Google’s Potential Break Up, Hurricane Conspiracies, and Guests Susanne Craig and Russ Buettner

24:29It wouldn't be hard. They could do it. They could figure it out in 30 days. Yeah, that's never going to pass. That's the thing. Exactly. Regulation, laws. It's a question of what they want to. They have to be made to. Sorry. Well, speaking of that, let's get to our first big story.

24:45The DOJ is considering breaking up Google after declaring Google's search business as an unlawful monopoly. The DOJ has released a proposal for limiting the company's dominance, including breaking the company up. Included in the proposal, the government is considering limiting the contracts Google can have to make search a default. Apple is what they're talking about. Requiring Google to let sites opt in to search engine inclusion while opting out of inclusion in Google's AI tools. Forcing Google to make certain information like data and ranking signals available to rivals. I thought that was interesting.

25:16And licensing or syndicating Google's ad feed separately from search results and requiring Google to provide certain performance information to advertisers. These all seem rather reasonable. I'm not sure about the second one. But talk about, does this list address monopoly problems adequately? And will any of it happen? Obviously, Google right now holds 90 % of the market share of search. Incredible. There used to be three. It was Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google. And Yahoo was ahead for many years. The judge on the case aims to rule on the proposed remedies by next August. And after a likely appeal from Google, the changes could take years, obviously.

25:55And Google is calling the recommendations radical. So I'd love to know what you think if this addresses it. I think these are pretty strong things. And what advice would you give Google what to do besides slow rolling it, as they have done for many years? Yeah, you're exactly right. It's slow roll. And what's interesting is if you really think about the impact that antitrust has had, it's the scrutiny that you're under during antitrust that actually creates, has the most tangible impact. because as you know, Microsoft was found guilty of monopoly abuse and the remedy was to, they were ordered to be broken up and then it was overturned over several years.

26:31This is years long. This will play out or not play out over several years. But even if it ends up being reversed, which I don't think it will be, even if they manage to slow ball it, it's good because Google will, or Alphabet will think twice before they think, oh, here's an emerging AI player. Let's force people not to install it on their, you know, Android phones or let's outspend them and put them out of business. So these things, it may take years. I was kind of hoping, I thought, I thought that there was a chance Alphabet might prophylactically spin YouTube because everybody talks about, oh my God, if you ask people who, who's the biggest streamer, they say Netflix and that commands about seven and a half percent share.

27:13YouTube is at 10%. YouTube is the number one streamer in the world. And it's really well run. And anyways, I would think that that would be the logical spin, that maybe they'd go to the DOJ and say, hey, what if we spun YouTube? Would that satisfy? And it doesn't look as if it would be. No, no, no. Because then there's an ad. This is the search one. There's also an ad case in Virginia. It just is. They've got to separate them. They just do. They have all the information. and they're ahead and even if they're lagging in AI, they have so much power. And so they really, I think forcing them to make information and data ranking signals to rivals is a great idea.

27:53I think licensing it separately is a great idea. I think limiting the default thing, they can buy their way into dominance. Like that's, they're not doing it because they're better. That's a more thoughtful answer, you're right. You know, I just, I don't know. These seem reasonable to me. and they're going to have to do at least, you know, three of four or two of four. And then they'll drag it out for as long as they can. But eventually they're going to have to do something. You're right, they should do it prophylactically. But this is a pattern for companies like Google. There's only a few of them, Amazon, Apple.

28:22You know, they all have to change their practices. Especially, it depends on, again, who wins. But I think a lot of politicians are much more hostile than they were before. And sometimes too much so, in a weird way. if someone has been calling for this. Well, this is a question looking for an answer, not just to make a point. But I can't think of another industry of this size, $300 billion, that has one player with a 90-plus percent share. Like, there's just, there isn't a market that this is big that has this sort of dominance. Their argument is that search, Amazon does search, you know, open AI, they have competitors.

29:01Yeah, we have competitors everywhere, one click away, yet they've managed to maintain 90 % of a$300 million market. Yeah, it's because they're so good. They haven't innovated at all. And there's been no innovation in Surge that's lasted. So it kind of is classic in lots of ways. I agree. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, the dangerous hurricane misinformation is also surging online. And we'll speak with friends of Pivot, Suzanne Craig and Russ Buettner. Their book is a chronicle of Donald Trump's lucky breaks and shady business practices.

