Biden on the Defensive, Trump's Threats, and Congressional Stock Trading

23:51A Democratic Senator Pete Welch became the first senator to call for Biden to exit the race in a Washington Post. I thought Bennett was before him. No, Bennett is being in the middle. He was on Caitlin Collins. He didn't quite say it. I'd like him to make a decision is what Bennett's saying. Didn't he also say that if he stays in the race, we lose the Senate and the House? He did, but he will not tell him. It's so funny to watch them pretzel themselves. Yes, he said we're going to lose. But then he didn't follow it with, so he should leave. It's the silent, so he should leave. But this guy said he should leave.

24:23Now, speaking of the most famous person who said he should leave, George Clooney, who hosted a huge fundraiser for Biden last month, is asking the president to end his candidacy in a New York Times essay writing, one battle he cannot win is a fight against time. He sounds like Scott Galloway. You know, Father Time has no time for you. He wrote this piece in the New York Times, which I thought was very good. And I think the most devastating part of it is not so much that he's a big fundraiser for the Democrats. A lot of people agree with him. Michael Douglas, who is a big Biden person who raised a lot of money, said, George has a valid point.

24:56Everyone is sort of scooching up to the line that Nancy Pelosi has allowed them to do, essentially. Apparently, Jeff Katzenberg tried to get him not to do it. Obama and he talked, but Obama didn't ask him not to do it, which is interesting. In any case, it was a huge splash. You know, it's two weeks since the debate and these calls have not gone away. So, by the way, we're recording this ahead of Biden giving a news conference at the NATO summit on Thursday evening. We'll come back if he falls down and breaks a hip. The Big Boy Press Conference, what they're calling it? By the way, that's the worst branding in history.

25:30That's the White House. I thought it was a joke. Yeah, no, it's the White House calling it the Big Boy Presser, Big Boy Conference. It was Corrine Jean-Pierre. I was like, Corrine, don't say Big Boy. Yeah, that was terrible. Don't say Big Boy. Big Boy sounds like you're teaching him how to pee, you know? Anyway, he's also set to sit down with NBC's Lester Hulse on Monday for an interview. NBC is also reporting that the Biden campaign has suffered a major slowdown in donations, so the campaign has pushed back on that. But also, George Stephanopoulos caught on the street walking around one day and after the interview was like, he can't make it four more years.

26:01He shouldn't have said that probably, but he did. And it got caught on tape. I mean, Scott, what do you think? What do you think? It's unfortunately tragically comic. But when all these Democrats keep asking Biden, urging him to make a decision, he makes it and then they ask him to make it again. Not that decision. No, is there any way you could go back and think some more and come back with a different decision? That is funny. I think so much of it is core to our flaw as a party. And that is the wonderful thing about Democrats is they're incredibly optimistic and they have this vision of what the world should be like.

26:44They want a better tomorrow. Progressive ideology or woke, whatever you want to call it, it's rooted in aspiration and hopeful things of the right to make your own decisions, to be happy. With a side order of shaming people. Yeah. To embrace who you are. But then it's like, okay, we've decided biology should adopt our views on ageism. And biology has said, hold my beer. And if it was anything, if it was a sex scandal, a crime scandal, a huge—oh, that would boost his ratings, unfortunately. If it was anything, a failed invasion, they could probably handle anything. But here's the thing. The only thing we know about this problem is that every minute of every hour of every day, this problem gets worse.

27:39And what they're not focusing on, and I thought was the most damaging thing, in my view, was in the Stephanopoulos interview, he refused to agree to take a cognitive test. Right. Although Gretchen Whitmer yesterday in another interview was like, couldn't hurt if he did it. Like, they're all like stepping around old man Biden. But Kara, if you're running for president and you're going to literally have your finger on the button and you're the front line against a global trend towards extremism and anti-Semitism and gender apartheid, and there are real serious doubts amongst your internal, your inner circle about your cognitive ability, and you're so confident that this isn't a problem, why on earth would you or your advisors not say, of course, take the – end this.

28:28Take the cognitive test. But here's the thing. The people who know him and the people who are around him and him have said, don't get near a fucking cognitive test. That's correct. I don't think I'd pass a cognitive test, honestly. But let's talk about that. He could do two things, run out the clock. That's what he seems to be doing and keeping making the decision. They don't like this decision. They never have to come out and say it versus them like walking around it sideways, which is tell your friend Michael Bennett that. Like, come on, Michael. Don't say Come on, to be clear, Senator Bennett, think of the situation here.

29:01This is an absolutely no-win situation because if you come out against him and he wins, you're persona non grata in the White House. Maybe. Maybe he's too old to do anything about it. No, no, no. You're persona non grata, the Democratic Party, you were that turncoat. If you say nothing, right, and he wins or he loses, you're fine. It's nothing but downside other than fidelity to the country right now. And Trump. So what they're all doing is they're all trying to have their cake and eat it, too. I would urge the president to speak to some outsiders and experts. Jesus Christ, grow a fucking pair.

