"Free Speech Warriors," EU's AI Act, and Guest Dan Pfeiffer

23:29How do you feel about that? I think it's a different side of the same coin. And that is to say we're, first off, I do think the right position is to say the administration and leadership, they're administrators. We're here to create an environment for free speech and to host and sponsor critics, but we're not here to be critics ourselves. And also, whatever line we decide, if we decide anyone can say pretty much anything, I think that, and also I think that's a defensible position. I'm not talking about the academics. I'm talking about their critics, like the Bill Ackmans, who go on and on about free speech, but then is trying insanely to get people fired and saying they shouldn't be able to say these things.

24:08Well, he's applying the wrong standard or the wrong reason they should be fired. It's fine if they're total free speech, but they can't fire Larry Summers as president of Harvard when in an academic setting, he starts doing research or questioning the genetic, is there a genetic cause for the difference in aptitude among males and females? He was basically fired for that. And so, well, okay, that's not only should be free speech, that should be academic freedom, but he was fired for it. So when it comes to something like that, where there's real sensitivities or for some reason sensitivities around that group, we apply, we say there isn't free speech.

24:44Yeah, but there's inconsistency everywhere. I think they just have to decide where is the line and then hold to it. And then if they're smart, they're going to say the leadership here isn't engaged in that. We're here to schedule classes, raise money, and make sure that, you know, the quad gets clean. But we're not going to start weighing in on these topics. Yeah. No, I'm just – I'm struck by all the free speech warriors who are now saying you can't say that. It's just – I just – they're just – everybody is inconsistent here, every single side of this. And I'm consistent. I think you should be fired for saying some things that are problematic, and you shouldn't – and you should be able to say a lot of things.

25:20I just would like a consistent from all these groups. You know, it reminds me of, you know, I'm for free speech except for that guy, except for that doesn't suit me. It's not in my interests. Right. And that's and then you get all hot and bothered, but you can't get hot and bothered about something else. Right. I think it's just all in people's self-interests. Every bit of this. It's all about determining a line and then having one line, not a plaid. You can't. And by the way, if you're going to be free speech absolutist, Rashida Tlaib wanted to speak at ASU. that canceled her thing, she should be allowed to speak.

25:54That's right. If you're going to be a free speech. But I could see why you wouldn't have her. But go ahead. And if you want Milo Yiannopoulos, whatever the hell his name is, to speak, then you have an obligation to escort him to make sure he can safely speak. You just have to pick a line. Or you might say, guess what? If anything causes too much disruption, we don't have the funds. We have the discretion to decide. We are not free speech absolutists. That's a position too. But just pick a theme and stick to it. I'm asking you to address the critics who go on and on and they get on their high horses about free speech when in fact it's also the same thing.

26:32Some of the people you have referenced, in my opinion, have made a side hustle and like the prestige and like their attention they're getting and the power they have of going after powerful people at universities. It feels like they are engaged in, I mean, yeah, they're getting really into it and they're enjoying it. And I don't think they're being friends to the university because I think, I mean, President Gay, I didn't think she handled, I didn't think she acquitted herself well. I think Harvard being ranked as the least free speech place in amongst universities and then applying these incredible standards of free speech around other things.

27:12I mean, some of the stuff, you know, did you see that chart around what's called fat phobia, I think? And I remember emails saying these are my these qualify as microaggressions and could lead to dismissal. I mean, it's like, all right, we have to have some sort of consistency in terms of these rich billionaires who are engaging in the side hustle of going after the heads like trophies of university presidents and also wanting the unmasking of students. it's a little bit of like, all right, it all comes back to the same thing, Kara, unfortunately. There's just too few people with too much fucking money.

27:49And we've become their side pieces. We've become their whores. We're so dependent upon their money. They have so much power. We have an individual who can aggregate so much wealth that he can acquire a global media platform and then invite somebody back on, on the anniversary of Sandy Hook and wave his middle finger at all parents and all of society. We have an individual who can, imagine Bob Iger says, I got an idea, Disney AI. I don't know what it means yet, but I'm going to use AI to launch a series of products focused on family-friendly AI that'll be entertaining and take our IP. And he says, you know what?

28:31It's a great idea. And I'm Bob Iger. I'm the most seasoned, famous executive in the world. I'm going to go raise a billion dollars and I'm spinning it out and I'm going to own 75 % of it. Bob Iger is going to own 75 % of it. Well, guess what? The Disney board would be like, sorry, girlfriend, you're doing no fucking such thing. But if you're so wealthy and you're able to aggregate so much capital that you can do this with your own media platform with absolutely no checks and balances, or you can start dictating campus policy from afar without even being on the board. I just think this all comes back to the fact that there's too few people with too much money.

