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Podcast Episode Notes: Pivot - "Market Meltdown, Tariff Winners and Losers, and TikTok Deadline Delayed"
Episode Overview In this episode of Pivot, tech journalist Kara Swisher and NYU Professor Scott Galloway dive into the impact of President Trump's tariffs, explore the winners and losers in the current market climate, and discuss the implications of a delayed TikTok deadline.
Key Themes and Discussions
Market Volatility
- Current Market Trends: The U.S. stock market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant declines linked to Trump's tariffs. Over $6 trillion was lost in market value.
- Recession Fears: Goldman Sachs has raised the recession risk to 45% due to the ongoing tariff situation and market instability. Larry Summers labeled the tariffs as "the biggest self-inflicted wound" on the economy.
Tariff Winners and Losers
- Winners:
- Warren Buffett: Positioned well with a growing cash reserve, benefiting from the market fluctuations.
- Losers:
- Big Tech: Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Tesla saw dramatic drops in market cap; Apple lost about 16% of its value.
- Fast Fashion Brands: Companies like Shein and Timu are hit hard due to tariff changes on goods valued under $800.
Trump Administration's Actions
- Tariff Policies: Trump's tariffs have led to retaliatory actions from China, including a 34% tariff on U.S. goods. The situation is complicated by Trump’s unpredictability in policy-making.
- Howard Lutnick's Commentary: The idea that tariffs could lead to a manufacturing resurgence in the U.S. was dismissed by Scott, who argued that Americans are not interested in factory jobs.
Economic Predictions
- Potential Market Impact: Scott warns of a significant decline in U.S. stock market valuations, predicting a contraction in the S&P 500’s PE multiple from 26 to possibly 15, driven by a loss of the U.S. brand's global trust and reliability.
- Advice to Investors: Amid the turmoil, Scott advises investors to stay calm, avoid rash decisions, and consider diversifying investments to include international markets, particularly in Europe and Latin America.
TikTok Deadline Update
- Delay of TikTok Ban: The deadline for TikTok's ban has been extended by 75 days. Discussions around potential ownership structures continue but are mired in the larger trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Personal Insights and Anecdotes
- College Tour Stories: Kara shares humorous and relatable anecdotes from her recent college tour with her son, showcasing the unique characteristics of various universities.
- Anecdotes about Market Reactions: Both hosts reflect on their experiences with the current market conditions and the quirks of investor behavior during turbulent times.
Closing Thoughts
- Social and Ethical Considerations: The discussion highlights the broader implications of economic policies on societal values, human rights, and the need for a balanced approach to capitalism that prioritizes the welfare of all citizens, particularly those in vulnerable positions.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. stock market is in turmoil due to Trump’s tariffs, leading to significant financial losses and recession fears.
- Big Tech companies are severely impacted, while traditional investors like Warren Buffett are better positioned.
- Investors are advised to remain calm and not react emotionally to market volatility.
- The TikTok situation illustrates the complexities of international trade negotiations amid rising tensions.
Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to engage with the podcast community through social media and share their questions or insights. Follow Pivot on Instagram, Threads, and TikTok @pivotpodcastofficial, or submit questions at nymag.com/pivot.
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*This episode of Pivot offers a critical lens on the intertwining of economic policies and personal stories, emphasizing the need for informed decision-making in uncertain times.*
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:32Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine, the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher in my new studio without books behind me, but they will have them. Here I am, Scott. How do I look? Oh, my God. Could you be any more? Well, you're apologizing for not having books behind you. Well, I'm going to have awards. My many awards is what I'm going to have. Yeah. Do you like my new studio? It's in my house. I'm not sure I like the red chair, quite frankly. Why? Does it upset you? Does it threaten you? No, it takes me back to an era I think you've moved on. I think you've turned the page on the red chair.
2:05We'll see. I like it for now. I'm going to leave it because it upsets you. Yeah. It upsets and disturbs you. You mean it's like retro or that I should, it reminds you of Walt Mossberg who I just had lunch with? No, I love Walt. I just think you've moved on. All right. I don't know. What colored chair should I have with you in the Scott era? Plaid. No, I don't know. Black. I'm going to put your blanket that I stole from the Fife Arms for your birthday. I'm going to put it on. Oh, good. That'd be nice. I'll put that on. Okay. Next. All right. I'll put it. I'll drape it. I'll drape a Scottish, a Scott Scottish thing on it.
2:37No, I think it reminds us how old you are. But anyways. Literally. Right out of the gate. Go ahead. Right out of the gate. Go ahead. Hello. You were on your college tour. Tell me if you were away last week. Yeah. We had lovely guest hosts. I went Jen Psaki and John Lovett. They were great. Jen Psaki. Those are both great. They are great. They were very lively. I'd like to be friends with both of them. They'd be fun to roll with. We'll see about that. She's interesting and attractive, and he's interesting. Really? Okay. Sorry. Sorry, John. Anyway. Who's the handsome one? Who's the handsome one?
3:07All of them. Oh, Jon Favreau is who you're thinking about. Oh, he's dreamy. Yeah. That dude's dreamy. I think Jon Lovett's adorable. Yeah, he's kind of like... He was on Survivor. Do you know he was on the show Survivor? He was on Survivor? Yeah, he was on Survivor. He's way too smart and overthought. He's out in the second round. Yeah, he was out pretty quick, I think. I don't watch that. That guy said, I'm going to do this, I'm going to do this, and I'm voting John off the island. Okay, college tour, back to me. A college tour. Tell me about the college tour, because I really don't want to talk about White Lotus in any way.
3:35So, eight schools in five days. Seven straight days of full parenting. Cleared everything. Didn't talk to anybody. I only talked to you once, if that. And it was about the college tour. We went to, I like to personify everything. Obviously. And just so I can make sure my kid gets into none of them. I'll personify each of them. So the first one we did was UW, University of Wisconsin-Madison. And when I was at UCLA, the fraternity next to mine was the Phi Caps. And the Phi Caps were basically these white dudes from small towns who abused substances who did really well on the SAT. Okay. That is the University of Wisconsin-Madison, except it's a girl who wears too much makeup, who really likes makeup.
