The War Is Lost

30:43And 52 countries said, no, no, no, you cannot do that. That wasn't a war of choice. This Trump decided to do. I was happy he chose it. But I'm under no possible illusions that this was something that needed to be done. So if it were done, it were better, it were done quickly and had to be won. You couldn't lose. You couldn't do this and lose. And he is losing. And you may not think that the deal is going to go through. And you may want to see the memorandum of understanding. But then I see J.D. Vance on CBS this morning saying the following. Asked by CBS. The Iranians are saying they're going to have access to a$300 billion reconstruction fund.

31:24Is that true or false? And this is not quote. We can pause it here. He's upset that J.D. Vance said here. You can close it because we'll play the J.D. Vance clip in a sec. But anyway, the reason I understand that was a bit long there, but there's a few things that are just so fascinating in all of this. I mean, number one, man, did I tell you the lobby was going to turn on Donald Trump over this? I mean, this is if you don't finish this for them, you're not useful anymore. They got no sense of honor or loyalty or, hey, you tried for us or something. That's not how it works. They're they're going to be pretty brutal.

32:02But number two here is that there is just this. Well, look, part of this, he's kind of right in a way like there's there is truth to what he's saying, like, hey, yeah, you went all in on this, dude. You can't do this and then lose. So, OK, there. But then you also you get a glimpse into like the truly psychotic neoconservative worldview. And this is why so many of us, you know, are just just hate the neocons so much because they're just literally they're like agents of destruction. I mean, there is bad there is bad as any jihadist that you could imagine. I don't care if they, you know, whatever, you know, if they if they went to college and they wear suits and ties.

32:54I mean, they just advocate for death and destruction all the time. By the way, Rob, this was always what they would say about the war in Iraq. We just should have surged more. And the problem is that we didn't surge more. The problem is we didn't have enough will. The problem with Syria was that we didn't flood more weapons in. The problem with it, it was always like we could have done it, but we just fell short. Still to this day, David Wormser talks about how if we had installed a Hashemite king, it would have worked in Iraq. And so it was the right move. We just didn't, you know, the liberals got all weak in the knees and didn't follow through.

33:30But what they just can't acknowledge is the obvious reality. You know, it's like he's saying, hey, I was with Donald Trump launching this war, but you can't stop short of winning. But the obvious reality is that you can't win. How about that? Maybe you just couldn't win. Maybe we didn't have the ability to do this. What is he really talking about here? invade Iran, boots on the ground? How many boots do you think we're going to need? Like the entire military? You know, I just, I don't, the bottom line here, and he's going, oh, they got access to this$300 billion. It's like, yeah, I mean, it looks like the only way Donald Trump could even bring them to the negotiating table was to basically say, I'll give you all this money.

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35:31That's right. Ring in the summer with health care that puts you first. Joincrowdhealth.com. Promo code POTP for less than$85 a month. All right. Let's get back on the show. Any thoughts, Rob? Yeah. I agree with him once again where he says that this was a war of choice. And so if he was actually an intelligent individual at the outset of this war, he should have said, hey, listen, this is a war of choice. And if we're going to fight it, we need to win it. And the only way to do that is with boots on the ground. And I don't think the country is willing or able to make that sacrifice right now. So it's a mistake and we're better off with the deterrent threat of what us engaging with them might look like.

36:11And that will give us more leverage. And that's what he should have said. but apparently he supported the war at the outset because he wasn't smart enough to forecast hey we don't actually the country does not believe enough of these lies that they're willing to actually back this war and so therefore it's a bad and you know what i mean you guys are just bad at this i mean if that's actually your worldview and your strategy of this was a war of choice and if we fight we have to win it then you and the other neocon should have spoken out against this three months ago and been smart enough to know oh we're not actually going to have a full ground invasion this is bad strategy but you guys didn't say that instead you went with the israeli talking points and he hoped that you would pull us into a full mess and now you're upset that you didn't get it yep yeah you're upset that you just got a little catastrophe and not a bigger one um all right let's uh let's go to um all right i guess we should go to to trump next because donald trump did speak uh to the press today that's still greatest deal and they're going to get a bomb.

