'Intelligence FAILURE!' Professor Jiang vs Andrew Bustamante On Iran War

0:01This episode is brought to you by Google Chrome. You think you know a browser, but Gemini and Chrome? That's new. It can help you with practically anything on the web, like restoring a vintage motorcycle from a 50-page restoration block, or finally break down that long article you've had open for weeks. Gemini and Chrome is here for it. Ready to make anything online make sense? There's no place like Chrome. Check responses set up required, compatibility and availability varies 18+. The two most sophisticated militaries in the world attacked Iran, and it's still there.

0:31Professor Jiang:I still believe that eventually the United States will be forced to use food on the ground. I don't agree with that. I believe that Donald Trump moved on Iran, not just because Israel sold him a false bill of goods, but also because he was looking for a very short, quick political victory. If Democrats were to take the House in November, Donald Trump would actually be under more pressure to use ground forces. otherwise he could face impeachment. At the core of it, I see it as an intelligence failure. Whenever you're in a position like that, you're going in essentially blind and you're going in kind of like the pit bull on the leash for somebody else.

1:05Professor Jiang:For Israel to fight the war alone in the Middle East would be suicidal. Israel really needs America to fight this war on their behalf. And I think that the most obvious is going to do whatever he's told to do.

1:17Piers Morgan:Well, the Iran war is at an end, at least in theory. the US strikes this weekend, sparked by Iran's ongoing control of the Hamus Strait, were a reminder that nothing is settled definitively. Both of my guests today made huge predictions about the outcomes and consequences of this war, one using real-world intelligence experience, the other a pedigree in modelling and game theory. I've invited them both back on to review how they did, and more importantly, ask them what happens next. Joining me now are Andrew Bustamante, the former CIA covert officer known as the everyday spy, and the game theorist and academic Professor Zhang.

1:50Piers Morgan:Welcome back to both of you. Professor Zhang, let me start with you. You made a lot of claims, really, towards the very start of this war. You said that regime decapitation would fail, which is pretty much what's happened, that America would become bogged down in a drawn-out conflict. So, so far, pretty good. You also said that the US would eventually have to put boots on the ground to achieve its goals. That hasn't happened. and we would hope it wouldn't. So when you look in totality at your gut feeling about the ways to play out, I mean, you're not far wrong. And I think the only reason the boots on the ground hasn't happened is because Donald Trump has realised this was an awful lot more difficult than he first imagined and that actually if he was to commit boots on the ground, it could turn into a complete disaster.

2:41Professor Jiang:No, you're absolutely right. Boots on the ground would be a disaster, But I still believe that eventually the United States will be forced to use boots on the ground. In fact, you can argue that there's been a lot of preparation. You still have 60 ,000 American troops ready to go. They are staged and ready to go. And even though there's an MOU, they're still there. And you can also argue that the MOU is really just buying time. because right now it's really hot in Iran. And so you have to wait for cooler weather before you can launch a ground invasion. And so I think we are in a waiting game right now.

3:25Professor Jiang:But eventually, you will see boots on the ground.

3:27Piers Morgan:So you think it will definitely happen?

3:31Professor Jiang:I think the latest will be next March. It could be as early as December.

3:35Piers Morgan:But why would Donald Trump take that gigantic risk, which is what it would be? I mean, doesn't all his behavior at the moment suggest that he just wants to get out of this?

3:47Professor Jiang:I think the United States is stuck in Iran right now, because if the United States were to withdraw from Iran, then Iran would control the Middle East. The GCC would have to pay rent some huge reparation to Iran. And so they can no longer recycle U.S. dollars back into the U.S. economy, which feeds the AI bubble. And you could see a complete economic collapse if that were the case. So the Americans are just stuck where they are right now.

4:19Piers Morgan:Andrew, welcome back to Uncensored to you as well. Sporting a new haircut, if I may be so bold, as to censor on that immediately. Looks good. I appreciate it. Trying to look like you, man.

