“It's An Act Of WAR!” Professor Jiang vs Gordon Chang On China, Iran & Trump | Plus Robert Pape

24:18Piers Morgan:Gordon Chang, what does this all mean for Taiwan? You know, America gets bogged down in Iran. Its military credibility is damaged. Has the decision to do this given China, if it wishes, a green light to go and take Taiwan? In other words, has it removed the West's high moral ground and ability to complain if they now go and do the same thing to Taiwan, which Trump has done in Iran? Or it's obviously not exactly the same thing, but in terms of attacking. It's very different because Iran was clearly violating their obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. They attacked Israel savagely on October 7th.

25:05Iran's president in December said that there was a state of war between the United States and Iran. So, you know, it's very different. The thing about Taiwan, and yes, the U.S. has drawn down its stocks, has used them in Iran, and this does create a vulnerability. But Xi Jinping has decimated the top of the Chinese military with his continual purges. And from what we can tell, there have been people who have been Xi Jinping's loyalists who have been purged by Xi Jinping's adversaries. So there is turmoil at the top of the Chinese military. Now, to invade Taiwan, or at least the main island of Taiwan, you have to have a combined air-land-sea operation, which means you need coordination at the top of the Chinese military.

25:48And just one detail, the Communist Party Central Military Commission, which controls the military, normally had seven members on it a couple of months ago. Now it has only two, Xi Jinping and a political commissar. There are no operational officers left on the Central Military Commission, which means that an invasion of Taiwan, at least for this moment, is off the table.

26:10Piers Morgan:Do you agree with that, Professor Zhang? I think another consideration are the Japanese. The Japanese prime minister has stated that Taiwan is part of Japan's national strategic interest. And if China were to take over Taiwan, then China can impose a naval blockade on Japan. It could basically shut off the Sharia of Malacca to Japanese trade. And so this would present an existential crisis to Japan. So if there's any intention on the part of China to take over Taiwan, the Japanese would intervene. So I do not believe that in the next five to 10 years there's any consideration of an invasion of Taiwan.

26:55Piers Morgan:But it's interesting the way you described what China could potentially do, because, of course, if you're China and you're looking at what's happened with the Strait of Hormuz, that idea that you just proposed, possibly in their thinking, becomes a lot more effective, right? I mean, if they wanted to cause real economic damage to Japan and others, they could just do a similar thing over there. But China is an export-dependent economy. So if global trade stops, then it hurts itself more than other people. Simple as that. Simple as that. And the other thing, Piers, is that, yes, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan get an enormous percentage, you know, 90 percent of their energy through the Strait of Hormuz.

27:44Right now, we have these very large crude carriers in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America because they're picking up American energy from Texas and Louisiana. So that energy trade will redirect. Of course, it will cause severe disruptions in East Asia for a little while. but America has the energy to sell.

28:05Piers Morgan:Professor Zhang, is there a concern, do you think? I don't know who the concern would predominantly be with, but Donald Trump has been behaving very erratically on the global stage and been deliberately attacking a lot of his allies, from the UK to France to Spain to Germany and others, NATO. Is there a concern that President Xi starts looking like the real adult in the room and that the United States loses that role in perception globally? The Chinese are first and foremost problematic and the Chinese believe in mutual trade. And so I can see a situation in which the Europeans, the Russians, the Iranians see China as possibly a diplomatic saviour in the situation.

28:59Certainly the Chinese were instrumental in organizing these weekend talks in Islamabad. So these talks were not effective and there were no results. But we can assume that these talks will become a regular thing even as this war progresses.

29:15Piers Morgan:Gordon Chang, what do you think? I mean, you know, President Xi's been pretty quiet, not saying too much, letting this all play out. Donald Trump's been the complete opposite, rampaging around, looking increasingly like someone who's not quite sure how to get out of this mess. But if he blames enough people, eventually somebody might accept the blame. You know, is President Xi winning the kind of diplomatic war here, if nothing else? I think he's certainly winning the propaganda war because he does look stable. There's no question about that. And that's backed up by all sorts of anecdotal evidence and surveys.

29:50But, Piers, something had to be done about NATO. And, you know, as Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General, said, Trump has been great for NATO because he's gotten countries except for Canada to agree to that 5 percent GDP spending limit or floor. floor. So really, these are things that had to be done. Now, yes, you're right. Trump should not have threatened war against Denmark over Greenland, shouldn't have been making those threats against Canada. And those are not helpful. But a lot of what Trump has been saying and doing was really important because previous presidents and previous American presidents have just kicked the can down the road and let NATO erode.

30:33They let Iran develop nuclear weapons. They let this and they let that. But Trump, I think, gets credit for doing things which are politically unpopular, but I believe are necessary for the national security of the United States, but also for the safety and security of the international system as a whole. It's not just America first. This is America actually guaranteeing or creating the conditions for enduring peace in the coming decades.

30:58Piers Morgan:I mean, that's assuming any of this works. You know, I would say the problem with that argument is I can see why this is all in Netanyahu and Israel's interests, because they just want to do as much damage in Iran as they can possibly do. And they found a president that will help them do it and smash it all up. But in terms of the American national interest here, if ultimately this gets resolved with Iran retaining its enriched uranium, with the regime still in place, albeit with different members of it at the top, with the people not rising up in the way that the Israelis had assured the Americans would happen if you decapitated the Ayatollah and the leadership.

31:39Piers Morgan:You know, of all these things, if that's how this plays out, and the Iranians have learned that they can strangle the global economy at any moment through the Strait of Hormuz if they want to, how is that not a terrible, terrible outcome for the United States? That's a possible outcome, but it's not the only outcome. And we've got to remember that the war effort is supported not only by Israel, which is a combatant, but it is also supported by Saudi Arabia and many of the Gulf Cooperation Council states. So they do not want Iran to prevail, and they've been helping the United States, and they've been backing us.

32:16So it's not just Israel. It's, I think, the region which has come to the conclusion that Iran is a danger that can no longer be sloughed off into the future. So, yeah, you have a scenario which is perfectly possible, but there are many other ones as well which are much brighter.

