Matt Belloni on WarnerMount, Disney Succession, Oscars & More

8:25Matt Belloni:I think it's both. I think for many of these legacy companies, this is a Titanic-esque moment because they are so tethered to a model that is disappearing. The linear television model, the cable television, the expensive model.

8:41Kara Swisher:Yeah.

8:41Matt Belloni:The people will pay for content they don't actually consume model, that is going away. And it's been going away off and on now for 15 years, but it's really reached mission critical where these companies are being dragged down and forced to consolidate because they are tied to a model that isn't working.

9:01Kara Swisher:Which they knew about.

9:02Matt Belloni:Because the model was so lucrative and the margins were so high, none of the executives were willing to blow up their own model to compete for the next generation of subscribers. And it shows. They got their lunch eaten by the tech companies. And now what we've seen over the past five to seven years is this gradual, gradual, and then all at once take over by the disruptors.

9:28Kara Swisher:So let's then start talking about that, talking about Warner Mount or Para... I prefer Warner Mount. There's Para Bros, but I don't like that. That sounds... Para Bros works better. You like Parabros? I'll go with one amount for you. You've been predicting the Ellicens as a winner since you and I have gone back and forth the auction, even after Netflix closed on the$83 billion deal for the studio and streamer back in December. Talk a little bit about it. I thought it would take a lot longer. I thought they wasted enormous amounts of time by not just upping the bid, getting in there, and winning it with the money.

9:58Kara Swisher:Because I'm fully aware that the biggest price wins, period, in all these deals.

10:03Matt Belloni:Yeah, I think the Ellicens were a little arrogant at the beginning. and they thought that they could come in and swipe this asset for not very much money. They did not anticipate Netflix being interested or coming in as aggressively as they did. And listen, you know, Larry, I know David. That's the reason from the very beginning, I said, these guys are not going away. This is something that David has said to his father. I want to do this for 40 years. This is going to be my life, just like the tech industry was your life. So please let me do this and let's do this together. And when you have that kind of buy-in from someone who is so wealthy, they just were never, Larry, they were never going to go away.

10:45Matt Belloni:They were going to push and push and push.

10:47Kara Swisher:The only thing I thought was Larry's, look, I know David to have interviewed him. Larry is brilliant. I wouldn't say the same about David. You can push against me, but Larry is brilliant in the area he was brilliant in. And I thought he just can't even think this is a good deal. Like he's just he's been so incredibly savvy about paying the right price for things and never overpaying and cutting and, you know, just one of these sort of rapacious tech executives from the earlier days before the Internet. And he was able to switch and shift really drastically. So I was surprised it felt a little indulgent on for him.

11:20Kara Swisher:And I suppose what's the reason?

11:22Matt Belloni:Listen, he has one adult son and his one adult son has devoted his life to this. and he's 80, what, 81 years old, 82?

11:31Kara Swisher:Yeah. He's going to live forever.

11:33Matt Belloni:But if he doesn't, this money's going to David anyways.

11:38Kara Swisher:Right.

11:38Matt Belloni:And his sister, Megan, and others. But I think that once David said, I want to do this, it was a matter of figuring out the contours of the deal. And keep in mind that this is not all Larry's money. They're bringing in the Saudis. They're bringing in the Qataris.

11:56Kara Swisher:They're bringing the Chinese now.

11:57Matt Belloni:Yeah, they're leveraging this company with almost$80 billion of debt. And he's saying to David, essentially, you need to make this work. But the whole deal happened because Larry finally agreed to backstop it. I mean, that was one of the big defections.

12:13Kara Swisher:He was slow, too. He was slow, too. And I think it's because his nature is like, are you fucking kidding me? Like, I can hear him thinking that. I've spent a lot of time with him. And it wasn't smart, but he wanted to indulge his son. It felt like that to me.

12:24Matt Belloni:And he thought he didn't have to. He thought they could get away with it. And the Warner board looking at this said, wait a second, we have Netflix who's going crazy with profits and EBITDA every year. Why wouldn't we go with the safe buyer over this if you're not even going to backstop it?

12:40Kara Swisher:Right, exactly. So regardless who bought it, you noted there is no good outcome for Hollywood. Either way, we're likely to see massive layoffs. This is something I said. I'm like, this is not, they have not due$6 billion. It's more like$16 billion.

12:51Matt Belloni:Well, that's what Ted Sarandos says at Netflix. Yeah, he is correct.

12:54Kara Swisher:I mean, it's somewhere between six and 16, but it's definitely not six. And it could be even more. You know, talk about what's at stakes here, not only for the executives involved, but for the people who actually create films and television. I'm like, this is look. I keep saying look out below if they get it. Stop attacking Netflix quite so much because it would have been a very different party.

13:15Matt Belloni:Yeah, at least that's what Netflix said when they were bidding. I think you're right, though. I think that the coming together of two legacy studios with everything that they are carrying right now from all, you know, everything from creative executives down to the janitorial staff, all of that will be merged.

13:34Kara Swisher:It's 47 ,000 people, I believe. 17 from Paramount, 30 ,000 from Warner.

13:39Matt Belloni:Yeah, I've seen 35 at Warner, but I'm sure that's somewhere in that ballpark. It's a lot. And even if you take out 20 to 30 percent of those employees, that is tens of thousands of people.

13:51Kara Swisher:Right.

13:51Matt Belloni:These are middle class jobs. These are creative class jobs. This is devastating for these people, for the companies, for the city of L.A., where most of these people work, for the city of New York, where CNN is, in Atlanta, where CNN also has a big presence. So from a macro perspective, it is just a shrinking of the traditional entertainment business.

14:12Kara Swisher:Right. And so they say they can deleverage it fast. Nobody believes them because none of these. I have one of my I wrote a whole book on the AOL Time Warner merger. They were not able to do and realize these gains. And I remember when they got Paramount and they had their first press conference. I don't know if you were there. And they kept saying and David in particular was like, use AI and do things. And I'm like, OK, specifically.

14:32Matt Belloni:They have this like magic oracle dust that they're going to sprinkle over the whole company. Which is crap.

14:36Kara Swisher:I'm sorry. And I was like, okay, but specifically. And they're like, AI. And I was like, specifically? Like, can you give me one fucking specific? And they never could. And I just think, I was like, well, isn't your dad in tech?

14:49Matt Belloni:They keep leaning on the fact that they hired a product guy from Meta.

14:52Kara Swisher:Oh, that always works.

14:54Matt Belloni:And they say, Jerry Cardinal, who's the Redbird dealmaker.

14:57Kara Swisher:I heard him.

14:58Matt Belloni:He was on the town and he said that they are going to be the first time that a studio and a Silicon Valley powerhouse are coming together. Stop it. And I said, really? I think Netflix would like a word about that. But whatever.

15:09Kara Swisher:There were lots of efforts in this area, by the way.

15:12Matt Belloni:But you know what? Let's just say they can't. Let's say that they can use a little bit of Larry's prowess in this area and create a best-in-class platform, create a recommendation engine that is way better than what they currently have, can eliminate duplicative jobs. that's still...

15:28Kara Swisher:It's table stakes. That's already where Netflix was. Yeah.

15:32Matt Belloni:Yeah. Because remember what happened when Warner Brothers and Discovery came together. David Zasloff made very similar predictions about how they were going to be able to achieve synergies and the content is going to take us to the moon on subscribers.

15:46Kara Swisher:AOL time Warner. It's been going on forever. I know.

15:49Matt Belloni:But from the very beginning of Warner Brothers Discovery, the prediction they made on the revenue and profit did not come to roost because like we said, the linear TV business is cratering faster. Now, Ellison says that they're very aware of that now and they know what the decay rate is in television. They've modeled that in conservatively. Maybe that's the case, but maybe it's worse than they think. And they're going to have to cut even more. And what does that do when you're saying that they're going to release 30 movies a year in theaters and they're going to increase the investment for their streaming properties.

16:26Matt Belloni:That all costs a lot of money while at the same time taking out six to$16 billion from the company.

16:32Kara Swisher:I'm more interested in what are they going to make that's going to make that money? Like cutting costs is one thing. But when Zasloff came in, he's like, we're going to make this, this and this. I'm like, really? I don't believe you. Like you can't cut your way to growth. And I was like, what again, specifically are you going to make that suddenly going to, what are you going to do? Bitcoin? Oh, that might not work. Like, what's your plan? And I don't hear fresh ideas. I hear a lot of old retread ideas that I heard when I wrote my old-time Warner book. I don't hear a lot of, like, how can you save money?

