Iran War: Trump's Endgame, Economic Fallout, and Polymarket Profiteering

12:49Scott Galloway:So I think there's a lot that could go right here. And I think the risk assessment provided to the president, in my view, had a lot of asymmetric upside. Now, having said that, But what they missed here was part of the Powell Doctrine, and that is you have to have clearly articulated objectives.

13:06Kara Swisher:Or plans for next beyond the bomb. Well, they haven't.

13:09Scott Galloway:And to your point, they just haven't been able to articulate in the last 24 hours what is the off-ramp and the objective here? Is it regime change? Is it a more friendly regime? I mean, what exactly? And not only that, you're not going to get this notion that all of a sudden we're going to provide air cover, and the Iranian people are going to rise up and overtake 150 ,000 members of the IRGC who are deeply integrated into—

13:35Kara Swisher:They have outside plans. There's some great reporting on this, by the way, by legitimate news organizations. They have contingency plans in place for what happens if the Ayatollah dies, and they're carrying them out.

13:48Scott Galloway:Okay, but in Syria, Libya, in Iraq, these were autocracies with a central figurehead. the RGC is very deeply embedded into the economy. So when your mortgage and your salary is being paid by the RGC, it's not like, oh, okay, the top guy, Assad is gone and boom, it's a new administration. So there's a lot about the ground game. There's a lot about intelligence assets. And if they had said, we are going to, for example, a potential offer, we're going to neuter their Navy. We're going to diminish their air defense capabilities. We're going to make sure for sure. There is absolutely no ability to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles.

14:29Scott Galloway:And then we're going to leave it up to the Iranian people. That's technically an off ramp. But I have seen in the last 24 hours them talk about regime change. No, this isn't regime change. So they haven't been able to articulate what is next.

14:42Kara Swisher:Well, I don't believe they thought about it. I mean, one of the things that a lot of people are pointing out is the involvement of Netanyahu and the head of Saudi Arabia, who publicly had said he was against this, but privately was quite for it and pressing for it. The linkage between the corruption with the Trump family and this coin-operated presidency that I talk about all the time is really very clear because most, I would say, they're trying to come up with a story after the fact. Oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an endless war, although it feels kind of like an endless war. It feels very Bushian, right?

15:15Kara Swisher:You definitely had echoes of that. I think he thought it was going to be like Venezuela, right? That it was like, just take that guy out. And by the way, he's in business with the Maduro administration. He didn't regime change that place at all. Like speaking of regime change.

15:29Scott Galloway:This is much more complicated.

15:31Kara Swisher:I agree, but I think he thought it was like that.

15:33Scott Galloway:No, I'm agreeing with you. This is not take out Maduro and this is much more.

15:39Kara Swisher:He just has cowed the regime into it, but it's the same regime. In this case, it's really fascinating how they have put themselves into this economy in a way that's very hard to get them out, right? Of course, this is their point of these very corrupt and I would say evil mullahs in Iran. But one of the things that's fascinating to me is one, the continued corruption of Trump's family and Trump within this region. And second of all, that he keeps calling, have you noticed He's calling all, I'm waiting for a call from him myself. Like he called Jake Tapper. He called, you know, a bunch of John Carl.

16:20Kara Swisher:He's called all the regular old media people, essentially, or the people he decries all the time. And it seems like he's workshopping different reasons. Like it's, that's so disturbing.

16:33Scott Galloway:Yeah, he's trying to figure out what people want. But there is, again, what could go right here? The most powerful instinct is survival. And what we pulled off here, and when I say we, I actually think it was more than Mossad than us. We effectively, and I don't think people really register how profound this was, within about two hours, we took out the equivalent of the president, the secretary of defense, and the head of the joint chiefs.

17:00Kara Swisher:Right. They were all in the same place. But yes.

17:02Scott Galloway:And then, and what has got to be the strategic mistake of, I would say, the last five years, other than the decision by Hamas to go into Israel, geopolitically, they started attacking civilian targets within the Gulf. Not a good idea.

17:19Kara Swisher:Fareed Zakaria noted that this was their mistake.

17:22Scott Galloway:I mean, that's just, okay, you want to isolate yourself from who should naturally be sympathetic to you. Now, going back to this notion of survival instinct, at some point, you got to think the next level down. And I don't know if it's 1 ,000 or 10 ,000 or 100 ,000 or 150 ,000 IRGCs say, okay, we too really like our families and this thing called life. Maybe we need to come to some sort of accommodation with the U.S. and the West.

17:50Kara Swisher:That would require, as you know, boots on the ground. And Trump didn't even roll that out again. Like, here's what really drives me crazy. This idea, they're like, it's not endless war. The other presidents were just dumb. It's the same thing. You know, they're just trying very hard to spin it. And by the way, you noted a poll that half Americans support it. It's actually not the case. Many of the polls are showing 25 percent. I didn't say that.

18:14Scott Galloway:Fifty five percent of Republicans and it's about 30 percent. Oh, Republicans. OK. Now, amongst Democrats, it's seven percent. And I'm amongst the seven percent of Democrats who support this. But it's a little bit different because, OK, what they're hoping for, And maybe it's a hallucination that it's not boots on the ground, that it's sandals and sneakers and slippers that the Iranian people based on. The problem is the 30 ,000 people that have been mowed down were the front lines. They were the Marines. They were the shock troops who were willing to risk their lives. So the reality is kind of what the off ramp will be or how this plays out.

18:49Scott Galloway:Or how you help them. out in the next week in terms of the Iranian populace's ability to foment change on the ground, because the American public does not have any appetite for boots on the ground. But what I talked to a senator this morning, I'm like, isn't a reasonable off ramp that you would say, OK, we're going to diminish their ability to wreak havoc to a point, you know, 0.1. We're going to control the skies. We're going to diminish their navy. We're not going to we're going to clear out their minesweepers from the Straits of Hormuz. We're going to absolutely ensure there is zero capability nuclear.

19:17Kara Swisher:Which he said was obliterated in June. Just let's point that out.