29:06And you know who Times person of the year should have been, Cara? Times person of the year should have been money. Over the last two years, over the last two years, Cara, we have had the most legislatively unproductive session in history. And you know who's filled that void? Money. Could the Gulf have ever bought a newspaper? I might accept money. I might accept money, but I still like Harold Swift, but I might accept money. I agree with you. Yeah, I get your point. I get your point. Could 10 years ago, could the Gulf have purchased the newspaper in the UK that dictates Tory politics? Could that have happened?

29:42Could five years ago, the Gulf have purchased a US and European sport? Money wins. Money is literally washing over everything. There you go. Over everything. There you go. It's interesting. I got a note from someone before they heard our podcast that said, was just thinking that Elon raises a billion for his AI project. I bet he takes a chunk of it to license the firehose from Twitter, creating a big revenue dream that saves him from coming out of pocket, when in reality, that business should be run as part of Twitter, as part of his obligation to his investors. That sounds familiar. Right. Yeah, I know.

30:12That's what I said. I said, did you listen to Scott? Anyway, we have to get going, but you're absolutely right. Money. Money makes the world go round. All right, Scott, let's take a quick break. When we come back, the EU makes a major move toward AI regulation. We'll speak with Pod Save America co-host Dan Pfeiffer.

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31:36Scott, we're back. The EU has reached a deal on a major new law to regulate artificial intelligence. The AI Act is called. We'll set a new global benchmark for countries looking to harness AI while also trying to protect against the risks. The European Parliament will vote on the act early next year, but legislation will not take effect until at least 2025. It moves slowly. So the act includes new transparency requirements for general purpose AI models, though there are some broad exemptions for open source models. Facial recognition was apparently one of the most contentious topics putting the deal together.

32:07In the final agreement, the use of facial recognition software by police and governments would be restricted outside of certain safety and national security situations. Tech companies that want to do business with you will be asked to disclose data and do rigorous testing, particularly for high-risk applications. Companies that violate the regulation should face fines up to 7 % of global sales. I think it sounds the right direction. I don't know how much teeth it will have, but it does sound like what Biden was proposing in his executive order. Yeah, my call sign for big tech now is move fast and regulate things.

32:37I'm part of the AI accelerator group, whatever they call themselves. I think you go fast. Is that what it's called? Yeah, Accel people. De-Cell Accel. AI Accel. I don't think – I think the West wants to own this. But at the same time, I think we need to pay more and attract the best and brightest. Israel actually does a pretty good job of this, of incorporating the best and brightest oftentimes, at least into their military. I think we need brighter – not brighter. I think there's some really talented people at the very top levels of government. But I think we should – I would like to see more kids from my class at Stern think, I would really like to get a job in government.

33:16that it pays well, it's prestigious, and I'm going to get to work on cutting edge issues. Because the hard part about regulating this is that by the time the regulations get implemented and have any teeth, AI has kind of moved on to new problems, right? That this is just all moving so fast. But it's really interesting what Europe appears to be leading in terms, and you could argue it's innovation, is around regulation, because the US is starting to look at European regulation and think, is that working? And should we, you know, what can we adopt and what can we model? But the thing that the UK has always had, and, you know, it has great education institutions, great culture, it's always had the rule of fair play.

33:56And I think if Europe becomes the place where it's seen as when you deal with an organization or money comes through Europe, there's a rule of fair play here. I think that does result in economic growth. And the old trope that regulation hampers economic growth is not true. It can actually facilitate economic growth. Yeah, you've said that. I think these have to be global rules and U.S. should lead the way. That EO was a very good first step. I think we both thought that. The safety, the rigorous testing, the safety, the protection of open source, I think is important. We do both think is important.

34:32There being enough of a fine so that if they're violative, They don't just like, okay, I'll just pay the bill, essentially. And the facial recognition software, it seems to hit on all the notes. It's just that none of the companies they're regulating were based, or maybe one or two, in EU. It's all U.S. companies, right? And so if U.S. companies are dominating this, and they are, let's leave Chinese companies out of this, it should be regulated in the U.S. much more quickly. And that's a question of how quickly we'll be able to have any laws. It could be the same exact thing that happened in the previous attempts to regulate the Internet, which would be unfortunate.

