Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty, Democratic Wins, and Musk vs. Altman

16:06Rahm Emanuel:And he's talking about obliterating a civilization. You owe the troops a definition of why. You owe the servicemen and the country. You owe the servicemen, here's what victory will look like. So we have accomplished our goals, and here's how it's going to end, and this is how we know we have succeeded in one and two. None of that by the commander-in-chief has been accomplished. And so when you say to me— They have been declaring victory over and over in Carolina. But this is what I say. But step back. Underneath what you just said, you know, and everybody else in the world knows except for people at 1600 Pennsylvania, nobody believes our president.

16:44Rahm Emanuel:Now, this has been overused as an anecdote. when Stevenson goes to see De Gaulle during the Cuban Missile Crisis, he's about to take photos out. De Gaulle says, I have the word of the president of the United States. I don't need those photos. Nobody would do that here. Everybody is looking at our keystone cops at 1600 Pennsylvania. They know a president of the United States who literally truth is the most flexible thing he's ever seen. He doesn't believe in truth. He believes in spin. And so this is the degradation of the word, the credibility and the mantle of the president of the United States, and more importantly, the United States of America, because this is a baton that gets handed off.

17:23Rahm Emanuel:So at every level, not only did they start not knowing that they actually had accomplished something, they were too foolish and stupid and arrogant to know that. B, they go into a war without clear objectives. And then they literally talk about a victory here. Now, I have thought about, you know, there's two points I would make right now. Because they went into a war to obliterate, to degradate, whatever word you want to use, the nuclear capacity of Iran.

17:53Kara Swisher:They already had, even Tillis was like, we obliterated it, then we obliterated again, and then now we're going to obliterate it. He was even making fun of the language.

18:01Rahm Emanuel:Iran discovered they have a nuclear operation called the Strait of Hormuz. So first and foremost, declare a policy, either all ships get out or no ships get out. that would cut off Iran's economic lifeline to China, and would put pressure on both of them. Two, medium term. The United Nations International Maritime Group would run the Strait of Hermuz in the sense of a fee that would be split between Iran, Bahrain, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, all the countries affected. So they don't collect it. The United Nations and International Association does, and it's split because the war affected both parties, not one party.

18:43Rahm Emanuel:Third, and doesn't allow Iran to control the Strait Armors, which is an international body of water body. Long term, take the Abraham Accords, where the United States is a part of two, and do three things and use it, which doubles down on America as a permanent power in that part of the world, which is Iran's goal, which is to get us out, to build... pipelines for Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE, and other countries in that region out to the Strait of Hormuz, to the Red Sea, or to the Gulf of Oman. That would have a short-term, medium-term, long-term plan, and would also reinforce that the Abraham Accords the United States has is the vehicle for our Gulf allies and countries that don't become now subjugated to Iran's blackmail and coercion.

19:37Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, the big. To me, that is the most important. Now, I don't think, in fact, I can tell you this, since I haven't seen a single idea, except for the president says, well, Iran's 10 points are pretty good. I can't believe a president of the United States, a commander in chief, a leader of the free world, a person with a military instrument that he has, just said the other party, their term sheet is the term sheet we're going to work off of. Everybody in the quote of the art of the deal, you don't use the other side's term sheet.

20:08Kara Swisher:No, you do not.

20:08Rahm Emanuel:So at every level, I find this incredibly dangerous, reckless.

20:14Kara Swisher:Right. What's occurring here? Because his own people are like, he doesn't know. Like, what was really interesting about the New York Times piece is like they're all running for the hills because they're all telling him, wasn't me, wasn't me, it was him. They're pointing fingers at him directly or at Bibi Netanyahu, but they're certainly trying to say, I thought it was farcical. That's obviously from the head of the CIA. I thought it was wrong, Susie Wiles, et cetera, et cetera.

20:39Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, no, they're going to let one guy wear it. The guy with the dunce cap gets to keep the dunce cap at the end of this process. Here's what I would say to you is there are four tools in your national security toolbox, box, military power, economic statecraft, political persuasion, and cultural attraction. And you will assemble them differently in different parts of the world, in different areas, et cetera. Somewhere in the second term, now the president degraded the first three, but in the second term, as opposed to the first term, he's decided military power is not only the most important tool, the tool he's most comfortable, which was not true in the first term.

21:24Rahm Emanuel:He is degraded through tariffs. He's degraded through belittling our NATO allies and not consulting them and the brand of America from a cultural standpoint. So all three of the four tools have been totally drained of any capacity. And a person who was risk averse in the first term has now reduced America's national security to a single tool and made it the toolbox. And what is dangerous about that is obviously the servicemen and women are becoming literally a play toy for the commander in chief with no respect for what he's asking of them who have volunteered to serve the national interests of this country.

22:07Rahm Emanuel:And more importantly, the other tools are atrophying at this very time. And we economically, politically, cultures, you can see the way he's banging on a NATO, are more isolated than leading. You can't be a leader if nobody is following. That was the casualty here. Our NATO allies, our Gulf allies, and our Asian allies are not following the United States. They're distancing themselves.

22:35Kara Swisher:No, they're not. So what happens then in that case? What happens next? because his own people are distancing themselves. Also, speaking of leaders, all those leaks were fascinating.

22:46Rahm Emanuel:Well, watch what he does now. He's going to blame somebody. He's now going to, the next thing is who he tries to blame. And that's kind of a palace coup type, palace, you know, intrigue game. I'm into not that. And I understand the lore of that. My thing is, what do we do to take a generational approach to restore the trust, credibility, and the capacity of this country?

