Crypto Pardon, Amazon Automation, and Reagan Tariff Ad

24:01This is the most important element of Ellison's burgeoning media empire, of course. You know, what's going to happen here? But I don't know what it means. I guess they just decided, give it to him, what's the difference, right? Like, we don't need this. And if we can get everything else. I mean, there was an interesting, I've read a lot of the analysis of this, and basically what they've decided to do as every other leader, including leader of Japan, is to flatter him, to compliment him, and then get what you want, right? essentially, which is kind of depressing. They've just figured them out pretty easily.

24:39The Chinese, you're absolutely right, are in it for the long haul. So we'll see what they have to say. The TikTok thing is what I'll be paying attention to, but we'll see if they do something. What I think Trump is trying to do, it's so interesting because presidents all start out locally and end up in foreign places doing these trips. And I think Trump is very comfortable acting like he's a big BMOC across the world, essentially. And so these leaders have figured out a way to please him. It's kind of sad. It's like pleasing an old man. Like, let's pet him and this and that. So we'll see. We'll see what happens here.

25:18Here's my prediction. He's going to go up to the DMZ and go visit his friend in North Korea. So we'll see. He's so close. I can't imagine he would, you know, he keeps talking about him. He talks about him in a nicer way than he talks about other Americans, which is really kind of depressing given he's a dictator and not just an autocrat, even worse than that. Well, those are his role models. He's very much about strength. And again, he conflates strength with coarseness and cruelty and authoritarianism. And that's not, it's just a terrible, it's a terrible. And the problem is he's been successful in the short term at it.

25:53He's won the presidency twice. Everybody's falling in line behind him. and it's out of the authoritarian playbook. Reward the people who are loyal to you, punish severely the people who aren't loyal to you. And the 53 Republican senators are all going along with it, as are the majority of the House of Representatives. There's been a few notable breaks. Senator Paul is questioning us bombing boats. We spend a trillion dollars on our military that's supposed to be so lethal, and yet we're not pushing back on a murderous autocrat. In Europe, we've decided to bomb fishing boats. Anyway, we're going to go on a quick break.

26:28When we come back, this is a story that I think is not getting nearly enough attention. We'll discuss the latest crypto pardon.

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29:42Scott, we're back. President Trump has pardoned Shang-Peng Zhao, better known as CZ, the founder of the crypto exchange Binance. CZ pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating anti-money laundering laws and served four months in a federal prison while Binance paid$4.3 billion to settle with the Justice Department. CZ has been working on a pardon for months. There seems to be a playbook here with the Trump people, hiring lobbyists with ties to Trump and making podcast appearances, praising the president. Binance is also a key backer of the Trump family's, this is the key one, crypto venture. World Liberty Financial helped launch its stablecoin earlier this year.

30:19In a post on X, CZ said he was grateful to Trump and pledged to help make America the capital of crypto. I assume Sam Bankman-Fried is next. What do you think of this? Because we've been talking a lot about how this focus on crypto with his family. sort of larding itself over in money and just money, really. I think it's important to understand why CZ was incarcerated. And he was incarcerated because Binance was found guilty of laundering money. And that sounds somewhat innocuous, but according to the Department of Treasury, Binance failed to report the following. Transactions associated with terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda, ISIS, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

31:04Millions of dollars in ransomware transactions. Binance is one of the largest receivers of ransomware proceeds. Transactions associated with child sexual abuse materials. So people hear about sextortation and think that is the most heinous crime ever. Well, folks, there's a technological infrastructure behind it. And money laundering with funds that can't be tracked is part of it. And then transactions associated with drugs, fraud, and other illegal contraband. His official charges were, again, around money laundering. And he'd served four months. And Binance was barred from operating the U.S.

31:42But here's what they did. Binance received a$2 billion investment from the Abu Dhabi investment firm MGX. And then Binance decided to accept the investment via World Liberty Financial USD1 stablecoin, which, by the way, was controlled and still and the majority stake is still connected in World Liberty Financial USD1 is still connected to the financial wealth and buttressing the financial wealth of Trump and his family, which owns 38 percent of World Liberty Financial. So put another way, make me richer and I will let the person that a judge and jury and our institutions decided to incarcerate because he was facilitating transactions to terrorists and people engaged in child sex exploitation.

32:31I'm letting that person out if you agree to make me and my family richer. And because this feels very circular and complicated and we're so busy watching stupid fucking videos of a construction project at Pennsylvania Avenue, we take our eye off the ball. There's going to be more kids who are going to be in scams, send naked pictures of themselves, and then be extorted, and then potentially engage in self-harm because the people on the other end can find a means of transacting these payments and this exploitation. You know, if you're watching a Bond movie, CZ is the one he ends up golfing in the end.