29:38I'll tell you, the Emanuel brothers, Zeke Emanuel especially, too. His brother's been very loud-mouthed, but Zeke Emanuel's making a cognitive case, which is interesting. He's a doctor, obviously, a very famous doctor and very close to Biden. What did he say? I'm not familiar with that. Oh, he did a whole thing saying he needs to step down. He needs to fucking step down. So interestingly, Biden has gone on the offense, defiant in interviews, lashing out what he calls the elites, the Democratic Party. I don't like this Biden. I don't like angry old man Biden. Honestly, anyone who's dealt with an elderly parent, like it sucks to go up against someone who wants to do things that can't anymore.

30:14It is the worst feeling. It's the worst thing to do. They're terrible to you. And I'm not talking about anyone specifically. But, yes, I am. But I got to tell you, I don't like this, how they're going on the offense, including big boy interview. It's just astonishing how badly I think they're messaging this. Talk about it from a marketing point of view. From a marketing point of view, there would be, or a brand strategy point of view, there's two major messages or two major pieces of advice that you want to give the Biden campaign right now. And one they're doing and the other they need to do if they survive this.

30:46The first is it's actually quite smart to position that the people calling for him to step down are all these white elites. That is smart because he can say, I'm for you. I'm for now in whites. I'm fighting every day for regular people. I have continued to win for you. I will continue to fight for you. And despite the fact that a bunch of blowhard podcasters and rich white people are saying I should stand down, the cultural elites, I'm going to continue to fight for you. I think that is a smart positioning. But the voters are way ahead of Washington on this issue a long time ago, but go ahead.

31:24But that's the right to position, if you will, us as these elites trying to tell other voters what to do and him what to do. That is a good positioning. Now, the biggest and most obvious and strongest piece of advice I would give to Biden campaign, should they survive this? And I don't think they will, but should they? They can no longer ever say Biden or White House. Any communication, any messages, any labels has to come from one brand only, Team Biden. Yeah. Team Biden. This is not Joseph Biden. This is Team Biden. So his aides. So his health care aides. He's got to position it as, I have assembled the most thoughtful, talented group of people.

32:12I'm not firing them. They're not going to end up in jail. I'm not going to call them dumb as a rock. They're not going to start talking about conspiracy theory and end up in prison. I have the presidency is an ability to have instincts, slow thinking. Let's be honest, folks. I'm not as quick on my feet. but I have assembled the most talented team in the world. Every communication should come from Team Biden. Having said that, I still, Kara, I still don't think, I mean, I'm biased here. I'm too close to it. I'm curious what you think. But I think the pressure is only mounting despite all the attempts to shame everybody back into sticking their head up their ass.

32:47I don't think it's working. Well, one of the things, you know, I was just thinking this morning, of course, we're waiting for this press conference, but it's like turning on whether he can do a press conference. Like, that's where, like, let's see if he does the press conference well. Are you kidding me? Like, that to me is like, that's like, the bar is what's lower than the ground. It's like, and you're losing and you're losing. You keep losing to this felon. Like, what? What's really interesting to me, let me actually read the Zeke Emanuel thing, because I think you'll really like it. For those 75 years or older, it's time to retire from public office.

33:20Dare I say, I agree with my brother, Ari. We need a mandatory age limit for all federal elected officials and all federal judges. No one should serve past 75. Sure, some people will be capable of serving past 75, but just as FBI agents, pilots, foreign service officers, and board members at some corporations have a mandatory retirement age, so should federal elected officials and judges. In a country of 330 million, there are certainly plenty of competent people for these jobs. And practically speaking, a mandatory retirement age is administratively easy and fair. with an age minimum in the Constitution.

33:50The framers should have added an age maximum as well. Let's fix that deficiency. Perfect. We need age gating on the lower end and the higher end. Yeah. We need more ageism in this country. Yeah, right, right. So, you know, I just, it's just, I think it's going to mount. It's going to mount. And he's going to fall and break a hip at some point. I'm in Germany watching football. Like, what is your, you're in D.C. What is your sense of the momentum? Everyone is sort of like trying to look away. You know, I sent you that Desi Lydic thing from Daily Show. It's like, you know, someone shit the bed at Gwyneth Paltrow's house.

34:22Everyone is pretending. They're not pretending. They're saying he should leave, but then no one will say it, right? None of the big dogs will say it. They'll say it to you, Soto Voce. It's a lot of, what the fuck are we going to do, right? That's what it is. What the fuck are we going to do? And then they get pushed back by people like, well, what's the plan? There's a lot of, I'll tell you, the never Trumpers are very much on Biden's side saying this is a big mistake. Like Mike Madrid, who I respect a lot, or Rick Wilson. We both know. Stuart Stevens. All the Republicans are like, dope. At the same time, there's been a lot of reporting that the Trump people really want Biden to be his foe.