29:50The War for Our World Begins in IMAX

30:03Only in theaters October 10th. Get tickets now. There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel. One big question I've got is why in 2025 are late night TV shows like Jimmy Kimmel's show still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times.

30:45This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now. That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

31:04Scott, we're back with our second big story. Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida on Wednesday night as Category 3 storm, a little less than they thought. It was coming in at 5, bringing wind, storm surge, and tornadoes still very devastating. Ahead of the storm hitting, President Biden called out Donald Trump for his onslaught of lies about recent hurricanes. Conspiracy theories and lies about the Hurricane Helene have been spreading for the last week, courtesy of Trump and the far right and also social media sites like X. Some of the claims of FEMA funding was given to migrants, the government purposely neglecting areas with GOP voters.

31:36And Marjorie Taylor Greene actually said weather can be controlled, presumably by Jewish space lasers again. Oh, you stole my joke. We're starting to become the same person. Sorry, I know we are. huge information it's really bad on X and Linda Yaccarina one of the more heinous executives to run across recently is saying stay safe stay on X do not stay on X if you want to stay safe just so you know Pete Buttigieg ended up calling Elon Musk to sort him out on some of this stuff you know he was being polite about it but spreading misinformation on this platform is really bad Biden and other government officials are doing what they can to debunk the nonsense sense.

32:16The White House started posting on Reddit, keep people informed about the hurricanes and combat misinformation. Meteorologists are also doing what they can to warn people about what's actually happening out there. Let's listen to a clip of NBC6 meteorologist John Morales getting emotional as he delivered an update on Hurricane Milton. This went hugely viral. It's just an incredible incredible incredible hurricane uh it has dropped

32:43it has dropped 50 millibars in 10 hours um i apologize this is just horrific wow he's the scott galloway meteorologist there i was gonna say that guy that guy yeah i know that guy cries is it a lighter shoe being dropped than me? I don't usually see people get emotional over weather, but. Yeah, well, I think he understands the devastation that could have happened and did happen, but not in the number that they were very worried about. So talk about the misinformation to me is, again, another moment where Trump doesn't pay for what is really inhumane on the massive level. Even Republican governors are like, shut the fuck up, dude.

33:28Like you're making it worse. Like, this is just lying and lying and lying. You can win by lying, really, pretty much. Well, this, I mean, what did he say? That FEMA ran out of money because they were giving money to migrants. And, you know, this is obvious. It's just a real, you always have a tendency, I think, as you get older to think things are getting worse. But I do think there's some legitimacy to the notion that in instances where there used to be bipartisan cooperation, misinformation, we now have people making it harder for FEMA to do their work because when they spread this type of misinformation, people believe them and don't call, don't go to the wrong place for resources, think they shouldn't leave.

34:08I mean, this costs time, energy, and maybe even costs lives, this type of misinformation. So it's, I just don't know what you do other than punish people hard and people will say, well, it's censorship. I'm like, no, if you're purposely spreading misinformation to try and sow division, and you knew you were purposely spreading misinformation and people get hurt, I think you should be under, you know, legal scrutiny for that. This is serious stuff. You don't spread misinformation that says, oh, the fire in the lobby is actually, we're not sure it's a fire, it's a conspiracy, and you know there's an actual fire in the lobby, and you confuse people as to what resources to access or what the correct escape route is, I think you're liable.

34:54And unfortunately, because of this Wild West mentality and this crazy bullshit notion that all even crime is speech, as long as it's on a digital platform, anything qualifies as speech and all speech should be protected. It's very, I know it's just incredibly disappointing. What I can't figure out is, do, and I haven't seen any data on this, do people go, okay, climate, let's be honest, folks, climate change is real. Well, government is important. I do think the majority of people in these states, despite the devastation, appreciate that the federal government and their local officials are putting aside or trying to put aside all the bullshit and are trying to get help to the people who need it.

35:39I do think that my impression of the response so far, and it's impossible to get it right in this type of chaos 100 % of the time, but my sense is they're doing their level best and that we pay a lot of money in taxes and that FEMA gets billions and billions of dollars and that government works. It does make sense that they are minimizing some of the devastation or the effects of the devastation. So I can't figure out if people are going to say, okay, we do need government. Climate change is a real thing. President Biden and thereby, ergo, Vice President Harris are doing a decent job and they get a benefit.

