Hurricane Helene Aftermath, Trump’s Federal Election Case, and OpenAI’s Valuation

23:51Look into the camera right now and say, Dax, I am so sorry. All right, hold on. Ready? Dax, I am so sorry. Boom! That's what you call relationship repair. Evolve man in touch with his feelings. Yeah, not really. You should text him. You're right over here. All right, okay. All right. Should we talk about Tesla? Should we talk about Tesla? No, no. I was just going to say, actually, he did. A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit accusing Tesla and Musk of defrauding shareholders. The suit was sent around Musk's claim that Tesla's autopilot and full self-driving technology could drive safer than humans.

24:27The judge said the claims amounted to corporate puffery. I don't care about Elon. What is corporate puffery? Exaggeration, bullshit, spin, whatever these companies. Should he get off for this? He was pretty insistent. You know what? at some point, constant puffery becomes like small case fraud. I don't know. When does it cross the line? But trying to predict when a technology is going to arrive, I can see him saying, look, I generally was hoping and thought it would arrive. The most interesting thing I think about Tesla right now is that we talk too much about Tesla. The auto company that it's gotten it right for the last two or three years, it's not Tesla, it's Toyota.

25:07Because the biggest thing in auto over the last two years is a recognition by the public that it's not about EVs, it's about hybrids. And EV sales were up single digits, and hybrid sales were up hugely double digits. And who did not get seduced by EVs, unlike Ford and General Motors, hoping to be more Tesla-like? Toyota. And Kia. Is that right? Kia has. I have a Kia hybrid. But basically, consumers are waking up to the fact, let me get this. I get the benefits of electric without the need for charge stations, and I get at a lower cost. It's called hybrids. I think hybrids are, quite frankly, the future of auto, not EVs.

25:51And the consumer is responding. People eventually get to EVs. I think it's one of these things that's going to go through that. But you're right. People are slowly moving that direction, and they will then feel more comfortable with EVs. I have a lot of people asking about EVs because I have one of these. Their sales are booming. And Toyota, I mean, just to give you a sense. You made fun of my Kia hybrid. I just want to know. Well, whatever. Just talk about your magic and pay for a Discover card and boom. No third marriage for you. Kia hybrid. Good. Sorrento. But get this, Toyota, which I believe is now growing faster than Tesla, has a price-earnings ratio of 9.

26:31Tesla is 72. I mean, price-to-sales, Toyota trades at 0.9 times sales. Tesla trades, depending on the numbers you're looking at, somewhere between 7 and 9 times sales. And they are making a better car that's more in tune with consumer demands right now, That foots better to how consumers want to interface with electric without the charging infrastructure nightmare. And it trades at a—one of these companies is under or overvalued. Yeah. So one of the things they're working on is vertical lift and takeoff stuff, too. Interesting. I see. Yeah, VTOLs. Yeah. VTOLs. They're involved in that, too. Anyway, they're a very smart company.

27:08But let's get to our first story.

27:14Voters are split 50-50 after Governor Tim Walz and Senator J.D. Vance faced off in a VP debate on Tuesday, according to a Politico poll. The two VP candidates discussed immigration, abortion, and other election tokens. People kind of liked it. They said it was civil and interesting. Although there were some moments during the conversation on immigration, moderators cut the mics of both candidates when Vance interrupted to say the hosts were not supposed to be fact-checking him per debate rules. He shouldn't have done that. He looked like an idiot. Another standout. No, he looked strong there, Kara.

27:43No, he did not. He looked dumb. Like, just answer the question. He was wrong. They said they weren't going to fact check, and that was fact checking. No, they didn't quite say that. They didn't. It was none necessary. They said at the beginning of the debate, we're not going to fact check, and they fact checked, and he called them out for it. No, lots of people didn't like that. Another standout moment. Vance refused to answer the question of whether he believes Trump lost the 2020 election. This was a weak point, which Waltz called a damning non-answer. But also, again, it was mostly more civil than presidential debates.

28:12A lot of people were noting on that. Let's listen to a moment during the closing remarks. Well, I've enjoyed tonight's debate, and I think there was a lot of commonality here. And I'm sympathetic to misspeaking on things, and I think I might have with the senator. Me too, man. Yeah, it was actually interesting. It sort of normalized J.D. Vance, who I think is a very dangerous character. But what are your overall takeaways? You go first. The biggest winner here was America. It demonstrated how our elected representatives are supposed to acquit themselves. They were respectful. They didn't interrupt each other a lot.