37:12Everything's amazing. You'll find out in a couple days. It is. It really is something. Here, let's go to the... People can't handle that much good news all at once. I got to wait a week before I give it to you. Without me, there would be no Israel. Natalie, let's go to that clip here of Trump today in the White House.

37:35Are you frustrated with that youngster? No. We have a great relationship. we're talking about he makes the sweetest love to my butt in details i didn't like that he did an attack based on a i'm sorry i'm sorry you know what natalie you know pause this for a second i'm sorry i said the the wrong one let's let's go to the why not release the text first and then we'll do the the netanyahu one but i went ahead it's the other uh yeah this is the one i wanted to play first because this was really fun the text of the document why not why not release the Oh, I will. Well, because I'd like to get a formal setting first before we do that.

38:14But I have no problem with that. It's a good document. Here's what it says. Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. That's what it says. It won't have one to buy, to develop. They will not have a nuclear weapon. And I would say that's about 99.9 % of what I wanted, because we couldn't let that happen. You couldn't let that happen. And they won't have a nuclear weapon. But now, in addition to that, the strait is going to be open toll free. And it's toll free beyond the 60 days. It's not somebody said, oh, it's toll free for say. No, no, it's toll free, period. When it opens permanently, it'll be toll free.

38:53I want to congratulate our Navy because the naval blockade was unbelievable. But I will actually, I'll not only release it, I'll probably have a press conference and read it to you word by word. so that the press covers it accurately because it's a very important document. It's a very important document, Rob. Then you will see it at a time to be announced. I gave Iran everything they wanted. They might not even sign it, so I don't want to read it to you before they say no. I mean, dude, he says, and then just to fall back on, I'll tell you what it says. It says that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon, and that's 99.7 % of what I wanted.

39:39It's like, okay, that's what the JCPOA says. That's literally the start to the JCPOA. It's also what the non-proliferation treaty, what you signed on to. But okay, so that's 99.7 % of what he wanted. In addition to that, he gets the Strait of Hormuz open. Like, so what you got is what we had before the war. That's what, it's not even, he's not even, like, okay, Rob, right now there's some questions about what the Iranians are claiming versus what they actually get, right? Because the Iranians claim they get that$12 billion right up front and like guaranteed access to the$300 billion. So we'll see what happens with all that.

40:22Donald Trump isn't even claiming anything else. What he's claiming we get is what we had before the war. That's what he's claiming. he's not even making any claims like that you know directly about anything else um and as you notice there he doesn't go to enrich uranium or proxies or missiles or regime change or any of that he doesn't have that to brag about which really is something uh a lot of work and a lot of news coverage to end up in the exact same place is kind of the donald trump way yeah policy there's been a bunch of them. This, this is Donald Trump, as much media attention as you can get to end up just spending some money and ending up in the exact same place.

41:05This is the worst one. This is the worst one of them all though, man, this is it. You're right. It follows that same Donald Trump template, but this is the worst version of all of them here. Okay. Let's go to the Netanyahu one. Cause this, this was a, a, an interesting clip here, Rob, because of course this is the big question now going forward. It's as we've seen already with the pod hearts video as we've seen with mark levin and ben shapiro as we've seen with netanyahu and ben gavir and the the next 60 days or plus 64 days or whatever this is going to be about the israel lobby versus the trump administration now things have changed and we're going to see who can get their way anyway here let's play the clip trump's asked about his relationship with bb

42:16Are you frustrated with Ned Young, sir? You know, you can do too much also. But we've had a very effective relationship. Without us, without the United States, there would be no Israel. Without me, there would be no Israel, because no other president was willing to do what I did. I've had a great relationship with Bibi, but now Bibi has to be more responsible with respect to Lebanon. Lebanon used to be a great country. It was a country where you had professors, doctors, lawyers. The great intellect was in Lebanon. Now it's just, it's terrible. I would say of all countries, they've been treated the worst.