33:14Like, he's the money laundering, you know, mogul, essentially. And so, this was a criminal act, this guy. There were bombing fishing boats. Most people in crypto think this too, by the way, FYI. So it's sort of a, you know, they've just decided crypto good no matter what. And it's like saying banking good or whatever. There's all kinds of bankers that are culpable in these kind of things, by the way. It's not just limited to crypto. But this is just, this was such a straight line grift. It's just like absolutely out in the open. and everything's out. Even if, I agree with you with all the hand-waving around the White House thing, which I'll talk about later, but it's really, this one really deserves more attention, especially for what this company did.

34:06This company did, and I assume Sam Bankman-Fried is next, who is comparatively minor compared to this guy, right? That was just your basic, I made a mess, I didn't realize that that was his excuse. But there's a whole way to get a pardon from Trump. Yeah, but he doesn't have the power right now. FTX doesn't have the platform or the power to make the Trumps rich. This is, to a certain extent, there's sort of, I don't want to call it low-calorie corruption, but when Eric goes over and says, build a hotel and give me better financing terms and finance it, somebody still has to build the hotel. There is some risk.

34:43It's corruption. But what they found is, if we're going to be corrupt, let's just figure out a way to pump up a synthetic currency that has no value underlying utility. And then we don't even have to report when we sell it. And nobody has to operate it. And we don't even have to pretend that we know how to be in the hospitality business. We don't have to build it. We just get people to basically funnel money into it, massively inflate the market. We sell, nobody even knows we've sold. And boom, this is the most elegant, clean, frictionless form of corruption. So they're like, okay, Nancy Pelosi that does insider trading, but you have to report those trades.

35:20Okay. Trump, who gets a 747, we actually see the 747. He's got to fly it around. He's got to justify it. No, this is easier. Nobody even really, there's no records of this. As far as we know, we think they've made three to$5 billion off these crypto scans, but it's even hard to tell how much money they've made. We don't know how to connect it to, we know when the Qatari government says, give us NATO-like protection after giving the president a$400 million plane, we can connect the dots. But when he launches a meme coin and someone calls him and says, FYI, tomorrow I'm going to buy a billion dollars or$100 million worth of Trump coin, which will take the price up.

36:01And if you want to sell some, that's your business, Mr. President. But in addition, would you mind not shipping Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine for a while? We're not able to connect those dots. There's no public filing disclosure. Well, you know what? Actually, I've heard from a lot of people. A lot of people in crypto don't love all this stuff because the hammer is going to come down on this industry again. I thought the Biden administration was too slow to embrace some of the good parts of it. I talked to a lot of crypto people. and the reason was because it has such a proclivity towards what you were just talking about, money laundering and sexual abuse and terrorism and payoffs and stuff like that in terms of the ability to disappear a lot of these transactions.

36:46But it was on its way, you know, and Biden was unnecessary, Biden administration was unnecessarily harsh on this group of people. But I think an abundance of caution, I don't think it was a particular hostility to it. It was just more of the worries about the downside versus the upside. And I just feel like the hammer will come down on this industry after this is all over. And the second part is I've been told by a lot of tech people that there are people monitoring what is happening here. And there are ways to follow the money. There's always ways. And quietly they're doing that. And eventually some of these people are going to pay.

37:27We'll see. But, you know, just all you have to do is pay this guy off to get out. And speaking of which, the one that also troubled me was tech and business leaders are getting credit for coordinated effort to stop Trump from sending troops to San Francisco. Mayor Daniel Lurie reportedly worked with Sam Altman, Jensen Wong, Mark Benioff, and others to get the president to reconsider. Trump acknowledged the lobbying in a true social post saying he got calls from friends of mine that decided not to surge San Francisco, as he put it. But I find this repulsive, this strategy, is that, you know, I'm not, you know, I've been in touch with Benioff recently about this whole, the whole thing with the troops.

38:04And he knows what I think, which is that he should have never called for them. But none of you get a thank you for telling a bully not to do something that's stupid, right? I don't want my democracy to be run because these guys can call him up or go to a dinner or give him money. But, you know, this was the wrong thing to do for all these cities, including San Francisco. And the fact that the only way it gets saved is these guys' column. Like, what in the world? No one's making decisions based on the right thing to do. It's based on these incredibly powerful people who have access. And then the regular Americans don't have access to make their argument one way or the other.

38:48But this is, I find this truly disturbing. And, you know, none of them has said, you should thank me, Kara, because I'd be like, go fuck yourself. Like, how dare you that this is the way things are done? I just I find it something quite vague, just disturbing about this. This is how this is how it's done, done, done, as they say in K-pop demon hunters. But Mayor Lurie trying to enlist local business people to lobby the president to not send in the National Guard and create disruption and terrorize local residents. Kudos to him, I think that's the right thing to do. The problem is they're operating in a context that's illegal and non-American.