28:45I thought Margaret and Nora O'Donnell, Margaret Brennan, did a fantastic job. And it just made me feel better about being an American. And it contrasted the chaos and bullshit and childlike behavior that happens when Trump is in any room or in something like a debate. The next biggest winner was J.D. Vance. he came across as very intelligent, reasoned, thoughtful, his agility around. I mean, you got to keep in mind, he's playing with a much worse hand than Walls. Walls can say to him, hey, does your boss believe that Biden won the election? And Vance was able to say, well, okay, first off, Hillary Clinton didn't believe there was election.

29:30Give me some running room. he counters with Hillary Clinton did the same thing and censorship is worse. Okay, you're right. That is the mother of all false equivalences. Secretary Clinton showed up at the inauguration and she conceded, right? Censorship is fucking ridiculous. And this red herring, anyone who claims censorship won't shut the fuck up and has a top podcast and is everywhere. But I got to give it to the guy. He took chicken shit and made it mostly chicken salad. And given the hand he's been dealt, he did really well. I thought Walls started off shaky, got better. They both cemented their brand as Walls brand is likable.

30:13And he was very likable. And Vance's brand is intelligent. And he came off as very intelligent. And the big winner here, other than America, was Vance. Because quite frankly, coming out of this debate, Vance, in my view, is probably the top contender for the GOP nomination in 2028. I think you saw the future of the Republican Party. Yeah, I do. You know, he's a he lies a lot, just more deftly. I'm sorry. He just there's several lies he told. And that's not a good thing. Like, oh, so he managed to normalize his lies. And I don't know if that's a positive thing. He's certainly a serious contender.

30:50That is no question about that. And I think he acquits himself well. He's still a creepy person who has an issue with women. It's a real, which he didn't let out. He didn't show that, he didn't take the mask off on that thing. But some of his other comments are disturbing. If you go back in any interview, they're disturbing in the extreme. And so - We were talking about the debate. I agree with you. Yes. But the reason I'm saying it's disturbing is that he also is very good at masking himself as a normal person and he's not normal. And so - Doesn't every politician have to do that? Who the fuck would want to do this?

31:23When I look at some of these, you've got to go back and look at these interviews, Scott. They're disturbed. Nobody talks like this. No, I've seen them. And so I think he's able to normalize his very dark view of humanity in a way that, you know, I like. If he wasn't such a dark character, I would say this was a really nice civil thing and every politician lies. But he manages to take anything where there's false equivalency and try to really, he cannot miss a moment. of lying, like about something like he just can't admit anything very much. He can't say, yes, this is a problem. No, this is. And I would like our public officials to say I made a mistake or that.

32:07Yes, this was wrong. He he cannot do that as a person. What is he going to say? I hate my mother. And as a result, I'm a deep, dark misogynist and I'm supporting a guy who I generally think is the American Hitler. I mean, I agree with everything you said. He was very good. Yeah, he was. No, he is really good. I still don't think it matters in any way whatsoever. But I do think it sets him up for the future. That's for sure. It's already out of the news cycle. Yeah. You know what it was? It was mostly, it was a split decision. A split decision amongst the VP debate is pretty much a nothing burger.

32:40Right, exactly. So, and it doesn't really matter. But you do have to see who's going to, you know, as you say, the actuarial tables show that this guy might be president. So that's why we're paying attention to him, right? Because Donald Trump is old. And obviously, speaking of which, addled beyond belief, this last speech he gave. And finally, The Washington Post wrote about it. They wrote about it with Joe Biden all the time. Donald Trump, it wasn't just a crazy word salad that he usually is. There's something happening to him cognitively that is very, I don't know what it is, but it was really pronounced this past week.

33:15And he's either drugged or something has gone wrong. And it's not his usual cup of crazy. Anyway, nothing's gone wrong. It's called being 78. And with a history of Alzheimer's in your family. I kept thinking, what is happening to this guy's words? Anyway, and I think we should call it out because I called out for Biden. I think Donald Trump is cognitively stabled. So we have some. So this guy might be president. That's all I'm saying. That's why it matters. So we also have some new evidence. This is interesting. This just dropped last night in the 2020 election case against Donald Trump unsealed by a judge on Wednesday, revealed special counsel Jack Smith's outline of the former president's desperate attempts to overturn the 2020 election, which has been reported, but some of it was not, which was interesting.

