Biden Campaign Crisis, Trump and the Tech Bros, and Elon Exits California

24:25And my guess is they're just doing a ton of like, is it a competition with four debates in two weeks? Do we make it, do we put, you know, how does it play out at the convention? How do we come across, how do we make this robust and interesting and entertaining as opposed to just fucking chaos and panic? And I think a good crisis is a terrible thing to waste, But where they've ended up is the following, and that is, I think a few weeks ago, there was a general sense that the destabilization and the risks of removing Biden for a lot of people were not worth it. And then as there was additional scrutiny and he was forced to go off teleprompter and do live stuff, quite frankly, it just cemented, confirmed, validated everyone's worst fears.

25:12I don't know if you saw his press release where he was talking about this new rent control proposition. you couldn't even focus on it. It was like, oh, God. He kept saying anyway. I'd be bored, too. The way he tried to get down the stairs. I mean, I'm at a point where I think you're going to have a lot of anger among Democrats like, who the fuck made the decision to hide all of this shit from us? I mean, who thought that was a good idea to even believe that if they just managed it all, they could cosplay a competent president for the next four and a half years? Well, let me be fair. He's been competent, Scott.

25:46He's been doing whatever it's team Biden or whatever they've been doing. OK, vigorous. Despite all the stuff at the, you know, at the Republican convention, like taking credit for the economy, taking credit for this and that. That's fair. You know, it's it doesn't you can't have, you know, Gramps wandering around the West Wing without some. He's he's he's very like when he did the foreign policy stuff. Sharp is a friggin tack. Right. Was not was I was very good. And so I think it's just a question of focus and what's interesting to him, right? And so I do that, too. I won't talk about things I'm not interested in anymore.

26:21I'm like, no, I refuse to speak of that. But where I was headed with it is that as it became evident that he just should not, he should drop out, the risk of the chaos and the disorganization became a risk worth taking. And that's where we are, is that the risk and the chaos and the insecurity of how this plays out with an untested candidate that might not have as much name recognition, you know, all the candidates bring their strength and hair, the risks are now definitely worth taking. and so people are going mad at us for saying that yeah so i but look this is this has gone on too long it is time and there's just no doubt about it also they they must be freaked out on the dnc side about how moment how much momentum trump has if trump came out of this the last couple weeks weekend or you know and the polls haven't been that bad for trump and i'm sorry the polls haven't for Biden, and Biden had kind of a little bit better performance, not even a great performance on Stephanopoulos and Lester Holt, I think there's still be a lot of people saying it's not worth the risk.

27:26And they have a point. Now the risk is a risk worth taking. And I think everyone's coming around to that. Yeah, I would agree. In the midst of all the campaign chaos, Biden is reportedly making some big moves when it comes to the Supreme Court. He's finalizing plans to endorse major changes to the court in coming weeks, as we suggested, including proposals for term limits for justice is an enforceable ethics code. According to the Washington Post, those changes would be subject to congressional approval, which is a long shot, given the make-up of the House and Senate right now. If Biden doesn't drop out of the race, you know, it could be a Hail Mary to get people to stay with him.

27:59You know, if they do win the House and the Senate, they can do these things, right? The president, if Trump is vetoed, he's not, Trump is not a fan of these proposed changes, calling them an illegal and unconstitutional attack on the Supreme Court in the true social post. But we're with you, Joe, on this one. When you think of term limits, we love them. Yeah, I think it makes sense. I don't know if we'll go through. We've said this before. I think there are few institutions that have lost as much brand equity, but the Supreme Court used to be towards the top. It's ridiculous. And it shouldn't just be for Clarence Thomas and whatever scam he's perpetrating.

28:34Well, but to be fair, it's presented a real challenge for Justice Thomas because he faced a situation where both sides of the case both offered him really awesome scuba trips, and he just didn't know what to do. I know. I know. He should come here and talk to him. I thought that was good. I thought that would get a laugh out of you. Get it? Both sides of the case, scuba trip? All right. Okay, got it. Really awesome scuba trip to Belize. Like Belize. A Belizean scuba trip for Justice Thomas. Anyway, do something about parents Thomas and his insane spending with rich people. Anyway, we're going to get to rich people in a second.