34:58Oh, yeah. So it's interesting. I need to talk to them because I like Mike Madrid, but he's doing too much like shaming. Like, oh, you're a bedwetter. I don't like that. Like, have a good argument. And there are a lot of people who I think are smarter, like, well, what are we going to do? I know in a room they have figured out what to do. Right. There is things to do. And I think the question is whether it's worth the risk or not. But at this point, it's just not going to go away. And everyone's waiting for him to fall. That's really that's a really bad situation. And no matter it's not the media's fault is not, you know, you and I get slathered all the time by people.

35:33And, you know, oddly enough, George Hahn just got slathered, like by saying just he's old. That's all by the sort of the blue MAGA, which is what they are. And I think it's just not going to it's not going to end well. Like, right. It's just as you can imagine, it's like age is age, as George Clooney says, age is age. And they can attack George Clooney all they want, you know, or Jon Stewart or anyone else. And I get it's all white guys. But boy, if white guys are saying it, you know, I do get that, you know, the Congressional Black Caucus is backing Biden. and the Hispanic caucus is backing him, but then some of the members don't like it.

36:08If you're not 100 % behind him at this point, it means you want him to step down, is the way I see it. Yeah. What about the other decisions? Nancy Pelosi, let me tell you, she can serve until she's 103. She's one clever. You know, what she did is, since she's not running the place, and she was so good at running the fucking place, she let the members think about it and cogitate, but once it had to happen, she brought down the hammer. What she's doing here is she's taking the pressure off Hakeem Jeffries by being the one to raise this, right? So she's like, I'll go out there and take the fire, right?

36:41But she did it in such a deft way. We're behind him if he makes a decision. We're waiting for his decision. And it's like he made a decision. Can you go decide on that more, please? It was so clever. And I know she probably tested it with all of them. They all agreed on it, which I'd love to be in that meeting where they all decide how to do it. like as a group, that would have been a hysterical meeting. Schumer's apparently, even though he goes, I'm with Joe, is apparently like maybe not so much with Joe. And he's a little less deaf than she is. Yeah, but also, don't you think these people are also worried about people starting to question their own age?

37:17Yes, they will be. Schumer's 73, Pelosi's 83. At some point, do people say, now do Pelosi? Yes, except that literally I wouldn't turn my back on that lady. But I agree. Yes. A comment, then a question to you. Okay. I had Anthony Scaramucci on the Prof G pod yesterday. Yeah. And I said, I asked him a bunch of questions about the inner workings of the White House for the 11 days he was there. And I said, who is Trump most scared of? And he said, the candidate that scares the shit out of Trump, because he's such a narcissist and he's so focused on appearances. His nightmare is Newsom. That's the call of the message he doesn't want to get, is that the Democrats have chosen Newsom.

37:59because he said he's very luxist and he's really worried about how he would appear standing next to Governor Newsom. He looked like a jab at the fucking hut. That's what he looked like. My question to you is, who is, and maybe it's they, and it's not one person, it's they, but who could march up to the White House or go public with, you've got to step down and actually move the needle right now? We know it's not George Clooney. We know it's not Michael Bennett and, you know, who could do it? Pelosi and Schumer went up there and said, just like the Barry Goldwater thing, saying they're not voting for anyone.

38:38That includes me. We're going to say something public. That could be one thing. I think Obama and Clinton, Bush, all together, something like that. Obviously, Taylor Swift. I hadn't thought about that. That's where we are. That's where we are. I mean, come on. Like, whatever you said. Oh, my God. You know, I think probably— Not in that order. Not in that order. Obama, the presidents. The presidents or Nancy and that person. You know, I think one of the problems that seems to be happening is Hunter Biden's in there, right? Pushing him. That's worrisome. I've heard that from a lot of people. Like, you know, I think you don't need family members with their own self-interest in there.

39:22And they'll—you know, it's interesting, given I'm an elderly parent. my mom, and we're all together on how we want to keep her safe, right? And even though we get slings and arrows over it from her. And I think it's really, we're doing it because we love her and it's in our interest. And in this case, it seems flipped, right? They're just like putting up with it or pressuring him in a weird way. I don't know. I'd have to get in there. I mean, they're very proud people. And some of the Biden people I know were, Kara, you've got to, you know, support our president. And I go, I can't. I just can't.

39:55I'm sorry. Like, oof. I mean, again, I think your four quadrants are correct. If he leaves and they win, he's the biggest hero in history. And if he leaves and they don't win, he's okay. If he stays and loses, it's the end of his legacy. And he has a wonderful legacy. So anyway, I think that's the story right now, at least in Washington. All right, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the GOP's new platform, what it means for tech, and take a listener mail question on choosing colleges. Ooh, that's a good one.

