carolina said, well, actually, we don't give a fuck.

46:45Kara Swisher:Yeah, it didn't work in bathrooms, but it did work in sports, which is interesting. And it's sort of.

46:50Jessica Tarlov:Don't you think that it actually it worked in sports and by extension in this idea about undocumented trans people in prisons because of a box that Kamala Harris checked, but that it was more an economic argument. Everything is about fairness. Yeah. And feeling that the game is rigged against you. And the they them ad was about the economy more than it was about trans people.

47:14Kara Swisher:That's an interesting.

47:15Jessica Tarlov:So I think that if you frame everything like John Ossoff is doing, like James Tallarico is doing, Josh Turek, you know, some of our next gen best communicators, they're understanding that the nitty gritty of what happened with Leah Thomas and Riley Gaines doesn't matter as much as you being able to tell people, I want life in America to be fair. And that's everything from how you can do economically to what goes on in your kids' schools. We'll be back in a minute.

47:56Kara Swisher:So like any good millennial, I have a love-hate relationship with Gen Z. It's the phenomenon rattling millennials. They just look at you.

48:06Jessica Tarlov:They want something bigger themselves. Lifestyle is a priority. Motivation is being inspired.

48:11Kara Swisher:But regardless of how you feel about Gen Z, it's undeniable that they're changing national politics.

48:18Jessica Tarlov:Generation Z is increasingly showing less loyalty to traditional political parties, many now more likely to identify as independent.

48:26Kara Swisher:So what is going on with the kids?

48:28Jessica Tarlov:I think the biggest misconception about Gen Z's politics right now is that all of a sudden they're all socialists. That is just not the case. They are embracing candidates who are offering new, bold ideas in the absence of those ideas from establishment Democrats.

48:41Kara Swisher:This week on America Actually, Gen Z researcher Rachel Jamfaza joins us to separate Gen Z fact versus fiction.

48:49Jessica Tarlov:It's not rocket science. And this is, you know, I keep saying like young voters aren't that complicated after all. It's pretty simple.

48:54Kara Swisher:Catch us every Saturday on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. Have you ever wondered who invented rock and roll or why Fleetwood Mac fell apart or what it was like at Motown in the early years? Well, do I have a podcast for you? My name is Will Anderson. I'm a songwriter, a musician, and a huge music history buff. And I'm so excited to announce my new podcast, The Monday Music Club. I teamed up to make this podcast with the Vox Media Podcast Network because ever since I was a kid, I loved hearing and reading stories about classic artists, recording sessions, and music history. And I wanted to have a place to be able to take what I've learned and share some of those favorites with you.

49:31Kara Swisher:Every Monday, I'll be releasing a new episode and deep diving into a new story with experts and special guests. And it's going to be a blast. So if you're a music history geek like me or even just a casual music fan, jump in because I promise the Monday Music Club is going to be the podcast for you. Hi, it's Kara. Like most people, I have a few favorite songs and artists, but I don't always know a lot about their history. Often we've never learned about how they originate or how they influence the way life is today. That's exactly why I'm excited to introduce a fresh podcast from the Vox Media Podcast Network called Monday Music Club led by host Will Anderson.

50:08Kara Swisher:Each episode delves into the pivotal moments that have molded our musical world, tracing the tales behind unforgettable songs and the artists and creative minds who've reshaped culture along the way. Will brings real, lived-in expertise to the table. As a former frontman of the alt-pop band Parachute, he's earned platinum and gold records and played to sell-out crowds worldwide. That background, combined with his natural curiosity about music's history, turns every episode into an eye-opening journey. So whether you're a music history buff, love geeking out over songwriter, or simply want a new way to enjoy the songs you already love, Monday Music Club is where the journey starts.

50:45Kara Swisher:New episodes release every Monday. Watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.

50:56Kara Swisher:You describe horse race polling as a hamster wheel and say that, quote, nothing about polling is inevitable. Polls are getting beaten up by a lot of people. What should you be paying attention to? Is it these prediction markets? Where should people go? Because they do still rely on these things or sort of want to know what's happening.