29:10All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about big tech investors turning to Trump.

29:40All protected with end-to-end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp. Message privately with everyone. Learn more at whatsapp.com. There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel. One big question I've got is why, in 2025, are late-night TV shows, like Jimmy Kimmel's show, still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels.

30:24And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now. That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

30:46Scott, we're back with our second big story. More big names in tech are getting behind Trump, although not that many. Like, they put a list together and it was all the same losers and small dick energy that's always been. And in addition to his endorsement, Elon reported his plans to commit around$45 million. But today it got a little sketchier to the new Trump super PAC, according to Wall Street Journal, or else he's trying to get people to do it. Elon, by the way, has pushed back against that report about his$45 million super PAC contributions. The Wall Street Journal says it stands by its reporting.

31:16And I, for one, believe the Wall Street Journal. Mark Andreessen and Ben Horst, though, did tell the firm they intend to make significant donations to Trump PAC, explaining on their podcast this week that they believe the former president is better for startups. Mark Cuban, I would urge you to read his explanation. They want an environment where Bitcoin will do better cyber stuff because Mark Andreessen and Ben Hors have a huge investment in that area. And so tariffs and lower taxes would be better for Bitcoin, etc. And there'll be inflation too. Investor David Slacks even had a slot at the RNC convention that he bought.

31:53Oh, did I say that out loud? Where he reportedly met with tepid response by convention attendees. I got a lot of texts like, who is this clown? And I was like, welcome to my world. So here we have it. Here they have. They're trying to buy a presidency, essentially. I think Trump doesn't get what just happened with J.D. Vance. Let me just take a moment. We talked about him last week. His job record is not good in tech, let me just say, including Steve Case saying he didn't do much, right, when he worked for him. He had a firm that didn't do well. He had one company took public that's gone bankrupt.

32:29He essentially was, you know, it was really interesting because Rachel Maddow did a great thing on him this week where she basically called him an intern for Peter Thiel. Peter Thiel got him all his jobs and then gave him money to run for Senate and now has pushed him right into Trump's arms, including getting the Senate endorsement, which was critical to him, and then convincing Donald Jr. to press the president for this. So, you know, this has been a Beter Teal operation the whole time. I have to tip my hat to him because I do think he's quite brilliant. Not so much David Sachs, but he certainly is.

33:02But, you know, it's a small group of people. They put up a list of them, David Sachs did, and it's all like the Winklevosses and a bunch of other, this Sean McGuire person who never shuts up. It's all these unpleasant VCs. And when you the information did a poll of voters in Silicon Valley, and it was overwhelmingly Biden over Trump, the average people and startup people and this and that. It's mostly these incredibly afflicted VCs who think they're victims. So, you know, and there's there's there's others on the other side, obviously, Reid Hoffman, Mark Cuban, et cetera, et cetera. Quietly, Sheryl Sandberg.

33:41It is a dramatic shift read because in past, I think the past couple of presidential elections, you've had like 80 plus percent of the dollar volume coming out of the value has gone Democratic. These are real players. The thing that struck me was that I found it a couple of things. One, for Sequoia and Andreessen to come out and be this political overly. DeGlioni and the other guy there. Must mean that they have such extraordinary, they feel they have such extraordinary upside, probably around Bitcoin, probably around some sort of dialogue they've had with President Trump that if he's elected, he's going to do something that totally legitimizes or integrates Bitcoin technology into whatever, the Federal Reserve or fiscal planning or some sort of monetary policy that would take the price of Bitcoin and crypto so far up that they've decided it's worth the risk.

34:31Because what I got to think here is if I'm, Sequoia has Ottawa teachers or the state pension fund from Michigan as limited partners. I got to think right away, they got letters saying, okay, let's be clear. We gave you money to get an above market return investing in startups. We are not interested in taking the pensions of teachers, of public school teachers in Michigan, and having it go to a Trump pack. So the deal here must be, on the face of it, so incredibly lucrative in terms of upside for them to publicly come out in favor of Trump. Let me just read Mark Cuban's thing. Here's a contrary opinion on the emergence of Silicon Valley support for President Trump.