42:59And they can't defend themselves. And they have Hezbollah, which is a problem for them. So, no, I'm not happy with the way Israel has handled themselves with Lebanon and with Hezbollah. they should have been able to do this yet faster it just goes on forever and when that happens it throws a negative light on the big deal and that's the deal with the rent so so uh when you asked me about bb an unbelievable relationship but israel would have been blown up a long time ago had i not gotten involved so there you go rob an unbelievable relationship but you'd be dead without me um and uh yeah donald trump somewhat critical of the way that uh um bb netanyahu has been conducting the war in lebanon uh yeah i don't know any thoughts well you gotta love the endless counterfactuals you guys already owe me your life quit complaining you'd be dead if i hadn't done it same with our country our country in europe everyone would be the iranians could have killed everybody but only because donald trump's targeted strikes and i guess them fearing him and wanting to restrain themselves uh are we alive and honestly the fact that we ever criticized donald trump with all these counterfactuals on the table it's on us we should just realize that we'd all be dead right now i you know covid would have killed us too if he hadn't gotten that uh that uh that vaccine out it's just pure it's just pure counterfactuals i guess if you want to throw up claims without any evidence to support them whatsoever then yes Donald Trump has already, already saved us.

44:40And so we should be more gracious for what he's done, even if we can't see it or understand it. Almost like God in a way. I will say, hold on. I'm sending another clip to you, Natalie, here, because I think this was the one. He said some more stuff on the same topic that I wanted. But yeah, there is something about it, man, Rob, where, you know, I mean, I guess, right, it's the moral of the boy who cried wolf story. and it's the reason why a father tells his son that like your word is your bond you got to keep your word it means something if you say something to someone if you say I'll be here at this time if you say I'll give you this if you give me that that you stick to it is because um well on top of it being the right thing to do it's it's also the moral of the boy who cried wolf is that you're going to need your word someday, you know, someday you might really need people to take you at your word and be careful before you blow that thing out.

45:38And I know Donald Trump, you know, his, his fans can always say like, oh, well, you know, you can't take them literally. I understand that argument, but at the same time, it's like you get to a point like right now in negotiations, his word means a lot. It's very important. We're relying on that. And yeah, that's the way he goes there'd be no israel it would be destroyed it's always i know i remember in the biden administration when there was no israel you know up until trump came around there just wouldn't be in israel here anyway natalie let's play this other clip because i think it had um the the part i was looking for israel's fighting israel are too long and too many people are being killed and you don't have to knock down an apartment house every time you're looking for somebody because there are a lot of people in those apartment houses and they're not all hezbollah that i can tell you and i suggested to israel to let syria take care of hezbollah because to be honest with you i think they do a better job of doing it all right pause it there pause it okay so first of all because this came after the last clip i thought this was attached to it But so now here he says, Rob, this is Donald Trump goes.

46:53And, you know, by the way, dude, they're bombing a lot of these apartment buildings and you don't really need to take down a full apartment building to get one Hezbollah guy. Now, do you like this? I just thought was kind of amazing because you're like, wait a minute, Donald Trump. You think Israel is a little too heavy handed in Lebanon? And he said this thing about how the people of Lebanon have been treated the worst. and you're just like dude this is i don't know there's just something about the insult after genocide to the people of gaza who are can you imagine being a resident of gaza and just hearing him talk about this like that and you're like did you not you funded them the whole time that they did this but how about this rob at the end of it there he throws to maybe we'll have al-qaeda handle it for us maybe you know what dude is this is literally i'm not making this up donald trump just pivoted from, you know, the IDF is a little bit too brutal.

47:50We might have to hand this off to Al Qaeda to somebody who we can trust to fight with a sense of honor. The goddamn Amir of Al Qaeda who he put in charge of Syria. Well, to translate what I see as the dynamics, I don't know where this Donald Trump was for the last year. I don't know why Donald Trump was just rolling over for Israel, particularly when Netanyahu had thrown him under the bus in the last election. Yeah. But then something happened after he was shot at and met with Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago. I don't know if it's the donations that came in or he suddenly doesn't care about the blackmail they have on him.

48:28I can't tell you what is changing here, but it does appear that Donald Trump is actually ready, willing and able to suddenly criticize Israel as he tries to get them to back off Lebanon so he can actually walk away from this war. And yes, if he's criticizing the bombing of innocent civilians in Lebanon, then that is a new policy of Donald Trump that Israel should not be murdering innocent civilians. And what he's channeling to them is I will raise more of this concern unless you stop doing what you're doing. And I mean, the shift in policy and tone and treatment of Israel, if Donald Trump wants to turn this hard against them, if they don't get online is pretty incredible bullying.