17:00Kara Swisher:I just, I don't get it. It doesn't make sense. But so after David Ellison struck the deal to buy Warner Brothers Discovery with his father's money, Zasloff called the process thrilling and exciting. He's laughing, of course, all the way to the bank. And Kim Masters had a great piece in your column today that I thought was terrific. And it's something I knew about, but not everyone did, showing how the resume is pretty thin because David leading this. Talk a little bit about the relation between Zasloff and David Ellison, the two personalities behind what will be truly massive layups. I guess Zasloff will ride off in the sunset with his pile of cash.

17:34Matt Belloni:Yeah, he is set to make$800 million off of this deal.

17:38Kara Swisher:Yeah, it's like, remember the star belly snitch? The snitches, the guy who came, he's that guy.

17:43Matt Belloni:Yeah, I mean, it is a grotesque.

17:45Kara Swisher:Monkey McBean or something.

17:46Matt Belloni:It is a grotesque amount of money for someone who is not a founder. He is a media manager that came to this company, saw that Discovery Communications was floundering in the linear TV era. He bolted his company onto HBO and Warner Brothers under the theory that if they could create a streaming powerhouse, it might take them to the promised land. It didn't work.

18:09Kara Swisher:I had drinks with him. Heard that one.

18:10Matt Belloni:Well, listen, more power to him because he created this scenario where all of a sudden the fourth richest man in the world, son, wanted to buy the company, lucked out like nobody's business, and now he's going to reap the rewards. So the shareholders are the big winners here. They are.

18:27Kara Swisher:They are because it was at$7 ,000 and then it sold at$31 ,000, which was incredible. And I was like, was there$22 or whatever the$24 of value in there? Like there wasn't. like nothing got created. In fact, things got cut.

18:42Matt Belloni:Yeah. It's just the perception when Netflix wanted this and the Ellisons wanted it, the bidding was off. The Ellisons were only prepared to pay$19 a share when they made their first bid. And that was for all the companies. So it's just, it's a very fortuitous situation for Zaslav. But now he's in this position where they had a town hall on the lot today in Burbank, where they're talking about integrating these companies and kind of dancing around the layoff issue. And they have to figure out what they're going to do with each of these assets. Like Ellison is saying HBO should stay HBO, be the premium brand.

19:20Matt Belloni:But he doesn't address the fact that HBO has actually broadened out pretty significantly over the past three years to try to be something other than just HBO. The HBO Max brand, they're doing things like The Pit, which was not perceived as like a traditional HBO show.

19:37Kara Swisher:Or buying heated rivalry, yeah.

19:39Matt Belloni:Yeah, but that's a little bit less at least racy. That was a smart buy. Yeah, it was a smart buy. But that's at least more traditional HBO show. My point is they're doing more broadly commercial shows at HBO. And that is overlapping now with what Paramount is doing. And they have a whole apparatus there designed to increase the amount of content on Paramount+. They're going to merge these two together. but how are they going to merge it?

20:04Kara Swisher:Because they're very different brands. One is a luxury brand. The other is kind of like Yellowstone.

20:09Matt Belloni:I mean, the good part is they're complimentary.

20:11Kara Swisher:Yes, they are.

20:11Matt Belloni:That one is broadcast style, CBS style content. In fact, the CBS shows live on Paramount Plus. And then the other is premium. And do you lean into the HBO brand? Do you lean into the CBS brand? There's going to be some very interesting decisions made there. How does it go together? And then you have two movie studios. I mean, And Paramount has been so weakened as a movie studio over the past two decades because of the mismanagement of the Summoner Redstone people. But they have no franchises. Not no franchises. They have some, but they do not have the treasure trove of superheroes.

20:48Kara Swisher:Which is why they needed Warner, right? It was an existential situation for this company.

20:52Matt Belloni:They have Harry Potter. They have Lord of the Rings. They have Doom. Game of Thrones. Yeah, Game of Thrones. They have all these franchises. And how are they going to integrate these two studios to best take advantage of that?

21:05Kara Swisher:Stackranked the assets for me really quickly. Like the studios are on top, right? Presumably.

21:11Matt Belloni:Yes, but not for the reason you think. They're not on top because of any output that they are doing this year. I mean, Zaslav loves to talk about how Warner Brothers had a great year in 2025 and he's turned around the studio and that's why they were so attractive. But that's not the reason.

21:26Kara Swisher:Hello, Bride of Frankenstein. But go ahead.

21:28Matt Belloni:They are, I know, The Bride. The Bride. That's the thing, he's not talking about The Bride. And in the grand scheme of things, The Bride doesn't matter either. What matters is this is a 100-year-old studio with 100 years of movies and franchises that can be exploited across all platforms. That is where these studios really have value.

21:51Kara Swisher:The IP.

21:51Matt Belloni:And that's what Netflix wanted. They saw that and they're like, oh my God. You know, if you look at Netflix on a random Tuesday night, Half the movies, at least in their top 10, are movies that they have licensed from another studio. That's right. Because they are known properties that perform on all platforms.

22:08Kara Swisher:Right. And it's something people want. And then, so the studios, what goes next?

22:12Matt Belloni:HBO. I mean, HBO is a global brand. It has a track record. It means something. I mean, all of these linear businesses, they're trying to transition over to streaming. HBO has done it. They have a streamer with, you know, I think it's at about 130, 140 million subscribers now. Yeah. And they have successfully grown this to be one of the streamers that matters. So now they're combining it with another streamer that is sort of matters. Yeah, kind of. Yeah. And if they can put those together and create a legitimate Netflix and Disney competitor, maybe the Ellisons will have one of the three, maybe four services that survive this era of turmoil.

23:00Matt Belloni:That is the goal.

23:01Kara Swisher:All right, anything else that's worthwhile? News. Let's talk about the news and the network because there's the broadcast network and then there's the news division. So what's going to happen with CNN? Because that was going to be spun off, which I thought was the smartest situation. Obviously, CBS gets written about a lot. I think it matters much less than people go on and on about.

23:21Matt Belloni:Oh, see, I disagree. I think CBS - Tell me why.

23:23Kara Swisher:CBS Broadcast or CBS News?

23:25Matt Belloni:CBS Broadcast.

23:27Kara Swisher:I'm talking about the news.

23:28Matt Belloni:Oh, yeah, yeah. News doesn't, news, to be honest, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. The CNN carriage fees do matter. Yes. They are still throwing off a lot of profit. They are. And that is one of the few handful of networks that you can't cancel. A cable provider is not going to drop CNN for a number of reasons, but mostly for the five times during the year when people actually care and want to watch CNN. So CBS, though, is a real asset. Like broadcast ratings are still a thing. If you look at the live plus 35 rankings, which is the night it airs plus 35 days, even when you include Netflix, Amazon, and other streaming shows, CBS has a big chunk of the most watched shows still.

24:15Kara Swisher:This is broadcast entertainment evening.

24:18Matt Belloni:This is anything. This is including Stranger Things. CBS will still. Now, the audience is geriatric and getting older, but CBS has football. It has now UFC. It has golf. It has marquee sports products and it has broadcast shows. And as we've seen the audiences abandon cable, they haven't abandoned the broadcast networks as much as some have thought they might.

24:46Kara Swisher:Plus, they can get some on streaming and it also has another life on streaming.

24:50Matt Belloni:Exactly. So so for now, at least CBS is is a very important asset, not in 20 years, but as long as it can carry live sports, it is going to be an important asset.

25:02Kara Swisher:So sports is key there. News is not at all.

25:04Matt Belloni:Not to CBS. I mean, that's why I think many people believe that CBS News and CNN will be combined. Absolutely. And that CNN will likely end up programming the news portion of CBS. And there'll be one news organization across both, which is not dissimilar to what happened at NBC.

25:24Kara Swisher:Right. But then they split it up.

25:26Matt Belloni:where MSNBC and NBC broadcasts were powered by NBC News. Now, there was a lot on MSNBC that didn't work on NBC because it was more advocacy journalism, but they at least had one NBC News. Now, of course, they're split up and they're having to figure that out. But I think what we'll see is one, and I don't know if it'll be branded CBS News or be branded CNN, probably CNN because that's the news brand.