35:15And I agree with him. This is all about money. Let me be clear. These people, I've never heard a value out of these people, including any values. They don't have any values. Their values are themselves and their money. And they love themselves. That's what they love. That's it. But which, like all my opinions here, probably won't be popular. It's a Bitcoin play, not because former president is a far stronger proponent of crypto. That's nice. But it doesn't really impact the price of CRISPR. It makes it easier to operate a crypto business because of the inevitable required change of the SEC. But will drive the price of Bitcoin as lower taxes and tariffs, which if history is any guide, and it's not always, will be inflationary.

35:51Combined with the global uncertainty as to the geopolitical role of the USA and the impact on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency, you can't align stars any better for the Bitcoin price acceleration. How high can the price go? Way higher than you think. Remember, the market for Bitcoin is global and the supply has a final limit of 21 million Bitcoins with unlimited fractionalization. Keep in mind, you consider this happens because of geopolitical uncertainty and decline of the dollar and he keeps going crazy. It already happens in countries facing hyperinflations and things will go further than we can imagine today.

36:22I'm not saying it will. Then Bitcoin becomes exactly what the maxis envision, a global currency. I think this was, I was like, I hadn't, Mark always thinks of things that I don't think of. I have to say he had the same idea around AI that I thought was super smart. Anyway. But the thing that's disappointing here is that it's one thing when people, so first off, Citizens United, it's too much money in politics. It is what it is. The Supreme Court has decided that money is free speech. Okay, it is what it is. People have the right to give money. And it's going to result in influence. This seems to have taken it, though, to kind of a next level of pay to play, that these are specific issues that aren't even connected to any sort of ideology or political way of thinking.

37:06It's a general notion that if I give$45 million a month, I'm pretty sure he will place slap tariffs on BYD, the largest Chinese EV company. I'm pretty sure that if we and Andreessen give a lot of money to Trump, that he will do what we want around crypto. This feels like a kleptocracy. It's not supporting political ideology. It's just, if I give you enough money, you will use the strength and the reach of the government to ensure that I get sweetheart deals. That's true. And they're also trying to go against competitors. You know, Elon's way behind in AI. So attack open AI, attack Google. One thing that's interesting is what J.D.

37:53Vance will talk about in a second. But one of the things, you know, Elon's bought Twitter and made it accessible, but it's also part of a play which Mark Cuban told me was. He said this isn't about Twitter or anything else that comes out of his stupid mouth. It's about his global impact in terms of dealing with autocrats and his other businesses, right? He always was like, focus on his businesses, Karen, not his stupid remarks about trans people, even though they're stupid. But he's erased any error of neutrality for the platform, the New York Times noted. Another thing I would note is back in March, I said he was going to back Trump and back him heavy.

38:27And his stance came down on me like a ton of bricks when I said that on the Jen Psaki show. And right, you know, because I know he wants money. And that was sort of inspired by my discussion I had with Mark Cuban. I think it was 100 percent right. He predicted that. And this role of J.D. Vance in all this is interesting. You know, he's kind of a tech bro butler. He's a tech bro butler. He's a billionaire butler. Peter Thiel's been holding his hand the whole time, you know, holding everything to help him along the way. You know, it's literally like, you know, they say everyone gets on their own merit.

39:04This guy is like a poster child for special needs. He keeps getting pushed upward, even though he's not that particularly successful. But he has those stances. He's bullish on crypto. He owns Bitcoin. He's actually praised FTC, Charolina Khan. He's a conservative for her efforts to crack down on big tech. But the tech he's going after is Google, because in his words, it's explicitly progressive technology company. They're also going after Facebook, which is interesting. Mark Andreessen is on the board of that. He's called for the reform section 230. He's just in there. He's in their pocket. I just don't know what else.