33:58He kind of put it together in a timeline. Smith emphasized that Trump's scheme was a private criminal effort and that he's acting as a candidate, not a president. He needs to do that because of the Supreme Court decision that presidents have immunity for official acts, but not private acts. One of the things was when he was told about the danger to Mike Pence, He said, so what? And then another point he went by, aides kind of had it with his non-reaction. They left the dining room he was throwing ketchup in, and he started writing very dangerous tweets about Mike Pence that put him in direct danger.

34:32And this is when he was cogent. Do you think this matters that this came out? Do voters care? I think it's add to the list of things. Nobody cares that this guy's a criminal, I guess. If there's anything that is disqualifying here, it's January 6th and his behavior. I'm pretty sure you felt this way. When I saw this mob hunting down our elected representatives and I saw them cowering in the rafters in the rotunda, I thought it was arguably the most shameful day we've had. into maybe since the Japanese internment. I thought this is, we have lost so much moral authority. And I mean, it just was so, it was so deeply, I don't think of myself as someone who's, I don't know, like a student of the constitution.

35:19I found it so deeply rattling and that he's watching it like it's a sport and egging these people on. I thought, And it also gave me the impression I am totally out of touch with the American people and how much they either they're sycophantry can override their sense of justice and right or wrong or that things are so bad for so many Americans that they will accept this in exchange for someone they think is going to burn it all down. but that to me was absolutely the low point uh in america uh for the last i don't know 40 or 50 years and it just it just showed me i have no political instincts because i thought that's it i i thought he was going to be in prison and i thought for sure he'd be out of all public sight whatsoever and it's a toss-up right now for president i just don't get i have terrible political instincts.

36:12That's what it taught me. Yeah. I, you know, I do think over, you need to have this historical record, right? You need to have it said what he did so that even if they don't care, it doesn't matter. He did it. Like he said, so what? He sat in that dining room, you know, addled on whatever the fuck he takes, all the different things and ketchup and put someone in danger. This is a, this is someone who's a sociopath as far as I can tell. That's what I read it. I was sort of like, what is sociopathic behavior? And I think putting the timeline together, no matter what, will follow this man into his grave, right?

36:49This is this kind of stuff. He may not pay for himself. I think it's critically important that this is laid out. There's so much stuff he's done and others have done that have not like the stuff in Ukraine, the antics, you know, that Rudy Giuliani did. Why isn't Rudy Giuliani in jail for criminal acts, Right. And so I think that we'll follow these people to the ends of the earth to put it down. But I agree with you. I don't know if it matters. I think people everyone's like everything's baked in. And I'm like, that is a sick indictment of this country if everything is baked in and it doesn't matter what he does.

37:23But I thought it's worth reading this. I don't know if it'll matter or voters care or have already figured this out that he did this and and have decided they don't care. But and the ones that care, care. Right. And so we'll see where it goes. But I think it's important to lay it all out and to act like we're a nation of laws and not men. So we'll see. We'll see. And I think the Internet, speaking of we're not remembering the vice president debate, we're not remembering the assassination attempts. We're not remembering the like everything goes through in this fast moving way that that we've that it's just like it is like a television show.

37:59And you're like next on this thing. So maybe it'll be next, but it matters, I think. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. We haven't talked about it. And take a listener mail question about dating goals where you could make your jokes, Scott. Hmm.

38:34At Blinds.com, it's not just about window treatments. It's about you, your style, your space, your way. Whether you DIY or want the pros to handle it all, you'll have the confidence of knowing it's done right. From free expert design help to our 100 % satisfaction guarantee, everything we do is made to fit your life and your windows. Because at Blinds.com, the only thing we treat better than windows is you. Visit Blinds.com now for up to 40 % off select styles, plus a professional measure at no cost. Rules and restrictions apply. There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel.

39:08One big question I've got is why, in 2025, are late-night TV shows, like Jimmy Kimmel's show, still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. but what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for the New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now.