19:21Scott Galloway:Fair point. Again, more inconsistency. Why did we need to go back in to diminish their nuclear capacity when you said it was done seven months ago? So there is inconsistent messaging. But I think the opportunity is here to diminish the capacity to continue to levy this depravity and oppression amongst its populace and potentially liberate one of the great cultures in civilization's history that sits on unbelievable economic potential, economic prosperity. There is a real potential upside here.

19:54Kara Swisher:You know where else there's a potential of upside is Ukraine. Same thing. Agreed. So what's really interesting to hear is he yells at Europe for not pulling their fair share in defense. Fine. I can see that argument, even though he makes it in the crude and repulsive way. Why isn't Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this? We're doing their cop duty, and we happen to have a corrupt cop on the beat.

20:17Scott Galloway:Oh, Israel's sacrifice.

20:19Kara Swisher:I'm talking about you don't hear the same language, right? If Saudi Arabia wanted this to happen, they should pay for it. Like, if that's really the thing, why do I have to pay as an American taxpayer$270 million for three planes? Like, that kind of stuff. And so and why are why isn't this money deployed elsewhere that I think is in our not me? I'm not running this show, but like, why isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like, that's that's what's really interesting, because there's a country that is full of like economic talk about economic opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus you on the toll on the U.S.

20:53Kara Swisher:economy, because all these a free. Well, first of all, every attempt at regime change in the Middle East has failed almost miserably for the United States. or a version of regime change. Afghanis everywhere, everywhere we go.

21:06Scott Galloway:Well, to be fair, it did work in the Balkans. We have had successful interventions. In Kuwait, we successfully repelled. The difference there is we did it multilaterally, which he's stupid to do here. Already Britain, our closest ally, is humming and hawing about letting us use the airfields. He wants to go it alone, which is stupid. Anyway, I interrupted you. You're talking about the economics here.

21:26Kara Swisher:So I want to know about the effect on the economy because one of the things, because when people start a war, It tends to be in the 60s period, right? It's 25. And I get that the Democrats don't like it, but 25 is a bad place to start when you're doing a war, which if you remember, remember the stud scud and everyone being vaguely excited when they were doing those? I mean, even myself, which is grotesque because I now have children. I'm like, oh, no, no, no. But talk about the toll on the economy, because every—and the MAGA people, Green, Carlson, even more heinous people, are talking about this is not what we voted for, right?

22:07Kara Swisher:This is not—and they're trying very desperately to pretend it's not an endless war. It's whatever word they're going to use is not going to work with these people. He's already struck seven countries, seven events. Like, he's done more war. Like, it was interesting because Hillary Clinton was so prescient about exactly what he would do here. He seems to like and have an appetite for military action because everything's going so badly for him. So talk about the effect on the U.S. economy. Oil prices, right? Inflation. More danger for the U.S. in terms of attacks on our own soil from the Iranians.

22:44Kara Swisher:I mean, if you back these Iranians into a corner, they may do something really dire here in this country. What is the toll in the U.S. economy? And let me add in that people were using this war to cash in on online betting markets, which was repulsive. CalShe reportedly saw$36 million in bet volume related to whether or not there will be regime change in Iran. On Polly Market,$529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes, and some of them seem rather suspect. In fact, Polly Market defended its decision to allow betting on the start of the war, saying it's an invaluable source of news and answers.

23:17Kara Swisher:It feels like profiteering to me. But talk a little bit about the impact on the economy. What's next if under – think of two scenarios. What's next for the economy?

23:29Scott Galloway:Well, just to go in reverse order, I actually would argue that we have diminished – I mean, you have what is – what was the superpower in the region with their proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis wreaking havoc economically and in terms of oppression of different people in the region. And their organizing principle was death to Israel and death to America. And I would argue that even if we don't have the regime change or a quote-unquote liberated capitalist, West-friendly Iran, that their ability to strike at us and our proxies overseas and our bases has actually been diminished. That they're not now, we need to be more worried.

24:11I think we need to actually be less worried.

24:14Scott Galloway:There are two scenarios here. One scenario is we end up in another forever war that explodes our deficits and we keep incrementally making excuses for trying to impose democracy, which is an oxymoron. And oil prices, the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked off and oil prices skyrocket. Now, to a certain extent, if you wanted to be really Machiavellian, that doesn't hurt us that much because we are energy independent, who this really is hurting, both Venezuela and Iran, is China. 80 % of Iran's oil was going to China. The same with Venezuela. So we can survive an oil shock, but you could have an increase in deficits of a forever war, disruption in supply chain, straining our relationships with the allies.

24:59Scott Galloway:I personally think there's more asymmetric upside where we unlock stronger oil flows, better technology, a potential trading partner for Europe and the U.S. And I would argue, I would bet, I believe in six months that oil prices will be lower than they are today. Now, to your point about costs and economics, I am sympathetic to the left's view, many people on the left, that these forever wars and foreign intervention and imperialists imposing our own values on other cultures and other nations is not only wrong, it is just really fucking expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What I'm not sympathetic to -

25:38Kara Swisher:Can I make a correction? Charlie Kirk talked about this. The right, this has been an animating issue. Well, I was just about to get there, Cara.

25:46Scott Galloway:The right has a very strong isolationist bent. What is inconsistent for me, it is consistent to say, let's focus on our problems domestically. Let's spend money domestically. Let's not run up deficits with tax cuts and forever wars in a macho military. And let's stay out of other people's knitting, recognizing that we respect their right to govern themselves and shape their own future. What is totally inconsistent is the far right or the right's isolationist rhetoric while approving a$1.1 trillion military budget. Because my view is the only rationale for having a$1.1 trillion military budget is, quite frankly, is if on a regular basis you're going to go on your toes.

26:29Scott Galloway:Because if we don't want to get involved in this kind of foreign adventures or misadventures, whatever you want to characterize it, there's no risk of Canada invading us. Let's take our military budget down to$300 billion and pay off our deficit. it. So I've never understood the right's fascination with ridiculous military spending and then this isolationist complexion. I personally think the upside over the medium and the long term here economically with a peaceful Middle East, once its primary sponsor of terror is neutered here, I think it actually, I think this over the medium and the long term could be really good for Europe.

27:00Scott Galloway:And if we could figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to have a neutral West Iran, I think you're going to see the largest tax cut in history because I think the flows of oil will cut oil probably in half. And you'll have an incredible trading partner with what is one of the most productive capitalist in many ways societies in history, and that's the Persian people.

