Joe Rogan’s Trump Jabs, Blockbuster Tech Earnings, and Another Tariff Deadline

23:23So it's interesting. I'm not sure if Rogan's disapproval carries much weight as this endorsement did. I don't know. What do you think of this? I think it's actually, you know, it's sort of late, you know, Joe. Of course he was going to do this. He seems kind of fatuous to what Trump is, but I don't know. What do you think? I don't know. I think that, I do think it matters. A lot of, when I speak to young men, I feel like a lot of times they're reading back a script from Joe Rogan. I think arguably Joe Rogan in terms of young men has more influence because he's seen as an honest broker. I think the most, I don't want to call it dangerous thing about Joe Rogan, but I think Joe is like, it's not an act.

24:07I think Joe is genuinely, he's not reading, he's not Fox News reading from a teleprompter saying smart manic has been weaponized by Hugo Chavez because we told you to say it. I think what he's saying, he believes. And also the manosphere, if you will, or, of male-dominated or male-centric podcasts, there has been a significant tide shift. Shane Gillis, Andrew Schultz. Andrew Schultz, all these guys who, quite frankly, if you were to point to one person who potentially put Trump in office, it would be number one would be Musk, right? Quarter of a billion dollars, great platform, very smart. and then probably number two is Joe Rogan.

24:50And the stat I love is that if you want to talk about how brilliant the Trump campaign was and how non-brilliant the Harris campaign was, and it kind of reminds me of Mondani and Cuomo, Trump flew right into the manosphere, which was not only good for positioning, but by going on Rogan that one time with 40 million YouTube videos or views and 15 million audio downloads, for Harris to get the same level of exposure, she would have needed to go on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox every night for three hours for two weeks. So quite frankly, whatever, unless it was going to take her two weeks to get down and back from Austin, she should have done it.

25:26So these guys carry a ton of weight and there has been a real significant shift. It's the combo of all of them. It's not just Rogan. I mean, Schultz has been particularly vehement about it. And Shane Gillis is mocking him, making fun of him. Then you have the South Park guys on his ass because they're considered pretty right in the middle. Like, not in the middle, but they don't beholden to anybody. Yeah, Honey Badger don't give a shit. Yeah, exactly. They go after everybody. But what do you think? I mean, it's interesting because he's moved from the Epstein things, which I think animates a lot of these people.

25:59A lot of them are angry about the Epstein stuff. And now it's moved to colleges and deportations, which they're like, why can't these, you know, kids say what they want as long as they're not violent? I think Rogan said that. He's like, if they're not violent, they can write whatever they want. So that is consistent with their thing of the left quashing them. But now they're applying it to Trump. Yeah. Again, I thought of you last night. There was another weapon of mass distraction yesterday, something ridiculous, something outrageous. What was it yesterday? Oh, it'll come to me. Giving Diddy a pardon?

26:34Oh, exactly. Yeah. Megyn Kelly's mad about that. Giving Diddy a pardon. Okay. that's what the president should be focused on right now. I mean, I'm telling you, every day. Again, we got it. The moment he does this shit, you got to start referring to Diddy as Diddy Epstein. You just got to make, you got to let him know. Folks, we're not falling for it. If you're sawing your assistant in half and expect us to look over here, we're not going to do it. We want to see you pulling the rabbit, you know, out of your coat pocket, not out of the hat. But yeah, I don't. And a lot of people aren't going along.

27:05Like Rogan is pretty, has been pretty Trump positive. and he's doing it a lot. I'm interested to see what he'll move on to of something he doesn't like, right? But there's quite a lot. It's not just one thing. And as I said at the beginning of this whole thing, and let me tell you, I think Elon started this, this Epstein thing. He absolutely, by that tweet he did. But I think Epstein is at the core, as I said, the pillar. But then there's all these other things that are consistent with what they said before, which was, why can't those students say what they want? Even if I don't agree with those students, Why can't humor, right, when he's threatening all kinds of entertainers and stuff like that?

27:43Why can't they say what they want, even if they're left? And I think they are consistent in that. They should be consistent in that regard. They should, if they say people should say what they want, it should apply to the left and the right, right? And so that was interesting when Rogan did that. I'm curious what he'll do next. Well, they can claim, and actually I think it's good for the medium. them, no matter what happens, CNN and Fox, you kind of have a sense for which way they're going to go on every story. These guys, to their credit, are saying, I was wrong. I do not support these policies.

28:16A couple of them have said, I regret voting for them. I think the immigration raids really rattled a lot of them because I think a lot of them know, are exposed to it, see how cruel it is. The thing is, I don't get is it's ineffective. There were actually more people being deported during the Obama administration that are being deported right now. They just worked more cohesively or seamlessly with local law enforcement. And this just feels like, okay. Well, because they are going after people who are like gardeners and Home Depot a lot. They're kind of claddish about it in a lot of ways. They're doing it so performatively with the masks and the whole fear and Christy Nome.

28:54Did you see that picture of Christine Hume riding around on a horse with her alleged paramour, Corey Lewandowski? I didn't. I'd like to, though. In Argentina. They're just riding horses around. It's like, what are you doing there? What are you doing? She's in Argentina riding horses? Something like that. I'm here for it. I think I've decided Christine Hume's super hot. Oh, my God. Her whole ice Barbie is so strange. She's gone from president from that. I'm trying to figure out where this is going. It's straight to the White House or straight to Cinemax. Either way, I'm here for it. A reality show, right?