39:31And that is, Barry Goldwater said this. He said, we're placing too much power in the office of the presidency. The whole point of a democracy is you have a diffused sense of power such that there's checks and balances. And that, unfortunately, you don't go as fast, but it prevents the tragedy of the commons. And if you're going to send in the National Guard into cities, there needs to be some sort of oversight or there needs to be some sort of legal justification or systemic laws that say this is when the National Guard can be sent into a city and what its mission is. Not, well, I don't like the mayor here.

40:06I don't like the governor here. Or Epstein's starting to creep back into the news. I need to launch the National Guard or pulse the National Guard into a city. This is, I mean, it's just so, I can't imagine, and I don't know how much of it I'm convinced now that, you know, and I've said this before, we're just going to be so angry at the mind control that these algorithms have over us, and we don't even realize how much. The most upsetting things I see, I think, is that true? Is all of that footage of ICE agents. I just find it, the idea that these guys are in masks, the idea, there's a basic principle that is so core to our democracy and what is wonderful about America, and that is we target and reward people based on their behavior, not their identity.

40:56And that is we say, okay, if you're a gay woman and you're great at what you do and you take risks, you can make a lot of money and have a nice life here. and we aren't going to start rounding up people or asking them, are you born here, which the ICE agents are doing, because they're brown when they're on their way inside to Kroger's. Yeah, every one of these agents seems like a brute, right? I feel like I'm in some, like, Steven Seagal movie with bad people. Like, you know, the way they're talking to people and how the masks and the... They look like they've had way too many steroids, every one of them.

41:35Like, it feels so villainous. And it's either villainous or you got to be a rich guy to get through. And it does feel un-American. When I heard that, that Sam Altman had to call him to call him off, that's our line of defense. Not because it's not, I just was like, this is ridiculous. Well, it kind of goes to the same thing now where because of the government shutdown, rather than saying, okay, there's a government shutdown. You need to negotiate with a co-equal branch of government. It's like, no, I'll just get my rich friend to pay the military and the people I like in the government. This is not how you're supposed to run a government where individuals, where the president gets to decide, you know, who in the government gets paid and who doesn't.

42:18And he can call someone and say, hey, I look really bad here. Can you give me$100 million? And by the way, wink, wink, I'll make it up to you with a series of laws that transfer wealth from small and medium sized businesses and your competitors to you. That is, and over the, it might even not impact the economy that much in the short run because the economy turns on. But what it does over the long term is a lot of people don't want to invest here. A lot of people don't want to immigrate here. A lot of people don't want to start businesses because they're worried that they're not going to be protected by the rule of fair play and law.

42:49I don't think Americans realize how many really talented people come here and how much capital comes here because they feel that there is a rule of fair play here. that their business, there isn't going to be a phone call. Rule of fair play. I met a guy, I met this Russian kid who came over here and he'd started one of those home delivery companies and he made a bunch of money. He was a successful entrepreneur in Russia. He had a wonderful life. I said, why did you move here? He said, you live in fear in Russia that someone you don't even know makes a call and your business is done the next day.

43:21And you don't even know who made the call. And that's what's effectively, we're headed that way. Right, I know. For some reason, this just stuck in my craw. Thank God Benioff didn't text me like you want to say thank you. I'd be like, go fuck yourself. I don't mean that, Mark. But honestly, seriously, this is not the way it should be done. Speaking of things that are, another thing that, speaking of robots, which I'm just, I'm seeing a lot of robot companies here, by the way. Amazon executives believe the company can replace more than half a million warehouse jobs with robots. Because this is where it's heading.

43:55I'll go into it in a second. With robots over the next several years, according to internal documents obtained by the New York Times, documents show Amazon's robotics team has an ultimate goal to automate 75 % of its operations. I bet it's even higher. They reveal Amazon is planning to manage public backlash by promoting, quote, good corporate citizen image, participating in community events like parades and toy drives. Executives also discussed ditching words like automation and AI instead using advanced technology and co-bots, collaborative robots. Amazon says the documents viewed at the times were incomplete and did not reflect its overall hiring strategy.

44:32Let me tell you, years and years ago, and I was looking for the pictures, I was going to show it to some people here. After Amazon bought Kiva, which was, I thought, a critical purchase at the time. It was a logistics, it was a robotic, moved things around the factory. And Amazon, for some reason, invited me in to see the factory. And I went to see it and watched these Kiva, I think they were Kiva-powered robots moving stuff around. And they had people in the factory, but a lot of it was automated, obviously. And it's pretty cool when you see them put on labels or put on whatever. It was quite an automated factory.