23:08Kara Swisher:How can we with him in the seat? He's in the seat.

23:11Rahm Emanuel:And this is my argument, both to Democrats, but also Republicans as a country. We're Americans. There's no reset button at the Resolute desk. I try to lay out a different scenario by different parts of the world. How do you assemble these different tools into different kind of stacking orders of priority? There's no reset. So when Prime Minister Carney in Canada says this is a rupture, you're not getting superglue and reassembling. We have to earn not only the trust, we have to build our strengths that have been atrophying. Where's the political power? Where's the cultural persuasion? How do we recreate the economic statecraft where, again, the American economy is central to the world, not sidelined?

23:56Rahm Emanuel:And I do think the last 25 years, when you look at this war, if you look at COVID, you look at different things that have happened in the last 25 years, this will be the era of supply chain and will be known as the era of supply chain. You took oil, take ammonia, take the petrochemicals of the region. You take what happened during COVID, medical gear, et cetera, and the pharmaceutical products to deal with the vaccines. This is the era of supply chains. Little things that hold the entire, whether it's the Strait of Hormuzes or whether it's the products coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, or whether it's medical supplies and vaccines, little things take the entire global economy to a halt and don't move it.

24:41Kara Swisher:A drone, a$50 ,000 drone.

24:42Rahm Emanuel:I mean, I said this the other day, and I'll just repeat this. You have two countries with no Navy, but they control both waterways, Ukraine and Iran, without a Navy. We have a theory in America, it's national security, being able to fight two wars simultaneously. We're going to have to rewrite it to be able to fight two different wars simultaneously, one conventional and one unconventional.

25:06Kara Swisher:That said, he's still president for a long time. Even, you know, you've got maybe to the midterms where he loses a lot of power or three more years. What happened? What from your, if you had to guess what happens next? Because they're not, these people look like they're not going to keep, you have Megyn Kelly saying, fuck you. You have people in the cabinet clearly leaking saying, not us. Something's got to give or does it? I mean, someone did stop Nixon, right? Someone walked up to Pennsylvania. Well, the Republicans did.

25:35Rahm Emanuel:I mean, yeah, I mean, I don't want to look. I didn't listen to the podcast with Senator Tillis. But, you know, this is a criticism. You were the key vote for Hegsteth becoming Secretary of Defense. I'm sorry. Like, you know, OK, you don't have to. But the fact is, you have a person with a drinking problem and other types of problems, who's now the head of a military, who's involved right now in a political purge of the military. The greatest turnaround in American history was the armed forces post-Vietnam. I've worked with the head of the Seventh Fleet, head of Indo-Paycom. These are incredible men and women.

26:16Rahm Emanuel:Amy and I, I just want to side note, we do an ROTC scholarship named after Lisa Franchetti, the former CNO of the Navy. She's in incredible capacity, fired out of political retribution. This is stuff you read in China. And Senator Tillis, who obviously has found his conscience, and that's good, but you confirmed this person that you knew in your gut was not right. Now, I want to say one thing. When I was chief of staff, I was an employee. When I was senior advisor to president, I was an employee. How many times have I walked into the Oval Office daily and said, No. And here's the consequence of you.

26:53Rahm Emanuel:You're a U.S. senator. You're independently elected. You're an independently elected congressman. You have your own voting card. You have your own pin for security. What are you doing?

27:01Kara Swisher:Do you imagine they'll do it? Or are they just waiting for the end?

27:04Rahm Emanuel:I think what's going to happen is the United States Congress is going to flip. The Senate's 50-50. And you're going to finally have the third branch of government that has been basically in deep freeze for the last two years. I said this once privately to a Republican Senate. But that's a couple months from now, right?

27:18Kara Swisher:Yes.

27:19Rahm Emanuel:I said this privately to a Republican senator. I said, you're going to want a Democratic president. He goes, oh, no, no. I said, yeah. The reason is you put your manhood in a lockbox and you're finally going to take it out in about three years from now. That's what's going to happen. You, I can't believe these individuals who know better and say it privately under cloaked voice. Of course. And what will happen is elections have, to quote my good friend and my former boss, President Obama, elections have consequences. Yes, we got X months till November. Republicans is in here. The hear the sound of the footbeat coming.

27:54Rahm Emanuel:You saw that in Wisconsin. You're going to see it in Indiana. Saw it in North Carolina the other day. You saw it in Georgia. And the fact is, you're going to have the third branch of government, co-equal branch, finally exert its responsibility and hold this administration accountable.

28:07Kara Swisher:You are so you are so you're saying it's just it's a matter of time. We're going to move on with this, but I would agree with you. They're suddenly appearing on my podcast. So, you know what I mean? And suddenly they're like, hey, hey, girl.

28:16Rahm Emanuel:I wanted, it's so frustrating. Take a look at the Senator of Louisiana. You confirmed a guy for Health and Human Services, Kennedy. You, as a doctor, you know was wrong. The president turns around, flips on you. And you try to do that to encourage favor or bring favor to yourself. And he's going to mess with your re-election. And you knew Kennedy was not right. Senator Tillis, I'm glad he's speaking up. I'm glad he found his voice. But when your vote was needed, you decided to go somewhere. Now, maybe you're making up for lost time, but the rest of us, most importantly, the men and women in uniform, have to deal with a Secretary of Defense who has never qualified for that job.

29:00Kara Swisher:And so now, therefore, do it again. I mean, he certainly did the, and I hate to use the term kill shot, but he did, he did. And some people are like, it's too late. I'm like, but he did it. So he has to keep doing it, is what you're saying. People like that. Yes. Yeah.

