F-Bomb Diplomacy, Cabinet Shake-Up Signals, and OpenAI’s Podcast Play

15:10Kristen Soltis Anderson:I did some focus groups for The New York Times very recently where we talked to Gen Z white-collar job seekers. And it was, I mean, it was like unsurprising but also just heartbreaking to hear these young people talk about what it is like to try to get a job in a moment when they, for some of them, they went to college because they were told, you need this credential. Now they've got debt and they still send out 100 applications and they get five people to call them back, of which three then proceed to ghost them. And the other one, the other two are AI. Yeah, exactly. And so it was just it felt it there was a bleakness to it that was was dispiriting.

15:55Kristen Soltis Anderson:Because normally when I talk to Gen Z folks, like there's very much a yeah, everything's terrible, but like our generation is going to fix it. And it almost feels like right now, do people feel like they have any sense of control or ability to shape the future? Or is it just like bigger, more powerful stuff at play that they won't be able to just put their heads down? And they blame Trump for this, correct? So in our focus group, it was actually a more Dem-leaning group. I don't know, chicken or the egg, is that because that's more of who was looking for jobs or what have you? And we really didn't talk too much about Trump himself.

16:33Kristen Soltis Anderson:Right. But it's a feeling and he's standing at the top, right? Yeah. My sense is less that they say, I can't get a job and it's Donald Trump's fault. And it's more, I can't get a job. It feels like society has been moving in a bad direction for a while. And I don't know, like, who's sending the lifeboats? Like, who's coming to rescue us? I don't know that anybody is.

16:49Kara Swisher:prime position. When you think about that, his outbursts, how much do they matter anymore? Like the one this weekend, of course, once again, and I don't mean to say the word pearl clutching, but everyone's like, oh, can you believe he said it? I'm like, yes, he seems cognitively disabled to me. I don't, I'm not a doctor, but he's as crazy as ever. And he's not, that's not changed. Does that matter when he does these sort of outbursts or are they just noise now with him, with voters?

17:14Kristen Soltis Anderson:Well, there's this weird disconnect where if you ask voters what they think about things like that. They tell you they don't like them. And yet, if market signals are to be believed, more politicians seem to be leaning into that kind of behavior, a sort of like, if you can't beat them, join them type approach. So like I would think if you just take people at their word, they want candidates who compromise and candidates who behave in a manner that is befitting the office and all of those different things. And then who shows up and votes in a primary, like puts people in who have unbelievable flaws in any number of ways.

17:53Kristen Soltis Anderson:So I think you're right. And I don't think it's pearl clutching or if it is like I'm pearl clutching a little bit, not that I'm surprised, but that I'm disappointed that we now have this coarseness where the president of the United States is tweeting F-bombs. I don't love that. That's right. Maybe that's just me as a small C conservative. I'm not interested. No, thank you. But the reality is that voters say they don't want it. And then this is who gets elected. And whether it's they're voting for him in spite of it or because of it, like I think there's some people it's because of it. They like that he doesn't sound like somebody straight out of central casting.

18:35Kristen Soltis Anderson:But I do wonder if there'll be a backlash at some point, if Americans will start to want straight out of central casting at some point. It seems like it.

18:41Kara Swisher:It seems he's starting to actually sound like the old man at my mom's senior living facility who you really need. You go around to get off the elevator for. And initially you're like, ha ha ha. And then you're like, shut the fuck up, daddy, grandpa. Anyway, it's a really interesting thing because I think just like with Iran or anything else, it's a background noise that's disconcerting, right? Rather than a direct thing.

19:05Kristen Soltis Anderson:It's not soothing. It's not this is not America does not feel like the spa music is on.

19:11Kara Swisher:It's on right now, especially with these young voters that you're seeing. And if you had to pick one polling thing that you went, oh, my goodness sakes, one upside or downside. What is there something that stuck out from you recently in your polling?

19:25Kristen Soltis Anderson:Well, I think it is about Gen Z and the economy. And it is when we've been asking people, do you think the economy is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction? We've been asking them this for years. People generally have been saying it's been headed in the wrong direction and you can break it out by generation. And for the most part, this has not been something where like older voters think everything is great and younger voters think it's terrible. Like everybody's kind of been aligned about where things are at. But in just the last month in our March data, the Gen Z respondents, I mean, it fell off a cliff in terms of their feelings about the economy.

19:59Kristen Soltis Anderson:And the reason why that sticks out is, one, it's breaking of a big trend that we'd had for a long time of kind of everybody feels like the economy is not doing great. But just to see them get so much more depressed in just a month was really jarring. But number two, think about the kind of coalition that Republicans put together that have enabled them to have better than expected elections. elections. It's in part because they tried to repair the damage that had been done with younger voters. And if you are presiding over an economy where Gen Z is feeling like this, like that's it. The only thing you have going for you is the fact that Gen Z finds Democrats to be uninspiring at the moment.

20:41Kristen Soltis Anderson:That's not a great thing to hang your hat on. So to me, it is that Gen Z economic number more so than anything specific about foreign policy. So it's an

20:49Kara Swisher:opportunity for Democrats, presumably, correct? It's an opportunity.

20:53Kristen Soltis Anderson:It is. It is an opportunity for Democrats. But I think the thing that Democrats are getting wrong is like that they know that affordability is the thing on everybody's minds. And so they know to like mouth the words, yes, we care about cost of living. And that may be enough. If things are bad enough, you can just say, I'm not the other guy. And that could be adequate. But I still think that voters also, in the surveys that I see, harbor some skepticism about what Democrats would do if given the reins again. Like, OK, we don't love what Trump's doing, but we still don't love the way Biden handled this either.