4:35Piers Morgan:Look, it just seemed to me from very early on in this war that the... I've referred to this a lot, but I'll do it one more time. The New York Times had a big deep dive quite early on about a meeting between Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House Situation Room, where the head of Mossad beamed in remotely, and they laid out a series of events to Donald Trump and all the top Trump administration people, which was started with the removal of the Ayatollah to kill him and some of his top people, and then there would be a chain of events that would be provoked by that. The IRGC would collapse from within, the people would rise up, and they'd all be too distracted to notice what was happening with the Strait of Hormuz.

5:16Piers Morgan:Well, the first bit happened to a degree, albeit the Ayatollah's been replaced by his even more radical son. But none of the rest of it happened at all. And in fact, far worse, I think, for Donald Trump and for Netanyahu, the Iranians quickly worked out that the control of the Strait of Hormuz could just hold the entire world over a barrel, quite literally, because it would control the flow of 20 % of the world's energy. And then if they also fired off some missiles and rockets at their neighbouring Gulf states and caused economic mayhem there by doing that, then they really held a lot of the cards, to quote Donald Trump's favourite phrase in warfare.

5:56Piers Morgan:When you look at this, do you think it was just a case, not of Trump being told what to do, but that of him just buying into this playbook, which then just didn't materialise? Yeah, I think there's a there's a number of overlapping intelligence issues here. And at the core of it, I see it as an intelligence failure. First of all, the fact that the United States didn't have our own intelligence infrastructure to the point where we could see the holes in Israel's assessments and estimates, that's a major problem. It means that we went into Iran basically following Israel's guidance, following Israel's intelligence, following their targeting packages instead of our own independent intelligence assessment.

6:39Whenever you're in a position like that, you're going in essentially blind and you're going in kind of like the pit bull on the leash for somebody else. And I think that's what we saw happen very shortly after the promises that Israel made didn't really pan out. Now, where we are today is stuck in the same situation where we still don't have an intelligence network. We still don't have independent intelligence telling us what we can assess and what we can estimate, what we can predict inside Iran. And that's why we're still stuck in this quagmire. We have an MOU that doesn't give us any of the outcomes that we strategically promise the American people.

7:16And the MOU isn't working. We still have there's no active cessation of attacks. they've just decreased, they've changed, but it's still happening.

7:25Piers Morgan:Right. And Professor Zhang, you know, the big goal in the end, which was explained after weeks and weeks of getting nowhere with the others, Donald Trump said, right, this is all about stopping the Iranians having a nuclear weapon. And yet they still got all their enriched uranium. I mean, I think the only way that can ever be got by America or Israel is with ground forces. So I think on that alone, that that's clear. But the Iranians have also started talking openly now about the need to build a nuclear weapon, to have one. That actually what this has taught them, if people are wedded to the annihilation of all of their regime, then they need a nuclear weapon to defend themselves.

8:07Piers Morgan:And perversely, it could end up creating a situation where the Iranians actually want to develop something that maybe three months ago, four months ago, they liked to saber-rattle about, but weren't actually going to do. Right.

8:25Professor Jiang:So before the war, the Iranians had a religious fatwa banning the making and use of nuclear weapons. So the Iranians were committed not to building a nuclear weapon. With enriched uranium, Ted Posto, who is an MIT professor, He says that it'll take them exactly six weeks to build a nuclear weapon. So if the Iranians had the will, they could build a nuclear weapon. So if they were attacked with a nuclear weapon, then they would respond with at least 10 nuclear weapons. That's how much they can make with their enriched uranium. So it's really a quagmire for the United States. Now, I would say that this reporting that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon, it's actually false.

9:14Professor Jiang:There is a religious fatwa in place and it has to be overruled by the new Ayatollah and that's a very long process. And quite honestly the leaders don't really need a nuclear weapon at this stage.

