Elon's Million Dollar Giveaway, OpenAI and Microsoft Tensions, and Guests Chantal Fernandez and Lauren Sherman

23:57We don't have any affinity for this guy's idiot fucking decisions. And the early investors are like, oh, cut her some slack. And I'm like, well, that's because you're up 10x on your investment. I get why you are very forgiving. But the folks who invested last year are, you know, probably down 30 percent. Anyways, it's mismatched durations. Smart advice. They won't take it. They will grab as much. Well, they sort of have, I mean, this is a tough one because they sort of have a responsibility to protect, serve existing shareholders and not take the dilution. But if I look at, you know, that graph that shows time to mass adoption, you know, TV took 10 or 20 years.

24:37Then the fax took five years. Then Instagram took three years. The cycle time to mass adoption of a 10X product is getting shorter and shorter. And unfortunately, that also means the time to monopoly or duopoly. And I think the duopoly is already formed here. I think it's open video. The Netflix of. Anyway, we'll see what happens. I think they're going to raise money and they're not going to listen to a very good piece of advice you just gave, actually. Also, for the latest episode of On with Kara Swisher, I interviewed Robert Downey Jr. He's starring in the Broadway play McNeil, which gets into some ethics and morality issues around AI.

25:12I asked about the implications for Hollywood, who is doing some lawsuits, some deals, etc. Let's listen. So, Robert, these images are deep fakes of you and others. They use Genevieve to create these digital replicas. Tony Stark died in Avengers Endgame. They could resurrect him without you existing now, given how much body work you have. And do you have a rider to protect your likeness, something you want in your contracts going forward? I'm not worried about them hijacking my character's soul because there's like three or four guys and gals who make all the decisions there anyway. And they would never do that to me, with or without me.

25:51But future executives certainly will. Well, you're right. And I would like to hear state that I intend to sue all future executives just on spec. You'll be dead, Robert. I know, but my law firm will still be very active. It was an interesting discussion. He's a very sharp cookie. This is a really interesting show. But, you know, it is interesting because he has an enormous body of work. One of the great actors of our time. Really. He won the Oscar. The chaplain, right? No, he won it for Oppenheimer. But it was interesting because he really does think about these things. But it'll be interesting to see what happens to actors like him going forward.

26:32Because he's coming back, by the way, as Doctor Doom. He's becoming a villain, which is interesting. Because we touched really briefly on Elon and he was sort of like, yeah, that guy. Not me. He's not playing me because Elon thinks he's Tony Stark. and Tony Stark does not think he is Elon in many ways. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Donald Trump's closing arguments take a vulgar, that's the word they're using, vulgar term. It's penis jokes, Scott, and then you're the expert, so we'll talk about it and we'll speak with friends of Pivot, Chantal Fernandez and Lauren Sherman about the rise and fall of Victoria's Secret, a really fascinating business story.

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28:15however you choose to do it because when you're not worried about doing things the right way you're free to discover your way and that's what running is all about run your way at newbalance.com slash running

28:39Scott, we're back with two weeks to go into Election Day. The presidential candidates are making their closing arguments in very different ways. Vice President Kamala Harris focused on abortion rights at a rally in Atlanta over the weekend and visited black churches in a push for early voting. Former President Donald Trump had a stage managed photo op at a McDonald's serving fries to supporters in a closed place. That was after a rally where he shared a story about golfer Arnold Palmer's penis. By the way, his daughter today said Arnold Palmer did not like Donald Trump and thought that was grotesque.

29:10You're the expert on penis jokes. So why don't you – what did you think of this penis joke he made? I don't know. Look, it represents, so, all right, the person who wants to be commander in chief and represent us to allies and enemies and to parliaments around the world, you got to put on a tie. And that is, you're going to church, you got to put on a tie. You're going to a funeral, you got to put on a tie. You want to be president of the United States, you just secure that shit. You acquit yourself and you compose yourself with a certain level of decorum. You are the ultimate statesman. Full stop.

29:49So that, at a minimum, it sort of says, it just reflects poorly on this person's qualifications to command that role. Two, and I don't like to say this, but I think it's true. I think that is a big part of his appeal. because I think for the last 30 or 40 years, politicians stood in front of people and told them whatever they thought they wanted to hear and use PG-13 or G-rated analogies and language. And people just felt like, I'm just sick of being lied to. Yeah, but do they want a penis joke like this? Yeah, but I think part of, it's part of his appeal care because he's raw. I hate to use this word.