21:25Kristen Soltis Anderson:So what's your plan? Is your plan to open up the spigot of money and subsidize everything to pretend like it goes away, but that drives inflation? Like, we don't want that either.

21:33Kara Swisher:On the deficit.

21:34Kristen Soltis Anderson:Yeah, I don't I don't think that they have a clear.

21:38Kara Swisher:Yes. Fresh ideas that actually solve people's problems. Incredible. That's what they're supposed to do. OK, Kristen, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about a potential cabinet shakeup and who might be the next to go.

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25:15Kara Swisher:Christian, we're back. Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem may have just been the beginning. A Trump cabinet shakeup is reportedly in the works, though the president is denying it, which means it's happening. The White House official told Reuters to expect a targeted churn rather than a big dramatic reset, which this feels like a corporation. Some of the names potentially on the chopping block, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, FBI Director Cash Patel, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Labor Secretary Lori DeRiemer. As for Bondi's replacement, her deputy and Trump's former attorney, Todd Blanche, is currently serving as acting AG, and he's already trying to distance the DOJ from the Epstein file, telling Fox last week that all the files have been released.

25:55Kara Swisher:Talk a little bit about what's happening here in terms of this. And does this create more of a voter dissatisfaction or is it I mean, this happens in every administration where there's a shakeup kind of thing. It's not. And the last Trump administration was was like a manic episode of The Apprentice, of course. And people went in and out quite a lot. This is these people have had some staying power and they're 100 percent less competent. So talk a little bit about that.

26:24Kristen Soltis Anderson:I think a shakeup can be a very good thing, especially if, like, let's take Kristi Noem. This is a great example of an issue. Immigration was an issue where Republicans and Donald Trump had a massive advantage that they haven't always had. But there was a real willingness to, like, America had moved to the right on these issues and said, do what you have to do to get the border secure. And the way in which this was handled, culminating in, I mean, embarrassment is probably too light a way to frame it. But the events of the last couple of months in terms of ICE specifically. In Minnesota or wherever, yeah.

26:59Kara Swisher:Just this week with a service member's wife being grabbed off a base.

27:04Kristen Soltis Anderson:Yeah, I just feel like for Donald Trump, you can't, your political coalition can't survive if you don't have people coming to you going, well, at least he knows what to do about the border. At least he knows how to handle this issue. It's kind of a core piece of glue that holds different pieces of his coalition together. And if you lose that, what do you have? So by being able to sort of say, OK, I'm cutting this person, this person has been an embarrassment to me and look, my numbers on this issue have fallen. It is good that he is at least not taking the position of like, I'm just going to I'm going to circle the wagons and we're going to say that everything's fine and it's just the liberal media that's being mean.

27:44Kristen Soltis Anderson:So I think to some level, these shakeups are what Donald Trump's voters expect from him, especially those folks who are not diehard Republicans, but instead gravitated to him for some combination of the economy and immigration and vibes that like being able to show, yes, I want new people running the show. I have been unsatisfied with what they've been doing.

28:08Kara Swisher:Well, that's his brand started with that. You're fired.

28:11Kristen Soltis Anderson:Exactly. Exactly. So I don't know what that means about who would be next. I mean, I think about some of the names that were on your list, and some of them have done more that has publicly brought strife to the White House than others. And I think that's probably the thing that is animating this more. Like, I don't know to what extent his decision to bid farewell to Kristi Noem wasn't about how ICE was handling the issue of immigration, or was it how she handled hearings and some of these embarrassing stories about, like, you know, the planes and God knows what else. Right, yeah. But so that's sort of how I evaluate this.

28:48Kara Swisher:Honestly, her husband's the coolest thing about her, but go ahead. That's true.

28:53Kristen Soltis Anderson:All of which is to say, I think if you want to know where the change would come next, I think the most important criteria is likely who is reflecting well on this White House, not who has something that's got the beltway in a stir, but it's not really reflecting badly on him. Right.

29:11Kara Swisher:So it has to be. Who does break through of these cabinet members with the voters, the ones that you're polling?

29:17Kristen Soltis Anderson:So I honestly think that if you asked voters which member of the cabinet is the most supportive of tariffs, I do not think very many would be able to name Howard Lutnick. So, again, I am not a Trump Kremlinologist, but to me, it does not seem as though there's anything on the outside that would be driving that in quite the same way as, say, Kash Patel at the FBI drinking with the hockey team or, you know, any number of cases that the FBI has been handling and questions about the effectiveness of that. So, again, don't know which way he would go first, but to me, that seems to be the most obvious variable.

29:56Kristen Soltis Anderson:or most obvious variable.

29:58Kara Swisher:Are you looking like an idiot publicly to a wide range of people, in other words? Like a lot of people, as opposed to, say, the labor secretary who just seems naughty in a really bad way kind of thing. Because we've had naughty cabinet members forever, from what I can glean and stuff. But it doesn't break through with voters. More like Kash Patel drink down in the beer is a real bad visual, for example.

30:20Kristen Soltis Anderson:Well, you know how Donald Trump feels about visuals. Like that's really, really, really important. The public image. Do you look the part? And if you begin to fail on those dimensions, that's often when it's time for he's looking for somebody different.

30:35Kara Swisher:So is that a good thing? As you said, a shakeup isn't a bad thing, right? It shows you're, you know, look busy, Jesus is coming kind of thing, like that kind of thing.

30:43Kristen Soltis Anderson:Well, yeah, I think especially because of what you said about his brand as the apprentice guy, I think the idea that you, I mean, remember, like, think about what he did with Doge when he first came into office. He just went through and slashed and burned. So we're going to fire a whole bunch of people. I mean, that is his brand, which which it should not just be isolated to lower rungs. If you're really going to live through, you know, live up to it and press through with it. it almost uniquely is probably a good thing for Trump in a way that it might not even be for other administrations. Right.