36:16Or if this misinformation is getting traction. In addition to that, the chaos, you know, whenever there's chaos, you just blame whoever's in power. You just hold them responsible. I can't figure out, do you have any gut or seen any data on if it hurts or helps one of the other candidates? Well, I think people are wondering about whether it have an impact on the election in terms of turnout and how people vote. North Carolina just passed emergency measures to ensure voters on impacted counties. Often rural ones can still vote on election day. You know, I don't know. I don't know. I think, I don't think people tend to, they may blame the government, but they don't blame the government, right?

36:53This is a storm. They understand that. I think the question is, why make people in a terrible situation feel worse or feel more under fear or that the government can't help them or that someone's out to fuck them? It's this, like, I am, I guess, heartened to see a Republican governor saying, this is bullshit, stop it. But they don't stop him, right? They don't stop him. And next year, when there's storms, they'll be with him on it because it worked if he wins, right? And so that's the repulsiveness of this is that it works on some level. And, you know, it's sort of like that, at long last, have you no sense of decency, right?

37:31That's the moment to me. I don't know. I think the person I was really irritated was Linda Iaccarina saying, you know, be on X, stay safe. I'm like, you fucking asshole. How dare you? How dare you, like, say, use this platform when it's being used for all kinds of nonsense? It's just not caring about that. I don't know how they sleep at night, these people. I honestly don't. And in this case, people need good information brought to them. And let me give a compliment. The Starlink things are really important for people getting good information. But if you put the Starlink up, they get the information, and then it's crap.

38:07I don't even understand the two things in the same place. Anyway, it's just disheartening. But he has, just to be fair, he has weighed in and tried to offer Starlink or make it available to people, right, in affected areas? Yes. Yes. I said that's great. But if you're beaming down crap, like, what is, why? Why? If you're doing this good thing, why would you let this other thing happen? Like, I don't even understand that. And Trump is altogether just another story, just really incredibly irresponsible. And it's so disheartening if it works. Anyway, speaking of which, speaking of Trump, let's bring in our friends of Pivot.

38:50Suzanne Craig and Russ Buettner are investigative reporters for The New York Times. That is underselling. They're amazing investigative reporters for The New York Times. They've written a new book based on a lot of their reporting they have published this year called Lucky Loser, How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success. Suzanne and Russ, welcome. Thanks for having us. Yeah, thanks for having us. This is exciting. So I went to your book event here in D.C. It was really interesting. But you've been reporting, for people who don't know, on Donald Trump's finances for years.

39:20But you go really in-depth in the book. Talk to us about what, obviously, Donald Trump's all about talking about money, but what does his financial history tell us about him as a businessman? Let's focus on that part. Yeah, I think that was our big interest in doing this book was to get to the bottom of that. We had done three longer stories in The Times that explored different windows, how much money he got from his father and how his business has performed in the 80s and 90s. And then, again, after the 2000s. 2000s. But stringing all that together is where you really kind of see the pattern.

39:55And I think what you notice is that he's very good at drawing attention to himself, at selling things when there's things that need to be sold. Often he's drawing attention to things he never does. That's one of the themes that runs through the book is he sort of builds up his reputation by saying he's going to do things that never happen. But operationally, he has difficulties. He never seems to be very careful about the finances of projects. So he regularly spends far more than what the projects bring in. He often says that. And then he needs money from other sources outside of his business operations to support those businesses.

40:31Right. So it's a bit of a Ponzi scheme is what it looks like. A little bit. You see his inheritance filling in the holes. And then later, the fortune from the apprentice really filling in a lot of holes as well and sort of sustaining this image that he's a powerful businessman when he's really having problems that he's hiding from public view. And Suzanne, talk a little bit about how you went about this reporting, because you've been doing this for a long time. Right. And like Russ said, we had a number of stories at the Times. There's kind of three big ones. We've been covering him since 2000.

40:59It's hard to believe we're coming up on nine years of this, but says every journalist, I think, covering this guy. And then we decided it after the 2020 story. It was a big story we had where we got decades of his corporate and personal tax returns. You know, we found out in that that he wasn't paying much income tax ever. We also got an incredible window into how much he'd made from The Apprentice. So we laid that out. And then Russ and I had a conversation and we realized we had a, I think, you know, we call it a skeleton for a book, but we really saw this as an epic American tale. And we wanted to tell it and we wanted to delve further into his father.