45:09And I guess publicly I said, they're moving towards no people in these warehouses. This was about 10 years ago. You could see. They're so smart. You could see what they were doing, right? And I remember one of the Kennedys who was representing Massachusetts, I can't remember which one it was, was saying, oh, they're going to put an Amazon warehouse in my district. I'm like, they're not going to have people in it. And I remember Amazon calling me and saying, don't be saying that. And I'm like, but that's what's, it seems so obvious to me. And so this is where they're going with these. There will be no people in Amazon warehouses or very few people.

45:48And then pretending otherwise seems kind of ridiculous because they've really, they're really quite good at it. And they're a logistics company more than a commerce company. And here in Korea, I was just in a thing called Robot Valley. I mean, robotics do not get enough attention compared to AI, but AI combined with robotics is really like one of these amazing and also terrifying breakthroughs for humanity, it seems to me. But I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I agree with you. It's a similar issue to all these data centers that Congress people are excited to get in their district. But the reality is you could turn the lights off during the day because there's nobody working there.

46:27There's some labor involved in building these things. But once they're up and running, they're just a huge draw on the local electric or power supply, and they don't create a lot of jobs. I think robots and automation are in many ways—it's always the shit you're not expecting that impacts you to the upside and to the downside. I actually think the more important technology over the next 24 months that would be the best bet for America is not GPT-5. I think it's GLP-1. I think that would be a better bet for America if they put GLP-1 in the hands of every obese person in a low-income home. And I think robotics, to your point, are in some ways more important than AI, because I think that Jeff Bezos and Dara Khashoggi dream of a lack of drivers and factory workers.

47:17I think they think, okay, think about the majority of the bad press that Amazon has probably received in the last 10 years. A lot of it is stories of these delivery men in vans who have pee bottles and aren't paid well. Or in the warehouses. And have to hit quotas and have health insurance. And I got to be honest, I'm here for it. I would love to see AI pilots in planes. If you look at the majority of, and it won't happen because of psychological reasons, but if you look at the majority of plane crashes, and there's very few, they're almost always pilot error. And so there will be job creation, though.

47:51There will be people that have to program and build these things and service them. It'll be a higher wage job. But the story of America is that the low wage, low value add production jobs slowly but surely get screened out as we move from an agrarian to a manufacturing to a services to a quote unquote innovation economy. I think it's a good thing. I think the problem with America is that we're not very good at retraining and supporting the people on the wrong end of that trade. We're very much winners and losers. Like, sorry, boss, it's the Hunger Games here. But I think it'll be America. Actually, if you look at the economy right now, it's a giant bet on AI.

48:28But there has been some real investment in manufacturing of our industrial base. And I think the only way we compete with China is to have these types of factories. Oh, China's way ahead on this stuff. I mean, all of Asia is in a lot of ways. And again, AI gets all the attention, but AI combined with robotics is really – there can be – let me say, there's sort of a thing called human-centric robots where it's not replaced – not just getting our coffee and this and this. It's called a sex doll. Okay. That's right where you go to. But I'm talking – the stuff I was – the exoskeletons to help people walk better, to help the elderly.

49:02Like, eventually, there's all manner. And one of the things, I had a really interesting discussion with Alex, who is a mechanical engineering student. And he's like, why do robotics have, like, Elon Musk is, they laugh at Elon Musk here in Korea, I have to tell you. Because he's like going, I'm going to make Optimus, going to make these, you know, humanoid robots. They don't have to look like humans. Like, the real changes are in places like what Amazon has done, which is they're robots. They're just not the robots you think of from science fiction. You know, doing a hand, like, Alice was like, why does a dog walking robot have to look like a person?

49:38In fact, that's hard. They fall over the hand, it's funny. Like, it can look at, like, automation is a very, and I think, actually, automation is the right word, right? That's actually, instead of calling it advanced technology, it's automation. But there's all kinds of ways robotics are going to affect us, and especially when it's now, like this one thing I was wearing, it uses AI to collect data in real time about my body movements, which would then calculate how these robots should be adjusted per person in real time. And it used to be they'd have to be adjusted individually, but they don't have to anymore.

50:19Same thing with cars, same thing. So the combination is really both deadly to jobs and at the same time, breathtaking in terms of savings, like what it's going to do. So each year, and this is a thinly veiled ad, I do my predictions deck. And that is sometime in November, I put together a deck and I say, these are my predictions for the oncoming year in society, stock market, technology. And each year I pick one of the big 10 companies, one of the Magnificent 10, or one of the big four, actually, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, or Alphabet. And I say, this will be the best performing stock and this is why.