31:19Kara Swisher:No, his brand is firing. His brand is getting rid of incompetence. And now he keeps them. And you're like, oh, my God, you're keeping the incompetence. I would agree, having watched all those shows.

31:28Kristen Soltis Anderson:I mean, the last question is, for all of this, whether it's court appointments or cabinet appointments, what do you think the United States Senate is likely to look like after November? And how likely is it that you think you will be able to get someone confirmed through a Senate that potentially has more Democrats in it than it does today? I mean, those are things that I think are probably also weighing on the minds of the Susie Wileses of the world who are keeping track of that.

31:52Kara Swisher:Yeah, the incompetence might have to stay. So one of the things that's interesting also happening is the federal government is suing multiple states over attempts to ban betting on Calci and other platforms. Now, let's be clear, Donald Trump's children are part of this, are on the boards or advisors to both Polymarket and Kalshi. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is arguing that it has the sole authority, that's what they're using to regulate these predictions markets. Meanwhile, Polymarket is apologizing after users were allowed to bet on the fate of the U.S. pilots whose jet was downed in Iran, pretty loathsome, saying it did not meet their integrity standards.

32:27Kara Swisher:Incredible. Both Polymarket and Kalshia are now rolling out campaigns to attract female users framing prediction markets as another way to be a hashtag girl boss, which, by the way, girl boss is over, kids, boys. We've been talking a lot about these markets here on Pivot, and you and I have talked about it. And so I want to play something Scott said a few weeks ago and get your thoughts. Let's listen. These speculative markets, speculation markets, or prediction markets have essentially put pollsters into a certain extent, investment banking analysts, out of work. Because guess what? They're much— Kind of.

32:55Kara Swisher:I would push back on that. I just met with a bunch of pollsters on this topic. Go ahead. In my opinion, they're done. If you look at the prediction markets record versus pollsters in the last election, the prediction markets kicked their ass. All right, pollster. What's your response? I was trying to defend you there. Talk about what's happening with them and your thoughts on it and what you like and don't like about them. And just so you know, there's another possible nail in the coffin for polling. There's now something called silicon sampling. that uses AI models to simulate survey responses, not real people.

33:30Kara Swisher:Talk a little bit about what's happening here in the polling market.

33:33Kristen Soltis Anderson:Sure. So I have a lot of thoughts on both of these. First, to Scott's point, I do not think that prediction markets are going to put polling out of business. One, because 99 % of what pollsters do is not polling that tries to track who is going to win an election. Like, I know that's the most public thing that people see from our industry, But 99 % of it is message testing, strategy, model building, the sorts of things for which being within margin of error, meaning your result is within three points in either direction, like that's okay. That's sort of understood.

34:08Kara Swisher:Give me an example. Just make it up. Just like you poll what?

34:11Kristen Soltis Anderson:So I can tell you about the polling we've done on. I've done some polling on prediction markets where, you know, I'm asking to what extent are people using them? What are they using them for? And those are the kinds of things that are valuable for somebody who might be trying to decide, do I invest in one of these companies? Like, if I'm going to regulate them, what sort of regulatory approach should I take? It's the sort of thing where, like, I'll give you an example. In our poll, we found about one-third of people either bet on prediction markets, that's not a majority of them, or, like, use the data.

34:44Kristen Soltis Anderson:Like, either they tune into it just for entertainment purposes or what have you. So if my poll shows 36 percent of people fall into that category, the real number, assuming that I've done my survey right, the real number could be a few points off in either direction. And it's not the end of the world. It still means my analysis is still useful. Directionally, it's telling us something interesting about where things are going. I think this focus so exclusively on polling as a crystal ball to tell me if an election is going to get won by candidate A or candidate B just sort of misunderstands our industry.

35:18Kristen Soltis Anderson:But the second thing is what is causing these prediction markets to give the predictions they are? So think about there was a man, I think he was based in France, who placed a huge bet in the last election that Donald Trump was going to win. And afterwards, you know, he makes this like six-figure sum off of his bet, and that's all great. And they ask him, you know, how'd you do it? And he said, oh, I commissioned a poll. The polls are still an input to what these prediction markets are doing. In a world without polls, your prediction market is running on vibes and fundraising numbers, which are fine, but polls are an extremely, they are a load-bearing pillar in what people think about what's going to happen in an election.

36:00Kara Swisher:So predictions would be a trailing indicator? How do you look at that?

36:05Kristen Soltis Anderson:Yes. So I think that in general, well, I think when it comes to election results, they don't have to be a trailing indicator. But I think that polls are an input. They are not the only input. So other things can change, right? My poll can say that so-and-so is going to win the primary in Texas, but all of a sudden some new news story could break that shows that Ken Paxton or John Cornyn did something, you know, that could upend the race. Who knows? It's usually Ken Paxton. And then the prediction market would be the leading indicator ahead of when the poll is going to capture that. But you still need the poll involved.

36:41Kristen Soltis Anderson:And that's also what I think about this whole synthetic respondents, AI respondents. You know, nowadays you're seeing more people like, yeah, and there were some attempts to do this in the 2024 election that I think were actually less accurate.

36:54Kara Swisher:Explain what people, what it is. You use AI model. Explain for people who don't understand. Yeah.

36:58Kristen Soltis Anderson:So if you've ever used one of these models, whether it's your ChatGPT or your Claude, and you can train Claude or ChatGPT or whoever to kind of learn a certain persona, imagine that you've then trained a thousand different personas that kind of look like a real voter. OK, I've trained one persona to be a 40-year-old woman living in Orlando, Florida, and she's a moderate Republican. Now I've got another bot that is trained to be a conservative Democrat, and he lives in rural Pennsylvania. And then basically you just ask those thousand AI personalities to tell you, are you voting for a Republican or a Democrat?