29:12Rahm Emanuel:Yes, and you have to not only have to say that, you have to work with others to finally get your vote and your voice to get aligned. Your vote would not wear your voices or your conscience.

29:23Kara Swisher:Yeah, reach down and grab it. Anyway, OK, Rom, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Democrats keep the momentum going with another string of election wins.

29:35Kara Swisher:Support for this show comes from the 2027 Chevy Bolt. As you all know from listening to me, I love my Chevy Bolt. It's one of my favorite things. I almost like it as much as my kids. Anyway, that's right. The Chevy Bolt is back and better than ever. Now with 2.5 times faster charging with DC public fast charging that goes from 10 % to 80 % in just 25 minutes. I've been riding around in the Bolt for years. And again, I have to say, I love it. I don't know why I love it so much. It's just, it's a happy car. Some of you at times, you have sad cars, happy cars. I've had the cars for a couple of years.

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31:47Kara Swisher:For the last 10 years, everything in American politics has basically revolved around one man. And as a political journalist who came of age during Donald Trump's rise in 2016, I've had a front row seat. I am officially running for president of the United States. It's going to be only America first.

32:10Rahm Emanuel:America first.

32:12Kara Swisher:Thousands of supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol building. But is it possible to talk about politics without talking about Donald Trump? That's the question I'm going to ask in our new show from Vox. The idea of like a post-Trump or not exactly Trump-focused show can exist because he's not really driving any agenda items. It really does feel like so reactive.

32:32Rahm Emanuel:You know, I think this Iran thing is also going to cause a big split in the GOP. So far, it doesn't among like people who say they're MAGA voters are still with Trump.

32:41Kara Swisher:But like for the first time, you see on a major issue, open opposition from the start of this war. I'm Estet Herndon and welcome to America Actually.

32:56Kara Swisher:Rom, we're back. Democrats notched their biggest shift yet in the House special election, dramatically narrowing the gap in Georgia's 14th. Trump carried the district by 37 points in 2024, but even in a race, the margin shrank to around 12 points, a major swing, even though the Republicans took the win. Democrats also expanded their majority on Wisconsin's Supreme Court, very significant from four to three to five to two. And that'll last for a decade, I think, for something like that or a very long time. You recently wrote a piece in The Wall Street Journal titled How Democrats Can Use Their Coming Majority.

33:24Kara Swisher:You say investigations of Trump won't satisfy voters, that energy we better spent on a positive agenda. You and I have talked about this. Talk about, you know, your ideal plan. You just sort of vaguely mentioned it up to the midterms and assuming they have a strong showing without any nonsense from Trump or any hijinks or whatever he's trying to do. But it doesn't seem like it's going to work. In recent days, over 70 lawmakers have said Trump's cabinet needs to invoke the 25th Amendment. He's supposed to be in a coma, apparently, for that. But we'll see. I don't see them doing that. They can hardly speak up in any way.

34:00Kara Swisher:Talk about the distraction of it, because one of the things is if you spend all your time investigating and certain people, by the way, should be investigated for corruption. Christine Noem, Corey Lewandowski, et cetera.

34:11Rahm Emanuel:As I said in that piece, I said there's a difference between corruption and dishonesty. Right. I'm for absolute investigation of all the corruption. This is crony capitalism run amok. People trading on inside information, they have normalized corruption 100 percent for that. But you cross the line when it's all about retribution, vindication, and not addressing what I think is not only the affirmative agenda, but I do believe their corruption. I've said it two years ago. That's the backdrop. So I'm 100 % for what did Christy Noem do at DHS? I'm 100 % for everything the inspector generals have reported and all the type of corruption, both inside, outside, members of families.

34:57Rahm Emanuel:More the Trump kids. A hundred percent for that. Don't get caught in a game of politics or retribution where then the people go, it's just more Washington. Now, I think on the affirmative, and this was part of that piece, if you go back to the presidentials of both President Clinton and President Obama, first terms, 08 and 1992, what George Mitchell does in 1990, forcing President Bush to raise taxes and break his pledge on Read My Lips, And what we did in forcing Bush to veto the Children's Health Insurance Initiative in 2007 sets up 1992 Bill Clinton and sets up President Obama 2008. 2008. 2027, I look at the kind of landscape of all the issues from minimum wage to predictive markets to healthcare cost control and or a ratepayers bill of rights.

35:57Rahm Emanuel:I lay out a number of ideas in that piece. Now, part of this politically is determining when you have the Senate or not is get a bill on the desk that, one, creates divisions within the Republican Party, and two, either force the president, like Bush does in 1990, signs a bill, or vetoes a bill, like President Bush does in 2007 on the Children's Health Insurance Program, that creates divisions inside the Republican Party and advance your agenda that you're ready to take and secure the future. So I do think, let's just fast forward, Democrats win both the House and the Senate. What they do in 2027 will be as determinative as who we nominate in 2028.

36:47Rahm Emanuel:My view, this is mine, is go to those predictive markets and put a piece of bill legislation on the president's desk that ban all members, Congress, Senate, executive branch, judicial branch, staff, family, from participating in the predictive markets. And that there's a division of the criminal justice department.

37:10Kara Swisher:The Calche's and Polly markets, right?

37:12Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, and the reason is, and first of all, all that can be done by executive board. The president will not do it because his two sons are investors in it. And you drive right there because the Republicans are there, independent voters are there, the president of the United States is not there, and I would take that bill and run it right down through one end of Pennsylvania Avenue to the other and put it on his desk. Because everybody, and I can tell you this from La Crosse, Wisconsin, to Franklin, New Hampshire, to Abbeville's partner, everybody in their gut knows that these prediction markets are being played and manipulated with inside information.