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41:57Scott, we're back with our second big story. The Republican National Convention gets underway next week. The party approved its 2024 platform on Monday, giving us a glimpse at what a Trump second term might look like. It sounds awful in every single way. The platform reads like a Trump rally speech and features a list of 20 promises, including stop the migrant invasion, which we're still waiting for that caravan, cancel the electric vehicle mandate, prevent World War III. Okay. The language on abortion and same-sex marriage has also been pared down and softened. Gays can stay married, apparently, according to Donald Trump.

42:30Thanks, Donald, you fucking asshole. You know, he had a rally recently where he was as loony as a, you know, it's all baked in, but he was loonier than ever. Still talking about sharks and Hannibal Lecter and all kinds of this and that. Speaking of cognitive disabilities. And I know people say we should say more about it. He is crazy, everybody. We have said it over and over again, and he's vicious. He's crazy and vicious and corrupt and a criminal. So there, I hope that's enough. What do you think about this vision that they've laid out? They're certainly trying to soften. We've been hearing a lot, thankfully, about Project 2025.

43:04In recent weeks, a proposal for massive overhaul of the federal government, getting rid of NOAA is on their list. The project backed by Trump allies, very close Trump allies, includes an expansion of executive powers, disbanding the Department of Education, shredding climate protections. Trump has recently distanced himself from the plan, claiming he knew nothing about it, which is nonsense. He also was like, I wish them good luck. It was very similar to a statement he gave about Jelaine Maxwell of the famous Epstein saying, I don't really know her, but I wish her good luck. And of course, there's 90 pictures of him with her.

43:36So what do you think about this? So as frightening as Biden's performance has been, we don't want to talk about this, but Trump has actually been very on message. He's been much more disciplined this time. And he realizes that he's basically said, if we just pivot a little bit to the metal and we're not as terribly frightening, what's going on here is we've seen before. And that's Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett in their Senate testimony confirmation hearings pretending to be reasonable. And then once they're on the court, they decide to overturn Roe v. Wade, which they said under oath in front of the Senate was established precedent.

44:14My sense is Trump is very on message. I forget the name of the woman. Scaramucci says. Susie Wiles. He said she's the most powerful woman in Washington right now. But think about it. He's gone totally quiet around the debate. He's softening the stuff around bodily autonomy. But be clear, folks, it's now one in five women have to leave their state to terminate a pregnancy. It's going to go to two in five, three in five, and maybe more. Yeah. And this whole 20, whatever they're calling it, 20, what are they calling it? 2025, Project 2025. I mean, it's, you read through it and it's. Oh, it's a handmaiden's tale booklet.

44:51It's okay. Be clear, folks. the thing about these things is we make the mistake of believing they're so fucking crazy they could never happen. No, they can happen. It can happen. So from a messaging standpoint, Trump's trying to distance himself, but it is a looking glass into what some of the most powerful people who will have the greatest audience voice and sway on the White House are thinking. Yeah, absolutely. And as I mentioned, Trump has softened the GOP's stance on abortion and marriage equality. New Platforms does not reference a national abortion ban the first time it's been omitted in 40 years of these platforms.

45:23Leave it to the States, which is almost even worse. There's no longer a reference to traditional marriage as between one man and one woman. That's been in there for a long time. Bad marketing for them. You're right. He's softening. He's softening the stance. Oh, I'm reasonable. But he is not reasonable, people. Let us be absolutely fucking clear. He will also have people in there like Stephen Miller, who are absolutely, they want to build giant camps and deport people. They want to put millions of people under under arrest for existing, essentially. There's also major implications for tech in all of this.

45:56The plan calls for fewer restrictions on cryptocurrency, all their pals in that, repealing Biden's executive order on AI, which is quite a good one, actually, and bolstering commercial space exploration. This must be the Elon Musk must have called them and put them in. It signals a laissez-faire, if not outright cozy approach to emerging sectors, as the Washington Post put it. That's all Elon Musk, so, you know, just FYI. Tech regulation is already a struggle. There won't be any tech regulation. And government investment in commercial space exploration would, of course, be a boon for Musk. And also Jeff Bezos, by the way.

46:31Now, it's interesting that some tech leaders are playing nice, some aren't, like Reid Hoffman isn't. And what was really frightening, and I know you don't like Mark Zuckerberg, but Trump threatened him in a way that sounded like a tin horn dictator. He said, posted on True Social, the election fraudsters will be imprisoned if he gets elected in November. And he name-checks Zuckerberg. Mark Zuckerberg is a lot of things, but he's not an election fraudster. And the fact that he's threatened imprisonment over his stupid election denial lies is really, I had to defend Mark. Let's just, look, if we want to take, put Mark in prison, let's bring him to trial, prove the case, do the things.

47:07Like what a legal democracy does. That's different than what Trump did here, which is heinous. Absolutely heinous. There's a clear, thick, indelible line between a democracy and fascism. And one of those lines, that there's sharp relief between an autocracy and a democracy, is that we have decided that when people are elected to power, they can't use federal agencies to go after their political enemies. And when you start threatening to put your political enemies in prison, and what he referenced was that Zuckerberg donated$400 million to nonprofits helping election offices with mail-in voting, getting falsely accused of violating campaign finance laws.