35:11There seems to be more energy here to do something and more cognizance. I just I was thinking today, I mean, hands down, hands down, the most seminal technology of the last decade, if not two decades, trillions of dollars in market gap. And it's not only, of course, in one country. It's not even just in one state. It's like 80 percent of it's in seven miles of SFO International Airport. I mean, for all of our shitposting and all of our problems, there's something in the water in America, the agility, the risk taking. It is nothing short of remarkable what happens in the U.S. And at the same time, our inability to regulate our infatuation with the accoutrements of that innovation, specifically money, leads to people who put Alex Jones on their network.

36:00It's just like we have so much potential and yet we decide, okay, let's let a few individuals let us start ripping each other apart. A lack of decorum, a lack of character, a lack of comedy, a lack of patriotism, a lack of like just general decency. I just don't think people would have done this shit 10 or 20 years ago. I don't think they'd behave this way. Maybe quietly. Yeah, but they wouldn't threaten to fight in Congress. They wouldn't say on day one of my presidency, I'm going to go after my enemies. I mean, it's just like, it feels like all decorum has basically just got shit canned. Out, that shit can't, shit can't.

36:40Well, this is all about money. And that's why it's moved so slow in the U.S. But I think the government, our government in a bipartisan way should figure out a couple of key things past them. And that's how you start, right? Facial recognition seems to be easy. Safety seems to be easy, you know. And of course, be flexible as things change and not be sort of drawn in by these tech people saying no regulation because if any will hinder us. I don't think that's the case. I think they know that's not the case. And they should be part of it, too, by the way. You know, they always are. And they usually run the table on our legislators.

37:13But it certainly should be. You know, the problem, again, getting back to money. Money makes the world go round here. And they have the money. And so they'll get what they want. But EU doesn't seem to be as easily bought and paid for as our regulators do. I would argue that the same isn't true in Europe, that institutions still matter. And in the U.S. That's what I mean. They're not bought and paid for. Well, here's the thing. In the U.S., when Congress doesn't legislate, when there is no antitrust, when, you know, money fills the void. And also, it's been that way through most of history. I want to be clear.

37:47From 1945 to like the president I would call was the great era of the middle class and institutions and democracy, kind of a second enlightenment, whatever you want to call it, where we said democracy matters and we're going to pay a lot of money in taxes such that a group of really smart people that we elect can think about long-term health and well-being for our future, recognizing that all of us digress to individual needs on our own. And I feel like we're going to look back on the era from 1945 to 2000 as this real golden age. Or institutions where we said, you know what, let's try and shove people into this remarkable new innovation called the middle class.

38:22It'll create meeting opportunities, economic opportunities, a peaceful society. And it feels as if we're returning to the way things used to be and that it's much more Darwinian and much more Hunger Games. Well, speaking of that, let's bring in our friend of Pivot.

38:42Dan Pfeiffer is the co-host of Crooked Media's Pod Save America. He's also the host of a new podcast, Polar Coaster, which is launching this week and will feature analysis on the latest polls and voter trends. Welcome, Dan. Thanks for having me. So since you're the expert here, let's start with some polling. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal released a new poll with voters giving Biden the lowest job approval of his presidency at 37 percent. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Trump beats Biden 47 to 43 Now, we know it is early. The poll also shows Trump continuing to dominate the Republican field, nearly 60 percent supporting him.

39:18That's not new. But Nikki Haley has numbers that are a stronger general election candidate, beating Biden by 17 points. So talk to us about this latest one, because there's been a slew like this. It's early again. Go ahead. It is early, and there's been a consistent set of – these numbers are all kind of in the neighborhood. Slight Trump lead, Biden under 40 approval rating, Trump advantages on the economy, immigration, crime, Israel-Gaza, with Biden holding an advantage on generally abortion and democracy and civility, those sorts of issues. And I think it is – these are the polls that Democrats should take seriously but not literally.

40:01There is no question that Joe Biden is in – if the election were held today, Joe Biden would be in trouble and you can – and would lose. But if you – there's a very simple, I think, explanation, like in pure math as to why Trump is winning and Biden is not, is that in the Wall Street Journal polls, that Trump is getting 92 % of his 2020 voters and Biden's getting 87%. And that five – and that is consistent across all of the polls. And that is both, that is alarming, but that if you're the Biden team and you're looking for a silver lining, those are the easiest voters to get back are the ones who've already cast the ballot for you.