30:30He is authentically a crude and coarse person. And there's a certain level of that outrageousness that I think appeals to his base. I don't. I think he seems cognitively disabled. I think this is lack of inhibition. I don't think this was planned. I have heard from people who spend time with him. He is kind of dirty in person, right? Like privately, he tells dirty jokes and stuff. I think he's lost his fucking mind. I think he's cognitively disabled. And he doesn't have control. And he's not just doing it on Arnold Palmer's penis, which is gross, I think. And I think a lot of independents don't like it much, didn't like that one.

31:08There's one thing to be funny. The other thing that it's just weird and creepy, I think. I'm not so sure it is appealing, this new one. But here's the problem. Yeah. The strategy works, Gera, because we're talking about this, which people don't really care about. Instead of saying, OK, if he implements tariffs and cuts down on immigration, it's going to be wildly inflationary. And so he'd rather, hey, look over here at my outrageous behavior. The people who don't like him will be indignant about it. The people who do like him don't care. Instead of having a thoughtful conversation around policies that would be massive inflationary for America.

31:48So, quite frankly, he wins on this stuff. Yeah, it's true. He's willing to go low. When they go low, I go lower or very low or subterranean. There's such a contrast in these two candidates. I mean, you know, Jim Gaffigan at one of those dinners was like, if you don't understand the contrast, I don't know what's wrong with you. There's a lot of surrogates out there. Michelle and Barack Obama are both hitting the campaign trail with Harris this week. Liz Cheney is campaigning with the vice president. And Elon Musk is doing town halls in Pennsylvania, engaging in some potentially illegal practices.

32:19You've talked about the importance of surrogates. Trump also indicated that Nikki Haley might be joining him on the campaign trail. We'll see. Do you think they're effective at this point in the game? Well, first off, actors traditionally have shown they always lean Democratic, whether it's Warren Beatty and McGovern. Actors always seem to and there isn't a lot of evidence that that helps. I do think it's really powerful to have the Obamas out there. I think Secretary Buttigieg, Governor Shapiro, Governor Whitmer, I think these are powerful, articulate surrogates. And if you look at kind of the team, you know, it's Kellyanne Conway and Ted Nugent on the Trump side.

33:01And Elon. Yeah, and Elon. And just going to Elon for a second, the same issue is there. I saw everyone with their hair on fire citing election law saying— Just so people don't know, let me fill them in. Elon is randomly awarding a million dollar daily prize to registered swing voters who signed his PACS petition supporting the First and Second Amendments. Federal law says it's a crime to pay people with the intention of inducing a reward and to cast a voter get registered. But election law experts are split over whether his actions cross the line. Let me just play this. Speaking of Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro was asked about the legality of the giveaway by Kristen Welker on Meet the Press.

33:36Let's listen. When you start flowing this kind of money into politics, I think it raises serious questions that folks may want to take a look at. So you think it might not be legal? Yes or no? I think it's something that law enforcement can take a look at. I'm not the attorney general anymore at Pennsylvania. I'm the governor. But it does raise some serious questions. See, I think this is just risk assessment by Elon. They're not going to come after him. And if Trump wins, it won't matter. His allies argue because he's not directly paying for registration, but for a petition signature, it's not illegal.

34:07It's very typical of him. This is a very typical risk he would take easily, including attacking Dominion systems, which I think is probably not a great risk to necessarily take. But go ahead, finish what you're saying about him. It all comes down to incentives and the algebra of deterrence. The whole point of our criminal justice system is that criminals do the math. Or when you're about to commit a crime, you do a math. And it's the following. The likelihood I'm caught times the potential penalty has to be greater than the potential upside. And one of the biggest problems that ails our society is in certain key sectors and components of our economic system, the algebra of deterrence is all fucked up.

34:49And I'll give you a couple very three-stark examples. If I'm meta and I know I sit on top of research that is showing that there is a direct correlation between usage of my platform and teen depression and self-cutting, and I continue to engage in this, or I violate my consent decree and I knowingly violate my consent decree, I know that the likelihood I get caught, that the lay and the size of the fine are vastly smaller than the upside of continuous. to break the law. In taxation, all really wealthy people have an incentive to be so fucking aggressive with their taxes because their taxes are so complicated and the IRS has been, till Biden, so underfunded that the likelihood you'll get caught and the penalty are vastly overwhelmed by the amount of money you're going to save.