47:54By the way, he was cleared by the Federal Election Commission. This is stepping over that line into fascism. And it's not about Mark Zuckerberg. It's about President Biden has never said, I hate Elon Musk. I think he's a threat to democracy. I hate what he's doing in Ukraine. I'm sicking my DOJ on him. When you directly say, I'm going to try and put someone in prison if I'm elected, this is what. And what you're dealing with here is what happens in these societies. And unfortunately, we're so entitled and we've enjoyed so many freedoms of which we're not in touch with the sacrifice and the commitment and the expense to maintain these freedoms that we don't realize that when you're living in an autocracy, everyone goes quiet.

48:39Because when you come out against Trump and say, this is a fascist, this is a misogynist, this is a convicted felon, you risk something. And so people stop engaging in a democracy which includes open, honest debate. The downside to being open and honest around what you think of Trump is much greater than the downside to being open and honest about what you think about the true Democrat, because he's not going to pursue you as a political enemy using the full power of the federal government. So just threatening to weaponize our agencies in the government, that should be disqualifying. And everyone uses the word disqualifying.

49:20But this is what it's like to live in Iran or Russia, where people do the math and go, I don't even want to have an open conversation. I'm going to tell my children and my friends never speak out against this person because the downside is greater. Whereas there's someone who's a Democrat, oh, yeah, speak out against them because there's no downside to speaking your mind. This is what it's like to live in an autocracy. I mean, I want to be clear. I'm not scared. But the thought has crossed my mind. If Donald Trump is elected, it's not the threat of some sort of government regulation or something.

49:56I'm not saying we'd be put in jail. But do they pass legislation that is damaging to you and your family? This isn't how we move away from a democracy. Can I just tell you what just happened in the Senate Judiciary Committee right yesterday? That idiot Ben Shapiro, who I said is a very good entrepreneur, Ben. So just like, I'm sorry your dick is so small that you have to constantly attack me. But when a conservative, he testified, when a conservative competitor to legacy media arises, members of the legacy media and their political allies rush to paint such competitors as dangerous. The commentator Kara Swisher on The New York Times, for example, told the head of YouTube that my videos on Daily Wire were a gateway drug that lead children, including her teenage son, to watch neo-Nazi content, never mind the fact that I'm an Orthodox Jew.

50:44Gee, Ben, you have to stop lying about this. This is like, and he's, of course, you know, whatever, just these conservatives, they're just such liars and they create real problems. because I now I'm getting like pilloried on Twitter because I didn't do that. I said, when he asked him to me to watch Ben Shapiro, I said, absolutely. I think he's an idiot, but you decide for yourself, which I think is the correct answer to any child. You know, Alex listened and then he didn't like him. Like, that was it. That was the entire thing. And what I said that I found more troubling was not so much the idiotic Ben Shapiro content, which I continue to think is idiotic.

51:18I know you don't as much as I do. But what I said is what happened was it wasn't Ben Shapiro's fault, but the algorithm led to stuff that was really troubling. When you watched him, it kept going down a rabbit hole. It was not Ben Shapiro's gateway drug fault, Ben. I'm so sorry. You're not a drug dealer. What it was was YouTube. I was complaining about the YouTube algorithm that pushed people to worse and worse and worse things, which has been studied and studied and studied again and again. And that was what I was talking about. But this is the kind of like twisting, as I was referencing that line from Fly Me to the Moon, which is, Ben, a lie is a lie even if you believe it.

51:56I'm sorry. That is a lie that you're telling to people. You need to stop. You can call me if you like and listen again. And my whole point was that the YouTube algorithm was the problem, not you, although I personally think you're a problem. Anyway, start. Go ahead. I'm sorry. I didn't know that was happening on Twitter. This is one of those things I'm woefully ignorant about. No, it happened in the Senate. What is it? The Senate Judiciary Committee? But first off, he's using you as a dog whistle because he knows a lot of conservatives have issues with you and your viewpoint. But a larger point I think that people should draw from this.

52:30We make a lot of personal attacks. And that sounds terrible, but we say disparaging things about individuals' personal character and behavior. That is a personal attack. And I struggle with it because it's not something you want to be known for. And oftentimes people aren't able to defend themselves. So I have a code around this. And when I tell young men, their code around a personal attack or the code I follow is the following. I will only ever reference someone's individual character and behavior in a negative light on one condition. They have to be much more powerful than me because I have power now.

53:07And every day, in large part because of this podcast and you and some of the exposure, I get more and more power and more influence. And so as a general rule, a guy like Ben Shapiro, to throw you up as like red meat and mischaracterize your words is not only wrong, but even more so. Ben is actually, because of his listenership, is very powerful. And he should not be personally attacking anyone that is not. He can attack Biden. I get it. He's a commentator. He can attack George Soros. I think George Soros is more powerful than Ben Shapiro. Whatever. He can attack, you know, whatever, Macron or whatever it is he, and I don't like his political viewpoints, fine.