50:53Last year I picked Alphabet. It's up 60 % in the last year. Well done. Thank you. Pat myself on the back. This year, my pick is probably going to be Amazon. And that is it hasn't, it's actually hasn't performed very well the last couple of years. But traditionally, their margin expansion has been powered by AWS and the unsung hero of business, and that is Amazon Media Group running the ads on the platform, and they force retailers to run ads, and it's very high margin. Now, the margin expansion is happening in retail. For over a decade, the fulfillment and shipping costs ballooned more quickly than sales, decreasing margins, and then that reversed two years ago, and retail sales are now growing faster than shipping costs.

51:39That's because they got everyone to use Prime, right? They got everybody in on it. They were losing money on Prime, I would assume. But also because robotics and the huge investment they've made in robotics is finally delivering operational leverage. Amazon expects to save about, I think, about$13 billion from 2025 to 2027 as a result of automation. And assuming no change in Amazon's enterprise value to EBITDA multiple, as you can tell, I'm doing a lot of work on this, that translates to roughly$200 billion extra in enterprise value. Plus, it expects to sell twice as many products by 2033. I think all the investments they've made in automation coupled with robotics and AI, they're about to get huge leverage.

52:23So whereas ads in AWS have added all the margin, I actually think retail is about to be where they expand their margins. That's interesting. I think it's going to go across the entire country, actually. One time I was visiting Kentucky and they were talking about Silicon Holler and all this stuff and bringing back coal. Remember, Trump was bringing back coal. And I stood up and I said, they're going to bring it back by robots. What do they need you for? Like you get sick. It's bad for you to be mining coal. And again, I was cut off. Like, don't say that. I'm like, well, of course they're going to use robots or whatever, automation.

53:02I don't care what word you use. But what's astonishing is how good Korea and China and all these countries are. And they're really making investments in robotics. And you're absolutely right. Amazon has been far ahead of any other. There are lots of manufacturing. That's how we return with manufacturing. But it's not going to be with people at all. But I would describe the last few years in terms of robotics as it relates to the retail as the investment phase. And it hasn't delivered – it's been expensive and it hasn't delivered the leverage yet, but I think that's pivoting and switching. And the stock, even though it's up 20 % in the last year, it's underperformed its competitors.

53:41Amazon typically trades at a five-year average P.E. multiple of 60, and right now it's trading at 34. Anyways, I think that leverage, the fact that it's reasonably priced – anyways, I'm excited about Amazon over the next 12 months. Oh, I'm glad you've been focused on this. This is interesting. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. And when we come back, we'll talk about Argentina's election results.

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56:40Scott, we're back with more news. The payoff of Donald Trump to help the Argentinian economy has helped. Argentina's president, Javier Malay's party, swept the country's midterm elections, winning 40 % of the votes. They had to get above 35, compared with around 24 % for the main oppositions, which are the Peronists, who had been running Argentina badly for many years. President Trump endorsed Malay earlier this month and said a$20 billion currency swap bailout from the U.S. was contingent on his midterm success. Trump took Truth Social to congratulate Malay, saying he's making us all look good.

57:13And don't worry about the cost of the bailout. But let's listen to the comforting words of Treasury, the thirstiest Treasury Secretary I've ever seen, Scott Besant, on Meet the Press this weekend. It is America first because we are supporting a U.S. ally. There will be no taxpayer losses. This is a swap line. This is not a bailout. Well, this is working. I mean, this helped him, I think, quite a bit in the thing. And there's been a lot of pain, what he's doing. some of which is it should have happened because Argentina has had like enormous inflation and things like that. But he's doing it in sort of this incredibly brutal way.

57:56So how talk about talk about this would explain what what Besant was saying here with this is a swap line. This is not a bailout. Well, I believe we're just exchanging dollars for pesos, but the peso has the habit of totally crashing and devaluing. it has been a fucking disaster despite an incredible blessing of natural resources, really good universities, an amazing culture, great natural resources. They have just been fucked over and over by kind of socialist corrupt governments. The country has entered into IMF rescue programs 23 times since 1956, more than any other nation. This nation has been bailed out more times than any other nation by the IMF.

58:39The most recent major IMF loan to Argentina was for $57 billion in 2018, and it failed to stabilize the economy and led to a default just two years later. Over the past 50 years, Argentina has defaulted nine times. So basically every five and a half years, this country defaults, which has resulted in constant hyperinflation and peso devaluation. In the past year alone, the peso has fallen more than 350 % against the U.S. dollar. I guess the way to say that is the U.S. dollar has increased 350 % against the peso. So, and this is, let's call this for what it is. This is Trump bailing out one of his friends.

59:19Yeah. Same thing. Like, same thing. But it's not even about Malay. It's about Rob Citrone, a longtime associate of Treasury Secretary Bessent, who runs a hedge fund and has significant exposure to Argentine bonds and stocks. And what does it do? Again, this is about fucking corruption. The bailout props up these prices, offering a crucial window or exit to mark up the investments of his buddy, who will make a huge donation to the Trump campaign. Stan Druckenmiller, Bessent's former mentor at Soros Fund Management, is also involved. His Duquesne family office was recently disclosed as the second largest investor in Argentina's main exchange traded fund.