37:47Rahm Emanuel:And yes, and people, other people are putting their lives at risk while a little netball babies in Palm Beach are making money. Most importantly, Don Jr. and the rest of the family and Lutnick's kids and Wyckoff's kids. Put it on his desk. Make him pick his wealth or the American people's democracy and political and economic.

38:07Kara Swisher:I already know the answer to that.

38:09Rahm Emanuel:And that's what I mean, you ask me, that's what I would do because he's going to veto it.

38:13Kara Swisher:You were talking about things that you wish would happen probably won't pass. You should do like like twenty five dollar minimum wage, whatever it happens to be, it doesn't have to win. You just have to make a stance is what you're talking about, right?

38:26Rahm Emanuel:Well, in 1990, President Bush signs the bill and actually does help reduce the deficit, but it creates Pat Buchanan and a Republican revolt. And 20 Republican senators support that, but the other 25 do not. In 2007, when we do the Children's Health Insurance Bill, President Bush 43 vetoes it, but 60 Republicans in the House and Senate align themselves with Democrats. What brings us together? What divides the other side? And whether it's signing or vetoing, as I would say to quote that great philosopher, when you get to a fork in the road, take it. And that's what you want to do to the Republicans.

39:10Kara Swisher:Right, and you want to constantly be saying what you're for. And that says what you're for. And even if you fail, right?

39:15Rahm Emanuel:It says what you're for, who you're going to fight for, and what the other side is willing to do. And I think this president is running a crony capitalist system. It's from everywhere. It's how much you pay and how much he gets. And what you want to do is drive your car right to that division point inside the Republican Party. And the Republicans know they're not in on this prediction market and assessment financial gain the way the Trump kids are. And the president, and I would also talk to him, sign an executive order.

39:49Kara Swisher:Yeah. Do something like that.

39:51Rahm Emanuel:Go for it, Mr. President. You've signed all these other executive orders that are meaningless. Here's one that you can do. And he won't do it. And so drive right there.

39:57Kara Swisher:What do you make of these shifts in the Democrats have done rather well all over the place, right? Even including in Palm Beach. Speaking of Palm Beach, they now have a Democrat.

40:06Rahm Emanuel:I actually think one thing that slightly didn't get the coverage. I mean, I went up to Wisconsin six weeks ago for the Supreme Court and for Rebecca Cook in the third district, southwest corner. In Wisconsin, battleground state. First of all, the Supreme Court candidate does better than any of the other two from a year ago. There were Democrats in Wisconsin win the important county outside of Milwaukee. That's the Republican base that counters the Milwaukee vote. We now have the county execaries. The Supreme Court nominee in the third congressional district, the southwest corner, where La Crosse is, etc., that Ron Kind used to represent and is a Republican there, that Trump won.

40:48Rahm Emanuel:The Supreme Court, not Democratic, but the progressive candidate, takes 57%. Donald Trump won that with overwhelming amount. That tells you if you win that seat, you're winning the majority. So when you look at Wisconsin at the top, all the way down, and all the races between, it's an unbelievable victory. And it says the same thing that you're seeing.

41:15Kara Swisher:It's the independence.

41:16Rahm Emanuel:Massive energy in the Democratic vote base and Republican turnout depressed. impressed the two of the election in North Carolina when Donald Trump uh endorsed the state senate majority leader the most powerful Republican and he loses the Republican primary that was more important than Mar-a-Lago I get the value of Mar-a-Lago president yeah I get it but the fact that he doesn't have power over the Republican primary voters? You want to call Liberation Day? That's Liberation Day. So all you Republican congressmen and senators, Senator Tillis, that you were scared of your shadow for the last four years ago?

41:58Rahm Emanuel:You don't have to be scared of your shadow.

42:00Kara Swisher:What about Texas, obviously? Well, let me see.

42:03Rahm Emanuel:Now, in the Senate in Texas, I think that you have a Republican primary that ends up, it doesn't matter who wins in one level, they're going to both be a weakened candidate for the general election. That's what I think. One thing I would also say to my fellow Democrats, when you look at the health care for President Obama for the IRA, the climate bill under President Biden, under the health care bill, Senator Nelson from Nebraska go, helps us pass that. It's the 60th vote. And the senator from West Virginia helps pass the IRA. If you don't win in purple to red states as a Democrat, we're not going to get the type of economic and political and social legislation we want.

42:59Rahm Emanuel:The two most significant pieces of legislation Democrats passed in the last 20 years, they clinched the vote. with a senator from a state that is not, quote unquote, safe blue. So winning in Ohio, winning in North Carolina, winning in Texas, winning in Iowa, winning in places Democrats have not presidentially won is how you secure the type of legislation and the majority you need.

43:26Kara Swisher:Yeah, I think it's really interesting. And I just met Tallarico. I call him the baby Jesus. Anyway, one of the things, of course, look, Democrats are not slathering themselves in perfection. And right now, Trump waded into the California governor's race this week by endorsing former Fox News host Steve Hilton, who I know very well, actually, mostly as a husband of someone I know very well, but I actually know Steve. My favorite Steve thing is he was lecturing me on populism and the elites when he was staying at the Bel Air Hotel. And I was like, I can't afford this fucking place, my friend. And you're telling me about elites.