35:45Whether they can come get you and whether Yeah, by being incredibly aggressive on your taxes. And now let's go to Musk, who gives a shit if it's illegal. They're not going to they're not going to put him in jail. They're not going to say to Trump, you know, that the all of our election laws are the following lie, cheat, break the law, get an office and then it'll be embarrassing. and the election commission will fine you and they'll shame your election, your campaign manager, and you're still the fucking senator. So the incentives, until they say, until there's some sort of real risk that they can shut down, for example, all your media spending, if they say, okay, if this guy engages in this, he could go to jail or the campaign has to stop all media spending.

36:37Like you could get an injunction if it's really blatant. What incentive is there for Musk not to do this? Yeah, I agree. I think everyone's like, can you believe? I was been asked to be on tape. I was like, he doesn't care. He's not going to pay. If Trump wins, he's scot-free. This is a scot-free risk that he takes. And if he loses, she's going to have a hard time going after him, and she probably won't, right? And so I think our laws, especially election laws, do not anticipate shameless fucks. Like, they just don't. And this is Trump. And this is, you know, as you're saying with the penis joke, it's just I don't think I think I think a lot of women, oof, yuck, you.

37:17And I agree with you paying attention to him. But I think it brings to question whether he's cognitively disabled. And that's a negative that is showing up on poll after poll after poll is is he Biden to dirty Biden, essentially. And those numbers are showing some real resonance. We were showing off some stats about that. Is he too old? And then therefore you're voting for J.D. Vance, who is paid for by Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, essentially. So I do think it's a risk for Musk to take and he will take it because it will be advantaged. And if she wins, I think the risk will be problematic for him, but not fatal for him.

37:57You know, he'll just behave. Although saying she hates Christians and stuff like that shows that he's really he's also mentally has some mental problems. I think the real quiet winner in this is Peter Thiel. And I think he will take down all of them because he quietly he's very sharp. He sits behind the scenes. He and Elon did not get along before this, by the way, at all in a way that was significant. So I suspect if Trump wins, there's going to be one ugly fight going on among those people. There's about a one in three chance if Donald Trump is reelected that he dies in office just based on his age and his body mass index.

38:40That means there's a guy who was a mediocre entrepreneur, VC at best, served four years in the Marines, which he should be honored for, got elected to Senate, what, two years ago? and this guy is bought and paid for by Peter Thiel. It's not his service in the Marines. He's a smart guy. It's not his book. It's not any of that. There's two reasons that Senator Rance could be a heartbeat from presidency and basically the president. There's two reasons. The first is Peter. The second is Thiel. Yep. That's the one I'm watching. You know, I think Elon's in more trouble in a Trump presidency than Kamala Harris.

39:21I think he's got issues, you know, Democratic issues of investigation and regulatory. There is going to be an ugly fight at the top there if Trump wins. I wouldn't want to be Trump. I think he's among some very difficult characters. I didn't see that. That's interesting. I didn't see that. Because the way I see it, and again, it just always, in my opinion, I'd love to write a book called Incentives. I just don't people connect the dots. But here are the incentives, and this is what's so dangerous about not immediately having a gag reflex around a move to autocracy. There's greater incentive to support Trump than Harris, if you're famous or you're – because here's the thing.

40:02If you're Elon Musk and you support Trump very, very visibly and Harris is elected, they're not going to punish your company. They're not going to put you in jail. They believe in rule of law. Yep, that's right. Donald Trump is saying, if I'm elected, I'm going to prosecute Google to the full extent, or Jews, it's your fault if I don't get elected. So all of the incentives are, okay, if I root for this clown and he doesn't win, I'm okay. Because the people, the other side believes in rule of law. They're not going to go after personal persecution. But the autocrat might come after me. I think that is what's exactly going to happen.

40:45So say more. What do you mean, Karen? I mean, I think Elon's in more trouble in a Trump presidency. I think he doesn't. He's the one who's sort of he's got obviously some cognitive issues. He's you know, he's really lost his mind in many ways, allegedly. I think Teal is pulling all the strings here. I just I just Peter Teal is quiet and deadly. Elon Musk is loud and he's just reminds me of some of these oligarchs that ended up not living. But the whole point of a democracy, the whole point of having different branches of governments and members of Congress and three branches and a military, a secretary of defense that comes from a civilian background, not a military.