39:42What do you think? Yeah, like I said, it feels like a kleptocracy. It's pay for play. It's not an ideology. It's, you know, I think we've covered this. The place I disagree with you on, J.D. Vance, does he have the credentials to be vice president? Probably not. Well, I don't know. No, he's been there a year and a half, Scott. He's passed no significant legislation. I get that, but nonetheless, he's passed no significant legislation. He had no business. He had no business success. I'm not a fan of the man. I think that when the scariest thing in my view around Trump is that he's, in my opinion, lacks focus and wants to take us to The Handmaid's Tale in 2025, if you're interested, is literally a manifesto for where they're planning to go.

40:30And the thing that scares me about Vance is that he has said repeatedly, I don't care about Ukraine. And generally speaking throughout history, when world leaders have shown, Western leaders have shown an indifference to an autocrat invading Europe, it doesn't end well. And so I find both of these people scarier and scariest. But in terms of just the pick itself and his performance as a politician, you know, my joke around Vance and I'll get, you know, Vance is half Trump's age, hot and deep down hates Trump. It's Trump's fourth wife. You know, I agree with you on that. I do think he's thinking this is Don Jr.

41:09successful. But this guy's not successful. Neither is Don Jr. and it was shoved. He was, you know, he made the decision supposedly like right after he got shot, which is perfect. Sarah Palin wasn't successful. Right. That hasn't gotten in the way of these people being nominated as vice president. No, but Murdoch was pushing for Burgum, who is actually successful. He is very successful. And he runs a state, even if it's a small state, it's a state. And same thing with Rubio. I don't like Margaret Rubio, but he's an experienced legislator. This guy is like a nobody. He's a vessel. That said, there's a really good article I push everyone to in Politico about people J.D.

41:44Vance likes, go find out who his inspirations are. You will be disturbed. It's all very conservative Catholic Christian theologists who are very frightening in terms of what they say about gays, about women, about all kinds of things. There's a whole heaping helping of weird. You know, he's always said that these people on the far left, talking about like, how do you mean misogynist and weird at the same time, are all cat-owning, childless people that are deeply unhappy and hate children. I'm like, uh-huh. He was like, you liberals don't believe in the future with childless. And I said, I have double the fucking children you have.

42:22What's wrong with you? I don't get it. He mentioned children was so strange. It was such a strange reference. But look, just to keep it real, because somebody needs to have increasingly honest and open and urgent conversations with President Biden. They're kicking our ass right now, Cara. They are kicking our ass. I'm going to go the other way. Oh, my gosh. Yeah. They're killing it. I like our chances. I like our chances. I do. Well, who are we talking about? Because of the bandage. That's why I've decided. Who are we talking about? When you say you like our chances, who do you think? Once they get a whole heaping help of this guy, he's not a good choice.

43:00He's made Trump vulnerable to a—I don't think Trump actually does believe a lot of that stuff. You know what I mean? This guy is a dyed-in-the-wool strange one. with the, he's the handmaid's tale guy, not Trump necessarily. Trump just doesn't care what he does. I'm just, I'm not a fan of Trump, obviously, but I almost feel bad for Trump because it's a plan. Anyway, one of the things they were talking about is AI plans if he's reelected. Trump allies are drafting an AI executive order that would launch a series of Manhattan projects to develop military tech and roll back burdensome regulations, of which there aren't any, according to the Russian post.

43:35What regulation? What's the burdensome regulation that needs to be rolled back. I call this a digital welfare program for the rich on threads. This is going to advantage Elon because he's behind. They're doing just fine without help from the government. And the government is not in their way. It's such nonsense. They're just asking for slight safety things. They're just trying to front run any kind of regulation. And this will be Elon. This is Elon, Elon and his friends, not the ones who actually are better at it. Everything we're doing here, we need another pick, a competition, and we need to start taking the narrative back.

44:13They are totally controlling the narrative and the oxygen, even though it's not, even though a lot of it's negative and people like us getting upset. The bottom line is it's all we're talking about. Let me just tell you why I do this. There was a bunch of series of articles after the shooting, right, where the reporters went in and they were expecting the people in Trump country to blame Biden. And the most sensible people, these are all very conservative people. They're like, I'm voting for Trump. I love this was people who you would expect to say that. And they said, well, what do you think about the shooting?