27:23Kara Swisher:Yeah, that is true. So I understand. One of the things that troubles me is this. One is that he really doesn't seem to have a plan and he's the president. Right. And that people within his administration.

27:35Scott Galloway:He'll call you and ask you for your plan. He's going to.

27:37Kara Swisher:My plan is for you to step down. But then I would get J.D. Vance. But that's my suggestion. And you should go off and spend all this money you've stolen from the American people. But one of the things that I think about a lot is that this is done in such a haphazard way without the involvement of Congress, right? That really is troublesome. And that these Republicans who are against these things immediately get in line. Now, look, Lindsey Graham, that Southern belle, has always been wanting to do this, right? I mean, now he wants to go from—he is Southern belle. And he's wanted to do this. He wants to do Cuba next.

28:18Kara Swisher:Let's do Cuba next, right? That's the whole thing. This is all, he just, in his mistaken -

28:24Scott Galloway:Cuba isn't blinding its women. It's not hanging teenage girls and then sanctioning rape of them.

28:30Kara Swisher:He said Cuba, he did. Yeah, I agree.

28:32Scott Galloway:No, I'm saying that makes, in my opinion, as much as a war hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to invade Cuba.

28:38Kara Swisher:Well, I think that's next. It seems like they're just going to get bored over here and come over here. But this is something Lindsey Graham has wanted forever in his endless and sad attempt to be more masculine in some fashion. So, fine. Fine, Lindsey. That's fine. But one of the things that really drives me crazy is these people are so—they shift. These people say one thing one week and then shift it the next week. Like, look, I know you like to attack the left, but they're sticking to their guns on these kind of things. I'm sorry I like to attack what? Oh, the left a lot. But the right just shifts it.

29:09Kara Swisher:Like, it's like we're against it, we're against it, we're against it. Charlie Kirk said, let's not be dragged into this by so-and-so. Let's focus here.

29:17Scott Galloway:Okay, then let's cut our military budget to$300 billion.

29:19Kara Swisher:I get it. I get it. But I just don't see why they shift this way. It's really, it's sad because I like when there's argument over what we should do here in a way that everybody gets to.

29:32Scott Galloway:And it's meant to be a discourse in the Congress. I agree with that. Barry Goldwater called us in the 70s. He said that we have become dangerously used to a slow leak of power from the co-equal branches of government and Congress to the president. And what kept that mostly in check was a series of norms where the president would go and inform the Senate Intelligence Committee or the people on the Defense Committee that he would give them a heads up. He'd invite them to the White House and say, this is what we're thinking. What do you think? Those norms are gone. And so there's got to be, unless there is structural reform around what it means to have co-equal brown, Republicans are resigning from Congress because they're like, why the fuck am I here?

30:11Scott Galloway:Yeah, yeah. Well, I'm not even good. The Speaker of the House is not Mike Johnson. He's the Speaker of the White House. He's there to run roughshod over people in the minority party are used to getting fucked over. They're used to having no power. But Republicans are like, let me get this. I stuck around to be in the majority such that I could represent my people and get policies through. And I'm not even being consulted on that shit.

30:33Kara Swisher:No. And on the Democratic, I'd say centrist conservative, I've never seen Senator Warner, who I consider pretty like.

30:42Scott Galloway:He's a moderate.

30:44Kara Swisher:Moderate, more than moderate. I mean, I think he's often, we often disagree on a lot of stuff. He was incandescent. You know, because he sees these things. He knows, he has so much experience in Senate intelligence, etc., etc. And to watch people who had said the very opposite shift was really something because at the very bottom of this, it puts people's lives at risk unnecessarily. And not just American troops, which is terrible. It's people on the ground there, Iranian citizens, which American troops. And I worry about American, you know, people attacking here. And it just creates a situation that when you there's just this guy, this guy's got to have a better reason than to call someone and have a different reason every minute.

31:31Kara Swisher:And we'll see its effect on the stock market's not loving this at all. But we'll see. We'll see where it goes.

31:37Scott Galloway:You brought up Kalshi. And what's fascinating about these things is they tend to be right, that those are wisdom of the crowds. And when you have Senator Warner, who has just had a lot, this is not his first rodeo, he's had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs come before him and explain their plans. And when you have Senator Mark Kelly, who's actually flown these missions, if you don't take advantage of the benefit of their insight, even if they don't agree with you, you're not taking advantage of the greatest depth, the greatest IP depth of knowledge and experience in military history. And that's amongst, quite frankly, many of our members of Congress.

32:17If you're not bringing Representative Seth Moulton in and saying, hey, when you were on the ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we're consulting with a senator from Florida, a former Fox TV

32:32Scott Galloway:host, and a reality game show host, they're making these decisions?

32:37Kara Swisher:And the FBI is being run by a guy who likes to party in the middle of a possible terrorist action in this country.

32:44Scott Galloway:So they're just going to make, and this is, I always like to try and reverse engineer to a personal learning here. One of my biggest flaws, biggest flaws as a man is I thought that masculinity and leadership was making a quick survey of the situation and then making a decision. And then it was my job to talk everyone into my decision. No, it's not. Leadership is listening and occasionally going, oh, fuck, I got it wrong. We need to switch course. I don't make now, I didn't learn this until I was literally 50. I don't make a big decision personally, financially, professionally, without talking to three or four really fucking smart people.

33:25Scott Galloway:Because you can't read the label from inside of the bottle. And the U.S. Congress is full of some of the most impressive, experienced, smartest people in the world. And beyond that, there's people all over the world. And also, they have this incredible task of representing their constituency to not check in with them. I think Senator Warner is apoplectic because he's like, for God's sakes, we can save you from yourself.

33:48Kara Swisher:That's right. That's right. He wasn't out of ego. I just I've never seen him do that. It was really interesting. Anyway, we have to move on. This is a developing story. We'll see what happens. It seems like a very, as Gavin Newsom said, a chaotic White House that might be trying to get us away from the Epstein files or other issues at home. We didn't even talk about the distraction, but we'll go on a quick break. When we come back, Trump targets Anthropic, another incredible tech company in what former Trump official calls attempted corporate murder.