59:58Citron, meanwhile, has made Argentina his biggest bet in Latin America. This is just, you're, you're, this is literally an orgy of corruption. It really is. It's just. And, and we're the ones that get like a$5 tip and have been fucked so many ways. And we just leave the party, you know, you know, naked and like abused. And that's basically anyone that doesn't get to hang out in the mansion, who's not willing to fillet the big fat man. I mean, it's just to think that this isn't going to cost other hedge funds looking for true alpha and looking for investments to think that somehow we're not going to end up bailing them out again.

1:00:40And to think about how just moronic this is, we put a tariff on China, which makes no sense. They're smart. They go, I know, I'm going to go for your heart and lungs. I'm going to go after the red states and the people who voted for you four to one, the farmers, and we're going to stop buying all of your soybeans. Those farmers go out of business, right? And who do the Chinese get their soybeans from now? Mm-hmm. Argentina, where we're - Soybean farmer. We're getting, I mean - Did you see that? Pessant calling himself a soybean farmer. Yeah, he's a soybean. He's worth a half a billion dollars.

1:01:11Yeah, he's literally, you are my wife? Goodbye, city life. Yeah, I mean, yeah. Anyone who's not real old like us doesn't get that. That's Green Acres. Yeah, doesn't get that. By the way, that guy, that guy, what was his name? Eddie Albert. He was a very successful spy, a true patriot. That guy led a very impressive life. And yet he ended up on Green Acres. It's the place to be. Farm living is the life for me. That was right before the Beverly Hillbillies. Oh, my God. I had that whole song in my fucking head. Anyway, go ahead. And it was what we were talking about. The orgy of corruption. We're bailing out, we're punishing farmers with sclerotic trade policy and then taking money and sending it to the new supplier of soybeans, Argentina.

1:01:58That money, it's unlikely. Argentina needs structural reform. To Malay's credit, he is implementing structural reform. He is. I think he's kind of exactly what Argentina needed. He would have won without Trump. But because of Trump, I think he got more seats, more total power. and I think you can pretty much write off a prediction. You can write off 30 of that$40 billion. It's gone. Nothing's going to get in the way of the peso devaluation over the short term. This is an economy of structural issues. I hope they come out of it. I was an investor in a company that used to hire these amazing engineers from the Cordova University or University in Cordova, Argentina and the funniest thing was we had a down quarter and we were cutting the budget.

1:02:43It was a company called Olapik which we ended up selling It was a big win. Great. Three really super intelligent guys, two Spaniards, one Argentinian guy. And the Argentinian guy was in charge of the engineering team. And we could get great engineers for like 40 grand instead of 140 or 240 outside of Cordoba. And the only line item that we could never cut was the asado budget. That was beef. Every Friday, they had asado, they had beef for all of the engineers. And that was like the only thing you were never allowed to touch. This was the key to the entire culture was their beef. Well, you know, when I was looking at that before this, besides the Trump payoff, I think it did help him.

1:03:22I think absolutely the money that he was getting from Trump. But one of the things was, everyone was like, oh, he's going to lose. I'm like, but the choices, the Peronists were terrible. Like 80 years of shitty management. I don't see that being the option. So he was the only option in a lot of ways, even though it's taking its toll. He's also crazy. Like, he seems insane. But, you know, there you go. There you have it. We'll see what happens there. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

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1:05:27Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. Well, my fail is it's a specific issue of a much larger trend that has become the zeitgeist in our economy, and that is the NBA gambling scandal. Oh, yeah. So Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier, I believe his name is, and Portland Trailblazers head coach Chauncey Billups were among 30 arrested in an FBI investigation that uncovered a poker rigging and illegal betting ring. Many politicians, as well as the NBA commissioner Adam Silver, have increased calls to Congress to tighten regulations around sports gambling. Since the 2018 Supreme Court decision overturning a federal law that prohibits sports betting outside of Nevada, 38 states have legalized gambling on sports.

1:06:04By the way, the first thing that happens when you legalize betting in a state is bankruptcies go up 20 to 30 percent. Wagers on sports hit$160 million last year, making it larger than the lottery. One in four adults say they personally bet money on sports. And by the way, last year, one in two men just bet on the Super Bowl. And one in 10 U.S. adults have placed a bet using an online sports book. Despite the proliferation, Americans see betting as a bad thing. 43 % of U.S. adults agree that legal sports betting is a bad thing for society compared to just 34 % who read three years ago. And this, it preys on, and I don't want to infantilize young men, but they're more risk aggressive.