32:35Piers Morgan:Yeah, I mean, Professor Cheng, there's no doubt that what the Iranians have done by attacking its neighbouring Gulf states has massively antagonised the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others. They've gone after them in their most vulnerable areas, really, which are hitting the oil refineries and hitting tourist areas. There's been a 10 % reduction in people defecting, not defecting, but leaving some of these Gulf states because they fear it's not safe anymore. If that was to continue that trend or they stayed away irrevocably, you can see the whole business model of moving from reliance on oil, which is running out, to an economy through the Gulf states based on tourism, sport, entertainment, and so on, it becomes very difficult to sustain that if you don't have the people.

33:27Piers Morgan:So the stakes are pretty high here, aren't they? It is possible that GCC does not survive this war. As you point out, the GCC is heavily dependent on expatriates, on international financing, and on global trade. And this war has shown that the GCC is really a mirage, created an illusion that they will be protected by the American empire. In fact, we have the petrodollar system because the GCC had an agreement with America where the GCC would sell its oil in U.S. dollars and recycle back into the U.S. economy in exchange for American military protection. So not only did America start this war without their consent, but when this war started, the Americans abandoned their military bases and started shelter in hotels.

34:16And that's why they were targeted by Iranian drones. So this was a very bad deal for the GCC. And I think it's very hard for them to survive this war. And that's why I think there's so much anxiety and pressure to launch a ground invasion against Iran.

34:32Piers Morgan:When we spoke the last time you appeared on Uncensored, you were predicting that America would have to commit ground troops. Let's take a look. Iran is putting a lot of pressure on the GCC. And I think at the end of the day, the United States will be compelled to send ground forces. Once the United States sends in ground forces, there's no turning back. It's all in. The Sun-Claus fallacy kicks in. It'll be another Vietnam for the United States because Iran is a mountain fortress. And the United States right now doesn't have the manpower, the manufacturer capacity, and the political will to fight a long war of attrition on the ground in Iran.

35:17Piers Morgan:Now, you'd previously predicted correctly that Trump would win the election. You predicted the war with Iran. You also said that the United States would lose that war ultimately, and that remains to be seen. But on that specific prediction about the United States eventually having to commit troops, was that predicated on having to get the enriched uranium or in trying to effect a regime change? Yeah, I mean, I think it's a ladder where it is impossible to effect regime change from the air. And it's not sustainable in the long term. we're already seeing American F-15s, F-35s being downed by the Iranians.

35:58Because, first of all, it's hard to maintain these expensive$100 million planes in a long war. And second of all, the Iranians are developing creative air defense strategies against the Americans. So eventually, if you want to continue this war, you're going to have to send in ground troops because it's too expensive to maintain an air war.

36:19Piers Morgan:But the cost on human life from a ground invasion could be catastrophic, not just for the people who get killed, but also for the massive political fallout that would head Donald Trump's way. And of course, he has got the backdrop of the United States midterm elections in November. If you go into the attitude that one American soldier is worth more than$100 million F-15 or F-35, you're going to lose this war. Right. So what should the attitude be? Well, first of all, America should not be in this war. America should have negotiated a peace treaty with Iran. AMERICANS SHOULD HAVE LIFTED ALL TRADE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN AND ALLOWED FOR CIVILIAN IRANIAN ENRICHMENT AND THIS WOULD HAVE BOUGHT GLOBAL PROSPERITY TO THE WORLD.

37:17THE IRANIANS WERE PROBABLY HAPPY TO ABIDE BY A NUCLEAR TREATY THAT THEY SIGNED UNDER OBAMA AND THAT TREATY WAS GOING VERY, VERY WELL. SO FIRST OF ALL, THIS WAR SHOULD NOT HAVE STARTED. NOW THAT THIS WAR HAS STARTED, I THINK IT'S IMPERATIVE THAT THE AMERICANS RECOGNIZE THAT this war is lost, it cannot be win, and refuse to commit ground troops. Because once it commits ground troops, then this war becomes a step-by-step policy, mission creep, like Vietnam. So right now, it's a turning point. I implore the Americans, do not stand in ground troops. Once you stand in ground troops, you're stuck there for 10 years.

37:50Piers Morgan:Yeah, I think that's almost certainly true. I mean, Gordon Chang, you know, that paints a pretty rosy picture of the Iranian regime, you know, towing the line on the global stage. they've shown very little evidence they would do that. And in fact, of course, the whole point of the war from the Israeli point of view is that they've been the octopus providing the tentacles of terrorism to the Houthis, to Hezbollah, to Hamas, to terrorise Israel for several decades now. And that is why Israel wanted to neutralise that threat. And that is why Netanyahu worked so hard to persuade Donald Trump to bring America into it.

38:30Piers Morgan:I mean, do you think that the picture there that Professor Zhang paints of Iran being a reliable actor, perhaps, if we'd done things differently, is that a likely scenario? Yeah, I don't share it. So, for instance, with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the JCPOA that President Obama negotiated, we know that the Iranians violated it. And President Trump, when he pulled out, said he couldn't certify compliance. And we know that the Iranians were stalling and preventing inspections, which were part of that plan. And that was a direct contravention of its obligations. So, no, I don't think Iran can be trusted.

39:14I'd like to think that they could. But at least on that one, and that's the most direct precedent that we have, we have seen that they violated it. And by the way, they have 60 percent enriched uranium, which they admitted to. And so that's clearly a violation as well. You just go through the list of this, Pierce, and I just don't think that Iran could be trusted. It's unfortunate, but that's the nature of the regime. It wanted a nuclear weapon, absolutely determined to get it, and it would lie and cheat and steal, which it did.

39:46Piers Morgan:What is your prediction, Gordon Chang, for how this plays out? Well, how it plays out is determined by one individual, President Trump. And I don't know. You know, you're absolutely right when you say he's unpredictable. Now, we know what he says. I think that he is as good as his word on these issues for various reasons. He's been consistent about Iran not getting a nuclear weapon. He started this war, which he knew was going to be unpopular, so he's obviously determined to see it through. But, you know, as I said, it's up to one individual and we're just going to have to see. As I said, I think he's going to be as good as his word.