51:12Jessica Tarlov:I thought that the prediction markets are going to be influential and around a lot longer than I now think they will be. You know, the whole narrative around Francesca Hong, the Wisconsin candidate for governor, and what happened even in the primary in Michigan with Haley Stevens and Abdul Al-Sayed. You know, people started to take prediction markets as polling. Right. And they said, oh, there's a 99 percent chance that this outcome is going to happen, which isn't at all what the polls were saying. And then there's also the question of the methodology of these polls and understanding, like, who has an A rating and a B down to who has an F rating.

51:52Jessica Tarlov:And I think that can be really dangerous. And as someone who worked in polling and likes to pay attention to methodologies and the rating systems, my hope for people and what I argue and I disagree is that you spend time looking at trend lines versus what can be often an outlier result. And so if a flare goes up and you say, oh, that's kind of interesting, right, that we found this. And that's how it gets onto shows like onto Pivot, right, where there's this crazy kind of counterculture finding. Like is this start of something new? And then to stick with it. And that's why the daily jockeying over the horse race isn't that useful.

52:35Jessica Tarlov:And people who actually run campaigns, like if you listen to a panel with everyone, you know, from a Dan Pfeiffer to a Tony Fabrizio, they would say, like, in the last few days, you just got to get out there, right? Like, you got to knock on doors and push people to vote. So my point was to help people see polling for what it is, which is a snapshot of a moment in time, and then to think of it as a broader trend line or a relationship to other data points where you can then build a fuller picture of what's going on. But, you know, I know that there are people who see what I do on The Five and my co-hosts will make fun of me about it.

53:16Jessica Tarlov:Like, oh, Jessica, have you got a poll for that? And yes, I always have a poll for that. But I want to make sure that it's part of a broader story on what's going on.

53:26Kara Swisher:Right, right. But is there one that you find worth reading? I mean, when they say the poll for that, they're essentially saying, oh, stop messing with us with facts. We hate facts.

53:34Jessica Tarlov:Yes. But then it's fun to push back on that. Like, oh, I'm sorry you don't like that. Like Greg and I have been having this back and forth lately where he just says, I don't know who that is when I bring someone up. And I'm like, well, it's on you actually to figure out who this person is that's in elected office or running for a big position. But there are also different ways of doing politics. And that's part of what I argue and I disagree and my experience, which is there are a lot of people who want to get their politics in a PhD bow box, which is how I do it. Right where I say, like, you know, I've scanned all the right material and these are the main points that I've picked out.

54:12Jessica Tarlov:And then other people want to hear from folks that they like. Right. Or who see the world in a way that's similar to theirs. And we can sit here and bitch about it and say, like, I don't like that this is the reality of how some people are getting their news or how they see the world. But that's life. And this is the way the game is played right now.

54:34Kara Swisher:Yeah. Or else you figure out a better way to do it. Speaking of which, Democrats are going on Fox. You know, they've sort of taken everything in addition to regulars like Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom. We're now seeing people like Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. He didn't really spar with Jesse Waters. I think Jesse Waters fell deeply in love with him. It was very interesting.

54:52Jessica Tarlov:It was a very cute 25 minutes.

54:53Kara Swisher:It was really interesting. He's so easy. That's what I thought. What a pushover he is for like a swole man who's very charming. Puck noted the episode performed very well. Total audience was up 15 percent over the quarterly average. So obviously it's good for Fox to start to embrace Democrats in a weird way because they're getting it wasn't as much a fight as a love fest. It seemed to me. Do Democrats get something out of it? Definitely.

55:19Jessica Tarlov:What to explain? I mean, I think that there are two schools of thought. So there's one set of reasons to go on Fox, which is or in conservative media. This could happen anywhere, right, that you go on a podcast and, you know, get a clip of you explaining something to Joe Rogan. I guess I'm should we call him conservative now? You know, I don't really know. He's whatever Rogan is. But so you can get a clip that can go viral and you can fundraise off of it. And that works. You know, there is a reason that Pete Buttigieg, when he introduced himself at the DNC in 2024, he said something like, you know, hi, I'm Pete.

55:57Jessica Tarlov:You might recognize me from Fox News.

55:59Kara Swisher:Right, right. Right. It's funny. Yeah.