29:28I'm sort of like, what are you doing, girl? Like Sarah Palin in Alaska? Oh, that didn't work out so well for her, did it? That's not going to work out for you, Christy, because you're a lady. It doesn't work out for ladies. I'm sorry. It just doesn't. It's not going to work out. Anyway, speaking of ladies, and she's not a lady, Jelaine Maxwell has offered to testify before Congress in the Epstein situation, but only with conditions that include immunity. And on Tuesday, President Trump told reporters that Epstein stole Virginia Gaffray, one of Epstein's accusers from Mar-a-Lago, who died by suicide in April following a period of serious health issues.

30:03She was the 17-year-old that Prince Andrew allegedly abused, paid off, I think. Anyway, she was one of the more outspoken ones and had a very tragic life. She worked in Mar-a-Lago in the spa, and Jelaine Maxwell got her to come over to his house. And President Trump keeps changing his story of why he got in a fight with Epstein. First, it was because he, some real estate thing. Then it was because they found him creepy. And now it's because he stole, stole. The use of the word stole around sex trafficking sort of says it all to me, or I didn't have the privilege to go down to Epstein Island, which was a crazy word to use.

30:44He just continues every day to dig himself into another hole and keep this story alive. Like I said, it's almost suicidal. It's weird on his behalf to continue to. As for Jelaine Maxwell, she deserves nothing. I said on CNN that, you know, what does she want, cocoa in a warm blanket? Give me a break. She needs to stay in jail. If they give her immunity or diddy immunity, it will continue. this story for Trump will never go away. And it's already not going away. Yeah. He's really got, and that's why he just comes across as so guilty here, because he's got such weird judgment. He said that he wishes Jelaine Maxwell.

31:26He didn't wish any of the victims well. He wishes her well. And then he says, oh, why he's disappointed or offended by Epstein, he took his employees. Yeah. I was like, okay, so that's why you don't want to be associated with this guy. Were any of his other activities that were reported and widely covered, did any of those offend you? Problematic. No, it was that he hired his valet under him from Mar-a-Lago. It's like, okay, you're kind of missing the forest for the trees here. So he continues to act like someone advised him to try and act as guilty as possible. The idea of what effectively would be a pardon, which is what immunity would offer almost.

32:12It's a different... Clemency. For Ghislaine Maxwell, it's like, well, again, why are they speaking to her now? The only reason, the only motivation to speak to her now is the desire to clear the president. There's always been a desire to find out what exactly happened here and who was involved. and if you weren't able to get that information and offer whatever it is you needed to offer back then, then the only reason that you logically can derive from this or deduct from this is that you're hoping she will say something to exonerate the president because the only thing that's happened is there's new heat on the president.

32:49So I don't, the whole thing really stinks. It won't exonerate him now because it looks like he's doing that, right? So it'll look like it fixes in. From a perception standpoint. So it's weird. I find this the strangest thing. I actually believe when everything the White House says, I don't believe what he say. I kind of believe that's what he thinks. He's mad at him for taking, stealing a person who works in the spa. That's what he doesn't care about these women. He doesn't care about the abuses. He cares that someone stole his employee. That's I actually believe that when he says that. I don't think he's making it up in that.

33:24I think this addled old man thinks that he's like all pissed that he stole one of his employees. Yeah, I don't see that. Yeah, the whole thing is just something. I have to say a lot of people who didn't think it was a conspiracy theory or just were not really paying attention to it many years on. Oh, that's annoying. Oh, shit. I forgot to call 911 back and tell me you're not intruders. I know you. There's a strange lady rifling through my things and mumbling to herself. I'm taking that buttery coat. That buttery coat of yours. I have, somebody has slaughtered several dozen animals who were llamas that were only raised on like Japanese Wagyu rice.

34:03I went through that skin phase where I couldn't buy enough like leather coats. Anyways, have at it. Yeah, they're very nice. I may take one, but it's sort of warm out. If you borrow my coat, it means I then borrow your car and we're going steady. That means we're going steady. We are going steady. Oh, my first girlfriend, Melanie Kagan. Which you wore your coat. Oh, yeah. And she, my Letterman coat. I was a letterman, a D1 athlete. This is college? College. You know it, baby. Do you have any clothes from people? I still have clothes from people I went out with. Yeah. I mean, David Hasselhoff still has a few of my loose sweatshirts, but that's another story, Kara.

34:40That's another story. That was a loving relationship. Yeah. So beautiful and poignant. Paul Giamatti has a big bottle of my moisturizer. I don't, don't, don't force me to give details. He's such a nice guy. I would like him up for you. That was pretty good. Two random names. I love your wife. So I don't, but if you weren't married, I'd love you to go out with Paul Giamatti. I think that would be good for you. Oh, wait, hold on. Hold on. Let's unpack that. The person you have decided is for me is Paul Giamatti. Oh my God. I totally like to hang out with Paul Giamatti. I'm totally down if Paul Giamatti can be Emily Ratajkowski.

35:14Has she asked about me? No. Seriously. She has asked about me, right? No, she has not. She's totally asked about me. Nobody who looks like Emily Ratajkowski. You know who asked me about you? Let me tell you. Oh, here we go. Men. Sure, Michael asked me about you. The guy you debated in Detroit. This lovely guy, Chuck Rocha, I was on a panel with asked me. Men asked me about you. You have such a man crush on you. It's disturbing on men. Well, tell them to swing by. Why shouldn't they come by my apartment? This is what women say to me, including very attractive women. They're always like, oh, Scott.

35:47Oh, God. That's all they say. Just keep them away from me. They don't say, oh, Scott, I want to fuck him. It's, oh, Scott. No, it's literally like I need to, that reminds me, I need new mace cartridges. Yeah. But men are like, he's so dreamy. Oh, my God. I love that, Scott. He's so dreamy. You bring up my name, and like the next sentence for women are like, you know, I'm thinking about like just having sex with women from this point forward. I don't think we need men. It's so true. I don't think we need men. It is so true. I haven't had a woman say she's hot for you. Men I have heard say she's hot.