44:40They're like, it's not Biden's fault. It was a sad young man who was unhappy, who didn't fit in. Like they got it. Like they were not being snowed by they did this to us. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. That was just all performative by the people, by the top Republicans. I don't even think Trump believes anything because he was a troubled kid. And the bandage, it was too big. The bandage was too big. Why is the bandage so big? He needs to have it that big. Because, you know, every doctor I talk to says it just needed to be like one of those little dot ones or a very small one. And it could have been flesh colored.

45:15More prevalent. So everybody sees it. Yeah, but why? Because it's a constant reminder. It's their new logo. It's their new logo. It's too much. Visual metaphors are powerful. I actually think that's smart. It's a thirsty bandage is what it is, Scott. But, look, I agree with you. I don't think they're going to get as much of a bump or an enduring bump from the failed assassination attempt. I just don't think that's going to play out as much as people think. But having said that, there's definitely a sense that he has just a ton of momentum right now, that a lot of businesses are high-profile business leaders are backing him.

45:51Vance seems to be— They did not like Vance, those high-profile business leaders. None of the corporate people like it. Mm-mm. They are on a roll right now, Cara. They really are. I think they're peaking too early. I'm going to go with that one. They're peaking a little too early. I hope you're right. If they pick someone good and they get a nice little fun, exciting thing, it could work. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. predictions.

46:27Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction from you. So I don't know if you saw, but after the assassination attempt, Donald J. Trump - Which we decry. I'm going to do comma. Which we decry. Go ahead. I'm so upset that Megyn Kelly doesn't like me anymore. She's like me. You need to get over that. Go listen to her for five minutes. She's obsessed with all kinds of strange things. She's good at what she does. I've always liked her. Anyways, Donald J. Trump media, which has like a, I don't know, you know, the most ridiculous valuation. It's the definition of a meme stock because it's more of a meme stock than AMC and GameStop because they was technically a business.

47:05This has a$7 billion market cap with almost no revenue, just massive losses. It's basically going to become a meme stock and also a tracking stock for what people think Trump's likelihood of being reelected. And after the failed assassination attempt, the company or the stock spiked to 46. It's now down to 37. My prediction is it's going to go down to less than 30 because I think Biden's going to step down and the prospect of Trump being reelected is going to go down. And as a result, Donald Trump media, which has become a proxy for the likelihood he gets reelected or he gets elected is going to dip below 30.

47:46This is a long-winded way of saying, I believe Biden is going to step down and the likelihood that Trump will be elected is going to go down with it, as will the stock of Trump media. That's interesting. There's some interesting things happening. The SEC sued the ex-chief CEO, Patrick Orlando, for fraud. That's sort of there. At the same time, you're right, the stock soared after the assassination attempt, but ProPublica had a really interesting story about Trump Media made a deal that could secure major financial windfall for the GOP candidate. And that option is sell up to$2.5 billion worth of shares.

48:21They're going to try to get this guy money through this to convert the paper stake into something that he can use. So they're going to try everything they can to get this to funnel money to this fellow. But definitely the SEC is on the case, whether or not this sucks. Yeah, but if Trump wins, I mean, what I think shareholders are saying is, A, we like the guy and it's a way of indirectly funneling the money. But also if Trump wins the White House, it's likely or there's a non-zero probability that he will find something that traditionally would have been illegal, that he might demand that the Pentagon or that every government employee have an account on True Social.

49:05I mean, I just wouldn't put it past the guy. He's not going to be successful. His biggest challenge is going to be J.D. Vance wandering around the West Wing. That's my thing. He's the hand from Game of Thrones. That's who he has, the hand. Right. You'll see. I'm just telling you. And they use Donald Trump Jr. to get him because he's so dumb. So, all right. So, the shares are going to go down again unless he wins. No, no, no. I think what I'm saying is In the next week, I think Joe Biden steps down. And as a result, I just think it's fun. I think Donald Trump media or DJT media will dip below 30 because the likelihood of the odds that Trump is reelected go down once Biden steps down.