37:39Kristen Soltis Anderson:And then you take those results and you say, hey, look, I did a poll. I did a poll of a thousand AI people who represent real voters. And I just think presenting that as a poll is disingenuous. I think you can present it as a modeled estimate. Like, I think there's lots of things you can present it as. Do you use that? Do you use modeled, like use AI? How do you use it in polls? So the way we use AI, you can use AI to help, you know, with programming tasks. It's enormously helpful. You can use AI to help you analyze data when it comes back. Like the old school way of analyzing polling data is you do a survey and you get back cross tabs that is this like 500 page PDF with a ton of numbers on each page.

38:23Kristen Soltis Anderson:And you as the pollster are sifting through looking for stuff that's meaningful. The fact that you can feed that in and have AI tell you, hey, here are the top 10 most interesting things in that poll. Eight out of 10 are going to be pretty good. one out of the 10 will be right, but not really that important. And then one will be like completely wrong. And so you still have to, as the pollster, exercise your judgment, go through your own data and know. But like there are useful applications of AI in polling. But ultimately, if you think about those synthetic personas, what's training that synthetic 40-year-old suburban mom who lives in Orlando on how she ought to respond.

39:04Kristen Soltis Anderson:It's probably a poll. It's probably a poll that was done to originally. So all of this, whether it's prediction markets or these synthetic AI samples, all of them at their root have real polling as an input. And it's like a game of telephone. And they're just like the next piece in the line. And you can add other useful inputs that might give them some advantages. But they're still not a replacement for polling. They are just a different application of polling.

39:33Kara Swisher:So when you say that the federal government is saying that commodity futures change should be regulating them, they're not regulating them. Is it fair? Is it sort of like, it reminds me a little bit of your, like, commerce people, retail people who are offline having to fight with online. They had distinct advantages here. They can do whatever, these people, to grow large. What do you imagine? Who should be—you know, states are rushing in because they have long-regulated gambling. Every state has its different gambling laws, and that's not something the federal government ever did. So is it like gambling, from your perspective, or how should they be regulated when you think about it, given presumably you're not that regulated, but you have a set of standards that you're working around?

40:17Kristen Soltis Anderson:I think the big challenge is how do you balance the value that a prediction market can provide to society beyond it's just entertainment, right? Like, what is the value beyond entertainment of I'm betting on who's going to win the Super Bowl? And so we have to decide, do we think that's an acceptable form of entertainment? But the promise of prediction markets is theoretically that you can also surface new information about things that have not yet happened that might be valuable for the public to know. The question is then, like, when does that cross into insider trading? Like for me, I feel I've never bet on a prediction market because I would feel uncomfortable about like I come out of the field with a survey.

41:02Kristen Soltis Anderson:I then know what's happening in the Texas primary. And therefore, I can know, I think candidate X, Y or Z is probably up. And if I really trust my data, why don't I put a couple thousand bucks on on this bet? And I just don't feel right about that. It's something about it feels like insider trading.

41:19Kara Swisher:Is that insider? You're just having more insight, right? That's kind of an interesting example. You have some, is that insider or that was your own data?

41:26Kristen Soltis Anderson:So I don't, I think you're right that that's not insider trading in the way that, but it is like, it is non-public information that I would be using to benefit. It's not the same as being an insider at a company where there are, you know, the SEC has very strict rules around that. But I think it's that muddying of the waters, right? And so you've been seeing this, too, with some of these markets that have had bets around things like, will the United States do military Operation X? And all of a sudden, right before it happens, you see somebody bets like$300 ,000 on yes.

42:00Kara Swisher:Yes, because they're sitting next to Trump in the White House and they just heard it, right?

42:04Kristen Soltis Anderson:And so I do think that that raises some real questions. if we're going to have rules around insider trading, when does that start to bleed over into what is or is not allowable conduct in terms of prediction markets?

42:17Kara Swisher:You know, but sometimes it's not insider. Like, it sounds crazy, but when Warner Brothers was$7 and that all the bidding started, I'm like, oh, these rich people will pay anything. And so I bought 10 shares because I was like, and it was only 10 because I was like, I think they're dumb, stupid money. So they're going to overpay. And I just, and I took myself out for a nice dinner because I was right. And that was information I had, but anyone could have figured it out. Dumb, stupid money, for example. And thank you for the dinner, Ellisons. I appreciate it. When you have these things doing this, when they're putting in this, they kind of muddy the line.

42:52Kara Swisher:There's also these betting on heinous things, right? Which makes it feel like gambling. And then attracting female users is a problem. They've got a bad reputation from the get-go, including attracting the attention of regulators, right? like in terms of their bad behaviors?

43:08Kristen Soltis Anderson:Yeah, so when I look at the polling I've done on this, and again, in disclosure, I did polling for an organization. It's all publicly available, but sort of an entity that I think invests in some of these prediction markets. And in general, just a lot of people don't know that much about them. Like that doesn't necessarily mean that everybody loves them. They're pretty split on whether it's good or bad. But everybody's got an attitude about it. Everybody has like an opinion of some sort. But when we ask about prediction markets, like half of Americans have no idea how they feel about it. Most have not heard anything in the news about a prediction market in the last 12 months.

43:45Kristen Soltis Anderson:So there is a real risk and real opportunity for that industry. And it's why they're trying to get out ahead of it and say, hey, right now, like in my data, it showed it, too. If you are male, if you are under the age of 50, if you are higher educated, higher income, like you are the most likely to know about prediction markets and be interested in them and think they're a good thing. And so they're trying to say, OK, we've got to tell our story or someone else is going to tell our story. And that's why you're seeing efforts to try to expand beyond that initial core.