56:01Jessica Tarlov:Yeah. But it's obviously become an enormous part of his identity that way. And so I think there's a case for that if that's what you want to do. And Abdul got that out of his interaction with Jesse. But then there's a second reason to do it, which, you know, I'm not running for any elected office. So I'm in a different category. But I think what I do is more in this. And you see it with some of the electeds, like Jason Crow comes on a lot, for instance, the Democratic congressman from Colorado. And his reason for coming on is to not only be able to get a clip, right, or, you know, some good distillation of a counterpoint that he's making to a Republican orthodoxy, but also to have a real conversation with somebody that sees the world differently and matters a lot to people who show up and vote and are potentially persuadable.

57:01Kara Swisher:I think you're right. I think it does work better going the Fox direction than it is, say, people on CNN who are villainous like Scott Jennings. I think it only solidifies Democrats. I don't think he brings people to his side, which I think you do, actually.

57:17Jessica Tarlov:No, I think what Scott does is very much for the converted already. Like, my colleagues love Scott and think what he does is amazing because he, like, walks in and throws these bombs up.

57:29Kara Swisher:But I don't think it persuades the audience, which I think you do, actually. I think you might actually persuade some of the audience. You know, I'm thinking of my mom. She said the other day, oh, Jess Harloff made a good point. And I was like, oh, she did, didn't she? Yeah.

57:42Jessica Tarlov:Your mom was just impressed that I could get, like, down on the ground eight months pregnant when I first met her. to talk to her.

57:48Kara Swisher:That's true. But you just signed a new three-year contract with Fox and you play an important role in the five-year husband described you as the wrestling heel in the villain, but I don't think that's the case. I did not love that. The rest of his interview

57:59Jessica Tarlov:was very cute.

58:00Kara Swisher:Yeah, I know. But you have talked about many of the hateful comments or issues, including death threats, particularly after you personally attacked on social media by President Trump, which is often, like, it's really odd. I guess he likes to talk. Well, he loves the show and I'm ruining it for him. Right, exactly. Do you have reservations about it? Is that representative of most of the feedback you get from viewers? Often the noisy, hateful people tend to be noisy and hateful and very small. How do you deal with that?

58:25Jessica Tarlov:So in the real world, the Fox viewers, and you have experience with them, are the nicest people. And they might say something like, you know, I don't like your politics, young lady, but your kids are just adorable Because we used to show pictures of our kids. Now nobody does that anymore because of how fucked up the world is. Or a lot of, which was part of the impetus for writing this book, like, I don't know how you do it with Jesse. Right? He's got to stop. Like, his New Year's resolution the last four years has been to interrupt me less. He has failed across the board. So out in the real world, it's very warm.

59:06Jessica Tarlov:And I think especially being on this particular show that is such a continued part of people's lives, like the appointment TV on a daily basis, I think really helps with that. I would say also the fact that Harold Ford Jr. does it half the week makes a difference. If it was me every day, perhaps it would be too much for some people. But I'm their crazy Aunt Jessica, and it just works. I've had some apologies in real life. I write about that in the book. A woman who came up to me and said, you know, I don't know if you saw my tweets. And I said, you know, my Twitter is a cesspool. If you called me the C word, I didn't notice it was just a Tuesday.

59:50Jessica Tarlov:But anyway, she wanted to apologize for doing that. And that was very meaningful to me. So being part of their world feels like a really big privilege to me. And I don't think that many people in our space have that, where I'm part of the liberal ecosystem, especially having raging moderates now.

1:00:11Kara Swisher:Yeah, I'm going to get to that. But in your book, you know, again, I want to get back. So we started talking about this. You advocate for finding a new middle that promotes understanding of shared struggles and commonalities. At the same time, you do work for a network and alongside co-hosts who've done a lot to polarize Americans. I think if I had to stack rank problems, I would say gerrymandering social media and Fox News, including the spreading of 2020 election conspiracy lies. Talk about reconciling your, quote, Fox family, as you call them, with the ideas and policies they have. Does it ever get under your skin?

1:00:43Kara Swisher:I don't think I could take it, honestly. Sure.