39:53That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

40:03Scott, we're back with our second big story, the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which is now the second deadliest hurricane of the century behind Katrina. Here's a look at the situation by numbers. Right now, there are at least 180 dead and 100 still missing. $160 billion of economic damage so far, according to AccuWeather. Tower communities have been destroyed. More than a million are still without power. Tens of thousands are without running water. The Biden administration has deployed over 5 ,000 National Guardsmen and 1 ,000 active duty troops. Biden visited the Carolinas Wednesday. Kamala Harris was in Georgia.

40:33Donald Trump visited Georgia earlier this week in his campaign, set up a GoFundMe account. All right, sure. Aside from the obvious political tragedy, I mean, obvious weather tragedy, this is a political situation. And not just because there are two swing states involved, North Carolina and Georgia. You know, Donald Trump quickly spread misinformation. What a surprise. He claimed that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp couldn't get in touch with Biden in the aftermath of the storm. Both Biden and Kemp disputed that. He also took credit for asking Elon Musk to get Starlink access to damaged areas. FEMA tweeted in response, this is already happening.

41:07Elon backed President Trump's version of events, but of course he would.

41:14And of course, Trump disaster response has usually been terrible. Talk a little bit about this from a political point of view, but also the devastation here And the photos are just disturbing in the extreme what's happening there. And people thought they were safe in certain parts of the country, like Asheville. They thought they were climate safe, and they certainly were not from these rising rivers. Any thoughts? Yeah, well, you touched on it. So if you believe in science and think that science is kind of the best ideas we have and maybe the closest to an actual truth, If, you know, the waters have heated up one degree centigrade, or I think it's about, what is that about?

41:55I don't know what that is in Fahrenheit. Anyways, they're getting warmer. And that spins up hurricanes faster and makes them more severe. And one of the outcomes of that severity is they're moving inland and affecting areas, including Asheville, that just aren't weather ready. When you're in Florida, whether it's hurricane windows, I mean, I don't want to say you're prepared, but you know eventually if you're living in Florida, you're going to have to deal with this. And you make preparations, whether it's insurance, whether it's, you know, the quality of your roof or whatever it is, or a generator.

42:24I spent a bunch of time and money thinking on alternative energy supplies if our power goes out. So this is just the fact that we politicize this and don't want to just look at the data is just going to create more and more severe weather events. And what you said really struck me, and it's true and tragic, is that Americans are very, or excuse me, humans are very adaptable. And we're just getting used to this shit, and we shouldn't be getting used to it. Now, on a political stage, we're talking about all this stuff that we like to control, the VP debate, the convention, the bump. So the three things or one of three things that will probably decide this election, given that it's in the margin of error right now, are one of three things or two of those three.

43:09And that is who is perceived as having the better response to Hurricane Helene? Helene, excuse me, to Hurricane Helene. Like if Biden and Harris can be seen down there with a FEMA jacket and looking strong and bringing people together, or if it's kind of George Bush's Katrina event where he just looks like an idiot having appointed his political buddies who just fucked up left and right. Yeah. Great job, Brownie. Remember that? Yeah, great. Brownie's doing an amazing job. And then two, the longshoremen strike. This is probably, I would argue, the one that might jump up and bite one or both of them in the ass.

43:49Because it feels to me awfully opportune that longshoremen have gone on strike. I do believe they deserve a raise. I think they're in a position of leverage, which I respect and appreciate. But if this thing starts costing the economy$5 billion a day, does Biden step in? Does he show strength? Does he show empathy? Is Trump able to make political hay? There's some rumors. Well, the head of the longshoreman is a... Is a Trumper. Trumper, yeah. But is that going to be good? Could that backfire? If Biden steps in and says, you know, fuck yourself, you're not going to fuck with the economy and forces everyone back to work.

44:23That is a big issue. And then the third wild card is what's happening in the Middle East, and that is Israel's response to Iran and who gets credit or non-credit for that. But I think one of those three issues or more than one of those three issues is going to determine the election at this point. So these are news events that matter, I guess, because everything else sails by in like a— You know, you have your plan and then God laughs. God is laughing at the presidential election with these three events. It's a toss-up. someone is going to get a lot of credit or a lot of blame for one or more in terms of their approach and how they address one or more of these three issues who actually was down there first jose andres with food credible he should be president honestly he brings world central kitchen was the first group down there over everybody um feeding people yeah what an organization what are your thoughts do you think that one of these you know i think i thought it It was, I don't know why Trump tried to politicize it right at the beginning.