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10:47Piers Morgan:And I'd be astonished, given the long and unillustrious history of this regime, if they didn't use that to maximum leverage effect. Why wouldn't they? Yeah, you're exactly right. And what we've seen is that Iran has managed to turn this conflict into the most significant blow against the United States that any country has been able to execute in many decades. Not only does the United States look like it's in the pocket of a much smaller, more kind of unpredictable country, Israel specifically, not only has this separated GCC allies from the United States, the UAE has dropped out of the oil consortium.

11:27Not only do we see that the closest Western allies in the world, in Europe, have distanced themselves from the United States. And that's not even counting how America looks at itself through the lens of politics and identity and global leadership. So just simply by surviving, Iran has shown that small can be powerful and that the United States can be overcome, possibly even defeated. Because if the Ayatollah stands, if the Iranian Republic continues to persist in Iran in its current form, if we reach the end of this war, what was it all for? And it shows that they won. And if that doesn't inspire and encourage and maybe even provoke countries like North Korea, Cuba, continue to encourage countries like Russia, China, other adversaries competing for global dominance, I don't know what will.

12:25Piers Morgan:Although it's interesting, Professor Zhang, to look at what's happened in Ukraine, for example, where everybody assumed the Russians would just run Ukraine over pretty quickly. I think Russia assumed it would do it very quickly. That hasn't happened. And we are many years into that war. And in fact, you know, you could argue Ukraine now is not just putting up a good fight, but it's giving Vladimir Putin quite a bloody nose. It's proving to be very costly in both Russian human life and on the economy there. It's an interesting thing to look at and say, well, you look at what's happened there, and it may fly slightly in the face of what Andrew just said, but maybe if you're China, you look at what's happened in Iran, I think there's an opportunity for you there, maybe with Taiwan or maybe to strengthen ties with Iran, whatever it may be.

13:18Piers Morgan:And at the core of it all is a kind of battle for energy. I mean, energy is going to be powering the new arms race, which is AI. And the winner may well take all.

13:33Professor Jiang:Well, you know, people argue that this war was started in order for America to force the world to buy American energy. Because right now, if you look at the global map, the only reliable source of energy now is the Western Hemisphere. Right. Because Russia is losing this war in Ukraine or is facing a stalemate, depending on which side you're on. Ukrainians are striking deep into Russian territory and hitting oil refineries. And so it is reducing Russia's capacity to export oil. The Middle East is on fire. Before Qatar could provide 20 percent of the world's LNG. now it's completely offline. So if you're Japan, who do you turn to?

14:18Professor Jiang:You can't turn to Russia. You can't turn to Qatar. You can't turn to the Middle East. So therefore, you're stuck buying energy from America. So you could say that even though America is losing this war in the Middle East, they ultimately will be the big winner because the world is now completely dependent on the Western Hemisphere for resources. Andrew, what do you think of that? I think that there's a couple of kind of fundamental, I don't want to call them mistakes, but foundational assessments that we're missing here, right? First of all, comparing what's happening in Iran to what's happening in Ukraine isn't quite a straight analog because the whole world rushed to Ukraine's aid.

14:58They received hundreds of billions of dollars, weapons, intelligence support, satellite imagery support, not only from the United States, but from Great Britain, from France, from Germany, from across Europe. So the whole world was required to prevent Russia's progress in Ukraine. And what you see from Zelensky still to this day is the continued request for more support and more money and more training and more everything to continue to prosecute this, what was framed to us as a fight to protect democracy. That's not what we're seeing in Iran. Iran has largely stood on its own strategy and its own weapons reserves, on its own capabilities.

15:39Now, yes, it has tapped into Russian intelligence and it's tapped into very likely Chinese support also, but it has stood on its own two feet since we launched that first attack. Not just the United States, but in joint concert with Israel, the two most sophisticated militaries in the world attacked Iran and it's still there. So that's a little bit different. Now, Professor Zhang's assessment that the United States has created this requirement for Western Hemisphere resources, this is right out of American Strategy 101. America tried to be, America was and has been for a long time, the world's leading innovator of technology.

