"Israel Is DESPISED!" Trump's US-Iran Deal Threatened By Hezbollah Strikes

12:51Piers Morgan:Where does this leave America post the war? Stronger or weaker than they were before? Well, I mean, it's clearly weaker.

12:57Ian Bremmer:I mean, it's not so much the cost. It's more that the Americans went into this war by themselves. And they're taking air capabilities, naval capabilities out of Asia, out of Europe, to have more capacity in the Middle East. Again, they're doing it without asking permission, without coordinating with the allies. So allies of the United States around the world look at America and say, you're very unpredictable. You've just caused massive damage to our economies. You're unreliable. I was just in the Dominican Republic two weeks ago. You didn't think I was going to mention that?

13:31Piers Morgan:I did not.

13:31Ian Bremmer:All of 11 million people in that country saw all their CEOs, spent a lot of time with their president, who I like a lot. And his popularity went from, by the way, he's on the right ideologically, and he has a really good relationship with Trump. I mean, he doesn't have a he doesn't have a melee relationship, but a quite good one. And his popularity went from 70 to 55 percent over the last several months because inflation for a country that has big subsidies for importing all of their oil is a huge problem. Why? It's not his fault. It's purely the United States deciding to go into this war. And there are leaders around the world.

14:09Ian Bremmer:There are not just five or 10. There are literally over 100 leaders around the world that feel exactly the same way. If you think that this is a problem for Trump in the midterms or Trump in the Republicans or Trump and his popularity politically in the U.S., that's tiny ball compared to how the rest of the world that's taking it in the teeth feels on the back of this decision.

14:32Piers Morgan:We've got the G7, obviously, this week. Geopolitically on the big global scale, has there been a shifting sand here this year, particularly in terms of America's relationship with Europe? Completely.

14:45Ian Bremmer:And I mean, yes, on Iran, of course. Yes, on this well-begotten Greenland issue. Yes, on trade. Yes, on Russia, Ukraine and the Americans pulling back from providing any direct support as the Ukrainians are fighting courageously and well, as you and I have both watched and talked about. And most recently, you know, the issue that I think is dominating G7 conversations right now is the United States government deciding to put export controls on Anthropic and not allowing them to export their latest model fable to anyone. I don't care who you are as an ally. And the Europeans, so worried that the Americans have a kill switch for any critical technology that they can just shut it down.

15:29Ian Bremmer:It doesn't matter how important it is to you, and you will have no say. You'll have no influence. You'll have no input. And the Europeans, the French have Mistral. it's a rounding error in terms of its net value compared to anthropic or open AI. The Europeans are panicked about this. And they're right to be. They're right to be. So I think the transatlantic relationship is under an enormous amount of strain right now.

15:52Piers Morgan:Elon Musk, a trillionaire. Yeah, yeah. A good thing? A terrible thing?

15:57Ian Bremmer:Well, first of all, as an American, I'd much rather Elon be in the U.S. as a trillionaire than in China. And the Europeans aren't making any trouble.

16:08Piers Morgan:Is he a force? I mean, the argument for him is he's obviously a genius and incredibly driven. And he's built these amazing companies which do a lot of really good things. I mean, Neuralink and SpaceX and Tesla. You can see a narrative of doing good for the world.

16:25Ian Bremmer:And the Russians would still be winning if it wasn't for Elon. Right.

16:28Piers Morgan:The downside is what he does with his Platform X. and in particular how he wields his 240 million followers. At the moment, he's been very actively engaged, for example, in the UK, amplifying the far right, Tommy Robinson. AFT in Germany. Restore AFT in Germany. And that is, many think, a malevolent use of his power.

16:50Ian Bremmer:Doge was unsuccessful. One of the most unsuccessful things Trump did, certainly domestically, meant to cause efficiency, ended up the US spending a lot more money and the things that were shut down were not strategic. and caused problems, and a lot of people probably dead around the world. Ebola, much less effect in responding to it because of things that the Americans have unilaterally shut down. You throw the baby out with the bathwater, that's bad. Look, on balance, I am not someone that has a problem with someone starting a company and building extraordinary wealth. The amount of jobs created, the amount of economic gains created, those things are fantastic for humanity.