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37:51Kara Swisher:Tropic also faced a major outage on Monday with the company saying it's been dealing with, quote, unprecedented demand. Meanwhile, OpenAI, of course, Sam, ever the opportunist, OpenAI's Sam Altman reached an agreement with the Pentagon. The company claims it found a way to ensure its technologies would adhere to its safety principles by installing technical card wheels. However, when Sam Altman was asked on S whether he worried about there be future disputes with the Pentagon or what's legal, he responded, yes, I am. Oh, my God, Sam, I got to tell you, you need to stop talking. A former Trump official called the anthropic order attempted corporate murder.

38:26Kara Swisher:It's a backdrop of OpenAI raising$110 billion in its latest funding around, including$50 billion from Amazon and$30 billion from both NVIDIA and SoftBank and these continued round-tripping kind of deals. I read a lot this weekend about this and one of the people involved was a guy named Emil Michael who used to be an executive at Uber who was possibly one of the most bullying and awful executives and full of all manner of bad behaviors when there he left the company we wrote some stories of a thing he was involved in that was just so not a good behavior I would say I have spent time with him. He was the one that was negotiating this.

39:11Kara Swisher:Not a surprise. He kept calling Dario Amodi from Anthropic godlike. God, he thinks he's God or whatever. I've never met anyone who thinks he's God more than Emil Michael, and he's usually a toady to more powerful people, in this case, Pete Hegseth. Anyway, it seems a ridiculous overreach on the behalf of government. Probably Anthropic will win. I think it probably will benefit from this, as you've noted many times. Any more thoughts on this? I don't think we're any safer as a people for having done this.

39:41Scott Galloway:I think what people miss is that over the last 12 months, out of 23 markets, we're the 21st best performing or the third worst. And what has changed? We've had incredible innovation.

39:54Kara Swisher:The Dow is up 50 ,000. It's good. Sorry.

39:56Scott Galloway:We still have incredible innovation. We dominate the most tectonic shift in technology. The thing that's changing is I believe we're experiencing a rotation out of U.S. stocks and a compression of multiples. And the reason why is the following. The underpinnings of why so much capital flows into the U.S. from every other market in the world is our incredible IP developed mostly through funding of research at universities. An incredibly risk-aggressive culture based on immigrants who take huge risks to get here. and also I think more than anything probably or chicken and egg it attracts the deepest pools of capital in history there's five million dollars in venture capital for every startup in the U.S.

40:40there's only one million for every startup in Europe.

40:43Scott Galloway:Anthropic started six years ago if it was in Europe it'd be one of the 10 most valuable companies but when governments start selectively punishing and rewarding companies based on political favoritism, that capital gets scared and starts withdrawing. Because why do you invest in open AI or Anthropic if you don't know who you're waking up next to in terms of its ability to raise capital based on the blood sugar level of whoever's president? So this is not only the wrong thing to do and makes us feel less safe, and it's probably illegal. It's going to hit your 401k, folks. And even in places like the Gulf that are run by autocracies, they have a real respect for systemic laws in the market because they recognize the moment they start fucking with companies based on their own, who's in or out of political favor, which has no stock market because nobody wants to invest and then find out the CEO got a call from the wrong person or got on the wrong list and is all of a sudden out of business.

41:47Scott Galloway:So even in China, people, I think they learned their lesson a little bit with Didi, where they got angry at Didi and basically crushed Didi. They're now, you know, they have a lot of respect for essentially regulatory bodies, consistent application of rule of law, trying not to play favorites. So this will, the immediate reaction will be, okay, they're wrong. This is illegal. Fine. And also from a commercial standpoint, I've been saying for the last year that someone has an incredible commercial opportunity to say enough. We're the good guys. We do not buy into this. If this costs us money in the short term, fine.

42:28Scott Galloway:But the very American values that gave us so much opportunity are under attack and we're just not down with it. And I don't know if you remember me saying this. I said six months ago, the biggest opportunity for Nike, which is trading at a 10-year low, was to run a bunch of ads saying, we're about American values and what's going on here is wrong. What's interesting is the corporate America needed a hero and it looks like it's Dario.

42:51Kara Swisher:I know. It's interesting.

42:53Scott Galloway:What's really interesting here is I think, and it's finally happening, they're shaping up to be Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali here. and I think that Dario is being very smart and I think it's up to us and the media are progressives and I'm obviously stitching this into the risks and unsubscribed thinking. I think it's time to start figuring out if there's a way to be more commercially supportive of Anthropic and less supportive of OpenAI. Basically, OpenAI has decided to enable and be complicit in the Trump administration's efforts and Dario and Anthropic have said, no, we're not going along here.

43:27Scott Galloway:We're not gonna be intimidated. This is, quite frankly, Cara, I have been waiting for this matchup for a year. I know, yeah.

43:32Kara Swisher:I know you have. Let me say, I don't know Dara Amodi. I don't, actually. And he might be arrogant, which is in line with most people in tech. That may be true. But I do know Emil Michael, who did negotiate this. And I do know David Sachs. And both of them are Aryan operators, ceaseless bullies, and unctuous toadies to the powerful, in my experience of covering them. So Sam Altman is a little more complex, but he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't make him that different from anybody in Silicon Valley. And has made his choice here, right? He wants the business. And so it's a really, knowing the characters involved here, and then on the top of it, you have an idiot, like a moron, like Pete Hegseth, who doesn't know what's happening, communicating to someone who's even more moronic on these issues, which is Donald Trump, who I think just, I suspect Sachs is whispering in his ear and Neil Michaels whispering in Hegseth's ear.

44:34Kara Swisher:And this is all a Silicon Valley beef, right, between and among these people. Neil had to leave Uber under very not great circumstances, was pushed out. I think all these people is payback for other people. It's just there's a lot of Silicon Valley drama happening here. And I don't know Dario Amoni. I don't. I don't. I really don't. It's unusual that I don't. And I've asked for interviews with him. He has not agreed to do an interview with me. Thanks, Chris Nelte. But I do. And he did a very good interview with CBS News, actually, which I thought was interesting.

45:13Scott Galloway:He handled himself really well. He handled himself really well. He starched his hat white in that interview.

