America’s Greatest Threats Are Coming with Admiral James Stavridis & Elliot Ackerman

0:04Hello, I'm Anthony Scaramucci, and this is Open Book, where I talk with some of the brightest minds out there about everything surrounding the written word, from authors and historians to figures in entertainment, neuroscientists, political activists, and of course, Wall Street. Sorry, I can't resist. Before we get into today's episode, if you haven't already, please hit follow or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts and leave us a review. We all love a review, even the bad ones. I want to hear the parts you're enjoying or how we can do better. You know, I can roll with the punches, so let me know.

0:38Anyways, let's get to it.

0:47If we consider the world we live in right now in 2024, what will it look like in 2034? What about 2054? And we may want to take a breath before thinking about 2084. I'm hoping to be here in 2084, actually. With existential threats, advancements in artificial intelligence, leadership struggles, and our climate catastrophe, there's a lot to come. Admiral James Sarvidis and Elliot Ackerman join me today to share a cautionary tale of what the future could look like.

1:29Okay, super excited today. Joining us on Open Book is Admiral James Starvitis and Elliot Ackerman. Now, Admiral is a retired four-star US naval officer. He is the former dean of the Fletcher School. Elliot Ackerman is an award-winning author and he's a Marine veteran. The book today is 2054, but we had a prior book. So this is sort of a part two of 2034, which was a bestseller a few years ago. I read that book and I wanted to hide in a bunker. I felt like I was reading a presidential daily brief is what I actually really felt like because you know you guys have had access to that you know crazy that is so I want to thank you both for joining let's talk first about the new novel it's a sequel to your previous bestseller um you went to Tufts too didn't you Elliot I believe you did right I did yes that's right yeah we're gonna leave Tufts out of this right now because you know I don't know they gotta get they gotta get the screws back on a machine there I think a little bit.

2:26Although once a jumbo, always a jumbo. But let's just talk about 2054 for a second. Why did you guys write the second book? Obviously, the first one was a bestseller, so that's probably the reason. But knowing the Admiral as well as I know him, he wants to get this information out into the public domain about what the existential risks are. Well, it's wonderful to be on the All Jumbo podcast. The idea right from the beginning, Anthony was to do a trilogy of books. And the first one, obviously, as you mentioned, 2034, about a war with China, big risk. The second novel brings artificial intelligence and civil conflict in America to the mix, but keeps that geopolitical overlay.

3:08And then the third novel in the trilogy will be out in a year or so is 2084, which is about climate and the geopolitical consequences of that. So I would say all along, we were in the mode of thinking trilogy and thinking cautionary fiction. But I'll let Elliot tell the story of how we came together as co-authors. It's a good one. Yeah. And even though you said we'll keep the tough stuff off the podcast, it's inevitable in finding the story how we met. So Jim had the idea for 2034 and pitched it to, who was by coincidence, our shared editor, Scott Moyers at Penguin Press, who's sort of the third musketeer amongst us.

3:49And he said to Jim, well, you know, this sounds great, but, you know, have you thought about working with a novelist on this? And I work with this novelist named Elliot. And Scott didn't know that Jim and I had a previous friendship from our time at Tufts. And that when he was dean of the Fletcher School, he had me there for a semester as writer in residents. So we sort of had this loose kind of conversation that we've been contemporaneously having just all about books. And so that was sort of how we were matched up was through this Tufts connection. And so we sat down and just started, you know, one chapter at a time, writing these books and taking on this sort of larger three book project.

4:25Oh, the only reason why I was saying not to bring up Tufts, they're in a little bit of a controversy with everything that's going on right now. And I don't like throwing eggs and tomatoes at them. I just wish them well. We can certainly talk about them. I had a great time when I was there. But here's what I want to ask you, because I don't want to give up too much of the plot line. The book is so good that you guys really wrote that proverbial page turner. You want to get to the next chapter. You almost want to go to the back of the book to see what the hell is going on. But you're like, okay, let me just try to get through this.