44:16Kara Swisher:So they've got an opportunity despite all the bad press. But it seems like the bad press keeps piling on, this U.S. pilots jet thing. I thought, oh, my God. I thought they said they were.

44:26Kristen Soltis Anderson:But for, you know, for any for a platform that has control over what markets can be made and not made, you know, having that judgment of what where's the upside is the upside in maximizing the sorts of things people can bet on and not restricting it too tightly, knowing that we're going to have a couple of these that are like cringeworthy versus more tightly regulating it, sort of playing it safer. you have higher upside in terms of your favorability, but you then as a platform are in that role that you will recall the social media companies did not want to be in when it came to like deciding where's the boundaries of political speech.

45:05Kristen Soltis Anderson:How do you decide what constitutes a market that is out of bounds? So you don't want to be in that business.

45:13Kara Swisher:So there's some of them that did better by looking safer, right? Like right now from the polling, do you think that doing what anything goes is a particularly good way to do it?

45:24Kristen Soltis Anderson:No. And I think there is a significant difference between people's comfort level with prediction markets as a sort of adjacent to the sorts of betting and chance things that they know. But it's slightly better than just chance because you can use your own judgment to say, OK, I think X, Y and Z is going to happen. You can use your own smarts toward it accordingly. I think that's why it could have a slightly better, it could wind up with people liking it more than they like something like sports betting where you're just like, oh, I hope this team wins. I like them. But there are real downsides if you have people creating these horrible or unsavory markets where it feels like you've just turned something very serious into something grotesque.

46:07Kara Swisher:No, it feels like we're into cockfighting. That's what it feels like. We're like in the cockfighting mode. Like, I don't mind a little bit of a boxing match, but I don't really want to watch animals rip each other apart. Right. Either like some people do. But it sort of feels it has that sort of stink to it. Let me last question is, you know, Scott is absolutely saying your business is finished. You're out of work because of them. Give one more answer to Scott Galley, please. Smack him. Smack him back to last Sunday.

46:35Kristen Soltis Anderson:Look, the political polling industry is going to be fine because when we are in moments of deep uncertainty, that is the moment when people, companies, trade associations, you name it, people are the most hungry to know what the heck is everybody thinking? Where is this all headed? And with the understanding that polling is not the only or perfect way to get a read on that, but is a, as I described it, like a load-bearing pillar, it's a really important input. it. I mean, when the world is in a moment of turmoil or dramatic change, that is when people want this data more than ever. And where something that is trained on polling data, but kind of off and not quite there, is not going to be, as much as real polling is imperfect, it's still the real thing.

47:29Kara Swisher:Yeah, I always am like, I always with Scott, I'm like, what's in there? Who's doing it? Who's doing the betting? I don't know who they are, right? Like, It could be a bunch of, it probably is a bunch of white bro millennials. And I don't, that's their opinion, not everybody's opinion. That's my thing. And especially if there's not a lot of women in there, there's not a lot of different economic groups. You don't get a really particularly good sample. That's my feeling.

47:52Kristen Soltis Anderson:When we get closer to the election, the safest and healthiest way to consume polling data is just take it and throw it in the average. Don't panic about any one individual poll. Everything's going to be all right. I know.

48:04Kara Swisher:Thank you. Well, I don't know about the last part. I don't know about the last part. Anyway, you crazy bastards. You know, like I say, every accusation is a confession. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, OpenAI gets into podcasts.

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49:22Kara Swisher:Get 20 % off your Delete Me plan when you go to joindeliteme.com slash pivot and use the promo code pivot at checkout. The only way to get 20 % off is to go to joindeleteme.com slash pivot and enter the code pivot at checkout. That's joindeleteme.com slash pivot, code pivot.

49:40Kara Swisher:For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016, I've had a front row seat. I am officially running for president of the United States. It's going to be only America first. America first. Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol building. But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm going to ask in our new show from Vox.

50:18Kristen Soltis Anderson:The idea of like a post-Trump or not exactly Trump-focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items. It really does feel like so reactive.

50:25Kara Swisher:You know, I think this Iran thing is also going to cause a big split in the GOP. So far, it doesn't among like people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump. But like for the first time, you see on a major issue, open opposition from the start of this war. I'm Estet Herndon and welcome to America Actually.

50:46Kristen Soltis Anderson:Hi, I'm Brene Brown.

50:47Kara Swisher:And I'm Adam Grant.

50:48Kristen Soltis Anderson:And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop.

50:50Kara Swisher:A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning. It's going to be fun. We rarely agree. But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

51:02Kristen Soltis Anderson:That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

51:15Kara Swisher:Christian, we're back with more news. You just sort of talked about this, the idea of where you get your narrative and information from. It has to be good and wide. So OpenA has acquired the tech news podcast, TBPN. The online talk show focuses by the minute analysis of tech news and interviews with top tech leaders. TPBN averages 70 ,000 viewers per episode across everything. And let me just say they are tiny compared to Pivot and other things. Tiny, tiny, tiny. That said, it's become popular among a certain group of Silicon Valley power players who go on it because they want to be licked up and down all day.

51:47Kara Swisher:Oh, I'm sorry, boys. Did I say that too wrong? Okay, sometimes you're spiky and fun. But really, it's pretty much up to me PR. OpenAI says the show will stay editorially independent, which we do not believe. Talk about this idea of buying narratives when you're thinking about it. Because, you know, a lot of people want to, you know, you do polling so you have better narratives and craft messages. That's one of the things you do for people is tell them how to craft their messages. Talk a little about this effort. And, you know, that's in the backdrop of many tech companies trying to buy into various things like Paramount, etc.