25:52Kara Swisher:Sure, and it's global.

25:53Matt Belloni:And you'll end up seeing CNN programming the evening news on CBS and programming the morning show and all the news breaks and election coverage. All of that will come from CNN. And you'll be able to take the employee count of CNN, which is about 3000 people now, maybe cut that in half and maybe cut in half the CBS news staff and then just do one combined product.

26:19Kara Swisher:Do you think, well, the nightly news doesn't matter anymore.

26:22Matt Belloni:It's not. Well, I don't know. I mean, CBS is third place. But if you look at the ratings, there is still an audience for that evening news.

26:30Kara Swisher:But if you go to 25 to 34, I hate to tell you, Pivot is bigger. Like, I'm sorry. Oh, but they're not going to 25 to 54.

26:38Matt Belloni:That's right. They're going to old. They're going to. They've long since abandoned that. And if you look at the ads on those shows, it's all pharma and heating pads and things like that. And shower and sky rizzy.

26:49Kara Swisher:Sky rizzy. Do you, so, but they're worried about sort of the Trumpy politics that the Ellisons employed to get this deal through.

26:56Matt Belloni:And that's not going away.

26:57Kara Swisher:No, no. Although David, for people who don't know, was quite a Democrat for a while, right?

27:02Matt Belloni:I think he probably still is. Honestly, I just don't, I don't think he is particularly ideological. No, I would agree with you. In my, in my dealings with him, he's not doing this because he has some internal desire to change the world politically. This is not a murder.

27:17Kara Swisher:His father is much more political. Exactly. Especially around Israel, of course.

27:21Matt Belloni:Yes. And David cares very much about Israel as well. He does. But I think that he's just being opportunistic here. He sees that they have a window and he sees that his father has a relationship with Trump and they've got two and a half years to do whatever they want. And there will likely be very little pushback from the Trumps. And I just feel like it's more of a business thing for him. And he does see an opportunity, I think. I mean, if you look at the news landscape, there is one right-leaning news powerhouse in television. And then there are about seven or eight that at least lean a little bit left center or left.

28:03Matt Belloni:And what I think Ellison is trying to do, and I think he's trying to compete more overtly with Fox.

28:09Kara Swisher:Right.

28:10Matt Belloni:And they will continue to do that.

28:11Kara Swisher:I think he's going to get his head handed to him by the Fox. The Fox people are as clever as can be. I can't stand it.

28:17Matt Belloni:They are. And people think Fox is successful because it's conservative. That's not why. No. They have a formula.

28:24Kara Swisher:Yes.

28:24Matt Belloni:They have the vibrant screen, as Roger Ailes called it. They have personalities. They know the audience. They constantly refer to the audience, the audience, the audience. They know their consumer, and they hit it hard all the time.

28:39Kara Swisher:Yeah. I just don't think they know media. I just, media, news. I just don't, I think they're not very good at it. It doesn't get matters that much to them, but you know, if it gets their deal through, that's, I think was the, was the point. We'll be back in a minute.

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32:46Kara Swisher:So every episode, we ask an expert to send our guest a question. Let's hear yours.

32:52Matt Belloni:Hi, I'm Richard Klepler, former chairman and CEO of HBO. Currently, I have a production deal at Apple. My question for Matt is, if you were, let's say, hypothetically

33:01Kara Swisher:offered$150 million from your partnership at Puck and asked to be president of the new

33:09Matt Belloni:Warner Paramount venture, what would be the first two strategic moves that you would make at the

33:17Kara Swisher:company when you came in?

33:21Matt Belloni:Interesting question. Well, if I got$150 million, I'd probably buy David Geffen's yacht first and then go sailing for a few years. But OK, so first I would combine the two streaming services under the HBO Max name. I really hope Paramount doesn't go with the Paramount side of this because that brand doesn't mean anything. That is a streaming brand that has not achieved cultural significance in the world. Now, obviously, HBO is great for people like you and me, but it's also not great for others who may say, oh, that those shows are not for me. But I think that's why you keep the Max name on there.

34:04Matt Belloni:Right. It's just a little signal that this is more than just HBO. And all of those television brands are tiles on HBO Max.

34:14Kara Swisher:Correct. Like what Disney does.

34:17Matt Belloni:And Disney, I think that's worked. I think that the branding is working and it's about to get even bigger because they're going to get rid of Hulu and put it under the Disney plus moniker. So that I think, I think, and they haven't decided whether they're doing that yet. I think they should, they should have it all under HBO max.

34:36Kara Swisher:Okay.

34:36Matt Belloni:So that's one, that's one second. And this is something that they are thinking about through my reporting. I think that they should lean into experiential on the movie lots. they will now have two of the legacy movie lots they're beautiful properties they are one's in hollywood one's in burbank and at least on one of them they should try to reimagine what the studio

35:04Kara Swisher:lot theme park looks like i love that idea it should not be what universal is no roller coasters

35:09Matt Belloni:no no none of that it should be more like what netflix is doing with their netflix houses where it's a rotating thing where you go in there and maybe for six months, it's a Godfather experience based on the Godfather movies. And you can interact with the movies. You can place yourself in the movie. Then maybe there's something, there's a game or something based on, you know, there's something about Mary.

35:35Kara Swisher:Yeah, I went in and sat on the friend's couch and then looked at the Warner, the costume lot. There is a tour, a special tour of Warner that is wonderful, let me just say. and it's really fun.

35:45Matt Belloni:Imagine that super size.

35:46Kara Swisher:I would love that.

35:48Matt Belloni:Imagine if you had experiences and that maybe you could meet somebody or something where you're reimagining it and you turn those lots into working offices, which they currently are. And it would help to alleviate some of the pain of the production going to other locations. Right. Because a lot of those studio lots are not used anymore.

36:11Kara Swisher:No, they're not. That could be really fun. And it could make some money and people would go. I would go.

36:16Matt Belloni:It's how Universal started. They literally started with a tram tour and say, let's bring people in and let them see how we work. And then now this business is a real profit driver.

36:26Kara Swisher:Which one had the flood? Was that Universal or was it Warner? They have a flood.

36:31Matt Belloni:Universal does the flood.

36:32Kara Swisher:That was really fun with the Jaws thing.

36:35Matt Belloni:They have the Jaws shark. Then you go in, they have a Fast and Furious roller coaster about to open.

36:39Kara Swisher:Yeah.

36:40Matt Belloni:Yeah. I mean, those are now driving the profits at Universal and Disney.

36:45Kara Swisher:Yeah, that's a great idea. I hope that's something they should focus on. I agree with you. So talk about the Netflix of it all. The stock rebounded, obviously, after they pulled out of the auction. You've said this is personally embarrassing for CEO Ted Surrattis, who made nice with Trump, sort of, while he was trying to get the deal through. He wasn't that bad. I mean, they're all bad. On the stack ranking?

37:03Matt Belloni:Oh, I don't think it's that embarrassing. Did I say it was embarrassing? Yeah, you did.

37:06Kara Swisher:But I don't think it is at all. I was surprised when I read that.

37:08Matt Belloni:I think it's a little embarrassing. but nothing damaging to Ted. Like, he'll move on.

37:13Kara Swisher:Right. And you point out the company is getting this$2.8 billion. They still rock. I'm sorry. They're still really smart about how they program.

37:21Matt Belloni:They do, but I don't think they're done here. I don't think they're just going to say, you know what? We tried. Let's go back to our core business of streaming and let's not try to be a fully diversified media conglomerate like some of these other companies. I think that if Sony is available in the near future, they will go after Sony Pictures. and try to buy that because it's the next best thing to Warner Brothers if among studios that might be available. It's got a pretty big library. It's got a great TV production business. And importantly, there would be fewer antitrust concerns, I think, because they wouldn't be dominating the streaming market like they would have if they had bought HBO.

38:01Kara Swisher:Right. That's interesting. So Sony? Sony. I think that there are other companies. Scott has talked about a Disney hookup. We're going to get to Disney in a second.

38:08Matt Belloni:Scott thinks that Netflix and Disney are going to merge.

38:10Kara Swisher:He wants them to, I think, more than any. I was like, you cannot get that one through.

38:15Matt Belloni:No, no, no, no, no.

38:16Kara Swisher:Under any circumstances.

38:18Matt Belloni:I believe the Apple thing more than I believe the Netflix thing.