41:38We were really intrigued about his dad from the reporting we did, you know, while we were at the paper. And then we wanted to just learn more about Fred and see that impact that it had on his life and then re-explore Donald's life, because I think there's just a lot of misconceptions that were out there. Some of them were laid down by him early on and just repeated over and over and over. And so, you know, And we decided, Russ and I had a chat, and Russ took very heavy lifting on the writing, is a beautiful writer. And we worked together, and I did a lot of the reporting. So we just spent a couple of years just full at it every day trying to get this together.

42:16Talk about the role of the father, Donald Trump's father. This is Fred. Talk about his role and influence, because he was a pretty good business person. In this case, he was, as a, you know, as a, not a small-time developer, a pretty big-time developer in New York, which is a tough market. Yeah, I mean, it's an amazing arc to his career. He really was the self-created person, businessman that Donald Trump's always said that he was. And he started out just building like garages in the up and coming neighborhood in Queens where he grew up. And then over the course of the next like 40 years, he really benefited from some of the big programs, the government programs to solve the biggest crises of the 20th century.

42:55First, the Great Depression, then finding building housing for soldiers during World War II, building more housing for veterans when they got out. And then a couple of programs to sort of build up housing for middle income people later than that. And he built up this colossal empire of 10 to 20 ,000 sometimes apartments that were rentals. He never had one except for a couple outside of New York City that didn't make money. And so by the time Donald joins the company, Fred owns what would be during his lifetime a billion-dollar empire of rental apartments. It's kicking off tremendous amounts of cash.

43:29It has very little debt. And so Donald has this windfall behind him to do what he wants. And Fred, it's a really interesting relationship to us, and it's seminal to Donald's life. Fred really puts his full faith in Donald from that point. There were other siblings, two brothers, for various reasons. Fred, the older one, falls off the scale, doesn't get his father's trust, becomes an alcoholic, and dies very young, unfortunately. And the younger one never really seems to be taken seriously because Donald's already claimed the helm by then. And Fred never challenges Donald at all in anything he wants to do.

44:04And they're entirely different. As I said, Donald starts saying he's going to build things that he doesn't do. Donald's not paying attention to the bottom line. Donald's taking great risk, but it's not really with his money. But Fred throughout his life supports him, even as Donald starts to say, I'm way bigger than my father was, when he's only built like one building with other big partners. But it really seems to be a seminal relationship in his life. Right, right. I have to say, Carol, though, you do see it. And Russ talked about Fred and that era where he went into these larger projects. They came out of government programs, and Fred was seen at the time as taking advantage of them and exploiting loopholes.

44:44And, you know, there was an article in one of the Brooklyn papers that ultimately called him a pariah feeding off government largesse and gouging his tenants. So you see shades of sort of what the practices that Donald is accused of. Oh, not a good guy. Yeah, in some respects, but a great builder. So there's contradictions in there. Right, right. No, always a malevolent force. Scott, go ahead. Nice to meet you. So the data that I've seen is that from the 70s to the 90s, when his dad ultimately passed away, he inherited approximately$413 million. That's the number that sticks in my mind. And if that were invested in just an S &P index fund, it would be somewhere, depending on the returns worth today, somewhere between$10 and$20 billion.

45:26And it's very hard to nail down his actual net worth, but we know it's less than that. We know if he just stuck it in an index fund, he'd be worth more money. Which businesses have been the most successful and which have been the least successful that he's been engaged in since inheriting that money? I got to imagine the casinos and the golf courses have not paid off, but the apprentice was a big deal. What else has made and lost him money? It's a great question. I'm so happy that you remember that number because that was on a spreadsheet on my screen for about a year and a half. We were all coming up with numbers to get to that 413.

46:03And you're right. That's the way we've kind of looked at his wealth and his general success is that, you know, if he had just invested it and gone sailing, he'd probably be infinitely more wealthy than he is now. I mean, on The Apprentice, look, all he did was show up there. Mark Burnett, the producer, had made this deal with NBC that he would get half or he would get all of the product integration money. And it wasn't really product integration. Each show was a commercial for whoever sponsored it. And they didn't know, NBC didn't know at the time what that was going to be worth. It took about a year to get it going.

46:36But pretty soon, companies were paying$1,$2,$3,$4 million to be on each episode. and Burnett, in order to persuade Donald to join that effort, who he thought was really busy, promised to give him half of whatever that would raise. And so that became just a huge windfall in his life, about$200 million. And then there was a string of licensing deals that, as soon as he became famous, flowed from that. Early on, the year before, he had tried to get licensing deals and he had literally been laughed out of offices. As soon as the apprentice starts, they just start point in the door. Eventually, that goes bad.