17:28Ian Bremmer:But I will tell you, I worry that in my country right now, the number of Americans that feel that way is far, far smaller than when I was younger. Not because they don't like people being rich, but because they think that they no longer have opportunities themselves. They see that the U.S. is shutting down, you know, whether it's funding for public schools or, you know, challenges on your pension, your Social Security. We're not going to have enough. but these guys seem to have access to power, spend$250 million more than anyone else on the election, and he's standing next to Trump all the time and getting all sorts of subsidies, government contracts, and the rest.

18:06Ian Bremmer:People don't feel like it's okay. They think that a billionaire is a policy failure because they don't think they can become one. We used to have a country where 90 % of Americans thought they could make it to the top 10 % if they just worked hard. They knew their kids could, And that's what attracted immigrants from all over the world. We no longer have those numbers. We used to have class mobility numbers that were the highest of the entire OECD. The U.S. now has less class mobility than the Brits. Than the Brits? You guys have the House of Lords, for Christ's sake. How is it possible that the Americans now, the best indicator, the best predictor in the United States compared to other OECD countries of whether a child will become wealthy is their parents' wealth?

18:51Ian Bremmer:That's not America. That's not what this country stands for.

18:54Piers Morgan:Put your little crystal ball on. Midterm elections. Do the Republicans lose the House and the Senate?

19:02Ian Bremmer:Clearly they lose the House. They lose the House easily. Senate's going to be very, very close. Trump's made a big mistake in supporting Paxton in Texas. You remember, he lost the Senate for the Republicans after losing the presidential election. Said Georgia, the state of Georgia, it's been rigged. And they had two special elections for the Senate. And he said, don't even show. Don't go. And so, consequence, the Democrats took both of those seats, flipped the Senate. Because he obviously didn't care about the Republicans if it wasn't about him. He's doing it again. So, I mean, the Democrats benefit from the fact that Trump doesn't seem to care about the midterms very much.

19:38Ian Bremmer:Having said that, the Democrats also have vulnerabilities in some of these states. You've seen all the flap about Graham Plattner in Maine, won the primary, but has a lot of hair on him in terms of whether or not people are going to turn out. So I think you've got to take four seats to swing the Senate. That is a very, very significant climb. But Trump's approval rating is right now around 38, which is the lowest of either of his two administrations. It will help that this agreement, if it holds, holds. Because gas prices will go down and people see that every week when they're pumping up their big SUVs.

20:14Ian Bremmer:It's expensive. It's the big reminder. It's the big reminder. But he is so far underwater and November is coming soon. I think the Senate is close to a coin flip. I don't think anyone has a, if it's not a coin flip, it's 40, 60 or 60.

20:29Piers Morgan:And in January, 20, 29, around January the 21st, who's in the White House?

20:34Ian Bremmer:That's going to be 25 people running from the Democratic side. One of the Democrats? I don't know. I don't know. Look, I think that, I think right now, first of all, it's way too early. People, when you asked folks, this stage before Obama was elected, People didn't even mention Obama as a name. When you ask people this early before Trump's first election, no one thought Trump was remotely plausible, right? So I think we don't know who that person is going to be. I know that technology is going to be an incredibly important issue. Backlash. I think corruption is going to be an incredibly important issue.

21:08Ian Bremmer:Backlash. I suspect that the Democratic candidate will be more from the left than the center. And I think that the right is going to be wide, wide open. It's who Trump wants, but it's also like if you're J.D. Vance today, very difficult position to be in. How do you avoid being Kamala for Trump?

21:27Piers Morgan:Right. I don't know how you do that. I think it's hard to do. And also whether Trumpism itself isn't as a as a theme survives Donald Trump himself as president.

21:37Ian Bremmer:I know. And I think it does. But I don't think it's Trumpism.

21:40Piers Morgan:No.