4:21and but they're doing their job actually UW Madison I rag a lot on higher education they're doing their job they let in a shit ton of kids it's crowded they have money but it's not the Ritz-Carlton Madison they get it you know they got the assignment I felt really good I actually met with someone there just so I can break you signal they do this amazing program where they train prisoners or they educate they do classes at local prisons I'm giving some money to it. They're doing their job. I was really impressed with them. Okay, so you like them, but you just insulted them so your son's not getting in there now.
4:52But go ahead and move them all. There you go. Thanks for that. And then we went to Chicago. Chicago's a dude. University of, that's what you're talking about. Yeah, UChicago. I did a session there in the Institute of Politics with David Axelrod. He's great. Yeah, which is available on YouTube. and imagine a guy in a park. They're one of two things. They either win a Nobel Prize. Everyone who goes there either wins a Nobel Prize or ends up in a park without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to themselves. I mean, these people are, I can't imagine people I would rather not party with than anyone who went to the University of Chicago.
5:32Having said that, having said that, anyone that interviews with me that went to the University of Chicago, automatic hire because they're self-hating they work all the time they're brilliant mildly depressed perfect employees perfect employees let's move it through okay keep going northwestern okay this is the gay son we all want oh okay this is write a college tour book this is stylish impressive yeah good in theater but also like takes ap everything and does well and And it's the most, there is clearly so much money there. It is such a beautiful campus. It is. But the lake is just sitting there going, oh, bitch, I'm going to make it so cold about three months a year.
6:20You may think, oh, my God. You can just feel the wind. You can feel Mother Winter in the Weir going, oh, just wait and see what I'm going to do to you. Then we went to Michigan. And saw my son. Your son is Michigan personified. Oh, no. You better be careful because he loves you and I'm his mom. Imagine you're a power forward and work out all the time and a nice kid and you also get 11 million on the SAT. They're like, these kids are. Michigan is one of the schools. It's arguably the best public school in the nation, maybe tied with Berkeley. But you can go super deep on social or you could literally try and split the atom at the building next to the cafeteria.
7:07Yeah, right. You could go deep either way. I think Michigan, and it's a big school. I like to call out schools that are doing their job. They're living up to their mission. They're trying to keep tuition reasonable. It's not inexpensive. But educating a lot of kids, they're doing their job. And it's a really impressive place. And also, you can go deep in sports. Your son saved the day. What happened? It's storming, about 300 people. By the way, we show up, we've been doing all these tours. By the way, easy law. It should be a law punishable by death. No parent should be able to ask a question in the fucking parents, teacher in the tours.
7:52They all, I was so triggered. None of the students could ask a question because the over-parenting, and get this, The highlight, this is a true story, University of Chicago. University of Chicago. Three women, three moms asked the same question sequentially about safety on campus. The safety of daughters. The threat to an 18-year-old freshman on college campuses is dwarfed by the suicidal ideation of overprotection of parents that don't prepare them for the fucking real world. Moms asking questions at parent-teachers. I don't think they should ask questions then. I agree. Parents at college tours are a bigger threat to your kids' safety.
8:36All right. Okay. Moving along. So Alex took you on a tour, I understand. Okay. Anyway, so we get there. They canceled the tour. The weather was so bad. They're like, we're canceling the tour. So you have 100 kids and 200 parents just sitting in the hallway. So I text Alex and he's like, yeah, come to the house. We showed up. imagine you're an animal living inside a trash dumpster and it had greek letters on the side it is it smells like old beer old old beer there's shit everywhere and by the way it's much nicer than my fraternity and it's these kids playing foosball some are in suits some are studying physics there's a weight he said you liked it he said you seem to enjoy being It took me back.
9:25I lived in my fraternity for four years. And my girlfriend wouldn't come over. I'd say, why wouldn't you come over? And she said, it smells like cum. I don't want to come over. So I came up with a business idea. I came up with a business idea. I'm going to start a candle and it's either stale beer or cum. I think it would work. We're only four colleges in here. Alex gave you a tour. That's my Santa Keanu. He saved the day. Oh, I'm sorry. Alex saved the day. And then Alex said, no problem, come out of fraternity. We cruised around as fraternity. My son just got the biggest kick out of a fraternity.
9:57And then he took us on this, like, this, like, I don't know, Cliff Notes tour of Michigan and then took us for lunch. He literally, Alex saved the day. We were in a typhoon with a parent-teacher comp or a tour canceled and Alex did this whirlwind. He saved the day. And my son is very impressed by Alex. He couldn't have been nicer and more generous. Not easy for a kid to just take two or three hours out of his day. Anyways, thank you, Alex Swisher. And then we went to Boston College, which we were really impressed by. I say that was the biggest surprise to the upside, but it is sort of a, it's a fallen Catholic.
10:36It's a kid that used to go to church, and by the 11th grade, he's selling dope out of his RAV4. Is that the AOC college, or did you go to Boston University? Oh, we have a sea one there? I feel like Boston University is where she went. It's a contradiction. It looks like these kids are waiting to get home and light up and maybe start doing some, you know, doing some beer bongs. But there's sisters everywhere. I did not, I still haven't figured out what's going on there, but it's a really impressive, I was really pleasantly surprised by BC. We then went to. Time check. Go ahead. We then went to UVA.
11:11I want to go to UVA. I think it's the most beautiful campus in the nation. I think if we want to restore prosperity in mating, I think men and women should each get a number. And whatever the number is, you get married on the spot on the lawn. Everyone there is nice. Everyone there is good looking. Everyone there is impressive. Just marry them all off. They should all just marry each other. They're never going to find a talent pool like that in the architecture. And then we went to UNC. and the terrible thing about teenagers is they start getting these terrible things called opinions. We got to UNC and my son was like a dog off a leash in the park.
11:49He just started running around and going in buildings and something happened at UNC. UNC is basically the hottest, smartest person or the hottest, most, the most popular kid in class at all UNC schools have one thing in common. They leave North Carolina. The second hottest, most impressive person goes to UNC. Great school. They're just... Great vibe. It's just got a great vibe. Great vibe. A great vibe. Another school people love. The two schools where they talk about it to this day is UNC and Michigan. They love their schools. They love their schools. I'm not exaggerating, and I'm a little bit scared to say this.