45:19It was grotesque, but that's, you know, it's any other Tuesday with this Caffella. I, you know, I agree with you. I think this idea that, you know, it was interesting was people moved to Asheville. And I know a lot of, I love Asheville. It's a beautiful town. But they used to say, I'm moving here because it's a climate haven. They did. I've been there. And, you know, here's where it's safe, where it's going to be safe against climate change. You're not safe anywhere around climate change. You just are not. And the second part is like, to me, climate change is really going to be the interesting thing over the next couple of years.

45:52Because like I was just reading an interesting story about insurance rates now in California and Florida. They're not insuring. They just stopped insuring. And so some people have stopped doing insurance in these places or having insurance. Well, I can't get insurance where I have home. Right, you can't get it. That's the other thing, right? And so to me, that was an opportunity for, I hate to say this, Gavin Newsom and Rhonda Santis to get together and come up with something to self-insure or whatever. But it's certainly, there's all kinds of opportunities to come together in these things like Jose Andres and World Central Kitchen.

46:27He feeds everybody. He doesn't care who you vote for. Or it's an opportunity to split people up. I think people do respond to people who are going to bring people together and solve problems. And so I think people are desperate for problem solvers, not divisiveness. And so whoever does that best here finds a way to settle with this longshoreman who I think is just, I'll tell you why he offended me. He's like, my guys will do this. I'm like, they're not your fucking guys, right? You know what I mean? He does. I know Indian people talk like that. He's not in charge. He's not the king. He should try to find the best deal for the constituents he works for, right?

47:05But, of course, it's all cynical with this guy. And so if I were his constituents, I'd be pretty pissed that he's doing this. I think they've been offered a 52 % raise, but the WGA was able to extract 5 % for their riders. Right, yeah. He's already gotten 52%. He's rejected that deal and said, no, I want 77%. Well, it just— And he's going to—they're probably—you know what? They're within striking distance. I think they're probably going to solve this thing. Yeah, I hope so. I just find this guy offensive because of the way he taught. I was listening to him give a speech. But again, the ridiculous request that makes no sense is we want to put the technology back in the bottle.

47:41We want no automation. It's like, sorry, boss. No, forget it. Sorry, boss. You're going to take what everybody else is going to take. Anyway, well, you know. Let's see what AI says. Let's see what AI says. I can't wait to say that. I can't wait for you to do that. Can you tape it, please? Can you do that? No, it's going to be great. Please tape it with one of those jiggly cameras for us. Anyway, what's happening there? One of the things that is good and bad about the Internet is so many pictures coming through and it's devastating and people and stories and things like that. But there are some organizations you can check out that are providing help in states affected by Helene.

48:15World Central Kitchen, as I said, Jose Andres, what an amazing man he's become with this effort. Americares, Operation Airdrop, the Humane Society and many more. So please give if you can. They're really suffering there. Okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question.

48:39This question comes in via email. I'll read it. Hi, Kara and Scott. I work remotely and recently went through a breakup. Currently, I live in North Carolina, but I'm considering moving. As a 30-year-old ambitious man, I'm looking to maximize my dating prospects and increase my earning potential. Should I think about relocating closer to my company's headquarters in Florida to build stronger work relationships or should I challenge myself by moving to New York City and maybe a medium cost city like Austin or stay here where I can save more and leverage my six-figure salary to invest in the stock market in real estate.

49:08For context, I work in finance sales. I am a non-white straight male. Looking forward to your thought. Best, Andres. Oh, Andres. I hope you're in a safe part of North Carolina. What do you think, Scott? What do you think without making a dirty joke.

49:28Yeah, that's the last part. That's the hard part. Okay, Andres. So mating is like any other market and you want to go where there's more demand than supply for what you're offering. So let's just start with the basic. You're a male. There are certain cities, basically cities attract more women than men. And the reason why after my divorce, I immediately bought places in New York and South Beach is there are a lot more quality women than quality men. And so a five gets to date a seven. So by virtue of just moving to a city, most cities, especially the coastal cities, you have somewhat of an advantage.

50:04And in places like New York or Miami, it is champagne and cocaine for men. Talk to women about dating. Their misery in Miami and New York, quite frankly, is your disco. Now, having said that, what trumps all of this, what trumps all of this in your thirties is nothing increases your attractiveness and increases your potential selection set of mates than economic security. Women are attracted to men on for three reasons. Number three, reverse order, how kind they are. Women long-term want someone who's going to be good to them and to their family too. Intelligence. If you're smart, you're more likely to make good decisions for the tribe and make good decisions for the family and her kids will survive.