38:21Kara Swisher:Oh, interesting. Apple and Disney, yeah.

38:23Matt Belloni:Because Apple, at least, that would take Apple in a different direction. Sure. I think, I just don't see Netflix wanting to deal.

38:31Kara Swisher:Sony is a great idea. AMC, they can hook up a lot of content, right? They could.

38:36Matt Belloni:I mean, Lionsgate is for sale. I don't think that Netflix is going to buy Lionsgate. I know their stock pop. AMC? AMC, I assume you mean the networks, not the theaters. Yes, no, not the theaters. Maybe, but I don't, but again, like -

38:49Kara Swisher:Let me be clear, Ted Serenos does not like theaters. He does not. He does not. He said it to me on stage publicly. I know he doesn't. He likes them okay.

38:59Matt Belloni:He says he personally likes going to the theater, but it's not our model.

39:02Kara Swisher:I think he correctly, since it's like, let consumers do what they want if they don't like them and they are showing they don't like them by not going, except sometimes, let consumers, he's a let consumers decide. And I think he's right.

39:13Matt Belloni:Well, unless he's trying to buy a theatrical movie studio and then all of a sudden for two months, he changed his tune and said, well, we weren't in that business and now we're going to be in this business and we're going to honor it.

39:22Kara Swisher:That was the most painful part. But he didn't give up Susan Rice. So let's give him that. So you think they'll be fine? They'll be -

39:29Matt Belloni:Oh yeah, I'm not worried about it.

39:31Kara Swisher:They kind of won by losing, right?

39:32Matt Belloni:Yeah, they got paid off. They slowed their competitor down. They caused a very deep-pocketed competitor to pay a lot more money than they would have.

39:42Kara Swisher:Center of shitty action, a lot of controversial layoffs, crazy news people, like everything, right?

39:50Matt Belloni:And if this all goes as every other media merger has gone over the past 50 years, these assets could be available in four or five years. That's correct. Where Netflix could then swoop in and get it potentially for a lot cheaper.

40:03Kara Swisher:or get the pieces they want. And, you know, to me, Warner is the Hope Diamond. Like, anyone who gets it dies. Is Zaslav going to be allowed to go anywhere in Hollywood now after he's sort of done this? I mean, from a shareholder point of view, nice job, Dave. From a Hollywood studio point of view, boy, I'd be pissed off.

40:22Matt Belloni:I don't think talent is going to be lining up to go to his dinner parties like they have been the last couple of years when he's invited them over to Bob Evans' house. You know, he lives in Bob Evans' house.

40:31Kara Swisher:No, I know. I know. I'm aware.

40:34Matt Belloni:I think he will end up selling that house.

40:36Kara Swisher:Yeah.

40:36Matt Belloni:Because.

40:37Kara Swisher:That was a searchy move, wasn't it?

40:38Matt Belloni:He will be more comfortable in New York and the Hamptons. He should go to New York and the Hamptons

40:43Kara Swisher:and put on his, you know, comfortable sneakers.

40:46Matt Belloni:And he can go to lunch with Barry Diller and David Geffen and they will all high five him.

40:50Kara Swisher:Laugh their ass off because Geffen invested. He made some money. Oh, yeah.

40:54Matt Belloni:He made hundreds of millions of dollars.

40:55Kara Swisher:Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The rich get richer. Anyway, you're right. That's what he should do.

40:59Matt Belloni:Let's count how many times he is thanked at the Oscars.

41:01Kara Swisher:Oh, yeah, that's true. It's not going to be like.

41:04Matt Belloni:It's going to be the Mike and Pam show. Mike DeLuca and Pam Abdi will get thanked over and over again. Although I've been saying this for a week now. And I think because I've been saying that, they have been telegraphing to the talent to make sure to thank him. So I may have spoiled my own theory here.

41:19Kara Swisher:Oh, you should have kept it yourself. All right. I know. So let's get to Disney really quick. A big story coming out of Hollywood, this succession story. Josh DeMauro, the current chairman of Disney Experiences, takes over as CEO on March 18th. You've written, quote, Disney's honeymoon period obscures a bunch of under-discussed challenges across the company, but especially in the content realm, you're absolutely right, where DeMauro is the least experienced and potentially conflicts are already brewing. What are the big challenges for DeMauro and the legacy of Bob Iger?

41:47Matt Belloni:I think for Disney, the real challenge is to shore up the streaming future and create and really have a powerhouse growing and profitable streaming service? Because Disney Plus is not growing, not nearly as fast as some of the others. They have pulled back the investment there because they were so concerned about profitability after the spending spree during COVID. And they really have to figure out what their strategy is. Do they even want to be a general interest streaming service? that's a that's a legitimate question the disney brand and what disney stands for and what a lot of people subscribe to disney plus for kids programming yeah it's not the stuff that is pumped out on hulu it's not the ryan murphy stuff it's not it you know and does disney even want that i could see tomorrow looking at this and saying well okay let's spin off these linear networks, FX and Freeform and even ABC and focus on what makes Disney Disney.

42:52Matt Belloni:Disney.

42:52Kara Swisher:Right. Which is a very good business. There isn't anyone near them as so many tries to reach Disney. I mean, there's bits and pieces like K-pop Demon Hunters and et cetera, but there's not there really, if I had to, someone was like, if you had to get rid of a streaming service, I said two, I'd have to have Netflix and Disney. That's it. And if I had to, I'd like, I like Netflix better, but if I got rid of Disney, my kids would kill me. Yeah.

43:15Matt Belloni:Essentially. And maybe he'll decide that that's their future and not trying to compete with Netflix and YouTube to be the everything service.

43:23Kara Swisher:Well, what happens to ABC?

43:25Matt Belloni:That would be a big about face from the Iger strategy. He did think Disney deserved to be up there with all. I mean, he was a television guy. He was a broadcasting guy. So ABC was his North Star and being all things to everyone. Maybe not for tomorrow. I think gaming. DeMauro has had the Epic Games relationship and they're developing a Disney presence in Fortnite. I could see DeMauro making a big acquisition in gaming.

43:49Kara Swisher:Oh, epic.

43:50Matt Belloni:To try to keep up with that world. Disney has had a horrible track record.

43:55Kara Swisher:Oh, trust me. I've been there for every one of those. Oh, I can't even remember all the names.

43:59Matt Belloni:Yeah, I remember it was Club Penguin and then it was -

44:01Kara Swisher:There was another one.

44:02Matt Belloni:There was a multi-channel group that they bought called Maker Studios.

44:06Kara Swisher:Oh, Makers. I told them not to do that. I was like, no, no, no. That was a disaster.

44:10Matt Belloni:Yeah, it wasn't that expensive, but they did flop on that.

44:13Kara Swisher:I know, but it was dumb. And then Jimmy Patero had to clean it up, essentially.

44:17Matt Belloni:It has not been their successful area. And maybe DeMauro can reverse that. I think interactivity with AI, they have this open AI deal where they've now handed over their characters to open AI to create interactivity on Disney+.

44:32Kara Swisher:We'll see about that.

44:33Matt Belloni:And the biggest challenge and something that I really hope DeMauro can leverage his theme park experience to create is Disney needs to create the everything app. The app that Disney fans can feel like serve all of the things that they want out of Disney. Shows, social networking, shopping, games. Yep. Theme park experiences. You still cannot really sync up your Disney Plus with the experiential experience that you have in a park.

45:07Kara Swisher:I'll give Iger this. He tried early and often, and he didn't succeed quite a lot. But he did. Of the many executives I dealt with, he definitely kept making efforts. It just didn't work. So what is his legacy now? Of course, everyone knows in 2022, the board fire is Bob Chapek. Bob Iger's handpicked successor. He comes back as CEO. He was mighty board on the ship in the South Seas. So when he was in charge, they settled this Trump lawsuit that probably could have won. Jimmy Kimmel gets suspended and then reinstated, although I think there's a little more complexity of that over these Charlie Kirk comments.

45:39Kara Swisher:It looks like caving to Trump. Again, I have a feeling there's a more interesting story there. So to talk a little bit about this final moment for Bob Iger, because the stock has not done very well, if that's the way you want to judge it. But judge it on a couple of different ways.

45:56Matt Belloni:I will judge it on a couple ways, because first there's Iger 1, and then there's Iger 2. And Iger 1, I think most people would agree that he did a fantastic job setting up the company for the digital future in the sense that he bought the IP machines that have powered Disney to be one of those companies that we all now accept is going to survive. That was not a given when Iger took over.