44:02Kara Swisher:Anyway, he's a funny guy, actually. There might be good news for Democrats. the Trump backing there. But Democrats have been worrying about a doomsday scenario with the state's jungle primary. And people don't know, there's not primaries. It's who the top two are. If the two GOP candidates, Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco, and exactly what he sounds like, first and second in the primary, Democrats will be locked out in the general election. It's a concern. And there's eight Democrats in the race with no clear front runner. But by consolidating support behind Hilton, Trump may have helped reduce the chances.

44:37Kara Swisher:And I've noticed both Jane Fonda and Ro Khan are backing the billionaire, which is unusual, Tom Steyer, which is fine. Like all the left went crazy, but I'm like, well, he's different. He's not like, he's not Mark Zuckerberg, let me just be clear. But that said, there's all kinds of issues there with what's happening there. And you've got you know, a number of candidates, they each have a little chunk. It's not like one has the biggest chunk. So I'm sitting there, I'm like, where's Nancy Pelosi hitting heads? Or where's Newsom? Or what's what is happening there? And you I'm sure you've spoken to them.

45:15Kara Swisher:If you're running the Democratic Party.

45:17Rahm Emanuel:What's happening in the Democratic Party? Yes. What has to happen there

45:20Kara Swisher:in order to like knock people out? They don't seem to be leaving any of them. It looks like.

45:25Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, I don't, you know, California is not Chicago.

45:30Kara Swisher:Right, right.

45:31Rahm Emanuel:We would find something wrong with their signatures and knock them out that way. Right, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, you're not getting on the ballot on this one. You want another race? That's it. But, you know, I don't, you know, I have no idea. I think the leadership of the party has stood back. Part of me wonders whether Kamala Harris thinks again, like, maybe I made a mistake. I should have gone for that office, et cetera, given when you look at the field. I think this is a jump ball. You got to, I look at it from a distance, but about four candidates all kind of hovering within two points from each other.

46:04Rahm Emanuel:And so my guess is the leadership of the party doesn't want to put their thumb on the scale, prefer looking like they don't have the leadership that they thought they did.

46:11Kara Swisher:So what happens? It could be, is that a bad thing for?

46:15Rahm Emanuel:You know, I do buy the conventional wisdom that the president's endorsement of Mr. Hilton is a kiss of death. And I think that will bear out. And what happens, eventually there's a coalescing. That trigger hasn't happened yet, but I instinctually believe it will happen. Well, how the papers endorse, something will happen that will be a conversion, that will convert the moment. It'll be a catalytic conversion of the moment. And then there'll be a coalescing around a singular or two candidates that catapult to the front of the class. Right now, they're kind of bunched together.

47:00Kara Swisher:Possibly. It's really interesting. Do you remember the movie Face Off where they're all pointing guns at each other? That's what it feels like. Someone's got to put the gun down, you know, and then the pigeons fly.

47:09Rahm Emanuel:It's a little early for that, but you'll get that.

47:11Kara Swisher:You'll get that. Is there any candidate you think will emerge of all of those candidates?

47:16Rahm Emanuel:I'm not close enough to that race. I mean, in the back of my head, it will be a Democrat. And 90 % of them agree on the same thing, so it won't matter. Now, obviously, this is electoral politics, so it could be totally wrong. But so far, I believe that there will be a coalescing at the very end, at least around one, if not two candidates, and the rest will really be seen as a wasted vote. The one good news is the president's endorsement is going to force the Democrats to kind of shape up real quickly.

47:52Kara Swisher:Shape up real quickly. Yeah, interesting. It's a real wrinkle. I think Steve is like, are you kidding me?

47:57Rahm Emanuel:I mean, my thing is, look, take Iowa and take Ohio and then take Florida and Georgia. And I'll tell you why on those is Ohio, the Democratic nominee for governor, which was in Governor DeWine's public health official. She's ahead. In Iowa, you have an open Senate, also an open governor. and the state auditor in Iowa is in a very strong position, been elected twice already statewide for the governor's race, and we're going to have a pretty competitive nominee, I think, for the Senate. And I think what's happening because of what the president did to the rural economy, the corn, soybean, wheat farmers.

48:41Kara Swisher:They're going out of business.

48:41Rahm Emanuel:And they're going out of business. The rural economy is really hurting. This war has really touched them about fertilizers, et cetera. Tariffs. You're going to see something in the Midwest, in the prairie states, that's going to come and bite the Republicans where they need to be bitten and kicked in. Then you go down to Georgia and Florida. In both cases, in the Democratic primary are former Republican elected officials who decided the Republican Party under Donald Trump is not their home anymore. The Democrats are. Whether they get out of the primary or not, I'm not sure. But there is a 10 to 12 percent of Republicans.

49:16and I've also seen this going all over the country, who don't identify with Donald Trump,

49:24Rahm Emanuel:not sure about the Democrats. They say way too left for them culturally, politically, economically. But you have a fraction of what I call traditional Republicans that rather than I look at this election or the future elections as transactional, we should look at it as transformational. they have chosen those two candidates in Florida and Georgia to see themselves in their future politically more at home with the Democratic Party than Republicans.

49:56Kara Swisher:At least for now. That tells you the beginning.

49:58Rahm Emanuel:Well, that is the first steps towards a realignment of coalitions. And we as a party have to look at these elections. And I'll give you one analysis. In 2020, you had what I call Joe Biden Republicans. And the real question was, are we going to govern with the idea of making that transformational or transactional? And one of the mistakes I think made in the Biden administration was rather than try to unite the country, a lot of time was spent trying to unite the party. And we lost a bigger narrative in that process. Right.