45:17Kara Swisher:Yeah, it was a good interview. But one of the things that I know is the people on the other side of him are very people I covered for years who are just not good. How can I say this nicely? They're the worst of the people I had to cover over the many years. I have to say they're literally the worst. And to see them in these positions of power is making these decisions and hurting a company that just doesn't want to do business with them. And actually, Michael tweeted out against Emody weeks ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as a government. Like, it's such based in beefs that were happening elsewhere.

45:59Kara Swisher:And Emil, I ended up having drinks with him after he was sort of drummed out of Uber. And he said something to me. It was so strange. He goes, well, I'm so glad we can be friends. And I remember saying to him, we're not friends. I think what you did there is terrible. I don't know where you operate. But let him just do what he wants and don't bring your stupid, insecure beefs out on the thing. And it will benefit Anthropik. It will. I think he's handling himself. And he may be arrogant. He may have a God-climps. I don't know. I don't know. But he's certainly not like these people. And in that case, the bar is low.

46:34Kara Swisher:I've had my say.

46:35Scott Galloway:I think it's a big opportunity. I think Americans and consumers are so ready to vote with their pocketbooks. And Sam, I don't think Sam has acquitted himself well. I'm not going to have advertising. We would never do porn. Well, I need to raise money. Never mind. and the largest customer in the world, which is the U.S. government, needs to have a series of systemic laws that don't, that these are the rules you get to play by in full stop. Everyone is entitled to and obligated to the same set of rules, not who you like or who you don't like. And which kind of leads into our next story, which is Netflix and Paramount.

47:12Kara Swisher:Right, Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott, let's take a quick break. When we come back, Netflix emerges as a winner after losing the Warner Brothers battle.

47:24Scott Galloway:Support for this show comes from Harvey AI. Law is a craft forged through repetition, sharpened by judgment, perfected in the details most people never see. Practice Made Perfect is Harvey's belief in relentless refinement and turning complexity into clarity, pressure into precision, and experience into advantage. Legal work isn't just about knowing the law. It's about applying it carefully, consistently, and under real stakes. Harvey is an AI platform built specifically for legal practice, helping teams analyze large volumes of documents, draft with precision, and collaborate securely across complex matters.

48:01Scott Galloway:It doesn't replace expertise, it strengthens it, making teams faster, more exacting, and more certain. Today, more than half of the Amlaw 100 use Harvey as part of their workflow. Learn more at Harvey.ai.

48:42Scott Galloway:Fresh towels?

48:42Kara Swisher:It matters where you stay. Book now at Hilton.com. Hilton, for this day.

48:55Kara Swisher:Scott, we're back. Netflix may have lost the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's looking like a winner. Boy, this is incredible. The company's stock surged 14 % of it, formally exited the bidding war. It also now has$2.8 billion in the bank after Paramount paid the Warner Brothers breakup fee. He went after the plan all along was to saddle Paramount with debt, drive up the price and walk away with more money. Ted Sarando said there are easier ways to make$2.8 billion. Very funny. He's also trashing it so beautifully. I have to say, what a pro the way, like, it's ridiculously expensive. He's dropping all sorts of bone mouths in that Bloomberg interview he did.

49:29Kara Swisher:I'm hoping to do an interview with him relatively soon. He noted that Paramount deals depended on cost cutting leading to less production, less people working. He's 100 percent right. on the Paramount front, CEO David Ellison, who got strafed by Barry Diller as a stunt pilot in a speech, another thing, just announced that Paramount Plus and HBO Max will be combined into one streaming service. He also said there would be a lot less, I think, a lot of cuts,$6 billion in cuts that he can quickly deleverage it. Nobody believes him or thinks he's capable of doing it. Sarandos had talked more about$16 billion.

50:03Kara Swisher:Let me just tell you, Hollywood, look out below. This is, look, I don't think Allison means to be incorrect, but he is incorrect about what's about to happen here because the pressures on this much debt. I talked to, as you know, Bill Cohen, because you weren't around last weekend, but this much debt is enormous amounts of debt. It's like crazy. They don't have enough income. They have barely enough income, so they can't grow. They have to cut. There's going to be, there is obvious duplication that they will cut, but even more than that. Anything they say at this point is just absolutely untrue.

50:41Kara Swisher:It's just, and I, again, I don't think they mean it that way. I think they believe it, that they can, you know, turn shit into chicken shit into chicken salad. But most smart math people don't think they can do it, especially with competitors like Netflix breathing down and YouTube breathing down their neck. Your thoughts?

51:02Scott Galloway:Well, I think I've been consistent on this. The biggest losers are the creative community. They don't realize it. I don't know, half a million of them just got lined up and shot. I mean, the amount of AI slop we're going to see come out of Paramount and Warner trying to pass for, you know, great breakthrough content. It's just going to be, like I said, you know, in space, no one can hear you scream. Oh, trust me, you're going to hear a lot of people scream. and the biggest winner, hands down. And I told Ted this. I said, if you walk from this, you realize your stock's going to go up 10%. I was wrong.

51:42Scott Galloway:In the last five days, the stock's up 30%.

51:45Kara Swisher:Yeah, back to other levels, yeah. Okay, so let's look at it this way.

51:50Scott Galloway:They, quote unquote, technically save$120 billion by not acquiring it. And their stock's up$100 billion. Cara, they could go by Disney right now for walking from Warner Brothers. And if I were them and I was Ted and I'd be pissed off, I'd be firing up my lobbyists and my lawyers and be like, delay an obvious game, make it create so much havoc for this deal to close. And by the way, every studio, every crib, they're all going to want to go to work for one place. okay do I want if I'm pitching I just had my latest book option for a series and for a documentary which means absolutely nothing I've figured out in Hollywood your man

52:32Kara Swisher:notes on being a man yeah for

52:34Scott Galloway:an original scripted series and a documentary anyways think of it as an R-rated wonder years is how I've been pitching it

52:40Kara Swisher:who's playing me Hervé Villach very funny

52:47Scott Galloway:Hervé Villach and a little tiny Subaru Chalamet I say Chalamet, Tracy. With a puppy German shepherd.

52:53Kara Swisher:No, Chalamet can work. He looks like a teenage boy too.