49:12It's pulled. It's pure Donald Trump bullying. Like it's like if somebody was like, you know, getting mocked for being fat online, Donald Trump will always be like. And, you know, a lot of people are saying he's very fat. No, I don't know. I didn't say that. But like he's intentionally bringing it up. He's intentionally letting you know that he can tap into that energy. Yeah, that's right. But it's interesting that he's doing that there. And then it is nothing but like a real insult to just go, maybe these Al Qaeda guys in Syria, they could handle it better than you guys can. You know, just nothing more than that.

49:43But let's play the end of this here because he does get in another comment about Syria, which is pretty wild. I think where two hours before we're signing the agreement that there was an attack in Lebanon, in Beirut. It wasn't like in the southern side, you know. It was in Beirut. I did not like that. I let them know that. I didn't like it, not at all. But I think that Syria, you know, he's pulled that country together amazingly quickly. He's very capable. And he's been very good for me. He's protected everything that I've asked for. He's done. And if Israel can't do the job without killing everyone else, he'll do the job.

50:31Syria will do the job. Yeah. Now, isn't it something, dude, Rob, that here he is. He's bragging about this former Al-Qaeda leader, Jelani, in Syria and what a great job he's doing and how he'll do the job for him. And he gets into there at a different portion. how much one of the things he likes about them is that like that he they're not friends with Hezbollah and it really is just something to just go that like it's just going through the like oh yeah how much that regime change there was so we could put enemies of Hezbollah in charge of Syria even if those enemies Rob happen to be Al Qaeda the enemies of the United States of America But that's not enough.

51:18That's not enough for old BB. All right, guys, let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show, which is Indicloud. Indicloud is the online dispensary. If you are 21 years of age or older and you're looking for a dispensary, you don't have to find a brick and mortar anymore. You can just check out Indicloud. Indicloud, they got everything you need, particularly stuff for the summer, energy gummies for surviving overloaded summer schedules, THC sodas for staying social without overheating yourself, extra strength sleep gummies for fully shutting your brain down at night. They've got absolutely everything you need.

51:55So once again, if you are over the age of 21, go check them out at inda.shop slash problem, and that'll get you 30 % off your first order. This is the online dispensary. It has everything you need. Again, if you're over the age of 21, you can get 30 % off your first order at IndaCloud with promo code PROBLEM at inda.shop slash PROBLEM. That's I-N-D-A dot shop slash PROBLEM. Promo code PROBLEM for 30 % off your first order. All right. Let's get back into the show. Anyway, so there was Donald Trump. Let me see here. what was uh oh i'm almost debating on which one of these i'd want to go to okay yeah let's go to um the first one i sent you today natalie which was jd vance he was this morning he was on fox and friends this is the uh the quote that um pod horitz was referencing and i did think that it was worth um playing so yeah let's uh let's let's do that and then if we have time we'll go to the the the Hannity one that you sent, Rob, which is great.

53:03Here, let's play this one. It's clear that they respect the commander in chief. Yes, they do. And Iran respects our military because of what we've been able to do. Some of the things that we're hearing about, we haven't seen the text yet, but just what we're hearing, that the deal would end all sanctions and all waivers. I'm hearing that it will be downblending, but not destruction of the nuclear dust. And there's no closing of the nuclear facilities. and they hope that there's no nuclear weapon for the next 15 years. There's also strong language about stopping funding the proxies, but it says in the deal that Iran has to use its best efforts, not stop it completely.

53:43There's also the$300 billion in reparations that's going to come from Qatar and some of the Gulf states, and then$24 billion in unfrozen assets. Is any of that true? and if it would be true, would that concern you? Yeah, so most of that is basically Iranian propaganda, and you have to understand what's going on here, okay? So the Iranians have just had their conventional military destroyed. Their country has totally changed. They have a totally different leadership than they had even three months ago. And so what is happening is that some elements in their society are trying to sell this deal as positively as possible to their domestic audience.