50:46And then number one, whether you like it or not, there's a ton of evidence, is your ability to signal resources. Women go through a period in their lives where they are bearing children and they need a guy with resources to ensure their kids survive. So what you want to be focused on in your 30s is killing it professionally. So get to headquarters because at headquarters, you will accelerate 30 to 40 % faster than someone who is not at headquarters. So take all the bullshit I said about cities out of the equation. In your 30s, You want to be sexy, no matter where you are, make a shit ton of money.

51:20You're going to make more money at headquarters. Yep. Okay, good. I would agree with you. I think living in North Carolina and being remote, it sounds like a very bad prescription for meeting anybody. I had a relative, I'm not going to go into it in detail, a younger relative who was living in Missouri. I advised him to get the hell to Atlanta, and he did, and he's married, and he's very happy. married now. I don't think, you know, if you're in a remote area by yourself as a young single person, especially a man in an area that doesn't have a lot of prospects, you're going to have any prospects.

51:57You're going to have a lot of money. You're going to have a lot of cash, but what are you going to do with it? You probably drink, drink, drink that money, you know, essentially and or do whatever. So I think you should move. It's like, don't everything shouldn't be a monetary decision. Lean into your advantage. That's right. And you'll if you make an if you make a six-figure salary, you'll be fine no matter where you are. And so, you know, and you're also happier with someone. There's, you know, honestly, there's just no question. Move, move, move, move. I don't know if you should move to headquarters or a cool city, but either way, you'll do well.

52:30I don't, you know, Scott and I are not all plus on remote work, even though both of us do it, interestingly, but we have established families already. I think later in your life, you could do remote work. When you're younger, don't do remote work. Get into the office or get into the whatever. Once you have money and relationships, remote work's an unlock. If you don't have a partner and you haven't made a lot of money, the office is a feature, not a benefit. Get into the office. Yeah, later you can leave and ignore people like we do. Anyway, Andres, thank you so much and good luck. Good luck. Tell us when you get married.

53:08Okay. If you've got a question of your own and you'd like answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot, submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions from you. I know you're in the prediction mode as the year ends.

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54:29Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. Do you have any predictions? Oh, hmm. I do. I had an interesting discussion with, you know, when you travel, you talk to people and you sort of start to hear their views and stuff like that. And I know all our focus is on the election right now. I think a lot of people are really leaning in and paying attention to the election. But I do think, I think there is a quiet group of women in this country, the way there was a quiet group of Trump supporters. And I am, maybe I'm wrong, but I'm convinced that the election will be not as close as people think it is.

55:08You know who agrees with it? I think she's going to win. Who? Bill Maher. Oh, does he? Interesting. He made a prediction. He said he thinks that Vice President Harris is not only going to win, but she's going to win decisively. I think it's going to be women. Women vote. I think there's a lot of focus on young men and what all they do. They never got to vote. They're lazy. They're lazy. And I think women are motivated. And every woman I talk to is doing something, whether it's raising money or whatever. um and uh and so i uh i really i don't know i just i could be really wrong but i think that trump's grip is a lot less strong than people think i think i think everything's just as everyone lets him get away with shit all his supporters i think everyone is has had enough he's got as many he's got a he's got a ceiling and he's reached it and that's my feeling anyway Anyway, it is, of course, about turnout and the turnout for the as much as Elon Musk is giving him money.

56:09I don't think they have as good a turnout as the Democrats. But we'll see. All right, Scott, do you have a prediction? I do. You inspired one. So I think we're about to undertake or we're beginning what I'd call the great rotation. And that is if since 2008, the capital flows, the market dynamics always trump individual performance. So you'd rather be a mediocre stock in America right now than a really good company and good stock in Argentina, because every year since 2008, capital flows have flown basically leaked out of everywhere and into the U.S. So such that the S &P trades at a higher P.E.

56:46than I think than any market in the world. And with the Chinese market actually ripping up last week, I think since the beginning of September, they're up more than 30%. I think the starting gun has been fired. And that is the U.S. market as a ratio of how it trades relative to other markets has not seen these highs since 1999 or 2007. and with Chinese stocks making a comeback with the stimulus announced with a bunch of people getting their greed glands going, ETFs have surged or capital flows into China have surged, but it's going to lift stocks in places like China, places like Brazil, and you're going to have a rotation back into kind of emerging or what you would call developing markets.