46:22Kara Swisher:No, he was. He was early, I have to say.

46:25Matt Belloni:So buying Pixar, buying Marvel, buying Lucasfilm, Fox a little bit dicier. They bought it. That was a very expensive deal. And they got some great stuff. I'm still kind of defending the Fox deal, but a lot of people think they way overpaid and didn't get that much out of it.

46:41Kara Swisher:Right. Way overpaid. When did that ever happen? I know.

46:44Matt Belloni:But at least they had the tools to launch Disney Plus and to really compete. Iger 2, when he came back, it was a much different situation. It was a triage mode for a little bit. They cut the costs. They fired a bunch of people. they stopped doing a lot of the things that were enabled under JPEG. They're just now, you know, Pixar just did a big interview where they're saying, yeah, we stopped making movies that were personal hand drawn projects from filmmakers. Now we're going back to big, broad Disney style entertainment, which should have been a given, but it wasn't for a while at Disney. So he's kind of set the company back on track in some ways.

47:25Matt Belloni:But in others, it feels like Disney is a little behind in streaming. It feels like they're not as aggressive as some of their peers. The stock is certainly not where it should be. There's no growth narrative for Disney. And Iger has really struggled to articulate what the next 20 to 30 years of the Walt Disney Company are going to be.

47:47Kara Swisher:Well, he might be like, I've had enough, right? I'm out of ideas.

47:50Matt Belloni:Well, maybe, but that's kind of the job is to get investors excited about where you're going. and we haven't really heard that.

48:00Kara Swisher:So what will new guy do then? What is his big idea? If you were run charts, let me ask that question again. What would you do there? What's your big strategic move?

48:09Matt Belloni:I don't know that I'm prepared to dump the linear business.

48:13Kara Swisher:Yeah.

48:14Matt Belloni:I just don't. I think that I'm a little bit more in the eager camp that Disney has a responsibility to at least try to be everything, be a broadcaster for the digital age and still offer adult programming, all audience programming, in addition to the family stuff. I think that they are smart in investing$60 billion in the parks and experiences. The cruise business is insanely profitable for them and a best in class product. They have what Netflix would kill for. They have the brand identity that powers their entire flywheel. And they can do that in a way that Netflix wishes it could. So I would lean into that.

49:00Matt Belloni:And I would lean into the things that make Disney Disney.

49:03Kara Swisher:And what about the Apple idea of them being bought by Apple?

49:06Matt Belloni:First of all, I wish that doesn't happen because I think that Disney is like the one Hollywood company that can determine its own destiny.

49:14Kara Swisher:Possibly. Yeah.

49:15Matt Belloni:If Apple buys Disney, it's pretty much over, right? There will be no Hollywood companies, Hollywood studios not owned by outside interests.

49:25Kara Swisher:Right.

49:26Matt Belloni:If that happened. And I just don't, I mean, Apple's content aspirations are still a mystery to me. I don't, I just don't think Apple wants to be in the theme park business. Do you? No, they don't.

49:37Kara Swisher:No, I don't. I think Apple just is sort of here and they're sort of, they put out a good show or two and. It's a brand halo. They'll do a severance, which is great. But I feel like Tim wants to go to the Oscars.

49:48Matt Belloni:You think that's it? I think they do think there's a business there.

49:51Kara Swisher:I think it'll help with their other things. I think just the way, same thing with Amazon. Let's move then to Amazon. We haven't mentioned them. They're a company that is also very involved in some of this stuff. And from my perspective, I think it's about something else. So you're just there to sell things. And the same thing I felt with Apple. I just didn't understand why they thought. They're not interested.

50:12Matt Belloni:At least Amazon is trying to turn it into a real business and is trying to get a real audience there. They have a football deal. They are doing broader, more all audience content. They're doing movies.

50:24Kara Swisher:They're about to come out with Project Hail Mary, which is getting killer. It's an attempt at a big blockbuster. It's getting great. And they're putting it in theaters.

50:31Matt Belloni:They're putting their movies in theaters, which everyone except Netflix argues is the best way to create a brand around a movie. Although Netflix and Apple, Apple is not putting their movies in theaters.

50:41Kara Swisher:No, but you said your colleague, Scott Mendelsohn, writes that the closest thing to a franchise-free, one-and-done global blockbuster that Hollywood hasn't attempted since Tenet in 2020. And I think it's going to work. Is it Amazon's Hail Mary? Do they need it? Does it matter?

50:56Matt Belloni:Well, Amazon doesn't need anything in Hollywood. If they shut the entire operation down tomorrow, I think they would recover pretty quickly. But on the terms that they have set for themselves, where they have said, we are going to double down on movies, not only going to make them, we're going to make them at big budgets with big stars and put them in theaters. This is the Hail Mary year for Amazon because Courtney Valente, who runs that studio. She came from Warner Brothers. This is her slate, finally. And these movies coming out this year, they have a He-Man movie that I'm sure you're very excited about.

51:28Matt Belloni:I am. They have a - You don't know.

51:30Kara Swisher:My taste in movies is a little like David Ellison's, kind of cheap and dirty.

51:35Matt Belloni:Well, then you'll love the He-Man movie.

51:37Kara Swisher:Greenland 1, Greenland 2, Maverick. That's my taste.

51:40Matt Belloni:Yeah, but I bet you'll like Project Hail Mary too.

51:43Kara Swisher:I bet I will. I will. I want to see it. So, but let's go back. So where do you think Amazon fits in this?

51:48Matt Belloni:I think they're an important buyer now. They're a firmament of the Hollywood establishment now. Now they are. They are doing shows. They are doing movies. They are doing just as many, if not more, than anyone except Netflix.

52:01Kara Swisher:Right. So stack rank those, the buyers right now, very quickly.

52:05Matt Belloni:Netflix is the biggest buyer in terms of original content.

52:08Kara Swisher:Or where people want to go.

52:10Matt Belloni:Well, that's slightly different because if you're a filmmaker, you don't want to go to Netflix because they will not give your movie a theatrical release. If you're a filmmaker, I think probably Universal is the number one studio.

52:22Kara Swisher:Donna Langley, the elegant.

52:24Matt Belloni:She's fantastic. And they can take care of your movie. They have a fantastic marketing department. And the number, the top filmmakers, you know, this year they have a Chris Nolan movie. They have a Spielberg movie. They have a Jordan Peele movie coming next year. They they they're really cultivating these filmmakers as brands. And then Warner Brothers has really stepped up and tried to do that as well under their regime right now. They have Ryan Coogler doing Sinners and One Battle After Another. And they have a number of other films. They have a Tom Cruise movie later this year with Alejandro Iñárritu directing.

52:58Kara Swisher:Does that change with the Ellisons? Will people be like, oh, I'm not hanging out with these people?

53:02Matt Belloni:I don't think so. I think people are willing to separate. You know, it's like people worked for Rupert for many years. That is true. Cameron worked for Rupert. And Rupert was smart enough to, there was a dichotomy between the Fox News operation in New York and the studio in LA. And he was smart about it. He did not let one contaminate the other.

53:23Kara Swisher:Right. And it's very contaminated.

53:25Matt Belloni:And I think the Ellisons, if they are smart, they will do the same. It's just a matter of whether the situation at CNN and CBS blows up. Yeah.

53:34Kara Swisher:Yeah. It's interesting.

53:35Matt Belloni:If it becomes something that movie stars get asked about on the red carpet, like, why are you working with this network when they're doing this? That then it becomes uncomfortable. But ultimately, people want to sell their projects.

53:45Kara Swisher:Right. And get them out there. We'll be back in a minute.

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55:41Kara Swisher:So let's finish up by talking about this existential dread that you talked about, this megaphone of the Titanic. I mean, including legacy media and including Hollywood under the broad umbrella, it's facing a crisis at the same, you know, you have YouTube and Netflix, the most dominant forces in watching. Like my kids, YouTube is television to them, like period. Even if you combine Disney Plus and Hulu, they're still in third. Future Warmer Mount would still lag behind. What is the path here for those legacy media companies if you want to lump them, even though some of them are now owned by Amazon, owned by the Ellisons?