40:33Piers Morgan:Finally, Professor Zhang, I couldn't let you go without mentioning an encounter you had with Mehdi Hassan, who's a regular on Uncensored, in which he said you're misleading people because you're not actually a professor. And secondly, he called you China's useful idiot. Here is your chance to respond to these two charges. What would you like to say? First of all, he's absolutely right. I am not a professor. I am not a credentialed professor. I'm a high school teacher. We have a pretty popular YouTube following. And it's the internet that has called me professor. In China, it's a sign of respect to call someone a professor, regardless of his credentials.

41:12So it's entirely up to you whether or not to call me a professor. And the second point that I'm a useful idiot. Look, it is entirely possible that an algorithm is popping me up because I'm saying certain things that align with the interests of certain nation states. And I don't dispute that. My rise in the Internet has been meteoric. It's surprised me. But I'm committed to education. I'm committed to free debate. I'm committed to free discussion. I am probably happy to engage with people on both the left and the right. And I think that the path forward is open and free debate.

41:50Piers Morgan:Yeah, I completely agree. Gordon Chang, what is your view of Professor Chang? Are you happy to call him a professor? And do you think he's China's useful idiot? You know, everything that Professor Chang just said, I can certainly agree with him. So I understand that that title is something that people have given him. And that's that's fine with me. You know, he has views. Some of them align with what the Communist Party of China believes. Some of them do not, as we just heard. So he has his views. And I wouldn't characterize him with that useless idiot term. I think he just has views that both do align and don't align with the powers in China.

42:33Piers Morgan:Yeah, which from where I sit is actually a pretty good place to be. I have the same about my own country and my own government. I agree with them about some things. I disagree with them about others. Last time I checked, it's actually a pretty good place for most people to find themselves. But anyway, I'm quite happy to call you Professor Zhang. I think you are an internet sensation. It's great having you on Uncensored regularly now. And please come back soon. Thank you both very much. Thank you. Thanks, guys. Joining me now are two members of the Iranian diaspora with very different views about the war and what happens next.

43:10Piers Morgan:Sam Asghari, he's the Iranian-American actor, and Sarabh Amari, he's the Iranian-American journalist and US editor of Unheard. Welcome to both of you. Both Iranians, both have very strong views about this, and I'm very aware, having spoken to a lot of Iranians myself in the last six weeks, that opinions, they've evolved, They've fluctuated. People have changed their minds completely as it's gone on. Because obviously those who wanted regime change have seen the supreme leader taken down and many of his top people taken down, but the regime itself still appears to be intact. So has there been regime change?

43:52Piers Morgan:Many think that hasn't happened. Has there been a popular uprising by the people? Not so far. Have the Iranian regime, have they found a way to strangle the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz in a way that may have even surprised them? Yes. So there are lots of complexities to this, and I wouldn't pretend otherwise. But Sam, let me start with you. Welcome back to Uncensored. What was your view at the start of the war on day one, and what is your view now? My view from the start of the war until now is the same. I mean, nobody wants war. Nobody wants innocent people dying. Nobody wants the American soldiers being sent overboard, you know, that caused any sort of casualty to the innocent people between these two governments.

44:41And that's been the same. I mean, we never want war to start. But we figured that this is going to be the only way that this regime is going to get weakened. And it has already become weakened, and it sort of looks like there's a lot of chaos that's happening within the leaders that are left. So my views are standing the same. But, again, we haven't really seen anything coming out of Iran because the Internet shut down and the total blackout that they had. So it's very hard to see what's really happening within the people inside of Iran. But nobody wants really to be bombed and nobody wants to be under that much pressure, especially when they were already under economic pressure to begin with.

45:26And so we just figured to wait and see what really happens within the next few weeks in Iran to really figure out what's what's going to be the future.

45:38Piers Morgan:OK, Sarah, welcome to Uncensored. What was your view on day one? This NBA playoffs with FanDuel. You're not just watching the playoffs. You're a part of them. Steve's got the phone, opens FanDuel, and he's going for threes. Be a part of the action on FanDuel. All customers get a profit boost every NBA playoff game day. 21 plus and present in select states. Opt-in required. Bonus issued is non-withdrawable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount. See full terms at FanDuel.com slash sportsbook. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. What is your view now?

46:16My view on day one was driven mainly by my status as an American, not someone who happens to be born in Iran, which is this was a war that the president more or less explicitly said he wouldn't do during his campaign, that it was unpopular and that it would not serve U.S. national security interests. And my view today remains the same. It's surveying the field. it's completely unclear whether this war has achieved anything. The regime has hardened. There is lots of signs of the rally around the flag, which I and many others like me predicted. Ideologically, a lot of the people who would have made a deal potentially with the West are dead, as the president himself said early on at some point in an interview in the war.

47:04The people who are left are younger Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps members who are more radical and who are in a way chafing under the restraint imposed on them by the previous supreme leader, and now they feel unrestrained. It's come down to whether or not the Strait of Hormuz stays open or closed. In other words, it's come down to restoring a status quo ante that wouldn't have been disrupted but for the war. And I'll say this, look, the reason I'm speaking to you from New York rather than Tehran is because my family and I are no fans of the Iranian regime. There's no question about that.

47:40It's a theocracy. It's been repressive. However, you have to think about whether or not the experiences of the post-911 years when the U.S. tried these kinds of wars in the Middle East had served the U.S. well. And they didn't. They created vast swaths of stateless and chaotic territory in places like Libya that's still feeding migrants into Europe. Syria went through a brutal civil war and then ended up under the leadership of essentially an al-Qaeda warlord. Afghanistan, after 20 years of blood and treasure expended, is back in the hands of the Taliban. And Iraq is this mess that's kind of an Iranian satrapy.

48:21So with all that in mind, you have to wonder what's going to be achieved. Now, there is a way to do regime change in Iran, but it's not this kind of warfare. You'd have to deploy estimates range from half a million to a million troops. And no one in the United States has an appetite for that. So, you know, I think if I'm in the Iranian leadership, I'm actually feeling pretty good right now, having revealed my ability to squeeze the global economy. And essentially, I now realize as an Iranian leader, if I'm sitting in Tehran, I have a nuclear weapon called the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah. it's been an enormous waste and potentially a costly strategic blow to the United States.

49:01And that pains me as an American.