1:06:45And when you put a dopa hit and betting in their pocket, it is in godlike technology. And basically every ad now, when you turn on this TV to watch Premier League, is 10 pounds free when you sign up for 25 pounds. And folks, they make it impossible to win over the long term. If you're good at it, they basically don't let you bet anymore. And the newest trend in sports betting, which will probably have the greatest appreciation and market cap in private companies, is predictions markets. And currently, a case is making its way through the courts to decide the future of sports betting on prediction markets.

1:07:19And prediction market weekly volume is about$2 billion, with about a fifth of the coming from sports betting, the highest category volume. anyways the but but on a bigger level meta level it's it it it essentially is more indicative of our economy and that is we're we're the economy now resembles vegas and that the house it's not a thing it's just betting it's like crypto it's not a thing it's not a making a thing it's a it's something else what would you call it it's an economic activity it's just not productive Well, the houses always win. And the machines are narrative. Platforms, hot tech, IPOs, meme coins, dudes in hoodies pitching the next big thing.

1:08:03And it's value, our value in the economy now is not derived from character or hard work. It's from attention and speculation rather than goods and services. And then the traditional levers of power, business innovation, labor productivity, real estate growth, they all recede and young people no longer aspire. So empty calories is what you're saying. Yeah, and they don't develop the means, they don't develop the will, and they don't develop the patience for enduring value. Scammy. Why actually figure out a way to get through all the regulations and build a building when you can go get it financed from Qatar by monetizing the White House?

1:08:37Or why even do that when you can just launch a mean coin? And then essentially, it means the winners get, you know, the winners, a small group of people who can owner control or monetize healthcare, monetize the government win. and the losers get stuck with the odds.

1:08:57So we have godlike technology in gambling that's the DOPA hit. For the majority of our time on this planet, we haven't had access to free, safe play and gaming. So when we have it, we go crazy with it. Also, there's people telling us we can be rich and we can be popular and we can get women and they hit you at exactly the wrong time when you're most vulnerable and you're just seeing more and more people have their lives ruined by this shit. And then the broader loss is that our economy is becoming about synthetic risk-taking, not enduring value, not the hard work, the labor to build a company, to invest in relationships.

1:09:38You get a quick hit from this kind of gambling or casino-like economy. And I think it's creating, I think it's just creating the wrong values and it's an erosion in the character of long-term thinking. No, we're a casino. But, okay, so what's your win? What is my win? You go first. I've got to think of one. You know, I have so many fails happening at this time, at this moment. But probably Jamaica and Haiti and Cuba with the hurricanes. They had it our way. We're going to have a lot more hurricanes. And it sounds like Category 5 is going to hit this place. So my thoughts are with the people there.

1:10:19It seems very dire what's happening there. And of course, we've cut back on all kinds of really important, speaking of important things we do monitor. This is, I just feel a sense of unease for them and also our own country, which will get hit by all kinds of weather. Mishaps that are highly avoidable in terms of saving lives. You can't, you know, we certainly have climate change issues that are making this worse, But at the same time, we should be able to protect and save people. So I just worry for those right now. It's happening right now, actually. My other real fail, they're both real fails, but this is all this, which you're talking about, these empty calories, these pathways to corruption that are everywhere.

1:11:03You saw the media do it a bunch of times this week, whether it was Comcast putting money into the ballroom. It must have really been difficult for Brian Roberts, but he did it because he's on the outs with Trump. So give him some money for the stupid ballroom. And when I think about that, the way it could have been done, look, I'm not, look, the White House is not that attractive a thing of our many things. I think the main part is, but the East Wing is not necessarily a winner. But the way to have redone it could have been so fantastic and bipartisan. And there could have been a contest. It could have been everyone involved.

1:11:39It could have been interesting the way we, you know, with the people who are both pearl clutching and then attacking the pearl clutchers. I don't think they're pearl clutchers. I think they really are sorry that happened that way. It could have been done in such a great way. Like, let's update the White House. Let's do something. A bit of contest. You could have kids involved. You could have done a whole thing that would have united us versus this bullshit, which is he just does what he wants, and then the people get upset about him doing what he wants, and it goes back and forth. It was such a missed opportunity.

1:12:11And, you know, it feels like that all over the place. Whoever gets to do what they want to do is not American. It just feels very un-American, a lot of these things. And then a win, you know, speaking of Brian Roberts, Taylor Sheridan, who's a really important producer, there's always a producer of the moment. He happens to be that. He's behind Yellowstone and Landman. He has signed a deal to join NBCUniversal. It's not for a few years, but when his Paramount deal is up, it's not good for Ellison and Paramount. But it doesn't matter because Ellison is essentially a Nepo baby son of Larry Ellison.