36:18Anyway, Paul Giamatti, call us. That's something. That's something. No, it's not done. All right, we have to move on. Tariffs, tariffs, and Jerome Powell has a set, let's just say. At the time of this taping, President Trump says he will not extend the latest August 1st tariff deadline. The president reportedly plans to sign new executive orders after we tape imposing higher tariffs on several countries that have not reached deals. The administration has managed to get only eight deals done in 120 days, but with a number of partners. In the last few days, Trump has announced a 25 percent tariff on India with a penalty for over-alliance on Russian energy and military equipment.

36:52It's said that South Korea has made an offer to buy down the 25 percent it faces. He's interested in hearing it. One of the things that's interesting is whether he's going to extend that deadline. Fear not, everyone. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, who seems to be living his best life as Trump's favorite person, told Corporate America, it's, quote, not the end of the world if these tariffs are on for days or weeks. Meanwhile, the Fed held interest rates steady, as I said, on Wednesday for the fifth meeting in a row, as the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy grew at a stronger than expected pace.

37:21But there's lots of troubling things in the report, actually. And now inflation today just ticked up a little bit. And so Powell seems to be waiting until September to see the impact of the tariffs, which I think is probably a good thing to do. So what do you think about what's happening? In some cases, some of the countries are saying what he said happened, didn't happen. Obviously, a lot of these numbers are going to be paid by American consumers in the end. Any thoughts on this? The only thing you know you're going to get, first off, none of them, I hate it, they call them deals. They're all frameworks that they can put out a press release.

37:56And in the press release is some giant number that is unenforceable, specifically the amount of money they're going to invest in the U.S. Yes. Thank you. So I hope that I hope we just get through this, get on it. You know, I saw someone on Bill Maher, a very intelligent woman, saying that tariffs. She's like, I said to Bill, why do you want? Why are you against making American workers more productive? They're kind of like wrapping themselves in the flag. And folks, let me just remind you that free trade or tariffs are inversely correlated to economic growth. They're telling American consumers that they have to pay more money for a Japanese car such that they get a shitty car for$40 ,000 instead of a great car for$30 ,000.

38:34That not only makes us consumers less prosperous, you know, paying more for shittier things, but it also makes us less competitive because we don't need to compete. So, and I'm going to talk about this in my prediction, but Figma, this design company, is going public. and it was supposed to be acquired by Adobe. The fact that it wasn't because the U regulators blocked the deal is going to make that market much more competitive. And so when all you're doing is making things less competitive in the short run for companies because they have the advantage of taxing foreign companies, you make our companies less competitive, you make our consumers less prosperous, and it has been shown that over the medium and long term, it decreases productivity.

39:16And the GDP numbers were really strange. I don't know if you saw those, but the GDP numbers, it was so this was the strangest thing that came out of the gdp numbers you subtract or you add to gdp or excuse me you subtract out of gdp imports because that is economic activity or production that took place offshore uh imports were down 30 percent year on year like 34 percent i mean it's not even that the the prices are too high or that american consumers don't want them but foreign companies that build businesses importing products into the u.s making our lives more prosperous and our products less expensive and our better quality of life have kind of stopped because they don't know how to plan.

39:54They don't even know how to price stuff. They don't know what it means. They don't know what the demand's going to be because they don't know what these tariffs are. So I'm at the part of the program now where I just hope for the purposes of just getting back to work, that they get a quote unquote, a bunch of these frameworks done. And all these nations are learning. Yeah. Agree to the tariff and then announce a trillion dollars in investment in the United States over the next 10 years, which is not enforceable. That's what happened with all the tech companies. Remember, they were like, we're going to invest.

40:25And then they never did. That's the thing. And so Trump can tout a deal. One of the things Richard Quest, who I like on CNN, was so frustrated. Oh, Teddy? That guy? I love him. Yeah, that guy. He's great. But the point he was making is the 15 % is getting eaten by these companies. They're just going to take the cost. and you'll see numbers like Ford or GM. They had the first time since 2023, Ford is losing money, which it wasn't. It was doing well. They'll eat the cost because it's low enough, but eventually they won't. Second thing is consumers will pay for this in the end, like not the money that's going to the treasury.

41:01And it just, it literally, and he's like, these are, he said the same thing you do. These are frameworks. They are not the thing. And so you'll never, how are you going to know if they're going to invest? Like just saying they're going to invest, they will not do it. And so it's all nonsense and kind of unnecessary shaking of the economy for no reason. Now, that's not to say that being tough on people or sort of playing game of chicken with some of these countries where it's not asynchronous trade is not a bad idea, right? Like we always say that. But one of the things that's important to understand is that it's not in place.

41:38It's just not like a lot of things with Trump. It's a lot of vaporware. And that is the real problem. And so when Jerome Powell comes in and says, we're just going to wait about cutting interest rates. We'll see what happens. We'll see what happens. That's the adult thing to do. And, of course, Trump attacks him because it doesn't work without an acquiescent Fed, right, to try to feed this thing. And he's not going to be acquiescent. And interestingly, with the Fed meeting, two of the Trump-appointed people voted against keeping it the same rate. So now it's totally politicized, which are good economic decisions.

42:16Powell, this guy has a set. He really does. Oh, yeah. He's doing exactly what you're supposed to do when you have a Supreme Court justice or long-tenure appointments. The reason we do that is such that we get stuck with some bad people sometimes, but the reason we do that is such that they can be independent-minded. But one of the biggest risks, I think, to our economy is, so the definition of robust, a robust industry is, for example, the fast food industry. If McDonald's goes out of business, you're still going to be able to get$1 ,800 of calories for five bucks, right? Because there's a ton of competitors.