49:03Piers Morgan:Yeah, this is how I feel about it. Sam, bringing you back in, one of my big problems with President Trump in all this is the constant mixed messaging and changing of messaging. At the launch of what he called Epic Fury on February 28th, an address to the world, he said, finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight, the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. And we know from the New York Times reporting several days ago that Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House Situation Room, in the buildup to this war, one of his persuasive arguments to Trump was that if you decapitate the leadership, then there will be an uprising.

49:47Piers Morgan:And he even went further than Netanyahu and said that there'll be no attention paid to the Strait of Hormuz because all the attention will be on the IRGC dismantling and the people taking over and so on. Well, none of the rest of that has happened. We've seen the Ayatollah taken out, but replaced by his son. We don't know the condition of the son, but he's apparently still alive and is the new supreme leader. There are 250 ,000 members of the IRGC. Many of them are still there. Underneath them There's nearly half a million paramilitaries heavily armed, loyal to the regime. And below that, there's the standing army of nearly a million people.

50:22Piers Morgan:So there's an enormous armed force there. And as Saurabh said, if you're actually going to try and get rid of the regime, you've got to have enough troops on the ground to take on a force like that. And there's no appetite whatsoever for anyone to do that. So that isn't going to happen. So, you know, my problem has been that after Trump posted that, he then posted only last week, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will, which is the most explicit sort of espousing of potential genocide I've ever heard an American president come out with.

50:59Piers Morgan:He's basically saying we're going to kill every Iranian. How that sits with this is your hour of freedom at hand to the Iranian people is completely baffling to me. So, you know, as an Iranian, are you not finding that as problematic as everybody else? I mean, do you not think that that's an extraordinary double messaging coming out of the White House?

51:24As an American, I feel that that's not very presidential to speak when it comes to tweeting or whatever social media that you use, especially if this war or this operation ever started because of humanity. Remember, the whole point was that Iranian people were in need of help, and that was the whole campaign behind it. So it's something that absolutely, as an American, I don't agree with, as a person, I don't agree with, and as an Iranian-born, I don't agree with. But I think what the president was trying to do here is negotiate with the Iranians the way that they speak. He was speaking their language.

52:04And he sort of was doing that. So but that's something that you don't usually do when it comes to political aspect for the other people to see. I mean, I see private messages between them and the president of the United States. That's one thing. But, you know, putting it out on the social media and to sort of play that role, it doesn't really play for American people, for the Iranian people. So it's absolutely not the way to speak. But again, he has been really trying to talk to these lunatics like a lunatic.

52:39Piers Morgan:Yeah, but you see, I just don't think that is the correct way to do it. You know, it's like, yeah, you can behave exactly like your enemy. But if your argument is that this enemy is a bunch of appalling, genocidal lunatics, you should rise above them. You should maintain a, in public at least, a high moral ground, I think. And I think, you know, the problem with saying a whole civilisation will die tonight is that when they don't, you become the boy that cried wolf. You become the emperor with no clothes. Your whole standing of issuing these sort of apocalyptic threats and then not carrying anything out is that if you're the Iranian regime, you're like, well, he blinked.

53:20Piers Morgan:You know, however Trump tries to spin it, he blinked. And once you blink and you're the President of the United States, you know, I think as Saurab said, then you're inviting the regime to feel that, well, we have an existential threat to our existence and it's not happened. So, in effect, we have won. It's just a question of the terms now. Yeah, I mean, I think the... I would harp on actually the strategic mistake. Set aside the moral dimension, which, of course, horrified lots of people, not least the Holy Father, Pope Leo. I happen to be a Catholic. Yeah, me too. But setting that aside, it just, you know, you remember those hours.

54:03He said, I will rain fire upon you and destroy your civilization. Especially talk of civilization is so sensitive for Iranians because they justly take pride in a very old civilization, 2 ,500 years old. And then, you know, in a matter of hours to say, yes, I've accepted the Iranian framework as a 10-point sort of opening for negotiations, which included Iranians charging a toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. I mean, that looks ridiculous. And again, American prestige is, some of it rests on this possibility that the United States is this power that has several thousand strategic weapons and could truly end a nation if it wanted to.

54:49But it was never said explicitly, and to have said it explicitly and then to go back to a position of, well, maybe the Iranian 10-point plan is a good basis for negotiations, is farcical. That's bad for American power. And again, that's what pains me, more so even maybe than the moral dimensions of the bluster.

55:10Piers Morgan:Yeah, I mean, Sam, none of the 10-point, 15-point plans, none of them actually articulate regime change as something to be negotiated even. So it seems like that's not even on the table at the moment. But again, I come back to the goalposts have changed so often here. If I was Iranian, especially if I was living in Iran, I'd be like, I just don't understand what is happening here. Are we going to get to a situation where, because of the Strait of Hormuz being closed and the way that it's been so effectively by the regime because of the way they've tactically attacked their Gulf state neighbours in a very damaging way to the business model going forward for all of those Gulf states.

55:50Piers Morgan:And I've been to them a lot in the last couple of years. And if you're in Saudi Arabia or Qatar or UAE, your business model you're selling to the world that's been very successful to date has been come here, it's safe, it's sunny, it's going to be entertainment, great for tourism, great for sport and so on. And right now that's all on hold, which is devastating to them. So there's been a double-pronged economic war being waged by the regime, whilst the Americans and the Israelis have been waging a predominantly military war, saying we've got overwhelming power, we're going to destroy you. But this asymmetric double war I don't think has worked for America in particular.

56:31Piers Morgan:I don't think the Israelis care, but I think Trump does, and he's seeing the political damage now in the polling. This was already a war most Americans didn't approve of, and that has increased that disapproval. So I just... My gut feeling is Donald Trump got into this because he believed that when Netanyahu said all these things will happen, he believed it. And the reality is most of it hasn't happened. So in that eventuality, how long do you want to see... I'm sorry, I didn't mean to call you an Iranian. I accept you're... How would you categorise yourself? An Iranian-American? Is that...? How do you want to be called?

57:11Are you talking to me, Piers?