56:14Matt Belloni:Well, there's one to sell, which is what MGM did and what, you know, what Warners did here. Then there's the consolidation element where you can start to try to buy up other little things and try and get more scale, which we are also seeing in the business. And then I think there is the do we have enough question, which I think Disney has asked. And I think Disney has answered it with, yes, we do have enough to compete. And then what do you do? You have to really maximize your assets, lean in where you have strengths, maybe cut areas where you have weaknesses, and try to stake out some kind of real estate in the streaming ecosystem.

56:58Matt Belloni:Are you going to be one of the four services?

57:01Kara Swisher:And there can only be four, right?

57:02Matt Belloni:Well, there could. I mean, we think ultimately three or four services.

57:06Kara Swisher:To be. You have different ones.

57:08Matt Belloni:Yeah, or do you try to do something like Tubi, where they're not trying to ultimately compete with Netflix. They're trying to have a business. And it's a very specific business in free, ad-supported TV. And they're owned by Fox, so they have a provider of content. And that can be a business. Just like Sony has carved out a business for themselves, Sony Pictures, where they are not trying to have a platform that appeals to everyone. They sell to everyone. And they've been very successful selling product. They got$7 billion out of Netflix for their pay one output deal for their library.

57:44Kara Swisher:Make some good stuff and then take the stuff you have that's good and sell it, but also make some new stuff.

57:49Matt Belloni:And they are making, and that's valuable. Netflix is the first place you will see Spider-Man after it's in theaters. Netflix is the first place you saw, you know, anyone but you or where you'll see, you know, the Spider-Verse movies. because Netflix places value on that. Sony can throw in the rest of its library and get billions of dollars for this.

58:13Kara Swisher:So the other existential risk, obviously working in the background for actual workers who make films and television series, the writers, the crew members, maybe even actors as AI, of course. Big topic. You're always asked about it. I'm always asked about it. Netflix just bought Ben Affleck's startup, Interpositive. It makes AI-powered tools for filmmakers. Seems like a good idea. Tools is a great idea.

58:32Matt Belloni:Yeah, that's very different than text prompts and things. It's basically just a tool for your dailies to help you complete the movie in a more efficient manner.

58:42Kara Swisher:It's like doing a better email. Write this email for me, essentially.

58:45Matt Belloni:Yes. But it also gives Netflix a little bit of cover to do other stuff, which I think they are doing.

58:52Kara Swisher:That's right. Which is?

58:53Matt Belloni:Such as integrating AI into their visual effects processes or their animation processes or even their storyboarding. and all these other things where humans currently do that stuff. But most of these studios believe that five to seven years from now, all of that will be automated and the cost will come down on these movies.

59:13Kara Swisher:Yeah, I give the example of costumes. Why not just put a costume on Scarlett Johansson that doesn't exist and just keep doing it? Like, why do costume fittings? Why do everything? So what is the effect on creatives of Hollywood? Is this contraction? How do you look at it? I'm sure everyone asks you, what am I going to do? And they're mostly worried about AI slop. And you just did a whole episode on this with Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw. So give us a quick synopsis.

59:37Matt Belloni:It is the number one thing people care about in Hollywood is, is my job going to be eliminated? And the answer, sadly, for a lot of people is yes. That a lot of these things like production design and costuming and storyboarding and visual effects, those will absolutely be influenced if not replaced by AI. eventually now there are union protections that protect some of these people and the above the line guilds have been at least somewhat effective in saying okay if you want to use ai to write a script fine but there will be a human attached to that project who will ultimately be the credited writer who must be paid like a union represented writer and the same for directors and actors it's the other stuff that I think is going to be much more impacted like animators like people who are um you know sound designers things like there will there still be humans involved but there will be fewer of them that's how Jim Cameron talks about it it's like yeah AI is going to come in but it's going to help make a movie that takes four years take two years same thing with medicine

1:00:48Kara Swisher:It's a drug that takes four years, two months.

1:00:51Matt Belloni:And the way Cameron characterized it is, no, it's not going to eliminate jobs. It's going to allow us to do more. And that's a nice, optimistic way of thinking about it. But ultimately, people who have to spend four years on a movie are employed for four years.

1:01:05Kara Swisher:Right.

1:01:06Matt Belloni:Where is that second movie coming from after two years? Maybe it's out there and maybe we will be able to produce more or maybe we won't. And it will just be that the entire industry contracts to these two-year jobs.

1:01:19Kara Swisher:What about the actors and AI slop in general?

1:01:22Matt Belloni:Yeah, I mean, the actors union is trying to protect that stuff. You cannot use a SAG-AFTRA actor in an AI program like that. And there are rights, there are right of publicity rights in most states, including California, where you have the right. That whole Brad Pitt fighting Tom Cruise video that was on Seed Dance, that is not allowed. And they took that down because you do have rights to your own name, image, and likeness.

1:01:52Kara Swisher:Although YouTube did that and then they dominated. Like that was the beginning of YouTube, those fights, speaking of Philippe Daumann and Eric Schmidt.

1:01:58Matt Belloni:Yeah. And most of these AI companies have taken the position that we will ask for forgiveness rather than ask for permission. So it's going to be whack-a-mole. And hopefully there will be some court decisions that will come down on the side of content owners that will allow them to protect this stuff before it gets into the ethos.

1:02:18Kara Swisher:Who's the most important AI company in this right now then?

1:02:22Matt Belloni:I would say Google. Because, you know, the whole reason that Disney did that open AI deal, other than experimenting, but it was to put pressure on Gemini and on Google. because they have not come to the table and tried to work out a deal. And Disney very much wants Google to pay them and to work out some kind of deal. They're going to use characters. So, you know, we'll see. And keep in mind also, when Disney did this open AI deal, the one thing they weren't able to license are voices. Right. And the images of the actors that play these characters. So if you look, it's Luke Skywalker, but it's the animated Luke Skywalker.

1:03:04Matt Belloni:It's Homer Simpson, but Homer doesn't talk. Right. So it's not a full experience without getting the intellectual property rights of the humans that are associated with these characters.

1:03:17Kara Swisher:Which they'll have to pay for. Yes.

1:03:19Matt Belloni:Or you do a James Earl Jones deal. James Earl Jones, before he died, he licensed his voice to an AI company that will work with his estate and pay his relatives.

1:03:29Kara Swisher:What effect does it have then on storytelling and creativity? I mean, what occurs in that environment?

1:03:35Matt Belloni:Well, the thinking is, is that the innovation in this area is going to come from outside Hollywood because of the limitations on the rights to use these IPs and these actors that the real benefits are going to accrue to these outside companies that are just doing it on their own. I'm not so sure about that because, you know, what were we talking about from Seed Dance? We weren't talking about any of the AI videos that they generated. We were talking about the Tom Cruise Brad Pitt video. There is value in things that we know and can associate with entertainment. Maybe they'll create their own stars.

1:04:16Matt Belloni:Maybe there will be the AI Tom Cruise.

1:04:19Kara Swisher:Yeah, they're trying.

1:04:20Matt Belloni:They're trying. I know. I don't say the Tilly Norwood.

1:04:24Kara Swisher:No, there's just something wrong with it.

1:04:25Matt Belloni:That is silly.

1:04:27Kara Swisher:Someone just sent me an AI version of myself for a speech I'm giving and it was the wrong glass. It doesn't look, I was like, take this the fuck down. Like, don't put my face on it.

1:04:34Matt Belloni:Yeah, and obviously all that's going to get better and you will be able to replicate. And I've seen some things online like that AI Pierce Morgan looked pretty real. It did, sort of. But you know what? Like, I think that there is something about human creativity and the human touch on actors that at least for a while. Not just actors, writers.

1:04:56Kara Swisher:The two big movies this year were Sinners and Weapons. Very dependent on their two creators.

1:05:01Matt Belloni:And not something that AI would have created. Because AI is a mean. It just boils stuff down based on what we've seen before.

1:05:11Kara Swisher:I would see it like make more West Wings. That's fine.

1:05:14Matt Belloni:I did that. So I interviewed Aaron Sorkin at an event in DC. and I put, I asked Chachi BT to create a West Wing script based on something that was going on in the Trump White House. And I read him some dialogue. It was cringey. It was terrible. He was so embarrassed.

1:05:34Kara Swisher:Yeah, yeah. Well, we'll see where it goes. A couple more things before we go. One is, does politics really affect Hollywood right now? Obviously, Trump pretends to. I think it's the end of the era at this point. But you have FCC Chairman Brandon Carr, who I call the moron, trying to meddle. You've got Trump saying things, trying to attack. I think they're sort of run through their paces here and it's almost over. Do they care in Hollywood? They certainly have bent a knee a little bit. That's the expression people use.