21:41Ian Bremmer:Right. Like for I see Tucker Carlson and I see him talking anti-corruption. I see him talking about Epstein. I see him going after Israel. I see a whole bunch of America first-ism that Trump kind of gave up on. He's still on the border security.

21:55Piers Morgan:I can see Tucker Carlson. I can see him running. I can see him becoming president.

21:59Ian Bremmer:It is not implausible. It is not implausible.

22:01Piers Morgan:Anything can happen. Ian Bremmer, one thing's for sure. You will be a constant source of wisdom for me as we try and straddle these complex international issues. Thank you very much. It's nice seeing you in person. Go England. I hope you have a good cup. I hope you do very well, America. until you play us. And I hope we back to you.

22:17Ian Bremmer:Fair enough.

22:17Piers Morgan:And just get revenge for what happened 250 years ago because trust me, we ain't celebrating that quite like you guys are.

22:23Ian Bremmer:Well, you're not having the UFC on the right outside 10 Downing Street? Yeah, no one's doing that, I assure you.

22:28Piers Morgan:We're burning effigies of George III, trust me. Good to see you. Good to see you. Joining me now is the international affairs scholar, Jeffrey Sachs. Jeffrey, welcome back to Uncensored. Great to be with you, Purs. Thanks a lot. Where are we with this deal, do you think? So many competing views about it. My gut feeling is that Donald Trump was just desperate to get out of this Iran war. It has spiraled way out of his control and that he'll just do anything it takes to extricate the United States from it. What's your reading? I think that that's exactly the right reading. This was supposed to be a one day affair.

23:08February 28th, 2026. They would kill the supreme leader, decapitate the government, take over Iran, and we'd all live happily ever after. That was the Netanyahu-Trump delusion. It failed. And since then, we've been basically in a situation where the United States could not impose its will. Iran has retaliatory capacity until this moment. The world energy crisis continued as long as this debacle continues. And I agree with you, Trump wanted out. And I think with a very fragile, fragile basis, we might just get out of it. Israel will do everything possible to undermine this agreement. It already has started with new attacks in southern Lebanon.

24:05But Trump wants out and he's been uncharacteristically clear with Mr. Netanyahu in recent days and hours not to screw it up.

24:20Piers Morgan:I mean, we've got two elections coming this fall. One, the U.S. midterm elections, which Donald Trump would have been acutely aware, were becoming a massive problem because a lot of pressure from his Republican Party. to sort this mess in Iran out before it caused even more political and economic damage. But you conversely have the elections looming in Israel in October, where Netanyahu is really unpopular right to the point he's judged on what he's doing to defend national security in relation to what he's doing in Lebanon or Iran or wherever it may be, which many people believe is one of his motivating factors in continuing to be so aggressive on that stage.

25:07Piers Morgan:Do you think that's accurate? Do you think that the political expediency for both men here has played their part in reaching this point now where they have to potentially go their separate ways? Well, I think Trump was accurate when he said a few days ago and then confirmed the quotes that were made by Axios that he told Netanyahu, everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel now. This is true. But this is Netanyahu's doing, of course. So I hope we see the end of Netanyahu's political career in their elections. And I think that it's very likely that Trump will soon be a lame duck president in the United States in the sense that the Democrats will win at least the lower house of Congress, and all eyes will immediately turn to 2028, and Trump's own ability to stay clear of scandals, crises, and Congress will also be brought to an end.

26:14So I think for both politicians, this was a terrible debacle, probably worse for Netanyahu. This was his dream war. As he told us at the very beginning, at the first day. This was his dream war for 40 years. He tried to talk every American president into it. Trump was the only one gullible enough to fall for it. Trump fell for it and the disaster is on both of them.

26:44Piers Morgan:Where does it leave the Middle East, Jeffrey? Well, it leaves the Middle East in a kind of limbo. Everybody understands the United States is no real security for the Gulf countries, certainly. Iran remains with a powerful military, a technologically sophisticated military, an ability to launch hypersonic missiles to protect itself and to retaliate against Israel. So this is a change. And of course, I think Israel is, of course, despised by just about every single country in the world. And a recent Pew survey has shown that they have earned it themselves. When it comes to the United States, Trump is pretty much despised almost everywhere in the world as well.