41:23All of these things are meant to put in place checks and balances. And we're about to, for the first time, I think, maybe there's someone else, where essentially you have one man, Peter Thiel, who could literally control the president. There is no something something Peter Thiel will never hear from a vice president or potentially a president Vance. Something he will never hear is no. That's right. Ever. He's the one I'm watching. I'm not watching anything. It's just a ridiculous circus of a person. And I think it'll end badly for him. But Peter Thiel is the one I'm looking at. Anyway, we'll see.

42:01Let's bring in our friends a pivot.

42:08Chantal Fernandez is a fashion features writer at The Cut, and Lauren Sherman is Puck's fashion correspondent. Together, they've written a new book, Selling Sexy, Victoria's Secret, and The Unraveling of an American Icon. Welcome, both of you. Hi, thank you for having us. Thanks for having us. The New York Times Review puts it, this book is about bras in the same way that Citizen Kane is a movie about a sled, which is to say, not at all. Talk about this, because this is a business story. And for people who don't know, Victoria's Secret just started their fashion shows again after very controversial.

42:38You know, some of the executives, one particular one, the head of marketing, feels like a sexual harasser, like of the old school. But talk a little bit about what the story you wanted to tell. Why don't you start, Chantal? Yeah, Victoria's Secret has been so connected to the zeitgeist for decades. And we really saw it as a window into the American consumer psyche. It's a brand that so many women have had a hate-love relationship with, but it was so dominant, really didn't have any meaningful competitors at its peak. And we really wanted to explore how that happened. How did such a tiny boutique come to dominate a really utilitarian category and turn it into a fashion category?

43:18And it was also a way to talk about the rise of specialty retail, which Les Wexner, who acquired Victoria's Secret from its original founders and scaled it so impressively. He didn't invent specialty retailing, but he sort of perfected that model. And through telling the story of specialty retail, it's a way to talk about the way that American fashion has evolved since the 1950s and all of these really fascinating ways. And Lauren and I wanted to write this book because the Victoria's Secret downfall was really a marketing angle in the media that the angels were out of touch. But it was also, we felt there was a business story there that hadn't been told that really also led to the challenges that that brand had.

43:56And Lauren, Wexner is a really unusual character, I think. He obviously shaped Victoria's Secret and brought it to, like, very similar to what happened at Starbucks. There was an original Starbucks and then Howard Schultz made it into Starbucks, essentially. And his maxim for the business was, we sell hope, not help. He also was close with Jeffrey Epstein, who reportedly used his ties to him to lure young women. Talk a little bit about him, Lauren. So he was sort of proto-fast fashion. He changed the way we all shop. And I think everything Chantal said, American culture is consumer culture. And he was hugely important in the making of the American mall as like a part of society.

44:42and he very, very early, his parents were in the trade like many Jewish immigrants and he very early saw what his parents were doing. They owned a small store and realized, oh, the price value equation of the clothes they're selling isn't right. I could be making things cheaper without brand names and people would buy them because they would feel like they were better value. So it was all about value, value, value. Pre-Wexner owning Victoria's Secret, it was more like a Barney's. There was sets. This is like late 70s and you could buy a bra and underwear set that was$2 ,000 there. When he bought it, like all the old executives, the first thing they talked about was the$20 red teddy that he brought to market.

45:26And he kind of took the style that the Raymonds, the original founders created and scaled it and made it cheaper and faster. And so he's a very interesting character, his personal life, too, and the relationship he had with Epstein and how much control he gave Epstein over his life. He gave him power of attorney a couple years after they had met. And this is a guy who was very closed off and had really only worked with people he knew since high school. A lot of his first business partners were people he grew up with. So it's a very strange, strange relationship that we get into. And it's sort of their relationship and the rise and fall of Epstein sort of mirrors the rise and fall of Victoria's Secret.

46:14Why? Why with Epstein? I think, you know, there's like you could get psychology 101 here. Wexner is a very shy, closed off person who did not feel comfortable in New York City in the 80s. There's a big New York magazine profile from, I think, 85, where Wexner sort of like on the scene in the city. And Epstein provided, you know, as everyone knows, he was charismatic. He had a lot of connections. Really powerful people trusted him. And so I think Epstein was sort of a buffer to all these things that made Wexner really uncomfortable and he felt protected by him. He also, you know, as Epstein came in, Wexer's mother, who had been like a very controlling figure in his life, Bella, had worked at the company essentially since it started.