1:06:02Matt Belloni:Yeah, there is a feeling that Hollywood is under attack by the Trump administration. And that either via Brandon Carr or via the Trump people wielding the regulatory power, that you have to bend the knee. And you have to, you know, Bob Iger, I'm sure you've talked to him, he hates this stuff.

1:06:23Kara Swisher:He hates having to do this. Almost all of them do. Almost all of them do. Yeah, and it's just, it's embarrassing for them.

1:06:31Matt Belloni:And I feel like that is kind of cast a pall over the industry that it's, you know, there was favored status and there's not favored status anymore. And in fact, the Trump people are actively trying to, leverage and denigrate the industry. Even little things like using Tropic Thunder in an Iran war video. People got pissed about that.

1:06:55Kara Swisher:Everyone did.

1:06:56Matt Belloni:Everyone was pissed.

1:06:56Kara Swisher:Everyone they used. So let's finish up two things. The Academy Awards are on Sunday, so I can't let you go before we talk a tiny bit about the Oscars. Earlier this year, the Grammy Awards were full of overt anti-ice messages from the artists. The BAFTA Awards were held later in February, and the BBC broadcast censored pro-Palestinian remarks made by an award winner. But I should mention they aired the N-word, Tourette syndrome campaigner John Davidson was in the audience promoting a documentary about the disability. He had unfortunate vocal outbursts. The BBC apologized for that oversight. Talk about the Oscars very quickly.

1:07:23Kara Swisher:Will politics be front and center? There shouldn't be a lot of Trump jokes, would be my guess.

1:07:27Matt Belloni:You know, the last couple of years, there haven't been as many Trump jokes. Certainly not like there were in 2017 and 2018. I think the industry kind of recognized and they were they were kind of trying not to enrage and poke the bear a little bit but the ice stuff i think this past year i think yeah it will it will certainly be front and center but it's not kimmel it's conan it's conan yeah conan is not as political and they picked him for that reason because they don't want to turn you know they i've always argued that the the politics stuff is is not in the best interest i agree people tune it out have you ever watched one

1:08:09Kara Swisher:of these award shows with your more conservative relatives yes i have i have and they turn it off they don't want to be lectured to but it's okay at the grammys i feel like the grammys are are

1:08:21Matt Belloni:musicians like they're supposed to be outrageous and that's that's kind of fun although you know obviously you know when ted sarandos was in dc for the hearing all of a sudden it turned into to Ted Cruz talking about what Billie Eilish said at the Grammys. Oh, my God. And it's like, that didn't even air on Netflix.

1:08:39Kara Swisher:I know. It had nothing to do with Netflix. He's a moron. Another moron. You're never going to be president, Ted, just so you know, because nobody likes you.

1:08:46Matt Belloni:I think, honestly, the themes of this year's Two Big Contenders, Sinners, which is about kind of the stolen Black identity. Great movie, too. And One Battle After Another, which is basically about an Antifa-type organization in the aftermath of that. I think because of that, you might see a little bit more of that, at least subtly from the winners. I don't think Ryan Coogler or Paul Thomas Anderson are the kinds to get up and start lecturing, but there will be a little bit.

1:09:15Kara Swisher:They'll make a remark or two. It'll be a woman who does it in case you're interested. So let's do a quick lightning round. Who do you predict will win best actor?

1:09:21Matt Belloni:This is the race of the year.

1:09:23Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:09:24Matt Belloni:I'm going with Chalamet. I'm going with Jordan. You are. Why is that? Because of the online backlash to him saying that ballet and opera are not cool anymore?

1:09:32Kara Swisher:No, I don't really care about ballet. I don't, I don't. No, but people think

1:09:36Matt Belloni:that Timmy lost the Oscar because he made disparaging comments about opera.

1:09:39Kara Swisher:I don't really care about that.

1:09:40Matt Belloni:But voting had basically closed. You think the sinner's momentum is going to propel Michael B. Jordan?

1:09:45Kara Swisher:I just think he's the best. I think he deserves it. And he's, and it's for his body of work. He's just, he's a star.

1:09:50Matt Belloni:But you know it never, the body of work never matters. Sometimes it does.

1:09:53Kara Swisher:In this case, it's a great movie and people remember it. Yeah, sometimes you're right. People, you know, for the last one they just did, people are remembering what a great movie it was.

1:10:00Matt Belloni:Yeah, I would love it. And Michael B. Jordan is great.

1:10:02Kara Swisher:I have seen Sinners several times. I've never seen Timote. I just don't want to look at him.

1:10:06Matt Belloni:I just don't want to look at him.

1:10:08Kara Swisher:I don't want to look at him. He looks like a lesbian. He looks like someone I dated in the 1980s. Oh my God, really? Anyway, yeah, okay. Very pretty guy. Best actress?

1:10:17Matt Belloni:Jessie Buckley. Buckley. Easy.

1:10:19Kara Swisher:Buckley. Easy. Do you see him in it? I can't see it because dead children. I can't do it.

1:10:23Matt Belloni:It's tough, but it's rewarding. It's rewarding.

1:10:26Kara Swisher:I love her period, even though I'm sorry about the bride, but I've always loved her. I think she's great. And everybody seems to think she's the best one there.

1:10:33Matt Belloni:The only stunner would be Rose Byrne for if I had legs, I'd kick you. I love her.

1:10:38Kara Swisher:I love her.

1:10:39Matt Belloni:But Jesse Buckley has won everything.

1:10:40Kara Swisher:Jesse Buckley's overwhelmingly the odds on favorite. Best original screenplay?

1:10:45Matt Belloni:I think it's going to be Sinners. That's a shoo-in.

1:10:48Kara Swisher:Yeah, he's amazing. That's the one.

1:10:49Matt Belloni:We at least know Coogler will have one moment on stage because even if he doesn't win director picture, he'll win screenplay.

1:10:56Kara Swisher:All right, director?

1:10:57Matt Belloni:Paul Thomas Anderson. Okay. He's won all of the precursor awards.

1:11:02Kara Swisher:All right. I just feel like Googler. I love, I would love, that's who I want to get.

1:11:05Matt Belloni:Yeah. You know, don't forget the Academy has a big international branch. Oh, yeah. And the international voters, he's just been around a longer time. I know. And it's one of those where people feel like it's his time.

1:11:20Kara Swisher:Do the Oscars matter anymore? Does it matter for the business or what? For the business, it certainly matters. Declining viewership, declining, declining, declining. Do they matter for the business? Why?

1:11:31Matt Belloni:They do. And they matter because of the streaming wars. The box office of these movies is not really impacted that much by the Oscars like it used to be where you'd platform release and all of a sudden a movie that got a Best Picture nomination would gross$300 million by the time the show. That doesn't happen anymore. But the value of these titles in a sea of tiles on a streaming service. It's a differentiation. It is a differentiator. And Netflix and Amazon and Apple and Disney, they all see huge value in having an Oscar winner on the platform.

1:12:06Kara Swisher:And there's lots more awards now, too. Those matter, too.

1:12:09Matt Belloni:Yeah, all the precursors. And it's a season. It's a great promotion. It's a way to lure talent. The reason Netflix spends so much on their campaigns is because they know they have to win people over because they don't offer theaters. So they say, you know what? we may not offer you the chance to gross$100 million, but we're going to treat Frankenstein like it's the most special movie that you've ever made. We're going to have screenings for all the Academy members, all the festivals, and we're going to spend$20 million to get you an Oscar nomination. And they did. Yeah.

1:12:41Kara Swisher:Yeah. Yeah. That's true. So I'm still not going. Sorry.

1:12:45Matt Belloni:Someday. If I promised you that Cruz would be there and that you could meet him, would you come with me?

1:12:50Kara Swisher:Yes. If I could meet him, really, not just like we run into him and like we chase him around. I'm not doing that. I'm over chasing any celebrity around.

1:12:58Matt Belloni:Okay. That's my new goal.

1:13:00Kara Swisher:Let me just tell you, I like to wear soft pants. And so it would take a lot to not get me in soft pants. I'm just telling you. By the way, I'm about to be a TV star, you know, just with my TV show, Kara Swisher Wants to Live Forever on CNN. Well, there you go. And then I shall depart CNN.