47:10You see Trump University and all these developments that don't happen because he's not really doing due diligence. But still, over the course of the years of the apprentice, that generated another$200 million. But when you look at the businesses that he created in that window, we see a lot of alligators. The Chicago Tower, he secretly declared worthless on his tax returns while he's telling the world it's hugely successful. The retail part of that tower was built below grade, so there's no street traffic. It's been empty now for, I think, 15 years. His UK golf courses have continued to suck money and require influx of cash.

47:45The old post office, the same problem. He built that thing, and he spent too much on it. All his competitors knew he was spending too much on it. We saw in his tax returns, he was having to put$7 to$10 million a year into it, which we presume came from the easy money he was getting from the apprentice and from licensing deals. So golf has been a mixed bag. Real estate's been a mixed bag a little bit. 40 Wall Street, for example, has been up and down at different times. But overall, like the line that's stuck in my head on this is that the less involvement he has in designing and operating a business, the greater its chances of financial success.

48:23So talk a little bit, Suzanne, this idea of wealth and success, how he put this out as sort of using creative accounting, using various task codes and rules to his advantage, not something other people don't do. And he actually brags about it. Why shouldn't I take advantage of it? So can you talk a little bit about how he does that and creates these faux ideas that he's rich? He just says it, right? Well, I think that what a great, yeah, because there's, of course, the use of the tax code. But I think when I think about that question, when you first said it, I think about just this crazy image that he projects that's not backed up by reality.

48:59You look at one of the things I always remember about the book was when we got, or just the project, it was we got it before we started the book. We got 10 years of tax records from 1985 to 94. And in that was, of course, the year he wrote Art of the Deal. And we were thinking, well, there's maybe going to be some good news in there. That year, he's writing a book saying he's this master dealmaker and he He lost$45 million and changed that year. So behind the curtain, that's what's going on. And in that decade, we actually were able to find out because we got some anonymized taxpayer data through the National Archives in Washington.

49:36We were able to go in and compare his taxes for that decade to a huge number of other taxpayers. And in that year, it looked like he lost more money than any other single American taxpayer. But what he did, this is like the interesting part of how it started, is he was able to identify, I think really in the 80s. I mean, in the 70s, he was spinning the story that he was richer than he was. But then he fell in with not just the Larry Kings of the world where he was able to get on CNN and repeat it, but wealth porn sort of took off in the 80s. And you saw him on shows like Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous with Robin Leach.

50:14And he had the accoutrements of success. So he's flying around in his helicopter. He was on his yacht. He was losing a lot of money. We know that now from his taxes. But they loved him. And not a lot of really rich people wanted actually to be on that show because it's sort of tacky. But he was all in. And it perpetuated this idea that he was rich. And then he was getting on the rich lists and all that. I mean, it really did feed on itself. But he started in the early 70s by lying about his wealth, famously to the New York Times, saying he was worth a couple hundred million dollars. Actually, his dad was.

50:49And then it just rolled up and the number kept getting bigger and bigger. How did you get these records? We started out in 2016. Three pages of his 95 tax returns were famously mailed to me. Russ and I and other reporters worked really hard in a small amount of time to confirm that was a sort of big loss. But then we got a really significant amount of information from Mary Trump. And she's now come forward in her own book and said she was our source. But she really opened, I know you, it's just on Fred Trump. She had documents from Fred's world because of the litigation that she was involved with the family and stemmed about Fred.

51:33So that was really important to that 2018 story that looked at Fred's wealth and the tax fraud that went into it. And then we had another source come forward who had a transcript and another one that was from the 80s and then another source who provided us with decades of tax information. And he happened to have, obviously, a connection to the IRS. So lots of ways. Yeah, lots of different things. And then all the interviews and research that we did for the book, we spent another two years just kind of going at that. So there is a pattern, or my understanding is there is a pattern to generational wealth.

52:11And that is granddad, and it's usually a guy, is a baller, makes a ton of money, super impressive. And then the next generation loses a lot of it because they're under the impression that it's easy, they're reckless. They've grown up without guardrails. They haven't grown up with the requisite grit to watch every nickel. And they usually lose a lot of it. And then what's even, I think, more interesting or more surprising is the grandkids. the next generation oftentimes make a lot of it back because they look at how dad screwed up and how granddad was a baller and they take lessons and they make some of it back.