40:40And that's got to be what the focus is heading into next year. It's beginning to rebuild that coalition. If you do that, then we are headed for a, once again, a very, very close election, but one that is very winnable for Joe Biden. Okay. So we keep hearing also about Nikki Haley momentum, but realistically, is there any scenario where she gets the nomination? I would say no. I think that if you look, Nikki Haley is a non-MAGA candidate in a MAGA party. There is a whole bunch of polling shows that Ron DeSantis is actually a much more likely Republican nominee than Trump. In an NBC poll, the Republican primary from earlier this month, more than 70 % of Republican voters have Trump as their first or second choice.

41:2454 % of Republican voters have DeSantis as their first or second choice. And only 28 % have Nikki Haley as their first or second choice. And so her universe of voters, she's a factional candidate, if you will. She is consolidating this minority of the party. And it's actually in a weird way hurting her. Her approval rating keeps going down the better she does in the polls because she's going from being a non-Trump to an anti-Trump candidate. So her net approval rating right now is 12 points. It's 42-30. DeSantis, for who we all very much, myself at least, spend a lot of time making fun of for what an awkward, weird, terrible candidate he is, he has a net approval rating of 45%, right?

42:05And Trump's net approval rating of above 60. So he's the other Trump. He's the lighter. He's the other Trump, right. And if Donald Trump were to go to prison tomorrow, drop out of the race, defect to Russia, whatever else, Ron DeSantis would be the overwhelming favorite to defeat Nikki Haley in a primary. In a primary situation, even though the general, it's a real problem for someone like that. Nikki Haley is, at least as we can tell right now, and she's a relatively generic non-Trump Republican in the eyes of voters. But as of right now, she's obviously, I think, very clearly the most electable Republican who is in the mix.

42:41Is in the mix. But Trump carries those fans, the fans, I guess, which DeSantis doesn't have. is Biden, they seem unworried in the Biden administration. I've talked to a lot of people, and should they be more worried? They sort of have this, you know, grandpa's going to win again. Good old grandpa, once you get a taste of crazy uncle, you know, great uncle Trump, everyone will go, oh, that guy. It seems like that's a little sleepy to do. And I hate to use the term sleepy around Joe Biden, but, you know, I think it's just, it's like, should they be more, you know, Oh, but the last time everyone counted him out and there he was.

43:18OK, let's just have grandpa again kind of thing. He's safe. I think my guess is that in reality, the Biden folks are less worried than the general Democratic Party, which is in a state of sort of abject panic at this point. As they always are. As they always are. That is not unusual. The term bedwetter was invented for a reason to describe my party. But I think they are more worried or at least more aggressively trying to shape the race than some of these public comments, because they spent$25 million in ads in the off year. And that's not something you do if you think this race is going to naturally revert to the mean, where it'll be Joe Biden with a four or five point national poll lead.

44:00So I think that they are more worried than we think they are. But I understand why. There's no point in panicking, right? You have to go about doing your work. I think they see the path to getting there. But some of the things that they have tried thus far have not moved the needle. And I think that is probably worrisome. Dan, good to see you. So my sense of polls at this point aren't very good proxies for what will actually happen in terms of who wins and who loses. But they can be really helpful in terms of identifying key issues and messaging. If you were advising the candidates, what messages do you think are bubbling up that weren't there four years ago that they want to focus on?

44:40And then I'd be curious for you to do the same analysis that you did on the Republicans on the Democratic side. Like, is there another, is that also a foregone conclusion that Biden's the nominee? Sure. You're exactly right that the polls this far out have very little predictive value of what's going to happen, but they are essential for understanding. it's taking the temperature of where we are right now. And so, you know, put us, you know, we talk all about polls, media polls, the ones done by the Wall Street Journal, the NBC, but campaigns are doing all these polls at the same time. And from everything I hear, Democratic polls are seeing the exact same trends that we're seeing in the public polls.

45:20So this is, everyone has the same analysis of where we are. And I think it's a couple of things that would be the advice I would give Democrats and Biden in particular here is one, and you can see them doing this already, is you have to make this more of a choice, right? In all of these polls, people are much more focused on Joe Biden than Donald Trump. And for a lot of voters, they haven't really thought about Trump at all since 2021, right? You see this in the New York Times-Siena poll, the percent of voters who are concerned about Donald Trump's temperament has gone down since 2020. The percent of voters who think Donald Trump is unfit mentally for office has gone down since 2020.