42:52If Jamie Dimon called the president right now and said, oh, we had some rogue trader, he levered up, got past our compliance, and if I don't get$500 billion by tomorrow, we're out of business, that existential or systemic risk, because JP Morgan is so big now and so powerful, they have become, in my opinion, too big to fail. That makes an economy weaker. We now have seven companies that represent over 40 % of the S &P's value, of which represents 50 % of the world's value. So you have essentially 20 % of the market cap of the world is tied up in seven companies. And what these tariffs are doing, there's so many second order effects here is that, okay, you know, who's not affected by the tariffs.

43:33You know, who's just champagne and cocaine right now? Tech companies. Yeah, we will talk about that. But if you're an investor, are you going to invest in the 70 % of companies in the S &P 500 that are subject to some sort of tariff risk. You're like, oh, fuck it, just buy Meta, right? I don't know how to predict this. I don't know how to model against it. So what do we have? Even greater concentration of wealth and of market cap in an increasingly small group of companies and people. Who will not be able to deliver in the end, actually. They can't keep up with the numbers. But it's like, that's the last thing.

44:09Does the president really think it's a good economic policy to basically transfer market capitalization from Dow Chemical and Ford to Alphabet and Meta. Is that what we need right now? That's not, these companies - It's the opposite. It's the opposite. These great American companies that are either in manufacturing or consumer products that are subject to these tariffs and subject to this insecurity and chaos, that's kind of, those are the companies, quite frankly - That is a really good point. To keep, and they tend to be, they don't pay their people as well, but they tend to employ many more people.

44:40And it's like, okay, if we were going to do any economic policy that transferred capital or advantage back from one group of companies to others for a more robust market, quite frankly, a stronger, more diverse economy, we would probably want to let some air out of the AI tech balloon and transfer it across the rest of our great American companies. That's not what they're doing. And this is effectively saying to every institutional manager, fuck it, just invest in tech. That's right. All right. Well, then actually, we'll get to that. We'll go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Microsoft and Meta's earnings, which were blockbuster.

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47:42Scott, we're back with earnings news. Microsoft just reported a blockbuster quarter with total revenue surging 18 % year over year to$76 billion. But as Microsoft doubles down on AI, the capital spending is climbing up 27%. Meta also had a huge Q2 with$47 billion in revenue, up 22%, and$18 billion in profit, up 36%. Meta's AI hiring spree also acknowledged in the earnings with compensation for technical talent in priority areas, cited as the second largest driver of cost growth. These big deals are paying all these AI researchers. How do you look at this? Are these AI bets paying off or it's advertising for Meta?

48:21It's their old business that's doing well, probably helped by AI. but not in the way Zuckerberg is spending. Any thoughts on this? They're really doubling down on AI, obviously, whether it's research costs or talent costs or just simple investment in compute. Any thoughts on these two earnings? So you forwarded me an article from the Wall Street Journal that was really fascinated. And it said, basically, this is the weirdest GDP report we've seen in a while. Because when imports go down 30%, It sort of artificially juices GDP. And if you're thinking about, I mean, these numbers, well, one, okay, so the numbers, the traditional business is just staggering.

49:05It's just, they continue to perform. They're using AI for better targeting. And I think every media planner in the world is just throwing up their arms and saying, just spend more money on Meta or on Alphabet. They also have the benefit of the market has decided that it loves CapEx in AI. The market has decided that AI is going to be enormous and whoever wins the war, it's going to be a function of brute force and that is as represented by CapEx. So Oracle, when Oracle went public, Larry Ellison, I think owned about 24%. He now owns closer to 41%. Well, how is that possible? They would use their cash flow to buy back shares, thereby decreasing the amount of shares and increasing the relative ownership of people who own shares.

49:49Except about two years ago, he decided, no, it's now a capital war in AI. We need to be a distant number two of infrastructure to NVIDIA. We're going to massively spend in CapEx. Arguably, that was one of the better business decisions of the last 10 years. And Larry Ellison, you want to talk about Elephants Can Dance, is now the second wealthiest person in the world. And the most crazy stat from that article, and I still can't believe it's true, but it's stated in that article that there was more spending last quarter on AI investments than there was consumer spending. So think about this. 355 million people in the U.S., everything they're spending money on, their Netflix, their Starbucks, going to see F1, all consumer spending was less than the investments in AI.

50:41I mean, my God, that is - I know. The numbers are that massive. That is just staggering. But Meta up 12 % in pre-market earnings beat, a massive earnings beat, 714 versus 589. revenue of 47.5 billion, expected 44.8, a 22 % year on year. And one of the things that was so impressive is they grew their customer, they grew their customer base or their users by 6%, which may not sound like a lot, but when your base is 3.5 billion, that's - There's no other game in town. There's no other game in town. They added the population of Brazil to their user base year on year. And in addition, the market loves this capex they their capex is spending was 17 billion dollars by the way that's double what it was last year it isn't and the market just loves it someone has to pay for all those those young men that they're i mean billion dollar deals they you know whatever you say about marco zuckerberg he goes for it right and even if he made a mistake with meta and the same thing over at Microsoft.

51:50The question is, when does it not pay off? Like, here you have Grok doing it, you've got Amazon doing it, Amazon just paid, even the New York Times,$20 million a year for its stuff, which is nothing, which is peanuts. You know, I just think that this is an arms race for these people, and it's being paid off in the market right now for them, and they're using that in order to, like, goose themselves, rather. And you're right, everything is being shifted over to these seven tech companies and nobody else. And so Ford and GM, who have made strides, are going to suffer. So will John Deere. So will all the other companies at the expense of these people.