52:55Scott Galloway:Anyways. Chalamet. So these guys, the amount of money, let me go this way. Say you're in the creative community and you have the hottest script or you're the hottest actor and you have offers from the Paramount Studio, from Warner, or for Netflix, who are you absolutely going to pick? Netflix. Oh, my God. They're going to.

53:20Kara Swisher:Every day of the week and twice on Sunday. They look like heroes. You all hated Netflix. Now you're going to love them. It's really. And by the way, when the Democrats come into power, that's going to be good for them, too.

53:31Scott Galloway:HBO just lost 30 % of its value because HBO's asset was it always was able to punch above its weight class. It did$2 billion in content relative to Netflix's$18 billion. But if there was a show people were talking about around the water cooler, whether it was Girls or Euphoria or Game of Thrones or Succession, it usually was HBO. Because HBO's culture and ability, when, I'm talking a lot about me, my favorite subject, but when we pitched my big tech series, everybody, all the creatives and all the stars, they all wanted to go with HBO. They love Netflix, but if we had our choice, we would have gone with HBO.

54:08Scott Galloway:Guess what? That just changed overnight. Completely.

54:11Kara Swisher:I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have to say, I've got some shows. I have no interest.

54:15Scott Galloway:What, so they can figure out how to produce it for a third of the budget using AI?

54:19Kara Swisher:Yeah, fuck you. And also, one of the things that's interesting is that there is an interesting movement. And also, I mean, I think the CNN part of it is a smaller part of it. It still is going to be a lot of news, right? It's still because it's CNN, the merger. And they've already made a mess of CBS, but they're going to make a bigger mess of CNN. I have heard from so many HBO people that are like, fuck, like fuck was everything in every, like a dozen HBO people. CNN is losing its ever loving mind, right? As they should. And they're like, they're like, what do we do, Kara? And I'm like, I don't know.

54:55Kara Swisher:I'm not going to be here. So it's not like, I was like, I don't know what to tell you, but you know, I wouldn't work for those hacks. But one of the things that That's interesting is the idea that Netflix takes a little bit of this money and hires like Anderson Cooper and the best of them and creates a little new service. Like they should. Like a really good one.

55:18Scott Galloway:I talked to the woman who runs content at Netflix and I said, I have an idea. Bella?

55:22Kara Swisher:Bella.

55:22Scott Galloway:Bella. Yeah. Start something called The Hour and hire the two-thirds of the people from 60 Minutes that would like to leave right now and have a show, a weekly show called The Hour or 59 Minutes.

55:34Kara Swisher:I offer. I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and who's not. I like I.

55:37Scott Galloway:You don't think all of those people are looking for a way to get off the. Yeah. Get on the last helicopter out of Saigon right now.

55:42Kara Swisher:Yeah. And a lot of them want to be entrepreneurial. It's really interesting. They do see the need to change out. I mean, obviously, the economics of a lot of broadcast and cable television is out of whack with the revenues, clearly. All through the industry, by the way.

55:57Scott Galloway:Netflix is up 30 percent. Netflix.

55:59Kara Swisher:Netflix should do that.

55:59Scott Galloway:The market has decided that Netflix is worth$100 billion more without Warner Brothers.

56:07Kara Swisher:They could spend a very little amount of money putting together a really interesting news offering. At the same time, you know, as obviously CBS is going right in a really weak sauce way. It's really kind of wimpy right and stupid right. But, I mean, if you're going to be right, go all the way to Fox. That's my feeling. And it's an ever-dying audience, by the way. And, I mean, my mom is an average listener, essentially. She's 92. But one of the things that I think will help is—

56:35Scott Galloway:Fox is doing really well, actually. Yeah, it has.

56:36Kara Swisher:That's right. You're not catching Fox, by the way.

56:38Scott Galloway:Here's a crazy stat. Supposedly more moderates watch Fox than CNN right now.

56:42Kara Swisher:Well, I'm not surprised. Anyway, one of the—because the news part is—I mean, like Jennifer, and there's several people who are quite good over there. But there's a lot of great people at CNN. And let me be clear. There's a lot of great reporters throughout that organization, and they do a great job. People tend to focus on Scott Jennings at night when there's lots of people.

57:01Scott Galloway:You mean I feel stupider with Abby Phillips?

57:04Kara Swisher:Okay, stop, stop. Scott Jennings is the problem over there.

57:08Scott Galloway:No, CNN is the problem for putting him on and having crossfire.

57:11Kara Swisher:That show is – but I'm saying there's a lot more to CNN than that show. So it gets a lot of attention. But one of the things that I think is interesting is it really opens up an opportunity for MS now because they're by themselves over there on the left. Like, it's a great business, right? Like, it's just, it's sort of like the fox of the left. And so they have a huge opportunity, seems to me.

57:34Scott Galloway:You are in love with traditional media. I'm not. You are in love with traditional media. This is who it's an opportunity for. It's an opportunity.

57:40Kara Swisher:I'm saying a small opportunity.

57:41Scott Galloway:For Bill Cohen and Ben Thompson and Kara Swisher.

57:45Kara Swisher:I know that.

57:46Scott Galloway:You are about to see a massive diffusion of power from these industrial brands.

57:50Kara Swisher:It's already happened.

57:51Scott Galloway:The means of production is way too expensive to all these little media company startups and stub stacks and podcasts.

57:57Kara Swisher:I agree.

57:57Scott Galloway:And newsletters and all this hand-wringing that, oh no, the Washington Post can't go away, doesn't fucking matter, folks. Those people are going to find their own little niche media companies and they're going to punch above their weight class and they're not going to be saddled by the blood sugar level of a guy on human growth hormone in St. Bart's.

58:15Kara Swisher:I get it. I just think MS now by itself being, I think CNN should have been independent, would have given an opportunity to be innovative. They have an opportunity to be innovative. They do. They absolutely do. And so that's a good thing for them because they're all by themselves over there.

58:29Scott Galloway:This is the best use of CNN. We have an iconic, popular Gavin Newsom, and he stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors. Dana Bash should make a great vice president. Yes.

58:40Kara Swisher:Dana does a great job. There's a lot of really great—there's amazing people over there.

58:43Scott Galloway:Michael Smirconish, I think he could be secretary of defense. There's a lot.