53:46But as a general rule, and this is going to sound sexist, as a man, men are supposed to be protectors. We're supposed to be in service. We're supposed to be, in my view, thinking about how we, before we even judge, before we even evaluate, we move to protection. That is our go-to move is protection. And if you're in a position like Ben Shapiro, you do not make personal attacks against anyone that is adjacent or below you. It's not a personal attack. He's just mischaracter. He's not calling me like a cunt. That's a personal attack. Look, I can only imagine what's happening to you on Twitter now.

54:19Well, it's just, it's just, it's not, I get that. But that's the people who follow him also. Let me just say, let me give an invitation to Ben Shapiro. Come and meet me and my son. We will explain to you what happened. And he will tell you I told him to listen to you. He didn't like you all by yourself. And maybe he likes you now. I don't know. I don't know what he listens to. He does. He's over 18. He can do whatever he wants. You know what the best thing that happened to Ben Shapiro is? What? Candace Owens. You want to talk about someone who's just fucking batshit crazy? Well, he handled that well.

54:49I have to say he did. He handled it well. He shut him or down. And now she's accusing. She's trying to keep this conspiracy theory alive. Have you heard this thing about Macron's wife? No, what? Forget it then. I don't want to bring it up. Oh, she's a beard? No, that she's actually a man. And I mean, okay, I actually, I met Candace Owens at our conference. She was very pleasant. I actually really enjoyed meeting her. I did not. I mean, okay. Well, I like on a certain level, I really want to like a woman of color who doesn't immediately fit into the stereotype of what her political view should be.

55:24I agree. She's also, I got to give it to her. She's fearless. She's compelling. She's decided to run with this conspiracy theory that is nothing but the following, conspiratorial clickbait that is anti-trans. But she does that all the time, Scott. That's the only thing I would say to you, as pleasant as she may be. But see, when Ben Shapiro, that's my point. Ben Shapiro then says, she's an anti-Semite and a weirdo. I want nothing to do with her. And she's removed. He comes across as reasonable. Okay. Let's listen to a listener question. It's a good one.

56:01This question comes from Sage. Oh, I love that name. Let's listen. Hi, Kara and Scott. My name is Sage, and I've been listening to y 'all since eighth grade. Kara, you really hooked me with Sway. I just wanted to say, excitingly, I'm going into my senior year, and you guys have been such a big influence on me. I love hearing your perspectives. You constantly challenge me to think about issues to a deeper degree. Do you guys have any advice on how to decide what colleges to apply to and where I should go? I hear you guys talking about how Alice made his choice. I would like some similar advice.

56:35Also, please share any life advice you guys have for a senior in high school, what I should be focusing on, and how do I position myself to have a fulfilled and successful life. Thank you guys so much. You're a huge inspiration. Oh, my God. Scott, we're having influence on the young people. So nice, isn't it? That's literally, other than Team England winning last night, that's the second best thing that's happened to me all week. Oh, my God. So lovely. We do have a lot of people, young people do come up to me a lot and talk about this. And they like being challenged and they like hearing disagreement done well.

57:09In any case, gosh, Sage, what a big, oh, wow. I think you're going to be fine, Sage. You're going to be fine. I think we should be asking you for advice. Just be you. That's it. That's all I got to say. No, actually, let me tell you, Jeffrey Swisher just put a picture of me in my senior year with a terrible haircut. I saw that. You little sexy minx. He's not my brother anymore. I'm turning him into the bookstore. You little, I'll have sex with the guys, but make out with the ladies. That's correct. Anyway. It's funny. Now that you're 60, you look 40. When you were 18, you look 40. You've just been 40 your whole life.

57:45That is correct. I think I must have been 16 then because I went to college at 17. You're 16 in that photo? 16. It's got to be, yeah. You look like next up on Rachel Maddow, journalist. You look 40. You look exactly the same. Anyway, let's get back to Sage. Sage, let me just tell you something. I did not get into any of the colleges I applied to. I didn't get into Stanford. I didn't get into Brown. I didn't get into Yale. Did I get waitlisted at Princeton? I didn't get into anything. And Georgetown was my backup school at the time. It was a backup school. And I regretfully, I did, I had four very good years there.

58:20But let me say, it's just, you're not going to get everything you want, right? So you never know, as we talked at the beginning of this podcast, life is random. And what you manage to get into, you know, sometimes is a good thing. It was great that I came to Washington and worked in Congress and I worked for the Washington Post. So everything follows like a river to the next thing. And so I just, I wouldn't think too hard or worry too much. Just figure out where you want to, the place you want to live, right? You want to be in a warm climate. The issue Alex had with Michigan was the cold. Weather was one of his things, but then he decided he really, really liked Michigan a lot.