52:24Kristen Soltis Anderson:So what this reminds me of is there's actually a piece out in today, which I guess the day we're taping this, New York Times. David Plouffe, who I think is very, like, still one of the smartest minds on the Democratic side. I love this piece. Please talk about this. Yeah, this piece is essentially saying that everything is content creation now. That if you are running for office, if you are engaged in politics, the most important thing you need to be doing is creating content. That if you are relying on anybody else to get your message out but you, you are foolish. And that you need to essentially have a studio within your campaign headquarters where you are just nonstop producing content.

53:05Kristen Soltis Anderson:Because everything now is that. I think that's really smart. You know, I think about that in terms of, like, look at the media properties in the political space that are really, like, thriving and doing exciting stuff now. The, like, the pucks and the punch bowls and all of that. I mean, they're very focused on, like, we are constantly creating content. We're finding a million new channels to do it. Sometimes it's in-person events. Sometimes it's digital. But it is a, like, always-on kind of approach. And I think companies realizing this is probably smart, although there's a flip side to this, which is, you know, we've been going through a moment in the last few years where it feels like, you know, everybody's got a new podcast, Cara.

53:47Kristen Soltis Anderson:You know, everybody's like, ah, I'm going to create content. If you build it, they will come. And that's not true at all. Lots of people can build podcasts that or, you know, create content that sort of goes out into the ether to die. And especially if it doesn't feel authentic, if it feels driven by a corporate narrative, it starts to lose some of what might make content great otherwise. So, like, I imagine there are a bunch of candidates who could take Pluff at his word and start doing what he says and would produce terrible content.

54:16Kara Swisher:Yes, it has to be good and genuine. Yeah, you're right. 100%. Yeah, so that was a really interesting piece. And I really I like David. And it was absolutely true. Although it's kind of like no shit, Sherlock. I was like, what? You're kidding. The content's important.

54:28Kristen Soltis Anderson:No, but you and I think like, oh, yeah, no kidding. But it is truly this idea that politics is now about being always on media messaging nonstop. Like that is actually something that is not native to a lot of people.

54:43Kara Swisher:Which is important. I think Donald Trump has proven that for many years, obviously. Now it's getting, the show's getting a little old in the tooth right now and kind of crazy, but that's all right. It's a little like network at the very end when Howard had some problems. But, you know, you see AOC did it from the get-go, was very genuine to herself. And she's obviously talking her own book, but it's very effective. Same thing with Mamdani, who's been very good. And he's continuing to govern that way, if you notice all his really interesting. And they're good. They're good. They're fun. And they're creative.

55:16Kara Swisher:You don't have to agree with them to not say, wow, look at that. That's really well done. Especially during Snowstorm, he did a couple of good ones that were just sort of big. It wasn't political. It was just, here's how we're doing it. And they were funny and quirky. His whole thing, there was one he did, The Smile, where he has that weird smile, and his whole staff made fun of his smile. And I thought it was based on the movie Smile, which was a horror movie, which was funny. He's very on top of things. And so are a lot of, by the way, Republicans. Some Republicans do a good job at it. Not as many, but Trump certainly, absolutely, for many years has done a really good job.

55:50Kara Swisher:I think the problem with these things is people don't realize tech has tried this a dozen times. Many years ago, Yahoo tried to do a news product, and that didn't work because they weren't doing any original reporting or anything else. They were just mouthing stuff. Andreessen Hards famously had a blog and called me and said they were going to beat me at my own game. And I'm like, good fucking luck. First of all, media is hard, and it doesn't make money. I'm sorry. Like, you're entering a really, like, what are you doing? And it didn't work. They've tried a number of times, that particular group.

56:20Kara Swisher:And, you know, it's always sort of failed. They welded it a little bit, like around the edges, tried to, you know, to create some. And it just doesn't happen. So I think one of the things is I get that you feel more comfortable in these settings where people are a little bit like, your giant brain is so smart. Tell me how that works. And I think that has value, by the way. You know, startup people are always interested in how did I do that, right? How did you do that? And they don't want any pushback. They just want to hear your techniques, whatever, even if it's PR. But eventually it's not truthful, right, of like the real struggles companies have.

56:57Kara Swisher:And when you have a little friction with a reporter, it does create really interesting conversations. And the only person I would look to would be Apple's Steve Jobs. He kept coming back to be interviewed by me, even though I know I irritated him, right? Because it was an interesting conversation and it would help him. It clarified things. We were fair with him at the same time. I don't think we ever pulled any ridiculous, stupid, snarky moves. But in a lot of ways, I feel responsible for this kind of nonsense because they just don't want to talk to anyone they consider difficult and would prefer to be.

57:27Kara Swisher:And I don't think that is the best outcome editorially. I just don't. I just don't think it becomes. I think there'll be a backlash and they'll start talking to actual reporters that are fair. That's my feeling. But I don't know. Maybe I'm hoping. I don't really want to talk to them anymore anyway. So it doesn't matter in some level. But I don't know. We'll see. It's a small amount of money to pay for possible good PR in a new, fresh way.

57:52Kristen Soltis Anderson:Is it a small amount of money? I feel like the reporting was that it was not a small amount of money.

57:55Kara Swisher:Yeah, but for them, it's a small amount of money. And they've said that, essentially, on the show. It's like, that was a lot of money. We're taking it and running. And that will be the end of it, I suspect. But it's glad they have people telling them they're great. That's really good, because they need that. Because, you know, money doesn't seem to make them happy. In any case, we'll see. Do you see a lot of, are you impressed by a lot of political outfits? Give me things that you think have done it well in the political space or of corporate space.