1:00:47Jessica Tarlov:It gets under my skin. I'm openly frustrated and flummoxed on the show with some degree of regularity. I was talking about how there was no evidence of election fraud just on the last on Friday. And Jesse brought up some ballot stuffer named Wanda. You know, I have no idea what he's talking about. And I do try to understand some of these theories. Like around Hunter Biden, there was a whole web of characters and diamonds and Mexican billionaires and Bulgarian something. And I tried to figure it out a little bit. But eventually I just and this is when Janine was still on the show. I just said, like, I can't follow all of this crap.

1:01:33Jessica Tarlov:Right. whatever web you've created to somehow justify the idea that what Hunter Biden is doing is the worst thing that's ever happened in America. You know, I just can't get there. But I do think that it is important to show up and to be a backstop against things that could take deeper hold if If it wasn't pushback, if there wasn't pushback, but it's not just any pushback. There is, I think, a way to do it that doesn't make people's sensors go off in in such a way that they can't hear anything that you're saying. And that doesn't mean day one, day two, day three, day four, but maybe day 50, maybe day 100.

1:02:24Jessica Tarlov:I mean, Sarah Longwell, you know, in her new book, and you just did an event with her about this. She talks about this all the time with her focus groups, right? How long it sometimes takes for it to permeate with people that reality wasn't as they were told.

1:02:40Kara Swisher:It was sort of like that SNL skit that maybe he might be lying, this SNL skit. Maybe, right.

1:02:46Jessica Tarlov:And whatever is comfortable for you vis-a-vis that. I'm not here to be the feelings police or, frankly, the words police. because we tried that and everybody said that we were sticks in the mud and didn't want to vote for us.

1:03:00Kara Swisher:Do you notice a vibe shift at Fox, though? Will it be different, you know, going forward, especially if Trump takes a big splat that looks like it's coming? Like if he loses the election. And yeah, I'm they kind of want to go that way every now.

1:03:15Jessica Tarlov:You can honestly it's better to be on offense than playing defense is hard. I mean, especially the last two years of the Biden administration.

1:03:22Kara Swisher:Yeah. Murdoch's not comfortable with it. He slaps at him quite a bit. He tries.

1:03:27Jessica Tarlov:I don't I mean, a lot of this is way above my pay grade, but it is easier when you can just sit there and criticize and criticize and criticize. And I think that people know what the courts said about all of this fraud. There were 66 cases and they won none of them. And so I imagine that's how we're going to be talking about elections. And I think it's a testament to, you know, like Brett Baier has to basically every day tweet out in response to someone who brings this bullshit about the Arizona call that it was absolutely correct. And this was the timing of it versus other networks, et cetera.

1:04:12Jessica Tarlov:You know, and we'll continue climbing that hill with people who don't believe that 2020 was real. But I think that the combination of people doing so poorly economically and Trump not delivering on any of these promises, plus what will hopefully be a big electoral win should be enough even for the most ardent Trump supporters. And you see this, whatever their issue is, if it's the economy, but with the Epstein files, it's a lot of people who you never would have thought would turn on him.

1:04:47Kara Swisher:Oh, I knew that.

1:04:49Jessica Tarlov:I've been paying attention a lot to those groups that talk about it.

1:04:53Kara Swisher:And it was their, I always called it the bearing wall of their movement. Let's finish up talking about two things. Raging Moderates, which you co-host with Scott Galloway. I always call you his side piece. Sorry for doing that, but that's okay. It's fine. You can handle it. You can handle it, Jess. But he's your side piece. How about that? So is it different than being on a television show? I mean, obviously you and I have different experiences with Scott, but probably similar in lots of ways.

1:05:16Jessica Tarlov:Yeah, I mean, to have the opportunity for a long-form answer is awesome. And, you know, Scott is just a hugely interesting person to get to talk to. It's different kinds of expertises, right, that you bring to it. So, you know, his background is obviously not in politics. So we're on bits of different kinds of journeys together, I guess, that way. And I think that, you know, the space is very saturated, obviously, but it has been really affirming of what we're doing, that the idea of a raging moderate, which is essentially a fiery populist that knows that you also have to persuade people to be able to win your election, like an Alyssa Slotkin or a John Ossoff, has been great.