4:54It's a very enjoyable book. But I'm going to ask you some broad questions, if you don't mind, about US existential threats. OK, the Soviet Union, Mr. Starvedis, Admiral Starvedis, they have hypersonic missiles? Very much so. And in fact, Anthony, as you probably know, they're using them in Ukraine. And these are missiles that go five to six times the speed of sound. There's really no classic air defense counter for them at the moment. So that's a very concerning aspect of current geopolitics. Mr. Ackerman, the United States has how many aircraft carrier Strike Forces 11? Yep, that's right. Don't ask the Marine about aircraft carriers, but yes.

5:34Okay, but is that the right footprint? Given what you've written about the world we're living in, is that the right footprint? We're going to let the Admiral chime in here as well, but is that the right footprint? If you're going to redesign the American military today, is that what you'd be doing? I think we are at a moment of real existential change militarily. I also work as a journalist, Anthony. And I just came back from Ukraine and they are fighting a radically different war there. It's a war that's equal parts 20th century conflict, all is quiet on the Western front and trenches, but also could equally be starship troopers.

6:12It is also very high tech. So this merging of high tech and low tech is something that is going on right now across militaries. And it should be forcing us to rethink how we fight and probably rethink how many, how reliant we are on our carrier battle groups. Admiral, you want to chime in there? I do. I agree with Elliot. And I'll make a very practical point. The Black Sea fleet of Russia has now lost almost 40 % of its pre-war ships, despite the fact that Ukraine doesn't have a navy. Ukraine has taken them out with cruise missiles, drones, unmanned surface vehicles. So you've got to question the survivability of those huge aircraft carriers.

6:52And we have a lot of defenses around them. But if it were my choice to make, I wouldn't be building$10 billion aircraft carriers. I'd probably take that$10 billion, divide it up, make very capable, smaller size ships that can be stealthier and be more survivable than I think current conditions warrant. Okay. So again, staying on the existential side, we have this conflict in the Ukraine. I'd like you both to chime in on this. In 1994, the Ukrainians gave their nuclear weapons up. President Clinton said, we're going to give you security guarantees, but you got to give your weapons up. They decided to give their weapons up.

7:33I think we had something called Operation Porcupine there for a while where we were supplying them with lots of deterrent-like weapons. What happened, guys? What happened? Did we slow down the arms? What happened to Operation porcupine and now make the case to the American people why we need to be supplying them. This is sort of like a lend-lease from the 1940s. Make the case. I'll take a crack at that. I think the large case of why we need to be supplying them is that, you know, this is, and that's an argument that's been made, but this is a conflict and aggression in the region that if it goes unchecked would be like a contagion and disrupt Europe in ways that we as Americans will be paying for.

8:15Maybe not in two years, maybe not in three years, but certainly within five or six years. European stability, European economic stability is the same as American stability. And then briefly, how did we get here? I think just through a certain degree of complacency. It's been a very, very long time. There's been a land war of this size in Europe. And I think for many Americans and certainly for many Europeans, it seemed unimaginable up until the very moments and hours before Putin launched his invasion. Can I just add, and Anthony, you're the macroeconomist here and global investor, but we don't have to imagine what it would be like if we allowed Russia to simply sweep across Ukraine and take it.

8:57There would be knock-on effects, and the global economy would suffer significantly. And again, we don't have to imagine it because we saw all this happen in the late 1930s when we failed to stand up to Nazi Germany, we failed to stand up to the Imperial Empire of Japan. We had come home at the end of World War I. We rejected the League of Nations. We erected massive trade barriers. How did all that work out? Well, you can drop a plumb line to the Second World War, 80 million dead. And the consequences of ignoring a festering problem like this are pretty clear in history. Okay. So listen, guys, I mean, one of the reasons why I wanted to have you on, that's about as articulate of a list of reasons why we have to be in the conflict.

9:44And so not to make this political, but why can't we get that out there more? Why can't we get out there that the notion of five to 7 % of our military expenditure without the loss of American soldiers, servicemen and Marines, et cetera, to put a hurt on a group of people that we know is expansionist. What am I missing? Can somebody chime in? Because obviously, I'm a failed political apparatchik. You know, I got to stick to business, but you guys know politics better than me. What am I missing? Why have we not been able to make this case successfully to the American people? Well, I think sometimes if you look at the history of American politics, and particularly American interventions, you know, we and our system of just our system of government lends itself to more short-term decision-making.