52:29Now, interestingly, Zuckerberg had to put out one of his essays. These people love to put out essays and letters and vision manifestos. He loves to do this, and they're always long and badly edited. But he said AI superintelligence is now in sight. He put out this letter and video outlining his vision for it was described by one outlet as a mini manifesto. Let's listen to Mark Zuckerberg if we have to. A lot has been written about the scientific and economic advances that AI can bring. And I'm really optimistic about this. What I think an even more meaningful impact in our lives is going to come from everyone having a personal super intelligence that helps you achieve your goals, create what you want to see in the world, be a better friend and grow to become the person that you aspire to be.

53:15This vision is different from others in the industry who want to direct AI at automating all of the valuable work. Blather. This is his ticket. Grow to the person you aspire to be. Ugh. It's such, he did this before on his - That's the guy that's good. I'm going to be the person I aspire to be because of Mark Zuckerberg. One time he called me when he wrote one of these ridiculous manifestos. He called me and asked me when he was speaking to me, what I thought of it. And I said, one, you need an editor. Two, I don't understand this, this whole thing about community. He just was like, social media will bring us together.

53:48Like, such fucking, and of course it didn't. And I was, at the time, I was like, this is such bullshit. Just say you just want to make money on automating all our valuable work. I'm fine with that, right? But this is, these people just aspire to be these visionaries, and they are the smallest intellects, they have the smallest intellects and the least amount. They just love to put these things out. You know, Jamie, you don't hear this from Jamie Dimon much, right? And who is, by the way, he's been meeting with President Trump, which is a good thing. Like you don't hear this nonsense from our smarter people in our society because they don't feel the need to do.

54:25Remember when Gates put these essays, The Road Ahead? It was so nonsensical like to do this. Now, one thing Zuckerberg did say, which I agreed with, but I didn't think he had to put on such thing, is he said smart glasses will be the primary way people interact with AI. Of course, he said that because he has a smart glass business. And without them, people will be at a cognitive disadvantage. Do you think you're going to be at a cognitive disadvantage without AI glasses? Well, I mean, the idea, so these LLMs, I've always said that the LLM is just a function of who we are, but unfortunately who we are in a certain medium.

55:02And I wish the LLMs could crawl the real world because I think generally speaking in the real world, that people are lovely. But the fact is they're crawling our complexion, our personality online, and it gets really ugly, really fast. And if this AI, I've always said that companies were the closest thing I had to kids before I had kids. And that is you conceive of them, they look, smell, and feel like you. They're sort of a corporate embodiment of the personality. And if Llama, the LLM from Zuck, ends up being anything like him, it'll be emotionally stunted, brilliantly efficient, and constantly urging you to reconnect with your ex.

55:45I mean, it's just going to be such a weird... If this thing ends up... When you heard that, didn't it sound AI generated? It's like the non-human human oh it's just no because he's done it before it's like so anodyne it is so i literally had this bad memory for i was at my ex's house like spleek being on a couch and he called me and you got kicked out on the couch talk to me about that we were broken up do that too no we were no so it was just so fucking ridiculous it was like i remember going oh my god how can i get off this fucking phone call with this idiot who just thinks who just thinks he's a visionary.

56:23Like, literally, no, there's so many visionaries. Like, John Malone's recently written a book. He's a visionary. Like, he doesn't talk that much. And what he says is choice. These guys can't stop fucking talking and giving you their predictions of the future. It's, like, I want to hear it from you, Scott. I don't want to hear it from this guy. Yeah, you got to give it, he is a visionary. He really is. But his vision is a legless universe where people are cutting themselves. That's his vision. But like that he says, like, I'm here to help you achieve your goals, be a better friend and grow a person you aspire to be.

56:54It's not about automating all your valuable work, Mark. It's about automating all your valuable work. And so you can make money off of it. Could you just say that? Like, honestly, this nonsense of being Facebook is not going to make you a better friend. Facebook isn't going to allow you to create what you want to see in the world and grow to be a better person. And neither does Mark Zuckerberg care about that. And then, oh, by the way, buy my glasses. If I asked AI to give me an image of Mark Zuckerberg that defines who he is, I feel like it would be, granted, this might be the edible speaking, but it would be a guy at a really sad malt shop sucking up the world's user data through a straw.

57:37And every time he made eye contact with you, he'd apologize and look away. I just think this guy is so unusual, so strange. He is most dangerous. And to his credit, he is actually smart enough to, I think he knows, he realizes it, so he brings in really likable people, whether it's Nick Clegg or Sheryl Sandberg. But just getting back to, I just want to talk a little bit about earnings. I was so blown away by this quarter's earnings, just the amount of capex these guys are throwing at it. I think Microsoft may be the organization as of today that has invested more money, more capital in the future than any organization in history with the exception of countries during war.

58:19And by the way, it's paying off. They're up 8 % of pre-market trading. They blew away their earnings, 365 versus 337. The revenue was 76.5 billion versus 73.8 expected. Revenue was up 18 % year on year. And then its cloud-based unit, Azure, grew 39 % this year. That is just, so if Microsoft, basically, if you applied the same price to sales ratio to its cloud unit, it would be a$1 trillion business. And right now, it's a$75 billion revenue business. And they're planning to spend$30 billion on capital next quarter. That's up 50 % from the same time last year. And if it kept constant, it would work out to be$120 billion.