58:55So I think you just decide where you want to live or what has a really good program for the things you're in. And also, you don't know your major is going to be your major. Like, you may shift. Like, I thought I was going in the CIA. I thought I was going into law or the military. And I did an opposite thing. So be open to that. And then don't like worry about it too much. Honestly, poor college seniors, people. I have a friend who I just ran into as an incoming senior, a rising senior, and I did not purposely ask them about college because they get asked that a lot. So just be nice to people that ask you about it.

59:28But I get that it's really too much. But it's not, this is just one way station along in a very long life, right? Don't worry. Just enjoy yourself. Senior year should be fun, I would think. Yeah, just picking up on what you said, it's very hard. I wish I'd learned this when I was much younger, but nothing's ever as good or as bad as it seems. And try not to fall in love with any one school. Apply to a bunch. I only had one option because I needed to live at home because I didn't have any money. So I applied to UCLA and I didn't get in and I was just devastated. And my mom said, is there anything we can do?

1:00:00And I'm like, of course, there's nothing we can do. I've been rejected. And she found out there was an appeal process and I appealed and I got in. And that's the reason I'm here with you. But apply to a bunch of schools and then be a consumer. Keep in mind, once you get into hopefully more than one school, they need you more than you need them and start playing them off against each other for financial aid. Because keep in mind, despite our cardigans and nobility in this veneer that we're public servants, we are fucking whores that will attempt to soak you and your family for all your disposable income.

1:00:29So do this. Get into two or three schools and then call all of them and say, what financial aid can you offer me? And play them off against each other. That's my advice around college, too. In terms of a core skill that you want to develop while you have some extra time, the one skill that will endure. It's not computer science. It's not civics. It's not math. It's not. It's the following. It's storytelling. So if you have the opportunity to journal, to write for your school newspaper, to give presentations, to learn PowerPoint, whatever it is, try and take some time to really, if you can, develop your communication skills.

1:01:07Because that storytelling is the core competence that will endure the test of time. And then on a personal note, the thing I wish I had done, you know, there's all these things on TikTok saying that 90 % of the time you will spend with your kids is from zero to 18. And, you know, so when your kid's 17 or 18, and I think about this a lot, I'm like, 80 % of the time I have with my 16-year-old is gone. It's probably more like 90 % because it's already spent. And I wasn't ready for it, and it's been very upsetting for me. What I would say to someone who's a senior in high school is flip that. And that is the majority of your time with your parents is coming to an end.

1:01:47And something I wish I had done, I don't know how you were. I wish I'd been kinder to my mother that last year. Because there's a very natural instinct when you're a teenage girl or teenage boy to, I don't want to say be unkind, but you're starting to rebel a little bit. And you're starting to find everything that your parents do is being really uncool. And when I look back, especially single moms struggling, I wish I'd just been a little kinder. Oh, that's sweet. I have to say my kids were kind because COVID happened. And so I spent a lot of time with them by need. That was the greatest. The only gift of COVID was that we spent so much time together.

1:02:24And then they formed a lot of bonds with my littler kids. And so that was a gift. And I agree. You should totally spend time with your parents. Parents are probably cool since you're so cool. The last thing I would say is you don't have to go to college. There's other choices, right? Oh, this young woman is going to college, Carol. I know, she is. But I'm just saying, you don't have to go that year. Like, Louis took a year off for the COVID thing. You know, you could do a lot of things. Like, don't rush into adulthood. Don't be a juvenile and spend all your parents' money. But, you know, get a job.

1:02:55You know, you could do other things necessarily. But, you know, you really do have one life. This is just one of the things on it. And that's what we should think about. Otherwise, we're glad we challenged you and a big influence on you. Again, I apologize for Scott's penis jokes, but you're going to get those in life. And so you need to start understanding that. Yeah, something tells me she's heard worse. But yeah, apply to a bunch of schools, get on the debate team, and hang out and be nice to your parents while you're still at home. Thank you, Sage. That is lovely. It makes us feel better. You're actually helping us more than we're helping you.

1:03:27Anyway, if you've got a question of your own you'd like answered and it has to be as good as Sage's, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for your prediction.

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1:04:28Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now. That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

1:05:14Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I wanted to get back to my knitting and make a prediction about business. So I think an activist investor is going to pop up at one of the most storied, strongest brands in the world. And that brand is Nike. So essentially, Nike had one of its biggest one-day stock drops. The five-year return for Nike stock is negative 13%. The S &P has doubled. It's lost half its market value in just the past three years. Net profit margins have declined nearly 2 % over the past year. It's because of hokas. Yeah, I mean, this company, it has just been hit incredibly hard.

1:05:58It's down more than 30 % year to date. It expects a 10 % decline in revenue this quarter, single-digit decline. I mean, Nike's down 30%. I think Adidas is up 20%. After reporting earnings last quarter, Nike plummeted nearly 20%, its worst trading day since going public since 1980. It has now become the worst performer in the Dow Jones Index. And when you look at the power of this brand, I mean, it's lost share, a little bit of growth to new brands, upstart brands like On Running. Did you see the Zendaya ad with the player? What's the name? My favorite is Roger Federer made more money with On. Yeah, it's her and Federer.