27:43And the sense of the United States as a real ally has disappeared even in Europe. But I'm sure that in the Middle East, they're trying to figure out what the hell to do. And of course, there's no question that because of this, the place of China, the place of Russia, the place of other regional powers will be stronger. And the sense of the United States as a very powerful, rather erratic, politically unstable one of many countries rather than the global power is now, I think, the reality for everybody with their eyes open. In other words, the days of the U.S. being the unchallenged dominant power, which was always true in Washington's eyes, but was also to an extent true in many other eyes.

28:48This war has accelerated the end of that idea as well.

28:56Piers Morgan:Is the big winner in the end for this Iran war China?

29:03China is, as we could see, again, very cautious, very stable. They have their own interests without question. In the midst of all of this, Trump went to Beijing and basically heard a lecture from Xi Jinping. And after he heard the lecture, he basically agreed with the lecture. He left Beijing saying he doesn't want Taiwan to do anything unsettling, much less to declare independence. He doesn't want a war with China. And he also has held in an abeyance the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. In other words, we also saw the limits of American power vis-a-vis China in the last two years. Last year, the U.S.

30:00tried a trade war against China. It lasted about 24 hours before China matched and raised, met and raised the U.S. moves, and the U.S. backed down. China had too much leverage, the rare earths and other leverage. So the U.S. lost the trade war. The summit that took place showed the limits of power there. The events in Ukraine are showing the limits of American power in Eastern Europe. The events in the Gulf are showing the limits of power in the Gulf region. Now, mind you, the U.S. remains a very powerful country, a rich one, one that has a lot of sway. But it is not the world's unipolar power.

30:53It's not the world's hegemon. and the limits of American power, I think, are now very clearly in view. And to my mind, this is very realistic and just fine, by the way, because so much of the damage in the world was U.S. wars of choice that created a mess. And maybe the U.S. will reconsider next time someone comes in and says, hey, why don't you try a one day war with us? Maybe they'll have a little bit more self-restraint.

31:30Piers Morgan:Where are we with energy? Because I don't think most people outside of the kind of, you know, really hardcore, knowledgeable energy experts were quite aware of just how much of the global energy the Iranians had potential control of? And now, of course, everybody does, including the Iranian regime, who realized that it became their most potent weapon, was the control of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly when coupled with letting off a few missiles at their Gulf state neighbors. Obviously, if they want to, they can pull that leave or whenever they see fit. What happens to global energy in light of that?

32:15Piers Morgan:I mean, are you going to see countries like Saudi and states like Saudi and others now try and create a separate place outside of Australia for moves to try and do business? I mean, what will be the practical reality of this war? Well, I think the fundamental longer term trend is to accelerate the fundamental move away from coal, oil and gas to wind, hydro, solar, nuclear power in some cases, given all the complexities of that issue. But the idea is that for years, many people said that the move away from fossil fuel was important to save the planet Earth. Then, because of China's advances in technology, more and more countries came around and said, you know, it's actually cheaper.

33:09It's not just grid parity. It's actually cheaper to go with larger solar fields, for example, because China had knocked down the price so dramatically. Now there's another argument in the air. I hear it everywhere, actually, in in the last weeks, which is that it is now a matter of national security. to use one's own sunshine coming in, to use one's own wind, maybe to tap into the hydropower of the next door neighbor and so forth, but not to rely on the long distance transmission or trade in fossil fuels. So there's a national security argument that has been added to all of the other arguments.

33:58And I was on a call today in Asia with several governments and multilateral development institutions talking about the accelerated move to basically renewable energy as the backbone for a lot of East Asia. This is going to happen. That's a longer term proposition. But I think a lot of governments are, even in recent weeks, turning their attention to what can we do to harness our own energy sources.