58:23Kristen Soltis Anderson:Well, yeah. So I'll cross party lines and say that I think that AOC is somebody who, an example that I always give of something that she did that has just like lodged in my brain. and I wish every politician would understand that this is the way the world works, is she appeared on a skincare influencers platform. This was like two or three years ago. This wasn't this isn't terribly recent. But she went on to talk about sunscreen regulation. Like right now, if you try to buy sunscreen in the U.S., there are sunscreens that are better elsewhere in the world, but you cannot get them here. They're not FDA approved.

59:00Kristen Soltis Anderson:They're not dangerous. Everything's fine with them. They just for whatever reason, you can't get them here. And so she went on the Skincare Influencer Show to talk a little bit about that specific issue. And like, isn't it crazy that you can't get these good sunscreens here? Which is not an issue that is obviously right-left coded. Or if anything, it's almost more right-coded. It's like, hey, the government is regulating away your right to have this really good sunscreen. But she went somewhere where people who are not necessarily going to tune in and watch her on MSNBC or MSNOW, whatever we're calling it.

59:31Kristen Soltis Anderson:You know, that's not the audience she's going after. She's going after people who might be much more loosely attached to the political process, but she's getting herself in front of them on an issue that they care about with some credibility. And that opens the door then to say, hey, come follow me. You may not follow members of Congress because that may seem lame and horrible, but I am not as lame and horrible as the rest of them. So please come follow me. And you build that audience. And I think most politicians, if you were like, go on a skincare, I mean, you wouldn't want that for most of them, but just whatever the equivalent of that is.

1:00:05Kristen Soltis Anderson:Like, you want to talk about emissions regulations? Like, go on a car podcast. I just, I think that most people in Washington are not thinking in that gear. And that is where the future is going to be won. It's not.

1:00:19Kara Swisher:And also corporations, too, participating. I think Wendy's does a good job. I think King Arthur Baking. You can name a dozen of them. Sometimes they can spin out of control, but often it's a really interesting way to sort of genuinely explain yourself to people, you know, as long as it's not cringe, right, in some fashion over advertising.

1:00:39Kristen Soltis Anderson:I 100 percent. I mean, if you're not out there, if you're not telling your story, someone else is. So it's important to go out there. It's important to be in places where it's not just it's important to be. in, I think, non-obvious places. But I also, like, the tension is then you don't want to do stuff that's forced and feels cringeworthy. But just letting the other side own the airspace or letting your opponents own the airspace is not really as much of a viable option.

1:01:07Kara Swisher:Yeah. Very quickly, obviously, banks and advisors are working on the SpaceX IPO dealer being required to buy subscriptions to Grok, Musk's terrible AI chatbot. They're going to do it anyway because they'll do anything it takes. They'll tell you, sure, we'll buy your shitty product for if you'll give us the banks. He's also asked them to advertise on X, was less insistent on that request. Obviously, they're going to all do it. That I'm not surprised by, but I'm just curious, have you done any polling on Elon now post, you know, he's now going to be very wealthy again, once again, more wealthy than he was before.

1:01:38Kara Swisher:Where is his polling? Have you done much on where he sits? Because he's about to enter the political spectrum again quite significantly, it looks like.

1:01:46Kristen Soltis Anderson:I mean, I still think that he has residual favorability from Republicans. who I think have by and large forgotten his doge. Well, I was gonna say the very big public falling out that he had with Trump that got very ugly, very quickly. That all but seems to have been kind of memory hold at this point. But there is still that lingering negativity from Democrats. It may not be as acute. I mean, I have not heard reports of like protests outside Tesla dealerships in the way that you had about a year ago. So it feels like the temperature has turned down, but it is not as though anybody has converted back to liking him or not liking him.

1:02:27Kristen Soltis Anderson:Wherever you were a year ago, you're probably still in about the same place.

1:02:31Kara Swisher:So when you're a Republican getting money from him, it's worth it, correct now? Or is it a bad thing? Because he lost in Wisconsin. He lost a lot of his presence tends to be a problem for some people.

1:02:43Kristen Soltis Anderson:I think he is not as much of a potent lightning rod as he was a year ago. When we were in the midst of Doge being in the news every single day, some new agency getting shut down or somebody getting fired or something happening that was causing some stir, you know, him showing up in the White House, him in the White House was one of his kids, you know, like that's not happening anymore. And so I think him having less, he is less of a lightning rod today than he was a year ago. So I think that would probably lessen any, you know, downside to having him just give us the money.

1:03:20Kara Swisher:But he shouldn't act up again, correct, Greta?

1:03:23Kristen Soltis Anderson:As last time I was on your show, I said like, less chainsaw, more Mars. And I stick to it, I think, to the extent that he has spent the last year doing less chainsaw and more Mars. I don't think that it's necessarily that he's won back anybody from the left. But I do think that the temperature has been turned down around him to where he's a little less radioactive.

1:03:40Kara Swisher:Right. Less chainsaw, more Mars. That's what you got to do. Build your fucking rockets, Elon. I've said that. And I think you were absolutely right back then. All right, Kristen, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

1:04:18Kara Swisher:We'll be right back. 413. While supplies last, selection varies by location.

1:04:28Kristen Soltis Anderson:Okay, Kristen, let's hear some wins and fails. You go first. All right, well, we're going to talk space. And this is a, mine is a win and a fail combined. A win is that as you and I are recording, probably right about now, Americans are flying around the backside of the moon. That feels like the biggest possible win. The fact that these, that the rocket took off and it was fine and it wound up working is unbelievable. But the fail is the toilets do not seem to be staying in operation on this. This is a subject of great interest to my daughters. They are like really, really, really trying to keep up on the what is the status of the toilets on this Artemis.