50:30Kara Swisher:That's a very fair point. I'm going to move on to some business stuff. Lots going on in this area of AI. something that you've written about a lot, and you and I have talked about social media and everything else. Now, in this case, Elon Musk wants to have OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and President Greg Brockman removed from the company as part of a case claiming the company deceived him to donating$38 million. I was there when that happened, actually. Meanwhile, OpenAI sent a letter to the California and Delaware AGs alleging Musk has been working to undermine OpenAI through various attacks, including by working with Mark Zuckerberg.

51:00I mean, this is true.

51:02Kara Swisher:Surge, jury selection begins in this high-profile trial where the tech is sort of eating each other. Like, it's a really interesting time. And while we're talking about AI, hopefulness among AI among young people has dropped to 18 % from 27 % last year. You're welcome at tech. I'm glad to help do that. Almost a third of young adults say AI made them feel angry. And speaking of Elon, shortly after he filed his SpaceX IPO last week, speculation is growing about a merger with Tesla. I've been saying this would happen. Let's listen to a clip from last April. It looks like he's not interested in making cars anymore, or he's making other things.

51:38Kara Swisher:He wants to shift Tesla. And I think you're going to merge XAI, X, and this together in a big... And Tesla? Yeah. Yeah, I had already predicted that he would put Twitter into Grok, and then they would put it into SpaceX. And it made sense for a lot of things. There's a whole new meaning of roll-up. Yeah, and actually there's a story in Reuters are going to possibly make a cheaper EV, which he should have done four years ago, but that's another issue. That's the only answer for Tesla, given how the numbers are declining. He has to either have a great car, which he's not seemingly interested in, a really great car that sort of wins everything, or he has to merge them all together.

52:17Kara Swisher:And then he can hide the losses pretty easily in this spectacular IPO that's going to happen with SpaceX. So, which is hugely overvalued, but that's all right. People are going to buy into it. So talk a little bit about what's happening here in AI, because there's a whole shift of people not trusting these people. You know, it's sort of like a pox on all their houses. Which side do you want to pick? Altman or Musk or these people or David Sachs, who's like pushing the president, even as the numbers are declining?

52:45Rahm Emanuel:I think there's three categories that I kind of take back from this week. One is the tech bros all basically urinating on each other's leg but telling you the other guy it's raining outside. And Americans aren't going to stand for sit on the sidelines, literally. while Altman and Dario and Elon Musk all play and fight with each other like little kids in the sandbox with adult supervision. The second is both open AI and Anthropic withhold product because it's too risky. Dangerous, right.

53:20Kara Swisher:I was going to mention that too. These are new products that they have coming that they're worried about security issues. And now they brought a coalition together to try to patch things, but quite dangerous. But go ahead.

53:31Rahm Emanuel:And then the third thing, which is whether, forget the motivation, Sam Altman puts out a kind of updated AI New Deal social contract to compete in my, again, I shouldn't do that because I said don't put aside the motivation. with Dario owns view which is this is going to be so disruptive we have to figure out not only the product and the industry but also how we include the American people in this so it's a net win rather than three guys winning 333 million lose those three boxes they're all overlapping now I step back also as a former mayor and chief of staff to a president in massive changing times.

54:23The government is set up to kind of set up a regulation,

54:27Rahm Emanuel:wait 30 years to see if it were, which is an industrial model. And you're in the post-analog, post-digital into something totally different. And I do think when you look at Dario and OpenAI deciding not to put a product out, forget the boys acting like boys. they are begging for oversight and rules, and they're making it up as they go. The government needs industry leaders, academics, and economists in real time to be making decisions in real way. We can't rely on two CEOs' social conscience to say, I'm withholding a product because it's dangerous. While I appreciate that they did that, that is not how this is going to work.

55:17Rahm Emanuel:So we're going to have to have a board that is required to update its rules and regs and oversight in real time with an industry that's changing at a pace the government's not used to. There's going to have to be principles that guide it. Now, is the threat from China real? 100 % it's real from a competitive standpoint, which I find one side note. We're a country with a lot of social, whether you think it should be expanded, social insurance. Our country is fearful from AI. China has none of the social infrastructure underneath it. So if you fail to get support, healthcare, unemployment, et cetera, and yet they're hugely optimistic about AI.

56:00Rahm Emanuel:The countries are in different places given the support that the public sector, and I find that just as a student of politics.

56:06Kara Swisher:Well, they do a lot more monitoring of it. The government does much more monitoring than we do. Good and bad.

56:12Rahm Emanuel:Well, there's a confidence that somebody's going to control and that you're not going to be left out on the sideline. So to me, we're going to have to have a real, and I do think this, regardless of whatever my personal thing, the two, this is Sam Altman's kind of social contract, Dario's view that, for Anthropic, that we need a kind of a new agreement, which is the difference between kind of capital versus labor, but how AI will, what I say, democratize the benefits of AI to more people from both skills, but also jobs and economic opportunity. And if you don't, the American people are going to call data center rebellion, you know, rebellion against that.

56:58Rahm Emanuel:It's just minor compared to what's going to happen. And the government's going to have to step in and do this from an executive branch standpoint.

57:04Kara Swisher:But the tech people are still, aside from those guys, like David Sachs was like, how dare you do this? This is our greatest thing and is pushing Trump, even as this is happening. And he has been integral to what I think has been a disaster for the tech industry in terms of their imagery, right? They look like villains now. They're villains now. They're the villains. And young people get it.