1:06:12Jessica Tarlov:And I know it's not very fashionable right now to even talk about anything vis-a-vis moderation. And all the polls say this and the focus groups. But having the raging in there at the beginning seems to let us sneak through. And I'm just having a really good time. And, you know, my job at Fox is not interviewing people or having guests. It's a set show. Right. So you get to do that, to talk to people. Yeah. Is Scott behaving? Do you need any help?

1:06:38Kara Swisher:No, I don't.

1:06:39Jessica Tarlov:You guys, your vibe is very different than our vibe.

1:06:42Kara Swisher:Yeah, yeah, I would say so.

1:06:43Jessica Tarlov:I mean, you've been together so long. I'm new.

1:06:45Kara Swisher:Yeah, you're new. Yeah.

1:06:47Jessica Tarlov:New and sparkly some days, but sometimes just not his cara.

1:06:51Kara Swisher:He hates it. He hates the idea that he has to keep coming back to me. No. Oh, he does. It's okay. I don't care.

1:06:57Jessica Tarlov:Oh, look how happy he was. I know he was. Shirtless and beaming when he saw you again.

1:07:01Kara Swisher:I know, I know. It's true. What can I say? I don't mind. I'm very flex. I'm very bendy, Jess. Yeah, that's what I think of when I think of you. So flexible, that Kara Swisher. Bendy is different than flexible. I will smack you to last Sunday if I need to. Not you, but people. So you recently talked about the rise of independent media and observed that literally everyone is a content creator. Do you think that's a good thing? I think it is. I think there's a lot of really excellent products out there. And it creates a different kind of vibe. How do you look at it comparatively, especially to Fox?

1:07:32Kara Swisher:And Fox is the most popular of the cable shows, but it's like being the most popular of, you know, stagecoaches eventually. But these are growing. These are fast growing.

1:07:43Jessica Tarlov:They're definitely fast growing. They're huge platforms. I, you know, Fox is like for the five, you got up to four million viewers. Yeah. Nothing to, you know. But I love being in both spaces because I think it also affirms that what I'm saying on Fox is independent curation, that I'm not getting, you know, DNC talking points. And, I mean, you know how it is. People get pissed off with the stuff that you say on air, no matter where you do it, you know, where they say, like, oh, you misunderstood this or why are you criticizing the party? And you can just say this is what I feel. And it's also reflective of what millions of Americans are feeling.

1:08:28Jessica Tarlov:And if you don't want to deal with that, you're going to lose elections, which I imagine isn't high on your list of things to do. So I like having a foot in both spots, frankly. And do I think it's a good thing that everybody is a creator? Probably net-net yes. But in that interview, something that I was talking about that I think is important is that there is concern when you talk to people out in the wild about all of the biases that people have that maybe weren't reported over the course of, you know, decades that they were working in traditional TV, right, as a reporter or a journalist. And that's not—you've always had a point of view, a political point of view, and not shied away from that, but a lot of people didn't have jobs like that.

1:09:18Jessica Tarlov:I agree. And it has complicated how people see these folks and whether they trust them to be agenda-free. You hear that a lot. And it's not like I'm satisfying that for people. People know that I have a left word bent to the way that I look at our politics. But you know how hungry people are for facts and reality, right, for a boring reported something, right, that just says this is literally what happened versus this is my spin on it. And when you do have a proliferation of the creator economy at this level, people don't necessarily get that. And there's, you know, PBS can't do it for everybody.

1:09:59Kara Swisher:Right. That's fair. So let's finish returning to your expertise as a researcher and a pollster and a get-a-longer, I guess. What do you think people aren't paying attention to around the midterms or looking ahead to 2028? And not who should be on the Democratic ticket in 2028, but what should they look like? Using your principles from your book, what should that look like?

1:10:21Jessica Tarlov:So I have shifted away from, I used to be more afraid of running a woman. You know, I was in that camp of like more Hillary than Kamala for me because I think Hillary was just a next level candidate. And the way that Kamala came to the candidacy is obviously, you know, not the traditional route.

1:10:41Kara Swisher:No, she didn't get thrown through the paces essentially.

1:10:45Jessica Tarlov:Right. And she did try to go through the paces in 2020 and it didn't work out. But I have moved much more into a world where I'm concerned less with what people look like than what they sound like. And so if the message is right and resonant, I'm not as afraid of it anymore. I mean, it's kind of a joke, but is there a world in which you have like an Andy Beshear AOC ticket, right, to satisfy people on different sides of the spectrum? It won't actually be that, but I'm not as closed off to the idea anymore. I used to be much more.