34:34Piers Morgan:Yeah, I think you're right. Jeffrey Sachs, always great to talk to you. Thank you very much. Pleasure to be with you. Thank you.

34:42Piers Morgan:Well, joining me with his analysis on the U.S.-Iran deal is Robert Papp. He's the professor of political science. Robert, welcome back to Uncensored. Thanks for having me again. What is your take on this apparent resolution to the Iran war, which we're going to see signed and sealed, according to President Trump, on Friday? I think we're celebrating too early. I understand why we want to celebrate early. It's been incredibly painful and it looks like more pain is coming and we'd like that relief. But the fact of the matter is we're heading into an incredibly contentious 60 days. This is a period of time where open warfare can break out at literally any moment.

35:29And for a whole variety of reasons, this can be because of Israel. This can be because Iran doesn't get its$12 billion. And these are multiple reasons. But the biggest issue that I think is being left out of the analysis here, Pierce, is the stakeholder of the shippers. The people who have to take the risk are basically being left out of this whole conversation. And they're now coming to the floor. The New York Times giant story about this, not a surprise. They're saying, we're not going. So it's one thing for you and me and everybody else to sit here and say, oh, sure, those ships, just go ahead, take that risk.

36:08You know, 14 of them have been killed, by the way, already. So we need to understand. They've been bottled up, essentially, in solitary confinement virtually for, what, 108 days now? So let's understand the idea that they're going to do this. And what do they want? They want an ironclad promise from Iran, not Donald Trump. Nobody trusts Trump on this. Not the UAE. They want an ironclad promise from Iran. they're not going to get killed, or when they go in and out, Iran's not just going to bottle them up again, because Israel is going after all those reasons that you just went through with your other guests.

36:49The bottom line here is everybody is celebrating too early. We are not at the end game. And I'm glad to tell you when we know we're going to be at the end game. I've been modeling this for 20 years. We're at the middle game of the escalation trap. And this is a point where the two sides don't even agree on what this MOU means. They say they initialed it, but they're making it quite clear they don't agree on what it means. And then over time, peers, what's going to happen is Iran's leverage is going to grow. Because you see, over the next 30 to 60 days, the world is still going to draw down those oil inventories, because it's going to take 60 days before the ships actually get the stuff to the refineries.

37:32So that means by the time the 60 days are up, all those cushions are at zero, Piers. That's what we're facing. And Iran's leverage will grow. And what happens when states' leverage grow? Typically, they want more. And there's more that Iran is likely going to want that they're already signaling. Yeah.

37:57Piers Morgan:I mean, I just think that's inevitable because we were told that Donald Trump said back in March. The only deal that will be acceptable is total surrender by the Iranians. Well, obviously, we're a million miles from any total surrender. You've got the slain Ayatollah's son, who's more radical than his father, who we believe is still alive and will be taking over from his father. You then have the same regime you had before, albeit they've lost a few people, but they've replaced them pretty quickly. The people seem to still be under the control of the regime, hence the lack of any uprisings or protests of any significance.

38:37Piers Morgan:And just crucially, as you've touched on there, the Iranians have realized suddenly the enormous power and potent weapon that the Strait of Hormuz represents. And as long as it represents 20 % of the world's energy flow through this tiny area next to Iran, then they're going to wield enormous power. And they know that. And they also know that Trump and Netanyahu are facing elections, which may decapitate their political power anyway. So there's no incentive for them to do anything quick. Why would they? Nothing in their history. It took Obama two years to do his deal with them. The idea this is all going to be over in 60 days is for the birds.

39:22That's right, Piers. And just take this one more step further. What that means is the L's on Trump's back are going to add up and keep going. You see, Iran, again, they said they want their$12 billion. Then their$24 billion. J.D. Vance said, oh, no, no, no, you can't have it. Well, they're going to keep demanding, and they're probably not going to give the shipping companies the assurance they want here. So what that means is, Trump, there's going to be more and more pressure on Trump to pay up, either the Qataris or the UAE, to help Trump pay up. Then if Trump pays that, there'll be more pressure for Trump to pull his forces out.