12:27I don't think it'll impact anything, but he walked to the top of the stairs. I couldn't tell the difference between UNC and UVA, except UVA looks like it has 50 or 60 wealthier donors. It's a little newer. It's a little shinier. But they look like the same school to me. He walked to the top of the stairs. He turned around and he looked out over the quad and he goes, this is my school. No, see, you know it. All right. Well, don't say anything. And all I can think about, 8 % out-of-state admissions rate. I don't know if it's your school. You need to move to North Carolina. That's what you need to do.
13:00I literally chat GPT'd that. How do you establish North Carolina residents? It's not easy. You actually have to live there. I don't know who your congressperson or your senator would be. Anyways, it's two Republicans, but the governor's a great guy. All right. The governor's really impressive. I'm going to stop your college tour now because we're 10 minutes in. Good. I'm glad. That's my college tour. Next week. All right. We have a lot to do. By the way, when you were gone, things happened, my friend. Lots of things happened. Really? The world kept spinning? The world did not keep spinning. The world is crashing.
13:29We're on a—let's get right in. Let's get in. The U.S. markets are on a roller coaster, as we record Monday morning, following an epic two-day dive last week, epic in a bad term, that destroyed$6 trillion in market value thanks to Donald Trump's tariffs, which seemed like inane in the way they were formulated. U.S. stocks tumbled at the opening bell today, briefly surged following a report that Trump was considering a 90-day pause, which many are suggesting to him, including Jamie Dimon and others from bankers and other people. The White House quickly called that report fake news, and the current Dow S &P 500 are currently back in the red.
14:04So a lot of volatility, to say the least. Who knows what Trump will do? In fact, he seemed to be sticking by his guns. We'll get to winners and losers from these tariffs a little later, but we've seen overall, we've been seeing Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a U.S. recession of 45%. As Larry Summers put it, this is the biggest self-inflicted wound we put on our economy in history. In terms of retaliation, China was quick to respond, imposing a 34 percent tariff on all goods imported from the U.S. starting on April 10th. Trump said he's going to impose an additional 50 percent on China if they don't drop that 34 percent increase.
14:35And of course, the TikTok deal went out the window. The EU is expected to present a united front in the coming days with a set of targeted countermeasures. Let me read a couple more things. This retaliation moves, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who looks unhappy, said over the weekend that more than 50 countries have started negotiations with the U.S. since the tariff announcement, whatever, probably like the penguins, maybe. Though Trump also said, my policies will never change. Howard Lutnick, who seems like the biggest clown of all, besides Peter Navarro, which are the two faces of this, also offered his take on how tariffs will lead to a manufacturing resurgence in the U.S.
15:09and face the nation. This quote, I literally was like, this is the dumbest person I've ever met. So let's go. Let's listen to that and then we'll get some reaction from you. Remember the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones. That kind of thing is going to come to America. It's going to be automated and great Americans, the tradecraft of America is going to fix them. It's going to work on them. They're going to be mechanics. There's going to be HVAC specialists. There's going to be electricians. The trade craft of America are high school educated Americans.
15:44The core to our workforce is going to have the greatest resurgence of jobs in the history of America to work on these high tech factories, which are all coming to America. He's an idiot. I don't know what else to say. The screws, the robots, whatever he said. Last thing, sorry. Mark Cuban said one thing the terrorists are going to spur is smuggling a resurgence. Mark Cuban said that and noted that maybe that's what the border patrol money is used for. So reaction. Well, let's just talk about Apple. Americans don't want to go into a factory and screw in little screws. Americans don't even want to put on a hazmat suit and go to a regular factory.
16:19This notion that Americans are dying to go back to an assembly line is just not true. You can't get you can't get Americans to work on a construction site. Do you think they're going to show up for assembly line work? So let's let's talk specifically about Apple. iPhone costs about twelve or thirteen hundred bucks with the existing tariffs. They're going to two thousand. If we tried to produce them in the U.S., they'd be$3 ,500. They're not. So first off, they're not coming back here. And all that's going to happen is the following. Fewer people are going to buy fewer iPhones. It'll reduce Apple revenues by 30 to 40 billion dollars, say economists.
16:54It trades at eight times revenue. So you're going to wipe out a third of a trillion dollars. You're going to have 401ks go down. You're going to people be less confident buying things. You're going to have Apple employees and shareholders lose a lot of wealth. You're going to have, I mean, you're in, we're not even talking about the second tier effects. And that is one, we are thrusting people into the arms of China. And two, assume it just goes tit for tat. Let's stop talking. We know tariffs are bad. Let's assume that we reduce a billion dollars of Samsung sales, right? I'm trying to think of an analog to Apple.
17:32and Apple sales go down a billion dollars. Samsung trades at like 1.2 to two times revenues. Apple trades at eight. So you think, okay, it's bad, but we each lose a billion dollars in revenue and sales through prices or products that are less competitive because they're more expensive. No, we lose$8 billion in market cap. They lose two. So the biggest beneficiary of global trade over the last 30 or 40 years has been the US because the products we export are high margin, high value-add manufactured products. We're the second biggest manufacturer in the world. But what we do is we take cheap oil from Canada, we refine it.
18:12We take cheap products from other nations in earth minerals, and we turn them into very expensive 55-point margin NVIDIA chips. So Tesla, another example, Toyota, really well-run company trades at 0.7 times revenue. Tesla trades at eight times revenue. So for every billion dollars in reductions in trade of Tesla, we lose 8 billion in market cap. They lose 77 million. So the echo effect here is so dramatic. And even beyond that, even beyond that, you're going to see, in my view, over the next five years, a pretty serious destruction in the value of our stock markets. And it's for the following reasons.