52:45Do you see any evidence that his, the next generation, his children are especially good or bad at business? If you had to guess in 20 or 30 years, are we going to be here talking about how they lost money or are they building it back? Because they're all in the family business. And I I understand you're not supposed to talk about kids, but they're public figures. Have they shown any business acumen? Scott, I feel like you know the answer to that question already. A little bit. Let's go. Let's go. Yeah. Look, I mean, what we've seen is I wouldn't follow that pattern at all, I would say. Certainly what you described between Fred and Donald, the original father and then the son, Fred was the famous anecdote about him as he used to walk around construction sites and pick up unused nails and give them to his carpenters so they could save a few pennies.

53:34Donald never displayed that kind of care for the bottom line and often sort of bragged about that. But with Don Jr. and Eric and Ivanka, Ivanka is out of the business now. And what you see with them during their era, they joined the company right as all these licensing deals are coming up. And their big role seems to be going to ribbon cuttings, putting their name on businesses that other people are running or owning. And they see, they call those things their jobs. But for the most part, they weren't really jobs. They were just appearance-based. It was just drawing attention with the name. And then the Chicago Tower is sort of their big effort.

54:09It was, looks like from everything we can see, a colossal business failure. And they've, Eric has focused on some golf courses, which is a tough business and not a highly profitable business. And it hasn't been for the Trumps. And Don Jr. really seems to have never found a sort of place in the sort of real estate center of it or the golf center of it. And now is off to a totally different thing. I think his entire life now is an extension of his father's campaigns. I'm betting I'm barren. And let's not forget crypto. We're trying to forget it, but we can't. You know, the people they're affiliated with are really questionable.

54:46So let's finish talking about that. But he nor J.D. Vance have released their information, which is astonishing that J.D. Vance hasn't, which is, I think, a pattern. He's just not going to release it ever, and he uses the excuse of an audit. But if he wins the election, and there's been so many instances of other countries investing in him, and he's doing deals all across the world, including in Russia, you found that his tax return suggests that he got financial boost from his presidency the last time. He's been during this campaign, he's been selling sneakers and Bibles made in China for three dollars and selling them for sixty dollars.

55:22He's currently facing major threats to his finance, including this this alleged audit and a multimillion dollar judgments for some of these court cases. He does have a stake in Trump media. We talk about it a lot. Those shares recently surged this week, but it's still below every peak. It shouldn't be worth anything at all, but it is because it's Donald Trump. So what happens if he wins the presidency and if he doesn't win the presidency? Each of you would love to answer that. Okay. I think if he wins, I think a lot of things sort of are potentially at bay. I think it's going to be hard to, you know, I don't know if they're going to be able to collect on that, for example, the New York Attorney General fine.

56:04And I think that that's going to really throw a wrench into things. I wanted people to know when we talk about him doing deals. Now, they're licensing deals. So you could see, I don't think if he doesn't win, I think those licensing deals become pretty tricky. Who's going to want to do business with him, right? So the one thing that he, even this world financial or there's world liberty financial, this crypto thing he's got going on. We don't know a lot about it, but it doesn't look like he has a stake in it. Neither do the kids. They're just in business with these kind of crazy, crazy guys. They sort of shifty, not crazy, but shifty folks.

56:39So I think that those licensing deals we're going to see are going to dry up. And if he doesn't get elected, that bill is going to come due on that fine by the New York Attorney General. It's going to go on appeal. But if it's upheld, he's going to have to write a check for that. The same with the judgment regarding Eugene Carroll. And I think it's going to be very difficult for them if he doesn't win. I think he's going to maybe just buy some time if he does win. But I think he's already been seeing a downsizing of the Trump organization. And that may continue either way. You know, they sold the old post office.

57:14They sold the golf course here up in New York. They've been selling some other assets. And I think that that has sort of been quietly going on in the background. Not a lot of people are talking about it. But I think you could also see that as he needs to raise money. for doing things. Russ? Yeah, I mean, I think Sue covered it pretty well there. I think the big, look, I think if he doesn't get reelected, the first question will be, will he still have some marketing value? Will there still be a MAGA? Right now, he's basing all these licensing deals on two things. Saudi Arabia seeming to want to be in business with him, to get money to him.