57:26Rahm Emanuel:I mean, they're villains and they're actually also, they want to take all the benefit and you're just going to live in their world. Now, I'm sorry, that's not how a democratic capitalist system works. There is real opportunity. Look, given the competitiveness with China, this is going to be one like fusion, like quantum computing, et cetera, like life sciences, one of the dominant technologies of the future. But it's not going to be three winners and 333 million losers. That is not how we're keeping score. And in the end of the day, like everywhere else, industry likes regulations because it sets rules, guidelines, and principles.

58:04Rahm Emanuel:Correct. When you go back to what's happening, like insider training, for the fact that businesses are not calling that out, this is going to come back to bite you right in the butt.

58:14Kara Swisher:That's what I said. You know, it's interesting. When I saw those statistics and then David Sachs yammering on about it, I was like, you know, David, sit the fuck down because the American people don't like what you're doing. And Trump is stupid to listen to.

58:26Rahm Emanuel:I would like to say you have dropped the F-bomb three times and I'm at zero, just for the record.

58:31Kara Swisher:I'm sorry, I know. I know, I know, I know. You can do it anytime. That's more your brother's thing. That's more your elderly brother's thing.

58:39Rahm Emanuel:You will never find me ever saying it publicly. I know.

58:43Kara Swisher:In my whole career.

58:43Rahm Emanuel:Do not do that.

58:44Kara Swisher:You don't. I'm just telling you, that's your brother. I have a tape of him yelling at me like that.

58:48Rahm Emanuel:Because I know, even though my mother is deaf, she'll hear it and come and grab me.

58:53Kara Swisher:I have a voice note from your brother saying, Karis Fisher, fuck you. So I'm going to keep it for the rest of my life. I'm thinking of making it mine.

59:00Rahm Emanuel:That was probably a term of endearment.

59:02Kara Swisher:It was. It was. It's because he did invite me to some party. Anyway, I don't want to go to his parties. It doesn't matter. But happy birthday. All right, Rom, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about RFK getting into the podcast game.

59:18Rahm Emanuel:Hi, I'm Brene Brown.

59:20Kara Swisher:And I'm Adam Grant.

59:21Rahm Emanuel:And we're here to invite you to the Curiosity Shop.

59:23Kara Swisher:A podcast that's a place for listening, wondering, thinking, feeling, and questioning.

59:28Rahm Emanuel:It's going to be fun. We rarely agree.

59:31Kara Swisher:But we almost never disagree, and we're always learning.

59:35Rahm Emanuel:That's true. You can subscribe to the Curiosity Shop on YouTube or follow in your favorite podcast app to automatically receive new episodes every Thursday.

59:48Kara Swisher:Ron, we're back with just one more quick story. I regret to inform you that RFK Jr. is launching a podcast. You know it's trouble now. The pod will focus on telling the truth, especially when it's uncomfortable in confronting the spiritual malaise. Let's watch a clip of the announcement, I guess. It's not quite as bad as his strange porn movie with Kid Rock, but let's go.

1:00:08Rahm Emanuel:If we want a healthy nation, we have to confront the lies that have made us spiritually, morally, and physically sick. The time for half measures is now over. We're launching a new era of radical transparency in government here at HHS. I hope you'll join us in our mission to make America healthy again.

1:00:26Kara Swisher:Oh, my goodness. And of course, just as there is news in the Washington Post that they're trying to suppress a CDC report that vaccines are good for you, COVID vaccines. So just transparent, Bobby.

1:00:37Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, I was going to say, it gives a whole new meaning to what transparency is not.

1:00:40Kara Swisher:Yeah. So is he just preparing for his next career when he gets bounced or what is happening? And I hope, are you co-hosting his podcast next? Well, first of all, two things.

1:00:50Rahm Emanuel:One is he's preparing that, but it's also to earbrush his past. He has been an absolute horrible Secretary of Health and Human Services on every measure outside of what's happened with opiates and he has nothing to do with it.

1:01:04Kara Swisher:Yeah. Best friend to measles is what I call him. Best friend to measles.

1:01:06Rahm Emanuel:Yes. Measles, the lack of confidence in the American CDC, our other types of our life sciences, our capacities, our health care costs. Everything that he has touched in the great tradition of this administration is broken. It needed repair. It needed to be strengthened. And across the board, you cannot walk from a single agency or department. And he's been the kind of a point of the spear. It's the largest domestic agency in the United States, Health and Human Services. And he has made a mess of it. And the people he's appointed have made a mess of it from CDC to NIH to Medicare and Medicaid. And they have done nothing to measurely improve the health of the American people.

1:01:50Rahm Emanuel:And I will say, having dealt with this as both chief of staff, but more importantly, when I helped pass the ACA or President Clinton's Children's Health Insurance, but as mayor of the city of Chicago, 8 % of our workforce was driving 70 % of our health care costs around chronic illnesses, heart, obesity, et cetera. He could have focused on something that actually moved the needle in both dropping health care costs and improving public health. and rather than bring the cut together, like everything in this administration, never lose an opportunity to divide Americans. They have, from the president to his cabinet, have found multiple opportunities to divide people and literally repressed examples where they could actually bring people together of different political views to work on a common issue.

1:02:40Kara Swisher:And shame on doctors and the Senate who voted for him. I mean, just the Republican.

1:02:45Rahm Emanuel:Well, that gets back to, you know, it's a senator. Senator Cassidy is going to pay the price, like Senator Tillis, for having basically taken your conscience and put it in a lockbox. When the vote came and you knew what was right, you took the politically expedient case. And I don't want to draw this to myself, but since I'm on, I'll draw it to myself. I can't tell you how many times I used to walk into Clinton's office or President Obama's. Oh, well, I said, you're out of your mind. If you do this, this is the Christ. I'm going to lay it out to you. You'll have a debate about it. They understand the consequence of this.