19:00The U.S. market trades at a PE multiple of 28 until Wednesday night. Now it's down to 26. Germany is at 22 or 23. Japan at 18. China at 14. Now, why do our companies trade at a higher value for the same earnings, the same profits as companies in other nations? It's because we have this umbrella called the U.S. brand, and it means a lot of things. It means risk-aggressive capital. It means entrepreneurship. It means great universities, great IP. It means immigration. It means rule of law and consistency. We're seen as a consistent trading partner. China doesn't have rule of law. They can put companies out of business right away.
19:40They can disappear people. Germany doesn't have as much risk capital. They're not as aggressive. The U.S. is losing or has lost two things. Rule of law, we've now decided to basically ignore court orders. We're doing one offs and companies that make no sense. We're deporting people to El Salvador for no reason at all. In addition, we're no longer seen as consistent. The epileptic sclerotic decisions of this guy. So what are you going to have? You're going to have a re-rating of the S &P down from 26 to maybe 15. And here's the thing. All of our companies could continue to outperform the rest of companies around the world and their stocks are still going to go down.
20:23If you invested in Latin American stocks, it didn't matter how well the company did. You cannot outrun multiple contraction, which is going to happen over the next five years. So, Stephanie, you'll point out correctly, like it's deciding on this one person who has a wrong math and the wrong idea between trade deficits and tariffs and the relationship. Every single thing he's saying is actually wrong and has this thing in his head that everything has to equal out, that if they buy this, we sell that. Like, we have to sell exactly, like, why don't they? And Stephen Miller, same thing. Why don't they buy American cars?
20:59Because Toyotas are better, you dumbass, and they make them here too. Like, the stupidity is outranked only by the, as you were saying, the rule of law, the lack of any consistency, the reliability of the U.S. one what has to happen here what do you imagine it's going to happen here because there's now suddenly jamie diamond is speaking about bill ackman has suddenly found his his balls again and is saying something truthful although he he made sure he sucked up to trump in the beginning of the of his screed which was about a nuclear winter in investing essentially um or in the u.s economy what's your what's your advice to people that are panicking right now and trying to figure to their investments?
21:40And then second, no, first, what do you think is going to happen? And what's your advice for people if it continues in this way? I feel more confident answering the latter than the former. I can't predict Donald Trump's actions. I think he is so, look, the only adult in the cabinet here that isn't on unsecure phones and apps, releasing attack plans to the rest of the world, and who has any understanding of economics. I've said this for a long time. The adult in the room is the Dow, the 10-year, and the NASDAQ. And if the NASDAQ keeps going down, they're probably going to have to respond. They're not going to be able to jazz hands their way out of this.
22:21The argument they're making is the following, is that the market doesn't represent the real economy. That's actually a relatively good argument. The Dow Jones and NASDAQ are dangerous indicators because they give a false signal of prosperity. And a lot of people aren't impacted by the markets. They're impacted by things like inflation. The problem is if you were to take minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour, or you were to increase taxes on corporations to try and have some fiscal sanity, that would take the markets down, but that would be an investment that would be worth it. This is just making products more expensive, making our products less competitive overseas, and convincing the rest of the world to reconfigure the supply chain to not include American businesses or professionals.
23:00That's just shooting yourself in the foot and then taking your gun and putting it in your mouth. So, but I have no idea what he's going to do. I just don't get it. I think if this gets much worse, he's probably going to do some bullshit. Like, so for example, Jamie Dimon's suggestion, that's even worse because it's the uncertainty that hurts more than the tariffs. We're going to do that. We're going to pull another TikTok. It's just, for God's sakes, we'd be better off if he just came up with some sort of, not this tariff level, but some sort of modest tariff and let people plan their business.
23:32It's the uncertainty and the unpredictability. It's like being in a relationship with someone who's bipolar, speaking for a friend. You don't know who you're waking up next to. Also, it's incorrect. One of the people who they base the theories on has written a piece in their time saying they got this totally wrong and they did the math wrong and it's a quarter. What they should put here is a quarter of what I said. You know, I said a quarter of what they're doing here, which means they don't know how to do math. That's the part that's frightening. They actually don't understand what they've done.
24:03like pushing the nuclear button. What does this do kind of thing? I don't know. That makes me more nervous. The key to building a business, the team of the best players wins. Greatness is in the agency of others. Do you know these ass clowns? Do you know where they came up with the formula for their tariffs? If you type in tariff, give me a tariff that levels up our trade debt, which is a stupid, you want a trade deficit. But if you ask the question, put in place tariffs against every nation based on bringing equilibrium to our trade deficit, if you put it into chat GPT, you come back with the exact formulas they came up with.
Read the full transcript
24:40Their economic advisors are fucking turning to chat GPT. Let's go to your second question, what to do as an investor. This is what you do. Nothing. And that is whether it's you getting a divorce, whether you lose someone you love, whether you get fired, you do not make big life decisions in the midst of emotional trauma because you are not thinking straight. In addition, tomorrow morning, he could announce, say you sell all your stocks today, he could announce tomorrow morning that he's removing all tariffs. He's capable of doing that. And the markets could rip up 2000 points. And then what happens to your mental health when you're sold at the bottom?
25:22Probably the worst piece of financial advice given to media was when Jim Cramer, who I don't think, I don't think he's malice. I think is a good guy trying to do the right thing. He told investors at the very bottom, if you don't like this volatility, you should sell your stocks. Within 14 months, we had recovered all of our losses. If you sold, when Jim Cramer suggested you might want to think about getting out, you saw your net worth cut in half. And even more damaging to your financial well-being was your mental well-being, because you saw everybody else get back exactly where they were, and you were the idiot that sold at the bottom.
25:57This is what I'm doing. Since Q4 of last year, I just look at the S &P. Apple's trading at 38 times earnings and it's not growing. I have been selling down U.S. stocks and I have been diversifying into Latin American and European and some Asian stocks, because if you're just invested in the U.S., you are not diversified. And see above a re-rating down a contraction in the multiple of U.S. stocks. You may want to think about maybe taking some tax losses, harvesting some tax losses. Talk to people. Talk to people. Have a kitchen cabinet. Don't do anything rash. You're out of emotion. But I think if you were to diversify into European stocks, which, by the way, you're not buying low and selling low and buying high.