57:49Will that still continue if he's not in the White House? I think that's an open question. No, no is the answer to that, Russ. I think you're right. And you have to wonder the same about the Kushner deal, right, as well. Will he still seem like the best choice for a billion dollars? No again. Right. And then I think the secondary question is, so far, he's basically monetizing the MAGA movement. He's monetizing this idea that they're persecuted, that he's their only chance for success. Will he remain the leader of that movement? Will there be something there to monetize? That's the secondary question.

58:20That has not generated anywhere close to the licensing money that he was receiving like 10 years ago, which some years was$25 and$30 million a year. This is kind of small ball by comparison, but it's money. I think if he's not reelected, again, the judgment is going to be harder to escape than if he is. And I think either way, you're going to see problems at some of the properties continue. 40 Wall Street is not doing great. It's always been up and down for him. The golf courses in the UK have been money eaters. He's trying to develop the Dural Golf Course in Miami. Whether that will happen, whether he can put together the financing to make that happen, I think is very important to him being able to hang on to this assembly of golf courses.

59:03But the best thing he's got going right now is the thing, again, he doesn't run. He got pushed into this investment that's run by its two buildings, one in San Francisco, one in New York, that's run by Farnado Real Estate Investment trust. They're run very well. They kick off a lot of money. And that is still the source of most of his wealth in terms of real estate businesses. And that will continue either way, although he can't tap into that. He's just at the behest of the majority partner in that. And what will you two focus on if he becomes president? Where do you find the story?

59:38I don't know what the next thing is. I mean, we're going to, I think if he becomes, we keep reporting, I'm not quite sure aware, though. I mean, we're still looking at some stuff right now. I guess to be continued on that one. Yeah. I mean, I think we'd watch for the kind of things we're talking about, right? Saudi Arabia, it seems to all of us, is interested because he's going to be president. So if he is, will there be more of those kinds of things? And I think they've sort of acknowledged they're taking down the walls this time around. They're not going to be concerned about appearances, and he'll be a lame duck president from the first day.

1:00:08So I think it's safe to say they would probably be going after things that might look dicey to us. Right. There's going to be a lot going on behind the curtains, I think. In front of the curtains. I don't even care anymore. And in front. Yeah. Scott, last quick question. One of the things I really appreciate about your work is that you both really did the work. Reading through some of your work, I just can't imagine how much time you were in a conference room with bad coffee trying to string together tax filings and really connect the dots. Really do appreciate that you did the work. And also that the New York Times would support you or provide you with the resources to do that kind of in-depth work.

1:00:43My question is around Donald Trump media, 80 million shares, 23 bucks a share, whatever's that, 1.84 billion worth of value in those shares. My understanding is he hasn't sold any, and that would come up on a filing if he had sold them. But if I were him, I would be writing calls. I'd be doing prepaid variable forwards. I would be borrowing on margin like crazy to diversify. Do you have any sense of or any evidence around what he is doing to diversify, monetize those shares? But you left outrun by that well-known tech executive, Devin Nunes. But go ahead. Sorry. let me just tell you this podcast makes more money by far than than trump media but go ahead yeah i think in a story this is russ's favorite talk to call run russ run this is his favorite thing well i think in a story i compare their revenue does not compare favorably to a single chick-fil-a restaurant right there they're they really or a mcdonald's they're it's just not a real company store once yeah it's not a real company and they don't really have a business plan that makes sense.

1:01:56They're going to stream videos that are available for free elsewhere on their platform because their risk of being shut down. But to answer your question, Scott, I don't have any intelligence on other ways he might be trying to monetize those shares at this point. I think it's an excellent question. I don't know that there's any way to, certainly no public way to see that right now. But, you know, we'll be trying to watch out for that. And if you see any hint of it, please let us know. We may be sifting through court filings one day looking for what he's done. You will be. You absolutely will be.

1:02:28Also on the crypto, the sneakers, whatever you have. That's one of the great things here, so many court filings. Anyway, once again, the book is Lucky Loser, How Donald Trump Squandered His Father's Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success. I took it home. I read it. It's so good. I love accounting. I hate to tell you, but I love accounting. But this is a really great reporting accomplishment that you two have done. And I'm excited to see more, even though I'm not excited to see a grifter continue to grift. But you've done a great job. Thank you very much. Thank you. Nice to meet you. Thanks for your good work.