1:05:08Kristen Soltis Anderson:I think Orion might actually be the name of like the part that they are in. But so it's both a win and a fail.

1:05:14Kara Swisher:I think NASA has shined itself up a little bit. It's always it's been sucked away by Bezos and Musk. But I think NASA feels kind of cool. I think their social media is excellent. I think Victor, Victor the pilot is such a hunk. Like, like all of them are and all the whole team are amazing.

1:05:31Kristen Soltis Anderson:They have a great inspirational message. I mean, just every time you hear them talk and it doesn't feel like hypermedia trained either. Again, to what we were talking about earlier with like, it just feels like you found genuinely incredible people and are sending them to do an incredible thing on behalf of humanity.

1:05:45Kara Swisher:Yeah, I agree. I think they just are doing flawless, speaking of social media, flawless social media. I haven't seen one thing that I've, the pictures are beautiful. The enthusiasm, again, it doesn't feel cooked in some fashion. The fail is the continued sort of, I know, like you said, I'm not clutching my pearls, but come on. I think people are sick of this. And I think there's going to be a significant backlash to politicians that, I think there's a real opportunity for people to be funny and nice and, you know, sort of more open-minded. minded rather than dunking, dunking, dunking. I just have this, I think what Trump is doing is the step too far.

1:06:23Kara Swisher:And I can't even believe I'm saying that because I, oh, I'm never that person who goes, oh, you're kidding. Can you believe what he said? I always believe what he says, because I think he's like that. But I do think people are tiring of it. And I think even though they're sloughing it off, they're not sloughing it off. They're, you know, oh, that's him. I think there's more, it's like, I'm tired of hearing this now. And I think there's a real opportunity for politicians to make people feel better. Like I know in political life in general and also not do it in a stupid way where you just pretend it's not happening, like that kind of thing.

1:06:56Kara Swisher:So I do think that's been a real fail and I do think it's a bigger problem than people think. That's one. My win is the Netflix documentary Dynasty, The Murdochs. I have to say, I watch this, like I know everything about the Murdochs. I really do. I'm in this documentary, by the way, on Netflix. It's about the Murdoch Empire. I found out stuff about Rupert Murdoch that was fascinating. I thought it was incredibly, Liz Garbus directed it. I thought it was a terrific documentary. I learned a lot about this. I thought it was very fair to the family at the same time. Sad to watch, you know, this kind of fall apart.

1:07:32Kara Swisher:And I'm endlessly fascinated by Rupert Murdoch, but, you know, he's getting on in years and everything. But I do think it was a really interesting documentary. And not just because I'm in it, although I think I'm spectacular in it. No, I'm kidding. No, the people who are mostly, who've done all the reporting at the Times did an amazing job. And so I recommend it. I recommend watching it. He's a unique political figure, as you know, but I learned a lot from the documentary. Have you seen it?

1:07:59Kristen Soltis Anderson:I have not. I will say the last movie that I watched that referenced Rupert Murdoch was, I rewatched The Devil Wears Prada from 2006 in preparation for, you know, the rebirth, the two devil, two curious that's coming up. And he has mentioned there's a scene where it's when Meryl Streep's character, Miranda Priestly, is sort of her husband is divorcing her. and she says like, Rupert Murdoch should cut me a check for all the papers that I've sold for him. Assuming that like she fuels, you know, all these gossip, gossip rag headlines. And so, yeah. Anyhow, I haven't seen the movie you were talking about, but I did see Devil Wears Prada.

1:08:38Kara Swisher:Yeah, it's a series, a couple of episodes. It's really good. I shouldn't say this,

1:08:42Kristen Soltis Anderson:but I'm in the Devil Wears Prada too. Oh, this is exciting.

1:08:47Kara Swisher:Yeah, it's like, I'm sure it's Blink and you'll see it, but they did a lot of, it was reported already and the reports were true. I don't know if they cut me, But I'm there. I get to play myself a lot, Kristen, besides in on billboards in Times Square. But I actually for some reason, I'm the go to person now. If they have AI in the plot, they bring in characters. It's like Wolf Blitzer.

1:09:09Kristen Soltis Anderson:So there is I have one funny story about this. You know, that movie Edge of Tomorrow or it used to be called like or like Live, Die, Repeat is what they rebranded. Yeah, I love that movie. Emily Blunt and Tom Cruise. Fantastic movie. At the beginning, there's a scene where it's Jake Tapper interviewing and it's a panel where it's like Olivier Knox from I think he was at the Post at that time. Kiki McClain, Democratic strategist, and then Tom Cruise is in the middle. But like that scene never happened. They edited him in and they edited Tom Cruise on top of Ross Douthat. Perfect. I like it. I'm there for it.

1:09:44Kristen Soltis Anderson:So because I was I was watching the movie and I was like, was like, who is the Republican that was on set that day? that got edited out to be Tom Cruise. Was it me? I don't think so. Oh, yeah, that would be harder.

1:09:55Kara Swisher:Wow. Okay, good to know. I love that movie. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Okay, that's the show. Again, thank you for joining me today, Kristen. Everyone should watch her polling. She also appears on CNN and she does wonderful stories and the pieces in the New York Times, which I learn a lot from. She lets the voters speak. And actually, it's really interesting to hear them because it's a little more complex. And that's why it's great. And that's important to understand the complexity of all this.

1:10:32Kara Swisher:Anyway, thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday. Thank you, Kristen. Thank you for having me. Today's show was produced by Laura Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Endredgett engineered this episode. Rich Shibley edited the video. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

1:11:05Kara Swisher:Sam Altman, Pivot's not for sale. Sorry, so sorry.

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