57:12Piers Morgan:Yeah, yeah. Born in Iran, made in America. So what do you prefer to be, an Iranian-American? I don't want to put words in your mouth. Sure. You know, America gave me everything, so I would consider myself American-Iranian. Got it. But that's, you know, Iran is something that, here's the problem with Iran. we cannot sit here and blame anybody else besides the government of Iran. That is the main devil in the Middle East. I mean, take a look at the Middle East. Like you said, every single country that's out in the Middle East, even Turkey that's being ran by a dictator, is also weighing in in the political field rather than sitting alone and saying we don't want any foreign companies, anything that has to do to come to this country.

58:05and sort of they are the ones to blame to hold this civilization back and hold this country away from the planet. I mean, Iran is being sort of hostage from the planet, and for that country to be free, it's going to only benefit not only the Middle East but also the entire world, and we're sort of missing that. So it's sort of hard to sit here and, you know, try to blame the United States and Israel for getting into this war.

58:31Piers Morgan:I agree with you. Look, I've got absolutely no truck for the Iranian regime whatsoever, and I shed no tears when the Ayatollah was killed. You know, let's be clear that they've waged a campaign of terrorism against their own people in Iran, and they've been the octopus with the tentacles of terrorism throughout the Middle East and predominantly aimed at Israel, obviously through the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas and so on. So, you know, I think we're all agreed on that. The question becomes, what do you do about it? And I'm just sitting here looking at this war six weeks in and thinking, well, the enriched uranium remains buried away.

59:04Piers Morgan:They've no idea where it is. The regime in the negotiations, the 21 hours they had the other day, made it clear they were not going to surrender it, and nor were they going to agree to any extended ban on them developing a nuclear weapon. You know, their argument being, well, Israel's got a load of them, why shouldn't we have one, I'd imagine, which is actually not a bad argument. The Israelis never like to even admit if they have a nuclear weapon. which I find baffling that the world just accepts that. But putting that to one side, I just see a situation here where this either drags on interminably, as we saw with Iraq and all the problems that came out of that, or Trump just has to cut and run at some stage.

59:49Piers Morgan:And I guess if the second thing happens, how would you feel about that? When it comes to, you know, the whole brains and the whole mentality behind this whole thing ever started was humanity for me and for the Iranian people. And, you know, this situation, the Iranian people are sort of in between two blades of a scissor, their own government and, you know, being bombed by another country that's supposedly being able to free them as far as other agendas, you know, in mind. So either or, you know, my mentality behind this is a loser and the Iranian people are going to lose at the very extreme. But it's gotten so bad that anything, the whole mentality was anything but this, anything but our government, and we'd rather get bombed.

1:00:39That mentality is still there. You just don't see it because of the blackout. But there are times where people did ask for something, but they don't realize how long it takes. You know, this regime change usually takes a lot longer than, you know, 40 days of war. I mean, even average war is, what, three years or so. So we are not taking into consideration the timing that it takes, you know, if the government is... But here's the problem with that. The amount of years that it takes.

1:01:07Piers Morgan:Yeah, but Sam, here's the problem with that. I think the reason is that the Americans and probably Israelis massively underestimated the ability of the regime in Iran to strangle the Strait of Hormuz in the way they have. And I think that that has proved to be devastating, even in a short 40-day period. It's already been the biggest seismic shock to the global energy market ever in recorded history. So I think that has been the thing that was, in my view, grotesquely underestimated and inexplicably underestimated, because it's not difficult to predict they could do that. But I think the fact the regime now knows it has that power, that gives them, as Saurabh was saying, they don't really need a nuclear weapon if they can just shut down that strait when they see fit and cause economic mayhem.

1:01:59Piers Morgan:And for Trump, in particular, it causes enormous political damage in the run-up to midterm elections. Well, look, I mean, I think here is the real miscalculation, one source of the miscalculation. And I've been saying this for years. You know, I started out as a, I started out the Wall Street Journal editorial page, you know, the comment pages of the journal, which are famously very hawkish. And so not, maybe a decade ago, I was still where basically Sam is, right? I was like, well, we can, you know, we can use American power to liberalize the world and so on. But then I had to look at the outcome of those wars, as I said, and think that, you know, for the most part, this kind of moralistic foreign policy doesn't really work.

1:02:47But it was fed in the Iran case by essentially too many in Washington and probably in Jerusalem listening to only like people like Sam and me and not realizing. And I started warning about this, that look, yes, 10, 20 percent of the population, urban, educated, is 100 percent opposed to the regime and probably did welcome the bombing campaign early on. Although as it wore on, you started to see, you know, the women who didn't wear the hijab and the state TV would put them on TV deliberately. Women without hijab, with like manicured, French manicured nails being like, we're standing with our supreme leader.

1:03:26Some of that is propagandistic, but some of it is real sentiment. But beyond that 10-20%, there is like a core of the Iranian people who support the regime. It's uncomfortable for us to acknowledge, but they have bled for the revolution. They gave thousands, tens of hundreds of thousands of lives in the Iran-Iraq war. They get both material benefits and sort of spiritual and ideological sustenance from the regime. And they're true believers, and they're the sector of society that has a kind of incumbency. They're the ones who are armed. And then there is the poor middle, the mushy middle, the 40%, 50 % that can go now this way or not that way.

1:04:04Now, after all these events, I would bet that that mushy middle has actually been dragged to the pole that was pro-regime, that was supportive of the regime, because no one likes to be bombed. No one likes to see the attacks like the one in Minab that killed 100-some schoolgirls. So I think listening too much to this sector of the diaspora, which has a kind of rosy picture, many of them, like myself, that's why I try to be modest about my foreign policy predictions. I haven't been to Iran in 25, 26 years. I don't know the sorts of evolution that has taken place. And I feel sort of bad for the followers of Reza Pahlavi.

1:04:46I think, you know, monarchy is an ancient tradition in Iran at 2 ,500 years. And there was a way, I think, that he could have won something like his crown. And that was to say something like this. I deplore what's happening to my people. Even if some of it is the fault of the Iranian regime or much of it, I still will do all that's in my power to stop the West from inflicting further pain on Iran, standing up to, you know, these kind of anti-civilizational rhetoric. And then he would have become a kind of nationalist figure. But to have said, basically kind of become an apologist for the operation and barely raise the peep, if any, when the kind of horrors of the war unfolded, I think he's now attained a status not unlike that of the Mujahideen Ekhard, the MEK, which was the opposition group which sided with Saddam Hussein, You know, the Iranians think you're with an enemy against the homeland.