58:47Kara Swisher:Anderson, I think, does a good job every single—Kaitlyn Collins, I have so much admiration for her.

58:52Scott Galloway:She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay. Literally, I can pull together a cabinet that looks like the fucking Kennedy administration from CNN anchors.

59:02Kara Swisher:Well, and it would be so much higher than Pete Egg said on any day of the week. Well, think about it.

59:05Scott Galloway:Janine Pirro, that's, I mean, look who we're competing. I am down for networks as cabinets at this point. I think the CNN people are so impressive. But they're all about to, and they've been doing this the last two years. I'm thinking about starting a podcast because they're having the uncomfortable conversation. where I used to make$7 million a year and they've offered me two.

59:24Kara Swisher:Yeah, have you had every conversation with all of them? Not just CNN, it's throughout the media. Oh, it's everywhere. It's everywhere. It's all the media people. I could have a business.

59:32Scott Galloway:People anchor off the most money they've ever made and think that's what I'm worth. No one ever thinks to themselves, wow, I'm overpaid right now. I can prove to you statistically at any moment in time, there's a 50 % chance you are overpaid right now relative to the market.

59:44Kara Swisher:I'm not favoring media. I just think it's, I always see it as an opportunity. I always see it as an, like you can still do well. It's a good business. It makes a lot of profits. You could do well here. And it gives an opportunity for MSNOW to have a lane all to itself. And I think that's always a good thing. Always a good thing.

1:00:03Scott Galloway:Who's MSNOW's star? Is it Rachel? She's only one day a week, though. Rachel.

1:00:06Kara Swisher:There's a whole bunch of there. But let me say, Rebecca Cutler, Stephanie. There's a whole bunch of people over there that are great.

1:00:11Scott Galloway:They're very talented.

1:00:12Kara Swisher:And they're hiring a lot of great reporters. And Rebecca Cutler, who you don't know about, is amazing. Like, she's at CNN. She hired me at CNN+. She did at the Plu. And, you know, I think there's lots of opportunity. And I think the Ellisons will bollocks it. And coming to you soon, a Kara Swisher docuseries. Kara Swisher wants to live forever on CNN. No, I'm kidding. That's coming soon.

1:00:35Scott Galloway:I just hope it closes before then so I can see a photo with you and Larry Ellison.

1:00:39Kara Swisher:No, it's not. Listen, it's going to be soon. I will be out. I'll have removed my things from the closet long before then.

1:00:46Scott Galloway:I'm just so curious who they're going to ask to run.

1:00:49Kara Swisher:Let me just tell you, everybody. Scott Galloway is in the second episode, and he's looking fine. And he looks, it's an adorable Kara and Scott moment.

1:01:00Scott Galloway:That'll save them. That's their answer.

1:01:03Kara Swisher:It's actually a really good show, I have to say.

1:01:05Scott Galloway:You have to say your show's really good. You're going to love this. I did a podcast today, and they asked me, what was my favorite moment with Kara Swisher? And I said, when you and your wife came down for the weekend and I let you pick the streaming media thing we were going to watch, big fucking mistake. You pick some like art heists from PBS. They're like the history of great museum deaths or something. I'm like, oh, fuck.

1:01:29Kara Swisher:Oh, that was a good show.

1:01:30Scott Galloway:And we're sitting there and we're all eating. And over comes white LeBron, your 14-year-old monster. And he sits down. And I'm not exaggerating. We all popped eight inches into the air. Yeah, it's true.

1:01:43Kara Swisher:He's bigger than ever.

1:01:45Scott Galloway:And also the next day you were scolding him like a mother does. And you were literally, your neck was craning so hard up at him. It was like watching Billy. They listen to mama. It was like watching Billy Barty lecture Shaquille O 'Neal. I said to my son, I'm like, look at this. Look at this. Look what's going on over there.

1:02:02Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:02:03Scott Galloway:Anyways, that's my favorite moment.

1:02:05Kara Swisher:I should parent everybody.

1:02:07Scott Galloway:I think you kind of do.

1:02:08Kara Swisher:Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, wins and fails.

1:02:19Kara Swisher:Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. I can go first if you want. Go first. I have to say, I talk too much about Hedder Robby, but I thought Connor's story did a great job on SNL this week. I usually fall off my— Oh, my God, that's my win. What? What? That's my win. You take it. You take it. Let's discuss it. Go ahead. Go ahead. Take it.

1:02:39Scott Galloway:I feel that SNL thread, my win was SNL. I thought they thread the needle perfectly.

1:02:47Kara Swisher:This week, yeah. Not every week.

1:02:49Scott Galloway:They honored the women's team, but at the same time, I think it's bullshit all the shit the men have taken.

1:02:55Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:02:56Scott Galloway:I think for them to, wouldn't it have been great? If you listen to the video, this was President Trump taking everyone back to the 50s and mocking women. That is not what we need. We need a more evolved sense of masculinity that celebrates great athletic performance. By the way, eight of 12 medals from the women. The goal, the overtime goal, in my opinion, one of the great moments in sports history of the women's hockey team. They threaded the needle perfectly because I do think the men got more shit than they deserved.

1:03:23Kara Swisher:They got invaded by Kash Patel. Let's blame Kash Patel here.

1:03:27Scott Galloway:That's exactly right. That's right. What are they going to do? What are they going to do?

1:03:30Kara Swisher:I agree.

1:03:31Scott Galloway:Anyways, and if you listen to the tape when Trump made those wildly sexist remarks, there were one or two men's hockey players saying two for two. They were trying to acknowledge that both the men's and the women's team. And SNL did it perfectly. They did. They didn't virtue signal and say, yeah, women and oh, that was bad males. They made some jokes.

1:03:52Kara Swisher:They had the women make the jokes and the men were okay too. And the men were there to take it. Take it. And they were fine with it.

1:03:57Scott Galloway:They thread the needle perfectly.

1:03:59Kara Swisher:And it was critical that Connor's story was standing in between them. I have to say, he's such a likable person and such a talented physical comedian. Like, his stripper, who got in a car accident, was so fucking funny. Like, I don't believe they pulled that one off. I have to say, he is such a delightful. He's very talented. He's a delightful figure. Both of them are.