1:06:36That's who it is. Oh, yeah. In the On ad. It's fantastic. Federer's made more money through On than he was made in his entire career as a tennis player. But anyways, if you look at it, On Running, enterprise value to EBITDA, On trades at 48 times. Decker's, the owners of Hoka, is at 22. Adidas is at 29. Nike is at 17. And Nike's average over the last five years is 27. So in addition to the underperformance, the stock has been beaten up enough that I think it's now a very juicy target for an activist. Oh, interesting. So my prediction isn't that Nike will continue to underperform or overperform.

1:07:12My prediction is that one of the greatest global brands over the last 30 years, its Ebitda or its valuation is now at a point where it's becoming a dinner bell for an activist. So my prediction is in the next 90 days, somebody is going to file a 13D and say, hi, we're here and we're concerned at Nike. Yeah, that's, you know, the CEO is John Donahoe, who is a tech CEO. He was at a bunch of different tech companies. I know him pretty well. I do have to say, I know some Nike people and they have been complaining about him for a while that he doesn't, he's not. He's got the support of Phil Knight and that's who's the founder.

1:07:47And that's what he's got. But I've heard a lot of disgruntlement within Nike about him. I just literally recently heard from like six or seven people there. And I like John, but he's definitely having a troubling time. It's a really interesting problem. It would be unprecedented, something like that lost market share, correct? They're facing some of the same problems like an Estee Lauder, right? I think China's 10 or 15 % of the business, China's down. But Nike, which is an incredible brand, the space has actually done pretty well as a whole. So investors, I would bet that John, he has 12 months to figure this out.

1:08:29Otherwise, he will be removed from his position. but this is a classic activist. One, some of the biggest players in the world like an Elliott or Nelson Peltz, the thing they're gonna love about this is because it has$111 billion market cap, they can put a billion dollars to work here and no one even notices. And what they'll do is they'll come in and they'll say, hi, we're here. We love the brand. There's tremendous value to be unlocked here. And we're quote unquote concerned. And they'll basically meet with John and say, what are your plans, John? And based on that meeting, They'll either go, okay, he's hit a rough patch, but he's the right guy.

1:09:06And they'll say, okay, we're giving you 12 months to figure it out. Or they're going to go, our worst fears have been realized here. I mean, they can go, they meet with Salesforce and they meet Mark Benioff and they go, okay, this guy's smart. He just got, he shoved too many calories down the esophagus of this company. They need to trim some fat. We'll give them some cloud cover to make some hard decisions. And boom, I think the stock's up 50 or 80 % since whatever, since Elliott went in there. They leave. Thanks very much. or they're going to go in and say, this is the wrong guy and go hostile right away.

1:09:36But this brand, there are so few iconic brands of this stature, this heritage, this legacy that have seen their value cut in half. It's just too tempting for an activist not to come in here. Oh, great, great prediction. It's really interesting. I have a little prediction. You and I are going to be in the theater on November 22nd when Gladiator 2 comes out. Have you seen the trailer? I was not expecting you to say that. I understand that. It's Paramount Pictures. Yay, Paramount. It's going to be a big... It looks so good. It's Pedro Pascal. This guy, Paul Mescal, who's playing, is in it. And Denzel Washington.

1:10:10Wow. It looks so fucking good. It's like, I'm so excited. I'm going to take you to the opening if I get invited. I will get invited to the opening because I happen to know David Ellison, so I'm going to demand it. Even after all the shitposting we've done on Paramount, do you know the Ellison kid? They're going to invite... I'm going to be talking to David Ellison, I suspect, hopefully. Great. We're going. And David Allison, we would like tickets to the opening. We want to go to the big premiere. We'll dress up in Gladiator outfit. We will go. We'll bring Sage with us. I've been calling everybody I know trying to get finals to the championship in Berlin.

1:10:41The other movie I'm excited about is Beetlejuice. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. That's coming out. Justin Theroux's in it. Yeah, I love Justin Theroux, and I think he's super talented. Yeah. It's a sequel. Yeah, so I'm excited about that. Anyways. It looks fantastic. Yeah. Anyway, I know sequels are kind of tired, but I don't care. Gladiator is my favorite movie of all time. And that other two looks fan-fuckin-tastic. Pedro Pascal, that's all you got to tell me, in like Sword and Sandals. He's great. Anyway. Sword and Sandals. I love Sword and Sandals. I watch The Robe. I watch all the Sword and Sandals.

1:11:13I watch Ben-Hur. I love them all. I love them. Every single one of them. Anyway, I am Spotacus. Okay, Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Would you please read us out?

1:11:54Your time with your parents is not coming to an end, but it's going to substantially decrease. Leave on a high note. Be nice. Be calm. Hey, Mom. Hey, Dad. Let's grab dinner.