1:11:25Kara Swisher:But what's critical based on what you've written here? Is it conciliatory? Because a lot of people, as you know, are loaded for bear, right?

1:11:32Jessica Tarlov:Yeah, but there is a conciliatory attitude, I think, even in the way AOC does politics. You look at who she's friends with, you look at the way that she is in interviews. She's not talking down to anybody. I mean, if you're a billionaire, you're in the crosshairs. Right.

1:11:47Kara Swisher:But in general, you should be. Yeah.

1:11:50Jessica Tarlov:But I don't think that she has a disregard or a disdain for a working class, like a rural white person who traditionally voted for Donald Trump. Are they going to be her favorite person? I'm not sure about that. But she doesn't reek of that elitism stink that we've had for a long time. And, you know, background as a bartender and all those kinds of things. So I think it has a lot to do with, you know, the way that you're communicating. Like, John Ossoff is obviously a great example of this. I'm curious to see how he does in interviews and kind of longer form conversations after the midterms. Knock on wood that he wins by a big chunk, which is what it looks like at this point.

1:12:34Jessica Tarlov:But I'm very open to a bunch of different packages if the messaging is right.

1:12:39Kara Swisher:Is there such a thing as a feisty conciliatory person?

1:12:42Jessica Tarlov:Yeah, Ruben Gallego. You know, he's somebody who actually has a lot of pretty left-leaning positions. One, Arizona, was able to do that in a year that Trump obviously did well. But he is talking about what Latino people actually want and how they think about wealth and was saying it's not about begrudging anyone else's success. Like they just want a big fucking truck themselves. Right. And that I think understanding that which Trump has always understood, which is how he gets away with so much of this. Perhaps he's hit his wall was my most fervent hope. I think makes the way Gallego see the world as, you know, something very appealing for that debate stage at the very least if he decides to go that way.

1:13:30Kara Swisher:So very last question, which should be the Democratic and Republican bumper sticker based on what you've written here? something around delivering, you know, something with an action. Because there are people are too

1:13:45Jessica Tarlov:cynical right now, I think, to get swept up in a hope and change again. And yes, we can didn't work, right? So we'll put that aside. But people want results. They're over the idea that they're going to fall in love with their electeds and want to be part of this big movement. I mean, Momdani had it to some degree, but he won just over 50 % of the vote. So he's done a lot of good work since he came into office. But something around deliverables, which is not particularly sexy. I'm going to have to workshop it. Yeah, you need to work out. Deliverables. Deliverable. I don't know. How would you judge it?

1:14:20Jessica Tarlov:Scott would help us.

1:14:21Kara Swisher:Yeah. Delivering for you. For you. This one's for you. Yeah. This one's for you.

1:14:28Jessica Tarlov:Yeah.

1:14:29Kara Swisher:This one's for you, Kara. This one's for you. Vote for me. And then give everyone a glass of whiskey. Anyway, Jess, you need a glass of whiskey after those shows. I honestly don't know how to do it. I really don't. I would smack Jesse Waters back to last Sunday every single week, which I'm sure he would like. I think you guys would have a good time. Okay, sure. Why not? Tell him anytime he wants to come on, he's welcome. I doubt he has the set for it, but that's okay. I'll let him know this afternoon. Jess, it's a great book. I disagree. Thank you for coming on finally. I'm so thrilled to have you.

1:15:02Kara Swisher:Thank you for having me.

1:15:08Kara Swisher:Today's show was produced by Nishat Kerwa, Michelle Alloy, Catherine Millsop, Megan Burney, and Madeline LaPlante-Duby. Special thanks to Lisa Soap, Rosemary Ho, Bradley Sylvester, Jim Mackle, and Manolo Moreno. Our engineers are Fernando Arruda and Rick Kwan, and our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're already following the show, we're sending you a$5 ,000 On with Kara Swisher dividend. We're not sending you any money. If not, you get nothing, which is what everybody gets. Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from Podium Media, New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network, and us.

1:15:47Kara Swisher:We'll be back on Monday with more.