40:04Because as the deputy prime minister of, foreign minister, excuse me, of Iran has made very, very clear in the last 24 hours, what they want is U.S. forces out, you see. This isn't just about a little bit of more money now. This is about Iran on a trajectory to gain power. I believe Iran is using negotiations, Piers, as a power strategy here. They're not trying to get out and get peace. They're trying to get power. And I think that they are heading in that direction. And what that means is more and more else for Trump. So does he just then accept that he looks weaker and weaker over time? What does Trump tend to do when he looks weak, he goes and kills somebody.

40:53Okay, he lashes out. We've seen this. He wants to trend or a rock. And this is going to be a real test for this escalation trap in the next two months, because the glue that has the pressure to keep returning us back to the warfare is that fear of looking like the loser, that big loser. And what does Trump have as the card to play? He's losing now, has become quite clear here as time has gone on. So what is his card? His only card is really the use of force, which he goes to quite often.

41:31Piers Morgan:Yeah. And of course, at the same time, you know, it's already a very unpopular war. The first war in modern times where the American people in a majority are negative against it, have been since the start, and that number's only increased. And the people that have been cheering Trump on the loudest, the neocons on the right in America, the Israelis, they're now beginning to get angry with him for what they see as a bad deal that plays into Iran's hands. So Trump's personal popularity is likely to get more and more unpopular, I would think, because even people have been supporting him the most are turning on him.

42:11So how you would know, Pierre, is we're getting to the endgame of the escalation trap. How would you know that? And this is important for our troops, if nobody else, is that we're actually withdrawing our forces. So remember, we put in the biggest armada here since the 2003 Iraq War. So we moved a whole lot of forces to the Middle East. That's Air Forces, Naval Forces, 10 ,000 ground forces that are dedicated to actual ground combat missions. Well, once those start to come out, like take out the 5 ,000 Marines, the 5 ,000 airborne troops, move them out of theater, once the aircraft carriers go back to other oceans, once the destroyers start to leave, this is how you would know that the endgame is truly there.

43:01And this is going to be a real problem, because if Trump does that, then who's going to claim victory? The Iranians. That's what I mean by the problem of this going forward domestically for Trump. And I don't mean with Democrats, and I don't mean with independents. Half of MAGA, as you well know, is not going to be happy saying they're going to back Trump, even though he's a loser, on the Iran situation. That's a lot for this going forward. That's why I believe Trump's been bouncing back and forth. One day he talks peace, another day he talks bombing. Some days he does peace, some day he does bombing.

43:39Why is that? I believe it's his domestic political base and MAGA is divided. So Trump is divided. And I don't think MAGA is going to unify over the next couple of weeks or a couple of months. In fact, Iran is likely to push its margin of advantage that's gaining, as I said. And it's going to make it even harder for this. So I think, and by the way, one more point, all the oil execs, we had a big meeting at the University of Chicago last week. They're all telling me that as these oil inventories run dry, and this would be even if the straights opened today fully, what's going to happen is the price of oil is going up anyway at the end of July and beginning of August.

44:19So this idea that it's just a downwards trend like that, this is not taking seriously the end of the oil inventories, the demand that always goes up at that time of year, hurricanes, the things that already come up, that's what they're already projecting here. And Iran, this is all mana from heaven for Iran. This is Iran's growing leverage, because what that means is in that situation, come early August, you disrupt this for just a few days here, Even if you can get it going. And oh, my goodness, this is where things get really shaky because we're out of the cushion. We've used up the gas in the spare gas tank.

45:02We had a spare gas tank. We used it. And now when you run out in the desert, there's nothing to go to. Yeah.

45:11Piers Morgan:Yeah, and we haven't even mentioned the fertiliser aspect to the Stratifor moose and the impact that will have on the food chain as the summer months approach. It's going to be quite a ride to watch. Robert Pape, thank you very much indeed for joining me. Thank you for having me, Piers. Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain. And we'll do it all for free.

45:49Piers Morgan:Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical and we couldn't do it without you.

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