47:05She sort of receded to the background. Epstein took her role on a board of a charity that they worked on. There were all these things where Epstein's presence allowed him to kind of get rid of—there's this guy Bob Murawski who had worked with him since the beginning. They fired him. It allowed him to kind of—he was like a henchman type thing. It's nice to meet you both. So my sense is the Epstein scandal makes for interesting media and articles, but it had almost nothing to do with this downfall. I just don't buy it. I think this is a story of merchandising that missed the mark. And there's been a ton of scandal.

47:46The founder of Abercrombie & Fitch did not drape himself in glory, and they've had an unbelievable renaissance. When I think of Les, I think he got something very right and very wrong. He actually was known in specialty retail as the guy that first brought data, like hard data science to specialty retail. At least that's how I remember him. But the whole angels, this unattainable aesthetic, the merchandise, it just kind of, like most especially retail, isn't this just a story of, quite frankly, and it's not sexy, but they just got the product wrong for a really long time. Yeah, I think by the time the conversation turned against the angels and it was seen as culturally out of step, they already had a lot of merchandising problems.

48:28You know, the way that business was structured between e-commerce and stores was completely separate. They hadn't invested in e-commerce. There was the rise of the bralette, you know, that kind of underwire molded cup bra that was their bread and butter, their highest margin. Yeah, if, you know, if their active wear had been stronger when all of this happened, they probably wouldn't be in the position they are now. We really pinpoint it to their myths on the bralette. That's sort of foreshadowing when the bralette became really popular in culture about 10, 11 years ago. There were a lot of executives internally who were pushing it.

49:03And Wexner in particular was like, no, again, we sell hope, not help. Our vision of sexy is an underwire bra. Also, underwire bras are more expensive. They have higher margins and they're harder to make. So we see that as sort of the turning point. that activewear stuff for sure too and we cover that in the book but i i really see the sort of they really missed the mark on the bralette and that meant they missed the mark on like everything that was happening in culture and marketing which happens to many retailers right there happens to many i mean if you don't get culottes versus pedal pushers you're fucked i remember several stores here in the washing area that i covered retail for seven years and they missed one thing especially if they were on trend but you read about the company ended up flying about digitally because they were ahead.

49:47They had an early website live streaming these shows. They took advantage of Facebook and Instagram. What happened from your perspective? I think Wexner underestimated the power of e-commerce and especially in the 2010s when, you know, there were all these direct-to-consumer startups coming into the space and the technology was really evolving. You know, there wasn't that investment at the company. And, you know, he It was a great interview that he did around that time saying that smartphones would be a fad and that, you know, people would want to shop in person. You know, he saw especially the bra as something that women were going to want to shop in person for and felt he was an outlier like the Apple Store or Sephora that would always draw higher than average traffic in the mall.

50:29And while there is some truth to that in terms of women wanting to try on bras, you know, the convenience of e-commerce, obviously, we all know, was something that they needed to invest in. And they really just weren't until really like 2019, which is crazy. I mean, you guys cover retail. I'm curious if you agree with this. But the turnaround that I think doesn't get the attention it receives is Abercrombie & Fitch. It just, we could have, when I say we, I was on the board of Urban Outfitters. We could have bought Abercrombie & Fitch for$200 million to$500 million just like five years ago. Now it's got a market cap of$8 billion.

51:04Do you think there's any opportunity or likelihood? Victoria's Secret still has huge awareness. Obviously, very strong distribution, or I would imagine a ton of leases, some of which are still pretty good. Do you think that there's any possibility of an Abercrombie-like turnaround for the firm? Well, Chantal actually did a great profile for New York Magazine on the business and what they've done with it. It's a very different business, as you know, bras and fashion, and Victoria's Secret is going to incorporate more clothing into the business again, but it's not as seasonal of a business. It's more about replenishment.

51:42It's much smaller. Well, Abercrombie is much smaller than Victoria's Secret. So they're very, very different businesses. And the distribution that Victoria's Secret has means that it is still giant. It's still a$6 billion a year. Now that's the product they're shipping. The margin on that is terrible. And it's shrinking. So the business, I see it probably continuing to shrink, shrink, shrink. It's healthy, probably a$2,$3 billion business. And right now,$6 billion too much would be more profitable to be smaller. But I think, yes, I think there's definitely an opportunity for it to have a renaissance.

52:22And Abercrombie was really smart that they didn't rely on the old imagery. They used the same building blocks, jeans, cute tops, sweaters, but they made it modern and they divorced it from the Bruce Weber of it all. Victoria's Secret, I don't know if they have like the three savvy executives in place at this moment. They just got a new CEO. We'll see what she does. But a lot of that credit has to do with Fran Horowitz and seeing her merchandiser and her marketer and the three of them working together and using the data right. So it's possible. So but they just Victoria's Secret just fashion show returned after a six year hiatus in the wake of a Me Too and other controversies.