10:32You know, we think in two-year election cycles. I don't say that to be, you know, pejorative. It just is how it is. So trying to convince the American people, hey, we need to do this so that in maybe five, six, seven years, we haven't seen Europe go the way it went in the 1930s, and then we have to cross the Atlantic and intervene. You know, it's sometimes more difficult to connect those dots, and particularly at a time when we're coming off of 20 years of war in the Middle East. So, So, you know, the American people are smart and I think they can't connect those dots. And I mean, and the one thing I would add that makes it sort of unique is that I think national identities are often formed by national antipathies.

11:08So there's something there's nothing more American than knowing that the Russians are up to no good. So we sort of we get this one in a way we wouldn't maybe if it wasn't Russia invading Ukraine. But still, it's as we're saying, it's an uphill fight to keep people focused on this conflict outside the two year mark. I would only add to that. And Anthony, you're the master strategic communicator, truly. It's a skill you have. I asked Donald Trump about that. I don't know. I mean, I got fired after 11 days. That's your badge of honor. But the point is the White House, the current White House, needs to be pushing this more into the conversation, needs to get more surrogates out talking about it.

11:45And the point you made a moment ago, which neither Elliot nor I did, but you're right to bring it up, is how small the cost is here. The Ukrainians are asking for$50 billion. The Europeans have already kicked in$50 billion in the latest round. So we'd be matching the Europeans. It would keep the Ukrainians in the conflict another two years. I guarantee you Putin can't survive that. And the bottom line is$50 billion. Yeah, it's a lot of money. OK, our defense budget is$900 billion. The European collective defense budget, second largest in the world, is$320 billion. So can we find 50 billion, please, to stop this challenge in Europe?

12:30I think we can. And I think we need articulate spokesmen to get out and talk about it. I'm going to test something on both of you. Joseph Stalin, he was interviewed in the 1930s by Henry Luce. There was a rise of Nazism going on. This is after Hitler rose to power. And Joe Stalin told Henry Luce in no uncertain terms that he was going to splinter and destroy the United States. And Henry Luce said, well, how are you going to do that? And he said, well, we're masters at manipulation. We're masters at propaganda, disinformation, cleansing pictures, and you guys are a mongrel nation. You're not tied to a bloodline.

13:10It's really just an idea. It's nothing more than that. And we're going to get you hating each other. We're going to make it very tribal in your country and hopefully it'll splinter the country and cause a second civil war. Luce went back, wrote about it. Didn't happen. Our grandparents happened to love the country. They got here as immigrants. Then the war started to galvanize the country. and there was one piece of weaponry though that Joe Stalin didn't have, and that's social media. And so you guys know there are server farms all over Moscow that are pumping out toxic information into the West, France, UK, US.

13:44You write a little bit about the AI stuff that goes on in 2054. Is Joe Stalin right? Can he help? Can the Russians, we've got tribal issues without the Russians. Can the Russians and their propaganda, the Chinese or their propaganda put a hurt on this beautiful idea known as America? I worry about it deeply. I do not despair about it. As Elliot said a few minutes ago, the American people, given time, will figure this out. And in terms of social media, the social networks, yes, it is a new lethal weapon. And of course, Putin is taking a direct page out of Stalin. Putin is watching what China is doing to a lesser degree at the moment, but he is seeking to divide us.

14:34And I think it will take some hits, will feel the pain, as you said, it'll put the hurt on us. But I remain cautiously optimistic. And in the end, 2054 is a cautiously optimistic book, because all these technologies from the printing press to electricity to today, artificial intelligence, all of them had potential for both good and evil. I'm going to bet on America. And I always say to my European friends who say, what the hell is going on over there? I say, give us a few more years. Don't bet against us. Yeah, well, listen, the tax, I mean, some toxicity has been created, particularly, you know, you know, on the extremes of these parties.