1:12:47So he'll get his TikTok this week or he'll get his deal to buy Warner and everyone will fall into line. But I thought that was an interesting situation for Taylor. I thought it was a win for NBC. But who knows? Who knows how much more Sheridan will keep, you know, having the hits, but still an interesting shift. But I think if we were, or what I want to, what I'm going to start doing is it's no longer, what are they calling it? I mean, I know it was called the East Wing. It's supposed to be called the Ballroom now or the Grand Ballroom. I'm not calling it that, but go ahead. Whatever. Well, anyways.

1:13:17It's just a ballroom. From this point forward, we should call it what it is. And this is the Epstein bedroom. There's the Lincoln bedroom. This is the Epstein bedroom. Because all this is is another attempt to distract us from Jeffrey Epstein and the release of the Epstein file. And he won't seat. Mike Johnson won't seat that representative. Yeah, but the bottom line is, it really isn't that. Quite frankly, I don't think this is that big a deal. Obama had renovations. Okay, I don't like the way he's going about it. This is massive. This is different than anything. I do not think this is that meaningful.

1:13:49I really don't. I don't, but the way he did, I think it's more like this wasn't a marriage. Like, this is what I'm saying. The guys calling him to call off the San Francisco thing. Let's just tear it down without consultation. Not even like that is un-American. It is it is just not I guess maybe it is American. I don't know. Anyways, the win. So the win is and just a reminder, there is for all this performative masculinity around taking a trillion dollar a year expenditure and having missile strikes, which may be quite frankly extraditional murder at this point. which is just so performative, in my opinion, stupid, there is a real war taking place with real lethal force in Ukraine.

1:14:30And according to, I think it's Pateri Orpo, Finland's prime minister, Ukrainian forces do appear to have halted major Russian advances on some fronts. With help by Europe. Yes, that's right. And Ukraine's capacity to strike against targets inside Russia has improved. I do hope we provide them with the long-range missiles and the Tomahawk, which is an incredible weapon to target the refining capabilities. An opinion piece in The Guardian reports that Ukraine's mood in Kiev is more confident now than a year ago, though the situation is still grave. It still feels like the mood is upbeat. There's greater resolve.

1:15:04Discussions are advancing around using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's reconstruction and defense, which is on its own a sign of growing international alignment. So anyways, my win and reminder is the real fight here, the real lethality that is proving, you know, is upholding our freedom and our democracy is taking place. It's not off the shores of Venezuela. It's in Ukraine right now where the Ukrainian army does continue to punch well above their weight class. So anyway, that's my win. That's a good one. Because, you know, that's, speaking of economic value, think about the windfalls that's going to happen there as we rebuild that very vibrant and innovative culture, right?

1:15:45This is, again, an opportunity for the United States to build real things versus this nonsense. All the different people that have to suck up to Trump, it's grotesque to watch them one after the next, sucking up to him. But there's no economic value there. It's just a grift. It's just one long grift. And that's not how you make things, right? You get to get ahead because you fluff a billionaire? Stop it. It has no economic value. And whether you like us being involved in other countries or not, the best thing would be to have a peaceful Ukraine that will then innovate and create a better—I don't know.

1:16:25It just seems like—none of this is economic. It's just thrift. And so it's very disappointing. I'll tell you that. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. and elsewhere in the Kara and Scott universe, this week on On with Kara Swisher, which Scott Galloway is going to be on soon for his new book. I spoke with writer, director, and producer Judd Apatow. Let's listen to a clip. There are definitely ways that technology can help people. If you can go on a computer and make it look like deep space and it doesn't cost$3 million, it costs$40 ,000, well, clearly, in some ways, that will help people.

1:17:08It will decimate the people that made space. But it seems like we're not going to be able to stop that when it gets cheaper. But the writing and the directing will always wind up generic because it's scraped and it's just copying other things. Oh, we'll see about that, Judd. But he's really, I mean, that guy has got a history of really amazing work in comedy. Anyway, he actually, you know, he's just really sharp about what's happening. I thought it was a great talk. Yeah, smart guy, impressive guy. He really is. But you're going to be even more impressive. Oh, yeah, go on. It's going to be good.

1:17:43I'm going to let you talk and talk and talk, so you'll have a good time. Reminder, which I already do here, we're going to go on tour. We'll be going to Toronto, Boston, New York, D.C., Chicago, San Francisco, and L.A. Scott and I are going to be together so much. We're sold out in Toronto and San Francisco, and the other cities are very close. But visit pivottour.com, especially UChicago. We've got an extra large venue there. Come and see us. We also got some surprises there, some good big names coming. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. And make sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

1:18:14We'll be back on Friday. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and her Todd engineered this episode. Ronnie Polidoro edited the video. Additional support from Kate Gallagher and Brad Sylvester. Thanks also to Drew Bros, Mia Saverio, and Dan Chalon. Nishat Kroos, Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine, Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.