53:03This was supposed to be a reinvention for the brand, and the show got mixed reviews at best. One critic called it a relic of another time. What do you think of what they did there and why? It did feel weird to see it, right? And then the competitors, is it Kim Kardashian's Skims or some of these fashion fashion companies, Chantal? Yeah, Skims, Aerie, Rihanna's brand. Those are some of the main competitors beyond sort of the department store brands that don't have much marketing like Wacol or Notori. The fashion show, I think, was interesting. It was an opportunity for them to get a lot of organic media coverage.

53:40You know, there was a ton of coverage last week, clips all over social media. I think the lesson from Abercrombie is that there's a lot to be gained in focusing on the product over the fantasy or the marketing. And that seems to not be the priority still of Victoria's Secret, though with this show, they pushed, you know, on the Amazon streaming, a lot of it was shoppable in a way that it never was before and was never part of the strategy before. You know, I think it's hard to say it will see how the results are, but I don't think it moved the needle culturally positive or negatively for the brand.

54:13And I'm sure they spent a ton of money on it. And, you know, they have a new CEO, Hilary Super, who came from Rihanna's brand, who only started about a month ago. So perhaps her priorities will evolve. And, you know, this show was planned long before she was hired. So it's interesting to track. But yeah, I think there was one reaction I thought was really interesting is especially younger people wanted a campier version of the show, because that's what they remember from the 2010s. and this show was not that campy. It was more sophisticated. They had the former Vogue Paris editor-in-chief styling it, Emmanuel Ault.

54:46So they were going for that fashion-y angle and it doesn't really seem like that's what younger people wanted. Yeah, it felt very Joan Collins. I'm just curious, when you look at the world of specialty retail, who do you admire the most? Who do you think is just killing it right now? I really love Skims. I think it's so interesting the way they've taken the Victoria's Secret playbook and twisted it in subtle but profound ways. And I think Jens and Emma agree who are the couple behind that are really sharp merchants and understand, again, how to mix that focus on product and marketing. The thing about the Kim Kardashian brand, that's a polarizing family as well.

55:20But you hear that word of mouth as saying, oh, this product is actually good. And you never hear that about Victoria's Secret. And I think they could engineer that kind of conversation if they focused on it. They have a lot of product. But I think Skims has just been, they've been having fun with the Victoria's Secret model and, you know, bringing back some of their former angels and in a way that Victoria's Secret, I think, has still been sort of in an apologetic era that they seem to be coming out of now with this show, but has been dogging them recently. I think the question for Skims is whether or not when they only have four or five stores right now, whether or not they can do retail is important and having a ton of distribution is important.

55:59Victoria's Secret has 800 stores. That's way too many. But like a store, what's a store for the value of a store is different now. And so can skims figure out how to make those stores productive, whether that means people leaving the store and buying stuff online immediately or buying a ton of stuff in store? That's the big question for me on that front. I mean, I would say generally in specialty retail, I think most companies have not figured out how to make the stores productive. They need to exist, but what does that mean? And there are a lot of big questions from me on that end, and there's no exact answer, but the big thing is these stores are a big capital expense.

56:50They cost a lot of money, and so how do you make them worth? they need to exist, but how do you make them worthwhile and not erode margins and all that stuff. So, you know, you have Sheen and the others, Uniqlo and stuff like that, or Muji. They're just fine. They're just, you know, and of course they have big stores in New York, but not everywhere. Aloe, Restoration Hardware, Sephora, there's a bunch of stores that are working. In the future, how does that look? Because they open and close very quickly. The stuff is, I don't see Victoria's Secret have any advantage whatsoever when all those are there?

57:24I think shorter leases and more understanding that this is cyclical. Like Aloe right now is on top, but they tried to raise, I forget it, like a really crazy valuation last year and they weren't able to raise the money. So everybody thinks Aloe is so great, but they're opening stores like crazy. They have a very interesting business where they have a blanks business that they run under another name that fueled the Aloe business. But like, what's it going to be in two years when people are sort of over that aesthetic if they're not able to evolve? It's a tale as old as time, right? Especially retailer gets, it's hot, they raise a ton of capital, they spend like drunken sailors, they overexpand.