46:01And so we have to focus the mind on the fact that Donald Trump is running and he is going to be the nominee and he has a very good chance of being president going forward. The second thing is on the economy. We have to stop. Democrats are in this debate of, well, people are unhappy, but the economy is great. And it doesn't really matter what the macroeconomic numbers say. It matters how people actually feel. And I think this is, you know, I know you guys have talked to this. This is a very, very strange economy for a lot of people and how they experience it. And so we have to shift jobs. The jobs numbers are a low priority for Americans right now.

46:37Their issue is not whether or not they're going to have a job. It is what the costs of goods are. It's not what the rate of inflation is. It's the price of things. And I think Democrats need to shift the framework more to away from here's what we've accomplished. Here's what all the progress we've made and focus really hard. Use what they've done as proof points for how they can lower costs and raise wages going forward and do that in a very contrastive way with Trump. In all of these polls, a place where Biden has real strength is that voters think that Donald Trump and the Republicans are more are less on the side of the middle class and more friendly towards the wealthy and corporations and Democrats.

47:13And you want to draw that contrast. So it has to be a choice, not a referendum. Which is a shift. It is a shift. That's right. There's also a lot of prognosticating about what a potential Trump second term would be, which is sort of the fear method of doing that. Trump had the town hall with Sean Hannity last week where he didn't exactly say no to abusing power in a second term, noting he would be a dictator only on day one, which you can do a lot in a day. You wrote about this in your newsletter saying many of the responses to Trump's comments are playing right into his trap. Obviously, he's playing games.

47:44I mean, you can tell it by his smirkiness. How should we be talking about it? I mean, it's terrifying and also what an asshole. You know, you sort of get that same feel off of Elon Musk or any of these. Like, they're just trying to fuck with you, essentially. Yeah, he very clearly was sort of smirking and Sean Hannity was completely flummoxed at why Donald Trump would not take his repeated offers of a lifeline in that moment. But we have focused, and I think rightfully, on Donald Trump saying on day one. But what keeps getting left out is what he said right after that, which he's going to – he basically said, I am going to abuse power to secure the border and, quote, drill, drill, drill, right?

48:25So what he is trying to do is to say, I am going to be an authoritarian, but I'm going to be an authoritarian for you. Here's how I'm going to help your life, right? We know that these are things people care a lot about, cost of energy, and border is at the top of – it's right below inflation on a lot of the polls in terms of concerns for voters. What Democrats should do is we should avoid some traps. First is we shouldn't run around talking about how strong Donald Trump is because strength is part of his appeal. We have to talk about the fact that he is weak, right? Donald Trump has never stood up to anyone in his life.

48:57He bows down to CEOs. He bows down to dictators. He's running for president, not to help you, but because he's afraid to face the consequences for his actions in office last time. Make it about his weakness, right? Donald Trump, that is a trap to make us talk about how strong and fearful he is. That's one. Two, we have to empower voters to be the ones who can stop Donald Trump. It's not that it is inevitable that he's going to take over the Robert Kagan column of his dictatorship inevitable. We have the power to stop him. Next, and I think this is really important, is we have to talk about how what Donald Trump would do, how him being a dictator or seizing power or abusing power would affect you.

49:34And I think that one great way to do this is talk about abortion. The Heritage Foundation and others have talked about how even if Donald Trump is unable to pass a federal abortion ban, they can weaponize the federal government to put, in fact, a de facto federal abortion ban. And you can do that across the board on issues about pollution and protecting clean air and clean water, about helping workers, how Donald Trump will use the federal government to make it harder for the workers who are on strike at UAW or at Starbucks and all of those things. We have to make it matter to people, because if we don't and we just say Donald Trump's going to destroy democracy, we are sort of by default saying that we are the ones who are going to defend this political system that most voters say is corrupt and doesn't work for them.

50:17And so it has to be very, very specific, because if not, we're just having this esoteric argument that means nothing to most voters and in some ways actually undergirds some of Trump's appeal that helped propel him in 2016. So the polls look really ugly for Biden. So we immediately think, I mean, they're kind of shocking. And so you immediately think, oh, wow, things are going well for us if you're a progressive. But anytime there's an election, whether it's the legislature in, I think it was Virginia or the abortion bill in Ohio, it appears that blue is winning everywhere. there. What's wrong here?