1:04:20Scott Galloway:I'm telling you, season two, like, scorching hot rivalry with the women's hockey team. Daddy's here for it. Yes, yes.

1:04:27Kara Swisher:Yes. And I thought the women handled it well.

1:04:30Scott Galloway:So well done. The writers at SNL are geniuses.

1:04:33Kara Swisher:And you know who sucks? Cash fucking Patel. Why are you invading these guys win? Like as if you reflected fucking glory, you tubby loser. Like, forget it. Like, how dare you? Now I've focused only on Cash Patel. I really am. I think he's just the worst. So my fail is, I think, this situation with Anthropica. I think it has to be. We're the same person today.

1:04:58Scott Galloway:We're literally the same person. Okay, all right.

1:05:00Kara Swisher:I think they are bullies. I think they use Twitter as a way to attack people in a way that's really unprofessional. You can have differences. And everyone's always grabbing for power and grabbing for money. I get it. It's gone on since the beginning of time. But the way you're doing this is all about your insecure childhood traumas that are being writ large on the rest of us. This is not professional. You do not have to like do this. And they do it as like keyboard warriors on Twitter. I got a text from someone, I'm not going to say who it was, who said, you got, the world is happening on Twitter.

1:05:35Kara Swisher:You got to be back here. And I was like, I'm not going back to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making children sexual. I was like, the world is not happening on Twitter. The world is happening in the world. You guys, like you need to fucking get out of your own fucking way. you have to understand that what you're doing is damaging to most people and that we don't want to hear about all your beefs and all your traumas and everything else. If Anthropic doesn't want to do business with you, just let's move along. Let's just move along. And I'm sorry you're not as successful as Dario Amodi or smart Emil Michael, but you're going to have to live with it as being an unctuous toady to the powerful.

1:06:19Kara Swisher:Stop it. Like that to me is the loss. You go ahead.

1:06:22Scott Galloway:Mine's exactly the same, but I'll look at it through a shareholder lens. I'm looking at a company called Mercado Libre, which is the Amazon of Argentina. And one of the reasons I'm looking at it is that effectively when the BRICS were in vogue, you know, the price earnings multiple of certain Latin American markets was about 20. and it went down to eight because all the flows went into U.S. tech stocks, which meant you could increase your earnings two and a half fold over 10 years and your stock was flat. You can't outrun multiple contraction in a market as a stock and it's all under the same auspices of market dynamics, Trump, individual performance.

1:07:00Scott Galloway:At the same time, it's almost impossible to be wrong when you have multiple expansion. It has been American investors, you know, we all think we're geniuses right now in our 401ks. we have had multiple expansions since 2008, and we're about to experience multiple contraction, and we're already experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23 markets last year on a dollar-adjusted basis. Everyone else outperformed us. And one of the reasons, people don't realize we have just lost trillions of dollars when the Pentagon starts picking winners and losers. If Anderil, which makes weapons, decides that, yeah, we are going to figure out, we're going to use Silicon Valley ethos to help the Defense Department kill people and people freak out, well, guess what?

1:07:39Scott Galloway:They're allowed to do that. It's not illegal. They're allowed to do that. When Palantir says, we're going to work with the government of Israel to track down terrorists and kill them in their homes, you may find that distasteful. It's legal. They're allowed to do it. And Anthropic, when they decide we don't want to provide our services or data for what we feel is the surveilling, the illegal surveillance of U.S. citizens, they too are allowed to do that. And when governments start playing political favorites in markets, the rule of law is no longer applied and your multiple on companies, your price earnings multiple begins to contract.

1:08:17Scott Galloway:Freedoms and systemic laws and a separation between government and business results in higher price earnings multiples and greater increases in 401ks and your ability to retire earlier. And this bullshit Pentagon stationary war on Anthropic is going to cost U.S. investors trillions of dollars as people decide to go where they know who they're waking up next to, that they can invest in a company and they do the assessment based on the laws at hand. Is this company succeeding or failing based on the current laws. And they don't have to try and guess what the one-off individual laws will be in a few months.

1:08:56Scott Galloway:So I have the same win and same fail, but I look at it as an investor. I'm now looking at markets. People get angry at the autocracies in China or in the Gulf. They have a huge respect for the domain or the sovereignty of investors and having uniform laws that apply to everyone equally. And we are now becoming that nation where we decide which companies win and lose. And all that means is RPE, we're about to experience multiple contraction, which you cannot outrun.

1:09:27Kara Swisher:Not for long. Let me just say, you feel it. Can't you feel it? And speaking of feeling it, Scott, this has been a great discussion. I have to say, I was a little worried this morning. I was also tired, but this has been a really great discussion about these things and disagreeing in a really civil way. But let me say, it's going to continue because we're going, where are we going, Scott Galloway? on Sunday.

1:09:47Scott Galloway:Resist and unsubscribe. Big announcement, full-time resources. And by the way, Sam, it's not going to be a good night for you. No, it's not going to be. And guess which Sam we're talking about? 48 hours. You put Kara Swisher on an invite and 48 hours we sold out to Pantages, a thousand seats.

1:10:05Kara Swisher:Both of us. We sold it out. And we want to thank Tane Danger for doing an amazing job for us in Minneapolis.

1:10:09Scott Galloway:He's my favorite porn star.

1:10:10Kara Swisher:He's your favorite porn star and he's an amazing. Tane Danger. And our staff who's working really hard. We sold out right away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We have special guests. We are very excited. And we will talk about the next move. Scott will. Scott, who's the president of Resistant Unsubscribe. I'm just a helper. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to PIVOT. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

1:10:42Kara Swisher:We'll be back on Friday.

1:10:43Scott Galloway:Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kate Gallagher. Ernie Intertide engineered this episode. Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to Dubros, Misiveria, and Dan Chalon, and Shaka Rez, Vox Media's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Kara, have a great rest of the week.

1:11:15Scott Galloway:As AI reshapes professional services, law firms and in-house teams are rethinking how complex work gets done. Harvey AI is an AI platform built specifically for legal practice, helping teams analyze documents, draft with precision, and collaborate securely across matters. Today, more than half of the Amlaw 100 use Harvey. Learn more at Harvey.ai.