59:04And that means right now, the category that is getting the most capex of any category in the world is AI, and the company spending the most is Microsoft. Microsoft is right now spending more money on AI than I think almost any organization in history has spent on anything, with maybe the exception of a percentage of GDP what Britain and Russia have spent during wartime or something like this. Meta's quarter, I think, is the biggest investment by a private company in history on anything, and it's paying off. this company, these companies, I mean, it's just this tariff bullshit. These companies, while Ford is trying to figure out how many times a windshield wiper comes across or not from Canada or Mexico and how to fucking build their business and estimate it and spending all the time.

59:53Yeah, Trump is kneecapping them while these guys. Then you have these guys that are just running flat out and just killing it, just literally running away with it. But why wouldn't they kill? They have nothing in their way. They never have anything in their way. Like Ford and GM and John Deere, they have things in their way. These guys have no obstacles. So, or they have no regulatory obstacles. They have no, like, they just buy their way into seamlessness, which is their favorite part. But think about, this is what these guys do. They're like, okay, the two of them added$550 billion in market cap since 4 p.m.

1:00:31last night. Since they announced their earnings last night, they've added$550 billion in market capitalization. So they just added, oh, let's add Netflix. Let's add, I would imagine, the French stock market. I mean, people don't get a sense of the scale. It's working for them. It's a machine. Speaking of things that aren't a machine, let's finish up. Novo Nordisk shares are plummeting after the company slashed its full year guidance, citing weaker than expected U.S. growth for Ozempic and Wagovi. The stock dropped 30 % at one point on Tuesday, wiping out nearly$93 billion in market value. Novo Nordisk is blaming the downturn on increased competition from Eli Lilly's Mujaro and ZepBound, as well as, I think, more significantly cheaper GLP-1 knockoffs, which are not going away.

1:01:17They thought they were going away when things got settled in terms of manufacturing. The company also named a new CEO, replacing previous CEO, who was ousted by the board in May as the stock was sliding. This is incredible. A product that is going to be so big and the company at the top of it is just losing it. This, to me, is just one of these amazing stories because of all kinds of pressures. Of course, competition was going to get in here. It's only going to get bigger in the GLP-1 market. But very quick thoughts on this because it's the opposite here, right? An amazing opportunity that's been blown, I guess.

1:01:52Well, speaking of tariffs, the number one import into the United States from Europe is pharmaceuticals. And I said two years ago, and I was mocked for this, that I thought the more important technology in terms of on the ground change to society was not AI, it was GLP-1. And what's happened here is that because of a shortage and kind of a loophole, some companies have been able to offer compounded GLP-1, which is basically like saying generics. And HIMSS stock went crazy because they were able to basically sell GLP-1 drugs for a fraction of the price. And then, as you mentioned, Eli Lilly's GLP-1 offering Zepbound is now more popular than McGovey.

1:02:30I absolutely love this. I still think the category is going to grow like crazy. Only 8 % of Americans have taken a GLP-1, but about a third of them are interested. I think if you want it, I think the most accretive thing you could do for our economy right now would be to offer access to GLP-1 drugs to everybody. I think if you look at the obesity industrial complex that wants people to buy a sugar bomb, eat shitty food, take advantage of the lowest calories to cost that people have to turn to in food deserts, and then hand these people over to the companies producing statins, hip replacements, knee replacements, kidney dialysis, that effectively we're monetizing people's health.

1:03:11And so much of it is obesity-related. It is. Especially the obesity-related healthcare costs are one to one and a half trillion a year. So similar to what the equivalent of the FDA did in the UK, I think it's the UK Health Ministry, they said, if you are smoking, we'll send you for free an electronic nicotine delivery service, because while that is not good for you, it's much less bad for you than tobacco. I think over the medium and long term, if you really wanted to have an impact on healthcare costs, you would make GLP-1 drugs accessible to absolutely everybody. Correct. So what did this company, which is the forefront of it, do wrong?

1:03:45Well, the honest answer is I don't know. I don't know if it's distribution or branding, but I would argue right now it's a great value because this is, if not the market leader, one of the market leaders in what is an unbelievable business and category. And it's trading at a PE because it's been hammered because it's not performing well. Well, interesting, they did a deal with him and hers, right? And then they continued to sell the knockoffs. So then they got in a fight with him and hers, right? So him and hers was selling the knockoff, then Novo Nordisk did a deal with them. And then it fell apart because they continued selling of the compounds, which need to be regulated, by the way, is really something that loophole really has.

1:04:28You know, these guys should have been riding off into the sunset because they kind of, but they don't because of these GLP-1 knockoffs. It's fascinating that this is what got them, that they didn't anticipate this. The market has a tendency to over-punish and over-reward. And the momentum right now is against these guys. So with their five-year average PE has been 33. It's been as high as 50. Today, it's going to open at 14.6. And when you think about the average S &P company trades at a PE of 26, to get the market leader, even though it is underperforming expectations in GLP-1 at 14.6 times earnings, I actually think the stock is a buy right now.

1:05:05But there's no doubt about it. This is a national champion for Europe that is, quote unquote, faltering or not living up to the expectations. But I actually think the stock has been overpunished. And of all the technologies of the last 10 years, the one I'm most excited about is GLP-1. I think it's a game changer. Absolutely. In fact, in doing this secret documentary, one of the things that every doctor has said is I asked them what they think the most important developments technology in pharmaceutical, and they're always like mRNA vaccines. That's interesting. CRISPR. CRISPR and GLP-1s. They're like, I don't know which one's more important.

1:05:40And they all mentioned GLP-1s on a range of things because it's just beginning We're beginning to understand it. I would agree with you. All right, we have to move on. One more quick break, but we'll be back for predictions.