26:41European stocks have been hit hard, too. You're a little bit more diversified, which I think is a vastly underrated strategy. D-E-R, that's stock. All right, we're going to go to a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to talk a little bit more about the losers and some winners from the Trump tariffs.
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28:45Scott, we're back. The number of sectors took a beating from Trump's tariff, and it's been particularly rough for big tech. In two days after the tariffs were announced, Apple dropped 16 percent, Matt fell 14. Amazon was down 13. Nice job, boys, of going to the inauguration. That really paid off for you. The two-day drop wiped out$31 billion in net worth for Elon Musk at$23 billion for Jeff Bezos and$27 billion for Mark Zuckerberg. I feel so bad for them. How's the investment in Trump paying off now? As a reporter of the weekend, a number of these folks want to go to Mar-a-Lago to talk to him about this.
29:18I don't know if they've done it yet, but this was the rumor that was going down that they are really, and also bankers. Elon doesn't seem to agree with Trump on tariffs. And of course, speaking his mind, he said on Saturday that he hoped Europe and the U.S. would affect him to zero tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone. Totally opposite. He also had a couple of posts calling out Peter Navarro, Trump's trade advisor, who is such an idiot. All the this I agree with Elon on all this as EU regulators are reportedly preparing to inflict a billion dollar fine against X for breaking a law to combat illicit content and disinformation.
29:50That's separate. This is interesting that he's doing that. The person that's looking more like a genius than ever, Warren Buffett. He didn't kiss the Trump wing. He's been growing his cash pile in the last year. He's currently sitting around$334 billion. Never doubt Warren Buffett, I guess. And then also a few losers, fast fashion brands, Shein, a Scott favorite, and Timu. Trump has closed the loophole that gave the tariff exemption on goods shipped from China valued under$800. I think it's called De Minimis or something like that. It no longer applies as of May 2nd. A lot of people didn't like this loophole.
30:27Without the loophole, prices and orders could jump as much as 30%. Amazon might also take a hit because they ran into the low-cost storefront powered by China, Chinese goods, cheap Chinese goods. One of the things that was really strange was Scott Besson talking about how Americans shouldn't buy cheap stuff anymore. Too bad. And that's too bad for you, Scott, because you can afford cashmere all the time. But that was another message they were sending out, is we should get off our cheap goods. So no longer shop at Walmart, the biggest employer in the U.S.? Yeah, right. Whatever. Like, none of your fucking business, dudes.
31:01So talk a little bit about tech, because also the last thing is tech sells a lot of services into Europe and cloud computing. Also, so do the McKinsey's of the world. And that's where we have a trade surplus in services, from what I understand. So talk a little bit about why it's impacting tech and, you know, sort of the, you see the real cracks in the Elons and the others. Bezos is probably apoplectic. Cook is apoplectic, I'm sure. And Warren Buffett looks, he's 105 years old, and he's once again the GOAT. It's just, okay, so let's look at Europe as the U.S. We export NVIDIA chips. NVIDIA trades at 24 times revenues.
31:46For every billion dollars, they sell in additional chips to other markets. institutional investors and employees of NVIDIA register a$24 billion gain. California gets enormous tax revenue from the incremental gains of shareholder value. When Mercedes exports Mercedes in the United States, they trade at 0.23. If they lose a billion dollars in business, they lose$23 million in market cap. $23 million versus$24 billion in lost market cap. We have taken, global trade has been great for the world. It's been the world more prosperous. And to be clear, we haven't done a good job of protecting the people who get hurt.
32:28Some people get hurt. There are certain industries, South Korea has done a good job of protecting nascent industries, strategic to them with tariffs. Tariffs can be used. These blanket tariffs, or let me put it this way, one of the greatest increases in global prosperity over the last 50 years, it would be hard pressed. You might think, well, it's the world order where democracies have bound together under the umbrella of U.S. prosperity and NATO and military might. We have kept the peace. Wars are very destructive to economics. But at the top of the list would probably be global trade. Find out what you can produce best at the lowest price and trade with someone who's really good at producing something else.
33:08And you both get better products at a lower price and you have a greater quality of life. So it's not only reduces the prosperity of the world, it massively, there's no nation that benefits more from global trade because our products are high margin, high value add. When Canada ships energy into the US, we then add value to it, we refine it, we turn it into higher grade petroleum, and we sell it at triple the price to other people. People, we are in the business of high value add, high margin, rule of law, IP driven, that creates so much revenue and shareholder value. What about this argument that we're going to bring domestic manufacturing back here?
33:55And everyone, even the crazy stations are like, that's going to take 10 years. And they're not going to do it. It'll never happen. It'll never happen. It'll never happen. And first off, we're not just a taco truck with masseuses. We're the second largest manufacturer in the world. But we manufacture AI chips. We manufacture really high value-add products that have decent margins. We have purposely outsourced low value-add, low margin, low shareholder value products. And American consumers, I'm sorry, American workers don't want to go back into factories. 98 % of businesses that sell into global trade are small and medium-sized businesses.
34:4240 million jobs are related to or depend on global trade. And people say, well, 40 million or 355, that's not that bad. Only 150 million people in the U.S. work. So the notion we're going to bring back, we don't want to bring back. I mean, what you need are great, great middle-class, well-paying jobs, vocational. You need more people trained to install energy-efficient HVAC heaters at 30 bucks an hour. We need that. But there is not a line to go work on a factory floor in Lansing, Michigan. This isn't what people do. Try and renovate a house and see how much people want to actually build a home that were born here.
35:25They don't. Who wants to do that? Immigrants. It's exactly right. So this notion that everyone's lining up to go work at a factory job in the Midwest on an assembly line? It's just, it's such a, it's like an 80s guy idea of the world. Like, seriously. And I get, you know, I do actually get the arguments about, you know, sort of hollowing out American manufacturing by doing cheaper goods abroad and going too far with free trade and not, you know, retraining people. There's great arguments to be made about trying to figure out new ways for people to have jobs. But this way, the idea, we're going to bring back factor.