1:05:44You are ostracized. So now you have this enormous group of people in the diaspora who's going to be disillusioned. Their Shah is never going to go back. They're never going to have a Pahlavi restoration. It's, you know, you're going to have an IRGC stand, a militarized North Korea style regime, which is wounded in some ways, but all the more vicious for that.

1:06:06Piers Morgan:Yeah, I mean, let's bring Sam back in. I mean, following the ceasefire, Reza Pahlavi addressed supporters who were disheartened by the pause in U.S. Israeli strikes, urging them to see the truth as proof of regime weakness rather than defeat. And he directly appealed to the Iranian armed forces to fulfill their patriotic oath by abandoning the regime and protecting the people from foreign mercenaries like Hezbollah and the PMF. But obviously, there's not much sign of any of that happening. And at the same time, we have a former UK House of Commons speaker, John Bercow, addressing an international conference in Paris yesterday where he said this.

1:06:43Piers Morgan:Mr Pallavi cannot be accused of too much arduous work over the decades. He was born into enormous wealth and privilege. he scuttled off to the United States four and a half decades ago. I'm not aware of anything useful he's done since, but apparently he goes to bed at night, my source tells me, eagerly entertaining the hope that the moment is nigh. The prince over the water who will come to the rescue and achieve a position of leadership. Well, I stopped believing in fairy tales before I became a teenager. This guy's now in his mid-60s. I have to say to him, just as our little secret between Mr Pahlavi and me, mate, you are deluded.

1:07:50Piers Morgan:Sam, what do you make of that? You know, taking a look at a video of somebody else speaking on behalf of a lot of the Iranian people before this war started, now there may be a couple of percentage of people sort of getting away from regime change and Pahlavi dynasty going back and sort of siding with the regime. But I think it's sort of listening to that is ridiculous. I did like his tie. I enjoyed his passion. But I think sort of speaking on behalf of other people, you know, it sort of gets ridiculous at times. And sometimes we forget that the whole reason why the diaspora of the Iranian people that rose up and spoke on everything that was happening in Iran before this war, and even now was to be the voice of the people of Iran.

1:08:49And the misinformation and sort of saying what you wanted was sort of not very helpful. And it was just to echo the voices of Iran. And he was the main opposition. And he was being called out by not only the people inside of Iran before this blackout, but also the diaspora as well. And it's hard to say that, you know, it's if you if you take a look back at history and let's say, you know, you can say you can example countries like North Korea. But what about South Korea? What about Germany? What about, you know, Hungary? What about some of the Scandinavian countries? And what about the countries that when it came to America helping out and America getting into war again?

1:09:34Again, wars never resolves anything. But in history, it has freed countries and it has made countries great. And, you know, if you take a look at the Iranian regime, the regime is stacked with layers on the way this regime was designed. That's the main issue, not the opposition group, not the countries. You know, if you take a look at Israel, sure, Israel has done some, you know, their own stuff in Palestine and in Iran. But the people of Iran are the ones that are being shut down and shut out by the Internet. So that is the main issue. The biggest issue is we are not really understanding the percentage of people.

1:10:18I don't think it's 20 to 30 percent of the people. I think it's a lot more than that. And it's not that we are getting bombed. This whole thing started of how weird it was as an Iranian to say, I'm glad another country is coming in because how badly their own government was handling and managing the government. This wasn't about, you know, wearing your hijab or covering. This was about just economic management. I mean, you've got a country that's supposed to be one of the wealthiest countries in the world, and they don't have Internet.

1:10:49Piers Morgan:Is it better, though, San, on that point, is it better to have an organic overthrowing of a leader, as we saw in Syria recently with Assad, for example, where it's driven by people from within Syria? Is that the best way to affect regime change? In other words, it was interesting what Saurab said earlier, because I think it was Saurab, where you touched on the fact that some people in Iran may well have rallied behind the regime against the bombing, not because they like the regime, but because they hate the bombing more. And I talked last week on the show about a Kosovo who runs a cafe near me who said it reminded him he'd had some Iranian customers come in who said they had done that exact thing.

1:11:43Piers Morgan:You know, they were very anti-the regime, but they were more pro-their country than they were the country being bombed by outside forces. And he said it reminded him of what happened in Kosovo when NATO attacked Milošević. Quite a few Kosovans did, in the end, put their country ahead of their hatred of Milošević. And that could explain why you're not seeing any uprisings at the moment, along with the obvious issue of there's bombing everywhere and so on, and the memory of what happened in January. But what do you think to that argument? I think the Iranian people don't have, like I said, they're cut in between two blades on the sharp end of the sword.

1:12:25And they're sort of, they don't have anything but to sit and back and take the damage that's happening. And the problem with the Iranian government is they've used that tactics for years. I mean, they've used propaganda. That was their most dangerous weapon that they used. But their second was brainwashing. And now that's gotten to an end. I mean, it's been 50 years of that. People have social media. People have Internet. People see how even Saudi Arabia and Dubai has become such successful countries. And they use and they're being managed by people that are using their brains. So I think they sort of have lost that, you know, trust within their own government for years.

1:13:11But they've been abandoned. I mean, these people are, I extremely feel bad for every single person that's inside of Iran because they don't have their own government. They're totally on their own. They don't have anything. They don't have bank systems right now working. They don't know what the future is. They don't have basic Internet. But it's the mentality of their own government, they rather their own government being bombed. But, yes, be careful what you wish for. I mean, if you've never, you know, been bombed before or never seen that, of course you're going to be frightened, you know. Of course it's going to be a moment where you're going to realize this is so bad.

1:13:51We're getting hit by every single angle of life.

1:13:54Piers Morgan:Yeah. Sarah, let me bring you back in, because on this issue of propaganda, there's a meme that we have here of what they're talking about, which is the way the Iranian regime is kind of using digital propaganda to get to people in the West in particular. Let's take a look.

1:14:48Piers Morgan:You know, what's interesting about that to me, I think, Sourab, is it's well made. It's very slick. It was commissioned by the Iranian regime. And not all the memes coming out of Iran are using humour. This one was posted a few days ago by the Iran embassy in Tajikistan, mocking President Trump as Jesus after Trump obviously reposted that meme. Let's take a look at this.