58:06It's the story of restoration harder. It's the story of all of them. Which is why Victoria's Secret is so impressive because they survived many of those cycles already before. So why has this cycle been so tricky for them? I have an idea I want to pitch all three of you around Victoria's Secret and I want to get your reaction. I saw that fashion show and they're trying to have it both ways. I think they absolutely got to like porn it up. I think they should basically have the hottest men and women and do something with OnlyFans and have a show where basically everyone's just ridiculously fucking hot people naked everywhere.

58:38I think they need to embrace their roots. Your thoughts? I'm buying underwear from Uniqlo. I'm the same. I don't want to fuss. And Uniqlo shares just crashed. I like the idea of them doing something more dramatic, like excluding more people. Lean into it. They're trying to be sort of appeal to everyone, and I think that's tough. I just don't think a fashion show is the answer. Like, have you all looked at their marketing on Instagram? It's terrible. That's where they should be putting the money. If they want to use OnlyFans, like high fashion has embraced OnlyFans in certain cases. and it's worked really well.

59:20I think that's a clever idea, but they need to be where the customer is. And right now, like the other big thing is product is king at the moment. People actually think they're experts on what product is good and bad and their product is not great. And so there's no one on TikTok. On TikTok, everybody's like, Abercrombie and jeans fit so well. No one's saying that about a Victoria's Secret bra. Because what sells it now is comfort, not sex. You know, if they want to be this huge cross-cultural brand, it's about comfort. Yeah. Sorry. I 100 % agree. You could, I personally think if you took Athleisure or Lululemon and Victoria's Secret, they're inversely correlated.

1:00:03I think women have gone to Athleisure and away from this. I mean, literally, Lululemon, arguably the best performing special retailer of the last 15 years. And it's just kicked the shit out of Victoria's Secret. It's taken all that margin and all that. Yeah, the world is dramatically changed. I can't get over, though. Well, it's a longer conversation. I love specialty retail, but I really, really enjoy your work. All right. Thank you, Chantal, Fernandez, and Lauren Sherman. Lean in. Lean into the dirty. And again, the book is Selling Sexy, Victoria's Secret, and the Unraveling of an American Icon.

1:00:39Thank you so much. Thank you both. All right, Scott. I love how you come alive when it comes to specialty retail. You love that specialty retail. Who built Williamson and Mr. Tris website in 1994? I know. I like that. I like that about you. You have a lot of expertise. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

1:00:57There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel. One big question I've got is why in 2025 are late night TV shows like Jimmy Kimmel's show still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now.

1:01:46That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

1:01:55Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. You go first. Well, my win is I just wanted to bring some attention. I was thinking, how do I show Leanne and Pia some gratitude here? I just want to talk a little bit about the WNBA. The playoffs averaged 970 ,000 viewers across the first 17 playoff games. That's 142 % increase over 2023. One year, they're up two and a half fold. They attracted an all-time record of more than 54 million unique viewers this season. In-person attendance averaged 9 ,800 fans, up 48 % from last season. Merchandise sales increased 601 % from 2023. The WNBA received nearly 2 billion videos across its social media platforms, more than quadruple last season's total.

1:02:40So the nice thing here is at some point this money, this incremental attendance is going to result in a TV contract and higher salaries. The other thing that just blew me away, I was asking all about the players. Like a decent number of the players on the court had given birth. Yeah, they have kids. Yeah, their wives. slamming into each other. And I just, I was, anyways, my win, my win is the WNBA. And again, thank you, Leanne. My work is done. And I can now retire. And Pia for inviting me to such a great event. My loss is, I just, I can't, I really, and I know that just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean I'm wrong.

1:03:22And that is when I see young Americans and the way the things they're saying and the way they're behaving on campus and the things they say online, I really do believe that they have an entirely incorrect view of America right now. And I believe that - Something you've talked about a lot. Well, folks. Okay. So let's just go. I think at the end of the day, the most important thing a government can do is ensure rights, defend our borders, and also create a context for prosperity. That's Latin for a healthy economy. Let's talk about our economy right here, right now. We are at full employment. We have the lowest unemployment since 1968.

1:04:07And if you turn on certain networks or listen to certain podcasts, they'd have you believe that it's the fucking depression. Our inflation is at 2.2%. So, by the way, the lowest - Bill Maher was pointing this out. The lowest in the G7. Okay, hold on. What about GDP? What about growth? It's the strongest in the world. We are going to be responsible for 80%, according to the World Bank, of 2025 forecasts in GDP. In 1990, the U.S. accounted for two-fifths of GDP of the G7. Today, it makes up half. Output per person is now 30 % higher than in Western Europe and Canada and 60 % higher than in Japan.