36:06Every time Howard Lutton gets on the air, I'm like, are you living in a different century? Like, it's just it's been stuck in Trump's head for 40 years. And what's astonishing is the Republicans are like, let's listen to the president. Let's not. He knows. He's playing 40 chess. We just don't know. That's not what's happening. He's stuck in the 80s. He's stuck in some era that no longer exists. And wouldn't it be great if the women didn't vote and there was no such thing as me too and I could do whatever I felt like? This is a different era. And what kind of amazes me is that it hasn't gotten through to that the Republicans are still sticking with this.
36:51It's such a test of MAGA. I've never seen anything. This has got to be the ultimate cult test. Will you take the Kool-Aid? Will you actually drink the Kool-Aid kind of thing? We're so narcissistic, we refuse to acknowledge that the rest of the world is a pretty interesting case study in history. And the 50s and 60s, Latin America embraced protectionist policies. Their economy did not grow. They opened up, their economy boomed. the last time we had tariffs like this, they weren't even as big as this, was in 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Those tariffs weren't as big as these. And what was the impact there?
37:32It widened, it worsened a great impression. Instead of boosting the economy and creating jobs, by 1933, real U.S. GDP had dropped by a third. Do you know what would happen in the U.S. if GDP dropped by a third, and the unemployment rate, which is at 4%, hit 25%. I was really disappointed, really disappointed. I watched all the Sunday morning programs. Margaret Brennan did a good job. The rest of them clearly didn't take an economics class because they couldn't ask a basic question. Name a country. There are 159 countries. There are two centuries of economic, modern economic history. Name a country where this level of tariffs has worked.
38:11It hasn't. It hasn't. It hasn't. It backfires. It's the ultimate own goal. The fact that they're going, let's wait and see. Like, no, let's not wait and see what happens when we inject bleach into our veins. Let's not wait and see. We have to move on. But because, you know, one of the things that I want to talk about is this is a gift to China. This is China needed a way out of their economic doldrums. We've just handed them the key. Let me just ask you one question. This is a sincere question. If they can have a conspiracy that in the basement, which doesn't exist, of a pizza joint, Hillary Clinton is drinking the blood of children they're sacrificing, I can go semi-conspiracy theory.
38:50Okay, go ahead. Let's hear it. Putin and Xi have each put$10 billion into the Trump coin, or they've committed to it. You're going to be the wealthiest man in history. But you need to do the following things. You need to withdraw from Ukraine. You need to fragment the strongest U.S.-Western democracy alliances in history to give us license to do whatever the fuck we want. So he's the ultimate main-turing candidate is what you're saying. And we need you to thrust the biggest trade. China's all about money. We need you to thrust the biggest trading partners into arms. We need you to get Japan and South Korea to start talking to us again.
39:23If it was not Trump Vance, this is the question, if it was not Trump Vance, but it was Putin Xi, what would be any fucking different than what has happened over the last two months? Well, it seems too complicated. I just think he's stupid. We should have hired the smart. That's a solid plan B. We should have hired the smart woman of color. But that's my question. If Putin and Xi had been president and vice president, what would they have done differently? I don't know. I agree. I think he's just so stupid. I just stupidity takes the cake here. And he's stupid and he's addled and he's got to go.
40:02He's got to go. I don't know what else to say. Let's surrender Ukraine and side with our enemies. Let's pretend you won the Cold War, even though we won it. Except he has been talking about this for 40 years. It's been like a hair up his ass for 40 years. Like he has been talking about this. So I feel like he's now like, I'm going to do this finally and see what happens. I'm pushing this button and I'm seeing what's happening. I don't think it's a conspiracy. I'm going to ask Chachi BT. All right. Let's go on a quick break. We come back. Speaking of China, the TikTok deadline gets postponed yet again.
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42:48Scott, we're back. President Trump delayed the ban on TikTok for 75 days for a second time. How ridiculous. A steal for the sale was reportedly close until Trump made his tariffs announcement, causing China to pull out of the negotiations, obviously. Oracle, Blackstone, and Andreessen Horowitz, all friends of Donald Trump, were reportedly involved. Trump has previously suggested he could lessen tariffs on China in exchange for a deal. I'm sure China's just thrilled to hear that. I don't know why China would do anything. Like, maybe they will if they want to. I don't know why you would do anything.
43:21So let's do a very brief thing about this because I think it's just going to sit there in limbo and just bump along, right? I don't, there's no deal here. They're going to try to bring it under 20%. I think that's the amount, the ownership of China, for Chinese, the Chinese government and Chinese investors. Yeah, you go first here. What are your thoughts, Karen? I don't know what's going to happen here. It feels like a story from the 1980s too. I mean, I think it's, I think eventually it'll have some convoluted thing that's not going to make a difference or keep us safer in any way. I think they need to make the case of why it is dangerous.
43:57is I never, I sort of liked the law, but didn't like that. I didn't feel I made their case. And at the same time, I'm absolutely certain the Chinese are manipulating it. Like, I don't even feel like that. So I think it's eventually a dwindling company, right? Like over time, if it's not focusing on this product, I'm in this new zone, Scott, of like, the reason things fail is because products suck. Well, the 45 to 95 was the brand era, but digital unlock around product is a new bomb again. It sounds boring, but it's product. I'm like, if Tesla made great cars, people would still buy them even though he's a toad.
44:31And they don't advertise. Right. I really do think that. I'm thinking to myself, I use Amazon and I don't want to use it because I'm really irritated by Jeff Bezos. But it's a great product and it's really hard. Like, I think if it gets the ball off of - How do you think I feel using Starlink to call you on FaceTime? I know. I know. I think it's just really, I think the problems that this will suffer as a product because of all this mishigash. And so I don't feel kids talk. I mean, they're going to move on to the next thing. That's what I feel like. And eventually they'll come up with some convoluted way where Mark Andreessen gets even richer than he already is and more toxic.
45:06And it won't make any sense and it won't protect Americans better. And China will continue to dominate. I mean, just to me, all of this has been a gimme to China. Just one big gimme to a government that does not want us to dominate. So as it relates to TikTok, I just don't think we would ever let CBS, NBC, and ABC be owned by the Kremlin in the 60s. I think it's fucking insane to have TikTok. I think we're raising a generation of civic, military, and business leaders who hate America. 50 % of people our age feel good about America, 1 in 10 young people. And I might even be wrong, but just from a trade symmetry standpoint, there are no media companies in China, and we can't afford to have this.