16:17And that's how it created a premium pricing model that drove the largest economy. The whole focus on conserving and protecting the Western Hemisphere and their focus on Cuba now still to this day emphasizes the same thing. They want to control resources so they can put a premium price and control distribution around the world. And that's the model that countries like China are trying to emulate so that they can compete in that economic world. Whether or not it's successful with the taking of President Maduro and the unlocking of oil reserves in Venezuela accessible to the United States is yet to be seen because there is a huge amount of oil reserves in the Middle East.

16:57Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE are sitting on large oil reserves. And as long as the Straits of Hormuz are blocked, correct, that oil is strictly not going to go anywhere quickly. But as soon as even Saudi goes outside of the United States and reaches its own agreement with Iran or many of these countries that are paying the toll, people are finding a way around following American leadership in this. And that's not a good thing for American people.

17:24Piers Morgan:And just on Professor Zhang's point about it's inevitable that ground forces will have to be committed at some stage. Do you agree with that? I don't agree with that. And there's one major reason why I believe that Donald Trump moved on Iran, not just because Israel sold him a false bill of goods, but also because he was looking for a very short, quick political victory, something that could be framed to the American people to show that the Trump White House was the best White House, the strongest White House, the most powerful White House. And that hasn't happened. So not only has the opposite kind of shown, not only do we see major Trump supporters backing away from Trump and Trump voters backing away from Trump, but we also have this question of what's the next two years going to look like.

18:08And if we do see a change in the Congress during the midterm elections, then it's going to be even more difficult for Donald Trump to execute his wishes in the Middle East. So it's going to become not only politically difficult, but militarily difficult and legislatively difficult to move troops into the Middle East, especially enough to actually execute the change that we're looking for. Professor Zhang, your response to that? Yeah.

18:36Professor Jiang:So first of all, you're assuming that if the Democrats take the House in November, they'll be staunchly anti-war. And there's actually no evidence that the Democrats are anti-war. In fact, the Democrats have enabled this administration's war making. So I think that if the Democrats were to take the House in November, Donald Trump would actually be under more pressure to use ground forces. Otherwise, he could face impeachment. He would need a distraction.

19:12Piers Morgan:So what would be, in your eyes, what would be the purpose of committing ground forces? Would it be to affect regime change or would it be to get the enriched uranium? What would be the mission?

19:26Professor Jiang:The mission would be to force Iran to a political settlement. So right now there's an MOU, and there's a sticking point in the MOU, which is Lebanon. The United States has basically given Iran a lot. It's a very favorable deal for Iran. So the United States promises to, you know, lift sanctions, give Iran control over the Strip Hormuz. So it's a very favorable MOU. But there's a second point, which is that Israel must withdraw from Lebanon. And Iran is very insistent on that because Hezbollah is a very close ally of the IRGC. Now, what the Americans believe is that because the terms are so favorable, the Iranians are willing to compromise on this Hezbollah issue.

20:16Professor Jiang:And the IRGC has shown these past few days that they're not willing to compromise. So another strategy is basically to force a military solution. And you do that by eliminating Iran's proxies in the Middle East, which includes Hezbollah, the Hufis, and the Shia Malaysias in Iraq. And then you dislodge IRGC from the Shredder Hormuz, which is a main negotiating chip of the IRGC. Now, these past few days, we've seen massive movements on all fronts. So Saudi Arabia is rallying tribespeople, arming them to march against the Houthis. There's this crackdown in Baghdad. They call it corruption crackdown.

20:56Professor Jiang:But it's really the Iraqi prime minister consulting power. And it's possible he moves against the Shia militias at some point. The big flashpoint, of course, is Lebanon. So recently, under Marco Rubio, Israel and Lebanon have come to a peace treaty, and this could provoke a civil war between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government. There's talk of ISIS coming in from the north, from Syria, and then Israel is going to extend its southern offensive. So I see this as a coronate attempt to destroy all of Iran's proxies at once. There have been some multiple aerial strikes against the ROG's positions in the Shelf of Hormuz.