50:57Every time I see an actual election where people don't respond to a telephone or a phone survey, they actually go in and pull a handle or check a box. It feels like we're doing really well. People have been really trying very hard to square this circle, right? The polls look bad, but Democrats keep winning. And both things can be true at the same time, because these surveys we're looking at are surveys of the overall presidential election electorate, which is in most states 30 % to 40 % bigger than the people who vote in a midterm or even in a, especially in a special election. And Donald Trump does best right now with people who don't vote in midterms.

51:37He's doing best in these polls for people who didn't even vote in 2020. That's a huge part of his advantage in the New York Times-Siena poll, is he's beating Biden by 15 points by people who did not vote in 2020. So these are two separate universes. And as of right now, the presidential election universe is less Democratic-friendly than the midterm universe. And the parties have switched in this regard as the Democrats have become more a party of college-educated suburban voters. When I worked for President Obama, Republicans were a much more reliable midterm party, which is why Republicans could crush in the 2010 midterms and then lose pretty handily in 2012 when Obama was on the ballot.

52:17And the reverse is true now. Have you – I just have a couple of follow-up questions. One, since 2016 when Trump won, my guess is 10 or 20 million American voters have died and there's 10 or 20 million newer voters. How has that – so you've lost 70 and 80-somethings and you've gained 18 to 26-year-old somethings. How has that changed the electorate? And I would just be curious if you have thought about how the conflict in the Middle East is likely playing out and does it advantage Trump or Biden? And let me put that, put a caveat. It's a year from now. There'll be a whole different topic a year from now.

52:53We won't be talking about this. Right. Go ahead. 2020 was a better, Joe Biden did better in 2020, Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in the popular vote. For many reasons, one of them is the electorate was becoming slightly more demographically friendly to Democrats. Now, the challenge right now for Democrats is Donald Trump has made gains. It is a question about how much those gains are with younger Latino and black men. So that accounts for some of the demographic change, where a few years ago we thought those would automatically be Democratic votes at, you know, 85 percent Democratic. And it's much less than that now.

53:29And one of the challenges for Biden is his most disaffected group, the people who are most willing to either sit out the election or vote for a third party candidate like Cornel West or RFK Jr., are voters 18 to 29. So if Biden was performing at 20-20 levels with those younger voters, you would sort of see that more democratic shift in the electorate based on those demographics. But that's not being maximized right now because of opinions on Biden. On Gaza, the polling on this is incredibly confusing because the narrative we all get is younger Democratic voters are very angry at Joe Biden. In the CBS News poll that came out on Sunday, the only group that does that the group with the highest approval rating of Joe Biden on handling the Israeli Gaza, the Israeli Hamas conflict is voters 18 to 29.

54:24It's 50-50. And Joe Biden's underwater with all the other groups. They also asked people what to prioritize issues. Only 4 % of voters put the Israeli-Hamas conflict as a high priority. And so I think, but it could have a real impact in some states like Michigan that have a very large Arab American population, and particularly Palestinians. And so it could be, if this were to remain, I think Kara's caveat is incredibly important, If this still were at the top of the news a year from now or 11 months from now, then that's what the impact could be. Recent history says these things tend to fade in the American mindset when they're happening abroad.

55:03And maybe that will be the case here. I don't know, but it's very possible, if not likely. I will say, talking to a lot of young people, they are irritated by Biden. They are for sure. And they don't think about Trump right now. But I think they've lived with only Netanyahu. That's why. I just feel like they don't know anyone else. So they don't like Netanyahu. But at the same time, I think once they get a taste of Uncle Crazy, I think they'll remind them of the same thing, especially around abortion. Abortion is a staying issue, it feels like it is. Yes, 100%. With women especially. Even everyone says, oh, now they're done with abortion.

55:33I don't think women are done with that, putting protections in place. And I don't think they much like, look, that's another thing I hear. It's like the book, all the meddlesomeness of the Republicans, especially the religious stuff from Mike Johnson seems to stick in their craw and seems lasting. Axios recently published a list of some of the current Trump vice presidential candidates, including J.D. Vance, Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Oh, God. Carrie Lake. Oh, God. Christy Noem. Apparently, Melania is advocating for Tucker Carlson. None of these seem like very good choices. If I had to guess among this list, J.D.