15:17OK, so I'm not going to indict one party over the other. We'll just say that there's extremes on both sides. But you have a president in this book, 2054, who is ironically named Castro. I love you guys for that because obviously I love – I've been to Havana a few times and we've got this president Castro. We also have a current president that's 81 years old. He's running for reelection, and it wouldn't be undiplomatic for me to say that he is probably frailer at 81 than he was at 65. Let's just put it that way. But you have something going on with President Castro, and obviously you can't ignore the coincidence there.

16:00So tell us a little bit about President Castro without giving up too much of the plot, what happens to him, and unroll it for us a little bit so we can get people appetite wet for this amazing book. Sure. Well, when 2054 opens, obviously, we're two decades after the end of this calamitous war with China, and they've been pretty tumultuous. And so politics in America has changed. And following current trends, what we see is that the Republican and Democratic parties, which now today in America are actually two minority parties, the majority of Americans identify with neither party, they've continued to bleed membership.

16:38And for their very survival, the extremes of the two parties, like you talked about, Anthony, they have to merge, and they become what's called Democratic Republicans, which was actually an early party in our country's history. And not without precedence. You know, let's remember the Democratic Party not too long ago was a coalition that included Northeastern liberals and Southern segregationists. So the fringes of the two parties merged together. And then you have a very charismatic, independent president, Angel Castro, who runs, who wins, and basically gets the country back on its feet after the war.

17:09But somewhat problematically, like many leaders, they don't like to let go of power. So Castro, when we meet him, is scheming to extend out past his normal two terms in office. This is very, very controversial. And when the book opens, he's giving what will be the first speech in his new campaign, and he drops dead at the dais, apparently from a heart attack. But we talk about social media and the splintering of American society, immediately different narrative lines start emerging as to what happened to Castro. And there's one particular piece of technology that gets in the mix, an idea of remote gene editing that could be involved in his mysterious death.

17:51So Jim, I mean, it's amazing. It's amazing plot. Okay. And I, I can't wait to read the third book. But Jim, I got to ask you this because I've heard you be interviewed on this. Your peers and your colleagues are saying, you know, wait a minute, Admiral, this is going to happen a lot quicker than 2034 and 2054. What's your reaction to that? I think there could very well be truth in that. Let's take both cases. 2034, we chose because that's where China will have amassed enough power to significantly militarily challenge the United States. You'll hear people say it's going to come in three years or five years.

18:30I just don't see it that way as I look at those economic trends. And I think over the last 24 months, we've seen the softening and the weakening of the Chinese economy and many of their positions. So it's a matter of debate. I'll stand with my 2034 date. However, 2054 in the two years since Elliot and I really wrote the book. Now, if I had it to do over again, I might very well pull that forward because you see this acceleration in AI unfolding right in front of our eyes. So I'll stand on 2034. 2054, yeah, a fair number of people have said, I don't know, Jim, it's not going to be mid-century before that scenario starts to unfold.

19:13Elliot, you want to add anything to that? No, I would just say, you know, I think in all of these, and we're looking at events that there's some complacency. It's been a long time since the United States has faced a peer level adversary in a war. It's been a long time since we've had a president pass away in office, whether of natural or unnatural causes. But these are all crises that chances are we'll live again and see again in our lifetime. So Elliot, this question is for you, you know, because I get a lot of writers that are listening to open book. And so they, they want to hear from authors.

19:52How do you tackle the research and writing process? And did you always have this kind of a vivid imagination? I'll start with the first part of that question. You know, I think we, you know, we talk a lot about what the, you know, for these books, we talk a lot about the subject matter. And then, you know, you just, you start reading and you, and you read and you learn till where you get to a point that you feel like your knowledge can support the story. And as you're moving through the story, if you feel like you've got gaps, you do a little more research. Or what's great in our partnership is we bat these drafts around.

20:22So as opposed to when I'm writing books on my own, when I'm writing them with the Admiral, I can just sort of put in a section that says, write interesting thing about AI here, and he will fill in the gaps for me. So we do that. And I think, yeah, I've always been a reader. I've always loved stories. So I'm very happy with what I do now. Yeah. The only thing I'll add to that is my best fill in so far has been when Elliot wrote, describe massive war at sea. And then I did. But Jim, just when I think I'm reading enough, I think of you and I say, oh man, that son of a bitch start reading. He's reading more than me.