57:32And some, I think that markets outside of the U.S. are going to outperform the U.S. over the next three to five years. Oh, that's interesting. Oh, that's a good one. How did you just come up with that one on the top of your head? That was good. That was helpful. Good. I'm glad. Very helpful. It's a good prediction. That's why I'm here. How is your predictions deck going, by the way, speaking of predictions? When's that coming in? It's just so discouraging. Last year, I would loosely describe my predictions as wrong. I just shit the bed on everything. I got almost everything wrong. Oh, did you?

58:00I love when you talk about that, though. We'll go over that with your sitting event. Everything. Just literally everything. Was I right then? Would that be not necessary? I forget what you predicted. You have much better political instincts than me. That's correct. Most people realize that. My wife, Amanda's like, yeah, Scott was great on Beto. Oh, then he was. That's the only mean thing she says about your political position. It's really sad to me because there's only a one in four chance I'm going to get to see Amanda again according to these divorce statistics. Oh, stop it. What are we having?

58:30That's good. We're not getting a divorce. I am never getting a divorce. I just assume lesbians on a regular basis cry and hug for three hours and decide never to see each other again. Is that wrong? Is that wrong? No. You know what? I'm actually, you know, in general, not everybody for sure. But mostly lesbians get along with their exes. A lot of straights don't. Not you necessarily. You get along with, yeah, you get along with Megan. She's coming for Christmas. Yeah. No, it's great. My kids, my little kids love her. She's a lovely person. And, you know, there were issues, but I think we've done a nice job trying to really.

59:05I told you how I met your ex-wife, right? No. How? What? No. I was at a conference in Germany or something. I was speaking. I don't know. And I talked about Amazon. She came up to me and she's like, you are not giving Mackenzie Bezos enough credit for starting Amazon. And I look at her and I'm like, oh, do you have a background in technology? She's like, yeah. And I was the CTO of America. I'm like, oh, my God. Were you married to Kara Swisher? Anyways, your ex-wife. She didn't lead with that. She didn't lead with that. Your ex-wife came up and reprimanded me after my talk. She's good at that shit.

59:39She's a very, she's a real, someone who really supports women in technology. And that's her thing. If you said anything crossways, you'd have been like, she'd have come at you. No. She's a tall lady, right? She's tall. She's a big lady and everything. Nice, impressive woman. Yeah, she is. She is. She's great. Yeah, yeah. Come for Christmas at the Lesbians Who Get Along Club. Yeah, I'm not getting a divorce, okay? I'm going to South Africa. You are? Yeah. Oh, nice. Taking my sister for her 50th to Africa. No, we're going to San Francisco. And we're going to have a great time. Yeah, we always do.

1:00:10I win. I win on that one. Cape Town. No, we love it there. Cape Town over San Francisco. I win. No, no. We're not escaping. Have you been to Cape Town? Have you been to Cape Town? No, but we don't need to escape ourselves. Most beautiful city in the world. We like ourselves as we are. You mean explore the world while we still can? We don't need a beautiful, anyway, in any case. I'm going to come up for Christmas with you at some time. Anyway. I hate the holidays, just so you know. I hate the holidays. See, that's why you're escaping what I just said, exactly what I just said. Yeah, oh, God. In any case, Scott, we'll all have a Merry Christmas.

1:00:40I'm excited to hear your predictions for the year and, you know, your assessment of what you got wrong. Okay, that's the show. Before we go, we're up for the best co-host team in the Signal Awards. I don't know what that is. Really? I didn't know about that. Who are we up against? I'm marching to the competition. I don't know. Let's find out. But we deserve it. Vote for us at the link in the description. And again, Dax Shepard, I extend my apologies to you on Scott's behalf. You call me. Didn't mean it, Dax. Didn't mean it. You kind of meant it. I want to work out with that guy. That guy's ripped.

1:01:11No, he's not working out with you. He's definitely not working out with you. That guy's so ripped. Anyway, we'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot and I'm certain more news. Scott. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Christine Driscoll. Ernie and Todd Ench, you need this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mia Saverio. Mishak Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you're subscribed to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod.

1:01:42We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.

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