56:11Vance would be his choice. But any thoughts? Any out-of-the-box thoughts? I mean, in most cases with a normal presidential nominee, you would look at whoever fit in that Venn diagram of qualified, good relationship with the president to be and electability. And I can't imagine Donald Trump thinking about it that way. And could take over. And could take over. And I think Donald Trump is the sort of person who would never hire someone that anyone could think could be their replacement. So he will not pick the best person, either the best vice president or someone who has a reelectable appeal. like if your analysis is I want someone who is never a threat to me politically, personally, socially, you end up with Mike Pence.

56:49So I think it's like, who is the Mike Pence of this group? Sort of, you know, like a kind of a large tub of applesauce, political applesauce is where I think Donald Trump ends up. I don't think he picks like Tucker Carlson because Tucker Carlson could be a bigger star than him or Nikki Haley, who he wouldn't trust or something like that. So whoever is like generic replacement level. Any of these? Maybe J.D. Vance, I guess. I don't know. loyalty, I think, would be high on this list. And the same with if something, one of the things we were talking about this week in Smiles' question was, you know, look, if one of these guys breaks a hip, and it's entirely possible, or goes to jail only for one of them, what happens?

57:27Because it could happen in that time period. This could be really fascinating. It's going to depend on whether it happens before or after the convention, right? And if it's before the convention, then we'll have what would be essentially a brokered convention where a bunch of people would try to get to a majority of that convention. Of each party. Of each party. And you would keep voting until you got to that person. I would imagine on the Democratic side, Kamala Harris would have a very large leg up in that situation. And then if it happens after the convention, then it gets very tricky. The DNC has specific rules in which they would go and use the DNC members to pick someone.

58:03I imagine, once again, that would likely be Kamala Harris if they've just voted – the majority of delegates have just voted her vice president. even trickier if ballots have been printed in states. We've been in situations like with Mel Carnahan, who was running for senator in Missouri in 2000, where a candidate dies after the ballots are printed. Anyone. Anyone anyway. Republicans have a, I don't know their exact RNC rules, but similar thing where the RNC would just pick someone to be the nominee. Likely, I think in all those cases, if it's after the convention, the VP nominee would be the person.

58:37And then they'd have to pick another vice presidential nominee. So it would be very messy and confusing and probably great for people in the content business, is my guess. If you were to pick sort of a best or worst exogenous event for either candidate, what would it be? The best thing that could happen for Joe Biden and democracy would be Donald Trump being convicted in the January 6th trial. in the, for all the bad news, although I guess the good news for Donald Trump and all this polling is in that New York Times-CNN poll, they actually asked people what would happen if Donald Trump was convicted.

59:11And only 6 % of voters switched their vote away from Trump. But that 6 % is enough to tip the election to Joe Biden. And I think we do not spend enough time talking and thinking about the very, very real possibility that Donald Trump will be sentenced to prison for multiple federal crimes three or four months before the election. And if that were to happen. That is a, we're not, I don't think we're fully anticipating what a big game changer that is. It could be for sure. Yeah. Anyway, Dan, this is fascinating. Again, you have a new podcast. You're obviously on Pod Save America each week, but your new podcast, Polar Coaster, I'm just laughing at that.

59:45I'm sorry. How did, how long did it come up to take to come up with that? We, Polar Coaster was the term that we would use in the Obama campaigns for the people who were checking the polls every single day. Oh, okay. And we say, get off the fucking polar coaster. Yeah, yeah. We've used that a little bit on Potsdamerica over the years. And my goal here with this podcast is to help people understand what the polls mean and think about what to use it from. I'm completely ignoring polls. I'm not going to be a polar coaster. There are going to be people in this world who want to ignore the polls and that's very healthy.

1:00:20But if you can't ignore the polls and you're going to live and die with them and you want to understand what they really mean, this is the podcast for you. I don't buy it. Tell me you do edibles without telling me you do edibles. You came up with that name under the influence. It kicks off. Polar Coaster kicks off on December 14th. Dan, thank you. I like Polar Coaster. Wait, pass the Doritos. Let's watch South Park. All right. And we're out. Okay, Dan, thank you so much. Awesome. Thank you, guys. I like those pods Save America, guys. Yeah, they're very likable. They're all very adoptable. They're all like these nice, deceptively good-looking young men.

1:00:55Yes, they're great. Not as young as they used to be, but nonetheless, they are. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.

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1:02:27Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. I saw I'm a big fan of Senator Romney's, and he was on Meet the Press this week, and he said something that struck me. He said that America can overcome bad policy, but it'll have a much more difficult time overcoming bad character. and he's worried about the character of the nation. And he was speaking about Donald Trump, suggesting that day one, he would abuse his powers to go after his political enemies. And I looked up characteristics of people who lack character and they believe intentionally hurting others is validated, believe they are never wrong, believe other people are responsible for their feelings and cannot take responsibility for their own decisions and don't respect boundaries.