49:47The momentum, unfortunately, has been mostly a function of what has become increasingly apparent that the current president is infirmed and not up to the job and would likely not be reelected. And once that risk is no longer off the table, there is a greater likelihood that Democrats hold on to the White House with someone other than Joe Biden. Interesting. Interesting. You were right about Apple stock, by the way. It was on a tear. It went on a tear, tear, tear up. It just dripped, dipped in the last couple of days. But it was a two. It was on a real tear, crazy tear,$3.44 trillion with a very low P ratio, 34 or something like that comparatively.

50:25But it was on a tear and it's taken a little back the last five days. But you were right about that. So I'm going with you on this one. There we go. We'll see. There we go. We'll see. That's a good one. I like that. We'll see. Do you own Trump Social? No, no. As a matter of fact, the only time I've occasionally bet against it, but no, I would never own that stock. Yeah. Well, anyway, there you go. Good thing. So if anyone wants to play around with it, go ahead and short him. By the way, this is not financial advice. No, this is not financial advice. I just think it's fun to watch. All right. What a week.

50:54You didn't ask me about my appearance on The Daily Show. Oh, my God. Let's talk about that. That was great. You didn't think you were good. You were fantastic. No, you're being generous. I wasn't. It was with Ronnie Chang, right? Yeah. They're such nice people. Oh, stop it. You don't like anything you do. You were great. No, occasionally I do well. I know when I do well. Why didn't you think you did well? It wasn't a good format for me. He interrupted me quite a bit. You did. I just wasn't. That sent you a little off, yeah. But you recovered. Yeah, I just was. I was kind of uncomfortable. I just didn't get any rhythm.

51:23I wasn't able to get any real good points out. I mean, it was fine. It wasn't a disaster. But that show is just so meaningful. That was like one of those moments I always wanted to be on the show. And I love the cast. They're such intelligent, interesting people, the young people. You know, Jordan Kepler and who's the really impressive woman? Desi Leiden. She's hilarious. I'll be interviewing her next week for on. Oh, she's great. She's amazing. Yeah. And I really like Ronnie and I was happy to be on with him. And anyways, it was really nice. So I was really hoping I would do better, but it was really fun to be on there.

51:56He's good, but he's peripatetic. That's his energy. That's his comic energy, right? He's good with the other guy, the handsome man. What's his name? It's so funny you said that. I was really self-conscious. That guy walked out. Yeah. He said hi to me. He shook my hand, and I'm like, God, you're a handsome guy. And then I thought, I shouldn't have said that. If it was a woman, I would have commented on her looks. Anyways, I was paranoid. You'll probably think you're gay. Cue the first part of this thing. As does everyone else. You'll say, do you want to go to a gay bar? That's okay. As my first wife said, gay by day, straight by night.

52:27Oh, right. Okay. We're going to Provincetown. You're going to wear the most beautiful, colorful outfit. I'm going to buy it here for you in Nantucket. A lily plutes. Amen. Sure. It'll be great. We'll have such a good time. Okay, Scott. Everybody, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-511. One pivot. This has been so news-filled. It's exhausting, Scott. It's exhausting. Yeah, a lot going on. And there's going to be a lot more going on. Go to Nobadeer Beach. They have great food trucks.

53:01No. No. Oh, it's great. I'm leaving tomorrow morning. I've got to go back. Are you? Yeah. Nice to bed. I wish you were here. I honestly do. I had a nice time. Maybe I'll come up. When are you here? I'm there the last, you know, we don't take much vacation. We're there the last three weeks of August after Aspen. Guess what? I will be in Martha's Vineyard. I'm taking the ferry over and I'm bringing the whole frigging crew. Louie, Alex, Clara, Saul, Amanda. Who knows if my ex-wife will show up. We're all coming. We're going to all come over. We're taking the ferry. Okay? No problem. And you can take us down to whatever beach you're talking about.

53:38Okay? Yeah, you guys will love it. I'm a great host. I let everyone do their own thing and I pay for everything. Perfect host. Fantastic. We love it. Perfect host. We'll come over. We have a beautiful house in Martha's Vineyard. Okay, Scott. That's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Can you read us out?

54:19I admire you, and you don't need to lash out. This is a little embarrassing for both of us. Oh, God.