1:15:14Your reckoning has come. What is this? No!

1:15:23Piers Morgan:So, you know, it's sort of effective use of modern social media tools to get their point over, and I think it's undeniably been quite effective. What do you think, Sarab? Yeah, look, I mean, notice how much more nimble they are in terms of their messaging. What they're trying to do is drive a wedge between Western, and especially American domestic audiences that didn't vote for this war, a lot of the people who rallied to Trump in 2024, young men, about a fifth of African-American men, a half of Hispanic men, they thought they were getting the peace ticket, as the RNC called itself. And it was one of the most appealing things about President Trump beginning in 2016, is he ran as a critic of the neoconservative hawkish establishment in both parties that had launched a bunch of what he called disastrous wars in that famous February 2016 debate with Jeb Bush, Senator Cruz, and the others.

1:16:31At the time, I was on the right, and still in some ways of the right, but it was so taboo to point out that Iraq had been a disaster, and Trump just came out and said it. And he flipped the script totally on all of this stuff. And that's what made him attractive. And so then for him to launch wars gives the Iranians an opportunity in their propaganda to separate his supporters from the administration. And again, it's nimble in the sense that the target is Trump or what the Iranians call the so-called Epstein class, things like that. They don't attack a whole American civilization. By contrast, you have figures like Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, and President Trump using this very crude rhetoric targeting a whole civilization or talking about driving Iran back to the Stone Age, having, as you pointed out, Piers, launched the war on the promise of help is on the way and so on.

1:17:29Piers Morgan:How do you feel, Saurabh, about the attack on the Pope, Pope Leo, the first American Pope, obviously, which came in the same sort of 48-hour cycle as Trump reposting a meme of himself as Jesus, even though he now ridiculously pretends he thought he was a doctor. But this sort of double-pronged attack, both on sort of mocking Christianity in a way that offended even his most committed MAGA supporters, many of whom, of course, are very committed to Christianity, probably more intently than they are to Trump himself. So a completely crazy thing to do, I thought, politically, never mind anything else.

1:18:07Piers Morgan:But the attack in particular on the Pope, who his only argument has been that he just wants the war to stop. He thinks war is bad because it kills a lot of people. What did you feel about that as a Catholic? Well, look, I was offended. You know, as Catholics, we look to the Pope as a spiritual father. He's the vicar of Christ. He's the successor of St. Peter. In the book of Acts, there's a verse that says that when Peter came around, the people would bring the ill and disabled, and they would lay their disabled and sick people in the path of Peter so that his shadow might fall on them and heal them.

1:18:47So that's the kind of level of authority you're talking about. And, you know, there was something bizarre about that message of saying Poop Leo is weak on crime as though he's talking about like a local mayor. And it really did go into dementia territory because I think Trump has like a grab bag of insults in his head. It's like Barack Hussein Obama, weak on crime. Leo, weak on crime. And, you know, so and look, the fact is that Pope Leo is also not only speaking from this deep tradition of the just war theory that the Catholic Church has developed, where war is seen as an evil. And it doesn't say that you can never wage war, but it has to be under very strict conditions.

1:19:31And he's not only speaking from within that tradition, but he's also just addressing where popular sentiment is in the United States. Pope Leo has a plus 34 popularity rating in the United States. Trump has a negative 12, depending on which poll you look. Some are much worse. Has a negative 12 spread, like a popularity or favorability spread. So it's bizarre to take, even politically speaking, again, set aside the morality of it. It's weird to pick a fight like that with the Pope and to pick a fight and treat him like any other politician rather than a global spiritual leader.

1:20:05Piers Morgan:Yeah, I agree. Just finally, Sam, I was struck by the fact the new Iranian president, Masoud Pazikian, backed the Pope, posting, His Holiness, Pope Leo, I condemn the insult to your excellency on behalf of the great nation of Iran and declare that the desecration of Jesus, the prophet of peace and brotherhood, is not acceptable to any free person. I wish you glory by Allah. A pretty extraordinary thing to see coming out of the mouth of the president of Iran. Were you surprised to see that? And what do you make of this whole row that Trump's having with the Pope?

1:20:41Absolutely not. I'm not surprised for the Iranian government to use any opportunity that they have to target and to try to be the good guys here. I mean, that's what they've done the best. That's what they've done to get power. And that's what they continue doing. And the only people that are seeing through the lies are the people of Iran that are asking for some sort of a change for a better future. So, you know, watching, growing up in a country like that and being brainwashed and sort of being told something that's not and sort of having the whole politician, very, very bad politician that the Iranians are, sort of give me the understanding that politics was no longer the interest to me.

1:21:22And, you know, when I look at these things online, I figure sometimes when things are being said, they could be the most anti-American thing, even though you are trying to be very American. So that's where my issues with politics come in. And, you know, just being an Iranian born and seeing what that country turned into and the management part of it made me just hate politics and then fall in love with humanity and really try to pick up from the person and not just what they're saying. So, you know, I cannot get good energy and good vibes if we want to put it into simple terms from the people, from the government of Iran.

1:22:06Absolutely not. So I don't care what they do, even if they tweet my picture and say we love Sam. I don't I don't care. I don't I don't want to hear from them.

1:22:15Piers Morgan:Very quickly, Sam, because we run out of time, but let's go forward six months, putting aside what you hope would happen based on where we are today. What do you think will happen?

1:22:31eventually within the six months range I think it's a short amount of time to really determine what's going to happen but for the people of Iran what I'm hearing from the inside is that this is only going to get better and I hope this war stops and I hope there is a deal into a new future for the people of Iran new management and I think it's more realistic to look down three to five years to see real change coming from that government. And I think that that regime is going to get weakened, and they are not going to be as iron-fist when it comes to their ideology as the previous leaders were. And I think, you know, within the years, they're only going to be weakened, and we're going to have an opportunity to create a leader for that country by the people, from the people.