1:03:13And I just feel as if There's just such a lack of character amongst some of our most powerful people. And that character used to be there. And I don't know if I'm just getting old and getting sort of get off my lawn. But, you know, when we have the wealthiest man in the world allowing people back on his platform that represent nothing but grief for grieving parents. When we have a president saying he's going to pursue his political enemies. It just – when we have presidential candidates, it sounds like peeing on Twitter space. It definitely feels as if there's just a lack of character that infects our most powerful – and I used the term decorum last week, but I do think it's character.

1:04:00I don't know if it's because we've replaced, you know, civics class. I think we need to bring back national service and civics in, I don't know, Cotillion or just like general – You went to Cotillion? I went to Cotillion. Just manners. For God's sake, just manners. I mean, you just don't, you know, you open doors for people. You show them a certain level of respect. You don't, if someone, if you're in a, I remember when I was on the athletic field, one of the first things we were taught in sports is if you do ever get into a fight, the moment somebody hits the ground, the fight's over. You know, there's just, you just don't, and it feels like we've lost that sense.

1:04:42Anyways, my American story. I'll move on to my win. Something a little lighter. I've been watching, and something that gets me out of these funks, is great television, of course. I've been watching season five of Fargo. Have you seen it? Oh, no, I haven't watched it at all. Anyways, it has some real talent. Juno Temple, who is in Ted Lasso, is outstanding. A new woman who plays a sheriff, Risha Morjani, is really good. And I think Jon Hamm is actually, I think, similar to Brad Pitt or Tom Cruise. I don't think he gets the accolades for his acting ability because he's just so damn handsome. I think he plays the character.

1:05:20He plays a really interesting character in this. Anyways, if you're looking for sort of a guilty pleasure, Fargo season five. All right. Well, I am going to do my win. It's very similar. The Holdovers. Alexander Payne, one of my favorite directors. It's a wonderful movie about people. Paul Giamatti's in it. There's a new young actor, and I'm blanking on his name. Just an amazing cast of four people that are left behind at a boarding school during Christmas break. And I love Alexander Payne. I love The Descendants. I like most of his movies. Such a heartfelt, kind, life-affirming movie. Just people that are difficult and unhappy and lonely.

1:06:02But it's such a wonderful – it's a wonderful – the spirit – you will love the spirit of it because it's about community. It's about connection. It's wonderful. I love Paul Giamatti so much. And I loved the one set in Napa Valley that he did. Sideways. Anyway, which is also Alexander Payne. Thomas Church. Thomas Hayden Church. Yes, that's right, is in that movie. So is Sandra Oh. I just love this movie. And again, Descendants is one of my favorite movies. And it had that kind of feeling to it, that very problematic and broken people who come together. And I just thought it was great. My fail is the, I think we've had enough with this university presidents.

1:06:44I think we should move along. None got fired. They said stupid things. The thirst for blood is repulsive. And I don't like it on either side. I really don't. I really, really, truly don't. And now it's showing your true colors for many of these people. It's all about the hunt. And I think people can learn. I think this, I thought particularly Claudine Gay, she may lose her job. The board is convening. She's been in her job for six months. Six months. She did a very clearly emotional apology. She got her mistake. Let's see what she can do. And the accusations from, again, Bill Ackman, who's proving himself to be a really unpleasant piece of work.

1:07:30saying that she isn't qualified. Well, guess how he got into Harvard? He's a legacy. So give me a break. Everyone gets a foot up, everybody. And so let's just move along. Let's move along. But they won't. They'll overplay their hand. And it's not because I'm being kind. It's just that there's no plus in it. They made a mistake, no question. Anyway, and it was stupid and wrong. So let's get back to a place where we all can talk. And that's why you should watch The Holdovers. And that's what that's about. Anyway, we want to hear from you. send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind.

1:08:03Go to nymag.com slash pivot to send a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Okay, Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Friday with more. Please read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Underthought engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Miel Silverio, and Gaddy McMahon. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can Subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. Again, that's nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

1:08:38Kara, have a great rest of the week. Oh, and happy birthday. God, you're old. Jesus Christ, you're old. My God. We're going to Denny's. It's a Grand Slam special.

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