45:51The average 14-year-old boy in America is spending 17 hours on a media platform controlled by the CCP. It's just not a good idea. So it should be banned. Now, the second thing, and this goes back to the notion that you can't outrun multiple contraction, which we're about to incur the mother of all multiple contraction, is remember when Trump hated TikTok? And then remember when President Biden had a bipartisan law passed and none of it fucking means anything anymore. Because if one of the largest donors of the Trump campaign, Jeffrey Yass, who also happens to be an investor in TikTok and a bunch of crypto bros and Silicon Valley bros who are also investors, he can do all this bullshit.
46:33I'm in, I'm out. I'm your girlfriend. I'm not your girlfriend. I want to break up. I don't want to break up. Why would anyone take us seriously? Why would, China is like, yeah, fine. China's not going to back down to the U.S. unless they can figure out a way, unless they have all sorts of assets, which is Latin for spies, within Oracle, and they feel like they can keep the asset in the U.S. as an espionage and propaganda tool and have their cake and eat it too. They're just going to play slowball because this guy will change his mind next week. Or maybe General Atlantic Partners or Sequoia Capital, who would have sex with their sisters for a nickel, will put pressure on Trump and off her.
47:17What do you want now? I knew you'd bring in White Lotus, but go ahead. Well, that's unfair. They'd have they'd fuck their mothers for a nickel. I think that's more accurate. Anyways, these folks, these folks now run the White House. And so this is, TikTok just sort of represents, one, a national security threat that we just don't take seriously because our kids like it and we don't understand it. I remember when you took me to the White House, I remember thinking, and they were like, oh, we're not on TikTok. I'm like, that's a bad idea. You don't realize what's going on. You don't see what's happening to our kids here.
47:53your kid can see a beheading and then a dance video and then something showing, you know, viewpoints on Hamas and Israel or viewpoints, a bunch of people like, I'm even part of it. I see my angriest videos get the most play on TikTok. They get dialed up and that's not just TikTok, it's everything else. But why on earth, why on earth would we allow missiles to be planted on an island, Cuba, 60 miles offshore, the U.S. coast, even if they claim they will never use them against us. Like, no, we're just not going to put up with that. And then again, it's the inconsistency that's going to take our prosperity now.
48:30Does it matter? Because we're giving them advantage in this tariff thing. Now we've given them an even bigger thing. Oh, biggest winner here. Winner. Biggest winner is China. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. China, China, China. And they were hands down. We're losing. They were really losing. Biggest winner out of all this, hands down. All of a sudden, Canada's like, Chinese are mining up all the real estate in Vancouver. This is what But every Chinese diplomat and businessman is working. I've done a lot of business in China. They're all working overtime, and they're going to European capitals.
49:02They're going everywhere and saying, they may say, you may not agree with us, but you know what? We're good partners. Lifeline for China. This has been such a gift to China. Anyway, that's our feelings. It's an unbelievable gift to Vice President Xi. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for wins and fails.
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51:35Okay, Scott, we're going to do wins and fails. I think I shall go first. I think win. I really enjoy. I love a protest. I thought these hands-off protests were everywhere. Every city was full. I love seeing them in Turkey. I love like people turning out. I don't know if they work or not, but DC and New York, 100 ,000 attendees each. They were, Amanda went down. I did not. And like average people, it was not like the professional protesters that you might see. Themes were administration's attacks on social security, the layoffs, deportations, Elon Musk, of course. I love the signs. They make me laugh.
52:12If Ikea has better cabinets, which they really do. Wisconsin hates Elon so much it could be one of his kids. Abort unwanted presidencies. We're all the couch now. Trump, of course, spent the weekend golfing. I mean, just the visuals couldn't be any better. And I kind of just like it. It gets people in bold. And I don't know if protests matter, but this one had a real momentum feel, which is nice. And we'll see if that matters or not. But for the fail, so obvious, 60 Minutes, which is, you know, people talk about the decline of traditional media. People who do real reporting, really, we owe them a debt of gratitude.
52:52They did a story on Sunday on Venezuelan migrants who got deported to prison in El Salvador. And their reporting found no criminal records for 75 % of those migrants. These people were taken off the street, many of them legally here, and put in a prison. It's literally like a, you know, a movie. It's a movie. It feels like a movie. This is so cruel. And the people who are doing this to people and putting people in prison without any criminal record and sending them to another country they're not even from, I hope they go to jail themselves at some point and pretending they can't take them back.
53:29This is grotesque in every single way. Grotesque. So it's like such an embarrassment. And people aren't paying attention because of all this stuff about the tariffs and the stock market. But boy, what a human rights disaster for us, our country. We have no ability to say we're a good people if we're doing things like that. I like both of those. I'm an ageist. I think all of these old people need to go away. I think that Biden's inability and the people around him, their lack of backbone to acknowledge that biology always wins is if we've decided the prefrontal cortex of a 34 year old is too immature to have that person have access to nuclear weapons.
54:15And for God's sakes, an 80-year-old shouldn't have their finger on the button. And my win is the market is responding. A Democrat, I think it's Saikat Chakrabarty, who was the comms director for 35-year-old former boss, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has decided that he's going to challenge Rep. Nancy Pelosi, or he did challenge her. for Chakrabarty, 39-year-old software engineer turned political operative. I like seeing young people rising to the challenge. In Los Angeles, 37-year-old Jake Rakoff announced last week that he was running for the seat of his former boss, Rep. Brad Sherman, who's 70.
55:00Representative Sherman, you served your country well. Now collect a gold watch and go play fucking golf. You're too old. In Michigan, State Senator Mallory McMorrow, 38, launched a bid for a state's open U.S. Senate seat by talking about her experiences as a millennial. I mean, there are young people stepping up here. I saw her at MSNBC. I was on Jen Psaki's show on Sunday, and I ran into Mallory. She's really impressive. Very impressive. And in Illinois, Kat Abuguzala. That's the problem with all these young names. Oh, no. Names are too fucking complicated. Change your name to, like, Smith. And we're out.