1:03:15Rahm Emanuel:I was an employee. Get out of here. You're an independent U.S. senator. I was a congressman. I was a mayor. You got elected. You have a responsibility to what the trust people gave.

1:03:27Kara Swisher:Although, I'll tell you what Tillis told me. You know what a martyr is. He's dead. He was like, you can't operate from a position of dead. And I still was like, I don't care. Be dead then. You know what I mean? Because you'll have inspired someone else.

1:03:42Rahm Emanuel:Yeah, well, he may say that politically. He may say that politically. But that vote gave a license to a guy to do a political purge of the greatest military force this country did, the greatest turnaround this country did. I've worked with these men and women at all levels. The amount of dedication, the amount of understanding of politics, culture, history, working diplomatically, working militarily, excess doesn't hold a candle to any of the people who fired.

1:04:10Kara Swisher:Same thing with RFK. So you won't be listening to his podcast, in other words. Anyway. No. All right. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

1:04:27Kara Swisher:Okay, Rob, let's hear a prediction. There's so many things. Keep it brief. We've got just a little time. I want to play one thing at the end from NASA, from the Artemis. But what is your prediction?

1:04:38Rahm Emanuel:Prediction that nobody will be held accountable for playing the games in the prediction market with inside information. The CFTC, the SEC, the Justice Department, not only are asleep, they're in on the scam.

1:04:50Kara Swisher:Nobody for now.

1:04:52Rahm Emanuel:Nobody for now. Under this administration until they're held accountable. Can I do one thing personally? Sure, please, absolutely. All right, my son runs a two-hour, 39-minute marathon. He did it in Boston.

1:05:05Kara Swisher:Amazing.

1:05:05Rahm Emanuel:He's going to run the Boston Marathon again. I think he'll have a personal best.

1:05:08Kara Swisher:Oh, wow.

1:05:09Rahm Emanuel:He ran a two-hour, 39, which is incredible. It is. marathon. I think this coming Boston Ranty journey again, he's going to get a personal best. Oh, that's very sweet. That's both a prediction, a hope, and a wish, and I'm very proud of him.

1:05:23Kara Swisher:Oh, that is amazing. You should run with him. No, I'm not.

1:05:27Rahm Emanuel:Amy runs a marathon. As I always say, we're going to have to do a test because I don't know who your father is. I have no idea about this man. The kid's an incredible runner.

1:05:36Kara Swisher:Okay. And that, I want to leave on a thing of hope. Speaking of hope, that's wonderful. One of the things I did feel, I think Americans really watched this Artemis flight done by NASA. It was sort of a wonderful moment. All Americans, the numbers are quite high, which is wonderful. NASA, and they did a great job on social media, and this crew is just so wonderful. Men hugging and crying and saying wonderful things and laughing. And it just has been a real, it's a wonderful group of people up there. And it sort of represents the best of America in that regard, kind and good-hearted. But NASA is preparing for the return of Artemis II after this historic moon flyby.

1:06:14Kara Swisher:These pictures are delightful and amazing and astonishing, and it also makes you appreciate Earth. Let's listen to a clip from crew member Christina Cook after the spacecraft passed by the moon. We will explore. We will build. We will build ships. We will visit again. We will construct science outposts. We will drive rovers. We will do radio astronomy. We will found companies. We will boast their industry. We will inspire. But ultimately, we will always choose Earth. We will always choose each other. Just what you're talking about, Rahm. Maker the head of NASA.

1:06:51Rahm Emanuel:I actually think it was a perfect and typical spirit to what you're seeing out of this administration. We'll choose Earth and we'll choose each other. And we'll do things. period of where we did a war of choice yeah it was a act and it touched look i do think there's this yearning out there to actually not see our fellow americans as the enemy or the it could be an opponent but from a political standpoint but it's not your enemy and i thought she touched that human kind of spirit and also most importantly for uh the united states that's something we can unify around. I don't know about you, I get on the, you know, open my iPad.

1:07:32Rahm Emanuel:First thing I do is see the pictures they're sending.

1:07:34Kara Swisher:They're beautiful.

1:07:35Rahm Emanuel:And look at the, I looked at the earth from that eclipse photo, which I thought was most beautiful shot. And then there was also complimentary, the web telescope put out new pictures of the galaxy. And it's just, it, it, there's, it kindles and it's, and it has that little light that illuminates in you of something that you can, as you said, hopeful, proud, and optimistic about. And I thought her message was just... Beautiful. It's a beautiful planet. It was a family like the Pope's.

1:08:05Kara Swisher:We have a beautiful planet. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot. Just submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Elsewhere in the Kara and Scott universe this week, my new CNN show, Kara Swisher Wants to Live Forever, is premiering this Saturday, April 11th at 9 p.m. Eastern. And Scott is actually going to interview me at the premiere in New York tonight. And also your brother, Zeke, is in it. And he's hysterical. He and I are wearing colonial garb together. And we had a ball. Oh, God. He's really good.

1:08:38Kara Swisher:It's the making of a star. Anyway, you're all fascinating, the Emanuel's. Anyway, thank you so much for joining me today. There's never a dull moment. Thanks. That's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. And be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott will be back from wherever the hell he's gone, and we're excited to have him back. But all the guest hosts, Kristen Soltis, Anderson Rahm, and Anthony Scaramucci have been amazing, and I really appreciate it. I'm going to read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Neyman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin.

1:09:10Kara Swisher:Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Manolo Moreno edited the video. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Rom for president.