21:00I got to open up another book. Okay. You wrote a great book a few years ago called The Leader's Bookshelf. What are you reading now, sir? What's on your nightstand? Yeah, at this minute, I am just finishing a very thick work about navies at sea. And it's a novel by Mark Halperin. He wrote A Soldier of the Great War. And it's called The Sea and the Stars, pretty evocative title. And it follows a Navy ship through combat in the Arabian Gulf. It's some of the ideas we've talked about, about new technologies at sea. So it's called the sea and the stars. Yes. Mark Halperin. Okay. All right. Well, thank you for that.

21:47We're getting, unfortunately, to the period of time here where what I do with my authors, and I'd like to get this reaction from both of you, I have a couple of words I spit out and then my authors react to those words. Okay. So Elliot, when I say America, you say what? Don't bet against us. Okay. What about you, Admiral? I say the tragedy of democracy is that in the end you elect the government you deserve. It's a quote from de Tocqueville. Okay. Let's avoid that tragedy. I say China. You say what, Elliot? Pay attention. Okay. Biggest challenge we face in this century. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Singularity.

22:34This is a, this is for young listeners out there. Ray Kurzweil wrote a book about this saying that we're going to fuse the machinery with the human being. And again, I don't want to give away this plot, but there's some amazing things that you're saying in here, which are not necessarily fiction. They're near nonfiction, meaning they're about to happen here on planet earth. But I say singularity, Elliot, what do you say? I say robots will inherit the earth, but they will be our children. Okay. Admiral, you're worried? The singularity is not near. It's here. Okay. Amen. Well, that's a good spin because that's the title of Ray's book.

23:14I read that book almost 20 years ago now, and I was like, all right, it's not going to happen. Here we are, and it's happening, right? So democracy, sir. Elliot, democracy. The worst form of government as opposed to all the others. Yeah. Churchillian? I'm going to echo that. That's what popped into my head. It's a quote from Churchill. Okay. Conflict. I say conflict, you say what? Coded into our DNA. No, that's unfortunately true. Changing every minute in front of our eyes. Okay. How about these two letters? AI. Now, AI used to mean alternative investments for somebody like me, but AI now means artificial intelligence, Elliot.

23:57it. What do you say? Coming fast, fast, and faster every single day. The world is unprepared for the arrival of AI. Okay. Climate. I think the third challenge in our series. Climate is the ultimate problem that we can only solve together. Right. Now, listen, I'm with you, Ben, you're a seafaring person, so you can see it from all over the world, the impact that it has. Okay, these are the last three. Then I'll let you find gentlemen go. 2024, Elliot. Going to be quite the year. Yeah. See, I like fighting, so it's going to be a great year for me. I mean, it's going to be a lot of fun for me. What about you, Admiral?

24:45Stay out of Washington, D.C. Yeah. Yeah, I don't go. I mean, listen, I could only last 11 days there. I get highs when I enter the beltway. You have to worry about that. But I think we have to have a say in this fight. 2034, Elliot. Also going to be quite a year. I think the world will be radically different by 2034.

25:102034 is the point at which China potentially has the military capability to go toe to toe with the United States. Okay. So if I make it, I'm not saying I'm going to, but who knows? If I make it the 2054, I'll be 90. So let's say 2054, Elliot, what's going to happen in my 90th year? I'm lucky enough to make it. The world will start feeling a lot more like science fiction. Okay. Admiral? 2054, I will be there to see it personally. Okay. So the singularity is here and you - We'll get you there. You believe we can get there. because of what's happening from a biotechnology perspective, from a genome perspective, you believe that we can get there.

25:56I do. And I also believe that by 2054, I'll have a full head of hair like Anthony Scaramucci. I want your hair to be thicker than mine. Okay. I'm starting to lose it on the top here. My son told me, dad, you don't have a forehead. You don't have a five head. You now have a 10 head. Is that a nice thing to say to your dad? Very, very hurtful. Guys, it's phenomenal to talk to both of you. The title of the book is a very simple title. It's 2054, but I'm going to recommend to viewers and listeners, please buy 2034 because they go well together and you won't stop reading till you get to the end of both of them.