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1:07:46There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel. One big question I've got is why, in 2025, are late-night TV shows, like Jimmy Kimmel's show, still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, you might save some nickels and dimes. But what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now.

1:08:35That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

1:08:45Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. I have a very quick one, very quickly. Kamala Harris announced this week she's not running for governor of California. She also revealed she's written a book about her campaign called 107 Days. I'm not so sure she's going to run for president. I didn't think, as I told you, I didn't think she was going to run for governor. I don't think she's going to run for president. I think she knows that she can't win and she has enough responsibility to understand that. And so I predict she will also not run for president. Well, I'm good at running other people's lives.

1:09:16if I was the vice president, I would go be the chairman of a hedge fund, make a shit ton of money and just wait for the next democratic administration and be a Supreme court justice. Yeah. I don't think, I don't think she needs the risk of potentially lose. I'm not sure she'd win governor and she just doesn't need that. And does she really win by a lot if she wins, right? So if she even, if she wins and doesn't win by enough, she'll be, she'll be dark in that regard. And a lot of people describe California as ungovernable, that it's just, that special interest groups are so entrenched. People say this is a, even, even Republican governors will say, I would not want that job.

1:09:52Right. That it's a very difficult, I think, I think it's the right move. I don't think she wanted to do, I don't, I think she, as an executive, she didn't want, she didn't have the fire. When I talked to her, you could tell like, it was like, she's supposed to versus she wants to. So I don't know. She's probably sick of running. I hope, I hope, yeah, I don't think she should. And, you know, I thought she did. Good try. She did. She did a good try. Given the hand she was dealt, I think one of the greatest performances in history by any athlete or person, when I saw her walking into that debate with the president and the amount of pressure on her shoulders and the way she handled herself.

1:10:31Good job. Great job. Yeah. She deserves a lot of credit for trying to run a U.S.-style race, hamstrung by what was, you know, British election. Old man Biden. Yeah. Yeah. British election cycle. I mean, she had, what, 111 days or something to turn up on the song? And she had Biden hanging around. I hope she's happy. I don't know. I hope so, too. I think she's been a great public servant. I just don't think she's going to run for president. But she'll be a, she's literally the first Supreme Court justice appointee of a Democratic presidency. I know she does. She's an easy one. That's a lot of work.

1:11:03That's a lot of work. Okay. What's your prediction very briefly? So each year I pick an IPO of the year, and that is an IPO I think is going to do really well. Airbnb, last year it was Reddit. Today I believe will be the IPO of the year, and I think that IPO is a company called Figma. Figma. And it's a design company, and I've been building these. My son's been trying to find a business and building these sites, and it is just so obvious that design is the salsa to the chip of all AI. And that is whenever AI returns anything, it just looks so, you know, anodyne, generic, just, and if you look at designers, if you look at, for example, IBM used to hire one designer for every 70 programmers.

1:11:48Now it's one to 10. Design is a booming field and seems to be somewhat so far immune from AI. And Figma is essentially this kind of collaborative software company. It's great for design. The thing that got me looking at it was my partner at Prop G, Catherine Dillon, who is a professor of the visual arts at Tisch, or professor of the arts, teaches a very popular course called Design Language. And the first thing she does for her students is she asks them to download Figma. And this company, so there's this thing called the rule of 40 in SaaS. And that is you take your growth rate plus your profit margins.

1:12:28The rule of 40 for Figma, its profit margins around 20 % and its growth this year is 44%, giving it a rule of 40 of 64, which puts it in the top five of SaaS companies. And just to give you a sense of how profitable and how economically efficient this company is, Uber spent$21 billion between 2009 and 2021. Figma has raised$750 million, but has$1.5 billion on its balance sheet, meaning that it has accreted$750 million. It works with between seven and eight of the 10 of every Fortune 2000 companies. Adobe is sort of the Mercedes, a little bit over-engineered, an amazing company. They have responded with competition with Adobe Express because Figma is known as being more collaborative, but Figma is a little bit easier to use.

1:13:21Figma, I think, is more like Toyota. It's going out at 18 times revenues. And the most interesting, I think, think about this, is this was the IPO that wasn't supposed to happen. And this IPO, which I think will offer investors an opportunity to invest in a great company, more competition. Corporations will be able to have better products for a lower price. It's great that Adobe didn't get it. I think that was a great move by the government. That's exactly right. And we'll come back to that. $20 billion valuation right now. Also, from an employee standpoint, we're worried, you know, obviously about employees.

1:13:50When companies are acquired, generally speaking, within a year, 18 % of the employees have left of the company that was acquired. When a company goes public, usually they hire, increase their hiring in year one of 23%. And the reason this company is going public, it's not because of our antitrust, not because of our regulation, but because of EU antitrust, which blocked this merger. So while we're sitting on our hands, letting companies concentrate power and become, create a less competitive market, the EU regulators said, no, this makes no sense to take the numbers one and two player and let them, you know, let the upstart.

1:14:24Figma is sort of to Adobe what AI is to search. Adobe is still going to be an amazing business, but this is the new stuff. These guys are kind of the new guys and the EU blocked this. And as a result, Figma got a breakup fee of a billion dollars. It's just, it's still shy of the Adobe deal, but in terms of creating more billionaires, in terms of creating more economic value for people, this is the right way to go, as you're saying. Anyways, my prediction is the following. So as yesterday, I was literally calling everybody I could to try and get shares in this thing for the IPO, typically they want to build a book of somewhere between eight and 12 times demand.