54:18Now, that's expected. It's frustrating to me, but that's expected. What is a little unexpected and more frustrating to me is that you see certain people in the American media literally recirculating hardliner talking points from the IRGC instead of telling the truth about what's going on. So first of all, not a single cent of money goes to pause it real quick, $300 billion. Pause it and just bring it back like five seconds. Um, Rob, isn't it so funny to just criticize people in the media? So essentially you guys are claiming there's a deal. Iran goes yeah there's a deal and then the Iranians say what's in the deal and you say we can't show you what's in the deal and then you criticize media figures for reporting on what the Iranians are saying is in the deal well then what else are we supposed to go with and you know if it's Iranian propaganda you notice he didn't specifically point out what was Iranian propaganda in any of those claims and so uh yeah anyway here it's incredible to me that if in three days the exact details are coming out and all this stuff is true he's willing to go on this media tour and make claims like this to look like an asshole in three days i don't understand this uh administration's willingness to lie to win the news cycle for a 24-hour period as if three days in the future isn't coming.

55:39Yeah, very strange. All right, let's keep playing. Line are talking points from the IRGC instead of telling the truth about what's going on. So first of all, not a single cent of American money goes to Iran, not$300 billion, not$24 billion, not any of the money, the dollar figures that I've seen floating around. Number two, this is a firm commitment backed up by verifiable action to never develop or buy a nuclear weapon by the Iranians, which, remember, that was the whole point of this entire operation, is to ensure not just that Iran wouldn't have a nuclear weapon for the next couple of years, but that they would make that long-term commitment.

56:18Now, here's the important part, though, is there are benefits to Iran if they perform their end of the obligation, not money from the United States, but maybe Qatar or the UAE or Saudi Arabia, maybe they want to invest in Iran and build a power plant. The United States, our approach to that is going to be, yeah, you can do that so long as the Iranians are behaving properly. But if they don't behave properly, they don't get. All right. So here you can pause it there. All right, Rob. So listen, first off, let me just say, um, because it's almost more important than even the analysis or breaking down what he's saying here, because it's so ridiculous.

56:52And this is just such, it's so childish to even take this. Like, um, it does, it reminds me of, there was this bit that they did on the office with a Will Arnett when he came in and he was interviewing to be Michael Scott's job was open and he's interviewing for it. And he goes, I have a four point plan that'll double your quarterly profits by next year. And they're like, oh, that's amazing. What is it? And he's like, I can't tell you. He goes, I mean, if I told you, then you could just do it without me. So you got to hire me and then I'll do it. And they're like, okay, but you got to give us some of the plan.

57:23He's like, well, hire me. And then you'll get the plan. Like I have a plan. It's like, if you won't tell us what the deal is, then you're just sitting here telling over. And then you're saying, yeah, but the best part of this deal is that Iran only gets this money if there's enforcement. Yeah, but enforcement of what? All you said here is that they can't develop or purchase a nuclear weapon. So if they just do that, you're enforcing that. What they've done this entire time. Like, what does that mean? You know what I mean? The devil's in the details here, and you're not giving us any of it. But Rob, as you pointed out at the very top of the show, this pathetic change to...

58:02No, first of all, I've seen these$24 billion,$300 billion figures. None of that. First off, there's no U.S. money is going into that. So I don't know where these figures come from. Yeah, but no one claimed those figures were U.S. taxpayer dollars. The$24 billion is frozen Iranian assets. And the$300 billion is a reconstruction fund that they alluded to. And so even if you're saying it's not U.S. dollars that go there, but this deal does give them access to these dollars, that's the whole point that you hawks have been running with this whole time that it doesn't matter money's fungible it's money going to the biggest state sponsor of terrorism or whatever so it's just it's ridiculous to watch them change this uh the standard here just completely abandon the talking point i mean hey it's good that they're abandoning it it was bullshit to begin with but at the same time to say no it's different because it's not u.s dollars we're just giving them access to money, but only if it's verified that they followed something that we're not going to tell you what it is they need to follow.

59:07Like he didn't say it's tied to them diluting their enriched uranium. He said it's tied to them not getting a nuclear weapon. What does that mean, Rob? Pretty vague. Yeah, well, listen, we're going to see what even comes to fruition. And who knows? Maybe this deal is better than as being projected or painted. But it feels like We're just back to the Donald Trump standard that when Obama gives them$1.7 billion, their money back, it's the worst disaster ever. And it's a pathway to a bomb. When I give them$12 billion in their money back. Well, this was only their money and it's not going to be used for a bomb.