55:34Change your name to Smith. You'll get more votes. You'll get more votes. Anyways, Kat, I like that. That's what I'm going to call her, Rep Kat. Rep Jan Schakowsky. Oh, my God. Really? You're not doing this. But go ahead. Oh, wait. She's running for the seat of Rep Jan Schakowsky, who is 80. Go home. She's the influencer. Yeah. Go home, Rep Jan Schakowsky. 80. Good congressperson, let me say, for many years. Go home. Yeah, I agree. Okay, so. I'm out of here. in 10 years. Senator Schumer, you're 74. Someone this weekend offered me 10 million bucks if I put in 10 million to run for president. I'm like, I'm too fucking old.
56:17You need someone who's going to work 19. Bill Clinton slept five hours a night for eight years. All right. Okay. So fail. Old people. Old people. Okay. We need my win is young people stepping up to the plate. If you're, And I always like to put an accent behind a word. If you're a young, moderate running against someone who just is only there because they're a fucking incumbent, email me, scottatstern.nyu, and I'm in. I'm in for the maximum campaign contribution. I'm voting for youth and new ideas and vigor. Okay, my fail is the following. On Thursday and Friday, I lost, I don't know, somewhere between six and eight million dollars.
57:06I got some of it back because I shorted AI stocks, so I probably lost four to five million bucks. That's the bad news. The good news is I am so blessed and privileged because of the underpinnings of an America that offers prosperity, offers opportunities to the children of single immigrant mothers who lived and died a secretary, rule of law, great entrepreneurial culture. It really doesn't matter. I'm fine. I know it matters to a lot of people. I'm knowing flexing and bragging about my wealth, but it does have a point. My disappointment is that, okay, we now live in a nation where we've decided to side with autocrats, not democracies pushing back on autocrats.
57:50We now live in a nation where it's possible that you can go to jail if you don't narc on someone who is planning to get an abortion. We live in a country where it is feasible where a 14-year-old who is raped has to carry her child to term. We live in a country where a woman could die of sepsis in an emergency room parking lot because she's bleeding out, because the medical professionals are too scared to perform a necessary abortion. We live in a country where we now have a president who's opened a Swiss banking account where anyone can put money in in exchange for political favors and not have to disclose it.
58:33That is the country we are in. And here's what money has done. You left out law firms, but go ahead. And we can intimidate law firms into agreeing, into agreeing not to represent the president's adversaries. I mean, that's the whole point of it. That's the whole fucking point of our legal system. Paul Weiss, go fuck yourself. Jesus Christ. Don't call yourself. You should never call yourself an American law firm. Your headquarters is fucking Moscow meets Mar-a-Lago. What cowards. And by the way, guest speaker, Bob Iger. That's the country we're in. and where do people turn up? Where do people decide that's it?
59:17We have to go to Mar-a-Lago is when the markets are down 10%. Well, guess what? That's about number 30 on my fucking list of what terrible things have happened to this country. So look, I'll take it. I'll take it. But when it's all about the markets and not about people's rights, not about humanity, not about coarseness and cruelty, not about the whole point of a constitution, the whole point of a democracy is you protect the lower 50. You and I are going to be just fine. And I understand your concerns about your family. I think those are real concerns. The majority of people in the top 1%, we're going to be fine.
1:00:00The whole point of a constitution and a democracy is you have to protect the bottom 50. And what is all of a sudden the red line? The NASDAQ is down. That's what has people riled. That's the red line. That's the red line. Right? That's the red line. Yep. Yep. All right. We're okay with murderous autocrats and 14-year-olds carrying babies to term. But if the NASDAQ goes down, that's too much. You know what? On Thursday and Friday, and the market's going down, I could give a flying fuck. I'll go, I'll take the markets down another 10%. Start protecting the lower 50. I love this, Scott. The lesbian from San Francisco, Scott Galloway, I give you people.
1:00:43All right, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. I love your verb, Scott. Elsewhere in the Scott and Kara universe, this week I spoke with Jeff Lawson, owner of The Onion. Oh, what a great guy this guy is in terms of what he's done there. Let's listen to a clip. We have worked to create an environment where people will come to defend us. Right. In a way that they don't necessarily come to defend the New York Times. Because it's believed the New York Times can defend itself.
1:01:15It's a big organization. The Little Old Onion, when you go after satire, and it shows just how small, I'm going to make a penis joke, just how small your penis is when you come after satire. I think people rise up and they say, that's enough. Like, we're going to defend this little thing called The Onion because satire is highly protected speech. And The Onion is a beloved brand and a beloved publication. Anyway, really interesting guy. He's, you know, he's trying to keep it. I love The Onion. I think they do a great job. And he sort of saved it in a lot of ways. Anyway, his name is Jeff Lawson.
1:01:46It was great. And he loves Scott Galloway. So he had to make one penis joke. I love The Onion. Yeah, I know. He's like. The hard part, though, is occasionally I read The Onion. I'm like, is that actual news today? I know. Exactly. He's doing all kinds of cool things. And he really did save it in a lot of ways. Just a small little contribution. He's a billionaire, too. He was at Twilio. He had a big activist investor thing, sort of toss him out. But really interesting guy. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday.
1:02:20Scott, read us out and be very indignant. I like it. Today's show is produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin and Kate Gallagher. Ernie Irtaud entered into this episode. Julian Villard edited the video. Thanks also to Drew Burrows, Ms. Severo, and Dan Shulon. Mishak Karwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
1:02:52Don't you often see someone and think, what's their story? What's their life? How did he end up on a park bench without shoes, feeding pigeons and speaking to himself? University of Chicago. I was on a college tour, Kara.
From the publisher
Kara and Scott discuss the markets' wild ride thanks to Trump's tariffs, China's retaliation plans, and Howard Lutnick's theory about a manufacturing resurgence coming to the United States. Then, a deeper dive into some of the tariff winners (Warren Buffett), and losers (Big Tech), and some advice for panicked investors. Plus, the TikTok deadline gets extended yet again.
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