1:15:03And the way it works is institutions call and say, I want a million shares. And they always vastly overestimate how much they want because any decent IPO, you're going to get cut back, right? You're going to get trimmed back. So you put in an overallocation. A really good IPO builds a book of eight to 12 times the request for the number of outstanding shares or the shares being issued. I found out yesterday that Figma was 40X oversubscribed. And if you look at the companies going out this year, not only of IPOs, there's been fewer of them, but the companies that have performed well are what I call, it's not that they're not great companies, it's that they're fashionable, like Chime or Circle, like stable coin shit.

1:15:42This is, in my opinion, a real company that's a great company that's killing it, that has amazing economics, products. We haven't had many of those, if any, this year. So anyways, my prediction is the following. Always dangerous to make predictions about stocks. This is not financial advice, but this is what I have been trying to do. I have been trying my damnedest to try and find shares in this thing because I think the first trade today, I think this thing closes up monstrously today. And we're recording on a Thursday morning, but I think Figma is what I'll call the first great company to go public in 2025.

1:16:22And I think it's going to be seen as one of the better IPOs of the year. I'm really excited about this company. And also it's a lesson on the importance of antitrust and regulation. Who wins here? More employment. Investors have an opportunity to invest in a pure play, amazing company, corporations, more competition, more tax revenue. And thank you, EU. They actually said, no, this is not a good idea. We would be better with two great companies, not one here. And as a result, this company is now going public. It was supposed to be acquired two and a half years ago for 20 billion. It was going to be acquired for 50 times revenues, but now investors will get a chance to invest it about 18 times revenues.

1:17:00So this is just a win, win, win. Win, win, win. I hope you got shares, Professor Gowley. Anyway, thank you. That's an excellent prediction. I love that one. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Elsewhere in the Kara and Scott universe this week, this week on Prof G Conversations, Scott was with Ezra Klein, a New York Times columnist and host of The Ezra Klein Show. Let's listen to a clip. What's not working is the Democratic Party being leaderless and rudderless.

1:17:30I'm not shocked that at the moment, if you ask people in a poll who they'd vote for, like they don't really know what to say, like which Democrat, what do they know about them? But the Democratic Party is in a pretty shattered place. And so one of the reasons the Democratic Party is very unpopular right now, is Democrats do not like it. Now, those people are not going to vote Republican, but they are pissed off at the Democratic Party, which has to them been ineffectual, which has to them been unable to stop the worst of what Trump is doing, which has to them not come up with a message or come up with a set of leaders.

1:18:02Ezra's the kind of guy that wants to talk to you about his mushroom microdosing, but first asks if he can share his screen. That was a good interview. He's really smart. He's really smart. I don't agree with him on everything, but he's really smart. Now, Scott, the time has come. The time has come. You usually get testy by this time of year, but Scott Free August is upon us. It is. It is upon us. I think you're happier this year. You usually get real testy and wrangling. I'm in a good place. No, I'm in a good place. I think it's Ezra Klein. Every time I listen to Ezra Klein, it's like listening to a meditation app describing the collapse of democracy.

1:18:42But how much are you going to miss me, Scott? How much are you going to miss me, really? A lot? A little? I don't miss anybody. I miss people when I see them. Like, I saw you this morning. When you come back, you're always giddy to see me. Stop it. I miss my boys. Those are the only people I've ever missed in my life. Okay, you miss me. What I do, though, are you this way? I don't miss people. And then I see them, and I think, oh, I miss them. It's good to see them. I miss when you're not there. But we We have some amazing co-hosts coming up, guest co-hosts. Mel Robbins, Let Them Lady, who's amazing.

1:19:08She has one of the top podcasts. Anthony Scaramucci, who was a big hit last year, is coming back. Rachel Maddow is coming and replacing you, Scott. And I feel like, you know, things could happen. Rachel Maddow. Rachel Maddow. Wow. And more. Isn't it weird? People want to replace me, but they don't want to be on with me. Like, our guest quality goes up so dramatically. When you're not here, this year's a big year. Yeah, people are like, yeah, I'm fine to replace him because I know I'll do better. It's a low bar, but no one wants to come on. Yeah. Secretary Clinton is going to be Jessica's co-host at Raging Monarch when I'm gone.

1:19:43Oh, that's great. Yeah, I know. It's just amazing. Do you have any advice for these folks at all while you're away? Just a lot of lesbian jokes. Just that's my go-to. By the way, if you listen to Ezra Klein's podcast on One and a Half Speed, Okay, stop. It's like listening to a normal person describe how to ruin a dinner party. Okay, all right. Any advice for co-hosts? Just lesbian jokes? A little nod to the dog and totally profane. Not that funny, but because it's profane and not that funny, it's a funny joke. It's just the left, all of these people, these people are somewhat left of the head of HR from the National Park Service.

1:20:26So our job on this podcast is to grab humor back for the progressives. So be inappropriate. Show some humor. We're all going to be dead soon. Whoever you offend will get over it. Let them own that emotion and just have some fun. Have a great time. People will miss you. Anyway, I do. I always miss you. I always wonder what you think of things. So I'm excited for you to get back in September. I'm not. Here's the answer. I'm not. Occasionally, people make the mistake of going, what are you thinking? And I'm like, I'm not. What am I thinking about? I know, like things happen. And like, we'll catch up when you get back and stuff like that.

1:21:00And I will somehow come back and stay at your apartment while you're away. Anyway, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. And be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'll be back next week with a special co-host. And they will do their best to replace Scott. But nobody can replace the irreplaceable. Scott Galloway. Scott, read us out. Today's show is produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kevin Oliver. Ernie and Ertad engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Moussa Berio, and Dan Chalon. Nishat Kura is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.

1:21:33Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a wonderful August and thanks for continuing to bring great work. And at some point, I trust you will take a long weekend or something. Anyways, have a great August, everybody.