1:13:13Matt Belloni:Goodbye. But are you going to, what kind of clothes are you going to wear on your show?

1:13:17Kara Swisher:You'll see my outfits. Not formal wear.

1:13:20Matt Belloni:Not formal wear. No, very comfortable.

1:13:21Kara Swisher:It's going to be great. It's coming out soon.

1:13:23Matt Belloni:What did you wear to the Man at the Fair party? You didn't wear a dress?

1:13:25Kara Swisher:No. I didn't. I just didn't dress up. I couldn't do it. I'm sorry. No one cares what I look like. I just look at people and go up to them.

1:13:32Matt Belloni:Well, I love it that I just have to wear a tuxedo. It's very easy.

1:13:34Kara Swisher:Oh, well, you look good in that. You look good. I just can't do it. And I don't want to wear a tuxedo because how lesbian is that? Anyway, last question. You've said you'd make a lot more money if you left Puck and went independent. I told you that. You and I, just for disclosure, he and I talk about the business of being independent journalists all the time. When the 2027 Oscars roll around, will you still be at Puck or why or why not? Talk a little bit about this because you did very kindly say you want to be like me someday, but you already are like me someday.

1:14:00Matt Belloni:I don't have a CNN show.

1:14:02Kara Swisher:And I do make a lot more money than you, Matt. I know this. But talk about what it's like to be an independent journalist. I mean, I was very touched when you said that. But how do you feel about doing what you're doing? Because you and I have both come up in traditional, you know, whether you were at wherever you were. And I was at the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. And I didn't work for the New York Times, but I wrote for them. Talk a little bit about where we are right now as media. because you have more influence than almost anybody, I think anybody in this thing. So how do you look at this moment?

1:14:35Kara Swisher:How do you think about it as someone who's doing independent media, which is growing in impact and influence and finances? I do really well. And I think you do too.

1:14:43Matt Belloni:The way I describe it to people who ask me about this, and they ask a lot, is if you are providing more value to the media brand that you work for than the media brand is providing to you, then you should probably leave and go independent and leverage the fact that you are the brand. Right. And I was sort of dumb. I didn't really recognize that until I started out and started doing my newsletter. And maybe I, you know, I created a product that people like, and I made a more of an impact when I was independent, but I had a lot of cachet, more cachet than I thought when I launched Puck. People called me back.

1:15:23Matt Belloni:They returned my emails. They invited me to things. I had 20 years of relationships in this world that allowed me to go out and do this thing on my own. And I don't want to downplay the role that Puck played. It's sort of a hybrid. Yeah, I was our first author and I kind of planted the flag of what the brand would be. but puck has provided a lot of services that's how i feel about yeah they they provide editing they provide the platform they provide marketing they help me put on events that you don't want to do that i don't that stuff i don't want to do and i've done it i i used to joke that my day was consumed by meetings at holland reporter and that's what you have to do when you're running a media outlet now i i actively say do i need to be in this meeting and the answer is almost always know.

1:16:14Matt Belloni:And I'm really able to focus on the product. And that's where I think I can make a big impact.

1:16:22Kara Swisher:Yeah. You just called the product like the McDonald's CEO, but go ahead.

1:16:25Matt Belloni:I know. Trust me. If you watch me eating a burger, it's a lot more authentic than that guy. Yeah. But you know what I mean? It's totally doable for a certain type of reporter, editor, especially if you have something to say. Like you have to ask yourself, like, do I have a perspective? Do I have a point of view on things? And most people don't.

1:16:50Kara Swisher:It's also based in reporting. One of the best thing that I ever heard from an editor was Tina Brown, where she said, I can teach people to write, but I can't teach them to see. You know, and she meant reporting. And I thought that was exactly right. You can't teach people.

1:17:03Matt Belloni:I don't even recognize it. I'll do a newsletter that I don't think is particularly incisive. and people will respond. They'll be like, wow, I hadn't thought of that. So like, if you do this long enough, it sort of just comes out of you. And that's really where the podcast is, where the town came from, because we were like, what are people in town talking about? And how do we reflect that in a show that would be authentic?

1:17:27Kara Swisher:All right, very, very last question. What's the most interesting story going to be in 2027 in Hollywood? Well, the end of the next year, over the next year. If you were like, What's the one that intrigues you the very most? I know I get Warner Mount's interesting, but honestly, they're just going to lose a lot of money.

1:17:43Matt Belloni:Do you think Rupert's going to die in a year?

1:17:45Kara Swisher:I think he's never going to die.

1:17:47Matt Belloni:Okay, so that's off the table. Rupert, yes.

1:17:49Kara Swisher:Okay, that's a great one.

1:17:50Matt Belloni:What happens when Rupert dies? Because I think that the Murdoch empire is going to change significantly.

1:17:57Kara Swisher:Yes.

1:17:58Matt Belloni:I think that the newspapers will either be sold or carved up or, you know, what's going to happen to the Fox broadcasting? All of that stuff is in play. The succession battle is over, but when Rupert's gone, I think all bets are off.

1:18:13Kara Swisher:All right. And who's the most important player, right? If you had to pick one right now going forward, if you say that person is critical.

1:18:21Matt Belloni:I think two, Josh DeMauro and David Ellison in terms of what they're going to do. They've got the most choices to make. Right. And choices are what it's all about. What you choose to do and don't do, the bets you make, the transformative deals that you okay, all of that.

1:18:39Kara Swisher:And who's going to be more successful if you want to make a bet?

1:18:42Matt Belloni:Oh, God. I don't know. I want them both to be successful for the benefit of the industry.

1:18:47Kara Swisher:Oh, you're so nice.

1:18:48Matt Belloni:But you know what? In terms of track record, obviously, DeMauro has a track record of success in the Parks division at Disney. And we'll see how he does atop the whole thing.

1:19:00Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:19:00Matt Belloni:David Ellison doesn't have as much experience. He ran a smallish production company and is now running two studios. So we'll see how that goes. But we'll see. He's got a lot of smart people around him.

1:19:12Kara Swisher:Well, we'll see who stays around. We'll see who comes around and stuff like that. I always go with the person who didn't get their job by being born in any industry, except for Rupert Murdoch. Yeah. But he took a small operation and made a huge global.

1:19:27Matt Belloni:Yeah. Same with Brian Roberts at Comcast.

1:19:30Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:19:30Matt Belloni:Same with Sumner Redstone. You know, he took a small theater company. Yeah, but I don't think, I don't love, you know, people being born and getting a job.

1:19:42Kara Swisher:I don't love it. I don't love it. Never love it.

1:19:44Matt Belloni:Well, we certainly wouldn't be talking about David Ellison as the, you know, second most powerful person in Hollywood if he wasn't born who he was. But you know what? It is what it is.

1:19:54Kara Swisher:Yep. And here we are. All right, Matt, this has been so fascinating. You are a wonderful journalist. You really are. And I put that first and foremost.

1:20:01Matt Belloni:Well, I appreciate it. You know I'm a fan.

1:20:02Kara Swisher:You're a snarky person, which I love. But, and I love that part, but at your heart, you're an excellent reporter. And that's the critical part, everybody, just so you know, for both of us, is snarky and obnoxious. Yeah, snark doesn't sell.

1:20:13Matt Belloni:No one subscribes to snark. They like it. They do like it. It's got, my point, you always got to have everything. You got to be entertaining. You got to be newsy. You got to have reporting. And you got to have smart perspective.

1:20:25Kara Swisher:Yep, absolutely. And you have all that. Anyway, thank you so much. This was really fun. I really was looking forward to it. Thank you so much.

1:20:31Matt Belloni:Oscars 27, you and me.

1:20:33Kara Swisher:Okay. All right. You get it going. All right. Okay. Thank you, Matt. Today's show was produced by Christian Castro-Russell, Michelle Alloy, Catherine Millsop, Megan Burney, and Kaylin Lynch. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Special thanks to Madeline LaPlante-Duby and Corinne Ruff. This episode was engineered by Aaliyah Jackson-Perez, and our theme music is by Trackademics. If you're following the show, you get to run CBS News. If not, you're a Nepo mogul. Go wherever you listen to podcasts, search for On with Kara Swisher and hit follow. Thanks for listening to On with Kara Swisher from Podium Media, New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network and us.

1:21:15Kara Swisher:We'll be back on Monday with more.