1:04:48Japan, gaps that have roughly doubled since 1990. Mississippi is America's poorest state. That's the worst in the U.S. economically, but its hardworking residents earn on average more than Brits, Canadians, or Germans. And then lately, China has gone backwards, having closed in rapidly on America in the years before the pandemic. Its nominal GDP has slipped from about three quarters of America's in 2021 to two thirds today. By the way, I should note, I'm parroting all of this from Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, my friend and world-class academic from Yale. The U.S. under Biden became the world's largest energy producer.

1:05:28We produce a third more energy than the Saudis and Russia. Biden granted 50 percent more oil and gas drilling permits than under Trump. Biden's deficit. Trump's dark vision of this country is completely off. The Biden deficit was cut by one third. It tripled under Trump. Immigration the last six months is far below Trump's border crossings the last six months under Trump. And unrivaled 76 record highs in the stock market in the last year. Folks, young people, yeah, we still have work to do, but there are 190 sovereign nations in the world in terms of prosperity, your rights, your ability to express who you want to be.

1:06:15189 would trade places with us. So yeah, we got work to do, but also take some pause in just how ridiculously fucking lucky and pat yourself on. Hold on, hold on. The smartest decision you have made was to be born in America. And the notion that it is really bad right now, don't buy it. Don't buy it. All right. All right. You're sounding a little like Obama there. I think my win was a really wonderful movie that's SNL, which I think is doing was relatively funny this week. And by the way, Billie Eilish is so fantastic. They had Michael Keaton as the guest, but and Maya Rudolph was great. But they had a skit about scrolling TikTok that was so funny because it was exactly true.

1:07:04It's this video. I go find it because it makes you laugh hysterically. And they were parodying all the different genres of TikTok. and I thought it was just on point and made me laugh and laugh and laugh. And because it was exactly like TikTok is, all this ridiculous stuff. And they did a beautiful job of it, which is something that made me laugh. My fail are these lies that keep getting. And I know you say they get attention and this and that, but I think it dovetails into what you were talking about, is that Trump just was on a thing saying that people go to school and they come back transgender.

1:07:39Like he just repeats it again. I saw that. He's done it. You say goodbye. Have a lovely day. You love what you love. You come back Barbara. And they come back. They come back a girl. Yeah, that happens all the time. Never. And like these late term abortions and these incredible lies they tell are just repulsive. This is not what America is. These are dark and sick people. I'm sorry. Same thing with Elon Musk, lying about Dominion, lying about this. Just the he did a series of lies and they have lies that are unchecked. Let me tell you something. They're not unchecked. Someday. Someday. I'm sorry.

1:08:16You're I think this is there's going to be such a backlash against this kind of behavior, this this failure of of not our best natures. And it's really grotesque to see some of them. And then the Republicans defending this, like Mike Johnson, who is such a tool, when Jake Tapper was mentioning the Arnold Palmer thing was like pretending it didn't matter. It does matter. This kind of discourse brings us all down. We are, as Scott said, a great country. And this is so beneath us, this dark, ugly, lying, pieces of shit version of our country. You know, again, fuck you. That's not what we are. We're much better than that.

1:08:55And I have kids. Scott has kids. We have great hopes for them. And they are great people. It's just gross. These are terrible role models. And the sooner they're gone, the better. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. And on that note, the results from last episode's Threads poll are in. In response to the question, how often are you personally using AI? 31 % of you answered daily. This is amazing. 20 % of you answered weekly. 31 % of you answered occasionally.

1:09:30And 18 % of you answered never. Interesting. Anything to say very quickly to the 18 % who said never? When I first moved to New York, my team interviewed and hired an assistant for me. And she walked in and we were talking. She said, oh, I don't use computers. And I said, you can't work here. If you want to be gainfully employed in America, you need to understand AI the same way we needed to understand computers. Excellent. That's an excellent thing. Scott is not having any of your shit, any of you today. Anyway, that's because he's a lesbian now. Power lesbian. Power lesbian. Excuse me. Hello, ladies.

1:10:02Okay, Barbara. That's the show. We'll be back on Friday for more. Read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and her Todd engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Mia Saverio, and Dan Shulon. And Nishat Kuruwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Congratulations to the world champion, New York Liberty.