1:02:57Isn't that fascinating? I love reporters like that. They're such good reporters. Well, they really, if you read that initial article when they talked about taxes, it's like, okay, this, you know, this, for me, that article kind of spoke to the importance of, quite frankly, journalism that has some funding because it must have just, some editor, they came in and said, we can get through this, but to do an accurate job of this, It's going to take us months in a conference room with forensic accountants. And there just aren't many newspapers that have the resources to greenlight that. Yeah. Yeah.

1:03:31Great reporters. Great topic. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

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1:04:06Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. Well, just in light of, I have a real one, but in light of what our guest just talked about, I would bet we're going to find out. I wouldn't be surprised if we find out that the entire or a big part of the campaign or a big part of his wealth is, while Trump didn't sell any stock, I wouldn't be surprised if he is doing covered calls against his 80 million shares. to just give you a sense for that, that's when you essentially write a call against a share you own. And it's not risk-free because if you want to maintain your ownership in the stock, you essentially say, okay, the stock today is at$24.

1:04:51I can sell calls expiring next week at, say, $25 for$0.66. And if I own 80 million shares, I can get$60 million in premium. Now, if it skyrockets to 30, I either have to sell shares or buy them back at a loss. But just the kind of cash generation short term he can create from an ownership stake of 80 million shares in a volatile stock is just extraordinary. So be clear, just because he's not selling shares doesn't mean he's not taking risks and making a lot of money. And I'm very curious to see if and when it comes out what he was doing with those shares to try and monetize that stake or borrowing against it or what have you.

1:05:33Anyways, that's my prediction. My prediction is we are at a category three hurricane of misinformation. It's about to go in the next three weeks to categories five and six, increased social media activity, AI generated content that is super easy to spin up all sorts of misinformation, a polarized media environment. We're just going to see what's going on with FEMA right now is an Easter parade compared to the, or a dumpster fire compared to the nuclear mushroom cloud of deepfake videos. I think we're going to see videos of violence at polling stations that are deepfakes trying to suppress the turnout.

1:06:09It's just the platforms have done what I'll call a glancing kind of jazz hands attempt to do away with this. You know, Musk is all in on misinformation. He wants to let it rain free. It's going to go crazy the next three or four weeks. probably, I don't know if it's fair to say from both sides, but you're just going to see so many bad actors, so many bots. I mean, if you're trying to discredit somebody or create misinformation that suppresses turnout in certain swing states, certain districts that you think are leaning away that's against your interests, the ability to spin up accounts and misinformation using AI and then test it and see what is in fact going viral, what's creating the most confusion, the most polarization, it's just so, I don't call it easy, but the potential is so immense now that I just think you're going to see just 10 millibars of rain of misinformation.

1:07:08The first real, anyway, the prediction word salad here is we're about to see the first real serious externality of AI. And that is a level of misinformation and fake accounts creating polarization and confusion like we have never seen. And here's the thing, the day after the election, the platforms are going to feel really bad about what happened after the election. But get ready, folks, you know, there is a storm of misinformation coming over the next 20 days. Yeah, I would agree. I would agree. It's terrible what's happened. And I don't think these companies have learned a thing from last year, last election's presidential election cycle.

1:07:47In fact, I think what they've learned is to go and hide and not help our society have a better election. I think they have no response. They have they've decided no responsibility is the best thing to do. And it's and again, as usual, they you know, they meet my already low expectations of what they should do. Yeah. And as the Trump media stock, it is going up. It's up 50 percent now again because they think he's going to win again. It goes down when they don't think he's going to win. It was down at 13. It's up at 24, which is a lot. In the last month, I guess it's gone up 30 % in the last five days, close to 50%.

1:08:23It's gone from 46 % to 12 % back to 24%. I mean, it's just... Yes, 50%. Talk about volatile. I know. What a volatile stock. We'll see. We'll see what happens. In any case, it's not a business, just so you're aware. Whatever. It's an indicator of how people feel about him and his chance of being president. Anyway, it's still a bad business, even if he gets to be president. And you will lose your money, MAGA. Sorry. And he will take it from you. That is a really great prediction, Scott. And I unfortunately think it's already happening. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind.

1:08:55Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Okay, Scott, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot. Can you read us out? Today's show was produced by Larry Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie and her Todd, engineering this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Ms. Laverio. Yishak Kruwa is Fox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care.

1:09:29Have a great weekend.