59:41And you can trust that they're never going to get a bomb. It's just, it's, it's just back to the Donald Trump standard. Well, since Donald Trump said it, it's accurate. Same as why I'm so gracious that Europe still exists and that Israel is still on the map because Donald Trump said that they wouldn't exist. unless previous actions that had already taken. So if you're living your life by the Donald Trump standard, then yeah, I guess the money going over now when it's through Donald Trump is not a problem. It was only a problem when Obama did it. I'm telling you though, man, this is another prediction I've been making this whole time, but I said that even if Donald Trump comes back now, he's still ruined and he's not going to be able to sell this and this is not going to work.

1:00:19I mean, don't get me wrong, Rob, it'll work with like a small enough percentage, but Donald Trump, this is, he, he's going to get beat up on this dude. Before we leave, I have to play. You said, I did not see any of this until you sent it over Rob, but here was JD Vance was on Hannity last night. Let's just go to the YouTube video that Rob said in the, in the email, Natalie, but just, let's just go to the second clip. It was a 12 minutes, 25 seconds. It's just the two of them, even to Hannity's audience, the way they're trying to sell this is really something. Let's play. The president always says, Sean, do we trust anyone?

1:00:53No, we don't trust anyone. We do verify and we do extend this hand and say, look, if you guys are willing to change, we're willing to change how we've dealt with you two. Let's talk about any place, anywhere, anytime U.S. inspectors. That's part of the deal. Yeah, that's absolutely something that we are negotiating over, Sean. That's one of the final details that's going to be figured out here is if you go back to the original Obama JCPOA, there are a couple of big problems with it. Number one, by the way, is that the Gulf Arabs hated. You just pause it. Pause it already for a second. It's just everything.

1:01:26I just love that Hannity. I don't know why even Hannity had this in his mind, but he just goes and like, like he almost said it like he was selling the deal. Like he said it in like a WWF like promo cut, but he goes and also Rob US inspections anytime, time, anywhere, any place, intercontinental title on the line, you know, just anywhere. And then JD Vance just has to hit him with the, well, that is exactly what is TBA in the second phase of this memorandum. Like once you get the memorandum, there'll be something in there about how there's a new phase of negotiations. And that is exactly the type of thing we'll be talking about.

1:02:15yeah so in other words no no you didn't get that you did and um look man i mean there's a whole lot of interesting stuff here about what look there's a i'll say this almost like before maybe we wrap up here i'll say this and then you can have the last word rob but there is something where one of the possibilities that's beginning to emerge here right is that the iranians are describing the deal as something very different than what the americans are describing it as right now. As we pointed out on the last show, and I think was implicit in this show, even what they're describing, forget what the difference is.

1:02:50What they agree on is essentially an admission that we lost this war. But there's still, now it's possible that the language of the memorandum of understanding is going to be somewhat vague on some of this stuff. Like even as you hear J.D. Vance describe it, you're like, this all sounds very vague. What exactly does this mean? And then you're going to be in this area where both sides can claim for the next 60 days that they're not following through. This wasn't really the deal. That wasn't the deal. And so it'll be interesting then. Who knows, Rob, we could get we may not get this memorandum signed.

1:03:25We might get 30 days into this and Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz again because Israel's bombing Lebanon or because they say the Americans aren't giving them access to the money or who, You know, so many questions. It's still a big mess. The one thing that's clear is that we never should have launched this goddamn war and we lost it. Anyway, final thoughts. One more option is the language is vague. And then Donald Trump goes, I tried everything I could to make a deal. We can't reason with them. And then actually bombs them into oblivion. But it was funny watching this interview because by the end, Hannity's having a hard time selling it.

1:04:00and it's a bitter pill to swallow. And he even concludes with, you know, I'm having a hard time. I always thought that these guys were the worst people ever. And so I hope you guys are right. It's something along those lines. It's basically the way it concludes. That is something. All right, listen, we will catch you guys tomorrow. Brand new episode. Thank you for watching. Come on out. Denver, Colorado this weekend. Really looking forward to seeing, seeing some great people out there. See you. See you this weekend. Comic Dave Smith dot com. Peace. Thank you.