1:23:20Piers Morgan:Okay, Saurabh, quickly, what do you think? Look, I think that there's going to be a non-agreement agreement where President Trump walks away and various countries strike bilateral deals to give some sort of toll to the Iranians, which will count as their reparation, as their consolation prize for this. There's going to be kind of uneasiness, an uneasy relationship with Israel ongoing. going. So Iran will almost certainly run to China and Russia and try to beef up its defenses for the next round. But I don't see regime change of any kind. I think that this crew will continue to be in charge. You can kill this guy, but there's layers and layers behind each one leader.

1:24:07What you will see, though, I think Sam's right in one sense, which is they're going to let up on some of the morality policing. Honestly, the hijab thing had already, the hijab rule had already been severely weakened. It's still on the books, but they weren't really enforcing it after the 2022 uprising. So you see right now, I mean, I watch state TV daily just to get a sense of what they're up to. And you see women without hijab on state TV, like they show them protesting on the streets. So, you know, some new, we call it, some new sort of pledge of allegiance will form between the regime and the society, which will take into account these changes that have taken place.

1:24:48But in terms of Iran's strategic presence in the region and as a regime, I think it's all... Again, I maintain it's only been strengthened by this war, and that's why I wish the president had listened to people like Pope Leo who would invade against this kind of willy-nilly war-making.

1:25:10Piers Morgan:Fascinating conversation. Thank you both very much. As I said at the top of the show, the president last week addressed the criticism that Iranian protesters never set a chance without weapons. Speaking to Trey Yinkster of Fox News, he said the US did try to arm the Iranians by sending weapons to the Kurds who stole them. Joining me to respond to that is Bafal Talibani. He's the president of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. Welcome back to Uncensored. Thank you, Mr Morgan. Did you steal them? No, I didn't, actually. But, you know, Kurdistan is a tale of two cities. We're kind of a country, but not a country.

1:25:46We have a government that's not really a government. I can guarantee you on the Soleimaniya side, not a people stolen. And I think you have enough friends in the administration to confirm that. I can't speak for the other side.

1:25:59Piers Morgan:So what was your view of what President Trump said? I mean, if that's the case, and I'm sure that those words didn't come out of nowhere, I think it's absolutely shameful. I mean, it's one thing to think that that tactic of using the Kurds as the bulwark of the assaults was a bad idea, but it's a completely other thing to steal from your allies. Will there be any repercussions? I wouldn't want to steal from Mr Trump, would you? Not particularly. No, I presume there will be. In terms of the wider war, what is your perspective on where we've reached here six weeks on? Looking at it a bit differently, Mr Morgan, I think that patience is required is the number one thing.

1:26:50But I think that instead of a small win, there could be the opportunity for a larger win if the Americans are thinking that way. And Mr Trump's book indicates some of that. I think that if they concentrated on perhaps not just this immediate conflict, but all the things in the Middle East that contribute to this conflict and exasperate this conflict, perhaps there's an opportunity for a greater understanding and a bigger deal, a deal regarding the Palestinians, a deal regarding what's happening now in Lebanon, for example. I think if the American administration went for a bigger deal, absolutely it would take more time, but the victory would be colossal and it would be a change in the Middle East, it would be a real win.

1:27:36And I think the numbers in the upcoming elections in the United States would be very favourable to the Republicans. If they had the patience for that. Sorry. Sorry, sir, please.

1:27:47Piers Morgan:Well, no, I'll tell you, I think it would take a lot of patience. I'm not entirely sure that Donald Trump has a lot of that generally. And it would take a lot of commitment and money and so on. In terms of this idea of regime change, Yes. There was a big piece in the New York Times a few days ago suggesting that Benjamin Netanyahu painted a picture to Trump, which Trump clearly bought into, that if you decapitated the leadership of Iran and killed the Ayatollah, that it would lead to regime change, that the IRGC would basically fragment and then collapse and the people would rise up and you would have a change of regime.

1:28:22Piers Morgan:Was that ever likely and is that even possible, do you think? Honestly, Mr Morgan, I don't believe so. I think that the bombing campaigns have had the adverse effect. You can speak to Iranians. We do. Thousands of Kurds contact us. They can even tell who's bombing from the targets, Mr Morgan. This may be something you haven't heard before. Every time a school is destroyed, every time a university is destroyed, every time a hospital is destroyed, they know it's not the Americans. I can't see how that's helpful. And you can't bomb people into loving you. I just don't believe it. and I think the tactic is wrong.

1:28:59And it's having the adverse effect. We've seen people demonstrating who have been interviewed. Madam, you were here six months ago demonstrating against the regime and they say we're not demonstrating for the regime now, we're demonstrating for our country, for our land, for our soil. And that's understandable. I think your Kosovo example was extremely astute.

1:29:21Piers Morgan:Yeah, it was passed to me by Kosovo and that's why I thought it had great credibility. And I was trying to think what would happen with the UK, for example. If we were bombed here, however unpopular the government at the time, I think you would see people rally behind the country. I think it's an instinctive human reaction. It's exactly that. It's a human reaction. I think one of the dangers is listening to the diaspora and to refugee communities. When we were in the UK, we were so against Saddam, we would have said anything. And I think that maybe the Iranians in America are wonderful, educated people.

1:30:01They may not be the right people to listen to. I think that the United States has great intelligence. They have very good friends that are very close to them. And I think that that's who they should be listening to. You know, I'm optimistic now that the Pakistanis are sending a team to Tehran very soon to continue the negotiations. And I think one day where everything didn't go well shouldn't be the end of it. There was progress made, Mr Morgan, on many of the smaller issues. I think a lot of progress was made. I've heard this from both sides. So I think given the opportunity for things to continue and this ceasefire deadline isn't written in stone, it's very easy to extend things.

1:30:41And my hope is that people will see sense and realise that this is one of those conflicts that violence will not resolve.

1:30:49Piers Morgan:Baffle Talbani, thank you very much indeed. You're always welcome on Uncensored, not least because I think you're the only guest who regularly calls me Mr Morgan, which I greatly appreciate. So, Mr Talbani, thank you. Thank you very much, Mr Morgan. Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me. If you enjoy our show, we ask for only one simple thing. Hit subscribe on YouTube and follow Piers Morgan Uncensored on Spotify and Apple Podcasts. And in return, we will continue our mission to inform, irritate and entertain. And we'll do it all for free. Independent, uncensored media has never been more critical and we couldn't do it without you.